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Americold Realty (COLD)
NYSE:COLD
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Americold Realty
(NYSE:COLD)
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Rating:53Neutral
Price Target:
$13.50
â–²(0.67% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:01/27/26
The score is held back primarily by weakened financial performance (sharp TTM revenue decline, ongoing losses, higher leverage, and negative free cash flow). Offsetting factors include improving/neutral technical momentum, a high dividend yield, and a mixed-but-stable earnings outlook with some supportive governance and refinancing actions.
Positive Factors
Essential market position
Americold’s global cold‑chain footprint across North America, Europe and Australia anchors essential food logistics services that are structurally required by the food supply chain. This creates durable demand, high switching costs and long customer relationships that support steady cash flows over time.
High fixed-commitment revenue
With roughly 60% of rent and storage revenue under fixed commitments, a large portion of Americold’s top line is predictable. That contractual revenue mix supports AFFO stability, aids debt servicing and dividend coverage, and reduces volatility from short‑term volume swings in perishable goods demand.
Proven development execution
A ~$1bn development pipeline combined with a track record of delivering projects on time and under budget signals disciplined capital allocation. Successful project execution can expand capacity in higher‑return markets, realize economies of scale, and drive long‑term NOI and value creation.
Negative Factors
Sharp revenue decline
A ~40% TTM revenue decline materially reduces scale and operating leverage, pressuring margins and profitability. Sustained top‑line weakness erodes cash generation capacity, limits reinvestment ability, and heightens risk to AFFO and dividend sustainability absent a credible recovery in volumes or pricing.
Rising leverage and weaker balance sheet flexibility
Higher debt‑to‑equity (~1.41) and reduced equity cushion constrain financial flexibility, increasing interest and refinancing risk. Combined with ongoing losses and negative ROE, elevated leverage limits capacity to invest, execute opportunistic M&A or quickly de‑risk the balance sheet during prolonged market weakness.
Industry excess capacity and pricing pressure
Significant incremental capacity in North America and anticipated 100–200bps pricing headwinds imply prolonged revenue per‑sqft pressure and lower renewal rates. These structural supply/demand imbalances can compress margins, reduce asset returns, and extend the timeline to restore occupancy and pricing power.
Americold Realty (COLD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.42B
Dividend Yield7.21%
Average Volume (3M)4.69M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.42
Revenue Growth-2.60%
EPS Growth78.16%
CountryUS
Employees13,755
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Industrial
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.31
Shares Outstanding284,854,500
10 Day Avg. Volume5,823,897
30 Day Avg. Volume4,690,122
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.51
Price to Book (P/B)1.27
Price to Sales (P/S)1.41
P/FCF Ratio0.00
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.39
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.14
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit78.17
Enterprise Value/Ebitda21.56
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$13.11Price Target Upside-2.24% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Americold Realty Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionAmericold is the world's largest publicly traded REIT focused on the ownership, operation, acquisition and development of temperature-controlled warehouses. Based in Atlanta, Georgia, Americold owns and operates 185 temperature-controlled warehouses, with over 1 billion refrigerated cubic feet of storage, in the United States, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, and Argentina. Americold's facilities are an integral component of the supply chain connecting food producers, processors, distributors and retailers to consumers.
How the Company Makes MoneyAmericold generates revenue primarily through leasing its temperature-controlled warehouse space to food producers, distributors, and retailers. The company's revenue model is built around long-term contracts with customers, which provides a stable income stream. Key revenue streams include rental income from warehouse space, fees for additional services such as transportation and inventory management, and value-added services tailored to meet specific customer needs. Partnerships with major food and beverage companies enhance its market position and contribute to steady demand for its services. Additionally, Americold may benefit from economies of scale and operational efficiencies as it expands its facility portfolio and optimizes its logistics operations.
Americold Realty Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 19, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presents a cautiously constructive view: the company reported sequential and year-over-year operational improvements (Q4 AFFO beat, NOI/EBITDA/AFFO increases, improved services margin and occupancy momentum) and has materially progressed cost-savings, portfolio optimization, new-business wins, and financing actions. However, significant near-term headwinds remain — including elevated leverage (6.8x), industry overcapacity (notably in U.S. forward-distribution and ports), expected revenue/occupancy pressure in 2026, a material renewal cadence with customers paring back commitments, and guidance that implies a year-over-year AFFO decline. Management has clear priorities and actionable plans (deleveraging, portfolio review, cost reductions, disciplined development), but benefits will take time to realize. Overall, highlights (operational improvement, margin gains, contract stability, cost cuts, and portfolio/financing actions) are notable and actionable, but are balanced by meaningful macro and industry pressures that temper the near-term outlook.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Quarterly and Full-Year AFFO
Q4 2025 AFFO per share of $0.38 (slightly ahead of expectations); full-year 2025 AFFO of $1.43 per share (in line with expectations).
