Performance Food Group (PFGC) AI Stock Analysis

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Performance Food Group

(NYSE:PFGC)

Select Model

Neutral 57 (OpenAI - 5.2)

Rating:57Neutral

Price Target:

$95.00

▼(-2.12% Downside)

Action:ReiteratedDate:02/11/26

The score is driven primarily by solid operating growth and improved cash generation, tempered by elevated leverage and thin, recently softening margins. Technicals are currently weak with the stock trading below key moving averages, and valuation looks demanding at a 41.688 P/E. Earnings call commentary supports the long-term thesis but highlighted meaningful near-term margin and integration headwinds, while recent corporate actions modestly improve maturity profile amid higher debt usage.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Sustained, large-scale top-line growth demonstrates durable demand and successful market penetration across foodservice channels. Scale strengthens purchasing leverage, route density and supplier access, supporting long-term resilience, improved bargaining power and optionality for margin and network improvements.

Strong cash generation

Material improvement in operating cash flow and consistently positive free cash flow provide durable internal funding for capex, M&A and debt reduction. Reliable cash conversion reduces reliance on external financing and underpins the company’s ability to execute strategic investments and deleveraging over several years.

Planned CEO succession

A planned succession with an industry-experienced CEO preserves strategic continuity and lowers leadership risk. The move keeps M&A and customer relationships intact, supporting steady execution of long-term plans, procurement synergies and integration roadmaps without disruptive management turnover.

Negative Factors

Elevated leverage

High absolute debt levels and a debt-to-equity near 1.8 amplify interest-rate and refinancing exposure, reducing financial flexibility. Elevated leverage constrains capital allocation, increases sensitivity to cash-flow swings, and raises the risk of covenant/financing pressure if operations underperform.

Structurally thin margins

Very low net and operating margins leave earnings highly sensitive to commodity cost swings, price competition and integration costs. Thin margins limit the company’s ability to self-fund growth, absorb shocks, and generate strong returns despite scale, making profitability vulnerable over the medium term.

Cheney integration costs

Higher-than-expected integration and infrastructure spending delays synergy realization and depresses near-term EBITDA. Prolonged OpEx elevation raises execution risk, defers cash benefits from the acquisition, and pressures margins until projected synergies materialize in years two to three.

Performance Food Group (PFGC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$15.25B

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)2.81M

Price to Earnings (P/E)44.1

Beta (1Y)0.78

Revenue Growth10.55%

EPS Growth-23.38%

CountryUS

Employees36,630

SectorConsumer Defensive

Sector Strength42

IndustryFood Distribution

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.98

Shares Outstanding157,098,970

10 Day Avg. Volume1,559,266

30 Day Avg. Volume2,808,590

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-1.81

Price to Book (P/B)3.03

Price to Sales (P/S)0.21

P/FCF Ratio19.23

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.52

Enterprise Value/Revenue0.35

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.97

Enterprise Value/Ebitda14.13

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$117.36

Price Target Upside20.91% Upside

Rating ConsensusStrong Buy

Number of Analyst Covering12

EPS Forecast (FY)4.72

Revenue Forecast (FY)$67.61B

Performance Food Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionPerformance Food Group Company, through its subsidiaries, markets and distributes food and food-related products in the United States. It operates through three segments: Foodservice, Vistar, and Convenience. The company offers a range of frozen foods, groceries, candy, snacks, beverages, cigarettes, and other tobacco products; beef, pork, poultry, and seafood; and health and beauty care products. It also sells disposables, cleaning and kitchen supplies, and related products. In addition, the company offers value-added services, such as product selection and procurement, menu development, and operational strategy. It serves independent and chain restaurants, schools, business and industry locations, hospitals, vending distributors, office coffee service distributors, retailers, convenience stores, theaters, hospitality providers, concessionaires, airport gift shops, college bookstores, corrections facilities, and impulse locations, as well as franchises and other institutional customers. Performance Food Group Company was founded in 1885 and is headquartered in Richmond, Virginia.

How the Company Makes MoneyPerformance Food Group generates revenue primarily through the distribution of food and related products to the foodservice industry. The company's revenue model is built on selling a wide variety of products, including meat, seafood, dairy, produce, and dry food items, to a diverse customer base that includes independent restaurants, chains, and institutional clients. Key revenue streams include direct sales to customers, as well as partnerships with major suppliers and manufacturers, allowing for a robust inventory of products. Additionally, PFGC benefits from value-added services such as menu planning, marketing support, and logistics solutions, which enhance customer loyalty and drive repeat business. The company's strategic acquisitions and expansion into new markets also play a significant role in boosting revenue and market share.

