Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK) AI Stock Analysis

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Birkenstock Holding plc

(NYSE:BIRK)

Rating:77Outperform

Price Target:

$59.00

▲(20.33%Upside)

Birkenstock's overall stock score reflects strong financial performance and positive earnings call insights, which are the most significant factors. Technical analysis and valuation present some concerns, with mixed indicators and a potentially high valuation relative to the market. The absence of corporate events in the evaluation maintains focus on core financial and performance metrics.

Positive Factors

Brand Strength

Birkenstock benefits from a combination of brand heritage, a loyal customer base, and expanded production capacity, supporting strong revenue growth.

Financial Performance

Birkenstock's 2Q25 EPS, revenue, gross margin, and EBITDA margins beat consensus expectations, showing strong financial performance.

Sales Growth

The company is expected to achieve annual sales growth in the mid- to high teens over the next few years, driven by strong brand strength and sales momentum.

Negative Factors

Competitive Environment

An intense competitive environment with copycat products poses a risk to Birkenstock.

Foreign Exchange Impact

Reported revenue growth is being lowered to 12.9%, impacted by a foreign exchange translation headwind.

Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$9.21B

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)2.20M

Price to Earnings (P/E)34.1

Beta (1Y)1.02

Revenue Growth18.55%

EPS Growth147.70%

CountryUS

Employees6,200

SectorConsumer Cyclical

Sector Strength57

IndustryApparel - Footwear & Accessories

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.64

Shares Outstanding187,833,400

10 Day Avg. Volume2,019,792

30 Day Avg. Volume2,200,546

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio0.28

Price to Book (P/B)3.18

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio46.40

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$68.93

Price Target Upside40.59% Upside

Rating ConsensusStrong Buy

Number of Analyst Covering15

Birkenstock Holding plc Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionBirkenstock Holding plc manufactures and sells footwear products. It also offers sandals, shoes, closed-toe silhouettes, skincare products, and accessories. The company sells its products through e-commerce sites and a network of owned retail stores, as well as business-to-business channels. It operates in the United States, Brazil, Canada, Mexico, Europe, APMA, and internationally. Birkenstock Holding plc was founded in 1774 and is based in London, the United Kingdom. Birkenstock Holding plc is a subsidiary of BK LC Lux MidCo S.à r.l.

How the Company Makes MoneyBirkenstock Holding plc generates revenue primarily through the sale of its footwear products, which include sandals, shoes, and insoles. The company's key revenue streams are its retail operations, both online and through brick-and-mortar stores, as well as wholesale distribution to third-party retailers globally. Birkenstock's strong brand reputation and loyal customer base drive consistent demand for its products. Additionally, strategic partnerships and collaborations with fashion designers and other brands enhance its market presence and expand its consumer reach. The company's focus on sustainability and quality also allows it to command premium pricing, contributing to its overall earnings.

Birkenstock Holding plc Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 15, 2025

(Q2-2025)

% Change Since: -10.02%|

Next Earnings Date:Aug 28, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

Birkenstock's second quarter results indicate strong revenue growth across regions and segments, successful retail expansion, and improvements in gross margin and profits. However, the company is preparing to manage potential challenges from tariffs and currency fluctuations, and there is an increase in general administration expenses. Overall, the positive aspects significantly outweigh the negative ones.

Q2-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Record Revenue Achievement

Birkenstock delivered a record €574 million in revenues for Q2 2025, which is a 19% increase year-over-year on a reported basis and 18% in constant currency, surpassing their 15-17% target for the year.

Strong Performance Across Segments

The Americas region grew revenue by 23% in reported currency and 20% in constant currency, driven by both B2B and DTC channels. The APAC region was the fastest-growing segment with 30% growth, and China more than doubled its revenue year-over-year.

Gross Margin and Profit Growth

Gross margin increased by 140 basis points to 57.7%, and adjusted EBITDA grew 23% year-over-year to €200 million. Adjusted net profit increased 33% year-over-year.

Closed-Toe Silhouettes Growth

Revenue from closed-toe silhouettes grew at twice the rate of the overall group and increased its share of business by 400 basis points.

Retail Expansion Success

Birkenstock expanded its retail presence to 77 owned stores, adding six new doors in Q2, with plans to reach 100 owned stores by the end of the fiscal year.

Negative Updates

Tariff and FX Headwinds

The company faces potential headwinds from tariffs and recent depreciation in the dollar, which could impact reported growth and margins in the second half of the year.

Higher G&A Expenses

General administration expenses increased by 150 basis points year-over-year due to reclassification and higher IT expenses related to an ERP conversion.

