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Carnival (CCL)
NYSE:CCL
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Carnival (CCL) AI Stock Analysis

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CCL

Carnival

(NYSE:CCL)

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Outperform 71 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
$32.00
▲(10.69% Upside)
Carnival's strong financial recovery and positive earnings call are the most significant factors driving its score. However, bearish technical indicators and high leverage pose risks. The stock's moderate valuation and lack of dividend yield also impact its overall attractiveness.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Carnival's strong revenue growth reflects effective operational execution and market demand, indicating robust business health and potential for sustained expansion.
Improved Leverage and Returns
Improved leverage and returns suggest enhanced financial stability and operational efficiency, positioning Carnival for future growth and shareholder value creation.
Positive Booking Trends
Strong booking trends at higher prices indicate sustained demand and pricing power, which can drive future revenue growth and profitability.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
High leverage can limit financial flexibility and increase risk, potentially impacting Carnival's ability to invest in growth opportunities or weather economic downturns.
Increased Net Interest Expense
Rising interest expenses can erode profitability and cash flow, posing a challenge to Carnival's financial health and ability to manage debt effectively.
Cost Headwinds
Upcoming cost headwinds could pressure margins and profitability, requiring strategic cost management to maintain financial performance.

Carnival (CCL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Carnival Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCarnival Corporation & plc is a global cruise company and one of the largest leisure travel companies in the world. It operates a fleet of over 100 ships across various brands, including Carnival Cruise Line, Princess Cruises, Holland America Line, and Costa Cruises. The company offers a range of cruise experiences, catering to diverse customer preferences and budgets, and emphasizes entertainment, dining, and excursions as core elements of its service offerings.
How the Company Makes MoneyCarnival generates revenue primarily through the sale of cruise tickets, which account for a significant portion of its earnings. In addition to ticket sales, the company earns substantial income from onboard spending, which includes revenue from dining, beverages, excursions, and retail purchases made by guests during their cruises. Another key revenue stream comes from vacation packages that combine cruise experiences with land-based travel elements. Furthermore, Carnival benefits from partnerships with various travel agencies and tour operators, which help to drive bookings and expand its market reach. The company also engages in strategic marketing and promotional campaigns to attract customers and enhance brand visibility, contributing to its overall revenue growth.

Carnival Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Passenger Cruise Days
Passenger Cruise Days
Measures the total number of days passengers spend on cruises, providing insight into overall customer engagement and cruise popularity.
Chart InsightsPassenger Cruise Days have shown a strong recovery post-pandemic, with consistent growth through 2025. This aligns with Carnival's record financial performance, driven by strategic pricing and booking strategies. The company's achievement of its 2026 financial targets ahead of schedule and its focus on new destinations and fleet upgrades suggest continued momentum. However, geopolitical uncertainties and rising cruise costs could pose challenges. The introduction of a new loyalty program is a strategic move to enhance customer engagement, despite its short-term accounting impacts.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Carnival Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Sep 29, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Dec 19, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call was predominantly positive, with record-breaking financial results, strong yield growth, and successful new initiatives like Celebration Key. Despite some cost and interest expense challenges, the company's strong performance and positive future booking trends outweigh the negatives.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record-Breaking Financial Performance
Achieved an all-time high net income of $2 billion, surpassing pre-pause benchmarks by nearly 10% with strong operational execution.
Strong Yield and Revenue Growth
Yields increased 4.6% on a same ship basis, outperforming guidance due to strength in close-in demand and onboard spending.
Improved Leverage and Returns
Leverage reduced to 3.6 times net debt to EBITDA, with a 13% ROIC, the first time since 2007 that returns have reached the teens.
Successful Celebration Key Launch
Celebration Key opened to rave reviews, with nearly half a million guests visiting since its opening, and is meeting investment return expectations.
Positive Booking Trends
Booking trends have improved, with nearly half of 2026 already booked at higher prices, and 2027 bookings off to a record start.
Negative Updates
Increased Net Interest Expense
Experienced nearly a 600% increase in net interest expense compared to 2019, impacting overall financials.
Cost Headwinds for 2026
Anticipating a 200 basis point headwind from the new loyalty program, destination developments, and increased dry dock expenses.
Company Guidance
During the Carnival Corporation & plc Q3 2025 earnings call, the company reported impressive financial results with a record net income of $2 billion, representing a nearly 10% increase over their pre-pause benchmark. This was achieved despite a significant 600% rise in net interest expenses since 2019. Operating income and EBITDA also reached their highest levels in almost two decades, even with a 2.5% reduction in capacity compared to the previous year. Yields rose by 4.6% on a same-ship basis, surpassing guidance, while unit costs improved by 1.5 points due to rigorous cost discipline. Consequently, the company raised its full-year guidance for the third time in 2025, reporting a return on invested capital (ROIC) of 13% over the past twelve months, marking the first instance of achieving double-digit returns since 2007. The net debt to EBITDA ratio improved to 3.6 times, nearing investment-grade leverage metrics, enabling the company to focus on deleveraging and returning capital to shareholders. The company also highlighted strong booking trends for 2026, with nearly half of the year already booked at higher prices, and notable successes from their new Celebration Key destination, which is expected to host 2.8 million guests next year.

