Steven Madden (SHOO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.59B
• Dividend Yield: 1.97%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.80M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 57.3
• Beta (1Y): 1.08
• Revenue Growth: 6.26%
• EPS Growth: -66.51%
• Country: US
• Employees: 3,500
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Apparel - Footwear & Accessories
• EPS (TTM): 0.48
• Shares Outstanding: 72,657,936
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,738,473
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,803,232
• PEG Ratio: -0.90
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.41
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.17
• P/FCF Ratio: 24.69
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.07
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.09
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.64
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 26.59
• 1Y Price Target: $44.14
• Price Target Upside: 23.92% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.1
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $2.79B

• Rating: 56 Neutral
• Price Target: $38.00 ▲(6.68% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/25/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/25/26

The score is held back primarily by sharp 2025 profit compression and a step-up in leverage, reinforced by bearish technical signals (price below key moving averages and negative MACD). Offsetting factors include still-positive cash generation and a 2026 revenue growth outlook driven by Kurt Geiger and branded momentum, though tariff-driven uncertainty and private-label declines limit confidence, and the high P/E keeps valuation support modest.

Positive Factors

Cash Generation

Consistent positive operating and free cash flow provides durable internal funding for working capital, dividends and debt repayment. Even with a modest FCF decline from peak, multi-year positive cash generation supports reinvestment and resilience through cyclical industry swings.

Acquisition-Driven Revenue

The Kurt Geiger acquisition and branded momentum structurally diversify revenue and add international exposure. Pro forma Kurt Geiger growth (~11% in 2025) and management's revenue guidance indicate the deal meaningfully alters scale and channel mix, improving growth durability versus pure organic reliance.

Direct-to-Consumer Strength & Margins

Strong DTC performance and improved consolidated gross margins point to sustainable structural benefits: higher AUR, full-price recovery and margin expansion potential from owned channels. Durable DTC strength reduces dependency on lower-margin wholesale and supports long-term brand economics.

Negative Factors

Profitability Compression

A sharp drop in net income combined with a near-doubling of reported total debt materially weakens earnings quality and financial flexibility. Sustained margin compression limits ability to fund growth or absorb shocks, and higher leverage raises refinancing and covenant risks over the medium term.

Tariff & Private-Label Headwinds

Policy-driven tariff uncertainty is a structural risk that increases product costs and complicates sourcing strategies. A multi-year decline in private-label revenue reduces diversification and exposes the company to secular channel shifts, making topline and margin recovery harder without strategic channel repositioning.

Inventory & Cost Pressure

Material inventory buildup ties up cash and raises markdown risk, especially amid channel weakness. Simultaneously rising SG&A and fulfillment costs (restored incentive pay, warehouse pressures) create persistent margin pressure, limiting free cash flow upside until inventory and operating efficiency normalize.

Steven Madden Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Steven Madden, Ltd. designs, sources, markets, and sells fashion-forward branded and private label footwear, accessories, and apparel for women, men, and children in the United States and internationally. Its Wholesale Footwear segment provides footwear under the Steve Madden, Steven by Steve Madden, Madden Girl, BB Dakota, Dolce Vita, DV Dolce Vita, Betsey Johnson, GREATS, Blondo, Anne Klein, Mad Love, Superga, Madden NYC, and COOL Planet brands, as well as private label footwear. The company's Wholesale Accessories/Apparel segment offers handbags, apparel, small leather goods, belts, soft accessories, fashion scarves, wraps, gifting, and other accessories under the Steve Madden, BB Dakota, Anne Klein, Betsey Johnson, Cejon, Madden NYC, and Dolce Vita brands, as well as private label handbag and accessories to department stores, mass merchants, off-price retailers, online retailers, specialty stores, and independent stores. Its Direct-to-Consumer segment operates Steve Madden and Superga full-price retail stores, Steve Madden outlet stores, and Steve Madden shop-in-shops, as well as digital e-commerce websites, including SteveMadden.com, DolceVita.com, betseyjohnson.com, Blondo.com, GREATS.com, and Superga-USA.com. The company's Licensing segment licenses its Steve Madden, Madden Girl, and Betsey Johnson trademarks. Its First Cost segment operates as a buying agent for footwear products under private labels for national chains, specialty retailers, and value-priced retailers. As of December 31, 2021, it owned and operated 214 brick-and-mortar retail stores that included 147 Steve Madden full-price stores, 66 Steve Madden outlet stores, and 1 Superga store, as well as 6 e-commerce websites. Steven Madden, Ltd. was incorporated in 1990 and is headquartered in Long Island City, New York.

How the Company Makes Money

The company generates revenue primarily through the sale of its footwear and accessories, which are distributed through a multi-channel approach. Key revenue streams include wholesale distribution to department stores, specialty stores, and mass retailers, as well as direct-to-consumer sales through its own branded retail stores and e-commerce platforms. Steven Madden also benefits from strategic partnerships with other brands and retailers, which can enhance its market reach and product visibility. Seasonal product releases, collaborations, and marketing initiatives play a significant role in driving sales, while the company's ability to adapt to changing fashion trends helps sustain consumer demand.

Steven Madden Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Cash flow remains solid (2025 operating cash flow $162.2M; free cash flow $119.5M), and the balance sheet is generally sound, but 2025 profitability deteriorated sharply (net income down to $44.7M from $169.4M in 2024) alongside a notable increase in total debt ($293.0M vs. $153.0M).

