Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK) AI Stock Analysis

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Birkenstock Holding plc

(NYSE:BIRK)

Select Model

Outperform 78 (OpenAI - 4o)

Rating:78Outperform

Price Target:

$58.00

▲(26.11% Upside)

Birkenstock's strong financial performance and positive earnings call sentiment are the primary drivers of its stock score. The company's robust revenue growth, profitability improvements, and strategic expansions contribute significantly. However, the high valuation and neutral technical indicators slightly temper the overall score.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Consistent revenue growth indicates strong market demand and effective business strategies, enhancing long-term financial stability.

Profitability Improvement

Improved margins reflect efficient cost management and operational strength, supporting sustainable profit growth.

Market Expansion

Expanding retail presence enhances market reach and brand visibility, driving future revenue growth and customer engagement.

Negative Factors

FX Impact

Currency volatility can negatively impact revenue and profitability, posing a risk to financial performance if not managed effectively.

Tariff Challenges

Increased tariffs can pressure margins and competitiveness, potentially affecting long-term profitability and market positioning.

Capacity Constraints

Production constraints can limit growth potential and customer satisfaction, hindering the ability to capitalize on market demand.

Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$8.39B

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)1.93M

Price to Earnings (P/E)25.4

Beta (1Y)1.01

Revenue Growth18.66%

EPS Growth183.98%

CountryUS

Employees6,200

SectorConsumer Cyclical

Sector Strength84

IndustryApparel - Footwear & Accessories

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.72

Shares Outstanding183,906,050

10 Day Avg. Volume1,867,012

30 Day Avg. Volume1,926,779

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)N/A

P/FCF RatioN/A

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.25

Enterprise Value/Revenue5.16

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit8.71

Enterprise Value/Ebitda16.69

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$67.58

Price Target Upside46.94% Upside

Rating ConsensusStrong Buy

Number of Analyst Covering13

Birkenstock Holding plc Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionBirkenstock Holding plc manufactures and sells footwear products. It also offers sandals, shoes, closed-toe silhouettes, skincare products, and accessories. The company sells its products through e-commerce sites and a network of owned retail stores, as well as business-to-business channels. It operates in the United States, Brazil, Canada, Mexico, Europe, APMA, and internationally. Birkenstock Holding plc was founded in 1774 and is based in London, the United Kingdom. Birkenstock Holding plc is a subsidiary of BK LC Lux MidCo S.à r.l.

How the Company Makes MoneyBirkenstock Holding plc generates revenue primarily through the sale of its footwear products. The company's key revenue streams include direct-to-consumer sales through its branded retail stores and e-commerce platforms, as well as wholesale distribution channels that supply products to a wide network of third-party retailers globally. Birkenstock's earnings are bolstered by the strong brand loyalty it enjoys, driven by its reputation for high-quality, durable, and comfortable footwear. Additionally, the company may engage in strategic partnerships and collaborations to expand its market reach and enhance brand visibility, further contributing to its revenue.

Birkenstock Holding plc Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 14, 2025

(Q3-2025)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:Feb 26, 2026

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call reflects a strong performance in terms of revenue growth, profitability, and successful expansion in key regions. However, challenges such as FX impact, tariffs, and capacity constraints were noted. Despite these challenges, the overall sentiment is positive due to significant achievements and strong market demand.

Q3-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Record Revenue Growth

Birkenstock achieved a 16% revenue growth in constant currency for Q3 2025, with double-digit growth across all segments and channels.

Improved Profitability

Gross margin increased by 100 basis points to 60.5%, and EBITDA margin rose by 140 basis points to 34.4%, marking the best third-quarter margin for the company.

Strong B2B Performance

B2B revenue outpaced DTC, with B2B revenue up 18% in constant currency, benefiting from the shift to in-person shopping.

Significant Growth in APAC

APAC region saw a 24% increase in constant currency, and the business in China accounted for 20% of APAC revenue.

Successful Store Expansions

Birkenstock added 13 new doors in own retail, aiming to reach 100 stores by the end of the fiscal year.

Negative Updates

FX Impact

The dollar depreciated by about 5% against the euro, causing a 330 basis points drag on revenue growth and affecting margins.

Tariff Challenges

The EU tariff increased to 15%, which, although manageable, posed challenges to revenue and margin.

Capacity Constraints

Limited production capacity in EMEA led to missed opportunities to meet demand fully.

