tiprankstipranks
Trending News
More News >
Mid-America Apartment Communities (MAA)
NYSE:MAA

Mid-America Apartment (MAA) AI Stock Analysis

Compare
766 Followers

Top Page

MAA

Mid-America Apartment

(NYSE:MAA)

Select Model
Select Model
Select Model
Neutral 67 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$145.00
â–²(6.72% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/26/26
The score is driven primarily by solid underlying financial performance (steady growth and strong cash generation) offset by recent margin/earnings pressure and rising leverage. Guidance points to near-term NOI/FFO headwinds and higher interest expense, while technicals are neutral and valuation looks mixed (high P/E despite a strong dividend yield).
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Consistent operating cash flow and recurring positive free cash flow provide durable internal funding for dividends, renovations and selective external growth. This cash conversion allows MAA to fund development and buybacks without relying solely on volatile capital markets, supporting long-term financial flexibility.
High occupancy and resident retention
Sustained ~95%+ occupancy, sector-leading resident scores and high retention reduce turnover and vacancy risk, supporting steady rental cash flows and lower leasing costs. Durable resident satisfaction and low delinquencies improve collection stability and resilience across economic cycles.
Attractive development & renovation returns
A $932M pipeline with development yields materially above market cap rates and renovation projects delivering double-digit NOI/comparable cash-on-cash returns creates a structural spread. This supports long-term value creation as stabilized assets boost portfolio cash yields and franchise value over time.
Negative Factors
Rising leverage and higher interest costs
Higher net leverage and meaningful incremental interest expense reduce financial flexibility and increase sensitivity to rate moves. In a rate‑sensitive REIT model this compresses distributable cash flow, constrains opportunistic spending, and raises refinancing risk for maturities into 2026–2027.
Same-store NOI and margin pressure
Sustained margin compression and a projected same-store NOI decline signal structural cost and pricing headwinds. Lower NOI reduces FFO generation and the internal funding available for yield-accretive investments, pressuring long-term dividend support and returns on new capital.
Lease-up delays and elevated concessions
Extended lease-up timelines and higher concessions postpone stabilization and compress near-term returns from new development and acquisitions. This increases execution risk, delays accretion to FFO, and raises the breakeven horizon for recent external growth initiatives.

Mid-America Apartment (MAA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Mid-America Apartment Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionMAA, an S&P 500 company, is a real estate investment trust, or REIT, focused on delivering full-cycle and superior investment performance for shareholders through the ownership, management, acquisition, development and redevelopment of quality apartment communities in the Southeast, Southwest, and Mid-Atlantic regions of the United States. As of December 31, 2020, MAA had ownership interest in 102,772 apartment units, including communities currently in development, across 16 states and the District of Columbia.
How the Company Makes MoneyMAA generates revenue primarily through the leasing of apartment units to residents, which constitutes its core business model. The company's key revenue streams include rental income from both residential leases and ancillary income from services such as pet fees, parking fees, and other community amenities. Additionally, MAA benefits from strategic partnerships with construction and development firms, allowing for cost-effective property improvements and expansions. The company also capitalizes on favorable market conditions and demographic trends to optimize occupancy rates and rental pricing, contributing to its overall financial performance.

Mid-America Apartment Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Net Operating Income By Segment
Net Operating Income By Segment
Calculates income after operating expenses, revealing profitability and financial health across different segments. It’s a key indicator of property performance and management efficiency.
Chart InsightsMid-America Apartment's Same Store NOI shows resilience with a steady upward trend, despite recent fluctuations. The Non-Same Store segment, however, experienced volatility, reflecting broader market challenges. Lease-Up & Development Communities are gaining momentum, indicating strategic growth potential. The earnings call highlights strong absorption trends and stable occupancy, but warns of supply pressures in key markets like Austin and Phoenix. Management's focus on high-growth markets and a robust development pipeline suggests optimism, yet the muted acquisition market and slower lease pricing recovery remain concerns.
Data provided by:The Fly

