Copa Holdings S.A. (CPA)
NYSE:CPA
Want to see CPA full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Copa Holdings
(NYSE:CPA)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:78Outperform
Price Target:
$146.00
▲(16.26% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/20/26
The score is driven primarily by strong profitability and an attractive valuation (low P/E and high dividend yield). Offsetting these positives are weakened free-cash-flow conversion and near-term earnings risk from sharply higher jet fuel costs reflected in Q2 margin guidance, while technicals remain constructive but not deeply oversold.
Positive Factors
High profitability and margins
Sustained high operating and net margins provide durable earnings power versus regional peers. Margins and a TTM ROE near 26% indicate efficient capital use, enabling reinvestment, shareholder distributions and resilience to cyclical downturns if demand softens over the next several months.
Negative Factors
Sharp free cash flow decline
A large drop in free cash flow reduces financial flexibility for buybacks, dividends and faster debt paydown. Even with strong operating cash flow, weaker FCF conversion increases sensitivity to rising capex, working-capital swings or prolonged lower yields over the coming months.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High profitability and margins
Sustained high operating and net margins provide durable earnings power versus regional peers. Margins and a TTM ROE near 26% indicate efficient capital use, enabling reinvestment, shareholder distributions and resilience to cyclical downturns if demand softens over the next several months.
Read all positive factors
Copa Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Copa Holdings (CPA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.51B
Dividend Yield5.28%
Average Volume (3M)467.77K
Price to Earnings (P/E)7.2
Beta (1Y)0.77
Revenue Growth5.03%
EPS Growth11.62%
CountryUS
Employees7,909
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAirlines, Airports & Air Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)17.16
Shares Outstanding30,200,428
10 Day Avg. Volume477,539
30 Day Avg. Volume467,767
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.62
Price to Book (P/B)1.79
Price to Sales (P/S)1.38
P/FCF Ratio16.15
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.38
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.02
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.19
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.39
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$165.29Price Target Upside31.62% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)15.12
Revenue Forecast (FY)$4.29B
Copa Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Copa Holdings, S.A., through its subsidiaries, provides airline passenger and cargo services. The company offers approximately 204 daily scheduled flights to 69 destinations in 29 countries in North, Central, and South America, as well as the Cari...
How the Company Makes Money
Copa Holdings primarily makes money by selling air transportation and related services through its airline subsidiaries. The largest revenue stream is passenger revenue, generated from ticket sales across its route network; this includes fares sol...
Copa Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 13, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented strong operational and financial results (record net profit, double-digit capacity/traffic growth, high load factor, improved RASM, and industry-leading operating margin) alongside a robust balance sheet and continued fleet/network expansion. However, the company faces meaningful near-term headwinds from sharply higher and volatile jet fuel prices that raise Q2 margin risk (guidance of 8%–12% vs. Q1 at 24.6%) and only partial short-term pass-through of fuel costs. Management highlighted cost discipline and confidence in recovering a substantial portion of fuel cost by year end, but acknowledged uncertainty tied to fuel curves.Positive Updates
Record Net Profit and EPS Growth
Reported record net profit of $212 million and EPS of $5.16, representing a 20.5% year-over-year increase in earnings per share; net margin was 20.2%, up 0.5 percentage points versus Q1 2025.
Negative Updates
Higher Jet Fuel Costs Impact
All-in jet fuel prices increased 7.5% year-over-year in the quarter (from $2.54 to $2.73 per gallon), driving CASM including fuel up 1.6% to 8.9¢ and causing an approximately $20 million year-over-year headwind in Q1.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Net Profit and EPS Growth
Reported record net profit of $212 million and EPS of $5.16, representing a 20.5% year-over-year increase in earnings per share; net margin was 20.2%, up 0.5 percentage points versus Q1 2025.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance: For Q2 Copa expects an operating margin of 8%–12% with ASM growth of ~16% year‑over‑year; management projects a year‑over‑year increase in all‑in jet fuel of ~80%–90% for the quarter and expects to recover roughly 50% of that impact via higher revenues (about 40% of Q2 was already booked when fuel spiked). For the full year Copa reiterates capacity growth of 11%–13% (ASMs), a load factor of ~87%, unit cost excluding fuel of ~5.7¢, and—assuming current fuel curves and sustained yield improvements—expects to recover a substantial portion of the increased fuel expense, potentially up to 100% by year‑end, with full‑year operating margin and RASM to be reviewed as H2 visibility improves.Copa Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.77B | 3.62B | 3.45B | 3.46B | 2.97B | 1.51B |
| Gross Profit | 1.23B | 1.15B | 1.10B | 1.16B | 800.27M | 363.82M |
| EBITDA | 1.20B | 1.24B | 1.12B | 1.08B | 741.68M | 370.51M |
| Net Income | 707.35M | 671.65M | 608.11M | 514.10M | 348.05M | 43.84M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 6.89B | 6.58B | 5.74B | 5.20B | 4.69B | 4.25B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.33B | 1.34B | 1.20B | 915.18M | 934.75M | 1.02B |
| Total Debt | 2.42B | 2.56B | 2.00B | 1.75B | 1.68B | 1.60B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.02B | 3.81B | 3.37B | 3.07B | 3.20B | 2.95B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.87B | 2.78B | 2.37B | 2.12B | 1.49B | 1.30B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 108.42M | 308.05M | 340.51M | 214.91M | 126.31M | 23.55M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.28B | 1.12B | 996.85M | 1.04B | 758.54M | 507.29M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.16B | -1.32B | -343.14M | -543.00M | -552.15M | -459.13M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 91.30M | -36.06M | -219.65M | -394.03M | -273.69M | 88.54M |
Copa Holdings Technical Analysis
Positive
125.58
Price Trends
117.68
Positive
126.08
Positive
121.65
Positive
Market Momentum
2.85
Negative
56.45
Neutral
78.16
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CPA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 125.58 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 119.93, above the 50-day MA of 117.68, and above the 200-day MA of 121.65, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.85 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.45 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 78.16 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CPA.
