Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $7.69B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.67M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 17.6
• Beta (1Y): 1.04
• Revenue Growth: 18.86%
• EPS Growth: 88.29%
• Country: US
• Employees: 6,200
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Apparel - Footwear & Accessories
• EPS (TTM): 0.32
• Shares Outstanding: 183,906,050
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,514,146
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,666,145
• PEG Ratio: 0.25
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.64
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.43
• P/FCF Ratio: 24.94
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.98
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.51
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.02
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 11.07
• 1Y Price Target: $58.06
• Price Target Upside: 41.99% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 19
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.42
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $2.76B

• Rating: 72 Outperform
• Price Target: $44.00 ▲(7.61% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/14/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/14/26

The score is driven primarily by strong underlying financial performance (high margins and improved balance-sheet positioning) and a constructive earnings outlook with reaffirmed multi-year targets and a €200m buyback plan. Offsetting factors are mixed recent cash-flow trends and notable near-term FX/tariff pressure, while technicals remain weaker on the intermediate trend and valuation appears only moderate.

Positive Factors

High margins & profitability

Sustained high gross (~58% TTM) and net (~18% TTM) margins reflect strong pricing power, brand premium and efficient cost structure. These margins provide durable cash generation to fund capex, retail expansion and shareholder returns even if top-line growth moderates.

Improved leverage and balance sheet

Leverage has meaningfully improved versus earlier years, leaving a manageable debt profile and sizable equity cushion. This enhances financial flexibility to pursue capex, buybacks and capacity investments while still targeting mid-cycle net-leverage levels.

Multi-channel revenue momentum & retail expansion

Strong DTC and retail momentum, rapid store growth and rising membership indicate durable direct customer relationships and higher ASP opportunities. A growing owned-retail footprint and higher sell-through support long-term margin sustainability and customer equity across regions.

Negative Factors

Material FX and tariff headwinds

Large currency translation and incremental U.S. tariff pressures are compressing reported revenue and margins. These external, multi-quarter effects add volatility to reported results, reduce reported profitability and can constrain reinvestment or buybacks if persistent.

Working-capital and cash-flow pressure

Rising inventories, higher DSO and a period of operating cash outflow indicate working-capital strain that erodes near-term liquidity. Even with positive TTM FCF, weaker cash conversion and elevated inventory tie up capital, limiting flexibility for capex or aggressive buybacks.

Capacity constrained 'by design'

Deliberate production limits and vertical integration restrict the pace of unit volume expansion, forcing allocation choices across channels. That caps volume upside even amid strong demand, potentially slowing market-share gains and delaying scale benefits from higher throughput.

Birkenstock Holding plc Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Birkenstock Holding plc manufactures and sells footwear products. It also offers sandals, shoes, closed-toe silhouettes, skincare products, and accessories. The company sells its products through e-commerce sites and a network of owned retail stores, as well as business-to-business channels. It operates in the United States, Brazil, Canada, Mexico, Europe, APMA, and internationally. Birkenstock Holding plc was founded in 1774 and is based in London, the United Kingdom. Birkenstock Holding plc is a subsidiary of BK LC Lux MidCo S.à r.l.

How the Company Makes Money

Birkenstock generates revenue primarily through the sale of its footwear products, which are distributed through various channels including retail stores, e-commerce platforms, and wholesale partnerships with third-party retailers. Key revenue streams include direct-to-consumer sales from their own branded stores and online platforms, as well as sales through licensed retailers worldwide. The company also benefits from seasonal collections and collaborations with fashion brands that enhance brand visibility and attract new customer segments. Additionally, the growing trend of comfort-oriented lifestyle products has contributed to increased demand for Birkenstock's offerings, solidifying its position in the market.

Birkenstock Holding plc Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong profitability and margins (TTM gross margin ~58%, net margin ~18%) and an improved leverage profile versus 2021–2023 support a high score. Offsets include slowing growth and mixed recent cash-flow momentum (TTM FCF down vs prior period; some working-capital/timing headwinds).

Income Statement

BIRK shows strong operating performance and improving profitability. Revenue has expanded meaningfully from 2021 to 2025, and TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) profitability is robust with a high gross margin (~58%) and solid net margin (~18%). Operating margins also look healthy in TTM, indicating good pricing power and cost control. The main drawback is that growth appears to be slowing versus earlier years (TTM growth rate is notably lower than the prior multi-year trajectory), suggesting tougher comps or a more mature growth phase.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks manageable and has improved versus earlier years: debt-to-equity has moved from higher levels in 2021–2023 to ~0.41 in FY2025 and ~0.49 in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). Equity remains sizable relative to the asset base, supporting financial flexibility. Return on equity has also improved (to ~11% in FY2025 and ~13% in TTM), reflecting better earnings power. The key watch item is that total debt remains material in absolute dollars and debt-to-equity ticked up in TTM versus FY2025, implying slightly higher balance-sheet risk than the most recent annual snapshot.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is generally positive with TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) free cash flow of ~$282M, but quality is mixed. Free cash flow conversion versus net income is decent (TTM free cash flow is ~73% of net income), yet operating cash flow is only around net income in TTM and was weaker in FY2025, pointing to some working-capital or timing headwinds. Additionally, TTM free cash flow declined versus the prior period (negative growth), which is a near-term concern even though longer-term cash generation has been solid.

