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Camden Property (CPT)
NYSE:CPT
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Camden Property
(NYSE:CPT)
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
$117.00
▲(8.13% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/20/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance led by strong operating cash flow and improved 2025 revenue growth, tempered by earnings/margin volatility and slightly higher leverage. The earnings outlook is mixed due to lower 2026 core FFO guidance and NOI/expense pressure, while technicals are mildly constructive and valuation is held back by a high P/E despite a supportive dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Cash Generation
A sustained upward trend in operating cash flow and a meaningful free cash flow surge in 2025 materially improve Camden’s capacity to fund development, repay debt, finance buybacks, and cover dividends without relying on volatile capital markets. Strong cash conversion reduces refinancing pressure and supports strategic optionality across cycles.
Capital Allocation
Active capital recycling and large, disciplined share repurchases demonstrate management prioritizing portfolio optimization and shareholder returns. Recycling proceeds into higher-growth Sunbelt markets and targeted buybacks enhances long-term earnings per share potential and aligns capital deployment with structural demand shifts.
Funding Stability
Securing $600M of long-dated, fixed-rate notes reduces reliance on short-term revolver and commercial paper, lowering rollover risk and stabilizing interest expense exposure. This structural shift in funding mix strengthens liquidity resilience and gives management greater flexibility to execute development and disposition plans over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Earnings Outlook
A lower 2026 core FFO outlook and guidance for negative same-store NOI indicate near-term earnings and margin pressure that could persist into 2026. This suggests difficult operating conditions, constraining internal cash available for growth and making returns more sensitive to timing of rent recovery and expense control initiatives.
Rising Leverage
A modest upward drift in leverage reduces financial flexibility and increases sensitivity to cash-flow variability. For a REIT, higher leverage narrows the margin for error if NOI weakens, potentially limiting future development starts or forcing asset sales at inopportune times to maintain covenant headroom and payout commitments.
Regulatory Risk to Ancillary Income
A regulatory change removing the ability to bill common area utilities in Denver is a structural hit to ancillary revenue and demonstrates localized regulatory vulnerability. Such rules can compress NOI in affected markets and complicate underwriting for developments and acquisitions where ancillary income was a component of projected returns.
Camden Property (CPT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$15.02B
Dividend Yield3.9%
Average Volume (3M)1.23M
Price to Earnings (P/E)30.6
Beta (1Y)0.51
Revenue Growth1.41%
EPS Growth-21.93%
CountryUS
Employees1,660
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Residential
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.44
Shares Outstanding103,408,210
10 Day Avg. Volume1,056,848
30 Day Avg. Volume1,234,448
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.23
Price to Book (P/B)2.73
Price to Sales (P/S)7.58
P/FCF Ratio30.89
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.03
Enterprise Value/Revenue9.82
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit15.98
Enterprise Value/Ebitda13.45
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$114.05Price Target Upside5.41% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering16
EPS Forecast (FY)1.34
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.58B
Camden Property Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionCamden Property Trust, an S&P 400 Company, is a real estate company primarily engaged in the ownership, management, development, redevelopment, acquisition, and construction of multifamily apartment communities. Camden owns interests in and operates 167 properties containing 56,850 apartment homes across the United States. Upon completion of 7 properties currently under development, the Company's portfolio will increase to 59,104 apartment homes in 174 properties. Camden has been recognized as one of the 100 Best Companies to Work For® by FORTUNE magazine for 13 consecutive years, most recently ranking #18. The Company also received a Glassdoor Employees' Choice Award in 2020, ranking #25 for large U.S. companies.
How the Company Makes MoneyCamden Property generates revenue primarily through the leasing of residential units in its multifamily communities. The company earns rental income from both long-term leases and short-term rentals, capitalizing on demand for quality housing in urban and suburban markets. In addition to rental income, Camden may also generate ancillary revenue from services such as parking fees, storage rentals, and pet fees. The company strategically invests in property development and redevelopment, enhancing its portfolio and increasing its rental income potential. Significant partnerships with local contractors and service providers further support its operational efficiency and cost management. Overall, Camden's revenue model is driven by its ability to maintain high occupancy rates, implement effective property management strategies, and respond to market trends.
Camden Property Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Category
Breaks down income sources, highlighting which segments contribute most to the company’s earnings and where growth opportunities or risks may lie.
Breaks down income sources, highlighting which segments contribute most to the company’s earnings and where growth opportunities or risks may lie.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyCamden Property Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 05, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call mixed demonstrable operational and capital-allocation execution (Q4 core FFO beat, active portfolio recycling, large share buybacks, declining supply trends and improving development costs) with near-term headwinds (lower 2026 core FFO guidance, negative same-store NOI at the midpoint, expense growth, weak new-lease pricing and a notable regulatory hit in Denver). Management is constructive on the medium-term outlook (expecting improvement in 2H 2026 as supply tightens and rents rebound) but acknowledges persistent uncertainty and several market-specific challenges.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Beat on Core FFO and Q4 Results
Reported Q4 2025 core FFO of $193.1 million or $1.73 per share, $0.03 ahead of the midpoint of prior quarterly guidance; finished 2025 exceeding original core FFO guidance by $0.13 per share.
