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Core & Main (CNM)
NYSE:CNM
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Core & Main (CNM) AI Stock Analysis

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CNM

Core & Main

(NYSE:CNM)

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Outperform 71 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
$61.00
▲(10.71% Upside)
Core & Main's strong financial performance and strategic initiatives are the primary drivers of its stock score. However, technical indicators suggest caution due to overbought conditions, and valuation metrics indicate potential overvaluation. The company's confidence in its growth prospects, as reflected in its earnings call, supports a positive outlook despite market challenges.
Positive Factors
Strong Revenue Growth
The company's robust revenue growth indicates effective market penetration and product demand, supporting long-term business sustainability.
Municipal Market Strength
Strong performance in municipal projects, backed by state funding, ensures stable revenue streams and growth opportunities.
Strategic Growth Initiatives
Successful product diversification and geographic expansion enhance market position and drive sustainable growth.
Negative Factors
Reliance on Debt
Dependence on debt can increase financial risk, especially in volatile markets, potentially impacting long-term financial health.
Residential Market Softness
Weakness in the residential market may limit growth prospects and affect revenue diversification.
SG&A Expense Increase
Rising SG&A expenses due to inflation and strategic investments could pressure margins and reduce profitability.

Core & Main (CNM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Core & Main Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCore & Main, Inc. distributes water, wastewater, storm drainage, and fire protection products and related services to municipalities, private water companies, and professional contractors in the municipal, non-residential, and residential end markets in the United States. Its products include pipes, valves, hydrants, fittings, and other products and services; storm drainage products, such as corrugated piping systems, retention basins, inline drains, manholes, grates, geosynthetics, and other related products; fire protection products, including fire protection pipes, sprinkler heads and other devices, fire suppression systems, and related accessories, as well as fabrication services; and meter products, such as smart meter products, installation, software and other services. The company's specialty products and services are used in the maintenance, repair, replacement, and construction of water and fire protection infrastructure. Core & Main, Inc. was founded in 1874 and is headquartered in St. Louis, Missouri.
How the Company Makes MoneyCore & Main generates revenue through the sale of its extensive product offerings to contractors, municipalities, and utilities. The company primarily earns money by distributing essential materials used in the construction and maintenance of water and sewer systems. Key revenue streams include direct sales of products, as well as service contracts that provide inventory management and logistical support to clients. Additionally, Core & Main may benefit from partnerships with manufacturers and suppliers, allowing for a diverse product range and competitive pricing strategies that enhance its market position and profitability.

Core & Main Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Dec 09, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 24, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reveals a mixed sentiment with positive aspects such as net sales growth, gross margin improvement, and strategic investments being balanced by challenges like softness in the residential market, declining PVC pipe prices, and increased SG&A expenses due to inflation.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Net Sales Growth
Net sales increased by 1% to $2.1 billion, with acquisitions contributing approximately 1 point of growth.
Gross Margin Improvement
Gross margin improved by 60 basis points year-over-year to 27.2%, driven by private label initiatives and disciplined purchasing and pricing execution.
Strong Cash Flow Generation
Operating cash flow was $271 million, highlighting nearly 100% conversion from adjusted EBITDA.
Share Repurchase Authorization Increase
The company announced a $500 million increase to its share repurchase authorization, reflecting confidence in growth outlook and free cash flow generation.
Municipal Market Strength
Municipal projects remain strong, supported by favorable funding environments, with significant state-level funding like Texas authorizing $20 billion for new water supply projects.
Successful Growth Initiatives
Product initiatives like fusible HDPE, treatment plant solutions, and geosynthetics each achieved double-digit growth in the quarter.
Expansion into Canadian Market
Completed the acquisition of Canada Waterworks, expanding into a $5 billion Canadian market.
Negative Updates
Residential Market Softness
Residential lot development softened, particularly in Sun Belt markets like Florida, Texas, Arizona, and Georgia.
Decline in Municipal PVC Pipe Prices
Municipal PVC pipe prices are down roughly 15% year-over-year and nearly 40% from the 2022 peak.
SG&A Expense Increase
Total SG&A expenses increased 8% to $295 million, driven by acquisitions, elevated inflation, higher employee benefits costs, and strategic investments.
Inflationary Pressures
Cost inflation is trending closer to mid-single digits this year, particularly in facilities, fleet, and medical costs.
Company Guidance
During the Core & Main Q3 2025 Earnings Call, the company provided guidance underscoring its strategic focus and market dynamics. Core & Main reported a 1% increase in net sales to $2.1 billion, driven by acquisitions and strong performance across sales initiatives, despite a decline in residential lot development. Municipal projects, which account for over 40% of sales, showcased robust growth amid a favorable funding environment, with state and local sources providing 95% of project funding. Data centers emerged as a growth driver within the nonresidential sector, contributing to a diversified project mix. The company highlighted its strategic initiatives, including geographic expansion and product diversification in areas like smart meters and fusible HDPE, resulting in gross margin expansion by 60 basis points to 27.2%. Additionally, Core & Main announced a $500 million increase to its share repurchase authorization, reflecting confidence in its growth prospects and cash flow generation. The company reaffirmed its full-year guidance with expectations of net sales between $7.6 billion and $7.7 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $920 million to $940 million, and operating cash flow of $550 million to $610 million.

