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Copa Holdings
(NYSE:CPA)
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Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
$161.00
▲(18.14% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/10/26
CPA scores well primarily due to strong financial performance (durable margins/ROE, improving leverage) and attractive valuation (low P/E and high dividend yield). The score is moderated by choppy free-cash-flow conversion and mixed near-term technical momentum, while the latest earnings call was constructive on full-year margin outlook and demand but highlighted meaningful fuel-driven volatility.
Positive Factors
Sustained Profitability
Consistently high TTM margins and strong returns reflect durable pricing power and cost control in Copa's regional network. That profitability supports reinvestment, dividends and resilience through cycles, making operating income generation a lasting structural strength for 2–6 months and beyond.
Negative Factors
Fuel Cost Sensitivity
Sharp fuel swings materially compress margins and only partial fare recovery occurred in Q2, showing earnings remain structurally exposed to oil price volatility. Persistent or repeated fuel spikes could erode profitability despite strong demand, a medium-term operating risk for airlines.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Sustained Profitability
Consistently high TTM margins and strong returns reflect durable pricing power and cost control in Copa's regional network. That profitability supports reinvestment, dividends and resilience through cycles, making operating income generation a lasting structural strength for 2–6 months and beyond.
Read all positive factors
Copa Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Copa Holdings (CPA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.53B
Dividend Yield4.89%
Average Volume (3M)302.85K
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.9
Beta (1Y)0.75
Revenue Growth14.80%
EPS Growth-1.39%
CountryUS
Employees8,565
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAirlines, Airports & Air Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)15.22
Shares Outstanding30,200,428
10 Day Avg. Volume278,151
30 Day Avg. Volume302,845
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.62
Price to Book (P/B)1.79
Price to Sales (P/S)1.38
P/FCF Ratio16.15
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$179.30Price Target Upside31.57% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)16.62
Revenue Forecast (FY)$4.40B
Copa Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Copa Holdings, S.A., through its subsidiaries, provides airline passenger, and cargo and mail transportation services in North America, South America, Central America, and the Caribbean. As of December 31, 2025, it operated through a fleet of 125 ...
How the Company Makes Money
Copa Holdings makes money primarily by selling air transportation and related services through its airline operations. The largest revenue stream is passenger revenue generated from ticket sales across its route network; pricing and revenue are dr...
Copa Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 18, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated robust top-line growth, meaningful operational strengths (high on-time performance and completion rates), strong balance sheet and active shareholder returns, alongside strategic enhancements (Starlink rollout, hub expansion and fleet flexibility). The primary negative was a sharp fuel cost increase (85% YoY) that compressed Q2 margins and led to only partial recovery of higher fuel expenses. Management reiterated cost discipline, provided an improved full-year margin outlook (17%–19%) and highlighted strong demand and booking trends, indicating confidence in returning to higher profitability as fuel moderates.Positive Updates
Revenue and Top-Line Growth
Operating revenues increased 25.7% year over year to $1.1 billion in Q2 2026, driven by demand and higher yields.
Negative Updates
Margin Compression in Q2
Operating profit of $91.7 million produced an operating margin of 8.7% in Q2 2026 versus 21.7% in Q2 2025, reflecting substantial margin pressure year over year.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue and Top-Line Growth
Operating revenues increased 25.7% year over year to $1.1 billion in Q2 2026, driven by demand and higher yields.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management updated 2026 guidance to an operating margin of 17–19% with capacity growth of 14–15% (ASMs), an assumed RASM of $0.12, ex‑fuel CASM of 5.7 cents and an all‑in jet fuel assumption of $3.60/gal; they expect an annual load factor of ~87% and H2 RASM growth of roughly +10% YoY. Balance‑sheet and cash metrics underpinning the outlook include ~$1.5B in cash (39% of LTM revenue), total debt of ~$2.7B, average cost of debt 3.7% and net debt/EBITDA of 0.9x, CapEx guidance of $700–750M, and continued shareholder returns (third quarterly dividend $1.71/sh and ~ $60M remaining on the buyback). Operational/bookings color: Q3 is ~75% booked, Q4 ~25% booked, July load factor ~90% on +16% capacity, and fleet activity includes one more 737 MAX‑8 this year with a larger delivery cadence into 2027.Copa Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
84
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
66
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.99B | 3.62B | 3.45B | 3.46B | 2.97B | 1.51B |
| Gross Profit | 1.22B | 1.29B | 1.23B | 1.27B | 897.53M | 419.59M |
| EBITDA | 1.21B | 1.24B | 1.12B | 1.08B | 743.57M | 370.51M |
| Net Income | 626.62M | 671.65M | 608.11M | 514.10M | 348.05M | 43.84M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 7.14B | 6.58B | 5.74B | 5.20B | 4.69B | 4.25B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.26B | 1.34B | 1.20B | 915.18M | 934.75M | 1.02B |
| Total Debt | 2.56B | 2.56B | 2.00B | 1.75B | 1.68B | 1.60B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.26B | 3.81B | 3.37B | 3.07B | 3.20B | 2.95B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.87B | 2.78B | 2.37B | 2.12B | 1.49B | 1.30B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 170.65M | 308.05M | 340.51M | 214.91M | 126.31M | 23.55M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.26B | 1.12B | 996.85M | 1.04B | 758.54M | 507.29M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.38B | -1.32B | -343.14M | -543.00M | -552.15M | -459.13M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 157.95M | -36.06M | -219.65M | -394.03M | -273.69M | 88.54M |
Copa Holdings Technical Analysis
Neutral
136.28
Price Trends
143.77
Negative
132.01
Positive
128.58
Positive
Market Momentum
-1.47
Positive
42.25
Neutral
4.41
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CPA, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 136.28 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 140.35, below the 50-day MA of 143.77, and above the 200-day MA of 128.58, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.47 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.25 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 4.41 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for CPA.