Performance Food Group Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 04, 2026

(Q2-2026)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:May 13, 2026

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The call conveyed solid operational and financial performance (5.2% sales growth, 6.7% adjusted EBITDA growth, 7.6% gross profit growth, strong convenience and foodservice share gains, and improved cash flow) while acknowledging meaningful near-term headwinds: higher-than-expected integration and operating costs from the Cheney acquisition, commodity deflation (cheese and poultry) hurting margins, a severe theater sales decline (~30%, ~$50M drag), and higher interest and tax expense. Management reaffirmed multi-year targets and procurement synergy opportunities, expects Cheney synergies to materialize in years two–three, and maintained a disciplined capital allocation stance. Overall, positive momentum and long-term thesis remain intact, but near-term profitability is pressured by integration, commodity, and weather-related factors.

Q2-2026 Updates

Positive Updates

Revenue Growth

Total net sales grew 5.2% year-over-year in Q2 FY2026, with full-year sales guidance updated to $67.25–$68.25 billion and three-year target of $73–$75 billion for FY2028.

Adjusted EBITDA and Profitability

Adjusted EBITDA increased 6.7% to $451 million in the quarter; full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance set at $1.875–$1.975 billion, supporting the company's three-year EBITDA target of $2.3–$2.5 billion.

Net Income and EPS

Net income rose 45.5% year-over-year to $61.7 million in Q2; diluted EPS was $0.39 and adjusted diluted EPS was $0.98 (flat year-over-year).

Gross Profit Improvement

Total company gross profit increased 7.6% in Q2, with gross profit per case rising by $0.20 versus the prior-year period.

Foodservice Organic Growth and Market Share Gains

Foodservice delivered 5.3% organic independent case growth and 5.8% independent account growth, with share gains across independent, regional, and national customers and strength in chicken, burger, barbecue and seafood concepts.

Convenience Segment Outperformance

Convenience net sales increased 6.1%; segment adjusted EBITDA grew 13.4% as Core Mark onboarded >500 Love stores and >600 Racetrack locations and benefited from market share gains and operating efficiencies.

Specialty Margin Expansion Outside Theaters

Despite theater weakness, specialty segment achieved nearly 7% adjusted EBITDA growth and ~40 basis points of margin expansion driven by productivity gains; non-theater channels grew high single to low double digits.

Strong Cash Flow and Deleveraging Progress

Operating cash flow for the first six months was $456 million (up $77 million YoY) and free cash flow was ~$264 million (up nearly $89 million YoY); CapEx of ~$192 million in first six months and priority remains on debt reduction.

M&A Pipeline and Long-Term Synergy Targets

Management reiterates a robust M&A pipeline and confidence in capturing $100–$125 million of procurement synergies over the three-year plan; Cheney (Channing) acquisition expected to deliver majority of synergies in years two–three.

Negative Updates

Cheney (Channing Brothers) Integration Costs and OpEx Overruns

Integration and infrastructure investments (new 350k sq ft facility in Florence, 42k sq ft in Saint Cloud, manufacturing expansions and public-company conversions) produced higher-than-expected operating expenses, creating EBITDA hurdles that management expects to persist into Q3 and normalize with synergies late year two into year three.

Commodity Deflation Impacting Margins

Deflation in cheese and poultry depressed margins in the quarter; overall company cost inflation was ~4.5%, but foodservice inflation was only 1.8% due to notable cheese and poultry deflation, resulting in a near-term negative margin impact given the company over-indexes in those categories.

Theater Channel Weakness

Theatre sales declined over 30% in the quarter, representing approximately a $50 million drag on overall specialty sales and contributing to softness in that segment.

Adjusted EPS Flat and Below-Table Pressures

Adjusted diluted EPS was flat year-over-year at $0.98; reported EPS impacted by higher interest expense (driven by increased finance lease costs) and a higher effective tax rate of 28.8% versus 25.2% last year.

Weather and Short-Term Demand Disruptions

Recent winter storms materially impacted February activity and were contemplated in Q3 guidance; industry foot traffic decelerated with December down ~3.5%, contributing to softer sales per location late in the quarter.

Near-Term Guidance Pressure

Q3 guidance contemplates net sales of $16.0–$16.3 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $390–$410 million, reflecting continued Cheney-related OpEx, cheese/poultry deflation, specialty pressure, and weather impacts — a downward adjustment in cadence relative to prior expectations for the year.

