Carnival (CCL)
NYSE:CCL
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Carnival
(NYSE:CCL)
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Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$25.00
▼(-10.81% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/31/26
The score reflects strong post-2022 financial recovery and a constructive earnings-call outlook (record results, bookings strength, and improved guidance), tempered by still-elevated leverage and a notably weak technical setup (price below all major moving averages with negative momentum). A high P/E and low dividend yield further limit the valuation component.
Positive Factors
Improved cash generation
Material and sustained cash generation (TTM OCF $6.6B; FCF $3.0B) provides durable funding for debt reduction, reinvestment and shareholder returns. Strong cash flow buffers the cyclical cruise business and supports execution of multi-year plans even through demand variability.
Negative Factors
Elevated absolute leverage
Despite improvement from peak leverage, absolute debt remains large relative to equity and assets. High nominal debt constrains financial flexibility, raises refinancing and interest-rate risk, and limits the company’s ability to invest or weather prolonged demand weakness without slowing returns to shareholders.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improved cash generation
Material and sustained cash generation (TTM OCF $6.6B; FCF $3.0B) provides durable funding for debt reduction, reinvestment and shareholder returns. Strong cash flow buffers the cyclical cruise business and supports execution of multi-year plans even through demand variability.
Read all positive factors
Carnival (CCL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$38.81B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)28.02M
Price to Earnings (P/E)42.2
Beta (1Y)1.69
Revenue Growth6.39%
EPS Growth39.66%
CountryUS
Employees160,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryLeisure
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.20
Shares Outstanding1,239,000,200
10 Day Avg. Volume25,337,098
30 Day Avg. Volume28,023,776
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.31
Price to Book (P/B)2.77
Price to Sales (P/S)1.28
P/FCF Ratio13.05
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.65
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.37
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.32
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.85
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$34.99Price Target Upside24.83% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering17
EPS Forecast (FY)2.25
Revenue Forecast (FY)$27.87B
Carnival Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Carnival Corporation & plc operates as a leisure travel company. Its ships visit approximately 700 ports under the Carnival Cruise Line, Princess Cruises, Holland America Line, P&O Cruises (Australia), Seabourn, Costa Cruises, AIDA Cruises, P&O Cr...
How the Company Makes Money
Carnival primarily makes money by selling cruise vacations and then monetizing guest spending before and during the voyage. The company’s revenue model is commonly grouped into two main streams: (1) Passenger ticket revenues—fares paid by guests f...
Carnival Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Shows how revenue is distributed across different business areas, highlighting which segments are driving growth and which may need strategic attention.
Shows how revenue is distributed across different business areas, highlighting which segments are driving growth and which may need strategic attention.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyCarnival Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 27, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jun 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated strong operational momentum and several record-setting Q1 metrics (revenue, bookings, deposits, net income growth and improved yields), supported by a clear multi-year strategic plan (PROPEL) with ambitious ROIC, EPS and capital return targets. Major concerns centered on sharply higher fuel prices and geopolitical volatility that create meaningful near-term earnings headwinds and potential itinerary risks. On balance, management demonstrated confidence in demand, cost discipline and long-term value creation while acknowledging short-term fuel-driven pressure.Positive Updates
Record First Quarter Results
Delivered record Q1 revenues, net yields, operating income and EBITDA; net income of $275 million, up more than 55% year-over-year and $40 million ($0.03 per share) ahead of December guidance.
