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US Foods Holding (USFD)
NYSE:USFD
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US Foods Holding
(NYSE:USFD)
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$112.00
▲(16.51% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/14/26
The score is driven by improving fundamentals and solid cash generation, reinforced by confident FY2026 guidance and execution highlights from the earnings call. Technicals are supportive but appear overheated, and valuation (P/E ~37) is a meaningful constraint.
Positive Factors
Market position & share gains
Consistent independent-restaurant share gains across 19 quarters show durable commercial strength in a target segment. Repeated account wins and above-market volume growth build long-term revenue resilience and deepen customer relationships, supporting pricing, cross-sell and lower churn over multiple years.
Improving cash generation
Material and sustained improvements in operating cash flow and positive free cash flow since 2020 provide durable capacity to service debt, fund tuck-in M&A, repurchase shares and invest in operations. Strong cash generation underpins balance-sheet repair and multi-year capital allocation flexibility.
Tech & distribution innovation
Deploying AI-enabled ordering and scaling Pronto small-truck delivery creates structural advantages: higher salesforce productivity, faster fulfilment, and differentiated service for urban/independent customers. These capabilities improve unit economics and make customer relationships stickier over time.
Negative Factors
Meaningful leverage
A debt-heavy capital structure in a low-margin industry reduces financial flexibility. Ongoing leverage limits the firm's ability to absorb shocks, pursue larger M&A or dramatically accelerate buybacks without stressing liquidity, especially if cash flow weakens from volume or margin swings.
Naturally thin margins
Very narrow net margins leave earnings and free cash flow highly sensitive to small cost, volume, or inflation moves. Structural low-margin dynamics constrain reinvestment and make sustained margin expansion difficult, increasing execution importance for productivity programs to protect returns.
Labor & execution risk
Authorized strikes and workforce demands create persistent operational risk for distribution-centric operations. Labor disputes or higher labor costs can disrupt deliveries, raise operating expense, and delay productivity initiatives (including sales compensation changes), pressuring margins and service levels over months.
US Foods Holding (USFD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$21.29B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)3.11M
Price to Earnings (P/E)32.8
Beta (1Y)0.73
Revenue Growth4.80%
EPS Growth3.49%
CountryUS
Employees30,000
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryFood Distribution
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.04
Shares Outstanding220,541,960
10 Day Avg. Volume3,513,876
30 Day Avg. Volume3,106,166
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.57
Price to Book (P/B)4.03
Price to Sales (P/S)0.44
P/FCF Ratio18.08
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.29
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.70
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda15.74
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$108.69Price Target Upside13.07% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering13
EPS Forecast (FY)4.77
Revenue Forecast (FY)$41.63B
US Foods Holding Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionUS Foods Holding Corp., through its subsidiary, US Foods, Inc., markets and distributes fresh, frozen, and dry food and non-food products to foodservice customers in the United States. The company's customers include independently owned single and multi-unit restaurants, regional concepts, national restaurant chains, hospitals, nursing homes, hotels and motels, country clubs, government and military organizations, colleges and universities, and retail locations. As of July 06, 2022, it operated 70 broadline facilities; and 80 cash and carry locations. The company was formerly known as USF Holding Corp. and changed its name to US Foods Holding Corp. in February 2016. US Foods Holding Corp. was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Rosemont, Illinois.
How the Company Makes MoneyUS Foods generates revenue primarily through the distribution of food and related products to foodservice customers. The company's revenue model is based on wholesale sales, where it purchases food products from manufacturers and sells them to its customers at a markup. Key revenue streams include sales of fresh produce, meats, dairy products, and dry goods, as well as non-food items such as cleaning supplies and kitchen equipment. Additionally, US Foods offers value-added services such as menu planning, culinary support, and supply chain management, which help drive customer loyalty and repeat business. Significant partnerships with manufacturers and suppliers also contribute to its earnings, allowing US Foods to offer competitive pricing and a diverse product range.
US Foods Holding Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 12, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call showcased strong, broad-based execution in FY2025 with record adjusted EBITDA and double-digit adjusted EPS growth, meaningful cost savings and margin expansion, accelerated share gains in target customer types, solid capital returns and technology/AI progress. Near-term headwinds—primarily weather disruptions, softer chain traffic and ongoing macro/food inflation dynamics—create some quarter-to-quarter volatility (notably Q1 2026), and the multiyear sales compensation transition introduces execution risk. Overall, the positives (record performance, upgraded guidance, cost savings upside and robust growth levers) substantially outweigh the transitory negatives, leading management to maintain confident full-year guidance.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Adjusted EBITDA and Margin Expansion (FY2025)
Adjusted EBITDA grew 11% to more than $1.9 billion for fiscal 2025, with adjusted EBITDA margin expanding ~30 basis points to a record 4.9% (Q4 margin expanded 35 bps to 5.0%).
