Copa Holdings (CPA)
NYSE:CPA
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Copa Holdings
(NYSE:CPA)
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Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
$126.00
▲(6.85% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/13/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance and a constructive earnings outlook (high margins, solid liquidity, and favorable 2026 margin guidance), reinforced by attractive valuation (low P/E and high dividend yield). These positives are meaningfully offset by weak technicals (price below key moving averages with negative MACD) and some fundamental risks around moderating revenue growth and uneven free-cash-flow conversion.
Positive Factors
High Profitability
Sustained industry-leading margins give Copa structural resilience. High operating and net margins provide recurring cash generation to fund fleet investment, cover cyclical downturns, and sustain shareholder returns, reducing reliance on external financing over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Weakening Unit Revenues (RASM)
Declining or flat RASM amid planned double-digit capacity growth risks eroding margins if demand or yields soften. Structural pressure on unit revenue can offset cost efficiencies, making margin targets reliant on sustained demand and execution of densification and distribution savings.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High Profitability
Sustained industry-leading margins give Copa structural resilience. High operating and net margins provide recurring cash generation to fund fleet investment, cover cyclical downturns, and sustain shareholder returns, reducing reliance on external financing over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Copa Holdings (CPA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.85B
Dividend Yield5.28%
Average Volume (3M)483.28K
Price to Earnings (P/E)7.4
Beta (1Y)0.68
Revenue Growth1.36%
EPS Growth6.84%
CountryUS
Employees7,909
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAirlines, Airports & Air Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.18
Shares Outstanding30,200,428
10 Day Avg. Volume420,767
30 Day Avg. Volume483,284
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.62
Price to Book (P/B)1.79
Price to Sales (P/S)1.38
P/FCF Ratio16.15
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.45
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.95
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.09
Enterprise Value/Ebitda5.69
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$167.89Price Target Upside42.38% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)15.83
Revenue Forecast (FY)$4.08B
Copa Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Copa Holdings, S.A., through its subsidiaries, provides airline passenger and cargo services. The company offers approximately 204 daily scheduled flights to 69 destinations in 29 countries in North, Central, and South America, as well as the Cari...
How the Company Makes Money
Copa Holdings primarily makes money by selling air transportation and related services through its airline subsidiaries. The largest revenue stream is passenger revenue, generated from ticket sales across its route network; this includes fares sol...
Copa Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Copa Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 11, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a largely positive operational and financial picture: strong profitability, high operating margins, robust liquidity, fleet growth, network expansion, and recognition for on-time performance. Key positives include full-year net profit growth (+11.9% EPS), strong cash coverage (~44% of LTM revenues), low leverage (adjusted net debt/EBITDA 0.6x), and clear shareholder returns (dividend and buyback). Offsetting items include a full-year RASM decline (-2.6%), a small Q4 rise in CASM ex-fuel (1.6% including a non-cash item), a $6M FX loss, and regional/operational uncertainties (Venezuela market re-entry and Brazil legal environment). Management provided conservative RASM guidance despite robust demand signals and substantial capacity growth, with the company expecting to achieve modest cost improvements to support margins. Overall, strengths and momentum materially outweigh the noted challenges.Positive Updates
Strong Profitability and Earnings Growth
Reported Q4 net profit of $172.6M ($4.18/share), with adjusted Q4 net profit of $184.1M ($4.46/share) excluding a $7.2M non-cash maintenance adjustment and $6M foreign currency loss. Full-year 2025 net profit was $671.6M ($16.28/share), representing an 11.9% year-over-year increase in EPS. Full-year operating income reached $819M, up 8.8% year-over-year.
