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Commerzbank AG (CRZBY)
OTHER OTC:CRZBY
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Commerzbank AG
(OTC:CRZBY)
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Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:
$45.00
▲(11.06% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:11/28/25
Commerzbank AG's strong financial performance and positive earnings call are the most significant factors driving the score. The technical analysis supports a bullish outlook, while valuation metrics are reasonable. Cash flow concerns slightly temper the overall positive assessment.
Positive Factors
Strong Financial Performance
Exceeding return targets indicates effective capital utilization and strengthens investor confidence, supporting long-term growth prospects.
Cost/Income Ratio Improvement
Improved cost efficiency enhances profitability and competitiveness, positioning the bank well for sustained financial health.
Robust CET1 Ratio
A strong CET1 ratio ensures financial stability and regulatory compliance, enabling the bank to withstand economic fluctuations.
Negative Factors
Legal Provisions Impact
Significant legal provisions can strain financial resources and impact profitability, posing a risk to future earnings stability.
Challenges with Loan Defaults
Increased loan defaults can lead to higher credit losses, affecting the bank's financial performance and risk management strategies.
Cash Flow Concerns
Negative cash flow indicates potential liquidity issues, which could constrain the bank's ability to invest and grow sustainably.
Commerzbank AG (CRZBY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$41.64B
Dividend Yield1.72%
Average Volume (3M)2.47K
Price to Earnings (P/E)16.1
Beta (1Y)0.65
Revenue Growth-0.55%
EPS Growth20.78%
CountryUS
Employees39,069
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.73
Shares Outstanding1,127,496,200
10 Day Avg. Volume4,150
30 Day Avg. Volume2,470
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.25
Price to Book (P/B)0.54
Price to Sales (P/S)0.74
P/FCF Ratio-0.87
Enterprise Value/Market Cap-0.69
Enterprise Value/Revenue-1.17
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-2.25
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-7.69
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)3.55
Revenue Forecast (FY)$15.59B
Commerzbank AG Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionCommerzbank AG provides banking and capital market services to private and small business customers, multinational groups, financial service providers, and institutional clients worldwide. It operates through two segments, Private and Small-Business Customers, and Corporate Clients. The company offers accounts, commercial payments, payment enabling, clearing and custody, and other services; trade services, including documentary collection, letters of credit, guarantees, trade facilitation, supply chain financing, buyer's credit, and forfaiting services; and bilateral loans, club deals, Schuldschein instruments, syndicated loans, bonds, private placements, other debt instruments, and Islamic financing services. It also provides money market, and commodities and precious metals products; interest, currency, and liquidity management services, as well as wealth management services. The company operates approximately 790 branches. Commerzbank AG was founded in 1870 and is headquartered in Frankfurt am Main, Germany.
How the Company Makes MoneyCommerzbank makes money primarily through interest income generated from lending activities, where it offers loans to individuals and businesses at higher interest rates than it pays on deposits. Additionally, the bank earns substantial revenue from fees and commissions associated with its various services, such as account maintenance, transaction processing, and wealth management. Investment banking activities, including advisory fees, capital market services, and trading operations, also contribute significantly to its earnings. Partnerships with financial institutions and corporations enhance its service offerings and increase transaction volumes, further boosting revenue. The bank's diversified portfolio across different financial services helps mitigate risks and stabilize income streams.
Commerzbank AG Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 11, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 08, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a clearly positive operational and financial momentum: strong revenue growth (+10%), a record operating result (+18%), improved profitability (RoTE 10% before restructuring), and an enhanced capital return program. Management upgraded 2026 guidance (NII to EUR 8.5bn, net result > EUR 3.2bn, RoTE >11.2%) and reiterated a credible roadmap to 2028 targets. Headwinds remain — notably lower Polish rates impacting mBank NII, legacy FX mortgage provisions, Aquila impairments, and deposit competition (beta rising to ~42%) — but these were presented as manageable and largely addressed through capital, cost discipline and strategic actions (AI investments, replication portfolio expansion, RWA management). Overall, positive achievements significantly outweigh the highlighted challenges.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Operating Result and Strong Profitability
Operating result of EUR 4.5 billion in 2025, up 18% year-on-year; return on tangible equity (RoTE) before restructuring expenses reached 10% (highest since the global financial crisis).
Revenue Growth Across the Bank
Total revenues increased by 10% to EUR 12.2 billion in 2025; Q4 revenues were up 6% year-on-year; net commission income grew 7% and reached a record fourth-quarter level.