Company Guidance

During Birkenstock's Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company reported a record €574 million in revenues, marking a 19% increase year-over-year on a reported basis. Revenue growth was driven by an 18% increase in constant currency, surpassing the high end of their 15% to 17% annual growth target. The growth was balanced between B2B and DTC channels, with B2B increasing by 18% and DTC by 17%. The company's gross margin improved to 57.7%, up 140 basis points year-over-year, while adjusted EBITDA reached €200 million, up 23% with a margin of 34.8%. The Americas region showed a strong 23% revenue growth in reported currency, while EMEA saw a 12% increase. The APAC region was the fastest-growing segment with a 30% increase in revenue. Birkenstock also highlighted strong demand for closed-toe silhouettes, which grew at twice the rate of the overall group, contributing to a 400 basis point increase in their share of business. The company revised its adjusted EBITDA margin guidance upwards to 31.3% to 31.8%, reflecting a 50 basis point increase over previous expectations, and highlighted their strategic efforts to mitigate impacts from tariffs and exchange rate fluctuations.

Birkenstock Holding plc Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Birkenstock Holding plc shows strong financial health across all verticals. With robust revenue and profitability growth, solid balance sheet metrics, and effective cash flow management, the company is well-positioned in the Apparel & Luxury industry. While the cash flow metrics indicate room for enhancement, overall financial stability and growth prospects remain positive.

Income Statement

Very Positive

Birkenstock Holding plc has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with the latest TTM revenue reaching approximately $1.87 billion, up from $1.49 billion in the previous year, indicating robust growth. The gross profit margin is healthy at around 57.6%, and the net profit margin has improved to 11.7%, highlighting improved profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are strong, reflecting operational efficiency. These positive trends showcase strong financial performance in the income statement.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The company maintains a solid balance sheet with an equity ratio of 54.9%, indicating a strong equity position relative to total assets. The debt-to-equity ratio has improved to 0.51, showcasing effective leverage management. Return on equity has increased to 8.0%, reflecting enhanced shareholder returns. Overall, the balance sheet indicates a stable financial position, with a cautious approach to leverage.

Cash Flow

Positive

Birkenstock's cash flow statement reveals a positive trajectory in free cash flow, growing to $373 million in the latest TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is robust, ensuring strong cash conversion. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is slightly lower, suggesting room for improvement in cash generation relative to net income. Overall, the company exhibits solid cash flow management.

Breakdown	TTM	Sep 2024	Sep 2023	Sep 2022	Sep 2021	Sep 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.87B	1.80B	1.49B	1.24B	962.13M	728.55M
Gross Profit	1.08B	1.06B	925.79M	749.80M	545.65M	260.28M
EBITDA	535.07M	503.67M	360.35M	423.14M	230.25M	3.35M
Net Income	218.88M	191.60M	75.02M	187.11M	116.44M	-106.19M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.01B	4.88B	4.83B	4.79B	4.27B	803.56M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	298.59M	376.46M	354.06M	307.08M	235.34M	96.18M
Total Debt	1.39B	1.35B	1.98B	2.04B	1.89B	220.43M
Total Liabilities	2.26B	2.26B	2.43B	2.43B	2.20B	395.39M
Stockholders Equity	2.75B	2.63B	2.40B	2.36B	2.06B	398.16M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	373.00M	354.80M	255.79M	161.54M	159.65M	171.26M
Operating Cash Flow	447.61M	428.70M	358.73M	234.14M	181.41M	193.60M
Investing Cash Flow	-66.48M	-58.80M	-100.73M	-71.65M	-18.20M	-3.50M
Financing Cash Flow	-254.72M	-355.05M	-199.28M	-105.32M	-84.96M	-130.25M

Birkenstock Holding plc Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price49.03

Price Trends

50DMA

52.73

Negative

100DMA

50.50

Negative

200DMA

51.38

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-1.19

Positive

RSI

34.87

Neutral

STOCH

13.97

Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BIRK, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 49.03 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 52.20, below the 50-day MA of 52.73, and below the 200-day MA of 51.38, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.19 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 34.87 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 13.97 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BIRK.

Birkenstock Holding plc Risk Analysis

Birkenstock Holding plc disclosed 81 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Birkenstock Holding plc reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Birkenstock Holding plc Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (62)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
DECK	79 Outperform	$15.57B	16.27	41.82%	―	16.22%	29.52%
BIRK	77 Outperform	$9.21B	34.10	9.35%	―	18.55%	147.70%
CROX	77 Outperform	$6.01B	6.57	53.70%	―	2.09%	26.18%
SHOO	74 Outperform	$1.83B	10.86	19.51%	3.50%	10.17%	-4.71%
SKX	72 Outperform	$9.44B	15.22	14.67%	―	10.66%	9.44%
WWW	68 Neutral	$1.55B	21.52	25.29%	2.21%	-13.05%	―
Sector *	62 Neutral	$16.65B	11.30	-7.38%	3.01%	1.59%	-23.30%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

BIRK

Birkenstock Holding plc

49.05

-7.45

-13.19%

CROX

Crocs

106.74

-41.16

-27.83%

DECK

Deckers Outdoor

106.26

-49.69

-31.86%

SKX

Skechers USA

63.25

-4.07

-6.05%

SHOO

Steven Madden

26.04

-14.90

-36.39%

WWW

Wolverine World Wide

19.84

7.16

56.47%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jun 18, 2025