Chemung Financial (CHMG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $256.82M
• Dividend Yield: 2.4%
• Average Volume (3M): 8.71K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 8.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.41
• Revenue Growth: -6.25%
• EPS Growth: -38.79%
• Country: US
• Employees: 343
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 1.61
• Shares Outstanding: 4,794,349
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 6,565
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 8,708
• PEG Ratio: -0.48
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.05
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.92
• P/FCF Ratio: 6.08
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.93
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.70
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.65
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 10.88
• 1Y Price Target: $64.00
• Price Target Upside: 20.08% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): 6.79
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $123.70M

• Rating: 58 Neutral
• Price Target: $56.00 ▲(5.07% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 03/14/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 03/14/26

The score is held back primarily by weaker 2025 fundamentals—especially the sharp cash flow drop and margin/ROE compression—despite a conservative balance sheet. Technicals also reflect bearish momentum. These risks are partly offset by an attractive valuation (low P/E with a dividend) and positive recent corporate updates supporting capital return and strategy.

Positive Factors

Cash generation

Sustained free cash flow growth and strong operating cash conversion provide durable internal funding for lending, investments, and dividends. This reduces reliance on volatile wholesale funding and supports capital allocation through economic cycles, enhancing financial resilience.

Leverage improvement

Meaningful improvement in leverage management strengthens the balance sheet, lowering financial risk and increasing capacity to absorb losses. Better leverage supports future loan growth and capital returns while improving regulatory and creditor confidence over the medium term.

Balance-sheet repositioning

Structural shift from low-yield securities to loans and issuance of subordinated debt improves earning asset mix, widens NIM potential, and bolsters regulatory capital. These durable changes should lift recurring net interest income and support sustainable earnings growth.

Negative Factors

Margin pressure

Ongoing compression in gross, EBIT and EBITDA margins reduces operating leverage and long-term profitability. Persistent margin erosion limits reinvestment capacity and ROE recovery, making it harder to sustain dividends or fund growth without structural revenue improvements.

Earnings deterioration

Material declines in revenue and EPS signal underlying earnings stress that could persist if cost or yield pressures remain. Weak top-line and per-share earnings constrain internal capital generation and could limit strategic investments and shareholder returns over the medium term.

Regional concentration

High geographic concentration in New York markets exposes the bank to localized economic cycles and credit risk. Limited geographic diversification can cap growth potential and amplify downside in regional downturns, making multi-region expansion crucial for durable risk reduction.

Chemung Financial Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Chemung Financial Corporation operates as the holding company for Chemung Canal Trust Company that provides a range of banking, financing, fiduciary, and other financial services. The company provides demand, savings, and time deposits; non-interest and interest-bearing checking accounts; and insured money market accounts. It also offers commercial and agricultural loans comprising loans to small to mid-sized businesses; commercial mortgage loans; residential mortgage loans; consumer loans, including home equity lines of credit and home equity term loans; and interest rate swaps, letters of credit, wealth management, employee benefit plans, mutual fund, insurance products, and brokerage services. Further, it provides securities, insurance, and tax preparation services. Additionally, it offers guardian, custodian, and trustee services, as well as acts as an agent for pension, profit-sharing, and other employee benefit trusts; and various investment, pension, estate planning, and employee benefit administrative services. The company operates 31 branch offices located in 13 counties in New York and Bradford County in Pennsylvania. Chemung Financial Corporation was founded in 1833 and is headquartered in Elmira, New York.

How the Company Makes Money

Chemung Financial primarily makes money through net interest income and noninterest income. Net interest income is earned by taking in deposits (such as checking, savings, and time deposits) and other funding, then deploying those funds into interest-earning assets—most notably commercial and consumer loans and investment securities—earning interest on those assets while paying interest (and incurring funding costs) on its deposits and borrowings; the spread between interest earned and interest paid is a core driver of earnings. Noninterest income is generated from fee-based activities that typically include trust and wealth management services (e.g., fiduciary, investment management, and related advisory or administrative fees), deposit service charges and account-related fees, and other banking-related fees and service revenues; if specific line items within noninterest income are not publicly detailed in a given source, they are null. The company’s overall profitability is also influenced by credit performance (loan losses and provisioning), operating efficiency (personnel and branch/network costs), and interest-rate conditions that affect loan yields, deposit costs, and securities portfolio returns.

Chemung Financial Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Balance sheet strength is a key positive (very low debt-to-equity and rising equity), but 2025 operating performance weakened: revenue declined, margins compressed, and ROE fell. The largest concern is the sharp deterioration in operating and free cash flow in 2025, raising earnings-quality and near-term flexibility risk.

