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Carnival Corporation (CCL)
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Carnival (CCL) AI Stock Analysis

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CCL

Carnival

(NYSE:CCL)

Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
$33.00
▲(10.89% Upside)
Carnival's overall stock score reflects strong technical momentum and positive earnings call outcomes, indicating robust near-term performance. Financial health improvements are significant, but high leverage and rising costs are risks that require attention. Corporate events also bolster the outlook by improving financial flexibility.
Positive Factors
Consumer Demand
CCL continues to benefit from strong consumer demand, disciplined fleet and capacity strategies, exclusive destination development, operational efficiencies, aggressive deleveraging, sustainability investments, and enhanced marketing, all driving ongoing revenue and cash flow growth and further shareholder value creation.
Financial Performance
CCL reported 2Q adjusted EPS of $0.35 vs. guidance $0.22, consensus $0.24, and our $0.25.
Market Position
CCL remains well-positioned to benefit from resilient cruise demand spending driven by the exceptional value of cruise base vacations and increasing penetration in the over $2 trillion and growing global travel market.
Negative Factors
Market Valuation
CCL shares now trade at an 11% discount to historical levels.
Potential Conflict of Interest
J.P. Morgan may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of its research report on Carnival Corporation.

Carnival (CCL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Carnival Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCarnival Corporation & plc is a global cruise company and one of the largest leisure travel companies in the world. It operates a fleet of over 100 ships across various brands, including Carnival Cruise Line, Princess Cruises, Holland America Line, and Costa Cruises. The company offers a range of cruise experiences, catering to diverse customer preferences and budgets, and emphasizes entertainment, dining, and excursions as core elements of its service offerings.
How the Company Makes MoneyCarnival generates revenue primarily through the sale of cruise tickets, which account for a significant portion of its earnings. In addition to ticket sales, the company earns substantial income from onboard spending, which includes revenue from dining, beverages, excursions, and retail purchases made by guests during their cruises. Another key revenue stream comes from vacation packages that combine cruise experiences with land-based travel elements. Furthermore, Carnival benefits from partnerships with various travel agencies and tour operators, which help to drive bookings and expand its market reach. The company also engages in strategic marketing and promotional campaigns to attract customers and enhance brand visibility, contributing to its overall revenue growth.

