Centrica (CPYYY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $12.23B
• Dividend Yield: 2.67%
• Average Volume (3M): 692.00
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.29
• Revenue Growth: -2.19%
• EPS Growth: -124.15%
• Country: US
• Employees: 21,038
• Sector: Utilities
• Sector Strength: 65
• Industry: Independent Power Producers
• EPS (TTM): 0.23
• Shares Outstanding: 1,151,260,600
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 0
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 692
• PEG Ratio: 1.09
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.62
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.42
• P/FCF Ratio: 25.65
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.65
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.41
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.05
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 1.43
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.66
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $29.12B

• Rating: 58 Neutral
• Price Target: $11.50 ▲(17.59% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/21/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/21/26

Overall score reflects mid-range financial quality: strong operating margins and improved leverage are offset by recent revenue declines and a return to net losses, with cash flow still positive but less robust than 2023. Technicals are modestly supportive (price above key longer-term averages and positive MACD), while valuation is constrained by a negative P/E despite a moderate dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Positive cash generation & FCF rebound

A sharp year-over-year rebound in free cash flow and positive operating cash flow indicate improved capacity to fund operations, service debt and invest in growth. Persistent positive FCF enhances resilience versus earnings volatility and supports steady capital allocation to services and optimization initiatives.

Improved leverage / balance sheet

Debt roughly in line with equity and improvement versus prior stressed periods signals stronger financial flexibility. A more manageable capital structure reduces refinancing risk across cycles and supports sustained investment in energy services and customer-facing operations over the medium term.

Operating margin strength

High gross and operating margins in 2025 indicate Centrica retains structural profitability in core supply and services lines. Durable margin strength supports reinvestment and cushions volatility from wholesale swings, particularly when combined with its services and trading capabilities to manage cost of supply.

Negative Factors

Weaker cash flow cushioning

Operating cash flow decline from 2023 and weaker cash-to-earnings linkage reduce the cushion against adverse shocks. If operating cash generation slips further, the company may face tighter funding for working capital, capital expenditure or hedging needs, constraining strategic flexibility over several quarters.

Earnings volatility / net loss

A swing to a net loss despite solid operating margins highlights non-operating pressures or timing issues that impair reported profitability. Persistent earnings volatility undermines predictability for stakeholders and makes sustained dividend or investment guidance harder to support across cycles.

Revenue decline

Two consecutive years of revenue decline suggest weaker top-line momentum in core retail and business supply. Sustained revenue softness can pressure scale economics in billing, customer service and field operations, reducing long-term operating leverage and limiting margin upside absent new customer or product growth.

Centrica Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Centrica plc operates as an integrated energy company in the United Kingdom, Ireland, Norway, North America, and internationally. The company operates through British Gas Services & Solutions, British Gas Energy, Centrica Business Solutions, Bord Gáis Energy, Energy Marketing & Trading, and Upstream segments. It supplies gas and electricity to residential customers, as well as offers energy-related services; and generates power from nuclear assets. The company also provides installation, repair, and maintenance services for domestic central heating, plumbing and drains, home electrical, and gas and kitchen appliances; and heating, ventilation, and air conditioning equipment, as well as offers breakdown services. In addition, it is involved in the procurement, trading, and optimization of energy; procurement and sale of LNG; and supplies energy efficiency solutions and technologies to residential customers. Further, the company produces and processes gas and oil; develops new fields to maintain reserves; constructs, owns, and exploits infrastructure; and engages in the social enterprise investment fund activities. Additionally, it provides vehicle leasing, commercial, and insurance services, as well as energy management products and services; and operates a gas storage and franchise network. The company was formerly known as Yieldtop plc and changed its name to Centrica plc in December 1996. Centrica plc was founded in 1812 and is based in Windsor, the United Kingdom.

