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UDR (UDR)
NYSE:UDR

UDR (UDR) AI Stock Analysis

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UDR

UDR

(NYSE:UDR)

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Neutral 68 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$41.00
â–²(9.33% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/21/26
The score is driven primarily by solid fundamentals led by strong cash generation, supported by a cautiously constructive earnings outlook featuring strong operations but modest 2026 growth guidance. Technicals are neutral-to-slightly positive, while valuation is mixed—an attractive dividend yield is offset by a high P/E. Leverage and expense/regulatory risks are the main constraints on the score.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Consistent growth in operating cash flow and materially improved free cash flow in 2025 create durable capacity to fund dividends, reinvest in properties, and execute opportunistic buybacks or JV activity. This cash generation underpins financial flexibility across business cycles.
High occupancy & retention
Sustained high occupancy (~96–97%) combined with a ~1,000bp improvement in resident retention lowers turnover costs and stabilizes rental income. These operational gains improve predictability of cash flows and support long‑term NOI resilience versus peers.
Strong liquidity and disciplined capital allocation
Having ~ $1B liquidity, active repurchases funded partly by JV proceeds, and selective acquisitions demonstrates disciplined capital allocation. This mix of liquidity and execution options supports balance sheet management and strategic moves without forcing distress sales.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
High debt relative to equity and a decline in equity pressures financial flexibility, raises refinancing and interest‑rate sensitivity, and limits ability to pursue large acquisitions. For a REIT, elevated leverage increases risk during slower NOI or cashflow periods.
Modest near‑term earnings outlook
Management's 2026 guidance targets near‑flat FFOA and only marginal same‑store NOI growth (midpoint), while expenses are expected to normalize higher. This constrains earnings growth, limits reinvestment runway, and reduces margin expansion potential over the medium term.
Regulatory and local market risks
Rent‑control ballot risks and related regulatory uncertainty increase transaction friction, legal and advocacy costs, and can reduce sale liquidity or pricing in affected markets. Combined with uneven metro performance, this complicates portfolio management and disposal strategies.

UDR (UDR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

UDR Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionUDR, Inc. (NYSE: UDR), an S&P 500 company, is a leading multifamily real estate investment trust with a demonstrated performance history of delivering superior and dependable returns by successfully managing, buying, selling, developing and redeveloping attractive real estate communities in targeted U.S. markets. As of September 30, 2020, UDR owned or had an ownership position in 51,649 apartment homes including 1,031 homes under development. For over 48 years, UDR has delivered long-term value to shareholders, the best standard of service to Residents and the highest quality experience for Associates.
How the Company Makes MoneyUDR generates revenue primarily through the leasing of residential units within its apartment communities. The company's revenue model is largely based on rental income from tenants, which provides a steady cash flow. Additionally, UDR may earn income from ancillary services such as parking fees, pet fees, and other service-related charges. The company also benefits from property appreciation and strategic property management, which enhances its overall portfolio value. Significant partnerships with local businesses and service providers can further contribute to its earnings by offering residents exclusive deals and amenities, thereby increasing tenant satisfaction and retention rates.

UDR Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Total Homes by Geography
Total Homes by Geography
Shows the distribution of UDR's property portfolio across different regions, highlighting areas of strategic focus and potential exposure to regional market trends.
Chart InsightsUDR's strategic focus on the Northeast and Southwest regions is evident, with notable increases in total homes, particularly in the Northeast where a recent surge aligns with strong same-store revenue growth. The earnings call highlighted challenges in the Sunbelt markets, which may explain the stable but unremarkable growth in the Southeast. Despite these challenges, UDR's overall performance remains robust, bolstered by strong lease rate growth and reduced resident turnover, positioning the company well for future expansion.
Data provided by:The Fly