Carnival Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Occupancy Percentage
Occupancy Percentage
Indicates the proportion of available cabins filled, reflecting demand for cruises and operational efficiency in maximizing passenger capacity.
Chart InsightsCarnival's occupancy percentage has consistently surpassed pre-pandemic levels, reaching over 100% in recent quarters. This trend reflects strong demand and effective pricing strategies, as highlighted in the latest earnings call. The company achieved record financial performance, with significant yield growth and strategic fleet upgrades. Despite geopolitical and economic uncertainties, Carnival's robust booking and pricing strategies, along with new destination developments, position it well for continued growth. However, rising cruise costs and the initial impact of a new loyalty program could pose short-term challenges.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Carnival Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jun 24, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: 23.79%|
Next Earnings Date:Sep 26, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Carnival Corporation reported another quarter of strong financial performance with record revenues and exceeded targets, despite facing some geopolitical uncertainties and rising costs. The outlook remains positive with strategic investments and successful refinancing efforts.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Revenue and Profit Growth
Carnival Corporation achieved record revenues for the eighth consecutive quarter, with EBITDA up 26%, operating income up 67%, and net income more than tripling year over year. EBITDA margins were the highest in nearly twenty years, exceeding 2019 levels by 200 basis points.
Achievement of 2026 Targets Ahead of Schedule
Carnival met and exceeded its 2026 targets a full eighteen months ahead of schedule, with EBITDA per ALBD growth at 52% above the 2023 baseline and ROIC surpassing 12.5%.
Successful Destination and Fleet Enhancements
The company reported progress on its new destination, Celebration Key, and enhancements in existing destinations and fleets, including the Aida Evolution program. These are expected to drive further demand and pricing improvements.
Improved Financial Guidance for 2025
Full-year 2025 net income guidance improved by $200 million, with anticipated EBITDA increase of 13% over 2024.
Debt Refinancing Efforts
Carnival prepaid $350 million of notes and extended other credit facilities, reducing interest expenses and improving net debt to EBITDA ratio to 3.7x.
Negative Updates
Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Uncertainty
The ongoing conflict in the Middle East and other global uncertainties may impact future business, though no immediate effects are noted.
Increased Third-Quarter Costs
Third-quarter cruise costs without fuel per ALBD are expected to rise by 7% compared to the prior year, driven by new destinations, advertising, capacity issues, and previous one-time benefits.
Deferral Impact of New Loyalty Program
The new Carnival Rewards program will initially impact yields negatively by about half a point in 2026 due to required revenue deferrals, though it is expected to become accretive after two years.
Company Guidance
During Carnival Corporation & plc's second quarter 2025 earnings call, the company reported record results across multiple metrics, marking eight consecutive quarters of record revenues on record yields. EBITDA was up 26% year over year, operating income increased by 67%, and net income more than tripled, exceeding guidance by $185 million. Yields grew by nearly 6.5%, outperforming guidance by 200 basis points, and customer deposits reached an all-time high. The company's EBITDA margins surpassed 2019 levels by 200 basis points, achieving the highest margins in nearly 20 years. Additionally, Carnival met its Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) target of 12.5%, more than doubling in less than two years, and achieved its carbon intensity reduction goal of 20% compared to 2019 levels. These results allowed Carnival to set new targets for 2026 ahead of schedule, anticipating yield growth of 16% across 2024 and 2025, with a strong focus on enhancing fleet offerings and expanding private island destinations to drive future growth.

Carnival Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Carnival has shown notable recovery post-pandemic with improved revenue growth, profit margins, and strong cash flow metrics. However, high leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.86 and past negative cash flows represent potential risks. The financial health is on an improving trend but requires close monitoring of debt levels and operational efficiencies.
Income Statement
75
Positive
Carnival's TTM revenue increased with a strong revenue growth rate from the previous year. The company shows a solid gross profit margin of 39.2% and a net profit margin of 9.7%, reflecting improved profitability from the previous losses. However, the EBIT margin at 16.2% and EBITDA margin at 26.0% indicate room for operational efficiency improvements.
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
The company's debt-to-equity ratio of 2.86 indicates relatively high leverage, which poses a risk in economic downturns. The return on equity is 25.2%, showing effective utilization of shareholder funds. However, the equity ratio of 19.6% suggests a lower proportion of assets financed by equity, indicating financial vulnerability.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
Carnival's free cash flow improved significantly, with a growth rate of 116.3%, indicating better cash management. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 2.15 and free cash flow to net income ratio of 1.11 suggest strong cash generation relative to earnings. However, past negative cash flows remain a concern that needs continued attention.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue25.97B25.02B21.59B12.17B1.91B5.59B
Gross Profit10.18B9.38B7.28B412.00M-2.75B-2.65B
EBITDA6.75B6.23B4.37B-2.20B-5.69B-7.12B
Net Income2.52B1.92B-74.00M-6.09B-9.50B-10.24B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets51.16B49.06B49.12B51.70B53.34B53.59B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments2.15B1.21B2.42B4.03B9.14B9.51B
Total Debt28.65B28.88B31.89B35.88B34.61B28.38B
Total Liabilities41.16B39.81B42.24B44.64B41.20B33.04B
Stockholders Equity10.01B9.25B6.88B7.06B12.14B20.55B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow2.81B1.30B997.00M-6.61B-7.72B-9.92B
Operating Cash Flow5.43B5.92B4.28B-1.67B-4.11B-6.30B
Investing Cash Flow-2.34B-4.54B-2.81B-4.77B-3.54B-3.24B
Financing Cash Flow-2.61B-2.58B-5.09B3.58B6.95B18.65B

Carnival Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price29.76
Price Trends
50DMA
28.03
Positive
100DMA
24.19
Positive
200DMA
24.29
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.43
Positive
RSI
53.39
Neutral
STOCH
64.83
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CCL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 29.76 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 29.64, above the 50-day MA of 28.03, and above the 200-day MA of 24.29, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.43 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 53.39 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 64.83 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CCL.

