Commerzbank AG (CRZBY)
OTHER OTC:CRZBY
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Commerzbank AG
(OTC:CRZBY)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$37.00
▼(-8.69% Downside)
Action:DowngradedDate:03/29/26
The score is held back primarily by weak technicals and mixed financial statement quality (sharp 2025 revenue decline, volatile cash flows, and elevated leverage). Offsetting this, the latest earnings call was notably constructive with upgraded 2026 targets and strong capital return plans, while valuation appears reasonable rather than stretched.
Positive Factors
Capital returns & CET1 strength
A sustained, explicit capital-return program plus a CET1 ratio of ~14.7% creates durable shareholder-aligned capital management. This buffer supports buybacks/dividends while keeping regulatory headroom, enabling returns without materially undermining solvency or long-term strategic investments.
Negative Factors
Sharp 2025 revenue decline
A material revenue drop in 2025 undermines the durability of recent profit gains: lower top-line momentum makes sustaining margins and achieving growth targets harder. If revenue volatility persists, it raises execution risk against multi-year RoTE and NII ramp plans, pressuring medium-term forecasts.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Capital returns & CET1 strength
A sustained, explicit capital-return program plus a CET1 ratio of ~14.7% creates durable shareholder-aligned capital management. This buffer supports buybacks/dividends while keeping regulatory headroom, enabling returns without materially undermining solvency or long-term strategic investments.
Read all positive factors
Commerzbank AG (CRZBY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$45.15B
Dividend Yield1.72%
Average Volume (3M)2.47K
Price to Earnings (P/E)16.1
Beta (1Y)0.63
Revenue Growth-0.55%
EPS Growth20.78%
CountryUS
Employees39,069
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.73
Shares Outstanding1,127,496,200
10 Day Avg. Volume4,150
30 Day Avg. Volume2,470
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio2.10
Price to Book (P/B)1.20
Price to Sales (P/S)3.80
P/FCF Ratio0.84
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.68
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.90
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit9.47
Enterprise Value/Ebitda32.33
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)3.52
Revenue Forecast (FY)$15.46B
Commerzbank AG Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Commerzbank AG provides banking and capital market services to private and small business customers, multinational groups, financial service providers, and institutional clients worldwide. It operates through two segments, Private and Small-Busine...
How the Company Makes Money
Commerzbank makes money primarily by earning net interest income and fee and commission income from its banking activities. Net interest income is generated from the spread between interest earned on interest-bearing assets (such as loans to retai...
Commerzbank AG Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 11, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 08, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a clearly positive operational and financial momentum: strong revenue growth (+10%), a record operating result (+18%), improved profitability (RoTE 10% before restructuring), and an enhanced capital return program. Management upgraded 2026 guidance (NII to EUR 8.5bn, net result > EUR 3.2bn, RoTE >11.2%) and reiterated a credible roadmap to 2028 targets. Headwinds remain — notably lower Polish rates impacting mBank NII, legacy FX mortgage provisions, Aquila impairments, and deposit competition (beta rising to ~42%) — but these were presented as manageable and largely addressed through capital, cost discipline and strategic actions (AI investments, replication portfolio expansion, RWA management). Overall, positive achievements significantly outweigh the highlighted challenges.Positive Updates
Record Operating Result and Strong Profitability
Operating result of EUR 4.5 billion in 2025, up 18% year-on-year; return on tangible equity (RoTE) before restructuring expenses reached 10% (highest since the global financial crisis).
