Deckers Outdoor (DECK) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $16.43B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 3.02M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 16.3
• Beta (1Y): 1.27
• Revenue Growth: 12.38%
• EPS Growth: 18.43%
• Country: US
• Employees: 4,800
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Apparel - Footwear & Accessories
• EPS (TTM): 3.33
• Shares Outstanding: 141,949,970
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,585,748
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,020,248
• PEG Ratio: 0.59
• Price to Book (P/B): 6.76
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.41
• P/FCF Ratio: 17.73
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.92
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.81
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.89
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 11.07
• 1Y Price Target: $123.67
• Price Target Upside: 6.86% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 19
• EPS Forecast (FY): 6.88
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $5.44B

• Rating: 83 Outperform
• Price Target: $132.00 ▲(14.06% Upside)

DECK scores well primarily on strong financial performance (industry-leading margins, high ROE, low leverage) and a positive earnings update with raised full-year guidance and sizable buybacks. Technicals are supportive but somewhat stretched (high stochastics), while valuation is reasonable at ~16x earnings with no dividend yield provided. Tariff-related margin pressure and softer recent cash-flow momentum are the key offsets.

Positive Factors

Strong Profitability and Margins

Deckers exhibits industry-leading profitability with sustainably high gross and operating margins that support durable cash flow generation. Consistently wide gross margins provide pricing power, fund marketing/product investment, and create structural resilience versus peers over the next several quarters.

Conservative Balance Sheet / Low Leverage

Very low leverage and a materially larger equity base give Deckers financial flexibility for capex, M&A, or buybacks without straining liquidity. The conservative capital structure reduces refinancing risk and supports sustained investment in growth initiatives and brand building over a multi-quarter horizon.

Robust Cash Generation & Capital Returns

Strong operating cash flow and high free cash flow allow meaningful share repurchases and reinvestment. The company’s large cash balance and active buyback program signal disciplined capital allocation, which can enhance EPS and shareholder value over multiple quarters absent major disruptions.

Negative Factors

Tariff-Driven Margin Risk

Material tariff exposure can meaningfully compress margins if sustained or expanded. Even with partial mitigation, an ongoing policy shift could erode pricing leverage and require durable cost or channel adjustments, pressuring profitability and cash flow through the next several quarters.

Rising Inventory and Softening Cash-Momentum

Higher inventories and negative TTM FCF growth indicate working-capital timing or demand mismatches that can strain near-term cash conversion. Elevated inventory tied to tariffs raises carrying-cost risk and could require markdowns or slower cash recovery if sell-through weakens, impacting liquidity.

Underpenetrated HOKA Distribution / Scaling Risk

Meaningful upside resides in growing HOKA distribution, but the current underpenetration requires substantial wholesale execution, channel investment, and inventory support. Rapid scaling risks overextension, inconsistent sell-through, and executional costs that could temper margin and growth sustainability.

Deckers Outdoor Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Deckers Outdoor Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, designs, markets, and distributes footwear, apparel, and accessories for casual lifestyle use and high-performance activities. The company offers premium footwear, apparel, and accessories under the UGG brand name; sandals, shoes, and boots under the Teva brand name; and relaxed casual shoes and sandals under the Sanuk brand name. It also provides footwear and apparel for ultra-runners and athletes under the Hoka brand name; and fashion casual footwear using other plush materials under the Koolaburra brand. The company sells its products through department stores, domestic independent action sports and outdoor specialty footwear retailers, and larger national retail chains, as well as online retailers. It also sells its products directly to consumers through its retail stores and e-commerce websites, as well as distributes its products through distributors and retailers in the United States, Europe, the Asia-Pacific, Canada, Latin America, and internationally. As of March 31, 2022, it had 149 retail stores, including 75 concept stores and 74 outlet stores worldwide. The company was founded in 1973 and is headquartered in Goleta, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Deckers Outdoor generates revenue primarily through the sale of its branded products across various channels, including wholesale, direct-to-consumer (DTC), and e-commerce. The wholesale segment involves selling products to retailers and distributors, while the DTC segment includes sales made through company-owned retail stores and online platforms. A significant portion of Deckers' earnings comes from the UGG brand, particularly during the fall and winter seasons, while HOKA ONE ONE has seen rapid growth in recent years, contributing to increased market share in the performance running category. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships with various retailers and e-commerce platforms, enhancing its distribution capabilities. Additionally, Deckers focuses on product innovation and marketing initiatives to attract and retain customers, which further drives sales and revenue growth.

