The Chefs' Warehouse (CHEF) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.45B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 376.97K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 37.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.96
• Revenue Growth: 8.88%
• EPS Growth: 54.12%
• Country: US
• Employees: 5,029
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Food Distribution
• EPS (TTM): 0.50
• Shares Outstanding: 40,685,550
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 429,023
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 376,970
• PEG Ratio: 0.88
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.43
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.49
• P/FCF Ratio: 17.82
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.99
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.60
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.49
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 10.93
• 1Y Price Target: $77.14
• Price Target Upside: 19.50% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.15
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $4.40B

• Rating: 64 Neutral
• Price Target: $66.00 ▲(2.25% Upside)

CHEF’s score is driven primarily by solid fundamentals (stable gross margin, improved leverage/ROE) and a notably positive outlook with raised guidance and strong FY2026 preliminary targets. Offsetting these positives are weak recent free-cash-flow performance, a neutral-to-soft technical setup, and a relatively high P/E with no dividend yield support.

Positive Factors

Stable gross margins

Maintaining roughly 24% gross margins indicates durable product mix and pricing discipline in specialty distribution. Stable gross margins provide a recurring buffer against input cost swings and support sustainable gross profit as the company scales revenue across channels.

Improved leverage and ROE

Lower leverage (D/E ~0.42) and a mid-teens ROE reflect stronger capital structure and more efficient use of equity. This reduces financial risk, increases flexibility for M&A or capex, and supports shareholder returns over a multi-quarter horizon if maintained.

Raised guidance and expansion

Management's upgraded FY2026 outlook and recent acquisitions/market entries signal execution and scalable growth. Clear upside targets and geographic expansion (e.g., Colorado, Middle East) suggest lasting revenue base expansion if market share gains persist.

Negative Factors

Weak free cash flow

A ~27% decline in FCF and low cash conversion (~0.32) indicate constrained internal funding for growth, acquisitions, or debt reduction. Persistent weak cash generation can force external financing, raising funding costs and reducing strategic flexibility over several quarters.

Thin net profit margin

A sub-2% net margin leaves minimal cushion versus cost inflation or volume hiccups common in perishables distribution. Sustaining growth while improving profitability will require ongoing margin expansion or structural efficiencies to make earnings resilient over time.

Convertible-note dilution risk

Outstanding senior convertible notes create a tangible dilution over the medium term and may increase share count if converted. That dilution can compress per-share metrics and complicate capital allocation choices, posing a structural governance and financing risk.

The Chefs' Warehouse Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in distribution of specialty food products in the United States and Canada. The company's product portfolio includes approximately 50,000 stock-keeping units, such as specialty food products, such as artisan charcuterie, specialty cheeses, unique oils and vinegars, truffles, caviar, chocolate, and pastry products. It also offers a line of center-of-the-plate products, including custom cut beef, seafood, and hormone-free poultry, as well as food products, such as cooking oils, butter, eggs, milk, and flour. The company serves menu-driven independent restaurants, fine dining establishments, country clubs, hotels, caterers, culinary schools, bakeries, patisseries, chocolatiers, cruise lines, casinos, and specialty food stores. It markets its center-of-the-plate products directly to consumers through a mail and e-commerce platform. The company was founded in 1985 and is headquartered in Ridgefield, Connecticut.

How the Company Makes Money

The Chefs' Warehouse generates revenue primarily through the distribution of specialty food products to various foodservice operators. The company's revenue model is based on selling a diverse range of food items, which includes both perishable and non-perishable goods. Key revenue streams include direct sales to restaurants, hotels, and catering services, as well as sales through e-commerce platforms. Additionally, CHEF benefits from strategic partnerships with local and national suppliers, enabling them to offer unique products and maintain competitive pricing. The company's focus on high-quality service and strong relationships with chefs and foodservice professionals also contributes to repeat business and customer loyalty, further enhancing its earnings potential.

