Steven Madden (SHOO)
NASDAQ:SHOO
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Steven Madden
(NASDAQ:SHOO)
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Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
$33.00
▼(-0.33% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/25/26
The score is held back primarily by sharp 2025 profit compression and a step-up in leverage, reinforced by bearish technical signals (price below key moving averages and negative MACD). Offsetting factors include still-positive cash generation and a 2026 revenue growth outlook driven by Kurt Geiger and branded momentum, though tariff-driven uncertainty and private-label declines limit confidence, and the high P/E keeps valuation support modest.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Consistent positive operating and free cash flow provide durable internal funding to support working capital, dividend payments, and integration of acquisitions. Even with some FCF moderation from 2022 peaks, sustained cash generation preserves strategic optionality over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Sharp profit compression
A large decline in net income signals weaker core profitability and compresses margins, reducing the firm's ability to self-fund investments and respond to shocks. Sustained lower earnings amplify sensitivity to cost inflation and external shocks over the medium term and limit capital allocation flexibility.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
Consistent positive operating and free cash flow provide durable internal funding to support working capital, dividend payments, and integration of acquisitions. Even with some FCF moderation from 2022 peaks, sustained cash generation preserves strategic optionality over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Steven Madden (SHOO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.41B
Dividend Yield1.97%
Average Volume (3M)1.48M
Price to Earnings (P/E)66.1
Beta (1Y)1.09
Revenue Growth6.26%
EPS Growth-66.51%
CountryUS
Employees3,500
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryApparel - Footwear & Accessories
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.48
Shares Outstanding72,911,810
10 Day Avg. Volume1,274,380
30 Day Avg. Volume1,477,017
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.90
Price to Book (P/B)3.41
Price to Sales (P/S)1.17
P/FCF Ratio24.69
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.15
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.10
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.66
Enterprise Value/Ebitda26.78
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$43.86Price Target Upside32.47% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)2.09
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.79B
Steven Madden Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Steven Madden, Ltd. designs, sources, markets, and sells fashion-forward branded and private label footwear, accessories, and apparel for women, men, and children in the United States and internationally. Its Wholesale Footwear segment provides fo...
How the Company Makes Money
Steven Madden makes money primarily by selling footwear and accessories through two main channels: (1) wholesale and (2) direct-to-consumer. In the wholesale business, the company sells products to third-party retailers (such as department stores,...
Steven Madden Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 25, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mixed picture: clear topline momentum driven by the Kurt Geiger acquisition, strong DTC and branded assortment performance (notably Steve Madden and Dolce Vita), and improved gross margin. However, substantial headwinds from new tariffs materially pressured private label revenue, compressed profitability (net income down ~37%), raised SG&A and fulfillment costs, and created policy-driven uncertainty that prevented earnings guidance. The company provided revenue guidance for 2026 (+9% to +11%) but withheld EPS guidance due to tariff volatility.Positive Updates
Q4 Consolidated Revenue Growth
Consolidated Q4 revenue of $753.7M, up 29.4% year-over-year; excluding the Kurt Geiger acquisition, consolidated revenue decreased 1.4%.
