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Carnival (CCL)
NYSE:CCL

Carnival (CCL) AI Stock Analysis

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Carnival

(NYSE:CCL)

Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$30.00
▲(0.13%Upside)
Carnival's strong recovery and bullish technical indicators drive a positive outlook. Despite high leverage and rising operational costs, strategic financial moves and positive earnings call guidance suggest continued growth potential.
Positive Factors
Earnings
Carnival Corporation's Q2 earnings per share were significantly higher than expected, indicating strong financial performance.
Financial Performance
Carnival Corporation achieved the highest 2Q margin in 20 years, marking the second consecutive quarter of EBITDA margin expansion compared to 2019.
Negative Factors
Booked Position
Although the company's booked position remains strong, it is slightly weaker compared to the previous year's record levels.
Market Perception
J.P. Morgan may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of its research report on Carnival Corporation.

Carnival (CCL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Carnival Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCarnival Corporation & plc operates as a leisure travel company. Its ships visit approximately 700 ports under the Carnival Cruise Line, Princess Cruises, Holland America Line, P&O Cruises (Australia), Seabourn, Costa Cruises, AIDA Cruises, P&O Cruises (UK), and Cunard brand names. The company also provides port destinations and other services, as well as owns and owns and operates hotels, lodges, glass-domed railcars, and motor coaches. It sells its cruises primarily through travel agents, tour operators, vacation planners, and websites. The company operates in the United States, Canada, Continental Europe, the United Kingdom, Australia, New Zealand, Asia, and internationally. It operates 87 ships with 223,000 lower berths. Carnival Corporation & plc was founded in 1972 and is headquartered in Miami, Florida.
How the Company Makes MoneyCarnival Corporation generates revenue primarily through ticket sales for its cruise voyages, which include accommodations, meals, and basic onboard amenities. Additional revenue streams come from onboard spending by passengers, such as purchases at specialty restaurants, bars, casinos, spas, and retail outlets, as well as shore excursions and other services. Carnival also earns income from travel and vacation-related services, including port and terminal operations. The company's revenue is influenced by factors such as fleet size, occupancy rates, ticket pricing, and the level of onboard spending. Strategic partnerships with travel agencies and marketing alliances also play a role in reaching wider customer bases and enhancing revenue streams.

Carnival Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jun 24, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: 24.63%|
Next Earnings Date:Sep 26, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Carnival Corporation's earnings call reflected strong financial performance with record revenues and profits, successful achievement of strategic targets, and promising future plans with new destinations and fleet upgrades. However, there are concerns about geopolitical uncertainties and rising cruise costs. The introduction of a new loyalty program is a strategic move, though it will have short-term accounting impacts. Overall, the positives significantly outweigh the negatives.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Revenue and Profit Growth
Carnival Corporation achieved record revenues for the eighth consecutive quarter with EBITDA up 26% and operating income up 67% year-over-year. Net income more than tripled and outperformed guidance by $185 million.
Exceeded 2026 Targets Ahead of Schedule
The company met and exceeded its 2026 targets for 50% EBITDA per ALBD growth and 12% return on invested capital a full eighteen months ahead of schedule.
New Destination Developments
Carnival is set to open Celebration Key and expand Relax Away Half Moon Cay and Isla Tropical, enhancing guest experiences with new private beach destinations.
Strong Booking and Pricing Strategy
Carnival's booking position is in line with last year's records, with yield expectations affirmed for the remainder of the year. The company maintains a strong pricing strategy with an elongated advanced booking window.
Successful Fleet Upgrades and Future Plans
The Aida Evolution upgrade program has been successful, and new builds for Aida and Carnival's Excel class ships are underway, promising future growth.
Loyalty Program Relaunch
Carnival Cruise Line will launch a new and improved loyalty program in June 2026, expected to enhance customer engagement and loyalty.
Negative Updates
Geopolitical and Economic Uncertainty
The conflict in the Middle East and macroeconomic turbulence pose uncertainties, potentially impacting future business operations.
Higher Cruise Costs Expected
Third-quarter cruise costs without fuel per ALBD are expected to rise by 7%, influenced by new destination operating expenses and other factors.
Loyalty Program Accounting Impact
The new loyalty program will initially defer revenue recognition, slightly impacting yields in 2026, but is expected to turn positive after two years.
Company Guidance
During the second quarter of 2025, Carnival Corporation & plc reported record financial performance, achieving its highest-ever EBITDA and operating income for this period, both in total and per ALBD basis. The company exceeded its guidance for net income by $185 million, driven by a 6.5% growth in yields, which surpassed guidance by 200 basis points. Year-over-year, EBITDA increased by 26%, operating income rose by 67%, and net income more than tripled. Carnival met its 2026 financial targets ahead of schedule, with EBITDA per ALBD up 52% from the 2023 baseline and ROIC surpassing 12.5%. The company also reached its carbon intensity reduction goal of 20% compared to 2019. Looking forward, Carnival anticipates yield growth of 16% over 2024 and 2025, maintaining strong 4% yield growth into the year's second half, despite geopolitical and macroeconomic volatility.

