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The Chefs' Warehouse Inc. (CHEF)
NASDAQ:CHEF

The Chefs' Warehouse (CHEF) AI Stock Analysis

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The Chefs' Warehouse

(NASDAQ:CHEF)

Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
The Chefs' Warehouse demonstrates strong financial performance with significant improvements in revenue, profitability, and cash flow. Technical indicators show positive momentum, though the stock may be approaching overbought levels. The high P/E ratio raises valuation concerns, but the earnings call highlights ongoing growth and strategic digital expansion. Overall, the company is well-positioned, but caution is advised due to high leverage and valuation metrics.
Positive Factors
Growth Strategy
Management has identified underpenetrated core markets as primary growth drivers, which are expected to significantly contribute to top line growth and margin expansion.
Market Positioning
Chefs' Warehouse has transitioned from a New York-centric distributor to a national powerhouse, emphasizing methodical expansion and digital transformation.
Operational Efficiency
Technology investments, including a new analytics suite and voice pick for order selection, strengthen CHEF's competitive advantage and increase operational efficiency.
Negative Factors
Cost Challenges
The cost of a new warehouse facility is 3x what it was pre-COVID, which favors larger operators and challenges smaller ones.

The Chefs' Warehouse (CHEF) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

The Chefs' Warehouse Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionThe Chefs' Warehouse (CHEF) is a premier distributor of specialty food products in the United States and Canada. Serving the culinary industry, the company supplies high-quality ingredients, gourmet products, and kitchen essentials to chefs and food establishments. Its offerings include a diverse range of perishable and non-perishable items, catering to the needs of fine dining restaurants, hotels, and other foodservice providers.
How the Company Makes MoneyThe Chefs' Warehouse generates revenue primarily through the sale of its extensive range of specialty food products to restaurants, hotels, and other foodservice institutions. The company's revenue streams are driven by its ability to source and deliver premium products, including proteins, dairy, produce, and pantry staples, to its clients. Additionally, The Chefs' Warehouse benefits from strategic partnerships with artisanal producers and global suppliers, ensuring a consistent supply of high-quality and unique ingredients. Their business model capitalizes on the growing demand for gourmet and specialty foods, allowing them to maintain a competitive edge in the food distribution sector.

The Chefs' Warehouse Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 30, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 17.61%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted strong revenue growth, successful digital platform expansion, and improved operating income. However, it also noted challenges such as a decline in gross profit margins and attrition of non-core businesses that impacted sales. Despite these challenges, the company demonstrated resilience and strategic adaptation. The overall sentiment is balanced with both positive growth metrics and areas needing attention.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Revenue Growth
Net sales for the first quarter of 2025 increased approximately 8.7% to $950.7 million from $874.5 million in the first quarter of 2024.
Specialty Sales Increase
Specialty sales were up 10.7% over the prior year, driven by unique customer growth of approximately 4.5%, placement growth of 7.7%, and specialty case growth of 5.7%.
Digital Platform Expansion
Approximately 58% of customers ordering through domestic specialty locations are now online, up from 56% at year-end 2024 and 48% at year-end 2023.
Improved Operating Income
Operating income for the first quarter of 2025 was $22.7 million compared to $16 million for the first quarter of 2024.
Positive Adjusted EBITDA Growth
Adjusted EBITDA increased to $47.5 million for the first quarter of 2025 compared to $40.2 million for the prior year first quarter.
Negative Updates
Gross Profit Margin Decline
Gross profit margins decreased approximately 18 basis points to 23.8%.
Center of the Plate Volume Decline
Pounds in the center of the plate were approximately 1.3% lower than the prior first quarter.
Attrition of Non-Core Business
Attrition of certain low-margin non-core customer business resulted in a 0.7% lower year-over-year sales impact, particularly affecting the center of the plate category.
Challenges from Tariffs
Potential impacts from tariffs remain a concern, though no immediate impact was noted in the current projects.
Company Guidance
During the Chefs' Warehouse First Quarter 2025 earnings call, the company provided guidance for the full year, estimating net sales to be between $3.96 billion and $4.04 billion. Gross profit is expected to range from $954 million to $976 million, with adjusted EBITDA projected between $234 million and $246 million. The company reported a first-quarter net sales increase of 8.7% to $950.7 million, with specialty sales up 10.7% year-over-year. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $47.5 million, a 18.2% increase from the previous year. Gross profit margins decreased by approximately 18 basis points to 23.8%, while adjusted operating expenses as a percentage of net sales were 18.8%. The company also highlighted that approximately 58% of customer orders are now placed through its digital platform, reflecting a shift towards online engagement.