Positive QoQ and YoY Operating Momentum
Q4 delivered year-over-year increases in NOI, core EBITDA, and AFFO dollars — the first YoY quarterly increases since 2024; economic occupancy improved sequentially by 280 basis points in Q4.
Services Margin Expansion
Fourth-quarter services margin nearly 14%; full-year services margin 12.7%, up ~1,000 basis points versus two years ago, reflecting labor initiatives and operational improvements.
Revenue Per Pallet Trends
Services revenue per pallet up 2.4% in the quarter; storage revenue per pallet increased 0.3% in the quarter despite competitive pressures.
Fixed Commitment Contract Mix
Approximately 60% of rent and storage revenues now come from fixed commitment contracts, up from under 40% a few years ago, improving revenue stability and multi-year cash flow visibility.
Cost Savings Initiatives
Identified and largely executed $30 million of annualized savings in indirect warehouse labor and SG&A; expecting to reduce Project Orion and transformation-related cash spend by ~$50 million in 2026.
Portfolio Management Actions
Exited the Brazil JV and strategically exited or idled ~10 North American sites in 2025, removing >22 million cubic feet (~65,000 pallet positions); identified nine additional candidate sites for 2026 with two already closed in Q1.
Deleveraging Progress and Capital Activity
Leverage at 6.8x at Q4-end; entered a $250M term loan in December (proceeds used to reduce revolver and add cash) and repaid a $200M Series A maturity in January — management pursuing transactions (JV or asset sales) to meaningfully reduce leverage toward ~6x or below.
New Business Wins and Development Execution
Won On the Run convenience-store business in Australia (supporting ~600 locations) and expanded retail presence into Europe (Portugal and The Netherlands); three 2025 expansions completed on time and on budget; four in-process developments (Fort St. John, DFW, Christchurch, Sydney) remain on time and on budget.
2026 Financial Guide and Key Line Items
Provided full-year 2026 guidance: AFFO $1.20–$1.30 per share (midpoint $1.25), same-store revenue ~$2.2–$2.27 billion, same-store NOI $735–$785 million, total company NOI $780–$845 million, core SG&A $218–$228 million (midpoint ~7M lower vs prior), core EBITDA $570–$620 million, interest expense $171–$180 million, maintenance CapEx $60–$70 million.
Negative Updates
Guidance Indicates Decline in AFFO
2026 AFFO guidance of $1.20–$1.30 implies a decline versus 2025 AFFO $1.43; the midpoint decline is ~12.6% (range: -9.1% to -16.1%), signaling near-term earnings pressure.
Revenue and Occupancy Headwinds
Management expects ongoing revenue pressure in 2026: revenue per pallet expected to be down ~100–200 basis points and economic occupancy forecasted to be flat to down up to 300 basis points, driven by tight customer inventories and cautious demand.
High Leverage
Net leverage at the end of Q4 was 6.8x, prompting active deleveraging initiatives; management targeting meaningful reduction to ~6x or below to preserve investment-grade status.
Industry Oversupply Concerns
Company cited significant incremental supply in recent years (management referenced ~15% incremental capacity added measured in pallet positions), concentrated in U.S. forward-distribution and port nodes, pressuring pricing and occupancy.
Customer Contract Renegotiation Risk
A meaningful renewal cadence in 2026 with ~30% of fixed contract pool expiring; customers often renewing at lower committed volumes (example: 20k → 17k or 15k pallets), tightening gap between physical and economic occupancy.
Modest Storage Pricing Improvement
Storage revenue per pallet rose only 0.3% in the quarter, indicating pricing remains under competitive pressure despite stronger services pricing.
Asset Underperformance and Network Optimization Needed
Exited/ idled ~10 assets in 2025 and identified nine more targets for 2026 (two closed Q1), reflecting pockets of underperforming capacity and the need for continued consolidation that can be disruptive and reduce short-term revenue.
Throughput and Volume Trends
Throughput decreased slightly sequentially after Q3 inventory inflows; customers continue to manage inventory tightly, limiting volume-driven upside in the near term.
Non-Same-Store Contribution Is Limited Near-Term
Non-same-store NOI contribution is modest (management outlined roughly $20–$22 million at the midpoint), pointing to limited near-term growth from development/M&A ramp in 2026.
Interest and Financing Costs
Guided interest expense of $171–$180 million for 2026; high financing costs exacerbate pressure on earnings while deleveraging actions remain in progress.