Carnival Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Carnival has shown notable recovery with improved revenue, profitability, and cash flow metrics. High leverage remains a risk despite strong revenue growth and improving profit margins.
Income Statement
75
Positive
Carnival's TTM revenue increased with a strong revenue growth rate from the previous year. The company shows a solid gross profit margin of 39.2% and a net profit margin of 9.7%, reflecting improved profitability from the previous losses. However, the EBIT margin at 16.2% and EBITDA margin at 26.0% indicate room for operational efficiency improvements.
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
The company's debt-to-equity ratio of 2.86 indicates relatively high leverage, which poses a risk in economic downturns. The return on equity is 25.2%, showing effective utilization of shareholder funds. However, the equity ratio of 19.6% suggests a lower proportion of assets financed by equity, indicating financial vulnerability.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
Carnival's free cash flow improved significantly, with a growth rate of 116.3%, indicating better cash management. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 2.15 and free cash flow to net income ratio of 1.11 suggest strong cash generation relative to earnings. However, past negative cash flows remain a concern that needs continued attention.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue25.97B25.02B21.59B12.17B1.91B5.59B
Gross Profit10.18B9.38B7.28B412.00M-2.75B-2.65B
EBITDA6.75B6.23B4.37B-2.20B-5.69B-7.12B
Net Income2.52B1.92B-74.00M-6.09B-9.50B-10.24B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets51.16B49.06B49.12B51.70B53.34B53.59B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments2.15B1.21B2.42B4.03B9.14B9.51B
Total Debt28.65B28.88B31.89B35.88B34.61B28.38B
Total Liabilities41.16B39.81B42.24B44.64B41.20B33.04B
Stockholders Equity10.01B9.25B6.88B7.06B12.14B20.55B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow2.81B1.30B997.00M-6.61B-7.72B-9.92B
Operating Cash Flow5.43B5.92B4.28B-1.67B-4.11B-6.30B
Investing Cash Flow-2.34B-4.54B-2.81B-4.77B-3.54B-3.24B
Financing Cash Flow-2.61B-2.58B-5.09B3.58B6.95B18.65B

Carnival Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price29.96
Price Trends
50DMA
22.94
Positive
100DMA
21.97
Positive
200DMA
22.72
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
1.72
Negative
RSI
80.63
Negative
STOCH
97.48
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CCL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 29.96 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 25.32, above the 50-day MA of 22.94, and above the 200-day MA of 22.72, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.72 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 80.63 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 97.48 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CCL.

Carnival Risk Analysis

Carnival disclosed 14 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Carnival reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Carnival Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
OSOSW
77
Outperform
$2.20B33.7012.80%0.75%9.80%89.42%
CUCUK
74
Outperform
$38.91B14.7430.02%10.81%175.74%
CCCCL
73
Outperform
$38.87B16.2430.02%10.81%175.74%
62
Neutral
$16.90B11.24-7.48%2.95%1.60%-23.76%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
CCL
Carnival
29.96
12.40
70.62%
CUK
Carnival
27.20
11.08
68.73%
OSW
OneSpaWorld Holdings
21.39
5.96
38.63%

Carnival Corporate Events

Private Placements and Financing
Carnival Secures $4.5 Billion Credit Facility
Positive
Jun 13, 2025

On June 13, 2025, Carnival Corporation and Carnival plc announced the successful arrangement of a new $4.5 billion multi-currency revolving credit facility, replacing the existing facility of Carnival Holdings (Bermuda) II Limited. This new agreement, which matures in 2030, includes an accordion feature for up to $1.0 billion of additional commitments and is expected to enhance the company’s liquidity, aiding in debt reduction efforts. The facility is unsecured and guaranteed by the same subsidiaries that guarantee the company’s senior secured term loan facilities, reflecting confidence in Carnival’s continued performance and strong banking relationships.

The most recent analyst rating on (CCL) stock is a Hold with a $21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnival stock, see the CCL Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and Financing
Carnival Secures $4.5 Billion Credit Facility
Positive
Jun 13, 2025

On June 13, 2025, Carnival Corporation and Carnival plc announced the successful arrangement of a new $4.5 billion multi-currency revolving credit facility, replacing the existing facility. This new agreement, which matures in June 2030, includes an accordion feature for additional commitments and reflects confidence in Carnival’s financial performance and banking relationships. The new facility is unsecured and guaranteed by the same subsidiaries that back the company’s senior secured term loan facilities, enhancing liquidity and supporting debt reduction efforts.

The most recent analyst rating on (CCL) stock is a Hold with a $21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnival stock, see the CCL Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Carnival Completes $1 Billion Senior Notes Offering
Positive
May 21, 2025

On May 21, 2025, Carnival Corporation closed a private offering of $1.0 billion in senior unsecured notes due 2031, with an interest rate of 5.875%. The proceeds will be used to redeem $993 million of the company’s 7.625% senior unsecured notes due 2026, continuing its strategy to reduce interest expenses and manage future debt maturities. This transaction is expected to reduce net interest expenses by over $20 million through the maturity date of the 2026 notes. The notes are guaranteed by Carnival plc and certain subsidiaries and include investment-grade covenants, offering a strategic advantage in managing the company’s financial obligations.

The most recent analyst rating on (CCL) stock is a Hold with a $21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnival stock, see the CCL Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Carnival Completes $1 Billion Senior Notes Offering
Positive
May 21, 2025

On May 21, 2025, Carnival Corporation closed a private offering of $1.0 billion in senior unsecured notes due 2031, with a 5.875% interest rate. The proceeds will be used to redeem $993 million of the company’s 7.625% senior unsecured notes due 2026, continuing its strategy to reduce interest expenses and manage debt maturities. The transaction is expected to save over $20 million in net interest expenses by the maturity date of the 2026 notes. The notes are guaranteed by Carnival plc and certain subsidiaries and include investment-grade covenants.

The most recent analyst rating on (CCL) stock is a Hold with a $21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnival stock, see the CCL Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jun 29, 2025