Carnival Risk Analysis

Carnival disclosed 14 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Carnival reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Carnival Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
75
Outperform
$38.74B16.2430.02%10.81%175.74%
75
Outperform
$2.25B32.3213.16%0.73%8.51%31.24%
73
Outperform
$38.56B14.9530.02%10.81%175.74%
61
Neutral
$17.51B12.51-5.96%3.09%1.71%-15.50%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
CCL
Carnival
29.57
14.08
90.90%
CUK
Carnival
27.24
13.13
93.05%
OSW
OneSpaWorld Holdings
21.78
6.63
43.76%

Carnival Corporate Events

Executive/Board Changes
Carnival Implements New Executive Compensation Agreements
Neutral
Aug 8, 2025

On August 6, 2025, Carnival Corporation entered into compensation protection and restrictive covenants agreements with its key executives, including the CEO and CFO. These agreements outline severance terms and restrictive covenants in the event of termination, impacting the company’s executive management structure and potentially influencing stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (CCL) stock is a Hold with a $21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnival stock, see the CCL Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Carnival Implements New Executive Compensation Agreements
Neutral
Aug 8, 2025

On August 6, 2025, Carnival Corporation entered into compensation protection and restrictive covenants agreements with its Named Executive Officers, including the CEO, CFO, Chief Human Resources Officer, and General Counsel. These agreements outline severance packages and include confidentiality, non-competition, non-disparagement, and non-solicitation covenants, impacting the company’s executive management structure and potentially its operational stability.

The most recent analyst rating on (CCL) stock is a Hold with a $26.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnival stock, see the CCL Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Carnival Closes $3 Billion Senior Notes Offering
Neutral
Jul 16, 2025

On July 16, 2025, Carnival Corporation closed a private offering of $3.0 billion in senior unsecured notes due 2032, with a 5.75% interest rate. The proceeds will be used to repay borrowings under its senior secured term loan facility and to redeem $2.4 billion of senior unsecured notes due 2027. This transaction is part of Carnival’s strategy to deleverage and manage future debt maturities, with the company having refinanced nearly $11 billion of debt and prepaid $1.1 billion of debt this year. The notes are guaranteed by Carnival plc and certain subsidiaries, and they include covenants typical of investment-grade debt.

The most recent analyst rating on (CCL) stock is a Hold with a $21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnival stock, see the CCL Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Carnival Closes $3 Billion Senior Notes Offering
Positive
Jul 16, 2025

On July 16, 2025, Carnival Corporation closed a private offering of $3.0 billion in senior unsecured notes due 2032, with a 5.75% interest rate. The proceeds will be used to repay a senior secured term loan maturing in 2028 and redeem $2.4 billion of senior unsecured notes due 2027. This move is part of Carnival’s strategy to deleverage, manage future debt maturities, and reduce secured debt, continuing its path towards investment-grade credit.

The most recent analyst rating on (CCL) stock is a Hold with a $21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnival stock, see the CCL Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Carnival Closes €1 Billion Senior Notes Offering
Positive
Jul 7, 2025

On July 7, 2025, Carnival plc successfully closed a private offering of €1.0 billion in senior unsecured notes due 2031, with an interest rate of 4.125% per year. The proceeds from this offering will be used to repay existing borrowings under Carnival Corporation’s senior secured term loan facilities maturing in 2027 and 2028. This transaction is part of Carnival’s strategy to deleverage, reduce interest expenses, and simplify its capital structure, moving closer to achieving an investment-grade credit rating.

