Crocs (CROX) AI Stock Analysis

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Crocs

(NASDAQ:CROX)

Rating:77Outperform

Price Target:

$117.00

▲(9.21%Upside)

Crocs' overall stock score reflects its strong financial performance and attractive valuation, tempered by mixed technical indicators and uncertainties highlighted in the earnings call. Strategic initiatives and corporate decisions provide a positive outlook, though caution is advised regarding potential market and operational risks.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

The company reported very encouraging Q1 results, with strong core performance and positive commentary around tariffs.

International Expansion

Strong international revenue growth for the Crocs brand and HEYDUDE sales were better than expected.

Negative Factors

Guidance Uncertainty

Given uncertainty related to tariffs, the company chose not to guide Q2 and withdrew the FY25 outlook.

Tariffs Impact

The unmitigated impact of universal 10% tariffs and 145% incremental China tariffs is estimated at $130 million, affecting margins.

Crocs (CROX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$5.78B

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)1.30M

Price to Earnings (P/E)6.2

Beta (1Y)0.93

Revenue Growth2.09%

EPS Growth26.18%

CountryUS

Employees7,910

SectorConsumer Cyclical

Sector Strength57

IndustryApparel - Footwear & Accessories

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)3.00

Shares Outstanding56,074,562

10 Day Avg. Volume1,303,501

30 Day Avg. Volume1,298,314

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio2.83

Price to Book (P/B)2.82

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio5.84

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.00

Enterprise Value/Revenue0.35

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.38

Enterprise Value/Ebitda1.32

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$127.50

Price Target Upside19.01% Upside

Rating ConsensusStrong Buy

Number of Analyst Covering7

Crocs Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCrocs, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, manufactures, markets, and distributes casual lifestyle footwear and accessories for men, women, and children. It offers various footwear products, including clogs, sandals, slides, flip-flops, boots, flats, wedges, platforms, socks, shoe charms, loafers, sneakers, and slippers under the Crocs brand name. The company sells its products in approximately 85 countries through wholesalers, retail stores, e-commerce sites, and third-party marketplaces. As of December 31, 2021, it had 193 outlet stores, 107 retail stores, 373 company-operated stores, 73 kiosks and store-in-stores, and 14 company-operated e-commerce sites. The company serves in the Americas, the Asia Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. Crocs, Inc. was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Broomfield, Colorado.

How the Company Makes MoneyCrocs generates revenue primarily through the sale of its footwear products. The company's key revenue streams include direct-to-consumer sales through its own retail stores and e-commerce platforms, as well as wholesale distribution to third-party retailers. Crocs benefits from its strong brand recognition and consumer loyalty, which drive sales across diverse markets. Additionally, strategic partnerships and collaborations with other brands and designers play a significant role in boosting brand visibility and expanding its customer base, contributing to increased sales and profitability.

Crocs Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Store Count by Brand

Store Count by Brand
Shows the number of physical stores for each brand under the company, indicating market presence and expansion strategy in various regions.

Chart InsightsCrocs' store count has shown a significant increase by the end of 2024, suggesting a strategic expansion effort, possibly to boost international sales, which grew 19%. Meanwhile, the Hey Dude brand is rapidly expanding its store presence, reflecting a recovery in its direct-to-consumer channel despite a full-year revenue decline. This expansion aligns with Crocs' focus on growth in new markets, particularly China, which saw a 64% revenue increase. However, challenges like North America's slow growth and external economic pressures could impact future store performance.

Data provided by:

Main Street Data

Crocs Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 08, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: 6.32%|

Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call presented a mixed outlook. While Crocs Inc. demonstrated strong revenue growth, particularly in international markets, and exceeded expectations in adjusted earnings, the company faced challenges with the decline in HEYDUDE revenues and gross margins. The suspension of guidance and potential tariff impacts added to the uncertainty, creating a balanced view of positive achievements and significant concerns.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Revenue Growth and Outperformance

Enterprise revenues of $937 million grew 1% to prior year, coming in ahead of the guidance which called for a revenue decline of approximately 1.5% on a constant currency basis.