Carnival Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Carnival has shown a strong recovery with improved revenue, profitability, and cash flow metrics. However, high leverage and the need for continued cash flow management highlight potential risks. The financial health is improving but requires monitoring of debt levels and operational efficiencies.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Carnival's TTM revenue increased with a strong revenue growth rate from the previous year. The company shows a solid gross profit margin of 39.2% and a net profit margin of 9.7%, reflecting improved profitability from the previous losses. However, the EBIT margin at 16.2% and EBITDA margin at 26.0% indicate room for operational efficiency improvements.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The company's debt-to-equity ratio of 2.86 indicates relatively high leverage, which poses a risk in economic downturns. The return on equity is 25.2%, showing effective utilization of shareholder funds. However, the equity ratio of 19.6% suggests a lower proportion of assets financed by equity, indicating financial vulnerability.
Cash Flow
78
Positive
Carnival's free cash flow improved significantly, with a growth rate of 116.3%, indicating better cash management. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 2.15 and free cash flow to net income ratio of 1.11 suggest strong cash generation relative to earnings. However, past negative cash flows remain a concern that needs continued attention.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue26.23B25.02B21.59B12.17B1.91B5.59B
Gross Profit10.36B9.38B7.28B412.00M-2.75B-2.65B
EBITDA6.79B6.23B4.37B-2.20B-5.69B-7.12B
Net Income2.64B1.92B-74.00M-6.09B-9.50B-10.24B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets49.87B49.06B49.12B51.70B53.34B53.59B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments1.76B1.21B2.42B4.03B9.14B9.51B
Total Debt27.86B28.88B31.89B35.88B34.61B28.38B
Total Liabilities37.94B39.81B42.24B44.64B41.20B33.04B
Stockholders Equity11.93B9.25B6.88B7.06B12.14B20.55B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow2.91B1.30B997.00M-6.61B-7.72B-9.92B
Operating Cash Flow5.61B5.92B4.28B-1.67B-4.11B-6.30B
Investing Cash Flow-2.39B-4.54B-2.81B-4.77B-3.54B-3.24B
Financing Cash Flow-2.99B-2.58B-5.09B3.58B6.95B18.65B

Carnival Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price28.91
Price Trends
50DMA
30.47
Negative
100DMA
27.83
Positive
200DMA
25.23
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.23
Positive
RSI
34.22
Neutral
STOCH
20.94
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CCL, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 28.91 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 31.00, below the 50-day MA of 30.47, and above the 200-day MA of 25.23, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.23 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 34.22 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 20.94 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for CCL.

Carnival Risk Analysis

Carnival disclosed 14 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Carnival reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Carnival Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
73
Outperform
$38.22B13.7722.15%7.14%63.17%
71
Outperform
$38.16B15.3425.74%7.14%63.17%
69
Neutral
$2.22B31.8012.98%0.76%8.51%31.24%
61
Neutral
$18.38B12.79-2.54%3.03%1.52%-15.83%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
CCL
Carnival
28.91
11.20
63.24%
CUK
Carnival
26.44
10.47
65.56%
OSW
OneSpaWorld Holdings
21.14
4.88
30.01%

Carnival Corporate Events

Executive/Board Changes
Carnival Implements New Executive Compensation Agreements
Neutral
Aug 8, 2025

