Carnival (CCL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $28.87B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 21.99M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 14.8
• Beta (1Y): 1.88
• Revenue Growth: 12.66%
• EPS Growth: 403.58%
• Country: US
• Employees: 115,000
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 75
• Industry: Leisure
• EPS (TTM): 0.13
• Shares Outstanding: 1,166,606,900
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 23,507,748
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 21,987,706
• PEG Ratio: 0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.88
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 13.23
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.86
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.55
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.53
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 2.27
• 1Y Price Target: $27.19
• Price Target Upside: 22.20% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 18

• Rating: 75 Outperform
• Price Target: $25.00 ▲( 12.36% Upside)

Carnival's overall stock score reflects strong financial recovery and positive earnings outlook, bolstered by successful refinancing and technical momentum. High leverage and macroeconomic uncertainties are key risks.

Positive Factors

Booking trends

Booking trends resilient despite macro economic concerns, with CCL in a strong booked position.

Earnings

CCL recorded solid Q1 results with an EBITDA increase of 38% YoY, aided by a net yield increase of +7.3% YoY.

Market valuation

Despite a 43% year-to-date gain, CCL is still considered undervalued, with potential for further gains.

Negative Factors

Recession risk

Current market prices for CCL nearly reflect a recession scenario, indicating potential risk if a recession occurs.

Revenue risk

In deeper downturn scenarios, Carnival Corporation's revenue per passenger is expected to decline significantly.

Tax regulation

The prospect of losing tax-exempt status is a concern for the cruise industry and is viewed as a potential risk.

Carnival Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL) is one of the world's largest leisure travel companies and operates a portfolio of leading cruise lines including Carnival Cruise Line, Princess Cruises, Holland America Line, and several others. The company offers a wide range of vacation and travel experiences to over a hundred destinations worldwide, catering to diverse customer preferences with its extensive fleet of ships. Carnival operates in the global tourism sector, providing all-inclusive cruise experiences that encompass accommodations, meals, entertainment, and various onboard activities.

How the Company Makes Money

Carnival Corporation generates revenue primarily through ticket sales for its cruise voyages, which include accommodations, meals, and basic onboard amenities. Additional revenue streams come from onboard spending by passengers, such as purchases at specialty restaurants, bars, casinos, spas, and retail outlets, as well as shore excursions and other services. Carnival also earns income from travel and vacation-related services, including port and terminal operations. The company's revenue is influenced by factors such as fleet size, occupancy rates, ticket pricing, and the level of onboard spending. Strategic partnerships with travel agencies and marketing alliances also play a role in reaching wider customer bases and enhancing revenue streams.

Carnival Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Carnival's financial performance shows a strong recovery with significant revenue growth and improved profit margins. However, the high debt-to-equity ratio and historical financial volatility present risks. The company is generating robust cash flows, but the need for debt management remains critical.

Income Statement

Carnival's income statement shows a strong recovery, with a notable revenue growth of 17.4% from 2023 to 2024 and continued growth into TTM. The gross profit margin in TTM is 38.2%, and the net profit margin is 8.1%, indicating improved profitability. However, the past years of negative net income and operating losses during the pandemic are still a concern.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a high debt-to-equity ratio of 3.09 in TTM, a significant risk. However, the stabilization of stockholders' equity at $9.18 billion and an equity ratio of 19.3% show some improvement. Carnival's high leverage remains a challenge, necessitating careful debt management.