Crocs Brand Revenue Growth

Crocs brand revenues of $762 million grew 4% to prior year, led by double-digit growth in International and outperforming in North America.

Strong Adjusted Gross and Operating Margins

Enterprise adjusted gross margins of 57.8% gained 180 basis points to prior year, and adjusted operating margins of 23.8% came in more than 200 basis points above guidance.

Adjusted Diluted EPS Exceeds Expectations

Adjusted diluted earnings per share was $3, nearly 20% above the high end of the guidance range.

International Revenue Growth

Crocs achieved 12% revenue growth in international markets, with China accelerating more than 30% compared to the prior year.

Negative Updates

HEYDUDE Revenue Decline

HEYDUDE revenues of $176 million were down 10% prior year, despite a direct to consumer growth of 8%.

Suspension of Guidance for 2025

Guidance for the full year 2025 was withdrawn due to uncertainty in global trade policies and unpredictable tariff impacts.

Potential Tariff Impact

The potential incremental tariff impact could translate to a cost of approximately $45-$130 million on an annualized cash basis, depending on tariff levels and sourcing mix.

North American Revenue Decline

North American business for Crocs was down 3% to prior year, despite exceeding expectations.

HEYDUDE Gross Margin Decrease

HEYDUDE brand adjusted gross margin of 46.6% was down 120 basis points to prior year due to deleverage against supply chain costs.

Company Guidance

During the Crocs Inc. First Quarter 2025 Earnings Call, guidance was withdrawn due to uncertainty surrounding evolving global trade policies and tariffs. Crocs reported enterprise revenues of $937 million, a 1% increase from the previous year, surpassing expectations of a 1.5% decline. The Crocs brand saw revenues of $762 million, up 4%, while HEYDUDE revenues decreased by 10% to $176 million, despite direct-to-consumer growth of 8%. Adjusted gross margins were reported at 57.8%, a 180 basis point increase, with adjusted operating margins at 23.8%, over 200 basis points above guidance. Additionally, adjusted diluted earnings per share were $3, approximately 20% above the high end of the guidance range. Crocs highlighted ongoing strategic investments and a well-diversified sourcing strategy, notably from Vietnam (47%) and Indonesia (17%), while also identifying $50 million in cost savings for 2025. Despite these achievements, the company is cautious about future tariffs potentially costing up to $130 million annually and is focused on mitigating these impacts through sourcing adjustments and potential price increases.

Crocs Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Crocs demonstrates strong profitability and efficient cash flow management, with robust margins and solid financial growth. However, moderate leverage poses a potential risk that requires careful management.

Income Statement

Very Positive

Crocs has demonstrated strong revenue growth over the years, with TTM revenue at $4.1 billion, up from $2.3 billion in 2021. The gross profit margin in TTM is healthy at approximately 59.2%, and the net profit margin is robust at 23.4%. These margins indicate effective cost management and strong pricing power. EBIT and EBITDA margins also reflect operational efficiency, standing at 24.8% and 26.7%, respectively. Despite a slight revenue dip in the TTM compared to 2024, overall growth trajectory remains positive.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The company's debt-to-equity ratio has improved, with total debt decreasing significantly in TTM. The debt-to-equity ratio is approximately 0.19, indicating a more manageable leverage level. ROE has been strong, particularly due to increasing net income, reaching 48.6% in the TTM. The equity ratio has also improved to about 38.9%, suggesting a solid financial position. However, the balance sheet still reflects moderate leverage, which poses a potential risk if not managed carefully.