Capital Return and Shareholder Returns
Capital return for 2025 of EUR 2.7 billion (EUR 200 million above prior plan) representing a 100% payout ratio before restructuring and a 7% yield based on start-of-year market cap; additional buyback up to EUR 540 million announced (on top of EUR 1.0 billion completed in December) and proposed dividend increase to EUR 1.10.
Strong Business Momentum and Client Metrics
Corporate loan volumes grew 10% and securities volume grew 9% in 2025; Corporate Clients delivered EUR 10.9 billion loan growth for the year (EUR 2.4 billion in Q4); mBank maintained profitability despite headwinds.
Cost Discipline and Efficiency Progress
Cost/income ratio improved by 2 percentage points to 57% in 2025 (target achieved); excluding certain one-offs, costs rose only ~3%; 2026 target cost/income ratio improved to 54%.
Upgraded 2026 Financial Outlook
2026 guidance upgraded: net result target above EUR 3.2 billion, net interest income (NII) guidance increased to around EUR 8.5 billion, RoTE target >11.2%, and continued 100% payout policy after AT1 coupons.
AI and Transformation Investment
Change budget increased from EUR 500 million to almost EUR 600 million for 2026 with a higher share allocated to AI; multiple deployed GenAI/use-case examples (agent assist, cobaGPT, Fraud AI, Ava) with expected efficiency and revenue benefits.
Asset Management Scale
In-house asset management and specialist units manage EUR 67 billion; partner funds and ETFs total EUR 95 billion, supporting fee income growth and the target of 7% annual growth in net commission income.
Strong Market Recognition and Employee Alignment
Share price more than doubled in 2025 reflecting market confidence; employee share program launched with ~90% participation, aligning staff with shareholder outcomes.
Balance Sheet and Capital Stability
CET1 ratio stable at 14.7% at year-end; SREP capital requirement slightly lowered (10 bps), and RWA management measures (SRTs) delivered ~EUR 9 billion RWA relief in Q4.
Negative Updates
mBank Net Interest Income Pressure
Net interest income in mBank is under pressure from materially lower Polish central bank rates; management expects NII at mBank to be lower in 2026 and forecasts further downside if rates fall more than assumed.
FX Mortgage Legacy in Poland
FX mortgage-related burdens were EUR 483 million in 2025 (provisions historically material); while expected to become non-material in 2026, they remain a legacy headwind and monitoring item.
Aquila / Asset Management Challenges and Impairment
Early-stage renewable energy market challenges pressured two specialized institutional funds at Aquila, prompting a full depreciation of acquired capitalized client value and impairments of intangible assets (about half of Aquila intangibles were impaired).
One-off Cost Items and Elevated Costs
Two larger unplanned cost items in 2025 — higher equity-based compensation due to share-price doubling and accelerated impairment of intangibles — together represented about 3% of the cost base; headline costs were EUR 6.9 billion in 2025 and management expects costs near ~EUR 7.1 billion in 2026.
Deposit Competition and Beta / Funding Headwinds
Deposit beta expected to rise from 40% (2025) to ~42% (2026), reducing interest income by ~EUR 100 million; management flags potential deposit competition and expiries as risks; funding needs (~EUR 12 billion in 2026) and ongoing repricing create sensitivity to market moves.
Risk Result Guidance and Higher Planned Risk
Although 2025 full-year risk result was EUR 722 million (below prior guidance), 2026 is guided to around EUR 850 million due to prudence for higher default risk and structural changes (implying a cost-of-risk of ~25–30 bps).
Volatility in Asset Management Revenues
Asset management subsidiaries experienced lumpy and somewhat lower Q4 revenues compared with prior quarters due to transaction-fee volatility and a more challenging market environment for less liquid assets.
Higher Taxes and Minority Impacts
Full-year taxes and minorities increased in 2025 due to tax-code changes in Germany and Poland and higher profitability in mBank, contributing to a net result of EUR 2.6 billion (adjusted net result EUR 3.0 billion, +~13% excluding restructuring).