Company Guidance

Management updated Q3 guidance to net sales of $16.0–$16.3 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $390–$410 million, and narrowed full‑year fiscal 2026 targets to $67.25–$68.25 billion of sales and $1.875–$1.975 billion of adjusted EBITDA; the outlook assumes continued cheese and poultry deflation, investment related to Cheney capacity onboarding, a difficult specialty environment and recent winter‑storm impacts, and expects a very modest sequential decline in net interest expense and a 2026 tax rate near its historical average. They reiterated full‑year CapEx of ~70 basis points of net revenue and reiterated their three‑year fiscal‑2028 targets of $73–$75 billion in sales and $2.3–$2.5 billion in adjusted EBITDA, noting as context Q2 trailing metrics of $451 million adjusted EBITDA, 5.2% net sales growth, 3.4% total company case growth (5.3% organic independent restaurant cases; 6.3% convenience organic case gain), $456 million of operating cash flow through six months and $264 million of FCF.

Performance Food Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Solid multi-year revenue growth and meaningfully improved profitability versus 2021–2022, supported by strong operating and free cash flow generation. Offsetting this, the business remains structurally low-margin with some TTM margin softening, and leverage has increased with higher total debt, raising sensitivity to execution and funding conditions.

Income Statement

Positive

Revenue expanded steadily from $30.4B (2021) to $63.3B (2025 annual) and $65.8B in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), supporting a solid growth profile for a distributor. Profitability improved meaningfully versus 2021–2022 (net margin rising from ~0.1–0.2% to ~0.5–0.7%), but margins remain structurally thin and the TTM view shows some compression versus the latest annual period (lower EBITDA and EBIT margins). Net income in TTM is slightly above the latest annual level, but overall earnings power is still sensitive given the low margin structure.

Balance Sheet

Neutral

The balance sheet shows moderate-to-elevated leverage: debt-to-equity is ~1.79 in 2025 annual and ~1.72 in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), higher than 2023–2024 levels and indicating increased reliance on debt funding. Equity has grown over time (from ~$2.1B in 2021 to ~$4.5–$4.6B in 2025/TTM), which helps absorb risk, but total debt has also risen notably (to ~$8.9B in TTM). Returns on equity improved substantially from very low levels in 2021–2022 to mid-to-high single digits in 2024–2025, though still below the ~10% seen in 2023–2024.

Cash Flow

Positive

Cash generation is a clear positive, with operating cash flow improving from $65M (2021) to ~$1.21B (2025 annual) and ~$1.29B in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). Free cash flow is consistently positive since 2022 and strong in the most recent periods ($704M in 2025 annual; $793M in TTM), including a sharp TTM rebound in free cash flow growth versus the prior annual period. However, free cash flow remains below reported net income (about ~0.58x in 2025 annual and ~0.62x in TTM), suggesting working-capital or reinvestment needs continue to absorb a meaningful portion of earnings.

Breakdown	TTM	Jun 2025	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	65.77B	63.30B	58.28B	57.25B	50.89B	30.40B
Gross Profit	7.81B	7.42B	6.58B	6.25B	5.26B	3.53B
EBITDA	1.64B	1.54B	1.39B	1.26B	812.80M	546.00M
Net Income	345.10M	340.20M	435.90M	397.20M	112.50M	40.70M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	18.18B	17.88B	13.39B	12.50B	12.38B	7.85B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	41.00M	78.50M	20.00M	12.70M	11.60M	11.10M
Total Debt	7.99B	8.00B	4.98B	4.74B	5.00B	3.00B
Total Liabilities	13.53B	13.41B	9.27B	8.75B	9.08B	5.74B
Stockholders Equity	4.65B	4.47B	4.13B	3.75B	3.30B	2.11B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	792.70M	704.10M	767.40M	562.40M	61.00M	-124.20M
Operating Cash Flow	1.29B	1.21B	1.16B	832.10M	276.50M	64.60M
Investing Cash Flow	-603.90M	-3.09B	-682.70M	-294.60M	-1.86B	-199.80M
Financing Cash Flow	-652.40M	1.94B	-472.60M	-536.20M	1.58B	-274.40M

Performance Food Group Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price97.06

Price Trends

50DMA

93.61

Positive

100DMA

95.43

Positive

200DMA

95.67

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

0.78

Negative

RSI

53.99

Neutral

STOCH

43.06

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PFGC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 97.06 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 95.15, above the 50-day MA of 93.61, and above the 200-day MA of 95.67, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.78 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.99 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 43.06 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PFGC.