The Chefs' Warehouse Financial Statement Overview

Summary
The Chefs' Warehouse shows strong financial recovery with significant revenue and profit growth, effective leverage management, and robust cash flow improvements, despite carrying high leverage.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
The Chefs' Warehouse has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a significant increase in total revenue from $1.1 billion in 2020 to $3.9 billion in TTM. Gross profit margins have improved consistently, reaching 24% in TTM. The net profit margin also improved to 1.6% from negative values in prior years, indicating better operational efficiency. Overall, the company shows a strong upward revenue trajectory and improvement in profitability.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The balance sheet indicates a moderate financial position. The debt-to-equity ratio has decreased over time, showing better management of leverage. The equity ratio stands at 29% for TTM, suggesting a balanced asset financing mix. However, the company still carries a significant amount of debt compared to equity, which could pose risks if not managed well.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
The cash flow statement reflects robust operating cash flow, increasing from a negative position in 2021 to $171.7 million in TTM. Free cash flow has also turned positive, demonstrating strong cash generation capabilities. The company has improved its free cash flow to net income ratio, highlighting efficient cash management.
Breakdown
TTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
3.87B3.79B3.43B2.61B1.75B1.11B
Gross Profit
930.71M914.15M814.47M618.64M390.49M248.15M
EBIT
134.94M128.21M100.94M85.74M10.81M-102.66M
EBITDA
185.45M193.14M156.55M85.74M10.81M-68.69M
Net Income Common Stockholders
63.84M55.48M34.59M27.75M-4.92M-82.90M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
116.53M114.66M49.88M158.80M115.16M193.28M
Total Assets
1.84B1.86B1.71B1.51B1.07B974.33M
Total Debt
911.89M915.83M926.27M832.77M542.48M530.48M
Net Debt
795.36M801.17M876.39M673.97M427.32M337.20M
Total Liabilities
1.30B1.32B1.25B1.10B723.58M629.74M
Stockholders Equity
541.64M537.65M454.67M401.51M350.21M344.59M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
126.94M103.56M4.21M-22.71M-58.70M35.84M
Operating Cash Flow
171.73M153.06M61.64M23.13M-19.90M42.88M
Investing Cash Flow
-44.78M-49.82M-179.31M-232.02M-48.99M-67.97M
Financing Cash Flow
-52.64M-38.48M9.01M253.22M-9.22M78.06M

The Chefs' Warehouse Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price62.66
Price Trends
50DMA
58.44
Positive
100DMA
57.58
Positive
200DMA
50.53
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
1.05
Positive
RSI
53.79
Neutral
STOCH
44.25
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CHEF, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 62.66 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 63.39, above the 50-day MA of 58.44, and above the 200-day MA of 50.53, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.05 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 53.79 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 44.25 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CHEF.

The Chefs' Warehouse Risk Analysis

The Chefs' Warehouse disclosed 35 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. The Chefs' Warehouse reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

The Chefs' Warehouse Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
SYSYY
78
Outperform
$36.11B19.2794.91%2.71%3.55%-5.79%
77
Outperform
$17.80B35.3511.16%6.32%5.69%
76
Outperform
$13.78B36.709.05%6.20%-10.58%
74
Outperform
$2.57B42.3212.90%7.85%79.89%
63
Neutral
$624.19M2,245.98-1.38%4.66%-2.66%8.18%
63
Neutral
$6.96B11.512.80%3.85%2.70%-24.43%
51
Neutral
$1.41B-4.11%6.62%53.12%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
CHEF
The Chefs' Warehouse
62.66
23.77
61.12%
SPTN
SpartanNash Co
18.72
-0.03
-0.16%
SYY
Sysco
75.51
6.31
9.12%
UNFI
United Natural Foods
23.30
9.49
68.72%
PFGC
Performance Food Group
87.69
18.69
27.09%
USFD
US Foods Holding
76.93
23.68
44.47%

The Chefs' Warehouse Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
The Chefs’ Warehouse Retains Director Despite Vote Outcome
Neutral
May 23, 2025

At the 2024 annual meeting of stockholders of The Chefs’ Warehouse, Inc., director Richard N. Peretz received more votes against his election than for it. Despite this, the company’s board decided not to accept his resignation, which was offered in accordance with their majority vote policy. The decision was influenced by Mr. Peretz’s qualifications, contributions, and the fact that his low attendance was due to pre-scheduled meetings before his board election. The board concluded that retaining Mr. Peretz was in the best interest of the company and its stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (CHEF) stock is a Buy with a $53.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on The Chefs’ Warehouse stock, see the CHEF Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
The Chefs’ Warehouse Elects New Directors at Annual Meeting
Neutral
May 14, 2025

At the 2025 Annual Meeting, The Chefs’ Warehouse stockholders elected several directors to serve until 2026, with Richard N. Peretz failing to secure the necessary votes, prompting a review by the Nominating and Governance Committee. Additionally, stockholders approved the ratification of BDO USA, P.C. as the independent auditor, endorsed executive compensation on an advisory basis, and amended the 2019 Omnibus Equity Incentive Plan, reflecting continued support for the company’s governance and strategic initiatives.

The most recent analyst rating on (CHEF) stock is a Buy with a $51.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on The Chefs’ Warehouse stock, see the CHEF Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.