Crocs (CROX) AI Stock Analysis

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Crocs

(NASDAQ:CROX)

77Outperform

Crocs demonstrates strong financial performance and cost management with effective growth strategies, especially in international markets. However, technical analysis indicates potential downward pressure, and valuation remains appealing with a low P/E ratio. Earnings call highlights are positive, though challenges such as North American growth and external factors like tariffs persist.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

CROX posted upside and provided a much better than expected guide for 2025.

Revenue Growth

Crocs brand is expected to achieve medium single-digit growth, with promising potential in international markets like China, India, and Western Europe.

Stock Valuation

Shares are considered too cheap, particularly given the consistently solid performance at the Crocs brand.

Negative Factors

Brand Performance

HEYDUDE revenue growth estimates were significantly lowered, indicating challenges in the brand's performance.

Market Outlook

Retailers in the U.S. are planning the 2025 Crocs business flat and the 2025 HEYDUDE business down.

Tariffs and Foreign Exchange

The impact of foreign exchange headwinds and tariffs is expected to negatively affect margins.

Crocs (CROX) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Market Cap

$5.39B

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)2.01M

Price to Earnings (P/E)6.0

Beta (1Y)0.88

Revenue Growth3.53%

EPS Growth24.55%

CountryUS

Employees7,910

SectorConsumer Cyclical

Sector Strength67

IndustryApparel - Footwear & Accessories

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)15.98

Shares Outstanding56,056,160

10 Day Avg. Volume1,565,440

30 Day Avg. Volume2,006,364

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio0.25

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)0.00

P/FCF Ratio0.00

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.46

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.27

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$128.60

Price Target Upside33.82% Upside

Rating ConsensusStrong Buy

Number of Analyst Covering10

Crocs Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCrocs, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, manufactures, markets, and distributes casual lifestyle footwear and accessories for men, women, and children. It offers various footwear products, including clogs, sandals, slides, flip-flops, boots, flats, wedges, platforms, socks, shoe charms, loafers, sneakers, and slippers under the Crocs brand name. The company sells its products in approximately 85 countries through wholesalers, retail stores, e-commerce sites, and third-party marketplaces. As of December 31, 2021, it had 193 outlet stores, 107 retail stores, 373 company-operated stores, 73 kiosks and store-in-stores, and 14 company-operated e-commerce sites. The company serves in the Americas, the Asia Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. Crocs, Inc. was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Broomfield, Colorado.

How the Company Makes MoneyCrocs makes money primarily through the sale of its footwear products, which are distributed globally via a multi-channel approach that includes direct-to-consumer sales through its branded retail stores and e-commerce platforms, as well as wholesale agreements with various retail partners. The company's revenue streams are bolstered by its strong brand recognition and the high demand for its distinctive products. Collaborations with popular brands and celebrities also play a significant role in driving sales and expanding market reach. Additionally, Crocs strategically leverages marketing campaigns and customer engagement initiatives to enhance brand loyalty and boost sales across different regions.

Crocs Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Store Count by Brand

Store Count by Brand
Shows the number of retail locations for each brand under Crocs, providing insight into market penetration, brand expansion strategy, and potential revenue streams from physical retail presence.

Chart InsightsCrocs' store count has shown a significant increase by the end of 2024, suggesting a strategic expansion effort, possibly to boost international sales, which grew 19%. Meanwhile, the Hey Dude brand is rapidly expanding its store presence, reflecting a recovery in its direct-to-consumer channel despite a full-year revenue decline. This expansion aligns with Crocs' focus on growth in new markets, particularly China, which saw a 64% revenue increase. However, challenges like North America's slow growth and external economic pressures could impact future store performance.

Data provided by:

Main Street Data

Crocs Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Crocs showcases strong financial performance with robust revenue and profit margins, effective cost management, and efficient cash flow. However, the balance sheet indicates a moderate leverage that could be improved.

Income Statement

Very Positive

Crocs has shown impressive revenue growth over the years, with a significant increase in total revenue and gross profit. The gross profit margin is strong, reflecting effective cost management. Net profit margin and EBIT margin are robust, indicating high profitability. The consistent increase in revenue and margins suggests a healthy growth trajectory.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The company has a moderate debt-to-equity ratio, which indicates a balanced approach towards leveraging for growth. The return on equity is solid, reflecting efficient use of equity capital. The equity ratio shows a reasonable level of assets funded by equity, although there is room for enhancement in financial stability by further reducing liabilities.

Cash Flow

Very Positive

Crocs demonstrates strong cash flow performance with consistent free cash flow growth. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy, suggesting effective conversion of profits into cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio is also commendable, showing efficient cash management practices.

Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
4.10B	3.96B	3.55B	2.31B	1.39B
	Gross Profit
2.41B	2.21B	1.86B	1.42B	749.95M
	EBIT
1.02B	1.05B	850.76M	683.06M	214.12M
	EBITDA
1.02B	1.09B	893.89M	717.47M	241.34M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
950.07M	792.57M	540.16M	725.69M	312.86M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
180.49M	149.29M	191.63M	213.20M	135.80M
	Total Assets
4.81B	4.64B	4.50B	1.55B	1.12B
	Total Debt
351.96M	2.00B	2.59B	963.56M	373.46M
	Net Debt
171.47M	1.85B	2.40B	750.36M	237.66M
	Total Liabilities
2.98B	3.19B	3.68B	1.53B	828.09M
	Stockholders Equity
1.84B	1.45B	817.93M	14.08M	290.63M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
923.14M	814.82M	498.95M	511.25M	224.87M
	Operating Cash Flow
992.49M	930.44M	603.14M	567.16M	266.90M
	Investing Cash Flow
-69.35M	-115.67M	-2.15B	-55.92M	-41.76M
	Financing Cash Flow
-886.05M	-859.64M	1.53B	-429.64M	-198.04M

Crocs Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price96.10

Price Trends

50DMA

101.06

Negative

100DMA

103.52

Negative

200DMA

115.80

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-1.75

Negative

RSI

48.20

Neutral

STOCH

74.51

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CROX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 96.1 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 95.89, below the 50-day MA of 101.06, and below the 200-day MA of 115.80, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.75 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.20 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 74.51 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CROX.

Crocs Risk Analysis

Crocs disclosed 41 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Crocs reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Crocs Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (60)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
DECK	83 Outperform	$16.57B	17.72	39.80%	―	19.40%	32.70%
CROX	77 Outperform	$5.39B	6.02	57.76%	―	3.53%	24.55%
SKX	73 Outperform	$7.44B	11.92	14.67%	―	10.66%	9.44%
SHOO	70 Outperform	$1.52B	8.89	20.20%	4.04%	15.03%	1.51%
COLM	61 Neutral	$3.53B	16.77	12.01%	1.85%	-3.35%	-6.09%
WWW	61 Neutral	$1.05B	22.43	15.57%	3.14%	-21.75%	―
Sector *	60 Neutral	$6.87B	11.73	3.11%	4.16%	2.36%	-22.03%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

CROX

Crocs

96.10

-28.27

-22.73%

COLM

Columbia Sportswear

62.74

-15.74

-20.06%

DECK

Deckers Outdoor

111.69

-24.72

-18.12%

SKX

Skechers USA

48.68

-17.37

-26.30%

SHOO

Steven Madden

20.97

-18.58

-46.98%

WWW

Wolverine World Wide

13.11

2.63

25.10%

Crocs Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 13, 2025

(Q4-2024)

% Change Since: 8.18%|

Next Earnings Date:May 08, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

Crocs, Inc. reported strong revenue growth and financial performance for 2024 with successful debt reduction and share buybacks. However, challenges such as slowed growth in North America, a decline in HEYDUDE revenues, and external factors like tariffs and currency fluctuations present obstacles. The overall sentiment of the call is cautiously optimistic as the company focuses on addressing these challenges.

Q4-2024 Updates

Positive Updates

Record Revenue and Growth

Crocs, Inc. achieved $4.1 billion in total revenues for the full year of 2024, marking a 4% increase compared to the prior year. The Crocs Brand grew by 10%, with international growth at 19% and North America at 3%.

Strong Financial Performance

The company reported adjusted gross margins of 58.8%, a 230 basis point increase over the prior year, and an adjusted operating margin of 25.6%. Adjusted diluted EPS increased by 9% to $13.17.

Successful Debt Reduction and Share Buybacks

Crocs generated $923 million in free cash flow, allowing them to pay down $323 million in debt and repurchase approximately 4.3 million shares for $551 million.

HEYDUDE Brand Recovery

HEYDUDE Brand revenues stabilized, with the fourth quarter showing flat growth compared to the prior year and a 7% increase in the direct-to-consumer channel.

Strong Performance in China

China revenues grew 64% year-over-year, making it the second-largest market after the US. The growth was balanced, reflecting positive comp store sales, digital growth, and new store growth.

Negative Updates

North America Growth Challenges

North America revenues grew only 3% compared to the prior year, with wholesale declines and a challenging consumer environment impacting growth.

HEYDUDE Brand Decline

For the full year, HEYDUDE revenues were down 13% compared to the prior year, with wholesale revenues down 20% and a decrease of 4% in the direct-to-consumer channel.

Impact of Tariffs and Currency Fluctuations

The company expects a $11 million headwind to gross profit from tariffs and a $60 million currency headwind for the year 2025.

Anticipated Decline in Q1 2025 Revenues

Enterprise revenues for Q1 2025 are expected to be down approximately 3.5% on a reported basis due to currency and Easter timing impacts.

Company Guidance

During the Crocs Fourth Quarter 2024 Earnings Call, the company reported several key financial metrics and provided guidance for 2025. Crocs achieved a 4% revenue growth for the full year 2024, totaling $4.1 billion, with an adjusted gross margin of 58.8%, marking a 230 basis point increase over the previous year. The Crocs Brand revenues grew 10% to $3.3 billion, with international sales up 19% and North America up 3%. The HEYDUDE Brand generated $824 million, with a return to growth in the direct-to-consumer channel in the fourth quarter. The company generated $923 million in free cash flow, enabling debt reduction and share repurchases. For 2025, Crocs anticipates a 2% to 2.5% revenue growth on a reported basis and an adjusted operating margin of approximately 24%, despite expected foreign currency and tariff impacts. The company plans continued investments in marketing and talent and expects adjusted diluted EPS between $12.70 and $13.15.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.