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Performance Food Group (PFGC)
NYSE:PFGC

Performance Food Group (PFGC) AI Stock Analysis

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PFGC

Performance Food Group

(NYSE:PFGC)

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Neutral 65 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$98.00
▲(10.83% Upside)
Performance Food Group's overall score reflects strong earnings growth and strategic corporate developments. However, the stock's high valuation and technical indicators suggest caution. The company's financial performance shows potential risks due to high leverage and declining free cash flow.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Consistent revenue growth indicates strong market demand and effective sales strategies, enhancing long-term financial stability.
Leadership Transition
The planned leadership transition ensures strategic continuity and leverages McPherson's experience to drive future growth.
Market Expansion
Expanding distribution channels strengthens market presence and supports sustained revenue growth across segments.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
High leverage can increase financial risk and limit the company's ability to invest in growth opportunities.
Declining Free Cash Flow
Reduced free cash flow may constrain the company's ability to fund operations and strategic initiatives.
Operational Challenges
Operational inefficiencies can erode margins and hinder the company's ability to maintain competitive pricing.

Performance Food Group (PFGC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Performance Food Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionPerformance Food Group Company, through its subsidiaries, markets and distributes food and food-related products in the United States. It operates through three segments: Foodservice, Vistar, and Convenience. The company offers a range of frozen foods, groceries, candy, snacks, beverages, cigarettes, and other tobacco products; beef, pork, poultry, and seafood; and health and beauty care products. It also sells disposables, cleaning and kitchen supplies, and related products. In addition, the company offers value-added services, such as product selection and procurement, menu development, and operational strategy. It serves independent and chain restaurants, schools, business and industry locations, hospitals, vending distributors, office coffee service distributors, retailers, convenience stores, theaters, hospitality providers, concessionaires, airport gift shops, college bookstores, corrections facilities, and impulse locations, as well as franchises and other institutional customers. Performance Food Group Company was founded in 1885 and is headquartered in Richmond, Virginia.
How the Company Makes MoneyPerformance Food Group generates revenue primarily through the distribution of food and related products to the foodservice industry. The company's revenue model is built on selling a wide variety of products, including meat, seafood, dairy, produce, and dry food items, to a diverse customer base that includes independent restaurants, chains, and institutional clients. Key revenue streams include direct sales to customers, as well as partnerships with major suppliers and manufacturers, allowing for a robust inventory of products. Additionally, PFGC benefits from value-added services such as menu planning, marketing support, and logistics solutions, which enhance customer loyalty and drive repeat business. The company's strategic acquisitions and expansion into new markets also play a significant role in boosting revenue and market share.

Performance Food Group Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 05, 2025
(Q1-2026)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
PFG reported a strong start to fiscal year 2026 with notable growth across its operating segments and raised its sales guidance for the fiscal year. However, the company faces challenges in certain Specialty and Foodservice areas and some recent slowdown in independent restaurant growth.
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Start to Fiscal Year 2026
Performance Food Group (PFG) reported double-digit top line growth, acceleration in independent restaurant case volume, and gross margin expansion. The company's diversified approach continues to yield market share gains.
Foodservice Segment Growth
The Foodservice segment achieved a 15.6% increase in total cases and an 18.8% increase in sales for the quarter. Organic independent case growth was 6.3%, driven by a 5.8% increase in new customers year-over-year.
Convenience Segment Expansion
Core-Mark began shipping to hundreds of additional Love's Travel centers, contributing to a 3.5% sales growth in the Convenience segment. The segment also saw strong performance in non-combustible nicotine products.
Specialty Segment Profitability
Despite a challenging market, the Specialty segment achieved 13% adjusted EBITDA growth due to improved operating leverage and efficiencies.
Raised Sales Guidance for Fiscal Year
PFG increased its sales target for the full fiscal year to a range of $67.5 billion to $68.5 billion, reflecting confidence in continued performance.
Negative Updates
Challenges in the Specialty Segment
The Specialty segment experienced a 0.7% decline in net sales due to a challenging quarter for theater and value segments.
Operational Challenges in Foodservice
The Foodservice segment faced higher operating expenses due to investments in brick-and-mortar and inefficiencies in new distribution centers.
Slowdown in Independent Restaurant Growth
Independent restaurant case growth experienced some recent volatility, with a slight decrease in momentum attributed to the government shutdown and regional market slowdowns.
Company Guidance
During the PFG Fiscal Year Q1 2026 earnings call, several key metrics and guidance points were highlighted. PFG reported double-digit top-line growth, highlighting a 15.6% increase in total Foodservice cases and a 5.8% increase in new customers year-over-year. The company also noted a gross margin expansion driven by positive mix shifts, low single-digit inflation, and procurement efficiencies. Adjusted EBITDA grew by 16.6% to $480.1 million, with strong contributions from all three operating segments, particularly the Specialty segment, which experienced a 13% adjusted EBITDA growth despite a slight decline in net sales. The company updated its full-year guidance, raising its net sales projection to between $67.5 billion and $68.5 billion and maintaining an adjusted EBITDA target of $1.9 billion to $2 billion. They also reported a 6% increase in Foodservice salesforce headcount and highlighted significant new account wins in the Convenience segment, including partnerships with Love's Travel Stops and RaceTrac locations.

