Deckers Outdoor (DECK)
NYSE:DECK
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Deckers Outdoor
(NYSE:DECK)
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Rating:83Outperform
Price Target:
$110.00
▲(15.83% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/04/26
DECK scores well primarily on strong financial performance (industry-leading margins, high ROE, low leverage) and a positive earnings update with raised full-year guidance and sizable buybacks. Technicals are supportive but somewhat stretched (high stochastics), while valuation is reasonable at ~16x earnings with no dividend yield provided. Tariff-related margin pressure and softer recent cash-flow momentum are the key offsets.
Positive Factors
Superior profit margins
Deckers’ margins are industry-leading and sustained across recent periods, reflecting strong pricing power, high full-price sell-through, and favorable product mix. Durable margin structure supports recurring cash generation and cushions earnings against cyclical volatility.
Negative Factors
Material tariff exposure
Significant tariff costs present an ongoing structural margin risk because policy changes can persist or widen. Even with partial offsetting actions, tariffs reduce operating leverage and constrain sustainable margin expansion until supply or sourcing is structurally adjusted.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Superior profit margins
Deckers’ margins are industry-leading and sustained across recent periods, reflecting strong pricing power, high full-price sell-through, and favorable product mix. Durable margin structure supports recurring cash generation and cushions earnings against cyclical volatility.
Read all positive factors
Deckers Outdoor (DECK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$13.48B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.16M
Price to Earnings (P/E)7.9
Beta (1Y)1.33
Revenue Growth12.38%
EPS Growth18.43%
CountryUS
Employees4,800
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryApparel - Footwear & Accessories
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.33
Shares Outstanding141,949,970
10 Day Avg. Volume2,306,914
30 Day Avg. Volume2,159,316
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.59
Price to Book (P/B)6.76
Price to Sales (P/S)3.41
P/FCF Ratio17.73
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.95
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.39
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.15
Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.41
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$124.47Price Target Upside31.06% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering20
EPS Forecast (FY)7.33
Revenue Forecast (FY)$5.82B
Deckers Outdoor Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Deckers Outdoor Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, designs, markets, and distributes footwear, apparel, and accessories for casual lifestyle use and high-performance activities. The company offers premium footwear, apparel, and accessori...
How the Company Makes Money
Deckers makes money primarily by selling branded footwear (and to a lesser extent apparel and accessories) through two main routes: (1) wholesale and (2) direct-to-consumer (DTC). In wholesale, Deckers sells products in bulk to third-party retaile...
Deckers Outdoor Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Examines revenue from different business segments, providing insight into which product lines or services are driving growth and which may need strategic adjustments.
Examines revenue from different business segments, providing insight into which product lines or services are driving growth and which may need strategic adjustments.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyDeckers Outdoor Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 29, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 21, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated strong, broad-based operational and financial momentum: record quarterly revenue and EPS, raised full-year guidance, robust brand performance (HOKA and UGG), healthy cash and an aggressive share-repurchase program. Key risks discussed were tariff headwinds, higher inventory, and some quarter-to-quarter timing effects. On balance, positive operational execution and upgraded guidance materially outweigh the identified risks.Positive Updates
Record Quarterly Revenue
Q3 revenue of $1.96 billion, up 7% year-over-year.
Negative Updates
Tariff Headwinds
Company estimates unmitigated tariff impact for FY26 of ~$110 million; net tariff impact currently estimated at ~$25 million due to pricing/timing, but Q4 expected to carry the largest net tariff rate impact (~full 20% burden) and ~200 bps gross margin headwind in Q4.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Quarterly Revenue
Q3 revenue of $1.96 billion, up 7% year-over-year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Deckers raised its fiscal 2026 guidance to revenue of $5.40–5.425 billion, with HOKA now expected to grow in the mid‑teens and UGG in the mid‑single digits; gross margin is projected at ~57% (up ~100 bps from prior guidance), SG&A ~34.5% of revenue, operating margin ~22.5% (up ~100 bps), an effective tax rate of ~23% and diluted EPS of $6.80–6.85 (a 7–8% increase vs. prior year). For Q4 management assumes HOKA will grow 13–14% and UGG will be roughly flat, with Q4 gross margin facing an approximate 200‑bp headwind as the full 20% tariff burden is expected to hit the quarter; for the year Deckers estimates an unmitigated tariff impact of ~$110 million and a net tariff impact of roughly $25 million. The company remains on track to repurchase >$1 billion of shares in FY26 (Q3 repurchases ~$349 million at an average $92.36; YTD ~8 million shares, >5% of beginning outstanding) — expected to contribute >$0.20 to EPS — and finished Q3 with ~$2.1 billion cash and ~$633 million inventory (up 10% YoY).Deckers Outdoor Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
90
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
88
Very Positive
Cash Flow
80
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Mar 2025 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 5.37B | 4.99B | 4.29B | 3.63B | 3.15B | 2.55B |
| Gross Profit | 3.09B | 2.89B | 2.39B | 1.83B | 1.61B | 1.37B |
| EBITDA | 1.37B | 1.32B | 1.04B | 716.87M | 609.60M | 548.07M |
| Net Income | 1.04B | 966.09M | 759.56M | 516.82M | 451.95M | 382.57M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 4.10B | 3.63B | 3.14B | 2.56B | 2.33B | 2.17B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.09B | 1.89B | 1.50B | 981.79M | 843.53M | 1.09B |
| Total Debt | 342.88M | 276.98M | 266.88M | 246.49M | 222.07M | 223.04M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.49B | 1.12B | 1.03B | 790.47M | 793.42M | 723.48M |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.61B | 2.51B | 2.11B | 1.77B | 1.54B | 1.44B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 929.14M | 958.35M | 943.82M | 456.40M | 121.34M | 564.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.01B | 1.04B | 1.03B | 537.42M | 172.35M | 596.22M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -83.97M | -75.00M | -89.33M | -81.01M | -51.01M | -32.17M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.09B | -581.33M | -417.68M | -309.03M | -367.48M | -129.58M |
Deckers Outdoor Technical Analysis
Negative
94.97
Price Trends
107.92
Negative
101.44
Negative
103.25
Negative
Market Momentum
-3.83
Positive
31.84
Neutral
9.43
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DECK, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 94.97 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 102.36, below the 50-day MA of 107.92, and below the 200-day MA of 103.25, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -3.83 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 31.84 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 9.43 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for DECK.
Deckers Outdoor Risk Analysis
Deckers Outdoor disclosed 27 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Deckers Outdoor reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Deckers Outdoor Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
83 Outperform | $13.48B | 7.91 | 41.36% | ― | 12.38% | 18.43% | |
72 Outperform | $6.27B | 32.23 | 13.87% | ― | 18.86% | 88.29% | |
62 Neutral | $4.02B | -57.09 | -5.37% | ― | <0.01% | -77.31% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
61 Neutral | $1.28B | 11.34 | 26.62% | 2.28% | 3.61% | ― | |
56 Neutral | $2.38B | 66.08 | 5.21% | 1.97% | 6.26% | -66.51% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
DECK
Deckers Outdoor
100.09
-17.89
-15.16%
CROX
Crocs
83.02
-28.52
-25.57%
SHOO
Steven Madden
33.92
6.37
23.10%
WWW
Wolverine World Wide
16.32
1.93
13.44%
BIRK
Birkenstock Holding plc
35.83
-11.37
-24.09%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.