Negative Updates
mBank Net Interest Income Pressure
Net interest income in mBank is under pressure from materially lower Polish central bank rates; management expects NII at mBank to be lower in 2026 and forecasts further downside if rates fall more than assumed.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Operating Result and Strong Profitability
Operating result of EUR 4.5 billion in 2025, up 18% year-on-year; return on tangible equity (RoTE) before restructuring expenses reached 10% (highest since the global financial crisis).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company guided to a strong 2026 plan: net interest income raised to about €8.5bn (with a target path to ~€9.4bn in 2028), net result above €3.2bn, a cost/income ratio of 54%, return on tangible equity >11.2% (building from an adjusted 2025 RoTE of 10% and an operating result of €4.5bn), and a risk result of ~€850m; management reiterated a 100% payout ratio after AT1 (proposing a €1.10 dividend and launching a up-to-€540m buyback after a €1bn buyback in December), while targeting 7% annual growth in net commission income and a 2028 RoTE target of 15%. They quantify key drivers and headwinds: an additional ~€600m NII contribution from the replication portfolio in 2026, a deposit beta moving from ~40% in 2025 to ~42% (c.€100m headwind) and ~€200m impact from deposits invested at floating rates, expected end‑2026 CET1 >14% (14.7% at year‑end 2025), SREP relief of 10bp (MDA ~6bp), 2025 capital returned €2.7bn (154bp CET1 effect; €5.8bn since 2022), mBank FX loan burdens of €483m in 2025 that should no longer be material in 2026, change budget increased to ~€600m (more allocated to AI), and an anticipated 2026 cost base approaching €7.1bn (2025 costs ~€6.9bn, with cost/income 57% in 2025).Commerzbank AG Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 24.70B | 10.69B | 25.25B | 21.71B | 14.26B | 12.06B |
| Gross Profit | 12.77B | 10.00B | 12.36B | 11.81B | 10.39B | 9.64B |
| EBITDA | 3.74B | 3.79B | 4.64B | 4.17B | 2.82B | 980.00M |
| Net Income | 2.69B | 2.52B | 2.68B | 2.22B | 1.44B | 430.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 581.82B | 603.28B | 554.65B | 517.17B | 477.43B | 467.41B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 72.46B | 97.96B | 89.72B | 102.69B | 86.65B | 60.21B |
| Total Debt | 75.83B | 142.65B | 54.89B | 48.25B | 43.77B | 43.84B |
| Total Liabilities | 546.59B | 567.93B | 518.93B | 484.16B | 446.50B | 437.58B |
| Stockholders Equity | 33.83B | 33.81B | 34.47B | 31.99B | 30.05B | 28.85B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 0.00 | 48.63B | -21.46B | 19.28B | 25.18B | -25.23B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 0.00 | 49.73B | -20.32B | 20.28B | 25.86B | -24.26B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -57.15B | -1.31B | -920.00M | -713.00M | -804.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -3.33B | 565.00M | -1.29B | 178.00M | -1.21B |
Commerzbank AG Technical Analysis
Neutral
40.52
Price Trends
38.58
Negative
39.47
Negative
38.12
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.57
Negative
48.02
Neutral
61.61
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CRZBY, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 40.52 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 36.19, above the 50-day MA of 38.58, and above the 200-day MA of 38.12, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.57 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.02 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 61.61 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for CRZBY.
Commerzbank AG Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $89.08B | 10.18 | 11.88% | 3.11% | 1.79% | 30.93% | |
69 Neutral | $86.01B | 10.95 | 12.12% | 3.77% | 2.91% | 33.77% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
64 Neutral | $80.02B | 12.62 | 9.93% | 3.19% | -20.94% | -18.71% | |
62 Neutral | $61.57B | 11.75 | 8.15% | 4.12% | 22.02% | ― | |
60 Neutral | $45.15B | 16.12 | 7.90% | 1.72% | -0.55% | 20.78% | |
57 Neutral | $108.75B | 10.79 | 9.73% | 2.31% | -2.84% | 25.48% |
* Financial Sector Average
CRZBY
Commerzbank AG
40.15
17.03
73.62%
TFC
Truist Financial
49.29
13.05
35.99%
LYG
Lloyds Banking
5.55
2.10
61.01%
MFG
Mizuho Financial
8.80
4.00
83.33%
PNC
PNC Financial
220.76
66.16
42.80%
USB
US Bancorp
55.36
17.66
46.84%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.