Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK) AI Stock Analysis

Compare

325 Followers

Top Page

Birkenstock Holding plc

(NYSE:BIRK)

Rating:76Outperform

Price Target:

$65.00

▲( 18.16% Upside)

Birkenstock has shown strong financial performance with significant revenue growth, improved profitability, and solid balance sheet metrics. The technical analysis indicates bullish momentum, though caution is advised due to overbought signals. The high P/E ratio suggests a premium valuation, which could deter value-focused investors. The positive earnings call further strengthens the company's outlook despite some macroeconomic challenges. Overall, Birkenstock is well-positioned for growth, though investors should be mindful of valuation concerns.

Positive Factors

Brand Strength

Birkenstock remains one of the best run brands, if not the best run brand, in our coverage, and its high margins, and full price realization underscores the strength.

Financial Performance

The 2Q25 EPS, revenue, gross margin, and EBITDA margins beat consensus expectations.

Market Positioning

BIRK is among the most insulated from tariffs given its global exposure and 100% European production.

Negative Factors

Tariff Impact

Management expects to take global price increases to offset the margin impact from tariffs, which shows the company's ability to adapt to external challenges.

Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$10.60B

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)2.03M

Price to Earnings (P/E)38.3

Beta (1Y)1.05

Revenue Growth18.55%

EPS Growth147.70%

CountryUS

Employees6,200

SectorConsumer Cyclical

Sector Strength74

IndustryApparel - Footwear & Accessories

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.62

Shares Outstanding187,829,210

10 Day Avg. Volume2,653,578

30 Day Avg. Volume2,029,534

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio2.34

Price to Book (P/B)2.74

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio20.21

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$68.00

Price Target Upside23.61% Upside

Rating ConsensusStrong Buy

Number of Analyst Covering14

Birkenstock Holding plc Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionBirkenstock Holding plc (BIRK) is a renowned global footwear company specializing in high-quality, ergonomically designed sandals and shoes. With a legacy dating back to 1774, Birkenstock has become synonymous with comfort and durability. The company operates in the fashion and apparel sectors, offering a diverse range of products that cater to different consumer needs, including casual wear, professional attire, and specialized orthotic solutions. Birkenstock is committed to sustainability and innovation, utilizing eco-friendly materials and production methods to deliver products that prioritize both consumer well-being and environmental responsibility.

How the Company Makes MoneyBirkenstock Holding plc generates revenue primarily through the sale of its footwear products, which include sandals, shoes, and insoles. The company's key revenue streams are its retail operations, both online and through brick-and-mortar stores, as well as wholesale distribution to third-party retailers globally. Birkenstock's strong brand reputation and loyal customer base drive consistent demand for its products. Additionally, strategic partnerships and collaborations with fashion designers and other brands enhance its market presence and expand its consumer reach. The company's focus on sustainability and quality also allows it to command premium pricing, contributing to its overall earnings.

Birkenstock Holding plc Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Birkenstock Holding plc demonstrates strong financial health with robust revenue and profitability growth, solid balance sheet metrics, and effective cash flow management. While there is room for improvement in cash generation relative to net income, overall financial stability and growth prospects remain positive.

Income Statement

Very Positive

Birkenstock Holding plc has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with the latest TTM revenue reaching approximately $1.87 billion, up from $1.49 billion in the previous year, indicating robust growth. The gross profit margin is healthy at around 57.6%, and the net profit margin has improved to 11.7%, highlighting improved profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are strong, reflecting operational efficiency. These positive trends showcase strong financial performance in the income statement.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The company maintains a solid balance sheet with an equity ratio of 54.9%, indicating a strong equity position relative to total assets. The debt-to-equity ratio has improved to 0.51, showcasing effective leverage management. Return on equity has increased to 8.0%, reflecting enhanced shareholder returns. Overall, the balance sheet indicates a stable financial position, with a cautious approach to leverage.

Cash Flow

Positive

Birkenstock's cash flow statement reveals a positive trajectory in free cash flow, growing to $373 million in the latest TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is robust, ensuring strong cash conversion. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is slightly lower, suggesting room for improvement in cash generation relative to net income. Overall, the company exhibits solid cash flow management.

TTM	Sep 2024	Sep 2023	Sep 2022	Sep 2021	Sep 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
1.87B	1.80B	1.49B	1.24B	962.13M	728.55M
	Gross Profit
1.08B	1.06B	925.79M	749.80M	545.65M	260.28M
	EBIT
455.86M	421.08M	260.69M	363.03M	230.25M	-42.71M
	EBITDA
535.07M	503.67M	360.35M	423.14M	230.25M	3.35M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
218.88M	191.60M	75.02M	187.11M	116.44M	-106.19M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
298.59M	376.46M	354.06M	307.08M	235.34M	96.18M
	Total Assets
5.01B	4.88B	4.83B	4.79B	4.27B	803.56M
	Total Debt
1.39B	1.35B	1.98B	2.04B	1.89B	220.43M
	Net Debt
1.10B	994.23M	1.64B	1.74B	1.65B	124.26M
	Total Liabilities
2.26B	2.26B	2.43B	2.43B	2.20B	395.39M
	Stockholders Equity
2.75B	2.63B	2.40B	2.36B	2.06B	398.16M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
373.00M	354.80M	255.79M	161.54M	159.65M	171.26M
	Operating Cash Flow
447.61M	428.70M	358.73M	234.14M	181.41M	193.60M
	Investing Cash Flow
-66.48M	-58.80M	-100.73M	-71.65M	-18.20M	-3.50M
	Financing Cash Flow
-254.72M	-355.05M	-199.28M	-105.32M	-84.96M	-130.25M

