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Core & Main (CNM)
NYSE:CNM
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Core & Main (CNM) AI Stock Analysis

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CNM

Core & Main

(NYSE:CNM)

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Neutral 64 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$50.00
▲(4.19% Upside)
Core & Main's overall stock score is influenced by strong financial performance and strategic growth initiatives. However, bearish technical indicators and revised downward guidance from the earnings call present challenges. The valuation is fair, but the lack of a dividend yield may deter some investors.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Consistent revenue growth indicates strong demand and effective market strategies, supporting long-term business expansion and stability.
Market Expansion
The expansion into Canada enhances Core & Main's market reach and diversifies revenue streams, providing a foundation for sustained growth.
Gross Margin Improvement
Improved gross margins reflect effective cost management and pricing strategies, contributing to long-term profitability and competitive advantage.
Negative Factors
Residential Market Decline
A decline in the residential market impacts a significant revenue segment, potentially affecting future sales and growth prospects.
Elevated Operating Costs
Increased operating costs can pressure margins and reduce profitability, challenging the company's ability to maintain cost efficiency.
Revised Downward Guidance
Lowered financial guidance signals potential challenges in achieving growth targets, impacting investor confidence and strategic planning.

Core & Main (CNM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Core & Main Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCore & Main (CNM) is a leading distributor of water, sewer, storm drainage, and fire protection products in the United States. The company serves a diverse range of customers, including contractors, municipalities, and utilities, providing them with essential infrastructure solutions. Core & Main operates through various sectors, focusing on the sale of pipes, fittings, valves, hydrants, and other related products, as well as offering innovative solutions and services to enhance the efficiency and effectiveness of water and wastewater systems.
How the Company Makes MoneyCore & Main generates revenue primarily through the distribution of its core products, including waterworks and plumbing supplies. The company's revenue model is centered on a combination of product sales, value-added services, and rental solutions. Key revenue streams include direct sales to contractors and municipalities, which account for a significant portion of its income. Additionally, Core & Main benefits from strategic partnerships with leading manufacturers, allowing it to offer a wide range of quality products and stay competitive in pricing. The company also leverages its extensive distribution network and logistics capabilities to enhance efficiency and manage costs, contributing to its overall profitability.

Core & Main Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Sep 09, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Dec 09, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mixed outlook with significant net sales growth, market share gains, and strategic expansion into Canada. However, these positives were offset by challenges such as a decline in the residential market, elevated operating costs, and a downward revision in financial guidance for fiscal 2025.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Net Sales Growth
Core & Main reported nearly 7% net sales growth in Q2 2025, with approximately 5% organic growth. The municipal demand remained healthy, supported by infrastructure projects.
Market Share Gains
Significant sales growth and market share gains were reported in treatment plant and fusible HDPE projects, driven by technical expertise and execution.
Gross Margin Improvement
Gross margin came in at 26.8%, up 10 basis points from Q1 and 40 basis points year over year, driven by private label and sourcing initiatives.
Positive Cash Flow and Share Repurchase
Generated $34 million in operating cash flow and repurchased $47 million of shares, reducing share count by nearly 1 million.
Canadian Expansion
Announced the acquisition of Canada Waterworks, expanding presence in the multi-billion dollar Canadian market.
Strong Adjusted EPS Growth
Adjusted diluted earnings per share increased approximately 13% to $0.87 compared to $0.77 in the prior year.
Negative Updates
Residential Market Decline
Lot development for single-family housing, which accounts for roughly 20% of sales, slowed during the quarter, especially in fast-growing Sunbelt markets, due to higher interest rates and lower consumer confidence.
Elevated Operating Costs
Operating costs were elevated due to high employee benefit costs, inflation, and higher costs from recent acquisitions, leading to lower than expected operating margins.
Revised Downward Guidance
Guidance for fiscal 2025 was lowered due to higher operating costs and softer residential demand, with expected net sales of $7.6 to $7.7 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $920 to $940 million.
Decline in Meter Product Sales
Sales of meter products declined year over year due to project delays and comparison to a high growth rate last year.
Company Guidance
During the Core & Main Q2 2025 earnings call, the company provided revised guidance, adjusting its outlook due to softer residential demand and higher operating expenses. The company now anticipates net sales between $7.6 and $7.7 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $920 to $940 million, and operating cash flow of $550 to $610 million for the fiscal year. Municipal end market volumes are expected to grow in the low single digits, non-residential volumes to remain roughly flat, while residential lot development is projected to decline in the low double digits. Despite this, Core & Main achieved nearly 7% net sales growth in the quarter, with organic growth at approximately 5%, supported by strong municipal demand and strategic initiatives such as treatment plant and fusible HDPE projects. Gross margins improved to 26.8%, up from the previous year, due to private label and sourcing initiatives, although SG&A expenses increased by 13%, driven by acquisitions and inflationary pressures. The company is implementing targeted cost-out actions to improve productivity and expects to realize savings in the second half of 2025, with more substantial benefits anticipated in 2026.