The Chefs' Warehouse Financial Statement Overview

Summary

The Chefs' Warehouse demonstrates consistent revenue growth and stable gross profit margins, indicating efficient cost management. However, low net profit margins and declining free cash flow highlight areas for improvement in profitability and cash management.

Income Statement

The Chefs' Warehouse has demonstrated consistent revenue growth, with a TTM growth rate of 2.28% and a strong historical trend. Gross profit margins have remained stable around 24%, indicating efficient cost management. However, net profit margins are relatively low at 1.85%, suggesting room for improvement in profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are modest, reflecting operational efficiency but also highlighting potential for enhanced profitability.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio has significantly improved to 0.42 in the TTM, indicating reduced leverage and a stronger equity position. Return on equity has increased to 13.48%, showcasing improved profitability relative to shareholder equity. The equity ratio of 30.09% suggests a balanced capital structure, though there remains potential risk if debt levels rise again.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow is positive, but the free cash flow has decreased by 26.70% in the TTM, indicating potential cash management challenges. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 0.32 suggests moderate cash generation efficiency. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.68 indicates that a significant portion of net income is being converted into free cash flow, though there is room for improvement.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.04B	3.79B	3.43B	2.61B	1.75B	1.11B
Gross Profit	978.49M	914.15M	814.47M	618.64M	390.49M	248.15M
EBITDA	222.93M	193.14M	156.55M	125.71M	47.18M	-68.69M
Net Income	74.60M	55.48M	34.59M	27.75M	-4.92M	-82.90M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.92B	1.86B	1.71B	1.51B	1.07B	974.33M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	65.06M	114.66M	49.88M	158.80M	115.16M	193.28M
Total Debt	954.12M	915.83M	926.27M	839.98M	542.48M	530.48M
Total Liabilities	1.34B	1.32B	1.25B	1.10B	723.58M	629.74M
Stockholders Equity	576.64M	537.65M	454.67M	401.51M	350.21M	344.59M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	86.64M	103.56M	4.21M	-22.71M	-58.70M	35.84M
Operating Cash Flow	128.36M	153.06M	61.64M	23.13M	-19.90M	42.88M
Investing Cash Flow	-41.72M	-49.82M	-179.31M	-232.02M	-48.99M	-67.97M
Financing Cash Flow	-72.25M	-38.48M	9.01M	253.22M	-9.22M	78.06M

The Chefs' Warehouse Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 64.55
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CHEF, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 64.55 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 62.43, above the 50-day MA of 61.42, and above the 200-day MA of 61.11, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 60.99 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 50.23 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CHEF.

The Chefs' Warehouse Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
USFD	74 Outperform	$18.38B	35.45	12.29%	―	4.80%	3.49%
SYY	71 Outperform	$36.92B	20.66	84.89%	2.84%	2.92%	-4.06%
PFGC	65 Neutral	$14.77B	46.56	7.42%	―	10.55%	-23.38%
CHEF	64 Neutral	$2.45B	37.33	14.12%	―	8.88%	54.12%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
UNFI	52 Neutral	$2.11B	-21.13	-6.37%	―	1.45%	-5.49%

The Chefs' Warehouse Corporate Events

Chefs’ Warehouse Issues Strong Fiscal 2026 Growth Outlook

On January 12, 2026, The Chefs’ Warehouse announced preliminary fiscal 2026 guidance following a strong fourth quarter of 2025, projecting net sales between $4.35 billion and $4.45 billion, gross profit of $1.053 billion to $1.076 billion, and adjusted EBITDA in the range of $276 million to $286 million. The company also forecast a diluted share count of 46.0 to 46.7 million, including potential dilution from its senior convertible notes due 2028, and signaled continued investor outreach with a scheduled fireside chat at the ICR Conference on January 13, underscoring its growth outlook and reliance on non-GAAP metrics such as EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA to frame operating performance for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (CHEF) stock is a Buy with a $77.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on The Chefs’ Warehouse stock, see the CHEF Stock Forecast page.