Breakdown	TTM	Sep 2025	Sep 2024	Dec 2023	Sep 2022	Sep 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.14B	2.10B	1.80B	1.49B	1.24B	962.13M
Gross Profit	1.25B	1.24B	1.06B	925.79M	749.80M	545.65M
EBITDA	677.36M	659.09M	503.67M	360.35M	414.42M	230.25M
Net Income	378.76M	348.33M	191.60M	75.02M	187.11M	116.44M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	4.95B	4.94B	4.88B	4.83B	4.79B	4.27B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	229.23M	340.82M	368.36M	353.40M	307.08M	235.34M
Total Debt	1.35B	1.31B	1.35B	1.95B	2.05B	1.92B
Total Liabilities	2.18B	2.22B	2.26B	2.43B	2.43B	2.20B
Stockholders Equity	2.77B	2.72B	2.63B	2.40B	2.36B	2.06B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	281.52M	288.28M	354.80M	255.79M	161.54M	159.65M
Operating Cash Flow	386.66M	373.23M	428.70M	358.73M	234.14M	180.93M
Investing Cash Flow	-108.15M	-93.18M	-58.80M	-100.73M	-71.65M	-18.15M
Financing Cash Flow	-335.70M	-307.44M	-355.05M	-199.28M	-105.32M	-84.74M

Birkenstock Holding plc Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 40.89
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BIRK, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 40.89 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 39.08, below the 50-day MA of 41.16, and below the 200-day MA of 46.18, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.07 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 54.28 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 73.42 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BIRK.

Birkenstock Holding plc Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
DECK	83 Outperform	$16.88B	16.68	39.69%	―	12.38%	18.43%
BIRK	72 Outperform	$7.69B	17.64	13.95%	―	18.86%	88.29%
SHOO	64 Neutral	$2.85B	49.73	6.68%	1.97%	6.26%	-66.51%
CROX	62 Neutral	$4.93B	-76.71	-5.19%	―	<0.01%	-77.31%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
WWW	58 Neutral	$1.52B	17.65	25.57%	2.28%	3.61%	―

Birkenstock Holding plc Corporate Events

Birkenstock Reaffirms Strong 2026 Outlook and Expansion Plans

Birkenstock Holding plc, the parent of Birkenstock Group B.V. & Co. KG, operates as a global lifestyle and footwear brand built around its trademark contoured footbed and a heritage of German shoemaking since 1774. Its portfolio extends from sandals and shoes to sleep systems and natural cosmetics, positioning the company as a “super brand” that serves a broad demographic and taps demand for conscious, health-oriented living.

On February 12, 2026, Birkenstock reiterated its financial guidance for fiscal 2026, signaling confidence in its growth trajectory despite currency and tariff headwinds. The company continues to project constant-currency revenue growth of 13–15% to €2.30–2.35 billion, adjusted EBITDA of at least €700 million with margins around 30–30.5%, plans for €110–130 million in capital expenditures, a targeted net leverage ratio of 1.3–1.4x, and the opening of about 40 new own-retail stores worldwide, alongside a planned $200 million share repurchase program.

The most recent analyst rating on (BIRK) stock is a Buy with a $43.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Birkenstock Holding plc stock, see the BIRK Stock Forecast page.

Birkenstock Beats Growth Targets on Strong Holiday Quarter, Invests in New Production Capacity

On February 12, 2026, Birkenstock reported fiscal first-quarter 2026 results for the period ended December 31, 2025, with revenue rising 11% to €402 million on a reported basis and 18% in constant currency, outpacing its full-year growth target. Strong holiday demand across clogs, shearling styles and closed-toe footwear drove double-digit constant-currency gains in all regions, led by B2B channels and supported by nine new company-owned stores, bringing its global retail network to 106 locations.

Despite a 460-basis-point drop in gross margin to 55.7% due to adverse currency moves, higher U.S. tariffs and channel mix effects, net profit jumped 151% to €51 million and earnings per share rose to €0.27, while adjusted EBITDA grew 4% with margin compression tied mainly to FX and tariffs. The company continued to invest for growth, allocating about €38 million in first-quarter capital expenditures—including €18 million for a new production site in Wittichenau—while ending the quarter with €229 million in cash and net leverage of 1.7x, underscoring both strong demand and a strategy of expanding capacity to meet its long-term ambitions.