Performance Food Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Performance Food Group demonstrates steady revenue growth and stable gross margins, indicating operational efficiency. However, the low net profit margin and high leverage present potential risks. Cash flow management needs attention due to declining free cash flow, which could affect future financial flexibility.
Income Statement
Performance Food Group shows a consistent revenue growth trajectory with a TTM revenue growth rate of 2.62%. Gross profit margins have remained stable around 11.8%, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin is relatively low at 0.50%, suggesting room for improvement in profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins are modest, reflecting the competitive nature of the food distribution industry.
Balance Sheet
The company's debt-to-equity ratio is relatively high at 1.82, indicating significant leverage, which could pose risks if not managed carefully. Return on equity is moderate at 7.88%, showing decent returns for shareholders. The equity ratio stands at 24.93%, suggesting a balanced approach to financing through equity and debt.
Cash Flow
Operating cash flow is positive, but the free cash flow has seen a decline of 25.72% in the TTM period, which could impact future investments and debt servicing. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.22, indicating a moderate conversion of income to cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.52, showing that a portion of earnings is being converted into free cash flow.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue64.96B63.30B58.28B57.25B50.89B30.40B
Gross Profit7.67B7.42B6.58B6.25B5.26B3.53B
EBITDA1.59B1.54B1.39B1.26B812.80M546.00M
Net Income325.80M340.20M435.90M397.20M112.50M40.70M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets18.35B17.88B13.39B12.50B12.38B7.85B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments38.10M78.50M20.00M12.70M11.60M11.10M
Total Debt8.30B8.00B4.98B4.74B5.00B3.00B
Total Liabilities13.78B13.41B9.27B8.75B9.08B5.74B
Stockholders Equity4.57B4.47B4.13B3.75B3.30B2.11B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow523.00M704.10M767.40M562.40M61.00M-124.20M
Operating Cash Flow1.01B1.21B1.16B832.10M276.50M64.60M
Investing Cash Flow-2.50B-3.09B-682.70M-294.60M-1.86B-199.80M
Financing Cash Flow1.48B1.94B-472.60M-536.20M1.58B-274.40M

Performance Food Group Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price88.42
Price Trends
50DMA
93.84
Negative
100DMA
98.30
Negative
200DMA
92.88
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-1.95
Positive
RSI
39.28
Neutral
STOCH
27.84
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PFGC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 88.42 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 91.20, below the 50-day MA of 93.84, and below the 200-day MA of 92.88, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.95 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.28 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 27.84 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for PFGC.

Performance Food Group Risk Analysis

Performance Food Group disclosed 34 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Performance Food Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Performance Food Group Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
74
Outperform
$16.71B31.2012.29%4.80%3.49%
72
Outperform
$2.46B34.9214.12%8.88%54.12%
71
Outperform
$35.57B19.9084.89%2.84%2.92%-4.06%
65
Neutral
$13.87B42.517.42%10.55%-23.38%
62
Neutral
$20.33B14.63-3.31%3.23%1.93%-12.26%
52
Neutral
$2.01B-19.79-6.37%1.45%-5.49%
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
PFGC
Performance Food Group
88.42
3.78
4.47%
SYY
Sysco
74.27
2.57
3.58%
CHEF
The Chefs' Warehouse
60.39
10.21
20.35%
UNFI
United Natural Foods
33.00
5.31
19.18%
USFD
US Foods Holding
74.97
8.61
12.97%

Performance Food Group Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Performance Food Group Announces CEO Succession and Transition
Positive
Dec 18, 2025

On December 18, 2025, Performance Food Group announced a leadership succession in which long-time Chairman and CEO George L. Holm will retire from the chief executive role and transition to Executive Chair of the board effective January 1, 2026, while Scott E. McPherson, currently president and chief operating officer, will become CEO and join the board as its 14th member on the same date. The move, described as the result of multi-year succession planning, keeps Holm focused on M&A, key customer relationships and strategic oversight, and elevates McPherson, a former Core-Mark CEO with more than 30 years’ industry experience, who played a central role in shaping PFG’s strategy and overseeing its core segments. In conjunction with the change, the board approved a substantial new compensation package for McPherson, including a higher base salary and performance-oriented equity awards tied to relative total shareholder return, while reducing Holm’s pay to reflect his new role, signaling a carefully managed transition designed to maintain strategic continuity and support the company’s growth and value-creation objectives for shareholders and other stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (PFGC) stock is a Buy with a $120.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Performance Food Group stock, see the PFGC Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Performance Food Group Ends Talks with US Foods
Neutral
Nov 24, 2025

On November 24, 2025, Performance Food Group announced the mutual termination of an information sharing process with US Foods, deciding not to pursue a potential business combination. The decision followed a detailed evaluation of regulatory considerations and synergies, with PFG’s board concluding that focusing on its standalone strategic plan would best serve long-term stockholder value. PFG reiterated its fiscal 2026 financial outlook, expecting significant revenue and profit growth, supported by strong first-quarter results.

The most recent analyst rating on (PFGC) stock is a Buy with a $116.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Performance Food Group stock, see the PFGC Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Performance Food Group Holds 2025 Annual Stockholder Meeting
Neutral
Nov 19, 2025

On November 19, 2025, Performance Food Group Company held its 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders where key decisions were made. Stockholders elected directors for a one-year term and ratified Deloitte & Touche LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for fiscal 2026. Additionally, an advisory vote approved the compensation of the company’s named executive officers.

The most recent analyst rating on (PFGC) stock is a Buy with a $116.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Performance Food Group stock, see the PFGC Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Dec 19, 2025