Negative Updates
Significant Fuel Headwind for 2026
Higher fuel prices drive a material headwind: a $0.38 per share negative impact included in March guidance; company sensitivity indicates a 10% change in fuel cost per metric ton affects results by ~$160 million or ~$0.11 per share.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record First Quarter Results
Delivered record Q1 revenues, net yields, operating income and EBITDA; net income of $275 million, up more than 55% year-over-year and $40 million ($0.03 per share) ahead of December guidance.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Carnival raised its March guidance while detailing 2026 assumptions and 2029 PROPEL targets: full‑year 2026 EPS guidance of $2.21 (Q1 net income $275M, up >55% y/y; Q1 EPS beat vs Dec by $0.03/sh or $40M), Q1 yields +2.7% y/y, bookings ~85% of 2026 on the books with current‑year bookings +10% y/y and customer deposits nearly $8.0B (≈+10% y/y); Q1 delivered $0.07/sh of operational improvement (revenue +$0.04/sh, cruise costs w/o fuel per ALBD +5.3% y/y but ~0.5pp better than Dec, fuel consumption -4.7% y/y) and management expects an additional $0.04/sh of operational gains in the balance of 2026, but a $0.38/sh fuel headwind (company fuel assumptions: March/early‑April actuals, Brent $90/bbl for Apr–May, $85/bbl Q3, $80/bbl Q4; a 10% change in fuel cost/metric ton = $160M or $0.11/sh impact); full‑year yield growth ~2.75% (normalized ~3.25% ex special items), cruise costs w/o fuel guided +3.1% (normalized +2.3%), and EBITDA is forecast around $7B; PROPEL targets by 2029 include ROIC >16%, >50% EPS growth vs 2025, returning >40% of cash from operations (~$14B) to shareholders, net debt/EBITDA ~2.75x, >25% GHG intensity reduction vs 2019, >$15B reinvestment, a $2.5B buyback authorization today, and measured capacity with only 3 ships entering service in the PROPEL period.Carnival Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
71
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Nov 2025 | Nov 2024 | Nov 2023 | Nov 2022 | Nov 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 26.98B | 26.62B | 25.02B | 21.59B | 12.17B | 1.91B |
| Gross Profit | 10.13B | 7.88B | 9.38B | 7.28B | 412.00M | -2.75B |
| EBITDA | 7.23B | 6.91B | 6.23B | 4.37B | -2.20B | -5.69B |
| Net Income | 3.10B | 2.76B | 1.92B | -74.00M | -6.09B | -9.50B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 51.57B | 51.69B | 49.06B | 49.12B | 51.70B | 53.34B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.42B | 1.93B | 1.21B | 2.42B | 4.03B | 9.14B |
| Total Debt | 26.61B | 27.99B | 28.88B | 31.89B | 35.88B | 34.61B |
| Total Liabilities | 38.52B | 39.40B | 39.81B | 42.24B | 44.64B | 41.20B |
| Stockholders Equity | 13.03B | 12.28B | 9.25B | 6.88B | 7.06B | 12.14B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.99B | 2.61B | 1.30B | 997.00M | -6.61B | -7.72B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 6.56B | 6.22B | 5.92B | 4.28B | -1.67B | -4.11B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.31B | -3.32B | -4.54B | -2.81B | -4.77B | -3.54B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.67B | -2.19B | -2.58B | -5.09B | 3.58B | 6.95B |
Carnival Technical Analysis
Positive
28.03
Price Trends
28.49
Negative
28.37
Negative
28.81
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.49
Negative
56.76
Neutral
69.00
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CCL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 28.03 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 25.21, below the 50-day MA of 28.49, and below the 200-day MA of 28.81, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.49 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.76 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 69.00 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CCL.
Carnival Risk Analysis
Carnival disclosed 16 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Carnival reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Carnival Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $75.55B | 17.69 | 45.87% | 1.09% | 8.61% | 49.58% | |
72 Outperform | $2.47B | 29.88 | 13.18% | 0.79% | 7.27% | 45.12% | |
63 Neutral | $34.72B | 27.60 | 237.91% | ― | 20.04% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
61 Neutral | $38.81B | 42.16 | 26.22% | ― | 6.39% | 39.66% | |
56 Neutral | $1.23B | -26.67 | 13.32% | ― | 18.50% | 7.78% | |
50 Neutral | $9.18B | 24.01 | 22.91% | ― | 3.59% | 19.09% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
CCL
Carnival
28.03
10.51
60.00%
RCL
Royal Caribbean
279.26
89.54
47.20%
NCLH
Norwegian Cruise Line
20.16
3.47
20.79%
LIND
Lindblad Expeditions Holdings
18.89
10.85
134.95%
OSW
OneSpaWorld Holdings
24.31
7.83
47.49%
VIK
Viking Holdings
77.89
38.67
98.60%
Carnival Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDelistings and Listing ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Carnival to Unify Dual Structure and Redomicile to Bermuda
Neutral
Feb 20, 2026
On February 20, 2026, Carnival Corporation and Carnival plc signed a unification agreement to collapse their long-standing dual-listed company structure into a single entity under Carnival Corporation, with Carnival plc becoming a wholly owned U.K...
Business Operations and StrategyDelistings and Listing ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Carnival to Unify Dual-Listed Structure, Redomicile to Bermuda
Neutral
Feb 20, 2026
On February 20, 2026, Carnival Corporation and Carnival plc signed a unification agreement to collapse their dual-listed company structure into a single entity under Carnival Corporation, with Carnival plc becoming a wholly owned UK subsidiary and...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Carnival Updates ADR Agreement Amid Planned Corporate Unification
Neutral
Feb 12, 2026
On February 12, 2026, Carnival plc amended its Amended and Restated Deposit Agreement with JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A., revising the termination provisions governing its American Depositary Receipts program. The changes define new triggers for endi...
Business Operations and StrategyDelistings and Listing ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Carnival Updates ADR Agreement Amid Planned Corporate Unification
Neutral
Feb 12, 2026
On February 12, 2026, Carnival plc amended its Amended and Restated Deposit Agreement with JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A., revising the termination provisions governing its American Depositary Receipts program. The changes specify new triggers for end...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.