Mid-America Apartment Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 04, 2026
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a cautiously optimistic outlook: operations show steady fundamentals with occupancy, renewal pricing, record resident scores and low delinquencies supporting resilience. Management emphasizes a strong balance sheet, a $932M development pipeline with attractive underwritten yields (6.0%–6.5%), and strategic investments (renovations, common-area repositioning) that have demonstrated high returns (19% cash-on-cash, >10% NOI yields on amenity projects). Near-term headwinds remain—muted new-lease growth, prolonged lease-up concessions, projected same-store NOI decline (-0.75% midpoint), higher interest expense (+15%+), and slightly lower core FFO guidance versus 2025 (-~2.4% at midpoint). Overall, the positives around balance sheet strength, improving blends, strong renewal performance and long-term development economics modestly outweigh near-term operational and financing pressures, supporting a positive, constructive outlook for recovery through 2026 and into 2027.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Core FFO Results and Guidance
Q4 core FFO of $2.23 per diluted share, in line with the midpoint of Q4 guidance; full-year 2025 core FFO of $8.74 per share. 2026 core FFO guidance of $8.35 to $8.71 per share ($8.53 midpoint).
Occupancy and Collections Strength
Average physical occupancy of 95.7% in Q4 (up 10 bps YoY and vs Q3 2025); ended January with physical occupancy ~95.6%. Net delinquency was low at 0.3% of billed rents and 60-day exposure ~7.1% (in line with prior year).
Pricing and Renewal Performance
Blended lease-over-lease performance improved +40 bps YoY in Q4, supported by a +50 bps improvement in renewal rates. Renewal pricing expected to remain strong in 2026 in the 5.0% to 5.25% range.
Improving Fundamental Outlook
Management expects a 110–160 bps improvement in blended lease rates and an ~85 bps improvement in effective rent growth in 2026 vs 2025, driven by moderating new supply, continued demand, and seasonal momentum.
Strong Resident Metrics and Retention
Record retention levels, sector-leading resident Google scores averaging 4.7/5 for the year, and rent-to-income ratios improved, supporting affordability and collections durability.
Renovation and Repositioning Returns
5,995 interior unit upgrades completed in 2025 (1,227 in Q4) producing average rent premiums of $95 vs non-upgraded units, 19% cash-on-cash return, and renovated units leased ~11 days faster than non-renovated units (adjusted).
Common Area Repositioning Success
Six recent common-area/amenity projects are >70% repriced on average with NOI yields above 10% and outperformance in rent growth versus peer MAA properties; 5 additional projects underway targeting repricing in mid-2026.
Development Pipeline and Strategic Purchases
Active development pipeline of $932 million after purchasing a shovel-ready Scottsdale project and a land parcel in Clarendon (Arlington, VA) for a 287-unit community; expect to begin construction on 5–7 new projects in 2026.
Attractive Development Yields vs Market
Underwritten/stabilized NOI yields for development expected between 6.0% and 6.5%, materially above reported market cap rates (~4.6%), providing a meaningful spread for long-term value creation.
Healthy Balance Sheet and Liquidity
Combined cash and revolver capacity of $880 million; net debt-to-EBITDA of 4.3x; ~87% of debt fixed with weighted average maturity 6.4 years at an effective rate of 3.8%. Issued $400M 7-year bonds at ≈4.75% and repurchased 207,000 shares at $131.61 (first repurchase since 2001).
Negative Updates
Muted New Lease Growth and Seasonality
New lease growth was muted in Q4 with flat new lease rates year-over-year; management expects new lease pricing pressure, particularly in H1 2026, with seasonal improvement backloaded into summer and later quarters.
Lease-Up Performance and Elevated Concessions
Lease-up portfolio has 3 properties remaining at combined occupancy 65.7% (end Q4); elevated concessions and longer lease-up periods have delayed full earnings contribution by ~1 year and increased near-term leasing costs (some lease-ups reporting 8–10 weeks of concessions).
Same-Store NOI and Revenue Pressures
2026 guidance projects same-store revenue growth midpoint of +0.55% but same-store NOI projected to decline -0.75% at the midpoint given expense pressures (operating expenses midpoint +2.65%); effective rent growth midpoint ~0.35%.
Near-Term FFO Dilution from External Growth
Recent developments and acquisitions are expected to be only slightly accretive in 2026 and are projected to be dilutive to core FFO in 2026 before turning accretive post-stabilization (closer to 2027+).
Higher Interest Expense and Financing Costs
Interest expense expected to increase by over +15% in 2026 due to refinancing and financing activity (including refinancing $300M maturing bonds and redeeming preferred shares), with incremental interest expense of >$0.05 per share noted.
Core FFO Guidance Below Prior-Year Level
Midpoint 2026 core FFO ($8.53) is below 2025 core FFO ($8.74), an implied decline of ~-2.4% year-over-year at the midpoint, reflecting near-term pressure from supply, lease-ups and higher financing costs.
Operational Disruptions from Weather Event
Winter Storm Fern impacted ~70% of the portfolio, temporarily slowing traffic and operations; management expects to exclude (partially) the impact from core FFO pending insurance recoveries, but it added short-term disruption risk.
Vendor and Delivery Delays on Technology Initiatives
Community-wide WiFi retrofit projects experienced vendor challenges and equipment delivery delays; 14 of 23 projects went live in 2025 with 9 expected in Q1 2026, slowing planned technology rollouts.
Company Guidance
MAA guided 2026 core FFO of $8.35–$8.71 per diluted share (midpoint $8.53) with same-store revenue growth midpoint of 0.55% (rental pricing earn‑in -0.2%, blended rental pricing 1.0–1.5%), renewal pricing expected at 5.0–5.25%, effective rent growth ~0.35% at the midpoint, and average occupancy guidance of 95.6%; other revenue is expected to grow just over 2% while same‑store operating expenses are projected to rise ~2.65% (personnel <2%), producing a midpoint same‑store NOI decline of ~0.75%, plus a $0.19 NOI contribution from non‑same‑store assets. Management plans $350–$450M of external growth funded with debt and internal cash flow, will match‑fund $250M of acquisitions with dispositions, and expects 5–7 new developments to begin in 2026 (active pipeline $932M; ~$81M funded in Q4, ~$306M remaining to fund over the next 3 years) with stabilized NOI yields of 6.0–6.5% (common‑area projects averaging >10% NOI yield); balance sheet metrics include $880M combined cash/credit capacity, net debt/EBITDA ~4.3x, ~87% of debt fixed with 6.4‑year average maturity at a 3.8% effective rate (including a $400M 7‑yr issuance at ~4.75%), planned refinancing of $300M maturing Sep‑2026, expected incremental interest expense >$0.05 and total interest expense up >15%, a modestly dilutive 2026 FFO impact from recent developments/acquisitions that should turn accretive after stabilization, a repurchase of 207,000 shares at $131.61 in Q4, and an expectation to exclude Winter Storm Fern impacts from core FFO as insurance proceeds are recovered.