UDR Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 09, 2026
(Q4-2025)
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% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presents a balanced picture: strong operational execution (occupancy, retention, lease momentum, innovation driving other income), a solid balance sheet and active capital allocation (repurchases, JV activity, selective acquisitions) are clear positives. Offsetting these are modest 2026 financial guidance (near‑flat FFOA and minimal NOI growth), elevated expense normalization (taxes, Wi‑Fi rollout), regulatory/legal uncertainties in select markets, and a plan to be a net seller constrained by tax capacity. Given meaningful operational wins but tempered near‑term financial outlook and identifiable risks, the tone is cautiously constructive but measured.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
FFOA Results and Guidance
Reported fourth quarter FFOA per share of $0.64 and full year 2025 FFOA per share of $2.54 (met prior guidance midpoints). 2026 FFOA per share guidance of $2.47–$2.57 (midpoint $2.52) implies <1% year‑over‑year decline at midpoint versus 2025 after excluding two non‑recurring pennies in 2025.
Same‑Store Outperformance and NOI
Full year 2025 same‑store revenue met guidance while same‑store expense and NOI growth exceeded initial guidance; fourth quarter same‑store NOI beat expectations and company generated the second highest year‑over‑year same‑store NOI growth among its peer group in 2025.
Strong Operating Momentum — Occupancy and Lease Trends
Occupancy strengthened into the high‑96% range (nearly 97% in late 2025). Blended lease rate growth accelerated from an October low (blended -3%) to positive ~1% by January; new lease growth improved ~550 bps, renewals improved ~300 bps, and blended rents improved ~400 bps sequentially. 2026 blended lease rate growth forecast of 1.5%–2.0% (≈100 bps improvement vs. 2025).
Customer Experience and Retention Gains
Customer experience initiatives drove ~1,000 basis points improvement in resident retention vs. historical levels, resulting in approximately $35 million of higher annualized cash flow and materially lower turnover (from ~51% to ~38.5% in 2025).
Innovation and Other Income Contributions
Other income innovation expected to add ~45 bps to 2026 same‑store revenue (~$10 million, ~5% YoY growth for that line). Property‑wide Wi‑Fi expected to contribute ~1% (~$2M) and other initiatives (parking, package lockers, optimized storage, pet rent collections) expected to drive mid‑single to high‑single digit growth in other income.
Capital Allocation and Share Repurchases
Repurchased nearly $120 million of common stock during 2025 (including ~$93 million funded by JV proceeds at a weighted average price of $35.56, described as a sizable discount to NAV). Company cites 1 penny per share accretion in 2026 from 2025 repurchases.
Balance Sheet and Liquidity
Nearly $1.0 billion of liquidity at 2025 year‑end, minimal committed capital, strong free cash flow, and only 12% of consolidated debt maturing through 2027, positioning the balance sheet well to fund 2026 needs.
Strategic Acquisitions and JV Activity
Acquired The Enclave at Potomac Club (406‑unit community) for $147 million; early operations outperforming market. Expanded LaSalle JV by ~$230 million (venture size ~$850 million), generating >$200 million of proceeds used for debt repayment and buybacks.
Negative Updates
Modest 2026 NOI and FFOA Outlook
2026 same‑store revenue guidance midpoint of 1.25% and same‑store expense growth guidance midpoint of 3.75% result in a very modest midpoint same‑store NOI growth (company cited ~0.125% at midpoint). 2026 FFOA guidance implies essentially flat to slightly lower earnings versus 2025.
Expense Headwinds and Timing Comparisons
2026 same‑store expense growth guidance (3.75% midpoint) driven by normalization of real estate tax growth (taxes ≈40% of property expenses), repairs & maintenance reversion to long‑term trends after 2025’s below‑trend levels, and rollout costs for property‑wide Wi‑Fi (administrative/marketing runway).
Macroeconomic and Demand Risks
Management flags muted job growth (2026 employment forecast ~0%–1%), consumer confidence at decade lows, and potential federal/regulatory risks (tariffs, immigration uncertainties) which could dampen demand or confidence.
Regulatory and Political Uncertainty
Ongoing rent‑control and ballot risks (notably Massachusetts and a local Salinas ballot measure) created transaction/market friction (one Boston asset pulled from sale due to policy concerns) and could increase advocacy/legal costs; advocacy spend and legal costs in 2026 remain uncertain.
Disposition Strategy and Tax Capacity Limits
Plan to be a net seller in 2026; original disposition list reduced to ≈$700 million (from ~$1B) after removing at least one asset. Management expects limited taxable gain capacity (a couple hundred million dollars) which constrains disposition timing/structure and may require 1031 exchanges.
DPE (Debt & Preferred Equity) Book Contraction
Company expects the DPE investment book to decline in size (estimated 10%–25% decline in 2026) as paybacks occur and deployable opportunities are selectively pursued, meaning a potential reduction in that earnings/contribution stream.
Q4 2025 Concession Pressure and Late‑2025 Weakness
Earlier in Q4 2025, new lease growth hit negative 8% (October low) with concessions rising (average concessions ~2 weeks in October vs ~1 week later), which required strategic action to protect occupancy and pressured blends before subsequent recovery.
Market Variability Across Geographies
Management noted uneven market strength—San Francisco and New York strong, while Boston, Washington D.C., and Los Angeles were less robust—requiring differentiated positioning and increasing complexity for portfolio management.
Company Guidance
UDR's 2026 guidance calls for FFOA per share of $2.47–$2.57 (midpoint $2.52), a roughly 2‑cent (≤1%) decline versus 2025's $2.54 FY FFOA (Q4 $0.64), supported by same‑store revenue guidance of 0.25%–2.25% (midpoint 1.25%) and same‑store expense growth of 3.75% (midpoint) — which management says translates to about 1.25% year‑over‑year same‑store NOI growth at the midpoint. The company forecasts blended lease‑rate growth of 1.5%–2.0% on average in 2026 (≈100 bps higher than 2025), with lease rates contributing ~80 bps to revenue and innovation/other income adding ~45 bps (≈$10M or ~5% YoY; including ~$2M/1% from property‑wide Wi‑Fi), expects occupancy to remain in the mid‑to‑high 96% range, and notes historical innovation has driven ~50 bps of NOI per year. Capital priorities are being a net seller in 2026 (initial disposition pipeline reduced to ~ $700M from ~$1B, with tax‑gain capacity of a couple hundred million), continued opportunistic share repurchases after nearly $120M bought in 2025 (≈$93M at $35.56), a well‑positioned balance sheet with nearly $1B liquidity and ~12% of consolidated debt maturing through 2027, and an expected 10–25% decline in the debt/preferred equity (DPE) book.