Same-Property Revenue Outperformance
Same-property revenue growth for 2025 was 76 basis points (0.76%), a 1 basis point beat to the midpoint of guidance.
Active Capital Recycling and Share Repurchases
2025 transaction activity: sold 7 older communities for $375 million and acquired 4 newer assets for $423 million; Q4 sales of $201 million and one acquisition of $85 million. Marketing 11 California operating communities with preliminary indications of $1.5–$2.0 billion; plan to reinvest ~60% via 1031 into Sunbelt and use ~$650 million for share repurchases (nearly $400 million already completed). Board approved a new $600 million repurchase authorization.
Portfolio Positioning and Supply Tailwind
Management notes new supply peaked in 2024; expected completions as % of inventory to fall from nearly 4% in 2024 to <2% in 2026 and ~1.5% in 2027, supporting improved operating conditions.
Guided Market Rent and Revenue Expectations
Projected market rent growth of ~2% for the portfolio in 2026 (weighted toward 2H); 2026 same-store revenue midpoint of 75 basis points, roughly in line with 2025.
Renewal Strength and Low Move-to-Purchase
Renewals up 2.8% in Q4; renewal offers for Q1 expirations averaged +3% to +3.5%. Move-outs to purchase homes were low at 9.6% in Q4 and 9.8% for full-year 2025.
Fee/Asset Management Outperformance in Q4
Q4 beat driven entirely by higher fee and asset management income from third-party construction business (closed several jobs well under budget); however, management expects less outperformance in 2026.
Development Cost Improvements
Construction and development costs are trending down, with management seeing approximately a 5%–8% reduction in costs versus prior peaks, improving future development economics.
Negative Updates
2026 Core FFO Guidance Decline
2026 core FFO per share guidance of $6.60–$6.90 (midpoint $6.75) implies a $0.13 per share decrease from 2025, driven by expected declines in fee income, higher overhead and a same-store NOI headwind.
Same-Store NOI and Expense Pressure
At the midpoint, 2026 same-store net operating income is expected to be negative 50 basis points; expense growth expected ~3% in 2026 versus 1.7% in 2025, pressuring margins.
Weak New Lease Pricing
Q4 new lease rates declined 5.3% year-over-year; blended rate (new + renewal) was negative 1.6%, indicating ongoing pressure on new lease pricing.
Regulatory Impact in Denver on Ancillary Income
Colorado House Bill 25-1090 (effective Jan 1) eliminates ability to bill for common area utilities in Denver, reducing other income by about $1.8 million — roughly a 19 basis point hit to same-store NOI.
Noncore Legal and Transaction Expenses
Noncore adjustments for 2026 anticipated at approximately $0.14 per share, largely legal expenses and transaction pursuit costs; legal-related noncore amounts were called out (~$14 million combined noncore adjustments).
Sequential Q1 2026 Headwind
Guided Q1 2026 core FFO midpoint of $1.66, down $0.10 sequentially from Q4 2025, driven by a ~ $0.05 per share sequential decline in same-store NOI, ~$0.04 decrease in fee income, ~$0.04 increase in interest expense, and dispositions reducing non-same-store NOI.
Concentration and Market-Specific Supply Challenges
Certain markets remain challenged: Austin (graded C+, heavy new supply delivered in 2024–25) and Phoenix (elevated western supply) are expected to have limited pricing power in 2026; Tampa and some Southern California markets have moderating outlooks.
Development Starts Delayed / Mixed Economics
Management is penciling most development starts to late 2026; marquee projects (e.g., Baker in Denver, Gulch in Nashville) are challenged and delayed, with untrended stabilized returns in the mid-5% range for certain controlled sites but tougher economics for downtown projects.
