Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK) AI Stock Analysis

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Birkenstock Holding plc

(NYSE:BIRK)

Rating:78Outperform

Price Target:

$57.00

▲(13.39% Upside)

Birkenstock's strong financial performance and impressive earnings call results drive the stock's overall score. The company shows robust revenue growth and operational efficiency. However, technical indicators suggest caution, and the high P/E ratio indicates potential overvaluation. Potential tariff and currency challenges slightly temper the outlook.

Positive Factors

Market Opportunities

The APAC region presents a significant opportunity for BIRK, with potential for sales penetration to double and drive margin expansion.

Sales and Margin Growth

Analyst remains optimistic about BIRK's potential for outsized sales and margin growth.

Negative Factors

Currency Impact

Shares are down 11% due primarily to the Euro's appreciation against the USD.

Foreign Exchange Headwinds

Adjusted EBITDA margins are being reduced due to foreign exchange headwinds, with a significant impact on the company's earnings.

Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$9.34B

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)2.04M

Price to Earnings (P/E)34.6

Beta (1Y)1.05

Revenue Growth18.55%

EPS Growth147.70%

CountryUS

Employees6,200

SectorConsumer Cyclical

Sector Strength60

IndustryApparel - Footwear & Accessories

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.64

Shares Outstanding187,833,400

10 Day Avg. Volume1,867,924

30 Day Avg. Volume2,039,102

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)0.00

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio0.00

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.06

Enterprise Value/Revenue5.04

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit8.54

Enterprise Value/Ebitda16.97

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$69.89

Price Target Upside39.03% Upside

Rating ConsensusStrong Buy

Number of Analyst Covering16

Birkenstock Holding plc Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionBirkenstock Holding plc manufactures and sells footwear products. It also offers sandals, shoes, closed-toe silhouettes, skincare products, and accessories. The company sells its products through e-commerce sites and a network of owned retail stores, as well as business-to-business channels. It operates in the United States, Brazil, Canada, Mexico, Europe, APMA, and internationally. Birkenstock Holding plc was founded in 1774 and is based in London, the United Kingdom. Birkenstock Holding plc is a subsidiary of BK LC Lux MidCo S.à r.l.

How the Company Makes MoneyBirkenstock Holding plc generates revenue primarily through the sale of its footwear products. The company's key revenue streams include direct-to-consumer sales through its branded retail stores and e-commerce platforms, as well as wholesale distribution channels that supply products to a wide network of third-party retailers globally. Birkenstock's earnings are bolstered by the strong brand loyalty it enjoys, driven by its reputation for high-quality, durable, and comfortable footwear. Additionally, the company may engage in strategic partnerships and collaborations to expand its market reach and enhance brand visibility, further contributing to its revenue.

Birkenstock Holding plc Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 15, 2025

(Q2-2025)

% Change Since: -7.74%|

Next Earnings Date:Aug 14, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

Birkenstock's second quarter results indicate strong revenue growth across regions and segments, successful retail expansion, and improvements in gross margin and profits. However, the company is preparing to manage potential challenges from tariffs and currency fluctuations, and there is an increase in general administration expenses. Overall, the positive aspects significantly outweigh the negative ones.

Q2-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Record Revenue Achievement

Birkenstock delivered a record €574 million in revenues for Q2 2025, which is a 19% increase year-over-year on a reported basis and 18% in constant currency, surpassing their 15-17% target for the year.

Strong Performance Across Segments

The Americas region grew revenue by 23% in reported currency and 20% in constant currency, driven by both B2B and DTC channels. The APAC region was the fastest-growing segment with 30% growth, and China more than doubled its revenue year-over-year.

Gross Margin and Profit Growth

Gross margin increased by 140 basis points to 57.7%, and adjusted EBITDA grew 23% year-over-year to €200 million. Adjusted net profit increased 33% year-over-year.

Closed-Toe Silhouettes Growth

Revenue from closed-toe silhouettes grew at twice the rate of the overall group and increased its share of business by 400 basis points.

Retail Expansion Success

Birkenstock expanded its retail presence to 77 owned stores, adding six new doors in Q2, with plans to reach 100 owned stores by the end of the fiscal year.

Negative Updates

Tariff and FX Headwinds

The company faces potential headwinds from tariffs and recent depreciation in the dollar, which could impact reported growth and margins in the second half of the year.

Higher G&A Expenses

General administration expenses increased by 150 basis points year-over-year due to reclassification and higher IT expenses related to an ERP conversion.