Income Statement

Revenue has grown meaningfully over the multi-year period (strong growth in 2022 and 2023), but 2024–2025 shows a clear step-down: revenue declined in 2025 and profitability compressed. Net margin fell from ~18% (2023) and ~16% (2024) to ~11% (2025), with operating profitability also down versus prior years. Positives include still-positive margins and a history of solid profitability, but the most recent year signals weaker earnings power and less favorable operating momentum.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet looks conservatively positioned in the most recent year, with very low reported debt relative to equity (debt-to-equity ~0.02 in 2025) and rising equity. Total assets are broadly stable over time, suggesting balance-sheet size has been maintained without obvious expansion risk. The main drawback is returns have cooled: return on equity declined to ~6% in 2025 from ~11–13% in 2023–2024, indicating reduced efficiency in generating profits from capital despite the stronger leverage profile.

Cash Flow

Cash generation deteriorated sharply in 2025: operating cash flow fell to about $2.0M from roughly $30M+ in prior years, and free cash flow dropped by ~94% year over year. Earlier years showed steady, strong cash conversion (free cash flow generally close to net income), but the latest period introduces a major volatility and sustainability concern. The core weakness is the abrupt decline in cash flow versus the company’s historical run-rate.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	139.94M	149.61M	136.58M	101.91M	91.84M
Gross Profit	89.83M	96.15M	94.70M	95.17M	88.41M
EBITDA	19.94M	32.10M	34.30M	39.91M	37.26M
Net Income	15.10M	23.67M	25.00M	28.78M	26.43M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.71B	2.78B	2.71B	2.65B	2.42B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	303.37M	468.77M	620.84M	688.46M	819.01M
Total Debt	4.94M	118.52M	40.80M	105.76M	25.54M
Total Liabilities	2.46B	2.56B	2.52B	2.48B	2.21B
Stockholders Equity	254.71M	215.31M	195.24M	166.39M	211.46M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	44.13M	26.19M	30.42M	34.62M	35.09M
Operating Cash Flow	45.82M	29.82M	30.88M	35.05M	35.46M
Investing Cash Flow	68.32M	-57.72M	-82.38M	-252.62M	-242.48M
Financing Cash Flow	-110.76M	38.10M	32.48M	246.46M	125.47M

Chemung Financial Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 53.30
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CHMG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 53.3 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 56.03, below the 50-day MA of 57.36, and above the 200-day MA of 52.84, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.41 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.87 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 26.14 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CHMG.

Chemung Financial Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TSBK	82 Outperform	$299.76M	8.59	11.73%	2.91%	8.17%	21.95%
FDBC	73 Outperform	$252.99M	8.93	11.95%	3.61%	17.97%	68.34%
PKBK	71 Outperform	$324.25M	6.62	12.02%	2.84%	12.91%	21.72%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
FRST	62 Neutral	$315.69M	5.58	15.78%	3.06%	9.90%	―
CHMG	58 Neutral	$256.82M	8.67	6.27%	2.40%	-6.25%	-38.79%
ISBA	57 Neutral	$324.94M	19.51	8.45%	2.13%	7.29%	33.75%

Chemung Financial Corporate Events

Chemung Financial Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend to Shareholders

On February 17, 2026, Chemung Financial Corporation announced that its board of directors approved a quarterly cash dividend of $0.34 per share. The dividend will be paid on April 1, 2026, to common stock shareholders of record at the close of business on March 18, 2026.

The dividend declaration underscores the company’s continued capital return to shareholders and signals confidence in its financial condition and earnings capacity. This move may be viewed by investors as an indicator of stability for the regional community bank and its diversified financial services operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (CHMG) stock is a Buy with a $67.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Chemung Financial stock, see the CHMG Stock Forecast page.

Chemung Financial outlines strategy ahead of Q1 2026 meetings

Chemung Financial Corporation detailed to investors its strategy and recent performance as it prepared for first-quarter 2026 meetings with institutional investors, highlighting a revitalized balance sheet, strong credit metrics and expansion plans in higher-growth New York markets. For 2025, the community bank reported net income of $15.1 million, non-GAAP net income of $27.9 million, annual loan growth of 9.6% driven by 14.3% commercial loan growth, and steady asset quality, while quarterly net interest margin widened to 3.61% and returns on assets and equity improved, supported by a June 2025 balance sheet restructuring that replaced roughly $245 million of low-yield securities with higher-yielding loans and reduced wholesale funding, alongside a $45 million subordinated debt issuance to bolster capital ratios and underpin future earnings and dividend growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (CHMG) stock is a Buy with a $67.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Chemung Financial stock, see the CHMG Stock Forecast page.