Crocs (CROX) AI Stock Analysis

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Crocs

(NASDAQ:CROX)

Rating:75Outperform

Price Target:

$118.00

▲(12.22%Upside)

Crocs' overall stock score reflects strong financial performance and attractive valuation, tempered by mixed technical indicators and uncertainty from the earnings call. The company's robust growth trajectory and effective cash management are significant strengths, while potential tariff impacts and the decline in HEYDUDE revenues are notable risks.

Positive Factors

International Revenue Growth

Strong international revenue growth for the Crocs brand and HEYDUDE sales were better than expected.

Stock Valuation

The stock is considered too cheap and could have favorable risk/reward.

Tariffs Reduction

Reducing tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% was not anticipated and is beneficial for CROX.

Negative Factors

Guidance Withdrawal

The tariff and demand outlook remains cloudy, leading to the withdrawal of FY25 guidance.

HEYDUDE Performance

HEYDUDE revenue growth estimates were significantly lowered, indicating challenges in that brand's performance.

Tariffs Impact

The unmitigated impact of universal 10% tariffs and 145% incremental China tariffs is estimated at $130 million, affecting margins.

Crocs (CROX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$5.69B

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)1.60M

Price to Earnings (P/E)6.3

Beta (1Y)0.89

Revenue Growth2.09%

EPS Growth26.18%

CountryUS

Employees7,910

SectorConsumer Cyclical

Sector Strength66

IndustryApparel - Footwear & Accessories

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)3.00

Shares Outstanding56,074,562

10 Day Avg. Volume1,237,598

30 Day Avg. Volume1,604,778

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio0.29

Price to Book (P/B)3.54

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio7.05

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.41

Enterprise Value/Revenue0.49

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.30

Enterprise Value/Ebitda1.83

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$127.86

Price Target Upside21.60% Upside

Rating ConsensusStrong Buy

Number of Analyst Covering8

Crocs Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCrocs, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, manufactures, markets, and distributes casual lifestyle footwear and accessories for men, women, and children. It offers various footwear products, including clogs, sandals, slides, flip-flops, boots, flats, wedges, platforms, socks, shoe charms, loafers, sneakers, and slippers under the Crocs brand name. The company sells its products in approximately 85 countries through wholesalers, retail stores, e-commerce sites, and third-party marketplaces. As of December 31, 2021, it had 193 outlet stores, 107 retail stores, 373 company-operated stores, 73 kiosks and store-in-stores, and 14 company-operated e-commerce sites. The company serves in the Americas, the Asia Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. Crocs, Inc. was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Broomfield, Colorado.

How the Company Makes MoneyCrocs generates revenue primarily through the sale of its footwear products. The company's key revenue streams include direct-to-consumer sales through its own retail stores and e-commerce platforms, as well as wholesale distribution to third-party retailers. Crocs benefits from its strong brand recognition and consumer loyalty, which drive sales across diverse markets. Additionally, strategic partnerships and collaborations with other brands and designers play a significant role in boosting brand visibility and expanding its customer base, contributing to increased sales and profitability.

Crocs Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Store Count by Brand

Store Count by Brand
Shows the number of physical stores for each brand under the company, indicating market presence and expansion strategy in various regions.

Chart InsightsCrocs' store count has shown a significant increase by the end of 2024, suggesting a strategic expansion effort, possibly to boost international sales, which grew 19%. Meanwhile, the Hey Dude brand is rapidly expanding its store presence, reflecting a recovery in its direct-to-consumer channel despite a full-year revenue decline. This expansion aligns with Crocs' focus on growth in new markets, particularly China, which saw a 64% revenue increase. However, challenges like North America's slow growth and external economic pressures could impact future store performance.

Data provided by:

Main Street Data

Crocs Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 08, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: 4.36%|

Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call presented a mixed outlook. While Crocs Inc. demonstrated strong revenue growth, particularly in international markets, and exceeded expectations in adjusted earnings, the company faced challenges with the decline in HEYDUDE revenues and gross margins. The suspension of guidance and potential tariff impacts added to the uncertainty, creating a balanced view of positive achievements and significant concerns.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Revenue Growth and Outperformance

Enterprise revenues of $937 million grew 1% to prior year, coming in ahead of the guidance which called for a revenue decline of approximately 1.5% on a constant currency basis.

Crocs Brand Revenue Growth

Crocs brand revenues of $762 million grew 4% to prior year, led by double-digit growth in International and outperforming in North America.

Strong Adjusted Gross and Operating Margins

Enterprise adjusted gross margins of 57.8% gained 180 basis points to prior year, and adjusted operating margins of 23.8% came in more than 200 basis points above guidance.

Adjusted Diluted EPS Exceeds Expectations

Adjusted diluted earnings per share was $3, nearly 20% above the high end of the guidance range.

International Revenue Growth

Crocs achieved 12% revenue growth in international markets, with China accelerating more than 30% compared to the prior year.

Negative Updates

HEYDUDE Revenue Decline

HEYDUDE revenues of $176 million were down 10% prior year, despite a direct to consumer growth of 8%.

Suspension of Guidance for 2025

Guidance for the full year 2025 was withdrawn due to uncertainty in global trade policies and unpredictable tariff impacts.

Potential Tariff Impact

The potential incremental tariff impact could translate to a cost of approximately $45-$130 million on an annualized cash basis, depending on tariff levels and sourcing mix.

North American Revenue Decline

North American business for Crocs was down 3% to prior year, despite exceeding expectations.

HEYDUDE Gross Margin Decrease

HEYDUDE brand adjusted gross margin of 46.6% was down 120 basis points to prior year due to deleverage against supply chain costs.