UDR Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Strong and improving operating cash flow and a notable 2025 profitability rebound support fundamentals. Offsetting this, earnings have been volatile year-to-year and leverage is elevated with equity trending down, keeping overall financial strength above-average but not top-tier.
Income Statement
74
Positive
Revenue shows a steady upward trajectory from 2020 to 2025, with a notably strong jump in 2025. Profitability is generally solid for the period, with 2025 showing a sharp rebound in net profit margin versus 2024. However, earnings are volatile year-to-year (particularly the large net income swing between 2023, 2024, and 2025), which reduces predictability despite stable top-line growth.
Balance Sheet
63
Positive
The balance sheet is asset-heavy as expected for a residential REIT, but leverage is elevated: debt runs around ~1.4x–1.9x equity across the period and has drifted higher into 2025. Equity has also declined from 2022–2025, which adds pressure to leverage. Returns on equity improved meaningfully in 2025 versus 2024, but the combination of high debt and declining equity keeps overall balance-sheet strength in the middle of the pack.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
Cash generation is a clear strength. Operating cash flow has grown from 2020 to 2025, and free cash flow improved materially in 2025 versus prior years. Cash flow also compares favorably to accounting earnings in most years (and is especially strong in 2025), supporting dividend capacity and reinvestment flexibility. The main drawback is variability in free cash flow growth (including a pullback in 2023), but the overall trend remains positive.
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.71B1.67B1.63B1.52B1.29B
Gross Profit438.21M417.01M392.52M331.03M228.04M
EBITDA1.00B1.00B1.35B935.33M968.53M
Net Income377.70M89.58M444.35M86.92M150.02M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets10.61B10.90B11.37B11.04B10.78B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments36.93M1.33M2.92M1.19M967.00K
Total Debt6.19B6.01B5.98B5.68B5.61B
Total Liabilities6.46B6.44B6.42B6.10B6.00B
Stockholders Equity3.29B3.44B3.99B4.10B3.44B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow902.89M605.16M520.32M584.06M497.44M
Operating Cash Flow902.89M876.85M832.66M820.07M663.96M
Investing Cash Flow-150.99M-276.35M-289.14M-929.53M-1.27B
Financing Cash Flow-750.39M-599.94M-538.85M111.23M612.54M