Performance Food Group Risk Analysis

Performance Food Group disclosed 34 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Performance Food Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Performance Food Group Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (62)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
USFD	70 Outperform	$21.31B	32.86	15.30%	―	4.80%	3.49%
CHEF	69 Neutral	$2.91B	42.51	12.67%	―	8.88%	54.12%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
SYY	62 Neutral	$43.66B	24.52	83.64%	2.84%	2.92%	-4.06%
PFGC	57 Neutral	$15.25B	44.07	7.75%	―	10.55%	-23.38%
UNFI	52 Neutral	$2.33B	-22.92	-6.37%	―	1.45%	-5.49%

* Consumer Defensive Sector Average

Performance Comparison

PFGC

Performance Food Group

97.06

14.06

16.94%

SYY

Sysco

91.16

17.53

23.81%

CHEF

The Chefs' Warehouse

71.39

9.34

15.05%

UNFI

United Natural Foods

38.21

9.13

31.40%

USFD

US Foods Holding

96.61

26.50

37.80%

Performance Food Group Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing

Performance Food Group Prices New Senior Notes Offering

Positive

Feb 9, 2026

On February 9, 2026, Performance Food Group Company announced that its indirect wholly owned subsidiary, Performance Food Group, Inc., priced a $1.06 billion offering of 5.625% senior notes due 2034, to be sold to qualified institutional buyers under Rule 144A and certain non-U.S. investors under Regulation S. The company expects the deal to close on February 19, 2026, with the notes guaranteed by its parent PFGC, Inc. and key domestic subsidiaries.

Performance Food Group plans to use the net proceeds, alongside borrowings under its revolving credit facility, to redeem all outstanding 5.500% senior notes due 2027 and cover related fees and expenses. The transaction effectively extends the company’s debt maturities and refines its capital structure, with implications for interest costs and balance sheet flexibility in a sector characterized by thin margins, economic sensitivity and ongoing investment needs in technology and operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (PFGC) stock is a Buy with a $126.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Performance Food Group stock, see the PFGC Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing

Performance Food Group Announces New Senior Notes Offering

Neutral

Feb 9, 2026

On February 9, 2026, Performance Food Group Company said its indirect wholly owned subsidiary, Performance Food Group, Inc., plans to issue $1.06 billion of senior notes due 2034 in a private offering to qualified institutional buyers and certain non-U.S. investors. The notes will carry guarantees from the parent, PFGC, Inc., and its material domestic restricted subsidiaries, strengthening creditor protection across the group’s U.S. operating structure.

PFG intends to use the net proceeds, together with borrowings under its revolving credit facility, to redeem all of the issuer’s outstanding 5.500% senior notes due 2027 and cover related fees and expenses. The transaction, if completed as planned, would effectively refinance near-term debt maturities, extend the company’s debt profile and could enhance financial flexibility, although the impact on overall leverage and interest costs will depend on final pricing and market conditions.

The most recent analyst rating on (PFGC) stock is a Buy with a $126.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Performance Food Group stock, see the PFGC Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes

Performance Food Group Announces CEO Succession and Transition

Positive

Dec 18, 2025

On December 18, 2025, Performance Food Group announced a leadership succession in which long-time Chairman and CEO George L. Holm will retire from the chief executive role and transition to Executive Chair of the board effective January 1, 2026, while Scott E. McPherson, currently president and chief operating officer, will become CEO and join the board as its 14th member on the same date. The move, described as the result of multi-year succession planning, keeps Holm focused on M&A, key customer relationships and strategic oversight, and elevates McPherson, a former Core-Mark CEO with more than 30 years’ industry experience, who played a central role in shaping PFG’s strategy and overseeing its core segments. In conjunction with the change, the board approved a substantial new compensation package for McPherson, including a higher base salary and performance-oriented equity awards tied to relative total shareholder return, while reducing Holm’s pay to reflect his new role, signaling a carefully managed transition designed to maintain strategic continuity and support the company’s growth and value-creation objectives for shareholders and other stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (PFGC) stock is a Buy with a $120.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Performance Food Group stock, see the PFGC Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions

Performance Food Group Ends Talks with US Foods

Neutral

Nov 24, 2025

On November 24, 2025, Performance Food Group announced the mutual termination of an information sharing process with US Foods, deciding not to pursue a potential business combination. The decision followed a detailed evaluation of regulatory considerations and synergies, with PFG’s board concluding that focusing on its standalone strategic plan would best serve long-term stockholder value. PFG reiterated its fiscal 2026 financial outlook, expecting significant revenue and profit growth, supported by strong first-quarter results.

The most recent analyst rating on (PFGC) stock is a Buy with a $116.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Performance Food Group stock, see the PFGC Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings

Performance Food Group Holds 2025 Annual Stockholder Meeting

Neutral

Nov 19, 2025

On November 19, 2025, Performance Food Group Company held its 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders where key decisions were made. Stockholders elected directors for a one-year term and ratified Deloitte & Touche LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for fiscal 2026. Additionally, an advisory vote approved the compensation of the company’s named executive officers.

The most recent analyst rating on (PFGC) stock is a Buy with a $116.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Performance Food Group stock, see the PFGC Stock Forecast page.

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 11, 2026