Core & Main Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Core & Main exhibits strong financial health with robust revenue growth and profitability. The company effectively manages its leverage, although reliance on debt remains a concern. Cash flow generation is solid, but historical volatility suggests a need for cautious cash management.
Income Statement
Core & Main has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a 31% increase in TTM, supported by solid gross and net profit margins. The company maintains a healthy EBIT and EBITDA margin, indicating efficient operations and profitability. However, the slight decline in EBIT margin over the years suggests potential cost pressures.
Balance Sheet
The company's balance sheet shows a moderate debt-to-equity ratio, which has improved over time, indicating better financial leverage management. The return on equity remains robust, reflecting effective use of equity capital. However, the equity ratio suggests a reliance on debt financing, which could pose risks in volatile markets.
Cash Flow
Core & Main's cash flow performance is strong, with significant free cash flow growth in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio indicates good cash conversion efficiency. However, fluctuations in free cash flow growth in previous years highlight potential volatility in cash generation.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue7.76B7.44B6.70B6.65B5.00B3.64B
Gross Profit2.08B1.98B1.82B1.79B1.28B878.00M
EBITDA922.00M913.00M894.00M924.00M524.00M338.00M
Net Income435.00M411.00M371.00M366.00M166.00M37.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets6.30B5.87B5.07B4.91B4.43B3.92B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments89.00M8.00M1.00M177.00M1.00M380.90M
Total Debt2.43B2.51B2.07B1.63B1.62B2.39B
Total Liabilities4.25B4.10B3.54B2.50B2.60B3.12B
Stockholders Equity1.98B1.70B1.45B1.75B1.32B801.00M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow575.00M586.00M1.03B376.00M-51.00M202.00M
Operating Cash Flow617.00M621.00M1.07B401.00M-31.00M214.00M
Investing Cash Flow-102.00M-788.00M-270.00M-152.00M-203.00M-228.90M
Financing Cash Flow-436.00M174.00M-975.00M-73.00M-146.00M215.00M

Core & Main Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price55.10
Price Trends
50DMA
51.26
Positive
100DMA
53.41
Positive
200DMA
54.97
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.86
Positive
RSI
57.47
Neutral
STOCH
68.27
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CNM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 55.1 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 54.33, above the 50-day MA of 51.26, and above the 200-day MA of 54.97, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.86 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 57.47 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 68.27 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CNM.

Core & Main Risk Analysis

Core & Main disclosed 47 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Core & Main reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Core & Main Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
75
Outperform
$12.80B20.9913.06%0.72%5.28%1.97%
74
Outperform
$9.84B25.4522.10%0.70%4.03%5.93%
73
Outperform
$47.77B28.8448.98%0.86%4.83%-3.60%
71
Outperform
$10.41B24.1923.85%8.09%6.33%
65
Neutral
$43.39B23.1932.90%1.35%4.92%18.72%
63
Neutral
$10.79B15.437.44%2.01%2.89%-14.66%
62
Neutral
$4.52B22.9314.84%3.96%-1.35%-22.24%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
CNM
Core & Main
55.10
4.54
8.98%
AIT
Applied Industrial Technologies
264.62
17.51
7.08%
MSM
MSC Industrial
83.92
7.29
9.51%
GWW
WW Grainger
1,033.33
-9.81
-0.94%
WCC
Wesco International
267.53
91.09
51.63%
FERG
Ferguson PLC
229.42
62.47
37.42%

Core & Main Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
Core & Main Expands Share Repurchase Program by $500M
Positive
Dec 9, 2025

On December 9, 2025, Core & Main announced a $500 million increase to its share repurchase program, raising the total authorization to $1 billion. As of December 8, 2025, the company had repurchased $316 million in shares, leaving $684 million available for future buybacks. The company also reported its fiscal 2025 third-quarter results, showing a 1.2% increase in net sales to $2,062 million, driven by acquisitions and strong sales initiatives. Despite challenges in residential demand, Core & Main achieved growth in several product categories and expanded geographically by opening new locations in Houston, Texas, and Denver, Colorado. The company continues to focus on strategic priorities, including cost savings and geographic expansion, to maintain its industry-leading position and create long-term shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (CNM) stock is a Buy with a $55.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Core & Main stock, see the CNM Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Dec 11, 2025