Copa Holdings Risk Analysis
Copa Holdings disclosed 50 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Copa Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Copa Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $4.19B | 10.45 | 15.02% | ― | 9.10% | 1.55% | |
76 Outperform | $5.53B | 8.93 | 22.40% | 4.87% | 14.80% | -1.39% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
61 Neutral | $1.59B | -3.96 | -120.34% | ― | 9.95% | -1057.36% | |
50 Neutral | $2.42B | 62.09 | 3.28% | ― | 12.24% | ― | |
50 Neutral | $2.19B | -2.40 | -45.51% | ― | 3.99% | -119.13% | |
46 Neutral | $5.40B | -29.98 | -4.50% | ― | 9.79% | -161.50% |
* Industrials Sector Average
CPA
Copa Holdings
135.86
22.46
19.80%
ALK
Alaska Air
47.37
-10.38
-17.97%
ALGT
Allegiant Travel Company
84.44
23.13
37.73%
JBLU
JetBlue Airways
5.78
0.66
12.89%
SKYW
SkyWest
107.23
-11.38
-9.59%
ULCC
Frontier Group Holdings
6.70
2.08
45.02%
Copa Holdings Corporate Events
Copa Holdings Posts Solid 2Q26 Results and Advances Network, Wi-Fi Upgrades
Aug 7, 2026
On August 5, 2026, Copa Holdings reported second-quarter 2026 results showing operating profit of US$91.7 million and net profit of US$68.2 million, as higher jet fuel prices cut margins despite a 25.7% rise in operating revenue and solid demand m...
Copa Holdings Posts Double-Digit Traffic Growth in July 2026
Aug 5, 2026
In a filing dated August 4, 2026, Copa Holdings reported preliminary traffic results for July 2026 showing robust year-on-year growth. The airline expanded capacity, measured in available seat miles, by 16.2% compared with July 2025, while revenue...
Copa Holdings Sets August Dates for Q2 2026 Earnings Release and Call
Jul 8, 2026
Copa Holdings announced on July 8, 2026, that it will release its second-quarter 2026 financial results after the U.S. market close on August 5, 2026. The earnings release will be posted on the company’s investor relations website, giving sh...
Copa Holdings Reports Double-Digit Traffic Growth and Higher Load Factor in May 2026
Jun 12, 2026
On June 11, 2026, Copa Holdings reported preliminary traffic figures showing robust growth in May 2026 versus May 2025, underscoring continued expansion in its airline operations. The company’s capacity, measured in available seat miles, ros...
Copa Holdings Delivers Strong Q1 2026 Results and Expands Boeing 737 MAX Fleet Plan
May 14, 2026
On May 13, 2026, Copa Holdings reported first‑quarter 2026 results showing net profit of US$212.5 million, or US$5.16 per share, with operating and net margins rising to 24.6% and 20.2% despite higher jet fuel prices. Revenue grew 17% to US$...
Copa Holdings Grows April Traffic 16.7% With Load Factor Holding Steady
May 13, 2026
On May 12, 2026, Copa Holdings reported its preliminary operating metrics for April 2026, showing a 16.7% year-on-year increase in available seat miles to 2.97 billion and an identical 16.7% rise in revenue passenger miles to 2.58 billion. The sys...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.