Income Statement

Revenue has grown over time (up ~7.3% in 2025 vs. 2024), but profitability has weakened sharply: net income fell from $169.4M (2024) to $44.7M (2025) and operating profit dropped meaningfully as well. Earlier years showed solid margins and profits (2021–2024), while 2020 was loss-making—highlighting some cyclicality; the key current issue is the steep 2025 margin/profit compression despite higher sales.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is generally solid with equity of $866.4M on $1.91B assets (2025), but leverage increased: total debt rose to $293.0M in 2025 from $153.0M in 2024. Prior years showed low debt-to-equity (~0.13–0.18 in 2020–2024) and strong returns on equity (around ~20–26% in 2021–2024), but the 2025 earnings decline combined with higher debt reduces financial flexibility versus the recent history.

Cash Flow

Cash generation remains a relative strength: operating cash flow was $162.2M and free cash flow was $119.5M in 2025, both positive. That said, free cash flow declined about 10.2% in 2025 and has trended down from the 2022 peak ($249.5M), indicating cooling cash momentum; in 2023–2024, free cash flow tracked reasonably well relative to earnings and remained supportive.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.52B	2.28B	1.98B	2.12B	1.87B
Gross Profit	1.04B	936.93M	832.41M	873.84M	767.50M
EBITDA	123.46M	258.01M	235.24M	308.03M	262.86M
Net Income	44.66M	169.39M	171.55M	216.06M	190.68M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.91B	1.41B	1.35B	1.26B	1.36B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	112.42M	203.41M	219.81M	289.80M	263.54M
Total Debt	292.99M	152.99M	138.88M	108.63M	110.83M
Total Liabilities	1.01B	535.77M	499.91M	414.13M	535.00M
Stockholders Equity	866.39M	847.72M	829.60M	831.55M	812.10M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	119.54M	172.19M	209.77M	249.53M	152.85M
Operating Cash Flow	162.20M	198.10M	229.24M	267.88M	159.46M
Investing Cash Flow	-400.92M	-39.49M	-99.89M	5.52M	-3.21M
Financing Cash Flow	157.15M	-167.91M	-200.94M	-215.83M	-184.65M

Steven Madden Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 35.62
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SHOO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 35.62 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 38.20, below the 50-day MA of 41.71, and above the 200-day MA of 33.37, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.59 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.48 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 28.98 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SHOO.

Steven Madden Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
RCKY	76 Outperform	$339.61M	15.27	8.67%	2.08%	4.13%	53.56%
WEYS	70 Outperform	$303.07M	12.34	9.57%	9.66%	-3.64%	-16.12%
CROX	62 Neutral	$4.36B	-69.05	-5.19%	―	<0.01%	-77.31%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
WWW	61 Neutral	$1.46B	15.51	25.72%	2.28%	3.61%	―
SHOO	56 Neutral	$2.59B	57.30	5.21%	1.97%	6.26%	-66.51%
CAL	49 Neutral	$385.73M	19.21	3.33%	2.11%	-2.83%	-86.19%

Steven Madden Corporate Events

Steve Madden Posts Strong Sales, Adds New Quarterly Dividend

On February 25, 2026, Steve Madden reported fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results showing strong top-line growth but weaker profitability, alongside a new quarterly dividend. Fourth-quarter revenue rose 29.4% year-on-year to $753.7 million and full-year revenue increased 11.0% to $2.53 billion, driven in part by the Kurt Geiger acquisition, yet operating margins and net income declined as higher operating expenses, incentive compensation normalization and tariffs weighed on earnings.

Fourth-quarter net income fell to $23.2 million from $34.8 million a year earlier, while full-year net income dropped to $44.7 million from $169.4 million, though adjusted metrics also showed margin compression. The board declared a $0.21 per-share dividend payable March 20, 2026, and management projected 2026 revenue growth of 9% to 11% but withheld earnings guidance due to U.S. tariff uncertainty, underscoring both the growth momentum in its core Steve Madden brand and Kurt Geiger and the pressure on private-label operations and profitability.

At year-end 2025, the company operated 399 brick-and-mortar stores, seven e-commerce sites and 133 international concessions, with net debt of $121.7 million and no open-market share repurchases during the year. Channel results highlighted modest organic growth and margin impact from tariffs in wholesale and direct-to-consumer segments, as well as a significant reported revenue lift from the integration of Kurt Geiger’s wholesale and concessions businesses, signaling a strategic shift toward branded growth despite near-term cost headwinds.

The most recent analyst rating on (SHOO) stock is a Buy with a $50.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Steven Madden stock, see the SHOO Stock Forecast page.

Steven Madden Signs New Three-Year President Employment Agreement

On January 6, 2026, Steven Madden, Ltd. entered into a new three-year employment agreement with President Amelia Newton Varela, effective January 1, 2026 through December 31, 2028, replacing her prior contract that expired on December 31, 2025. The agreement sets escalating annual base salaries of $825,000 for 2026, $850,000 for 2027, and $875,000 for 2028, a monthly automobile allowance, a grant of restricted stock vesting over four years starting in January 2027, and eligibility for an annual performance-based cash bonus tied to EBIT, with payouts ranging from 30% to 80% of salary depending on performance. The contract also details severance protections, including salary continuation if terminated without cause and enhanced cash benefits in connection with a qualifying change of control, underscoring the company’s intent to retain key leadership and align executive incentives with shareholder and earnings performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (SHOO) stock is a Buy with a $50.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Steven Madden stock, see the SHOO Stock Forecast page.