COMPASS Pathways (CMPS) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $811.22M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.62M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.16
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: -21.62%
• Country: US
• Employees: 166
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Medical - Care Facilities
• EPS (TTM): -1.44
• Shares Outstanding: 96,017,044
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 5,324,265
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,623,470
• PEG Ratio: 1.91
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.65
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -2.14
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.77
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -2.69
• 1Y Price Target: $19.64
• Price Target Upside: 137.77% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 11
• EPS Forecast (FY): -1.84
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 58 Neutral
• Price Target: $7.00 ▼(-15.25% Downside)

The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance (no revenue, escalating losses/cash burn, and reduced equity with higher leverage). Offsetting this, technicals are trending positively and the latest earnings call highlighted significant Phase III/regulatory progress and a stated cash runway into 2027, while valuation remains constrained by ongoing losses and no dividend.

Positive Factors

Phase III clinical progress

A highly statistically significant Phase III readout materially derisks the lead program versus earlier-stage biotech norms. This improves the probability of approval, shortens time-to-market through an accelerated/rolling NDA, and increases the chance of sustainable future revenues and partner interest.

Launch readiness and partnerships

Active commercial preparation and strategic collaboration efforts build durable distribution and delivery capabilities. Strengthening provider relationships and commercial infrastructure reduces execution risk at launch and increases odds of effective market uptake if regulatory approval is achieved.

Expanded Hercules financing facility

Securing milestone-based term loans and an immediate draw materially extends liquidity into key development and commercial inflection points. The structure preserves runway, lowers near-term refinancing pressure, and supports continued trials and commercialization activities tied to achievement of milestones.

Negative Factors

Zero revenue and rising cash burn

Persistent absence of revenue combined with a deepening operating cash burn means the business cannot self-fund operations. That structural cash deficit forces dependence on external capital, increasing dilution or leverage risk and constraining strategic options absent program success.

Weakened equity and higher leverage

A sharply reduced equity base and rising leverage materially shrink the balance sheet cushion against setbacks. Higher leverage increases sensitivity to cash shortfalls and limits flexibility, making the company more vulnerable to delays, cost overruns or unfavorable financing terms.

Milestone-linked covenants and collateral

Milestone-triggered tranches and broad collateral restrict optionality: failing milestones can stop funding, trigger covenants or asset claims. This concentrates downside risk on execution milestones and can impose lender-driven constraints during critical development and early commercialization phases.

COMPASS Pathways Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

COMPASS Pathways plc operates as a mental health care company primarily in the United Kingdom and the United States. It develops COMP360, a psilocybin therapy that has completed Phase IIb clinical trials for the treatment of treatment-resistant depression; and is in Phase II clinical trials for the treatment of post-traumatic stress disorder. The company was formerly known as COMPASS Rx Limited and changed its name to COMPASS Pathways plc in August 2020. COMPASS Pathways plc was incorporated in 2020 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.

How the Company Makes Money

COMPASS Pathways makes money primarily through the development and commercialization of its proprietary psilocybin therapy. The company generates revenue by conducting clinical trials and eventually getting regulatory approval to market its therapies. Once approved, COMPASS can license its therapies to healthcare providers or sell them directly to institutions and clinics specializing in mental health treatments. Key revenue streams include potential partnerships with pharmaceutical companies, research grants, and future sales of approved treatments. Strategic collaborations with academic institutions and mental health organizations also play a significant role in advancing their clinical programs and expanding market reach.

COMPASS Pathways Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials reflect a development-stage profile with no revenue and worsening losses and cash burn (net loss widened to ~$237M TTM; operating cash flow about -$161M TTM). Balance sheet flexibility also weakened as equity fell sharply and leverage rose to ~0.94 debt-to-equity TTM, increasing reliance on external funding despite moderate absolute debt.

Income Statement

Across annual periods (2020–2024) and TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) 2025-09-30, the company reports zero revenue and persistently large losses. Net loss widened from about $61M (2020) to ~$155M (2024) and further to ~$237M in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), indicating rising operating cost intensity and no evident path to self-funded profitability in the provided figures. A positive is that losses are fairly consistent with a development-stage profile, but the trajectory is clearly deteriorating most recently.