The most recent analyst rating on (CCL) stock is a Hold with a $21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnival stock, see the CCL Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Carnival Closes €1 Billion Senior Notes Offering
Positive
Jul 7, 2025

On July 7, 2025, Carnival plc closed a private offering of €1.0 billion in senior unsecured notes due 2031, with an interest rate of 4.125% per year. The proceeds will be used to repay borrowings under senior secured term loan facilities maturing in 2027 and 2028. This transaction is part of Carnival’s strategy to deleverage, reduce interest expenses, and simplify its capital structure. The notes are guaranteed by Carnival Corporation and certain subsidiaries, and were offered to qualified institutional buyers and non-U.S. investors. This move is seen as a step towards achieving an investment-grade credit rating, reflecting Carnival’s ongoing efforts to strengthen its financial position.

The most recent analyst rating on (CCL) stock is a Hold with a $21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnival stock, see the CCL Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and Financing
Carnival Secures $4.5 Billion Credit Facility
Positive
Jun 13, 2025

On June 13, 2025, Carnival Corporation and Carnival plc announced the successful arrangement of a new $4.5 billion multi-currency revolving credit facility, replacing the existing facility of Carnival Holdings (Bermuda) II Limited. This new agreement, which matures in 2030, includes an accordion feature for up to $1.0 billion of additional commitments and is expected to enhance the company’s liquidity, aiding in debt reduction efforts. The facility is unsecured and guaranteed by the same subsidiaries that guarantee the company’s senior secured term loan facilities, reflecting confidence in Carnival’s continued performance and strong banking relationships.

The most recent analyst rating on (CCL) stock is a Hold with a $21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnival stock, see the CCL Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and Financing
Carnival Secures $4.5 Billion Credit Facility
Positive
Jun 13, 2025

On June 13, 2025, Carnival Corporation and Carnival plc announced the successful arrangement of a new $4.5 billion multi-currency revolving credit facility, replacing the existing facility. This new agreement, which matures in June 2030, includes an accordion feature for additional commitments and reflects confidence in Carnival’s financial performance and banking relationships. The new facility is unsecured and guaranteed by the same subsidiaries that back the company’s senior secured term loan facilities, enhancing liquidity and supporting debt reduction efforts.

The most recent analyst rating on (CCL) stock is a Hold with a $21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnival stock, see the CCL Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Carnival Completes $1 Billion Senior Notes Offering
Positive
May 21, 2025

On May 21, 2025, Carnival Corporation closed a private offering of $1.0 billion in senior unsecured notes due 2031, with an interest rate of 5.875%. The proceeds will be used to redeem $993 million of the company’s 7.625% senior unsecured notes due 2026, continuing its strategy to reduce interest expenses and manage future debt maturities. This transaction is expected to reduce net interest expenses by over $20 million through the maturity date of the 2026 notes. The notes are guaranteed by Carnival plc and certain subsidiaries and include investment-grade covenants, offering a strategic advantage in managing the company’s financial obligations.

The most recent analyst rating on (CCL) stock is a Hold with a $21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnival stock, see the CCL Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Carnival Completes $1 Billion Senior Notes Offering
Positive
May 21, 2025

On May 21, 2025, Carnival Corporation closed a private offering of $1.0 billion in senior unsecured notes due 2031, with a 5.875% interest rate. The proceeds will be used to redeem $993 million of the company’s 7.625% senior unsecured notes due 2026, continuing its strategy to reduce interest expenses and manage debt maturities. The transaction is expected to save over $20 million in net interest expenses by the maturity date of the 2026 notes. The notes are guaranteed by Carnival plc and certain subsidiaries and include investment-grade covenants.

The most recent analyst rating on (CCL) stock is a Hold with a $21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnival stock, see the CCL Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 17, 2025