DocGo (DCGO) AI Stock Analysis

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DocGo

(NASDAQ:DCGO)

Rating:48Neutral

Price Target:

$1.50

▼(-1.96%Downside)

DocGo's overall stock score is primarily impacted by operational challenges and declining revenue, as highlighted in the financial performance analysis. Despite a stable balance sheet and improved cash flow, the negative market momentum and high valuation concerns weigh heavily on the score. The mixed sentiment from the earnings call, with significant downward revenue revisions, further contributes to the cautious outlook.

Positive Factors

Business Expansion

The core payer and care gap closure business is performing well, with significant investments in Artificial Intelligence and automation.

Business Growth

The Transport business is performing well, with revenue increasing due to higher hospital volumes and more trips.

Financial Stability

DocGo has cash and is collecting accounts receivable from the migrant business, which provides a financial runway to ramp up the payer and provider business.

Negative Factors

Earnings

The stock recommendation for DocGo has been downgraded to HOLD due to a disappointing first quarter and a significant downward revision to 2025 guidance.

Government Contracts

The ability to launch new business and timing of RFP decisions have hit a wall due to uncertainty related to federal funding and program cuts.

Revenue Guidance

The slowdown and low visibility in municipal work have led to a significant reduction in revenue guidance for 2025.

DocGo (DCGO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$151.63M

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)1.33M

Price to Earnings (P/E)12.7

Beta (1Y)0.82

Revenue Growth-26.00%

EPS Growth-103.18%

CountryUS

Employees3,404

SectorHealthcare

Sector Strength42

IndustryMedical - Care Facilities

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)-0.09

Shares Outstanding99,104,330

10 Day Avg. Volume577,333

30 Day Avg. Volume1,334,520

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio2.16

Price to Book (P/B)0.46

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio1.63

Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.79

Enterprise Value/Revenue0.05

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.71

Enterprise Value/Ebitda0.63

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$3.11

Price Target Upside103.27% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering5

DocGo Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionDocGo (DCGO) is a leading provider in the mobile health services sector, primarily focusing on delivering on-demand healthcare solutions. The company offers a range of services including telehealth consultations, medical transportation, and mobile clinical services, designed to enhance patient care and accessibility. By integrating advanced technology with healthcare, DocGo aims to provide efficient and convenient medical services outside of traditional hospital settings.

How the Company Makes MoneyDocGo makes money through a diversified revenue model that includes service fees for its mobile health services, telehealth consultations, and medical transportation offerings. The company partners with various healthcare providers, insurance companies, and government entities to deliver its services, often entering into contractual agreements that ensure a steady revenue stream. Key revenue streams include billing for patient visits, charges for transportation services, and fees for telehealth consultations. Additionally, partnerships with healthcare systems and insurers help DocGo expand its reach and customer base, contributing significantly to its earnings.

DocGo Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 08, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: -34.33%|

Next Earnings Date:Aug 11, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call presents a mixed sentiment. While the company shows promising growth in its medical transportation and payer/provider verticals, supported by strong cash flow and a high net promoter score, it faces significant challenges with its government population health vertical, leading to a substantial downward revision in revenue guidance and an adjusted EBITDA loss.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Growth in Medical Transportation

The medical transportation business is expected to generate $225 million in revenue for 2025, with record trip volume in Q1 and projections to reach 575,000 transports by year-end 2025 and 700,000 by the end of 2026.

Expansion in Payer and Provider Vertical

Payer and provider vertical is on track to generate $50 million in revenue for 2025. Notable growth in the Care Gap closure program with assigned lives increasing from 700,000 to 900,000 in one quarter.

Positive Cash Flow and Strong Balance Sheet

Despite a projected adjusted EBITDA loss, the company anticipates positive cash flow from operations and expects to end 2025 with over $110 million in cash, aiming to be debt-free.

High Net Promoter Score

DocGo Inc.'s mobile health net promoter score was 86, significantly higher than the industry average of 58.

Negative Updates

Government Population Health Vertical Challenges

Substantial uncertainty due to policy changes and budget cuts led to the removal of non-migrant government population health revenue from the 2025 guidance, resulting in a revised revenue forecast from $410-450 million to $300-330 million.

Decline in Overall Revenue

Total revenue for Q1 2025 was $96 million, down from $192.1 million in Q1 2024, primarily due to the wind-down of migrant-related projects.

Adjusted EBITDA Loss

Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2025 was a loss of $3.9 million compared to $24.1 million in Q1 2024. The decline is attributed to the government vertical and increased SG&A as a percentage of revenue.

Increased SG&A Costs

SG&A costs were 46.7% of total revenues in Q1 2025 compared to 26.8% in Q1 2024, reflecting increased costs relative to declining revenues.

Company Guidance

During the DocGo Inc. First Quarter Earnings Conference Call, CEO Lee Bienstock provided guidance for 2025, noting significant changes due to the removal of government population health vertical revenues from their guidance. This decision was driven by uncertainties and delays in government contracts, resulting in a revised revenue projection of $300 million to $330 million, down from $410 million to $450 million, with an expected adjusted EBITDA loss of $20 million to $30 million. Despite this, the company anticipates $225 million in revenue from medical transportation, $50 million from payer and provider services, and $50 million from migrant healthcare services. Additionally, the medical transportation business is expected to achieve an adjusted EBITDA of over $15 million in 2025, with projected growth to 575,000 transports by year-end. DocGo also reported a total revenue of $96 million for Q1 2025, compared to $192.1 million in Q1 2024, and a net loss of $11.1 million compared to a net income of $10.6 million in the previous year. The company plans to achieve positive adjusted EBITDA by 2026 through cost-cutting measures and strategic reinvestments.

