Cellebrite DI (CLBT) AI Stock Analysis

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Cellebrite DI

(NASDAQ:CLBT)

Rating:61Neutral

Price Target:

$19.00

▲(13.91%Upside)

Cellebrite DI's stock score reflects its robust revenue growth and operational improvements, balanced by profitability challenges. The company's strong cash flow generation supports operational stability, which is positive. Technical analysis indicates bearish trends, but potential for a rebound exists. Valuation remains a concern due to negative net income. The recent earnings call highlights strong product growth and optimism for future performance, boosting investor confidence.

Positive Factors

Federal Opportunities

Management is confident in the pipeline and signaled that the scope of U.S. Federal opportunities has meaningfully grown.

Partnerships and Market Opportunities

Partnership with Relativity helps drive potential enterprise market opportunities.

Product Competitiveness

AI and generative AI features help improve the competitiveness of Cellebrite's products.

Negative Factors

Federal Spending Environment

Cellebrite's 1QCY25 results highlighted the U.S. Federal vertical's constrained spending environment, which is now expected to persist into 2QCY25.

Revenue Guidance

The company lowered its full-year revenue guidance but reiterated its EBITDA guidance.

Uncertainty in Deal Closures

Impact from DOGE likely to lead to near-term uncertainty over deal timing and deal closures.

Cellebrite DI (CLBT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$3.99B

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)1.20M

Price to Earnings (P/E)―

Beta (1Y)1.01

Revenue Growth22.04%

EPS Growth-65.97%

CountryUS

Employees1,167

SectorTechnology

Sector Strength81

IndustrySoftware - Infrastructure

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.07

Shares Outstanding239,470,060

10 Day Avg. Volume1,214,710

30 Day Avg. Volume1,196,673

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF RatioN/A

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$25.00

Price Target Upside49.88% Upside

Rating ConsensusStrong Buy

Number of Analyst Covering7

Cellebrite DI Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCellebrite DI Ltd. develops solutions for legally sanctioned investigations. Its DI platform allows users to collect, review, analyze, and manage digital data across the investigative lifecycle with respect to legally sanctioned investigations and solutions are used in a various case, including child exploitation, homicide, anti-terror, border control, sexual crimes, human trafficking, corporate security, intellectual property theft, and civil litigation. The company's Universal Forensic Extraction Device solution addresses problems in accessing digital information, including complicated device locks, encryption barriers, deleted and unknown content, and other obstacles that can prevent critical evidence from coming to light. It also offers Seeker solution that provides the ability to analyze video footage; OSINT Analyze, a real-time deep dive solution used to analyze open-source information, such as the surface web, deep web, and the dark web; and Crypto Tracer, which analyzes blockchain transactions together with related data from an extensive list of sources to identify and categorize wallets, and transactions. The company serves federal and state and local agencies, as well as enterprise companies and service providers. It has operations in the United States, Germany, Singapore, Australia, Brazil, United Kingdom, France, Canada, Japan, and India. The company was incorporated in 1999 and is based in Petah Tikva, Israel. Cellebrite Mobile Synchronization Ltd. operates as a subsidiary of Sun Corporation.

How the Company Makes MoneyCellebrite generates revenue through the sale of its digital intelligence solutions, which include hardware, software, and service offerings tailored to different investigative needs. Key revenue streams include licensing fees for their software products, sales of digital forensics hardware such as data extraction devices, and ongoing service and maintenance contracts. The company also benefits from significant partnerships with law enforcement agencies and government bodies globally, which allows it to secure long-term contracts and recurring revenue streams. Additionally, Cellebrite offers training and consulting services, adding another layer to its revenue model.

Cellebrite DI Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 14, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: -17.10%|

Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

Cellebrite showed strong growth in several key areas, including ARR and specific product lines like Guardian, and hosted successful events and product releases. However, challenges in the U.S. Federal and EMEA markets moderated some of the positive impacts. Despite these challenges, the company remains optimistic about future growth, particularly in the second half of the year.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong ARR and Revenue Growth

Cellebrite delivered a 23% year-on-year ARR growth, reaching $408 million, and a 20% increase in revenue to $107.5 million for the first quarter of 2025.

Significant Growth in Guardian Product

Guardian achieved its third consecutive quarter of over 100% ARR growth, reflecting strong adoption and interest in this product.

Successful User Conference and Product Release

Cellebrite hosted its first user conference with around 700 attendees and launched the Spring 2025 product release, featuring cloud and AI innovations.

U.S. State and Local, LATAM and Asia Pacific Growth

Cellebrite saw strong performance and momentum in the U.S. state and local, LATAM, and Asia Pacific regions.

Robust Financial Performance

The company achieved a 34% year-on-year growth in adjusted EBITDA, resulting in a 22% margin.

Negative Updates

U.S. Federal Market Challenges

There were modest shortfalls in the U.S. Federal segment due to spending constraints, impacting the company's revenue expectations.

EMEA Market Weakness

EMEA experienced a 15% ARR growth but faced challenges with order timing and spending headwinds.