Company Guidance
Americold guided full‑year 2026 AFFO of $1.20–$1.30 per share (Q4 2025 AFFO was $0.38; FY2025 AFFO $1.43), noting Q1 is expected to be the low quarter with sequential improvement and that the outlook excludes any unannounced transactions or consumer demand inflection. They expect same‑store revenue of ~$2.20–$2.27 billion, same‑store NOI of $735–$785 million and total company NOI of $780–$845 million, with core EBITDA $570–$620 million, core SG&A $218–$228 million, interest expense $171–$180 million, maintenance CapEx $60–$70 million, transportation NOI roughly $31 million and non‑same‑store NOI ~ $20–$22 million at the midpoint. Guidance assumes revenue per pallet down ~100–200 bps and economic occupancy flat to down up to 300 bps (Q4 economic occupancy rose 280 bps sequentially); Q4 services margin was nearly 14% (FY 12.7%, up ~1,000 bps over two years), services revenue per pallet +2.4% and storage revenue per pallet +0.3% in Q4. Capital and balance‑sheet actions include a December $250 million term loan ($150M to pay revolver, $100M to cash), subsequent $200M Series A repayment, year‑end leverage of 6.8x with a target to move materially lower toward ~6x or below via JV or asset sales, $30M of annualized cost savings largely completed, Project Orion cash spend reduced by ~$50M, and portfolio actions (10 sites exited/idled in 2025 removing >22M cubic feet / >65,000 pallet positions; nine sites identified for 2026; same‑store pool recast to 215 from 219).Americold Realty Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Financial health is pressured: TTM revenue declined sharply (~-40%), net margin remains negative (~-2.4%), leverage increased (debt-to-equity ~1.41), and free cash flow swung to negative (~-$148M). Offsetting factors include steady gross margin (~32%), improved EBITDA margin vs 2024, and solid operating cash flow (~$392M).Income Statement
TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue declined sharply (about -40%), signaling meaningful top-line pressure. Profitability is mixed: gross margin remains steady around ~32% (similar to 2024), and EBITDA margin improved versus 2024, but the company is still loss-making with a negative net margin (~-2.4%) and modest EBIT margin (~2.8%). Multi-year trend shows volatile results with recurring net losses since 2021, despite a major recovery from the 2023 trough.46
Neutral
Balance Sheet
Leverage has increased: debt-to-equity rose to ~1.41 in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) from ~1.12 in 2024, alongside lower equity, reducing balance-sheet flexibility. Returns on equity remain negative (TTM ROE ~-2.0%), reflecting ongoing losses. Asset base is sizable, but the higher debt load and persistent negative profitability elevate financial risk.44
Neutral
Cash Flow
Operating cash flow is solid in absolute terms (TTM about $392M) and has been relatively steady across years, supporting baseline liquidity. However, free cash flow turned negative in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) (about -$148M) after being positive in 2024, indicating heavier capital spending and/or weaker cash conversion. Cash generation is a partial offset to accounting losses, but negative free cash flow reduces room for debt reduction and shareholder returns.52
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 2.60B | 2.67B | 2.67B | 2.91B | 2.71B |
| Gross Profit | 104.66M | 846.73M | 770.57M | 695.96M | 629.78M |
| EBITDA | 379.40M | 392.96M | 165.76M | 417.64M | 388.42M |
| Net Income | -114.55M | -94.31M | -336.21M | -19.44M | -30.45M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 8.12B | 7.74B | 7.87B | 8.10B | 8.22B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 136.86M | 47.65M | 60.39M | 53.06M | 82.96M |
| Total Debt | 4.50B | 3.68B | 3.49B | 3.58B | 3.42B |
| Total Liabilities | 5.20B | 4.43B | 4.23B | 4.32B | 4.19B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.88B | 3.28B | 3.62B | 3.77B | 4.02B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 0.00 | 102.42M | 35.92M | -22.95M | -218.77M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 0.00 | 411.88M | 366.15M | 300.00M | 273.06M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -313.18M | -357.07M | -348.49M | -1.24B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -106.78M | -285.00K | 23.32M | 431.49M |
Americold Realty Technical Analysis
Positive
13.41
Price Trends
12.78
Positive
12.48
Positive
13.96
Negative
Market Momentum
0.05
Negative
57.54
Neutral
55.71
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For COLD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 13.41 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.70, above the 50-day MA of 12.78, and below the 200-day MA of 13.96, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.05 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.54 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 55.71 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for COLD.