DocGo Financial Statement Overview

Summary

DocGo presents a stable balance sheet with adequate equity and manageable debt levels. However, the income statement reveals profitability issues and declining revenue, which indicate operational challenges. The cash flow is a bright spot, with improved free cash flow and cash generation, suggesting potential for recovery.

Income Statement

Neutral

Gross Profit Margin for TTM is 32.58%, while Net Profit Margin is negative at -0.12%, indicating operational challenges. Revenue has decreased from the previous year, showing a negative growth trend. EBIT and EBITDA margins have declined significantly in the TTM period, pointing to reduced profitability.

Balance Sheet

Neutral

Debt-to-Equity Ratio for TTM is 0.20, showing moderate leverage. Return on Equity is negative at -0.21%, reflecting losses. Equity Ratio is healthy at 71.82%, indicating strong equity financing. Overall, the company maintains a stable financial structure with manageable debt levels.

Cash Flow

Positive

Free Cash Flow has grown significantly in the TTM period. Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is strong, suggesting robust cash generation relative to reported losses. The company has improved its cash flow position, enhancing financial flexibility.

TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
520.50M	616.56M	624.29M	440.52M	318.72M	94.09M
	Gross Profit
169.62M	197.69M	195.38M	154.72M	109.75M	31.35M
	EBIT
-1.18M	28.69M	15.05M	21.83M	10.49M	-14.76M
	EBITDA
15.34M	45.80M	31.75M	32.40M	28.07M	-9.25M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-640.62K	19.99M	6.86M	34.58M	23.74M	-14.80M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
89.24M	89.24M	59.29M	157.34M	175.54M	32.42M
	Total Assets
455.62M	455.62M	490.45M	393.28M	309.60M	100.17M
	Total Debt
57.19M	57.19M	46.50M	19.91M	16.51M	13.89M
	Net Debt
-32.05M	-32.05M	-12.79M	-137.42M	-159.03M	-18.53M
	Total Liabilities
140.44M	140.44M	185.28M	114.35M	82.55M	33.23M
	Stockholders Equity
320.92M	320.92M	300.79M	273.23M	219.58M	55.00M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
84.34M	64.50M	-74.35M	23.37M	-8.60M	-16.97M
	Operating Cash Flow
90.63M	70.34M	-64.22M	28.87M	-1.95M	-10.65M
	Investing Cash Flow
-14.91M	-12.72M	-29.88M	-38.45M	-8.59M	-6.04M
	Financing Cash Flow
-31.79M	-24.15M	1.12M	-6.18M	155.21M	-812.09K

DocGo Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Neutral

Last Price1.53

Price Trends

50DMA

1.99

Negative

100DMA

3.03

Negative

200DMA

3.41

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.17

Negative

RSI

42.73

Neutral

STOCH

74.27

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DCGO, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 1.53 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.42, below the 50-day MA of 1.99, and below the 200-day MA of 3.41, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.17 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 42.73 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 74.27 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for DCGO.

DocGo Risk Analysis

DocGo disclosed 70 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. DocGo reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks

DocGo has entered in the past, and may enter in the future, joint ventures and other contractual relationships with healthcare provider partners and other strategic partners that may be novel and subject to certain commercial and other risks, and DocGo cannot guarantee that such partnerships will be operationally or financially successful. Q4, 2024

The use of artificial intelligence ("AI") in DocGo's operations poses inherent risks and could adversely affect DocGo's business. Q4, 2024

We may be subject to increased regulations, reporting requirements, standards or expectations regarding the environmental impact of our business, which have the potential to disrupt our business or otherwise adversely impact our business, financial conditions or results of operations. Q4, 2024

DocGo Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (54)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
AUNA	64 Neutral	$481.82M	11.36	9.93%	―	6.97%	―
TALK	61 Neutral	$550.47M	197.01	2.52%	―	25.02%	―
CYH	59 Neutral	$548.60M	―	39.18%	―	1.05%	-288.07%
INNV	55 Neutral	$542.75M	―	-12.03%	―	12.19%	-1.59%
Sector *	54 Neutral	$5.31B	3.28	-45.10%	2.80%	16.76%	0.02%
DCGO	48 Neutral	$151.63M	12.68	-0.21%	―	-26.00%	-103.18%
PIII	43 Neutral	$47.58M	―	-131.17%	―	9.79%	-47.01%

* Healthcare Sector Average

Performance Comparison

DCGO

DocGo

1.53

-1.67

-52.19%

CYH

Community Health

3.91

0.16

4.27%

TALK

Talkspace

3.29

0.68

26.05%

INNV

InnovAge Holding

4.02

-0.95

-19.11%

PIII

P3 Health Partners

6.62

-25.40

-79.33%

AUNA

Auna S.A. Class A

6.51

-1.32

-16.86%

DocGo Corporate Events

Stock Buyback

DocGo Extends Share Repurchase Program to 2025

Neutral

Dec 20, 2024

DocGo Inc. has extended its share repurchase program, initially set to expire on December 31, 2024, to June 30, 2025. The program allows the discretionary repurchase of up to $26 million in common stock, utilizing the company’s existing cash or future cash flows, and may be adjusted or halted without notice depending on various market and corporate conditions.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.