Industry-Leading Adjusted EPS Growth
Adjusted diluted EPS increased 26% year-over-year to $3.98 for FY2025 and Q4 adjusted diluted EPS rose 24% to $1.04, driven by EBITDA expansion and share repurchases.
Top-Line Growth and Volume Gains
Net sales grew 4.1% to $39.4 billion for FY2025; Q4 net sales increased 3.3% to $9.8 billion. Total case volume grew 0.8% in Q4 (1.2% excluding Freshway).
Independent Restaurants and Target Customer Strength
Independent restaurant case volume grew 4.1% in Q4 (19th consecutive quarter of share gains) and net new independent account growth was ~4.7% in Q4. Healthcare and hospitality grew 2.9% and 3.1% in Q4, respectively.
Material Cost Savings Delivered and Upside Revised
Realized more than $150 million of cost-of-goods savings in 2025 and now expect at least $300 million of COGS savings over the 3-year plan (vs. prior $260M target).
Operational Productivity and Inventory Improvements
Inventory management improvements delivered approximately $40 million in gross profit benefit in 2025 (up from prior $35M estimate); indirect cost savings of ~$45M in 2025 with expectation of >$100M by 2027. Adjusted gross profit per case increased $0.23 (2.9%) in Q4.
Digital & AI Enhancements
Expanded MOXe platform with embedded AI (AI-driven ordering from photos/PDFs/handwritten notes) and maintained technology leadership to drive customer ease and salesforce productivity.
Pronto Growth and New Offerings
Pronto small-truck delivery live in 46 markets, generated over $1 billion in sales in 2025; Pronto Next Day live in 24 markets with plans to add ~10 markets in 2026.
Capital Allocation and Balance Sheet Strength
Repurchased ~11.9 million shares for $934 million in 2025 (approx. $930M cited elsewhere) and completed two tuck-in acquisitions for $131 million. Generated nearly $1.4 billion in operating cash flow and ended year at 2.7x net leverage (within 2.0-3.0x target).
Safety and Corporate Responsibility
Injury and accident frequency rates improved 16% year-over-year (after a 20% improvement in 2024). Donated more than $12.5 million and over 5 million pounds of food (~4 million meals).
Upgraded Credit Rating
Moody's upgraded the corporate credit rating one notch to Ba1 based on solid operating performance and improved credit metrics.
FY2026 Guidance
Provided FY2026 guidance: net sales growth 4%–6%, total case growth 2.5%–4.5%, independent case growth 4%–7%, adjusted EBITDA growth 9%–13%, and adjusted diluted EPS growth 18%–24% (includes a 53rd week adding ~1%).
Negative Updates
Near-Term Weather and Operational Disruptions
Severe winter storms and related closures (Dec and Jan/Feb) and the government shutdown negatively impacted Q4/Q1 volumes. There were ~35% more distribution center closure days in early 2026 versus all of Q1 2025, pressuring Q1 volume and costs.
Chain Restaurant Weakness
Industry chain restaurant foot traffic was down 2.8% in Q4 (Black Box); US Foods' chain business declined ~3.4% in Q4, reflecting macro headwinds and a strategic exit in chains.
Inflation and Mix Headwinds
Q4 food cost inflation and mix impacted sales by ~2.5%. Management noted disinflation effects in Q4 that had a negative near-term impact on gross profit comparisons.
Sales Compensation Transition Timeline and Execution Risk
Transition to a 100% variable commission plan for local sellers is being rolled out mid-2026 but may take 2–3 years for majority adoption; such a multiyear change introduces execution complexity and potential short-term productivity/attrition risk (though early feedback is positive).
Q1 Short-Term Profitability Impact
Due to weather-related disruptions, first quarter adjusted EBITDA is expected to be only upper single-digit growth versus prior year despite full-year guidance remaining intact.
Soft Macro/Traffic Creates Uncertainty
Management assumes a largely unchanged macro environment for FY2026; downside in consumer foot traffic or prolonged softness could pressure volumes and push results toward the lower end of guidance.