How the Company Makes Money

Centrica makes money primarily by supplying energy and related services to households and businesses, complemented by earnings from energy services activities and energy trading/optimization. 1) Retail energy supply (residential and business) - Centrica sells electricity and natural gas to customers, generating revenue based on the volume of energy delivered and the applicable tariffs/contract terms. - Profit is driven by the gross margin between the price charged to customers and Centrica’s cost to procure energy (wholesale electricity/gas), adjusted for network charges, policy costs, and operating costs (billing, customer service, IT, bad debt). - The company manages commodity price risk and customer demand risk through hedging and structured procurement to stabilize margins over time. 2) Energy services and home services - Centrica earns service revenue from installation, repair, and maintenance offerings related to home heating and other energy-related equipment (for example, servicing boilers and providing home service plans). - Revenue is generated through one-off call-out/installation fees and recurring service plan subscriptions. Profit depends on service plan pricing, technician utilization, parts and labor costs, and claims frequency. 3) Business energy solutions (where applicable) - For commercial and industrial customers, Centrica can earn revenue from energy supply contracts and value-added services that support energy management, procurement, and operational needs. - Margins depend on contract structure (fixed vs. variable pricing), customer retention, and Centrica’s ability to procure/hedge energy efficiently. 4) Energy trading, optimization, and portfolio management - Centrica generates earnings from trading and optimization activities that support its supply businesses and, where permitted, from market opportunities in wholesale energy markets. - This can include capturing value from asset and contract flexibility (e.g., timing of purchases/sales), managing imbalance and shape risk, and optimizing storage/transport or other contractual optionality. Earnings can vary with market volatility and available flexibility. 5) Other factors influencing earnings - Regulatory and policy frameworks (particularly in the UK energy retail market) can affect allowed pricing, customer switching dynamics, and cost recovery. - Weather-driven demand, wholesale price levels/volatility, and customer credit/bad-debt trends can materially influence profitability. Significant partnerships: null

Centrica Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mid-range fundamentals: strong gross and operating margins in 2025 and improved leverage versus prior stress periods, but revenue has declined in 2024–2025 and earnings swung to a small net loss. Cash flow is positive and FCF rebounded, though operating cash flow is down from 2023 and provides less cushion given negative earnings.

Income Statement

Profitability has been volatile. The company delivered strong operating performance in 2025 (high gross and operating margins), but earnings swung to a small net loss versus solid profitability in 2023–2024. Revenue has also softened recently (down in 2024 and 2025, after growth in 2022–2023), which raises questions about near-term momentum even as core operating margins remain healthy.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks manageable today, with debt roughly in line with equity in 2025 and improved versus periods of heavy leverage (notably 2020 and 2022). However, equity has compressed versus 2024 and the capital structure has historically been prone to swings, suggesting the balance sheet is better than it was but still not consistently sturdy across cycles.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is positive, with operating cash flow and free cash flow both positive in 2025 and free cash flow rebounding sharply year over year. That said, cash flow relative to earnings is not especially strong in the latest year (and earnings were negative), and operating cash flow has stepped down from the much stronger 2023 level—signaling less cushion if operating conditions tighten.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	19.06B	19.91B	26.46B	23.74B	14.74B
Gross Profit	7.37B	4.09B	9.62B	2.04B	1.63B
EBITDA	5.41B	2.42B	7.30B	506.00M	721.00M
Net Income	-70.42M	1.33B	3.93B	-782.00M	1.21B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	15.39B	18.73B	21.37B	29.04B	27.09B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	4.30B	6.22B	6.74B	4.29B	4.63B
Total Debt	3.04B	3.51B	4.10B	4.02B	4.64B
Total Liabilities	11.90B	13.92B	17.13B	27.76B	24.34B
Stockholders Equity	3.08B	4.42B	3.88B	1.02B	2.37B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	314.94M	733.00M	2.42B	943.00M	1.19B
Operating Cash Flow	856.80M	1.15B	2.75B	1.31B	1.61B
Investing Cash Flow	-1.03B	493.00M	115.00M	-566.00M	2.26B
Financing Cash Flow	-1.19B	-1.55B	-1.41B	-917.00M	-938.00M

Centrica Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 9.78
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CPYYY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 9.78 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.70, below the 50-day MA of 10.38, and above the 200-day MA of 9.25, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.22 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.51 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 61.48 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CPYYY.

Centrica Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
WTRG	71 Outperform	$11.30B	17.43	9.18%	3.48%	21.35%	20.96%
Sector *	66 Neutral	$17.65B	18.10	5.60%	3.62%	6.62%	11.55%
PNW	65 Neutral	$11.76B	17.22	8.91%	4.15%	5.70%	-8.25%
NRG	60 Neutral	$31.23B	35.94	39.65%	1.11%	6.40%	62.12%
CPYYY	58 Neutral	$12.23B	-114.72	1.68%	2.67%	-2.19%	-124.15%
AES	52 Neutral	$10.05B	10.76	20.35%	5.06%	-1.55%	12.83%
TLN	51 Neutral	$13.84B	-78.21	-17.56%	―	80.20%	-74.33%