Company Guidance

During the third quarter of fiscal year 2025, Birkenstock reported a robust performance, achieving a 16% revenue growth in constant currency and demonstrating significant improvements in profitability. The company recorded a gross margin increase of 100 basis points to 60.5% and an EBITDA margin rise of 140 basis points to 34.4%, marking their best third-quarter margin ever. Retail revenue at their top 10 wholesale partners in a flat U.S. market surged by 25%, while EMEA's retail revenue at top partners climbed 20%. Within the B2B channel, over 90% of growth was from existing doors. Birkenstock accelerated their own retail expansion, adding 13 new stores, aiming for a total of 100 by year-end. Closed-toe product revenue increased by 400 basis points year-over-year, with strong demand across all product categories. The APAC region's revenue grew by 24% in constant currency, with a forecasted acceleration for the fourth quarter. Despite facing currency volatility, Birkenstock sustained its pricing strategy, managed tariff impacts effectively, and maintained a strong order book, positioning itself well to meet its full-year growth and profitability objectives.

Birkenstock Holding plc Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Birkenstock Holding plc demonstrates strong financial performance with consistent revenue and profit growth, efficient cost management, and a stable balance sheet. The recent decline in free cash flow growth warrants attention, but overall financial health remains robust, supported by solid profitability and moderate leverage.

Income Statement

Very Positive

Birkenstock Holding plc has shown strong revenue growth with a TTM increase of 3.59% and consistent improvement in profitability margins. The gross profit margin is robust at 58.99%, and the net profit margin has improved to 12.90% in the TTM. EBIT and EBITDA margins have also increased, indicating efficient cost management and operational strength. The company has demonstrated a positive growth trajectory, enhancing its financial stability.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The balance sheet reflects a healthy financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.50, indicating moderate leverage. Return on equity has improved to 9.34%, showcasing effective utilization of equity capital. The equity ratio stands at 53.63%, suggesting a solid equity base relative to total assets. Overall, the balance sheet indicates stability, though there is room for further improvement in leverage management.

Cash Flow

Positive

Cash flow analysis shows a slight decline in free cash flow growth at -7.71% in the TTM, which could be a concern. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio remains strong at 0.96, and the free cash flow to net income ratio is healthy at 0.81. Despite the recent dip in free cash flow growth, the company maintains a solid cash flow position, supporting its operational needs.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.03B	1.80B	1.49B	1.24B	962.13M	728.55M
Gross Profit	1.20B	1.06B	925.79M	749.80M	545.65M	260.28M
EBITDA	627.01M	503.67M	360.35M	423.14M	230.25M	3.35M
Net Income	306.93M	191.60M	75.02M	187.11M	116.44M	-106.19M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	4.91B	4.88B	4.83B	4.79B	4.27B	803.56M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	261.83M	376.46M	354.06M	307.08M	235.34M	96.18M
Total Debt	1.37B	1.35B	1.98B	2.04B	1.89B	220.43M
Total Liabilities	2.27B	2.26B	2.43B	2.43B	2.20B	395.39M
Stockholders Equity	2.63B	2.63B	2.40B	2.36B	2.06B	398.16M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	295.14M	354.80M	255.79M	161.54M	159.65M	171.26M
Operating Cash Flow	373.32M	428.70M	358.73M	234.14M	180.93M	193.60M
Investing Cash Flow	-72.48M	-58.80M	-100.73M	-71.65M	-18.15M	-3.50M
Financing Cash Flow	-439.23M	-355.05M	-199.28M	-105.32M	-84.74M	-130.25M

Birkenstock Holding plc Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price45.99

Price Trends

50DMA

49.48

Negative

100DMA

51.07

Negative

200DMA

51.70

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-1.24

Positive

RSI

35.78

Neutral

STOCH

16.70

Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BIRK, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 45.99 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 49.32, below the 50-day MA of 49.48, and below the 200-day MA of 51.70, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.24 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.78 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 16.70 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BIRK.

Birkenstock Holding plc Risk Analysis

Birkenstock Holding plc disclosed 81 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Birkenstock Holding plc reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Birkenstock Holding plc Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
DECK	79 Outperform	17.61B	17.73	40.11%	―	15.43%	24.20%
BIRK	78 Outperform	$8.39B	25.41	11.36%	―	18.66%	183.98%
SKX	77 Outperform	9.49B	14.44	13.94%	―	12.11%	17.08%
SHOO	74 Outperform	2.36B	25.56	11.02%	2.57%	7.80%	-48.10%
WWW	69 Neutral	2.49B	29.62	17.84%	1.32%	-2.83%	0.00%
CROX	68 Neutral	4.40B	21.58	16.64%	―	2.04%	-71.52%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

BIRK

Birkenstock Holding plc

45.99

-1.87

-3.91%

CROX

Crocs

80.36

-57.56

-41.73%

DECK

Deckers Outdoor

115.43

-36.68

-24.11%

SKX

Skechers USA

63.13

1.57

2.55%

SHOO

Steven Madden

32.70

-13.90

-29.83%

WWW

Wolverine World Wide

30.40

15.56

104.85%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Sep 03, 2025