Negative Updates
Tariff-Driven Disruption and Uncertainty
New U.S. tariffs materially disrupted 2025 results and created significant policy uncertainty; management declined to provide earnings guidance due to tariff volatility even while providing revenue guidance.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Q4 Consolidated Revenue Growth
Consolidated Q4 revenue of $753.7M, up 29.4% year-over-year; excluding the Kurt Geiger acquisition, consolidated revenue decreased 1.4%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management gave revenue guidance for fiscal 2026 of +9% to +11% (with Q1 revenue of +15% to +17%) but declined to provide earnings/EPS guidance due to tariff uncertainty; excluding Kurt Geiger, consolidated revenue is expected to be up low-single-digits for the year (core branded business up low singles, Steve Madden mid- to high-single-digit growth), Dolce Vita high-single-digit growth, and Kurt Geiger contributing roughly +50% on a reported basis (and ~11% pro forma growth in 2025 with similar growth expected in 2026). They warned private label—which fell 15% in 2025—will be a headwind, forecast to decline nearly 20% in 2026 (about a ~30% decline in Q1), while DTC excluding Kurt Geiger is expected to grow roughly 7–8% (midpoint). Management also flagged higher SG&A (including roughly $0.14–$0.15 per share of incremental cost from restored incentive pay/salaries), ongoing warehouse/fulfillment pressures, continued marketing investment, and a $0.21 quarterly dividend payable 03/20/2026.Steven Madden Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 2.52B | 2.28B | 1.98B | 2.12B | 1.87B |
| Gross Profit | 1.04B | 936.93M | 832.41M | 873.84M | 767.50M |
| EBITDA | 123.46M | 258.01M | 235.24M | 308.03M | 262.86M |
| Net Income | 44.66M | 169.39M | 171.55M | 216.06M | 190.68M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.91B | 1.41B | 1.35B | 1.26B | 1.36B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 112.42M | 203.41M | 219.81M | 289.80M | 263.54M |
| Total Debt | 486.14M | 152.99M | 138.88M | 108.63M | 110.83M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.01B | 535.77M | 499.91M | 414.13M | 535.00M |
| Stockholders Equity | 866.39M | 847.72M | 829.60M | 831.55M | 812.10M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 119.54M | 172.19M | 209.77M | 249.53M | 152.85M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 162.20M | 198.10M | 229.24M | 267.88M | 159.46M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -400.92M | -39.49M | -99.89M | 5.52M | -3.21M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 157.15M | -167.91M | -200.94M | -215.83M | -184.65M |
Steven Madden Technical Analysis
Negative
33.11
Price Trends
37.71
Negative
39.44
Negative
33.99
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.20
Negative
42.39
Neutral
70.01
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SHOO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 33.11 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 33.56, below the 50-day MA of 37.71, and below the 200-day MA of 33.99, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.20 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 42.39 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 70.01 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SHOO.
Steven Madden Risk Analysis
Steven Madden disclosed 29 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Steven Madden reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Steven Madden Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $302.53M | 12.56 | 9.35% | 9.66% | -3.64% | -16.12% | |
69 Neutral | $285.71M | 9.84 | 9.15% | 2.08% | 4.13% | 53.56% | |
62 Neutral | $4.00B | -57.09 | -5.37% | ― | <0.01% | -77.31% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
61 Neutral | $1.28B | 11.34 | 26.62% | 2.28% | 3.61% | ― | |
56 Neutral | $2.41B | 66.08 | 5.21% | 1.97% | 6.26% | -66.51% | |
54 Neutral | $353.87M | -56.33 | -1.16% | 2.11% | -2.83% | -86.19% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
SHOO
Steven Madden
33.11
7.14
27.51%
CROX
Crocs
79.54
-26.45
-24.96%
RCKY
Rocky Brands
37.91
20.69
120.11%
WEYS
Weyco Group
31.74
4.14
15.00%
WWW
Wolverine World Wide
15.78
2.33
17.31%
CAL
Caleres
10.91
-6.02
-35.57%
Steven Madden Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Steve Madden Posts Strong Sales, Adds New Quarterly Dividend
Negative
Feb 25, 2026
On February 25, 2026, Steve Madden reported fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results showing strong top-line growth but weaker profitability, alongside a new quarterly dividend. Fourth-quarter revenue rose 29.4% year-on-year to $753.7 million and...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Steven Madden Signs New Three-Year President Employment Agreement
Positive
Jan 9, 2026
On January 6, 2026, Steven Madden, Ltd. entered into a new three-year employment agreement with President Amelia Newton Varela, effective January 1, 2026 through December 31, 2028, replacing her prior contract that expired on December 31, 2025. Th...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.