The Chefs' Warehouse (CHEF) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.82B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 405.07K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 41.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.93
• Revenue Growth: 8.88%
• EPS Growth: 54.12%
• Country: US
• Employees: 5,029
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Food Distribution
• EPS (TTM): 0.68
• Shares Outstanding: 40,685,550
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 374,690
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 405,074
• PEG Ratio: 1.21
• Price to Book (P/B): 4.07
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.59
• P/FCF Ratio: 28.02
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.40
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.95
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.93
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 17.08
• 1Y Price Target: $77.86
• Price Target Upside: 9.46% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.16
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $4.40B

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: $75.00 ▲(5.44% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/17/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/17/26

The score is driven primarily by improved operating fundamentals and a constructive 2026 outlook, supported by strong technical trend/momentum. The main constraint is valuation (high P/E) alongside the business’s thin margins and meaningful leverage, which raise sensitivity to cost/volume changes and dilution.

Positive Factors

Scale & Revenue Growth

Sustained revenue expansion to >$4bn and double-digit organic growth establishes scale benefits: stronger supplier terms, route economics and fixed-cost absorption. Larger scale supports durable competitiveness, enables targeted M&A and makes margin-dollar improvements more resilient over a 2–6 month horizon.

Improved Cash Generation

Materially positive FCF in 2025 marks a structural recovery from prior years and provides funding for debt reduction, reinvestment and selective buybacks. Improved cash conversion enhances balance sheet optionality and reduces reliance on external capital for medium-term strategic actions.

Operating Leverage & Efficiency

Measured operating leverage and per-route/profit improvements demonstrate sustainable efficiency gains. If maintained, these structural cost controls bolster adjusted EBITDA margins and allow the company to better absorb input cost inflation without eroding long-term profitability.

Negative Factors

Structurally Thin Net Margins

Net margins near 1.7% leave limited buffer against cost inflation, supply disruptions or volume declines. In a low-margin distribution model, small adverse swings in input costs or logistics can quickly erase profits and stress cash flow, making earnings inherently sensitive over coming quarters.

Elevated Leverage

Meaningful indebtedness reduces financial flexibility and increases interest and covenant risk, particularly given thin margins. Elevated leverage constrains ability to absorb shocks, limits downside protection during demand softness, and narrows capacity for large, non-accretive investments.

Exposure to Commodity Inflation & Program Attrition

Heavy sensitivity to center-of-plate commodity inflation and reliance on specific programs creates recurring margin and volume volatility. Program exits and concentrated product inflation can depress gross margins and organic volumes, making underlying cash flows less predictable over the medium term.

The Chefs' Warehouse Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in distribution of specialty food products in the United States and Canada. The company's product portfolio includes approximately 50,000 stock-keeping units, such as specialty food products, such as artisan charcuterie, specialty cheeses, unique oils and vinegars, truffles, caviar, chocolate, and pastry products. It also offers a line of center-of-the-plate products, including custom cut beef, seafood, and hormone-free poultry, as well as food products, such as cooking oils, butter, eggs, milk, and flour. The company serves menu-driven independent restaurants, fine dining establishments, country clubs, hotels, caterers, culinary schools, bakeries, patisseries, chocolatiers, cruise lines, casinos, and specialty food stores. It markets its center-of-the-plate products directly to consumers through a mail and e-commerce platform. The company was founded in 1985 and is headquartered in Ridgefield, Connecticut.

How the Company Makes Money

The Chefs' Warehouse generates revenue primarily through the distribution of specialty food products to various foodservice operators. The company's revenue model is based on selling a diverse range of food items, which includes both perishable and non-perishable goods. Key revenue streams include direct sales to restaurants, hotels, and catering services, as well as sales through e-commerce platforms. Additionally, CHEF benefits from strategic partnerships with local and national suppliers, enabling them to offer unique products and maintain competitive pricing. The company's focus on high-quality service and strong relationships with chefs and foodservice professionals also contributes to repeat business and customer loyalty, further enhancing its earnings potential.

The Chefs' Warehouse Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Fundamentals show a multi-year recovery with materially higher scale and sustained profitability (2022–2025) and positive 2025 free cash flow (~$88M). Offsetting this, profitability remains structurally thin (about ~1.7% net margin in 2025) and leverage is meaningful (2025 total debt ~$1.18B vs equity ~$604M), increasing sensitivity in a low-margin distribution business.