Negative Updates
Full-Year Unit Revenue Decline
Full-year RASM decreased 2.6% to 11.2¢ year-over-year. 2026 guidance assumes flattish unit revenues (~11¢–12¢) despite planned capacity growth of 11%–13%, posing revenue per unit risk if demand or yields soften.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Profitability and Earnings Growth
Reported Q4 net profit of $172.6M ($4.18/share), with adjusted Q4 net profit of $184.1M ($4.46/share) excluding a $7.2M non-cash maintenance adjustment and $6M foreign currency loss. Full-year 2025 net profit was $671.6M ($16.28/share), representing an 11.9% year-over-year increase in EPS. Full-year operating income reached $819M, up 8.8% year-over-year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Copa's 2026 guidance calls for ASMs to grow 11%–13% year‑over‑year (with ~50% from the full‑year impact of 2025 additions, ~40% from added frequencies and ~10% from new destinations), an operating margin of 22%–24%, an assumed load factor of ~87%, unit revenues (RASM) of ~11¢–12¢, CASM ex‑fuel of ~5.7¢ (toward a 5.6¢ target by 2028) and an all‑in fuel price of $2.50/gal; management also expects to add eight Boeing 737 MAX‑8s in 2026 to end the year with ~133 aircraft, will pay a quarterly dividend of $1.71/share (subject to board ratification), and reiterated its strong liquidity and balance‑sheet position (cash & investments $1.6B, ≈44% of LTM revenues; ~$500M in pre‑delivery deposits; 47 unencumbered aircraft; total debt $2.3B; adjusted net debt/EBITDA ~0.6x).Copa Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
68
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 3.62B | 3.45B | 3.46B | 2.97B | 1.51B |
| Gross Profit | 1.15B | 1.10B | 1.16B | 800.27M | 363.82M |
| EBITDA | 1.24B | 1.12B | 1.08B | 741.68M | 370.51M |
| Net Income | 671.65M | 608.11M | 514.10M | 348.05M | 43.84M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 6.58B | 5.74B | 5.20B | 4.69B | 4.25B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.34B | 1.20B | 915.18M | 934.75M | 1.02B |
| Total Debt | 2.56B | 2.00B | 1.75B | 1.68B | 1.60B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.81B | 3.37B | 3.07B | 3.20B | 2.95B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.78B | 2.37B | 2.12B | 1.49B | 1.30B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 308.05M | 340.51M | 214.91M | 126.31M | 23.55M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.12B | 996.85M | 1.04B | 758.54M | 507.29M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.32B | -343.14M | -543.00M | -552.15M | -459.13M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -36.06M | -219.65M | -394.03M | -273.69M | 88.54M |
Copa Holdings Technical Analysis
Negative
117.92
Price Trends
130.95
Negative
125.91
Negative
119.06
Negative
Market Momentum
-5.84
Negative
41.45
Neutral
28.36
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CPA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 117.92 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 116.47, below the 50-day MA of 130.95, and below the 200-day MA of 119.06, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -5.84 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 41.45 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 28.36 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CPA.
Copa Holdings Risk Analysis
Copa Holdings disclosed 50 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Copa Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Copa Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $4.85B | 7.41 | 25.62% | 5.28% | 1.36% | 6.84% | |
74 Outperform | $3.79B | 9.45 | 16.35% | ― | 19.27% | 78.26% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
50 Neutral | $4.32B | 58.11 | 2.47% | ― | 31.50% | -49.15% | |
48 Neutral | $1.53B | -34.43 | -4.22% | ― | 3.29% | -983.31% | |
46 Neutral | $1.68B | -2.79 | -26.05% | ― | -2.49% | 47.88% | |
45 Neutral | $861.04M | -7.87 | -27.39% | ― | 1.77% | -1964.48% |
* Industrials Sector Average
CPA
Copa Holdings
117.92
32.35
37.80%
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37.65
-13.49
-26.38%
ALGT
Allegiant Travel Company
83.12
27.67
49.90%
JBLU
JetBlue Airways
4.55
-0.49
-9.72%
SKYW
SkyWest
93.70
2.87
3.16%
ULCC
Frontier Group Holdings
3.75
-0.57
-13.19%
Copa Holdings Corporate Events
Copa Holdings Files 2025 Form 20-F with U.S. SEC
Feb 27, 2026
On February 26, 2026, Copa Holdings announced that it had filed its Form 20-F annual report for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The filing makes the company’s latest audited financia...
Copa Holdings Posts Record 2025 Profit, Lifts Dividend and Targets Double-Digit Capacity Growth for 2026
Feb 13, 2026
On February 11, 2026, Copa Holdings reported fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results showing another year of strong profitability and operational execution, with 2025 net profit reaching US$671.6 million and earnings per share up 11.9%. The carr...
Copa Holdings Posts Double-Digit January Traffic Growth and Higher Load Factor
Feb 9, 2026
On February 9, 2026, Copa Holdings reported preliminary traffic figures for January 2026 showing solid year-on-year growth in its airline operations. The company’s capacity, measured in available seat miles, rose 11.9% versus January 2025, w...
Copa Holdings Posts Double-Digit Traffic Growth and Higher Load Factor in December 2025
Jan 13, 2026
On January 13, 2026, Copa Holdings reported its preliminary operating performance for December 2025, showing solid year-on-year growth in traffic and capacity. Available seat miles rose 10.0% and revenue passenger miles increased 10.9% versus Dece...
Copa Holdings Sets February Dates for Fourth-Quarter 2025 Earnings Release and Call
Jan 8, 2026
On January 8, 2026, Panama-based Copa Holdings announced the schedule for releasing its financial results for the fourth quarter of 2025, underscoring the company’s ongoing transparency with investors and the market. The airline plans to pub...
Copa Holdings Reports Strong Traffic Growth for November 2025
Dec 16, 2025
In November 2025, Copa Holdings reported a 10.0% increase in available seat miles (ASMs) and a 10.2% rise in revenue passenger miles (RPMs) compared to November 2024. This growth resulted in a system load factor of 86.2%, slightly up by 0.1 percen...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.