Company Guidance
The company guided to a strong 2026 plan: net interest income raised to about €8.5bn (with a target path to ~€9.4bn in 2028), net result above €3.2bn, a cost/income ratio of 54%, return on tangible equity >11.2% (building from an adjusted 2025 RoTE of 10% and an operating result of €4.5bn), and a risk result of ~€850m; management reiterated a 100% payout ratio after AT1 (proposing a €1.10 dividend and launching a up-to-€540m buyback after a €1bn buyback in December), while targeting 7% annual growth in net commission income and a 2028 RoTE target of 15%. They quantify key drivers and headwinds: an additional ~€600m NII contribution from the replication portfolio in 2026, a deposit beta moving from ~40% in 2025 to ~42% (c.€100m headwind) and ~€200m impact from deposits invested at floating rates, expected end‑2026 CET1 >14% (14.7% at year‑end 2025), SREP relief of 10bp (MDA ~6bp), 2025 capital returned €2.7bn (154bp CET1 effect; €5.8bn since 2022), mBank FX loan burdens of €483m in 2025 that should no longer be material in 2026, change budget increased to ~€600m (more allocated to AI), and an anticipated 2026 cost base approaching €7.1bn (2025 costs ~€6.9bn, with cost/income 57% in 2025).Commerzbank AG Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Commerzbank AG demonstrates strong revenue growth and profitability with a solid balance sheet. However, recent negative cash flow trends indicate potential liquidity issues that need addressing.Income Statement
Commerzbank AG has shown strong revenue growth over the years, with a notable increase from 2023 to 2024. The gross profit margin remains solid as the revenue equals the gross profit, indicating efficient cost management. However, the EBIT margin for 2024 is non-existent due to zero EBIT, which raises concerns about operational efficiency. Net profit margin is robust, reflecting effective bottom-line management.85
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
The bank's debt-to-equity ratio has improved as it shows no debt in 2024, reflecting a strong equity position. The return on equity has been increasing, showcasing effective utilization of equity. The equity ratio demonstrates a healthy balance sheet with significant equity compared to total assets. However, the large cash holdings might indicate underutilized resources.75
Positive
Cash Flow
The free cash flow has significantly decreased in 2024, moving from positive to negative, raising concerns about cash management. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, indicating cash flow challenges. Despite these issues, the company had strong cash flow in previous years, showing potential for recovery if managed effectively.60
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 24.70B | 25.25B | 21.71B | 14.26B | 12.06B | 11.37B |
| Gross Profit | 12.77B | 12.36B | 11.81B | 10.39B | 9.64B | 8.76B |
| EBITDA | 3.74B | 4.64B | 4.17B | 2.82B | 980.00M | -1.69B |
| Net Income | 2.69B | 2.68B | 2.22B | 1.44B | 430.00M | -2.87B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 581.82B | 554.65B | 517.17B | 477.43B | 467.41B | 506.61B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 72.46B | 89.72B | 102.69B | 86.65B | 60.21B | 81.21B |
| Total Debt | 75.83B | 54.89B | 48.25B | 43.77B | 43.84B | 46.12B |
| Total Liabilities | 546.59B | 518.93B | 484.16B | 446.50B | 437.58B | 478.04B |
| Stockholders Equity | 33.83B | 34.47B | 31.99B | 30.05B | 28.85B | 27.45B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 0.00 | -21.46B | 19.28B | 25.18B | -25.23B | 32.78B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 0.00 | -20.32B | 20.28B | 25.86B | -24.26B | 33.68B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -1.31B | -920.00M | -713.00M | -804.00M | -1.22B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 0.00 | 565.00M | -1.29B | 178.00M | -1.21B | 2.21B |
Commerzbank AG Technical Analysis
Neutral
40.52
Price Trends
40.06
Negative
39.45
Negative
37.76
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.44
Positive
45.53
Neutral
28.97
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CRZBY, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 40.52 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 38.29, above the 50-day MA of 40.06, and above the 200-day MA of 37.76, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.44 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.53 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 28.97 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for CRZBY.
Commerzbank AG Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $41.64B | 16.12 | 7.86% | 1.72% | -0.55% | 20.78% | |
72 Outperform | $80.98B | 10.18 | 11.88% | 3.11% | 1.79% | 30.93% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
65 Neutral | $79.49B | 10.95 | 12.12% | 3.77% | 2.91% | 33.77% | |
64 Neutral | $74.14B | 12.62 | 9.93% | 3.19% | -20.94% | -18.71% | |
62 Neutral | $55.61B | 11.75 | 8.15% | 4.12% | 22.02% | ― | |
57 Neutral | $95.03B | 10.79 | 9.73% | 2.31% | -2.84% | 25.48% |
* Financial Sector Average
CRZBY
Commerzbank AG
37.34
10.68
40.06%
TFC
Truist Financial
44.59
5.62
14.41%
LYG
Lloyds Banking
5.16
1.64
46.47%
MFG
Mizuho Financial
7.80
1.96
33.56%
PNC
PNC Financial
203.92
36.66
21.92%
USB
US Bancorp
51.58
10.70
26.16%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.