Company Guidance
US Foods guided fiscal 2026 assuming a 53rd week that adds roughly +1% to total case growth and adjusted EBITDA, and expects net sales to grow 4%–6% driven by total case growth of 2.5%–4.5% (independent case growth 4%–7%); sales inflation/mix of about 1.5%; adjusted EBITDA growth of 9%–13%; and adjusted diluted EPS growth of 18%–24%. Management said Q1 adjusted EBITDA should be upper-single-digit growth (noting ~35% more DC closure days year-to-date vs. prior Q1 from severe weather), reiterated the 2025–27 plan to generate >$4.0 billion of cumulative operating cash flow, noted ~ $1.1 billion remaining on the share repurchase authorization, and finished FY25 at 2.7x net leverage (inside a 2.0–3.0x target).US Foods Holding Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Strong multi-year improvement: revenue grew to $39.4B (2025) with net income at $676M, margins improved, and free cash flow remained positive (~$959M in 2025). Offsets include meaningful leverage for a low-margin business (debt-heavy capital structure) and a notable 2025 slowdown in revenue/FCF momentum.Income Statement
Revenue has expanded steadily from $22.9B (2020) to $39.4B (2025), and profitability has materially improved from a net loss in 2020 to $676M net income in 2025. Gross margin has been stable-to-improving (~15.8% in 2021 to ~17.4% in 2025), and net margin has widened to ~1.7% in 2025 from ~0.6% in 2021. Key watch-outs are the naturally thin profitability profile of food distribution and a sharp slowdown in reported revenue growth in 2025 versus prior years (despite higher earnings).74
Positive
Balance Sheet
Leverage is meaningful but broadly stable: total debt is ~$5.2B in 2025 with debt running around ~1.1–1.3x equity across the period. Equity has drifted down from ~$4.75B (2023) to ~$4.31B (2025), which limits balance-sheet flexibility even as earnings improved. Returns on equity have strengthened (to ~15.7% in 2025 from ~3.8% in 2021), but the capital structure remains debt-heavy for a low-margin business.61
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation has improved versus earlier years, with operating cash flow rising to ~$1.37B in 2025 (from ~$0.42B in 2021) and free cash flow reaching ~$959M in 2025. Free cash flow has been consistently positive since 2020, which supports debt service and reinvestment. Offsetting this, free cash flow growth turned sharply negative in 2025, and free cash flow covers only about ~70% of net income in 2025, suggesting working-capital/other cash demands remain an ongoing swing factor.68
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 39.42B | 37.88B | 35.60B | 34.06B | 29.49B |
| Gross Profit | 6.86B | 6.53B | 6.15B | 5.49B | 4.66B |
| EBITDA | 1.79B | 1.40B | 1.40B | 988.00M | 805.00M |
| Net Income | 676.00M | 494.00M | 506.00M | 265.00M | 164.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 14.31B | 13.44B | 13.19B | 12.77B | 12.52B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 41.00M | 59.00M | 269.00M | 211.00M | 148.00M |
| Total Debt | 6.03B | 5.43B | 5.20B | 5.31B | 5.47B |
| Total Liabilities | 10.01B | 8.91B | 8.44B | 8.28B | 8.25B |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.31B | 4.53B | 4.75B | 4.50B | 4.27B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 959.00M | 833.00M | 831.00M | 500.00M | 145.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.37B | 1.17B | 1.14B | 765.00M | 419.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -497.00M | -552.00M | -495.00M | -255.00M | -262.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -890.00M | -831.00M | -587.00M | -447.00M | -837.00M |
US Foods Holding Technical Analysis
Positive
96.13
Price Trends
83.02
Positive
78.86
Positive
78.58
Positive
Market Momentum
4.38
Negative
66.32
Neutral
56.92
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For USFD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 96.13 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 90.47, above the 50-day MA of 83.02, and above the 200-day MA of 78.58, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 4.38 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.32 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 56.92 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for USFD.
US Foods Holding Risk Analysis
US Foods Holding disclosed 32 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. US Foods Holding reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
US Foods Holding Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $21.29B | 32.84 | 15.30% | ― | 4.80% | 3.49% | |
69 Neutral | $2.95B | 43.05 | 12.67% | ― | 8.88% | 54.12% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
62 Neutral | $43.04B | 24.05 | 83.64% | 2.84% | 2.92% | -4.06% | |
57 Neutral | $15.29B | 44.19 | 7.75% | ― | 10.55% | -23.38% | |
52 Neutral | $2.35B | -23.11 | -6.37% | ― | 1.45% | -5.49% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
USFD
US Foods Holding
96.55
26.33
37.50%
SYY
Sysco
89.87
17.46
24.11%
CHEF
The Chefs' Warehouse
72.43
8.75
13.75%
UNFI
United Natural Foods
38.52
6.06
18.67%
PFGC
Performance Food Group
97.31
15.16
18.45%
US Foods Holding Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackM&A Transactions
US Foods Ends Merger Talks, Announces Share Buyback
Positive
Nov 24, 2025
On November 24, 2025, US Foods Holding Corp. announced the termination of its information-sharing process with Performance Food Group, deciding not to pursue a merger. The company reaffirmed its fiscal year 2025 guidance and long-range plan for 2025 to 2027, emphasizing its commitment to standalone growth and shareholder value. Additionally, US Foods revealed plans for a $250 million accelerated share repurchase agreement and a new $1 billion share repurchase program, reflecting confidence in its future and operational cash flow.
The most recent analyst rating on (USFD) stock is a Buy with a $85.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on US Foods Holding stock, see the USFD Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.