Mid-America Apartment Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Solid operating profile with steady revenue growth and consistently positive operating/free cash flow, but recent margin/earnings softening and gradually rising leverage temper the strength.
Income Statement
78
Positive
Revenue has grown steadily over the last several years, with a notable acceleration in 2025 (+26% vs. 2024). Profitability is solid for a residential REIT profile, with strong EBITDA margins (~59–71%) and healthy net margins historically. The main weakness is recent margin compression and earnings pressure: net income declined in 2025 versus 2024, and gross/net margins have trended down from the 2022–2023 highs, suggesting higher costs, pricing pressure, or mix impacts.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The balance sheet is reasonably supported by equity, with debt-to-equity generally below 1.0, but leverage has been creeping up recently (debt-to-equity rising to ~0.95 in 2025 from ~0.75 in 2021–2023). Returns on equity are positive and fairly stable (~8–11% in most years), though they have softened versus the stronger 2022 level. Overall, the capital structure looks manageable, but the rising debt load is a clear watch item in a rate-sensitive REIT environment.
Cash Flow
74
Positive
Operating cash flow has been consistently strong and relatively stable (~$0.82B–$1.14B), and free cash flow is meaningfully positive each year. Free cash flow improved sharply in 2022 and again in 2025 (with very high stated growth in 2025), supporting financial flexibility. The main caution is volatility: free cash flow declined in 2021 and 2024 before rebounding, and some 2025 cash-flow ratios appear reported as 0.0 (limiting comparability for coverage and conversion metrics in that year).
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue2.21B2.19B2.15B2.02B1.78B
Gross Profit703.07M713.27M747.48M687.71M517.75M
EBITDA1.32B1.30B1.29B1.35B1.25B
Net Income446.91M527.54M552.81M637.44M533.79M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets11.98B11.81B11.48B11.24B11.29B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments106.66M43.02M41.31M38.66M54.30M
Total Debt5.41B5.01B4.57B4.44B4.52B
Total Liabilities6.14B5.66B5.19B5.03B5.10B
Stockholders Equity5.68B5.96B6.11B6.03B6.00B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow717.94M775.92M795.96M762.30M383.69M
Operating Cash Flow1.08B1.10B1.14B1.06B894.97M
Investing Cash Flow-690.22M-825.50M-775.26M-405.24M-253.59M
Financing Cash Flow-370.74M-271.12M-367.90M-722.77M-546.40M