Copa Holdings Risk Analysis
Copa Holdings disclosed 50 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Copa Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Copa Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $5.51B | 7.20 | 26.01% | 5.28% | 5.03% | 11.62% | |
70 Outperform | $3.24B | 9.03 | 16.00% | ― | 12.26% | 18.57% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
54 Neutral | $2.01B | 8.68 | -3.25% | ― | 3.31% | 82.72% | |
50 Neutral | $1.06B | -0.74 | -88.57% | ― | -0.47% | -632.83% | |
45 Neutral | $1.70B | -1.28 | -33.13% | ― | -0.52% | -138.22% | |
44 Neutral | $4.16B | -5.45 | 1.85% | ― | 13.94% | -79.71% |
* Industrials Sector Average
CPA
Copa Holdings
128.17
31.45
32.51%
ALK
Alaska Air
36.21
-13.56
-27.25%
ALGT
Allegiant Travel Company
69.87
18.41
35.78%
JBLU
JetBlue Airways
4.38
-0.47
-9.69%
SKYW
SkyWest
78.40
-19.94
-20.28%
ULCC
Frontier Group Holdings
4.25
0.52
13.94%
Copa Holdings Corporate Events
Copa Holdings Delivers Strong Q1 2026 Results and Expands Boeing 737 MAX Fleet Plan
May 14, 2026
On May 13, 2026, Copa Holdings reported first‑quarter 2026 results showing net profit of US$212.5 million, or US$5.16 per share, with operating and net margins rising to 24.6% and 20.2% despite higher jet fuel prices. Revenue grew 17% to US$...
Copa Holdings Grows April Traffic 16.7% With Load Factor Holding Steady
May 13, 2026
On May 12, 2026, Copa Holdings reported its preliminary operating metrics for April 2026, showing a 16.7% year-on-year increase in available seat miles to 2.97 billion and an identical 16.7% rise in revenue passenger miles to 2.58 billion. The sys...
Copa Holdings Sets Mid-May Dates for First-Quarter 2026 Earnings Release and Call
Apr 14, 2026
Copa Holdings said on April 14, 2026, that it will release its first-quarter 2026 financial results on May 13, 2026, after the U.S. market close. The airline will follow with an earnings conference call and webcast on May 14, 2026, giving investor...
Copa Holdings Posts Double-Digit Traffic Growth and Higher Load Factor in March 2026
Apr 13, 2026
On April 13, 2026, Copa Holdings reported its preliminary traffic figures for March 2026, showing a solid year-on-year expansion in its airline operations. The company’s performance metrics indicate growing demand across its network in the A...
Copa Holdings Sets May 13, 2026 Annual Shareholder Meeting to Elect Board
Mar 24, 2026
Copa Holdings has called its 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders for May 13, 2026, at Copa Airlines’ headquarters in Panama City, where Class A shareholders will vote on ratifying the election of Julianne Canavaggio as an independent directo...
Copa Holdings Posts Double-Digit Traffic Growth and Higher Load Factor in February 2026
Mar 16, 2026
On March 16, 2026, Copa Holdings reported its preliminary passenger traffic statistics for February 2026, showing a solid year-on-year expansion in operations. The airline’s available seat miles rose 15.6% to 2,761.8 million, and revenue pas...
Copa Holdings Files 2025 Form 20-F with U.S. SEC
Feb 27, 2026
On February 26, 2026, Copa Holdings announced that it had filed its Form 20-F annual report for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The filing makes the company’s latest audited financia...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.