On August 6, 2025, Carnival Corporation entered into compensation protection and restrictive covenants agreements with its key executives, including the CEO and CFO. These agreements outline severance terms and restrictive covenants in the event of termination, impacting the company’s executive management structure and potentially influencing stakeholder confidence.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Carnival Implements New Executive Compensation Agreements
Neutral
Aug 8, 2025

On August 6, 2025, Carnival Corporation entered into compensation protection and restrictive covenants agreements with its Named Executive Officers, including the CEO, CFO, Chief Human Resources Officer, and General Counsel. These agreements outline severance packages and include confidentiality, non-competition, non-disparagement, and non-solicitation covenants, impacting the company’s executive management structure and potentially its operational stability.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Carnival Closes $3 Billion Senior Notes Offering
Neutral
Jul 16, 2025

On July 16, 2025, Carnival Corporation closed a private offering of $3.0 billion in senior unsecured notes due 2032, with a 5.75% interest rate. The proceeds will be used to repay borrowings under its senior secured term loan facility and to redeem $2.4 billion of senior unsecured notes due 2027. This transaction is part of Carnival’s strategy to deleverage and manage future debt maturities, with the company having refinanced nearly $11 billion of debt and prepaid $1.1 billion of debt this year. The notes are guaranteed by Carnival plc and certain subsidiaries, and they include covenants typical of investment-grade debt.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Carnival Closes $3 Billion Senior Notes Offering
Positive
Jul 16, 2025

On July 16, 2025, Carnival Corporation closed a private offering of $3.0 billion in senior unsecured notes due 2032, with a 5.75% interest rate. The proceeds will be used to repay a senior secured term loan maturing in 2028 and redeem $2.4 billion of senior unsecured notes due 2027. This move is part of Carnival’s strategy to deleverage, manage future debt maturities, and reduce secured debt, continuing its path towards investment-grade credit.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Carnival Closes €1 Billion Senior Notes Offering
Positive
Jul 7, 2025

On July 7, 2025, Carnival plc successfully closed a private offering of €1.0 billion in senior unsecured notes due 2031, with an interest rate of 4.125% per year. The proceeds from this offering will be used to repay existing borrowings under Carnival Corporation’s senior secured term loan facilities maturing in 2027 and 2028. This transaction is part of Carnival’s strategy to deleverage, reduce interest expenses, and simplify its capital structure, moving closer to achieving an investment-grade credit rating.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Carnival Closes €1 Billion Senior Notes Offering
Positive
Jul 7, 2025

On July 7, 2025, Carnival plc closed a private offering of €1.0 billion in senior unsecured notes due 2031, with an interest rate of 4.125% per year. The proceeds will be used to repay borrowings under senior secured term loan facilities maturing in 2027 and 2028. This transaction is part of Carnival’s strategy to deleverage, reduce interest expenses, and simplify its capital structure. The notes are guaranteed by Carnival Corporation and certain subsidiaries, and were offered to qualified institutional buyers and non-U.S. investors. This move is seen as a step towards achieving an investment-grade credit rating, reflecting Carnival’s ongoing efforts to strengthen its financial position.

Private Placements and Financing
Carnival Secures $4.5 Billion Credit Facility
Positive
Jun 13, 2025

On June 13, 2025, Carnival Corporation and Carnival plc announced the successful arrangement of a new $4.5 billion multi-currency revolving credit facility, replacing the existing facility of Carnival Holdings (Bermuda) II Limited. This new agreement, which matures in 2030, includes an accordion feature for up to $1.0 billion of additional commitments and is expected to enhance the company’s liquidity, aiding in debt reduction efforts. The facility is unsecured and guaranteed by the same subsidiaries that guarantee the company’s senior secured term loan facilities, reflecting confidence in Carnival’s continued performance and strong banking relationships.

Private Placements and Financing
Carnival Secures $4.5 Billion Credit Facility
Positive
Jun 13, 2025

On June 13, 2025, Carnival Corporation and Carnival plc announced the successful arrangement of a new $4.5 billion multi-currency revolving credit facility, replacing the existing facility. This new agreement, which matures in June 2030, includes an accordion feature for additional commitments and reflects confidence in Carnival’s financial performance and banking relationships. The new facility is unsecured and guaranteed by the same subsidiaries that back the company’s senior secured term loan facilities, enhancing liquidity and supporting debt reduction efforts.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 01, 2025