Cash Flow

Carnival's cash flow statements indicate robust cash generation with operating cash flow of $5.08 billion in TTM and a free cash flow growth of 53.0% from 2023 to 2024. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 2.47 suggests effective cash conversion, but historical negative free cash flow years underline potential vulnerabilities.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
25.43B	25.02B	21.59B	12.17B	1.91B	5.59B
	Gross Profit
9.72B	9.38B	7.28B	412.00M	-2.75B	-2.65B
	EBIT
3.84B	3.57B	1.96B	-4.38B	-7.09B	-8.87B
	EBITDA
6.31B	6.23B	4.37B	-2.20B	-5.69B	-7.12B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
2.05B	1.92B	-74.00M	-6.09B	-9.50B	-10.24B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
833.00M	1.21B	2.42B	4.03B	9.14B	9.51B
	Total Assets
48.53B	49.06B	49.12B	51.70B	53.34B	53.59B
	Total Debt
28.39B	28.88B	31.89B	35.88B	34.61B	28.38B
	Net Debt
27.56B	27.67B	29.48B	31.85B	25.67B	18.87B
	Total Liabilities
39.35B	39.81B	42.24B	44.64B	41.20B	33.04B
	Stockholders Equity
9.18B	9.25B	6.88B	7.06B	12.14B	20.55B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
1.99B	1.30B	997.00M	-6.61B	-7.72B	-9.92B
	Operating Cash Flow
5.08B	5.92B	4.28B	-1.67B	-4.11B	-6.30B
	Investing Cash Flow
-2.98B	-4.54B	-2.81B	-4.77B	-3.54B	-3.24B
	Financing Cash Flow
-3.51B	-2.58B	-5.09B	3.58B	6.95B	18.65B

Carnival Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 22.25
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CCL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 22.25 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 21.03, above the 50-day MA of 19.85, and above the 200-day MA of 21.50, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.95 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.49 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 46.74 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CCL.

Carnival Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CCL	75 Outperform	$28.87B	14.82	25.87%	―	12.66%	403.58%
OSW	74 Outperform	$1.90B	29.14	12.80%	0.65%	9.80%	89.42%
CUK	72 Outperform	$29.06B	13.38	25.87%	―	12.66%	403.58%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$6.85B	11.30	2.81%	3.94%	2.64%	-22.14%

Carnival Corporate Events

Carnival Completes $1 Billion Senior Notes Offering

On May 21, 2025, Carnival Corporation closed a private offering of $1.0 billion in senior unsecured notes due 2031, with an interest rate of 5.875%. The proceeds will be used to redeem $993 million of the company’s 7.625% senior unsecured notes due 2026, continuing its strategy to reduce interest expenses and manage future debt maturities. This transaction is expected to reduce net interest expenses by over $20 million through the maturity date of the 2026 notes. The notes are guaranteed by Carnival plc and certain subsidiaries and include investment-grade covenants, offering a strategic advantage in managing the company’s financial obligations.

The most recent analyst rating on (CCL) stock is a Hold with a $21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnival stock, see the CCL Stock Forecast page.

Carnival Completes $1 Billion Senior Notes Offering

On May 21, 2025, Carnival Corporation closed a private offering of $1.0 billion in senior unsecured notes due 2031, with a 5.875% interest rate. The proceeds will be used to redeem $993 million of the company’s 7.625% senior unsecured notes due 2026, continuing its strategy to reduce interest expenses and manage debt maturities. The transaction is expected to save over $20 million in net interest expenses by the maturity date of the 2026 notes. The notes are guaranteed by Carnival plc and certain subsidiaries and include investment-grade covenants.

The most recent analyst rating on (CCL) stock is a Hold with a $21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnival stock, see the CCL Stock Forecast page.

Carnival Reduces Debt with $1 Billion Note Offering

On February 28, 2025, Carnival Corporation closed a private offering of $1.0 billion in senior unsecured notes with a 5.750% interest rate due in 2030. The proceeds, along with cash on hand, were used to redeem $1.0 billion of higher-interest notes, reducing the company’s interest expense by over 4.5% and saving approximately $45 million annually. This strategic move is part of Carnival’s ongoing efforts to manage its debt and reduce financial costs, potentially strengthening its financial position and operational flexibility.

Carnival Reduces Interest Costs with New Debt Offering

On February 28, 2025, Carnival Corporation closed a private offering of $1.0 billion in senior unsecured notes with a 5.750% interest rate, maturing in 2030. The proceeds were used to redeem existing 10.500% senior unsecured notes, reducing the company’s interest expense by over 4.5%, which is expected to lower annual interest costs by approximately $45 million. This strategic financial maneuver is part of Carnival’s ongoing efforts to manage debt and reduce interest expenses, potentially improving its financial health and operational flexibility.