UDR Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price37.50
Price Trends
50DMA
36.99
Positive
100DMA
35.95
Positive
200DMA
37.25
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.20
Positive
RSI
49.83
Neutral
STOCH
42.01
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For UDR, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 37.5 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 37.77, above the 50-day MA of 36.99, and above the 200-day MA of 37.25, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.20 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 49.83 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 42.01 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for UDR.

UDR Risk Analysis

UDR disclosed 62 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. UDR reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

UDR Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
71
Outperform
$23.86B21.5310.14%4.52%4.78%24.74%
69
Neutral
$17.01B24.5312.09%3.98%6.92%53.76%
68
Neutral
$19.82B33.2911.22%4.81%2.38%17.42%
68
Neutral
$16.04B35.347.67%4.42%0.91%6.55%
66
Neutral
$10.91B25.426.36%3.81%7.63%23.16%
66
Neutral
$14.96B30.628.49%3.90%1.41%-21.93%
65
Neutral
$2.17B12.193.79%4.94%3.15%1.96%
* Real Estate Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
UDR
UDR
37.50
-6.52
-14.81%
EQR
Equity Residential
63.21
-8.76
-12.17%
MAA
Mid-America Apartment
133.86
-29.97
-18.29%
ESS
Essex Property
255.11
-47.32
-15.65%
CPT
Camden Property
108.34
-12.53
-10.37%
AMH
American Homes
30.00
-6.01
-16.69%

UDR Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
UDR Updates Capital Markets Agreements for Flexible Financing
Positive
Feb 20, 2026

On February 20, 2026, UDR, Inc. amended its at-the-market sales agreement for offerings of common stock, updating the definitions of its sales agents and forward purchasers and tying the program to a new shelf registration statement filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on February 18, 2026. On the same date, UDR and United Dominion Realty, L.P. also amended their medium-term note distribution agreement to reference the same registration statement, streamlining the legal basis for ongoing equity and debt issuance and maintaining flexibility in accessing capital markets for corporate funding needs.

The most recent analyst rating on (UDR) stock is a Buy with a $42.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on UDR stock, see the UDR Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board Changes
UDR Expands Board With Appointment of Ellen Goitia
Positive
Jan 5, 2026

On January 5, 2026, UDR announced that it had appointed former KPMG audit leader and current Elme Communities trustee Ellen M. Goitia to its Board of Directors, effective January 1, 2026, expanding the board from nine to ten members as part of a long-term succession and director refreshment plan. Goitia, an independent director under NYSE standards, will sit on UDR’s Nominating and Governance Committee and Audit and Risk Management Committee, bringing more than three decades of accounting, finance, corporate governance and leadership experience that is expected to strengthen the board’s strategic oversight and risk management capabilities, with Ferguson Partners advising on the recruitment and UDR’s standard independent director compensation and indemnification arrangements applying to her role.

The most recent analyst rating on (UDR) stock is a Hold with a $37.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on UDR stock, see the UDR Stock Forecast page.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
UDR Announces New Investor Information Release
Neutral
Dec 8, 2025

UDR has announced that information included in Exhibit 99.1 will be available to investors starting December 8, 2025. This information is being provided in accordance with Item 7.01 and will not be considered as filed under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, nor will it be incorporated by reference into the company’s filings under the Securities Act of 1933.

The most recent analyst rating on (UDR) stock is a Hold with a $41.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on UDR stock, see the UDR Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 21, 2026