Birkenstock Holding plc Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price55.01

Price Trends

50DMA

49.09

Positive

100DMA

51.96

Positive

200DMA

51.77

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

1.91

Negative

RSI

60.97

Neutral

STOCH

46.52

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BIRK, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 55.01 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 53.32, above the 50-day MA of 49.09, and above the 200-day MA of 51.77, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.91 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.97 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 46.52 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BIRK.

Birkenstock Holding plc Risk Analysis

Birkenstock Holding plc disclosed 81 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Birkenstock Holding plc reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Birkenstock Holding plc Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (62)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
DECK	83 Outperform	$19.55B	20.02	39.80%	―	19.40%	32.70%
CROX	79 Outperform	$6.33B	6.91	53.70%	―	2.09%	26.18%
BIRK	76 Outperform	$10.60B	38.26	9.35%	―	18.55%	147.70%
SHOO	76 Outperform	$1.92B	11.42	19.51%	3.17%	10.17%	-4.71%
SKX	72 Outperform	$9.28B	14.92	14.67%	―	10.66%	9.44%
WWW	68 Neutral	$1.40B	19.49	25.29%	2.31%	-13.05%	―
Sector *	62 Neutral	$6.97B	11.36	2.77%	3.91%	2.66%	-22.00%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

BIRK

Birkenstock Holding plc

55.01

8.72

18.84%

CROX

Crocs

111.38

-31.24

-21.90%

DECK

Deckers Outdoor

126.09

-24.69

-16.37%

SKX

Skechers USA

62.02

-5.36

-7.95%

SHOO

Steven Madden

24.69

-15.87

-39.13%

WWW

Wolverine World Wide

16.63

4.21

33.90%

Birkenstock Holding plc Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 15, 2025

(Q2-2025)

% Change Since: 0.95%|

Next Earnings Date:Aug 28, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

Birkenstock's second quarter results indicate strong revenue growth across regions and segments, successful retail expansion, and improvements in gross margin and profits. However, the company is preparing to manage potential challenges from tariffs and currency fluctuations, and there is an increase in general administration expenses. Overall, the positive aspects significantly outweigh the negative ones.

Q2-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Record Revenue Achievement

Birkenstock delivered a record €574 million in revenues for Q2 2025, which is a 19% increase year-over-year on a reported basis and 18% in constant currency, surpassing their 15-17% target for the year.

Strong Performance Across Segments

The Americas region grew revenue by 23% in reported currency and 20% in constant currency, driven by both B2B and DTC channels. The APAC region was the fastest-growing segment with 30% growth, and China more than doubled its revenue year-over-year.

Gross Margin and Profit Growth

Gross margin increased by 140 basis points to 57.7%, and adjusted EBITDA grew 23% year-over-year to €200 million. Adjusted net profit increased 33% year-over-year.

Closed-Toe Silhouettes Growth

Revenue from closed-toe silhouettes grew at twice the rate of the overall group and increased its share of business by 400 basis points.

Retail Expansion Success

Birkenstock expanded its retail presence to 77 owned stores, adding six new doors in Q2, with plans to reach 100 owned stores by the end of the fiscal year.

Negative Updates

Tariff and FX Headwinds

The company faces potential headwinds from tariffs and recent depreciation in the dollar, which could impact reported growth and margins in the second half of the year.

Higher G&A Expenses

General administration expenses increased by 150 basis points year-over-year due to reclassification and higher IT expenses related to an ERP conversion.

Company Guidance

During Birkenstock's Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company reported a record €574 million in revenues, marking a 19% increase year-over-year on a reported basis. Revenue growth was driven by an 18% increase in constant currency, surpassing the high end of their 15% to 17% annual growth target. The growth was balanced between B2B and DTC channels, with B2B increasing by 18% and DTC by 17%. The company's gross margin improved to 57.7%, up 140 basis points year-over-year, while adjusted EBITDA reached €200 million, up 23% with a margin of 34.8%. The Americas region showed a strong 23% revenue growth in reported currency, while EMEA saw a 12% increase. The APAC region was the fastest-growing segment with a 30% increase in revenue. Birkenstock also highlighted strong demand for closed-toe silhouettes, which grew at twice the rate of the overall group, contributing to a 400 basis point increase in their share of business. The company revised its adjusted EBITDA margin guidance upwards to 31.3% to 31.8%, reflecting a 50 basis point increase over previous expectations, and highlighted their strategic efforts to mitigate impacts from tariffs and exchange rate fluctuations.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.