The most recent analyst rating on (BIRK) stock is a Buy with a $42.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Birkenstock Holding plc stock, see the BIRK Stock Forecast page.

Birkenstock Posts Stable Balance Sheet and Higher Inventories in Q1 FY2026 Update

Birkenstock Holding plc reported unaudited interim condensed consolidated financial information as of December 31, 2025, and for the three months ended December 31, 2025 and 2024, revealing total assets of €4.95 billion, broadly stable versus September 30, 2025. The balance sheet shows strong equity of about €2.77 billion alongside sizeable non-current liabilities, including more than €1.12 billion in loans and borrowings and a substantial tax receivable agreement liability, while inventories climbed and cash declined quarter-on-quarter, signaling ongoing investment in stock and a leveraged but capital-rich position going into 2026.

Current assets reached €1.25 billion, driven by higher inventories of €831.9 million, even as cash and cash equivalents fell to €229.2 million from €329.1 million, suggesting a shift of liquidity into working capital. For stakeholders, the unchanged share premium, rising retained earnings and only modest movements in debt and lease liabilities point to a relatively stable capital structure, albeit with material long-term obligations that investors will watch closely as the company executes its growth and inventory strategies.

The most recent analyst rating on (BIRK) stock is a Buy with a $43.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Birkenstock Holding plc stock, see the BIRK Stock Forecast page.

Birkenstock Hosts New York Capital Markets Day, Unveils Preliminary Q1 2026 Results

On January 28, 2026, Birkenstock Holding plc hosted a Capital Markets Day in New York City, where it shared an investor presentation that included preliminary financial results for its fiscal first quarter 2026, ended December 31, 2025, supplementing a press release issued on January 12, 2026. The event, which was webcast for investors, underscores Birkenstock’s efforts to deepen engagement with capital markets and provide greater transparency around its financial performance and strategic direction, positioning the company to reinforce investor confidence and clarify its growth narrative as a newly listed, brand-driven footwear group.

The most recent analyst rating on (BIRK) stock is a Hold with a $47.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Birkenstock Holding plc stock, see the BIRK Stock Forecast page.

Birkenstock Flags 18% Constant-Currency Revenue Growth in Preliminary Q1 Update

On January 12, 2026, Birkenstock Holding plc announced that it expects to report fiscal first-quarter 2026 revenue of €402 million for the period ended December 31, 2025, representing year-on-year growth of 11.1% on a reported basis and 17.8% in constant currency, with the gap driven mainly by the depreciation of the US dollar against the euro. The company is releasing these preliminary figures ahead of its appearance at the 2026 ICR Consumer Conference on January 12–13 and its Capital Markets Day on January 28, signalling robust top-line momentum as it engages the investment community; full first-quarter results are scheduled for February 12, 2026, when Birkenstock will brief analysts and investors via a conference call and webcast, underscoring its efforts to build visibility and credibility in public markets.

The most recent analyst rating on (BIRK) stock is a Buy with a $50.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Birkenstock Holding plc stock, see the BIRK Stock Forecast page.

Birkenstock Beats Fiscal 2025 Targets and Maps Double-Digit Growth Plan for 2026

On December 18, 2025, Birkenstock Holding plc reported strong results for its fiscal year ended September 30, 2025, with revenue rising 16% to €2.1 billion (18% in constant currency), ahead of guidance, and double‑digit growth in all regions and channels. Profitability improved despite currency and U.S. tariff headwinds: gross margin edged up to 59.1%, adjusted EBITDA increased 20% with margin expanding to 31.8%, and net profit surged 82% to €348 million, supported by higher average selling prices, a shift toward higher‑priced closed‑toe shoes, and better utilization of manufacturing capacity. The company continued to expand its footprint by opening 30 net new own‑retail stores to reach 97 globally, lifted APAC’s share of revenue, invested about €85 million in production capacity, trimmed net leverage to 1.5x after repurchasing €176 million of shares, and executed an early term‑loan repayment. For fiscal 2026, Birkenstock is targeting further double‑digit constant‑currency revenue growth, at least €700 million in adjusted EBITDA with margins still around 30% despite expected currency and tariff pressures, additional capex and around 40 new own stores, and plans for a new share repurchase program, signaling confidence in its growth trajectory and balance sheet strength.

The most recent analyst rating on (BIRK) stock is a Buy with a $72.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Birkenstock Holding plc stock, see the BIRK Stock Forecast page.

Birkenstock to Announce Q4 and Full Year 2025 Financial Results

On November 18, 2025, Birkenstock Holding plc announced that it will release its financial results for the fourth quarter and full fiscal year 2025 on December 18, 2025. The company will also host a conference call and webcast for investors on the same day. This announcement is significant for stakeholders as it provides insights into the company’s financial performance and future outlook.

The most recent analyst rating on (BIRK) stock is a Buy with a $66.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Birkenstock Holding plc stock, see the BIRK Stock Forecast page.