Income Statement

Revenue expanded materially from 2022–2025, with 2025 revenue up to ~$4.15B and profitability improving versus earlier years (2020–2021 losses to 2022–2025 positive net income). Gross margin has been steady in the ~24% range, showing good pricing/merchandising discipline. The key weakness is thin bottom-line profitability: 2025 net margin is ~1.7% and operating profitability remains modest, leaving earnings sensitive to cost inflation and volume shifts. 2025 revenue growth (as provided) is also far slower than prior years, pointing to decelerating top-line momentum.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows meaningful leverage: total debt rose to ~$1.18B in 2025 while equity is ~$604M, implying leverage remains elevated for a distributor. Equity has been building over time and returns on equity were solid in 2023–2024 (~7.6% to ~10.3%), supporting the improving earnings profile. The main risk is debt load relative to the earnings base, which can constrain flexibility in a low-margin business—especially if profitability softens. (Some 2025 leverage/return metrics appear unavailable in the provided data and are not relied on here.)

Cash Flow

Cash generation has improved substantially from 2021–2022, with 2025 operating cash flow of ~$129M and free cash flow of ~$88M, indicating the business is currently converting profits into cash. Free cash flow was negative in 2021–2022 and very small in 2023, highlighting historical volatility. Another watch item is that 2025 operating cash flow and free cash flow are lower than 2024 despite higher earnings, suggesting working-capital or reinvestment demands can swing results year to year. (Coverage/ratio fields for 2025 are shown as 0.0 in the dataset and are treated as unavailable.)

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.15B	3.79B	3.43B	2.61B	1.75B
Gross Profit	1.00B	914.15M	814.47M	618.64M	390.49M
EBITDA	232.43M	193.14M	156.55M	125.71M	47.18M
Net Income	72.36M	55.48M	34.59M	27.75M	-4.92M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.03B	1.86B	1.71B	1.51B	1.07B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	120.98M	114.66M	49.88M	158.80M	115.16M
Total Debt	1.18B	915.83M	926.27M	839.98M	542.48M
Total Liabilities	1.42B	1.32B	1.25B	1.10B	723.58M
Stockholders Equity	604.31M	537.65M	454.67M	401.51M	350.21M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	87.79M	103.56M	4.21M	-22.71M	-58.70M
Operating Cash Flow	129.22M	153.06M	61.64M	23.13M	-19.90M
Investing Cash Flow	-46.76M	-49.82M	-179.31M	-232.02M	-48.99M
Financing Cash Flow	-76.22M	-38.48M	9.01M	253.22M	-9.22M

The Chefs' Warehouse Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 71.13
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CHEF, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 71.13 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 66.02, above the 50-day MA of 64.08, and above the 200-day MA of 62.56, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.88 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 71.39 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 90.70 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CHEF.

The Chefs' Warehouse Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
USFD	70 Outperform	$21.30B	32.78	15.30%	―	4.80%	3.49%
CHEF	69 Neutral	$2.82B	41.29	12.67%	―	8.88%	54.12%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
SYY	62 Neutral	$42.76B	24.01	83.64%	2.84%	2.92%	-4.06%
PFGC	57 Neutral	$15.50B	44.42	7.75%	―	10.55%	-23.38%
UNFI	52 Neutral	$2.39B	-23.20	-6.37%	―	1.45%	-5.49%

The Chefs' Warehouse Corporate Events

Chefs’ Warehouse Issues Strong Fiscal 2026 Growth Outlook

On January 12, 2026, The Chefs’ Warehouse announced preliminary fiscal 2026 guidance following a strong fourth quarter of 2025, projecting net sales between $4.35 billion and $4.45 billion, gross profit of $1.053 billion to $1.076 billion, and adjusted EBITDA in the range of $276 million to $286 million. The company also forecast a diluted share count of 46.0 to 46.7 million, including potential dilution from its senior convertible notes due 2028, and signaled continued investor outreach with a scheduled fireside chat at the ICR Conference on January 13, underscoring its growth outlook and reliance on non-GAAP metrics such as EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA to frame operating performance for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (CHEF) stock is a Buy with a $77.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on The Chefs’ Warehouse stock, see the CHEF Stock Forecast page.