Mid-America Apartment Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price135.87
Price Trends
50DMA
134.54
Negative
100DMA
132.57
Positive
200DMA
138.10
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.03
Positive
RSI
49.56
Neutral
STOCH
39.84
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MAA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 135.87 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 133.87, above the 50-day MA of 134.54, and below the 200-day MA of 138.10, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.03 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 49.56 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 39.84 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MAA.

Mid-America Apartment Risk Analysis

Mid-America Apartment disclosed 44 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Mid-America Apartment reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Mid-America Apartment Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
70
Outperform
$16.24B12.37-0.92%6.34%-20.69%330.60%
69
Neutral
$17.23B24.8512.09%3.98%6.92%53.76%
67
Neutral
$16.07B35.407.67%4.42%0.91%6.55%
66
Neutral
$15.02B30.748.49%3.90%1.41%-21.93%
65
Neutral
$2.17B12.193.79%4.94%3.15%1.96%
64
Neutral
$15.64B42.696.09%4.30%6.82%27.91%
63
Neutral
$10.86B25.306.36%3.81%7.63%23.16%
* Real Estate Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
MAA
Mid-America Apartment
135.87
-24.11
-15.07%
SUI
Sun Communities
135.78
9.86
7.83%
ESS
Essex Property
262.74
-30.12
-10.28%
CPT
Camden Property
110.24
-8.42
-7.09%
AMH
American Homes
30.35
-4.83
-13.73%
INVH
Invitation Homes
26.30
-5.77
-17.98%

Mid-America Apartment Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Mid-America Apartment Prices Add-On Senior Notes Offering
Positive
Feb 25, 2026

On February 25, 2026, Mid-America Apartments, L.P., the operating partnership of Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc., priced a $200 million public offering of 4.650% senior unsecured notes due January 15, 2033, under its existing shelf registration. The notes are being issued as additional securities to the $400 million 4.650% senior notes sold in November 2025, sharing the same terms, series and CUSIP, and were priced at 100.237% of principal with a reoffer yield of 4.606%.

The transaction, expected to close on February 27, 2026 subject to customary conditions, is structured to bolster MAA’s balance sheet flexibility by refinancing shorter-term borrowings. MAALP plans to use the net proceeds primarily to repay outstanding unsecured commercial paper, with any remaining funds earmarked for general corporate purposes, including potential debt repayment and investment in apartment community acquisitions, development and redevelopment.