Core & Main Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Core & Main shows strong financial performance with consistent revenue growth and solid profitability margins. The balance sheet is stable with manageable leverage and strong return on equity. Cash flow generation is robust, although there is a slight decline in free cash flow growth.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Core & Main has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with a TTM revenue growth rate of 1.7%. The company maintains healthy profitability metrics, with a gross profit margin of 26.6% and a net profit margin of 5.5% in the TTM period. EBIT and EBITDA margins are also robust at 9.5% and 12.1%, respectively. These figures indicate a solid operational performance, although there is a slight decline in margins compared to previous periods.
Balance Sheet
75
Positive
The balance sheet shows a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 1.45, indicating a balanced approach to leveraging. The return on equity is strong at 24.6%, reflecting efficient use of equity capital. However, the equity ratio is not explicitly provided, which could provide further insights into asset financing. Overall, the balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with manageable leverage.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
Cash flow metrics reveal a slight decline in free cash flow growth, with a negative growth rate of -2.6% in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.50, suggesting adequate cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is high at 93.4%, indicating strong cash conversion. Despite the decline in free cash flow growth, the company maintains solid cash flow generation capabilities.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue7.74B7.44B6.70B6.65B5.00B3.64B
Gross Profit2.06B1.98B1.82B1.79B1.28B878.00M
EBITDA926.00M913.00M894.00M924.00M524.00M338.00M
Net Income431.00M411.00M371.00M366.00M166.00M37.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets6.31B5.87B5.07B4.91B4.43B3.59B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments25.00M8.00M1.00M177.00M1.00M380.90M
Total Debt2.53B2.51B2.07B1.63B1.62B2.39B
Total Liabilities4.34B4.10B3.54B2.50B2.60B2.92B
Stockholders Equity1.89B1.70B1.45B1.75B1.32B801.00M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow564.00M586.00M1.03B376.00M-51.00M202.00M
Operating Cash Flow606.00M621.00M1.07B401.00M-31.00M214.00M
Investing Cash Flow-198.00M-788.00M-270.00M-152.00M-203.00M-228.90M
Financing Cash Flow-396.00M174.00M-975.00M-73.00M-146.00M215.00M

Core & Main Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price47.99
Price Trends
50DMA
50.70
Negative
100DMA
56.37
Negative
200DMA
54.50
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-1.69
Positive
RSI
46.15
Neutral
STOCH
53.82
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CNM, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 47.99 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 48.62, below the 50-day MA of 50.70, and below the 200-day MA of 54.50, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.69 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.15 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 53.82 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for CNM.

Core & Main Risk Analysis

Core & Main disclosed 47 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Core & Main reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Core & Main Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
74
Outperform
$12.87B20.7613.06%0.67%5.28%1.97%
74
Outperform
$9.65B24.6022.10%0.72%4.03%5.93%
73
Outperform
$44.94B26.3848.98%0.93%4.83%-3.60%
69
Neutral
£48.03B26.2832.29%1.31%3.80%9.26%
64
Neutral
$9.25B20.9424.42%11.02%7.08%
64
Neutral
$4.93B24.7914.34%3.83%-1.35%-22.24%
63
Neutral
$10.79B15.437.44%2.01%2.89%-14.66%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
CNM
Core & Main
47.99
-0.56
-1.15%
AIT
Applied Industrial Technologies
257.32
-15.41
-5.65%
MSM
MSC Industrial
89.34
6.98
8.47%
GWW
WW Grainger
945.10
-249.54
-20.89%
WCC
Wesco International
264.58
55.04
26.27%
FERG
Ferguson PLC
252.54
40.34
19.01%

Core & Main Corporate Events

Core & Main Reports Strong Q2 2025 Performance
Sep 10, 2025

Core & Main, Inc., based in St. Louis, is a leading specialty distributor focused on water, wastewater, storm drainage, and fire protection products, serving municipalities, private water companies, and professional contractors across the U.S. with over 370 locations.

Core & Main’s Earnings Call: Mixed Outlook Amid Growth
Sep 10, 2025

Core & Main, Inc. Class A’s recent earnings call painted a mixed picture for investors. While the company celebrated significant net sales growth and strategic expansion into the Canadian market, these positive developments were tempered by challenges such as a decline in the residential market, elevated operating costs, and a downward revision in financial guidance for fiscal 2025.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 15, 2025