Americold Realty Risk Analysis
Americold Realty disclosed 55 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Americold Realty reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Americold Realty Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $32.17B | 32.47 | 7.10% | 5.01% | 3.38% | 17.16% | |
74 Outperform | $132.83B | 39.25 | 6.21% | 3.16% | 10.75% | 4.29% | |
71 Outperform | $52.48B | 33.17 | 18.82% | 4.63% | 2.30% | -0.22% | |
69 Neutral | $8.86B | 24.82 | 12.82% | 5.69% | 4.19% | -12.19% | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
54 Neutral | $8.36B | -49.70 | -2.06% | 6.18% | 0.44% | 75.40% | |
53 Neutral | $3.42B | -63.45 | -3.72% | 7.21% | -2.60% | 78.16% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
COLD
Americold Realty
13.41
-7.99
-37.34%
CUBE
Cubesmart
40.30
0.31
0.79%
EXR
Extra Space Storage
152.75
0.76
0.50%
PLD
Prologis
141.51
24.93
21.39%
PSA
Public Storage
305.00
13.91
4.78%
LINE
Lineage, Inc.
38.30
-13.88
-26.60%
Americold Realty Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesFinancial Disclosures
Americold Realty Announces CFO Transition and Leadership Changes
Positive
Jan 26, 2026
On January 26, 2026, Americold Realty Trust announced a chief financial officer transition, appointing veteran real estate finance executive Christopher Papa as executive vice president and CFO effective February 23, 2026, with a compensation package that includes a $650,000 base salary, performance-linked annual incentives and significant equity grants. The board also named current chief investment officer Scott Henderson as interim CFO from January 26, 2026, until Papa joins, while confirming that outgoing CFO Jay Wells had departed the company that day on terms consistent with an involuntary termination without cause; in parallel, chief legal officer Nathan Harwell assumed the expanded role of chief legal and people officer, consolidating oversight of legal, compliance and human resources. Alongside these leadership changes, Americold reaffirmed its full-year 2025 AFFO per share guidance and indicated it expects fourth-quarter 2025 AFFO per share between $0.36 and $0.38, signaling management’s confidence in its financial outlook as it executes its 2026 strategic plan and seeks to bolster balance sheet strength, capital allocation discipline and long-term value creation for shareholders.
The most recent analyst rating on (COLD) stock is a Hold with a $11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Americold Realty stock, see the COLD Stock Forecast page.
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Americold Realty Adds New Term Loan to Refinance Debt
Positive
Dec 22, 2025
On December 19, 2025, Americold Realty Trust, Inc. and its operating partnership amended their existing credit agreement to add a new $250 million unsecured delayed draw term loan facility. The company plans to use most of this 2025 Delayed Draw Facility to repay approximately $200 million of 4.68% senior unsecured notes maturing on January 8, 2026, with the remainder available for general corporate purposes, a move that refines its debt profile and provides additional financial flexibility for ongoing operations.
The most recent analyst rating on (COLD) stock is a Hold with a $13.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Americold Realty stock, see the COLD Stock Forecast page.
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Americold Realty, Ancora pact to enhance governance
Positive
Dec 22, 2025
On December 22, 2025, Americold Realty Trust entered into a cooperation agreement with shareholder Ancora and appointed Joseph Reece and Stephen Sleigh as independent directors to its board, expanding the board from nine to 11 members and committing to nominate them at the 2026 annual meeting. As part of the agreement, Americold created a five-member Finance Committee, chaired by director David Neithercut with Reece as vice chair, to review the company’s portfolio, evaluate potential asset sales including possible international divestitures, and make recommendations on capital allocation, debt reduction, dividend maintenance and preservation of core assets, while Ancora agreed to standstill and voting commitments through the defined standstill period, signaling a collaborative approach to governance and an intensified focus on profitability, portfolio optimization and shareholder value.
The most recent analyst rating on (COLD) stock is a Buy with a $14.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Americold Realty stock, see the COLD Stock Forecast page.
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Americold Realty Reaffirms 2025 Financial Outlook
Neutral
Dec 9, 2025
On December 9, 2025, Americold Realty Trust, Inc. reaffirmed its 2025 full-year financial outlook during an investor presentation, aligning with its third-quarter earnings release. The company emphasized its strategic focus on growth through infrastructure, expertise, and partnerships, while addressing various risks and uncertainties that could impact its operations and market positioning.
The most recent analyst rating on (COLD) stock is a Hold with a $11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Americold Realty stock, see the COLD Stock Forecast page.
Financial Disclosures
Americold Realty Reports Q3 2025 Financial Results
Negative
Nov 6, 2025
Americold Realty Trust announced its third-quarter 2025 financial results, reporting a total revenue of $663.7 million, a 1.6% decrease from the previous year, primarily due to lower volumes in the warehouse segment. Despite industry challenges, the company maintained its Adjusted FFO per share at $0.35, consistent with the previous year, and reiterated its full-year outlook for 2025. The company experienced a net loss of $11.4 million, attributed to decreased NOI in the warehouse segment and increased expenses, including those related to Project Orion.
The most recent analyst rating on (COLD) stock is a Hold with a $13.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Americold Realty stock, see the COLD Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.