J.P. Morgan, Citigroup, PNC Capital Markets, TD Securities (USA) and Wells Fargo Securities served as joint book-running managers on the deal, underscoring strong access to capital markets for the multifamily REIT sector. The add-on issuance extends MAA’s fixed-rate debt profile at an investment-grade coupon and supports continued capital deployment into its core Sun Belt multifamily portfolio, which may influence leverage metrics and interest expense for existing stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (MAA) stock is a Hold with a $148.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mid-America Apartment stock, see the MAA Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Mid-America Apartment Updates REIT Federal Tax Disclosures
Neutral
Feb 13, 2026

Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. has filed an updated description of the material U.S. federal income tax considerations associated with its status as a real estate investment trust and with the ownership and disposition of its common and preferred stock, replacing prior inconsistent tax disclosures, including those filed on February 14, 2025. The updated tax discussion, reviewed by Bass, Berry & Sims PLC, outlines the conditions for maintaining REIT qualification, the circumstances under which the company could incur various federal taxes despite REIT status, and highlights the complexity and potential penalties tied to compliance, underscoring the ongoing tax and regulatory risks for investors and the company’s operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (MAA) stock is a Hold with a $148.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mid-America Apartment stock, see the MAA Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresLegal Proceedings
Mid-America Apartment Communities Reaches Major Antitrust Settlement
Negative
Jan 28, 2026

On January 26, 2026, Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. and its subsidiary agreed to settle their involvement in a consolidated class action antitrust lawsuit alleging that RealPage and roughly 50 major multifamily landlords conspired to inflate apartment rents through revenue management software. The company will contribute $53 million to a settlement fund, payable in two installments beginning no earlier than March 2, 2026, to resolve all related claims, subject to court approval, and has also agreed to certain prospective commitments around use and disclosure of nonpublic data and revenue management tools that it says align with its current practices and should not materially alter operations. Mid-America will increase its loss contingency reserve to $62.5 million in its 2025 year-end financials to cover the settlement and related legal costs, but says the charge will not affect 2025 Core Funds from Operations or Funds Available for Distribution, does not expect any material impact on liquidity, leverage, credit rating, dividend policy or capital allocation plans, and believes the settlement reduces significant legal uncertainty and risk associated with complex antitrust litigation while allowing management to remain focused on its core apartment business.

The most recent analyst rating on (MAA) stock is a Buy with a $150.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mid-America Apartment stock, see the MAA Stock Forecast page.

DividendsFinancial Disclosures
Mid-America Apartment Announces 2025 Dividend Tax Composition
Neutral
Jan 20, 2026

On January 20, 2026, MAA announced the taxable composition of its 2025 dividend distributions for both its common stock and 8.5% Series I cumulative redeemable preferred stock, stating that no portion of the 2025 distributions is expected to constitute a return of capital and that the company incurred no foreign taxes. The company detailed that nearly all 2025 distributions are classified as ordinary taxable income with a small portion treated as long-term capital gain, and said the information, based on preliminary tax work and released to assist shareholders and 1099 preparers, is not expected to change materially, providing clarity on the tax treatment of its payouts for investors and intermediaries.

The most recent analyst rating on (MAA) stock is a Buy with a $150.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mid-America Apartment stock, see the MAA Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Mid-America Apartment Investor Presentation Release
Positive
Dec 8, 2025

On December 8, 2025, Mid-America Apartment will release a presentation to investors detailing its strategic positioning and financial outlook. The company highlights its strong demand dynamics, declining supply impact, and superior long-term shareholder returns. MAA’s focus on high-growth Sunbelt markets and its ability to capture positive in-migration trends are key to its continued success. The presentation also addresses potential risks, including economic conditions and competition, while emphasizing MAA’s resilience and strategic initiatives to maintain its REIT status and deliver value to stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (MAA) stock is a Buy with a $145.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mid-America Apartment stock, see the MAA Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 26, 2026