Deckers Outdoor Financial Statement Overview

Summary

High-quality fundamentals: strong and improving profitability (TTM gross margin ~57.5%, EBIT margin ~25.1%, net margin ~19.3%), low leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.11–0.13), and excellent ROE (~41% TTM). Cash generation is solid (TTM FCF ~$0.93B), but near-term cash-flow momentum is softer (TTM FCF growth ~-5% and slightly weaker cash conversion vs. net income), and growth is normalizing versus prior years.

Income Statement

DECK shows strong, consistent profitability with expanding margins over the multi-year period. Annual revenue rose from ~$2.5B (2021) to ~$5.0B (2025), and TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue is ~$5.37B, signaling continued scale. Profitability is a standout: TTM gross margin ~57.5% and net margin ~19.3%, with EBIT margin ~25.1%—all strong for the industry and improved versus earlier years. The main weakness is growth normalization: after strong annual growth in prior years, the latest annual growth is more modest, and TTM growth is listed as very high, suggesting volatility or a potentially non-comparable period that warrants caution.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is conservatively levered and strengthening. Debt remains low versus equity (debt-to-equity ~0.11–0.13 across the latest periods), while equity has expanded meaningfully from ~$1.44B (2021) to ~$2.51B (2025), supporting flexibility. Returns are excellent, with return on equity rising from ~26.5% (2021) to ~38.4% (2025) and ~41.4% in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), indicating efficient capital use. The key watch item is that total debt has ticked up in TTM versus 2025 annual, though still at a very manageable level.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is strong and generally tracks earnings well. Operating cash flow is robust at ~$1.04B (2025 annual) and ~$1.01B in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), and free cash flow is similarly strong (~$0.96B annual; ~$0.93B TTM). Free cash flow runs at roughly ~92% of net income in both 2025 and TTM, reflecting good earnings quality. The main weakness is recent momentum: TTM free cash flow growth is negative (about -5%), and TTM operating cash flow is modestly below net income (coverage < 1), suggesting near-term working-capital or timing headwinds compared with the stronger conversion seen in prior annual periods.

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	5.37B	4.99B	4.29B	3.63B	3.15B	2.55B
Gross Profit	3.09B	2.89B	2.39B	1.83B	1.61B	1.37B
EBITDA	1.37B	1.32B	1.04B	716.87M	609.60M	548.07M
Net Income	1.04B	966.09M	759.56M	516.82M	451.95M	382.57M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	4.10B	3.63B	3.14B	2.56B	2.33B	2.17B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.09B	1.89B	1.50B	981.79M	843.53M	1.09B
Total Debt	342.88M	276.98M	266.88M	246.49M	222.07M	223.04M
Total Liabilities	1.49B	1.12B	1.03B	790.47M	793.42M	723.48M
Stockholders Equity	2.61B	2.51B	2.11B	1.77B	1.54B	1.44B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	929.14M	958.35M	943.82M	456.40M	121.34M	564.00M
Operating Cash Flow	1.01B	1.04B	1.03B	537.42M	172.35M	596.22M
Investing Cash Flow	-83.97M	-75.00M	-89.33M	-81.01M	-51.01M	-32.17M
Financing Cash Flow	-1.09B	-581.33M	-417.68M	-309.03M	-367.48M	-129.58M

Deckers Outdoor Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 115.73
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DECK, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 115.73 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 108.31, above the 50-day MA of 104.73, and above the 200-day MA of 104.48, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.87 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.21 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 59.23 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for DECK.

Deckers Outdoor Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
DECK	83 Outperform	$16.43B	16.35	39.69%	―	12.38%	18.43%
BIRK	72 Outperform	$7.32B	17.37	13.95%	―	18.86%	88.29%
SHOO	64 Neutral	$2.85B	49.77	6.68%	1.97%	6.26%	-66.51%
CROX	62 Neutral	$4.87B	-77.02	-5.19%	―	<0.01%	-77.31%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
WWW	58 Neutral	$1.44B	16.79	25.57%	2.28%	3.61%	―