Pressure on Professional Services Revenue

There was near-term pressure on one-time professional services revenue from U.S. federal agencies, contributing to adjusted revenue guidance.

Company Guidance

During the Cellebrite First Quarter 2025 Financial Results Conference Call, the company reported a strong 23% year-on-year growth in Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR), reaching $408 million, and a 34% increase in adjusted EBITDA, resulting in a 22% margin. The first quarter revenue amounted to $107.5 million, marking a 20% year-over-year increase, primarily driven by a 21% rise in subscription revenue. The gross retention rate held steady at 92%, with notable retention in the U.S. and Asia Pacific regions. Despite challenges in the U.S. Federal and EMEA sectors, the company remains optimistic about future growth, projecting second quarter ARR between $416 million to $426 million, and revenue of $110 million to $116 million. The full-year guidance remains unchanged, anticipating continued expansion, especially in the U.S. state and local, Latin America, and Asia Pacific markets. The firm highlighted an ongoing focus on strategic areas like Guardian and Pathfinder solutions, with Guardian achieving over 100% ARR growth for three consecutive quarters.

Cellebrite DI Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Cellebrite DI demonstrates strong revenue growth and operational improvements. However, it faces challenges with profitability due to negative net income and historical negative equity. Despite these challenges, the company has robust cash flow generation, indicating operational stability.

Income Statement

Positive

Cellebrite DI has shown consistent revenue growth with a significant increase from 2023 to 2024. The gross profit margin is strong, though the net profit margin is negative due to high expenses leading to net losses. The EBIT margin shows improvement, indicating operational efficiency in recent years. However, the EBITDA margin is negative, reflecting substantial non-operating expenses or adjustments.

Balance Sheet

Neutral

The company's debt-to-equity ratio is low, suggesting minimal reliance on debt financing. However, the negative stockholders' equity in 2021 could indicate financial instability during that period. The return on equity is not calculable due to negative equity in some years, and the equity ratio shows fluctuations, reflecting changes in the company's asset base and equity.

Cash Flow

Positive

Cellebrite DI exhibits strong cash flow generation with positive operating and free cash flows, which have grown over time. The free cash flow to net income ratio is not favorable due to the net losses. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio suggests that the company is generating sufficient cash from operations despite the net losses, indicating good cash flow management.

Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
401.20M	325.11M	270.65M	246.25M	194.91M
	Gross Profit
338.61M	271.88M	219.91M	203.69M	157.03M
	EBIT
56.91M	33.24M	1.04M	13.82M	9.22M
	EBITDA
-265.38M	-64.80M	10.24M	89.88M	16.95M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-283.01M	-81.10M	120.81M	71.40M	5.78M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
447.22M	302.92M	183.62M	181.56M	237.64M
	Total Assets
690.57M	532.88M	403.29M	339.78M	364.39M
	Total Debt
10.97M	14.13M	15.36M	0.00	0.00
	Net Debt
-180.69M	-175.39M	-72.29M	-145.97M	-128.71M
	Total Liabilities
354.55M	498.67M	329.43M	413.13M	300.58M
	Stockholders Equity
336.02M	34.21M	73.86M	-73.35M	63.80M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
118.27M	94.14M	11.49M	27.94M	60.33M
	Operating Cash Flow
126.84M	102.06M	20.58M	36.05M	66.51M
	Investing Cash Flow
-149.47M	-22.54M	-91.23M	45.23M	-6.45M
	Financing Cash Flow
25.99M	21.77M	13.97M	-68.40M	-8.59M

Cellebrite DI Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price16.68

Price Trends

50DMA

18.77

Negative

100DMA

20.00

Negative

200DMA

19.22

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.67

Positive

RSI

34.16

Neutral

STOCH

31.57

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CLBT, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 16.68 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.12, below the 50-day MA of 18.77, and below the 200-day MA of 19.22, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.67 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 34.16 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 31.57 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CLBT.

Cellebrite DI Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
QLYS	78 Outperform	$4.99B	28.31	40.23%	―	9.58%	12.41%
VRNS	66 Neutral	$5.29B	―	-22.21%	―	13.34%	13.71%
S	64 Neutral	$5.86B	―	-26.98%	―	32.25%	20.56%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$11.50B	10.46	-6.94%	2.94%	7.57%	-9.03%
RPD	61 Neutral	$1.47B	57.49	164.75%	―	6.19%	―
CLBT	61 Neutral	$3.99B	―	-115.35%	―	22.04%	-65.97%
TENB	60 Neutral	$3.94B	―	-12.09%	―	11.79%	35.35%

* Technology Sector Average

Performance Comparison

CLBT

Cellebrite DI

16.68

6.24

59.77%

QLYS

Qualys

138.55

2.88

2.12%

VRNS

Varonis Systems

47.68

5.52

13.09%

RPD

Rapid7

22.95

-12.62

-35.48%

TENB

Tenable Holdings

32.22

-8.86

-21.57%

SentinelOne

17.61

0.39

2.26%

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.