Carnival (CCL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $41.04B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 16.65M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 17.1
• Beta (1Y): 1.84
• Revenue Growth: 10.81%
• EPS Growth: 175.74%
• Country: US
• Employees: 115,000
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 80
• Industry: Leisure
• EPS (TTM): 0.35
• Shares Outstanding: 1,167,404,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 15,290,648
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 16,647,225
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.44
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.27
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.79
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 8.74
• 1Y Price Target: $33.15
• Price Target Upside: 5.00% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 15

• Rating: 77 Outperform
• Price Target: $37.00 ▲(17.20% Upside)

Carnival's strong earnings performance and technical momentum are the most significant factors driving its stock score. The company's strategic initiatives and successful refinancing efforts further support a positive outlook. However, high leverage and potential overbought technical indicators pose risks that need monitoring.

Positive Factors

Consumer Demand

CCL continues to benefit from strong consumer demand, disciplined fleet and capacity strategies, exclusive destination development, operational efficiencies, aggressive deleveraging, sustainability investments, and enhanced marketing, all driving ongoing revenue and cash flow growth and further shareholder value creation.

Financial Performance

CCL reported 2Q adjusted EPS of $0.35 vs. guidance $0.22, consensus $0.24, and our $0.25.

Stock List Inclusion

The company has been added to the Citi Focus List, indicating it is seen as the best stock in the coverage.

Negative Factors

Geopolitical and Economic Uncertainty

Management acknowledged that 2025 could have been a better year were it not for the volatility surrounding tariff announcements.

Research Objectivity Concerns

J.P. Morgan may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of its research report on Carnival Corporation.

Carnival Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Carnival Corporation & plc is a global cruise company and one of the largest leisure travel companies in the world. It operates a fleet of over 100 ships across various brands, including Carnival Cruise Line, Princess Cruises, Holland America Line, and Costa Cruises. The company offers a range of cruise experiences, catering to diverse customer preferences and budgets, and emphasizes entertainment, dining, and excursions as core elements of its service offerings.

How the Company Makes Money

Carnival generates revenue primarily through the sale of cruise tickets, which account for a significant portion of its earnings. In addition to ticket sales, the company earns substantial income from onboard spending, which includes revenue from dining, beverages, excursions, and retail purchases made by guests during their cruises. Another key revenue stream comes from vacation packages that combine cruise experiences with land-based travel elements. Furthermore, Carnival benefits from partnerships with various travel agencies and tour operators, which help to drive bookings and expand its market reach. The company also engages in strategic marketing and promotional campaigns to attract customers and enhance brand visibility, contributing to its overall revenue growth.

Carnival Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Carnival has shown notable recovery post-pandemic with improved revenue growth, profit margins, and strong cash flow metrics. However, high leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.86 and past negative cash flows represent potential risks. The financial health is on an improving trend but requires close monitoring of debt levels and operational efficiencies.

Income Statement

Carnival's TTM revenue increased with a strong revenue growth rate from the previous year. The company shows a solid gross profit margin of 39.2% and a net profit margin of 9.7%, reflecting improved profitability from the previous losses. However, the EBIT margin at 16.2% and EBITDA margin at 26.0% indicate room for operational efficiency improvements.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio of 2.86 indicates relatively high leverage, which poses a risk in economic downturns. The return on equity is 25.2%, showing effective utilization of shareholder funds. However, the equity ratio of 19.6% suggests a lower proportion of assets financed by equity, indicating financial vulnerability.

Cash Flow

Carnival's free cash flow improved significantly, with a growth rate of 116.3%, indicating better cash management. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 2.15 and free cash flow to net income ratio of 1.11 suggest strong cash generation relative to earnings. However, past negative cash flows remain a concern that needs continued attention.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	25.97B	25.02B	21.59B	12.17B	1.91B	5.59B
Gross Profit	10.18B	9.38B	7.28B	412.00M	-2.75B	-2.65B
EBITDA	6.75B	6.23B	4.37B	-2.20B	-5.69B	-7.12B
Net Income	2.52B	1.92B	-74.00M	-6.09B	-9.50B	-10.24B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	51.16B	49.06B	49.12B	51.70B	53.34B	53.59B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.15B	1.21B	2.42B	4.03B	9.14B	9.51B
Total Debt	28.65B	28.88B	31.89B	35.88B	34.61B	28.38B
Total Liabilities	41.16B	39.81B	42.24B	44.64B	41.20B	33.04B
Stockholders Equity	10.01B	9.25B	6.88B	7.06B	12.14B	20.55B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	2.81B	1.30B	997.00M	-6.61B	-7.72B	-9.92B
Operating Cash Flow	5.43B	5.92B	4.28B	-1.67B	-4.11B	-6.30B
Investing Cash Flow	-2.34B	-4.54B	-2.81B	-4.77B	-3.54B	-3.24B
Financing Cash Flow	-2.61B	-2.58B	-5.09B	3.58B	6.95B	18.65B

Carnival Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 31.57
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CCL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 31.57 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 30.92, above the 50-day MA of 29.97, and above the 200-day MA of 24.84, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.66 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 59.07 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 46.04 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CCL.