Company Guidance
Camden guided 2026 core FFO of $6.60–$6.90/share (midpoint $6.75, down $0.13 vs. 2025) driven by same-store revenue growth of 75 bps (55 bps rent, 20 bps other income), same-store NOI of -50 bps at the midpoint, portfolio expense growth of ~3% (vs. 1.7% in 2025), and market rent growth of ~2% weighted to H2; each 1% of same-store NOI ≈ $0.09/share. Management models California in same-store (California is ~+25 bps to revenue and ~+40 bps to NOI), expects other income (~10% of property revenues) to grow ~2%, and forecasts supply/completions falling from ~4% of inventory in 2024 to <2% in 2026 and ~1.5% in 2027. Noncore FFO adjustments are ~$0.14/share (legal/transaction costs); planned development activity is up to $335M of starts (≈$200M spend in 2026); a $400–$500M bond deal is planned; and they assume midyear SoCal sales of ~$1.5–$2.0B with ~60% ($≈1.1B) reinvested (1031) and ~$650M modeled for buybacks (≈$400M already completed, Board approved $600M more). Q1 core FFO is guided $1.64–$1.68 (mid $1.66, down ~$0.10 sequential), with Q1 drivers including ~-$0.05/share same-store NOI, ~-$0.04 fee/asset‑mgmt, ~+$0.04 interest expense, ~-$0.02 non‑same-store NOI, partially offset by ~+$0.05 from buybacks.Camden Property Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Strong and improving operating cash flow with a notable 2025 surge in free cash flow supports flexibility, and 2025 revenue growth re-accelerated. Offsetting factors include multi-year earnings and margin volatility and a modest 2025 uptick in leverage.Income Statement
Revenue growth re-accelerated in 2025 (up ~12% vs. flat in 2024), showing improving top-line momentum. Profitability is solid with 2025 net margin around 22% and strong operating profitability, but earnings have been volatile year-to-year (net income swung from ~403M in 2023 to ~163M in 2024, then rebounded to ~384M in 2025). Gross margin also shows a sharp dip in 2025 versus prior years, suggesting higher property-level costs and/or mix effects that bear watching.72
Positive
Balance Sheet
Leverage is moderate for a residential REIT, with debt-to-equity generally in the ~0.74–0.89 range; however, 2025 moved higher as debt rose and equity declined versus 2024. Profitability on equity improved in 2025 (~8.8%) after a weak 2024 (~3.5%), but the multi-year pattern is uneven, indicating sensitivity to operating conditions and valuation/earnings swings. Overall, the balance sheet looks serviceable, though the upward drift in leverage is a key risk factor.64
Positive
Cash Flow
Operating cash flow has been consistently strong and trending upward (roughly ~519M in 2020 to ~827M in 2025). Free cash flow improved meaningfully over time and surged in 2025 (reported equal to operating cash flow), supporting financial flexibility. The main caution is variability in free cash flow in prior years (including a dip in 2024) and mixed conversion of earnings into free cash flow historically, even though 2025 conversion looks very strong.78
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.57B | 1.54B | 1.54B | 1.42B | 1.14B |
| Gross Profit | 966.31M | 944.51M | 957.68M | 893.56M | 695.71M |
| EBITDA | 1.15B | 885.60M | 1.12B | 840.05M | 832.26M |
| Net Income | 384.46M | 163.29M | 403.31M | 653.61M | 303.91M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 9.04B | 8.85B | 9.38B | 9.33B | 7.98B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 25.20M | 21.05M | 259.69M | 10.69M | 613.39M |
| Total Debt | 3.90B | 3.49B | 3.72B | 3.68B | 3.17B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.60B | 4.10B | 4.33B | 4.27B | 3.71B |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.36B | 4.68B | 4.98B | 4.99B | 4.20B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 386.22M | 381.14M | 384.02M | 295.28M | 148.75M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 826.62M | 774.88M | 794.95M | 744.71M | 577.47M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -499.54M | -285.23M | -127.13M | -1.46B | -804.39M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -322.05M | -725.49M | -417.21M | 109.93M | 421.37M |
Camden Property Technical Analysis
Positive
108.20
Price Trends
107.95
Positive
104.99
Positive
107.39
Positive
Market Momentum
0.12
Positive
50.35
Neutral
33.40
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CPT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 108.2 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 108.22, above the 50-day MA of 107.95, and above the 200-day MA of 107.39, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.12 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.35 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 33.40 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CPT.
Camden Property Risk Analysis
Camden Property disclosed 21 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Camden Property reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Camden Property Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $25.14B | 23.83 | ― | 3.83% | 7.06% | 12.05% | |
71 Outperform | $24.00B | 21.57 | 10.14% | 4.52% | 4.78% | 24.74% | |
69 Neutral | $17.23B | 24.55 | 12.09% | 3.98% | 6.92% | 53.76% | |
68 Neutral | $19.84B | 33.18 | 11.22% | 4.81% | 2.38% | 17.42% | |
66 Neutral | $15.02B | 30.58 | 8.49% | 3.90% | 1.41% | -21.93% | |
66 Neutral | $16.19B | 35.67 | 7.67% | 4.42% | 0.91% | 6.55% | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
CPT
Camden Property
108.75
-7.86
-6.74%
AVB
AvalonBay
177.58
-38.33
-17.75%
EQR
Equity Residential
63.56
-6.30
-9.01%
MAA
Mid-America Apartment
134.09
-23.32
-14.81%
ESS
Essex Property
258.40
-32.18
-11.08%
UDR
UDR
37.54
-4.26
-10.20%
Camden Property Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Camden Property Trust Issues $600 Million Senior Notes
Positive
Feb 19, 2026
On February 17, 2026, Camden Property Trust entered into an underwriting agreement to issue $600 million of 4.900% notes due 2036, with the transaction closing on February 19, 2026. The notes were priced at 99.936% of face value, bear semiannual interest starting August 28, 2026, and are callable at the company’s option, with standard make-whole and par call provisions ahead of maturity.
Net proceeds of about $594 million will be used primarily to repay borrowings under Camden’s $1.2 billion unsecured revolving credit facility and its $600 million commercial paper program, as well as for general corporate purposes. The deal deepens the company’s fixed-rate funding, reduces short-term debt exposure, and channels proceeds to lenders and underwriters that are also key banking partners across its credit and commercial paper programs.
The most recent analyst rating on (CPT) stock is a Buy with a $124.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Camden Property stock, see the CPT Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.