Cash Flow

Very Positive

Crocs has shown excellent cash flow management with an impressive increase in free cash flow to $951 million in TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is near 1, indicating that earnings are well-supported by cash flow. The free cash flow to net income ratio is also strong at nearly 1, signifying efficient capital expenditure. The company has maintained a solid cash position and effectively reduced capital expenditures, enhancing cash flow stability.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.10B	4.10B	3.96B	3.55B	2.31B	1.39B
Gross Profit	2.43B	2.41B	2.21B	1.86B	1.42B	749.95M
EBITDA	1.10B	1.09B	1.09B	893.89M	717.47M	241.34M
Net Income	957.72M	950.07M	792.57M	540.16M	725.69M	312.86M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.07B	4.81B	4.64B	4.50B	1.55B	1.12B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	166.46M	180.49M	149.29M	191.63M	213.20M	135.80M
Total Debt	380.98M	1.70B	2.00B	2.59B	963.56M	373.46M
Total Liabilities	3.10B	2.98B	3.19B	3.68B	1.53B	828.09M
Stockholders Equity	1.97B	1.84B	1.45B	817.93M	14.08M	290.63M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	951.09M	923.14M	814.82M	498.95M	511.25M	224.87M
Operating Cash Flow	952.83M	992.49M	930.44M	603.14M	567.16M	266.90M
Investing Cash Flow	-68.97M	-69.35M	-115.67M	-2.15B	-55.92M	-41.76M
Financing Cash Flow	-875.05M	-886.05M	-859.64M	1.53B	-429.64M	-198.04M

Crocs Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price107.13

Price Trends

50DMA

103.55

Positive

100DMA

102.39

Positive

200DMA

109.54

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.62

Negative

RSI

57.98

Neutral

STOCH

86.48

Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CROX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 107.13 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 101.21, above the 50-day MA of 103.55, and below the 200-day MA of 109.54, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.62 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.98 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 86.48 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CROX.

Crocs Risk Analysis

Crocs disclosed 41 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Crocs reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Crocs Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
DECK	79 Outperform	$15.57B	16.27	41.82%	―	16.22%	29.52%
CROX	77 Outperform	$5.78B	6.21	53.70%	―	2.09%	26.18%
BIRK	77 Outperform	$9.21B	34.10	9.35%	―	18.55%	147.70%
SHOO	74 Outperform	$1.78B	10.59	19.51%	3.50%	10.17%	-4.71%
SKX	72 Outperform	$9.44B	15.18	14.67%	―	10.66%	9.44%
WWW	68 Neutral	$1.55B	21.52	25.29%	2.21%	-13.05%	―
Sector *	61 Neutral	C$5.19B	11.12	18.94%	3.83%	5.08%	6.52%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

CROX

Crocs

107.13

-40.77

-27.57%

DECK

Deckers Outdoor

105.40

-50.55

-32.41%

SKX

Skechers USA

63.12

-4.20

-6.24%

SHOO

Steven Madden

25.20

-15.74

-38.45%

WWW

Wolverine World Wide

19.08

6.40

50.47%

BIRK

Birkenstock Holding plc

49.03

-7.47

-13.22%

Crocs Corporate Events

Shareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy

Crocs Confirms Key Decisions at Annual Meeting

Positive

Jun 11, 2025

On June 10, 2025, Crocs, Inc. held its annual meeting of stockholders virtually, where key decisions were made. The election of Class II directors, the ratification of Deloitte & Touche LLP as the independent auditor for 2025, and the approval of executive compensation were all confirmed, indicating continued stability and strategic direction for the company.

The most recent analyst rating on (CROX) stock is a Buy with a $110.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Crocs stock, see the CROX Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy

Crocs Promotes Terence Reilly to Chief Brand Officer

Positive

May 21, 2025

On May 21, 2025, Crocs, Inc. announced the promotion of Terence Reilly to Executive Vice President, Chief Brand Officer, where he will oversee marketing and communications for both Crocs and HEYDUDE brands. This leadership change aims to enhance the company’s global narrative, deepen consumer engagement, and drive brand growth, with CEO Andrew Rees temporarily assuming the role of interim President for HEYDUDE until a permanent structure is established.

The most recent analyst rating on (CROX) stock is a Buy with a $110.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Crocs stock, see the CROX Stock Forecast page.

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jun 28, 2025