Company Guidance

During the Crocs Inc. First Quarter 2025 Earnings Call, guidance was withdrawn due to uncertainty surrounding evolving global trade policies and tariffs. Crocs reported enterprise revenues of $937 million, a 1% increase from the previous year, surpassing expectations of a 1.5% decline. The Crocs brand saw revenues of $762 million, up 4%, while HEYDUDE revenues decreased by 10% to $176 million, despite direct-to-consumer growth of 8%. Adjusted gross margins were reported at 57.8%, a 180 basis point increase, with adjusted operating margins at 23.8%, over 200 basis points above guidance. Additionally, adjusted diluted earnings per share were $3, approximately 20% above the high end of the guidance range. Crocs highlighted ongoing strategic investments and a well-diversified sourcing strategy, notably from Vietnam (47%) and Indonesia (17%), while also identifying $50 million in cost savings for 2025. Despite these achievements, the company is cautious about future tariffs potentially costing up to $130 million annually and is focused on mitigating these impacts through sourcing adjustments and potential price increases.

Crocs Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Crocs demonstrates strong financial performance with impressive revenue growth and robust margins. The income statement highlights significant increases in total revenue and profitability. Despite a moderate debt-to-equity ratio, the balance sheet is stable, and cash flow statements reflect efficient cash generation and management.

Income Statement

Very Positive

Crocs has shown impressive revenue growth over the years, with a significant increase in total revenue and gross profit. The gross profit margin is strong, reflecting effective cost management. Net profit margin and EBIT margin are robust, indicating high profitability. The consistent increase in revenue and margins suggests a healthy growth trajectory.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The company has a moderate debt-to-equity ratio, which indicates a balanced approach towards leveraging for growth. The return on equity is solid, reflecting efficient use of equity capital. The equity ratio shows a reasonable level of assets funded by equity, although there is room for enhancement in financial stability by further reducing liabilities.

Cash Flow

Very Positive

Crocs demonstrates strong cash flow performance with consistent free cash flow growth. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy, suggesting effective conversion of profits into cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio is also commendable, showing efficient cash management practices.

TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
4.10B	4.10B	3.96B	3.55B	2.31B	1.39B
	Gross Profit
2.43B	2.41B	2.21B	1.86B	1.42B	749.95M
	EBIT
1.02B	1.02B	1.05B	850.76M	683.06M	214.12M
	EBITDA
1.10B	1.09B	1.09B	893.89M	717.47M	241.34M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
957.72M	950.07M	792.57M	540.16M	725.69M	312.86M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
125.69M	180.49M	149.29M	191.63M	213.20M	135.80M
	Total Assets
4.60B	4.81B	4.64B	4.50B	1.55B	1.12B
	Total Debt
2.55B	1.70B	2.00B	2.59B	963.56M	373.46M
	Net Debt
2.42B	1.52B	1.85B	2.40B	750.36M	237.66M
	Total Liabilities
3.63B	2.98B	3.19B	3.68B	1.53B	828.09M
	Stockholders Equity
968.50M	1.84B	1.45B	817.93M	14.08M	290.63M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
951.09M	923.14M	814.82M	498.95M	511.25M	224.87M
	Operating Cash Flow
1.02B	992.49M	930.44M	603.14M	567.16M	266.90M
	Investing Cash Flow
-68.97M	-69.35M	-115.67M	-2.15B	-55.92M	-41.76M
	Financing Cash Flow
-875.05M	-886.05M	-859.64M	1.53B	-429.64M	-198.04M

Crocs Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price105.15

Price Trends

50DMA

102.40

Positive

100DMA

102.53

Positive

200DMA

112.11

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.85

Positive

RSI

50.62

Neutral

STOCH

39.70

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CROX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 105.15 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 108.39, above the 50-day MA of 102.40, and below the 200-day MA of 112.11, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.85 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.62 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 39.70 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CROX.

Crocs Risk Analysis

Crocs disclosed 41 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Crocs reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Crocs Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (63)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
DECK	79 Outperform	$16.44B	17.36	41.82%	―	16.22%	29.52%
SHOO	77 Outperform	$1.89B	11.19	19.51%	3.22%	10.17%	-4.71%
BIRK	76 Outperform	$10.49B	38.83	9.35%	―	18.55%	147.70%
CROX	75 Outperform	$5.69B	6.27	53.70%	―	2.09%	26.18%
SKX	72 Outperform	$9.29B	14.94	14.67%	―	10.66%	9.44%
WWW	68 Neutral	$1.44B	20.02	25.29%	2.15%	-13.05%	―
Sector *	63 Neutral	$6.96B	11.51	2.80%	3.85%	2.70%	-24.43%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

CROX

Crocs

105.15

-49.38

-31.95%

DECK

Deckers Outdoor

110.00

-63.72

-36.68%

SKX

Skechers USA

62.58

-11.27

-15.26%

SHOO

Steven Madden

25.96

-16.62

-39.03%

WWW

Wolverine World Wide

18.79

6.03

47.26%

BIRK

Birkenstock Holding plc

55.84

-3.30

-5.58%

Crocs Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy

Crocs Promotes Terence Reilly to Chief Brand Officer

Positive

May 21, 2025

On May 21, 2025, Crocs, Inc. announced the promotion of Terence Reilly to Executive Vice President, Chief Brand Officer, where he will oversee marketing and communications for both Crocs and HEYDUDE brands. This leadership change aims to enhance the company’s global narrative, deepen consumer engagement, and drive brand growth, with CEO Andrew Rees temporarily assuming the role of interim President for HEYDUDE until a permanent structure is established.

The most recent analyst rating on (CROX) stock is a Buy with a $110.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Crocs stock, see the CROX Stock Forecast page.

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.