Carnival Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CCL	77 Outperform	$41.04B	17.11	30.02%	―	10.81%	175.74%
CUK	73 Outperform	$41.01B	15.64	30.02%	―	10.81%	175.74%
OSW	69 Neutral	$2.27B	32.58	13.16%	0.73%	8.51%	31.24%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.02B	12.77	-0.74%	3.01%	1.30%	-13.03%

Carnival Corporate Events

Carnival Implements New Executive Compensation Agreements

On August 6, 2025, Carnival Corporation entered into compensation protection and restrictive covenants agreements with its key executives, including the CEO and CFO. These agreements outline severance terms and restrictive covenants in the event of termination, impacting the company’s executive management structure and potentially influencing stakeholder confidence.

Carnival Implements New Executive Compensation Agreements

On August 6, 2025, Carnival Corporation entered into compensation protection and restrictive covenants agreements with its Named Executive Officers, including the CEO, CFO, Chief Human Resources Officer, and General Counsel. These agreements outline severance packages and include confidentiality, non-competition, non-disparagement, and non-solicitation covenants, impacting the company’s executive management structure and potentially its operational stability.

Carnival Closes $3 Billion Senior Notes Offering

On July 16, 2025, Carnival Corporation closed a private offering of $3.0 billion in senior unsecured notes due 2032, with a 5.75% interest rate. The proceeds will be used to repay borrowings under its senior secured term loan facility and to redeem $2.4 billion of senior unsecured notes due 2027. This transaction is part of Carnival’s strategy to deleverage and manage future debt maturities, with the company having refinanced nearly $11 billion of debt and prepaid $1.1 billion of debt this year. The notes are guaranteed by Carnival plc and certain subsidiaries, and they include covenants typical of investment-grade debt.

Carnival Closes $3 Billion Senior Notes Offering

On July 16, 2025, Carnival Corporation closed a private offering of $3.0 billion in senior unsecured notes due 2032, with a 5.75% interest rate. The proceeds will be used to repay a senior secured term loan maturing in 2028 and redeem $2.4 billion of senior unsecured notes due 2027. This move is part of Carnival’s strategy to deleverage, manage future debt maturities, and reduce secured debt, continuing its path towards investment-grade credit.

Carnival Closes €1 Billion Senior Notes Offering

On July 7, 2025, Carnival plc successfully closed a private offering of €1.0 billion in senior unsecured notes due 2031, with an interest rate of 4.125% per year. The proceeds from this offering will be used to repay existing borrowings under Carnival Corporation’s senior secured term loan facilities maturing in 2027 and 2028. This transaction is part of Carnival’s strategy to deleverage, reduce interest expenses, and simplify its capital structure, moving closer to achieving an investment-grade credit rating.

Carnival Closes €1 Billion Senior Notes Offering

On July 7, 2025, Carnival plc closed a private offering of €1.0 billion in senior unsecured notes due 2031, with an interest rate of 4.125% per year. The proceeds will be used to repay borrowings under senior secured term loan facilities maturing in 2027 and 2028. This transaction is part of Carnival’s strategy to deleverage, reduce interest expenses, and simplify its capital structure. The notes are guaranteed by Carnival Corporation and certain subsidiaries, and were offered to qualified institutional buyers and non-U.S. investors. This move is seen as a step towards achieving an investment-grade credit rating, reflecting Carnival’s ongoing efforts to strengthen its financial position.

Carnival Secures $4.5 Billion Credit Facility

On June 13, 2025, Carnival Corporation and Carnival plc announced the successful arrangement of a new $4.5 billion multi-currency revolving credit facility, replacing the existing facility of Carnival Holdings (Bermuda) II Limited. This new agreement, which matures in 2030, includes an accordion feature for up to $1.0 billion of additional commitments and is expected to enhance the company’s liquidity, aiding in debt reduction efforts. The facility is unsecured and guaranteed by the same subsidiaries that guarantee the company’s senior secured term loan facilities, reflecting confidence in Carnival’s continued performance and strong banking relationships.

Carnival Secures $4.5 Billion Credit Facility

On June 13, 2025, Carnival Corporation and Carnival plc announced the successful arrangement of a new $4.5 billion multi-currency revolving credit facility, replacing the existing facility. This new agreement, which matures in June 2030, includes an accordion feature for additional commitments and reflects confidence in Carnival’s financial performance and banking relationships. The new facility is unsecured and guaranteed by the same subsidiaries that back the company’s senior secured term loan facilities, enhancing liquidity and supporting debt reduction efforts.