Balance Sheet

Leverage increased materially: debt-to-equity rose from very low levels in 2020–2023 (near-zero to ~0.15) to ~0.21 in 2024 and ~0.94 in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), reflecting heavier reliance on debt and/or a sharply reduced equity base. Equity fell substantially from ~$284M (2021) to ~$155M (2024) and down to ~$38M in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), which reduces financial flexibility. Total debt remains moderate in absolute dollars (~$35M TTM), but returns on equity are deeply negative, consistent with ongoing losses.

Cash Flow

Cash burn is significant and trending worse in the most recent period: operating cash flow was about -$41M (2020), -$68M (2021), -$105M (2022), -$97M (2023), -$119M (2024), and -$161M in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). Free cash flow is similarly negative each period, indicating the business is not close to funding operations internally. A modest positive is that free cash flow improved year-over-year in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) per the provided growth figure, but the absolute burn rate remains high.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Gross Profit	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	-112.87K
EBITDA	-231.27M	-148.82M	-115.24M	-90.77M	-71.37M	-64.94M
Net Income	-237.32M	-155.12M	-118.46M	-91.50M	-71.74M	-60.80M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	255.61M	213.67M	275.99M	197.29M	300.90M	203.46M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	185.94M	165.08M	220.20M	143.21M	273.24M	190.33M
Total Debt	35.18M	32.19M	33.05M	1.93M	3.61M	0.00
Total Liabilities	218.02M	58.97M	50.24M	16.01M	16.49M	6.89M
Stockholders Equity	37.59M	154.69M	225.74M	181.28M	284.41M	196.56M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-161.21M	-119.19M	-97.44M	-106.05M	-68.08M	-41.51M
Operating Cash Flow	-161.21M	-119.19M	-97.38M	-105.45M	-67.75M	-41.38M
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	0.00	-64.00K	-596.00K	-334.00K	-628.00K
Financing Cash Flow	140.68M	63.82M	173.83M	1.04M	156.65M	194.16M

COMPASS Pathways Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 8.26
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CMPS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 8.26 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.75, above the 50-day MA of 6.82, and above the 200-day MA of 5.32, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.18 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.21 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 76.25 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CMPS.

COMPASS Pathways Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TALK	64 Neutral	$651.03M	197.95	6.65%	―	18.37%	―
INNV	59 Neutral	$1.08B	173.76	2.56%	―	12.48%	-9.28%
CMPS	58 Neutral	$811.22M	-3.08	-205.17%	―	―	-21.62%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
CCRN	48 Neutral	$272.56M	-17.31	-3.76%	―	-22.14%	-787.87%
TOI	46 Neutral	$255.79M	-4.04	-3407.86%	―	21.67%	16.74%
AGL	46 Neutral	$156.21M	-0.52	-73.31%	―	5.21%	5.21%

COMPASS Pathways Corporate Events

COMPASS Pathways expands Hercules loan facility for runway

On January 5, 2026, COMPASS Pathways and certain subsidiaries entered into a third amendment to their loan and security agreement with Hercules Capital, expanding the facility to provide up to $150 million in term loans across five milestone-based tranches, including an immediate $50 million draw of which about $31.1 million will repay existing indebtedness. The amended agreement locks in an interest-only period until at least early 2029, sets a maturity date of January 5, 2031, and adds a mix of facility, end-of-term and prepayment charges, while maintaining collateralization over substantially all personal property and customary covenants and default provisions; the structure ties further borrowing capacity and certain financial covenants to the company’s achievement of clinical, FDA approval and commercial milestones for its lead product candidate, providing extended runway but also embedding performance and cash-balance requirements that will be closely watched by lenders and investors.

The most recent analyst rating on (CMPS) stock is a Hold with a $7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on COMPASS Pathways stock, see the CMPS Stock Forecast page.