Company Guidance

During Birkenstock's Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company reported a record €574 million in revenues, marking a 19% increase year-over-year on a reported basis. Revenue growth was driven by an 18% increase in constant currency, surpassing the high end of their 15% to 17% annual growth target. The growth was balanced between B2B and DTC channels, with B2B increasing by 18% and DTC by 17%. The company's gross margin improved to 57.7%, up 140 basis points year-over-year, while adjusted EBITDA reached €200 million, up 23% with a margin of 34.8%. The Americas region showed a strong 23% revenue growth in reported currency, while EMEA saw a 12% increase. The APAC region was the fastest-growing segment with a 30% increase in revenue. Birkenstock also highlighted strong demand for closed-toe silhouettes, which grew at twice the rate of the overall group, contributing to a 400 basis point increase in their share of business. The company revised its adjusted EBITDA margin guidance upwards to 31.3% to 31.8%, reflecting a 50 basis point increase over previous expectations, and highlighted their strategic efforts to mitigate impacts from tariffs and exchange rate fluctuations.

Birkenstock Holding plc Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Birkenstock demonstrates strong financial health with notable revenue growth, robust profitability margins, and a stable balance sheet. Although cash flow generation slightly declined, the company's operational efficiency remains commendable. However, attention to debt management is crucial for maintaining long-term stability.

Income Statement

Very Positive

Birkenstock Holding plc demonstrated strong revenue growth with a TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue increase of 8.42% compared to the previous year. The gross profit margin remains robust at 59%, and net profit margin improved to 12.9%, reflecting efficient cost management and increasing profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins are solid at 25.2% and 29.7%, respectively, indicating healthy operational performance.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The balance sheet shows a stable financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.5, suggesting moderate leverage. The equity ratio is healthy at 55.6%, indicating strong asset coverage by equity. Return on equity has improved to 9%, reflecting enhanced profitability. However, a high total debt of $1.39 billion may pose potential risks if not managed carefully.

Cash Flow

Positive

Cash flow analysis reveals a positive trend with a free cash flow growth rate of -10.42%, indicating a slight decline in cash generation. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is robust at 1.56, showing strong cash flow generation relative to income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.26, suggesting efficient conversion of income into free cash flow.

Breakdown	Sep 2024	Sep 2023	Sep 2022	Sep 2021	Sep 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.80B	1.49B	1.24B	962.13M	728.55M
Gross Profit	1.06B	925.79M	749.80M	545.65M	260.28M
EBITDA	503.67M	360.35M	423.14M	230.25M	3.35M
Net Income	191.60M	75.02M	187.11M	116.44M	-106.19M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	4.88B	4.83B	4.79B	4.27B	803.56M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	376.46M	354.06M	307.08M	235.34M	96.18M
Total Debt	1.35B	1.98B	2.04B	1.89B	220.43M
Total Liabilities	2.26B	2.43B	2.43B	2.20B	395.39M
Stockholders Equity	2.63B	2.40B	2.36B	2.06B	398.16M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	354.80M	255.79M	161.54M	159.65M	171.26M
Operating Cash Flow	428.70M	358.73M	234.14M	181.41M	193.60M
Investing Cash Flow	-58.80M	-100.73M	-71.65M	-18.20M	-3.50M
Financing Cash Flow	-355.05M	-199.28M	-105.32M	-84.96M	-130.25M

Birkenstock Holding plc Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price50.27

Price Trends

50DMA

51.36

Negative

100DMA

50.14

Positive

200DMA

51.48

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

0.05

Negative

RSI

49.57

Neutral

STOCH

29.33

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BIRK, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 50.27 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 49.64, below the 50-day MA of 51.36, and below the 200-day MA of 51.48, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.05 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.57 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 29.33 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BIRK.

Birkenstock Holding plc Risk Analysis

Birkenstock Holding plc disclosed 81 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Birkenstock Holding plc reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Birkenstock Holding plc Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (63)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
DECK	82 Outperform	$15.33B	15.87	43.58%	―	15.43%	24.20%
CROX	81 Outperform	$0.00	6.25	53.70%	―	2.09%	26.18%
BIRK	78 Outperform	$9.34B	34.57	9.35%	―	18.55%	147.70%
SKX	72 Outperform	$9.42B	15.16	14.67%	―	10.66%	9.44%
SHOO	71 Outperform	$1.71B	18.50	11.09%	3.57%	7.67%	-48.10%
WWW	68 Neutral	$1.80B	24.99	25.29%	1.70%	-13.05%	―
Sector *	63 Neutral	€17.75B	13.23	7.79%	3.58%	-0.28%	-98.18%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

BIRK

Birkenstock Holding plc

49.71

-5.54

-10.03%

CROX

Crocs

102.00

-24.18

-19.16%

DECK

Deckers Outdoor

105.91

-34.64

-24.65%

SKX

Skechers USA

63.05

3.35

5.61%

SHOO

Steven Madden

25.10

-16.02

-38.96%

WWW

Wolverine World Wide

23.50

10.91

86.66%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 01, 2025