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US Foods Holding (USFD)
NYSE:USFD
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US Foods Holding
(NYSE:USFD)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$82.00
▲(7.72% Upside)
US Foods Holding's strong financial performance and positive earnings call sentiment are the primary drivers of its score. However, technical indicators suggest a bearish trend, and the high P/E ratio indicates potential overvaluation. Continued focus on strategic initiatives and cost management will be crucial for future growth.
Positive Factors
Market Share Gains
Consistent market share gains in key segments like independent restaurants and healthcare indicate strong competitive positioning and customer loyalty, which are crucial for long-term growth and stability.
Pronto Program Expansion
The expansion of the Pronto program reflects strategic growth initiatives that enhance distribution capabilities and revenue potential, supporting long-term business scalability and customer reach.
Cost Savings Initiatives
Effective cost savings initiatives enhance profitability by reducing expenses, allowing the company to reinvest in growth opportunities and maintain competitive pricing, strengthening its market position.
Negative Factors
Chain Restaurant Volume Decline
Declining chain restaurant volumes can affect overall revenue growth and market presence, highlighting potential vulnerabilities in the company's customer base and necessitating strategic adjustments.
Limited Industry Traffic Growth
Limited growth in industry traffic suggests challenges in increasing customer visits, which may impact sales growth and require enhanced marketing or service strategies to drive customer engagement.
Inflationary Pressures
Ongoing inflationary pressures can erode profit margins and increase operational costs, necessitating effective pricing strategies and cost management to sustain profitability and competitiveness.
US Foods Holding (USFD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$17.14B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.97M
Price to Earnings (P/E)32.5
Beta (1Y)0.76
Revenue Growth5.32%
EPS Growth11.65%
CountryUS
Employees30,000
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryFood Distribution
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.19
Shares Outstanding225,171,620
10 Day Avg. Volume1,657,639
30 Day Avg. Volume1,970,110
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-17.38
Price to Book (P/B)3.63
Price to Sales (P/S)0.43
P/FCF Ratio19.72
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.34
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.59
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.41
Enterprise Value/Ebitda15.36
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$92.38Price Target Upside21.36% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
US Foods Holding Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionUS Foods Holding Corp., through its subsidiary, US Foods, Inc., markets and distributes fresh, frozen, and dry food and non-food products to foodservice customers in the United States. The company's customers include independently owned single and multi-unit restaurants, regional concepts, national restaurant chains, hospitals, nursing homes, hotels and motels, country clubs, government and military organizations, colleges and universities, and retail locations. As of July 06, 2022, it operated 70 broadline facilities; and 80 cash and carry locations. The company was formerly known as USF Holding Corp. and changed its name to US Foods Holding Corp. in February 2016. US Foods Holding Corp. was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Rosemont, Illinois.
How the Company Makes MoneyUS Foods generates revenue primarily through the sale of food and related products to foodservice operators. Its revenue model is based on a wholesale distribution model, where the company purchases products from manufacturers and suppliers, then sells them to customers at a markup. Key revenue streams include the sale of fresh and frozen foods, dry goods, and non-food items. Additionally, US Foods has established strategic partnerships with various food manufacturers and suppliers, allowing it to offer exclusive products and competitive pricing. The company also benefits from ancillary services, such as menu development and operational consulting, which enhance customer loyalty and drive additional revenue.
US Foods Holding Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 07, 2025
(Q2-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 06, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
US Foods demonstrated strong financial performance with record-breaking adjusted EBITDA and margin expansion, alongside consistent market share gains and a successful share repurchase program. However, challenges persist with declining chain restaurant volumes and limited industry traffic growth, coupled with ongoing inflationary pressures. The company's strong execution on cost savings and strategic initiatives provides a positive outlook despite these challenges.Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record-Breaking Financial Performance
US Foods delivered record second quarter adjusted EBITDA of $548 million and a record adjusted EBITDA margin of 5.4%, a 40 basis point increase through a combination of top line growth, strong gross profit gains, and disciplined cost management.
Market Share Gains
US Foods gained market share with independent restaurants for the 17th consecutive quarter and with healthcare for the 19th consecutive quarter.
Successful Share Repurchase Program
US Foods repurchased $250 million of shares in the second quarter, with a total of $273 million repurchased year-to-date, and $800 million remaining on the $1 billion program authorized.
Pronto Program Expansion
The Pronto small truck delivery service is expected to deliver over $900 million in sales this year, with projections to reach $1.5 billion in sales by 2027, up from the previously discussed $1 billion.
Significant Cost Savings Initiatives
The strategic vendor management initiative has delivered more than $50 million in year-to-date cost of goods savings, with an expectation to drive more than $110 million for the full year.
Negative Updates
Chain Restaurant Volume Decline
Chain restaurant volume declined 4%, primarily driven by a strategic exit, negatively impacting total chain volume growth by approximately 300 basis points.
Limited Industry Traffic Growth
Restaurant foot traffic remained down 1.1% from the prior year despite sequential improvement and independent restaurant traffic saw only a modest 100 basis point acceleration.
Inflationary Pressures
Food cost inflation and mix impact was 2.9%, with certain categories like eggs and beef showing moderate sequential deflation.
Company Guidance
During the US Foods Holding Corp.'s Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Call, the company provided updated guidance for the fiscal year 2025, reflecting strong performance and strategic execution. The company reported record second quarter adjusted EBITDA of $548 million, with a margin of 5.4%, a 40 basis point increase from the previous year. Year-to-date, the adjusted EBITDA grew by 11%, and adjusted EPS rose by 27%. The company raised the low end of its guidance for adjusted EBITDA growth to 9.5% to 12% and adjusted diluted EPS growth to 19.5% to 23%. The call highlighted significant achievements including a 2.7% independent volume growth, 5% case growth in healthcare, and 2.4% in hospitality. The company also repurchased $250 million in shares during the second quarter, supporting its capital return strategy. Looking forward, US Foods expects continued market share gains, driven by strategic investments and operational efficiencies.US Foods Holding Financial Statement Overview
Summary
US Foods Holding demonstrates solid revenue growth and improving profitability, with effective leverage management. However, challenges in operational efficiency and cash flow management persist. Continued focus on cost control and cash flow optimization will be crucial for sustaining financial health.Income Statement
US Foods Holding has shown strong revenue growth with a TTM increase of 9.74% and consistent gross profit margins around 17%. The net profit margin has improved to 1.43% in the TTM, indicating enhanced profitability. However, the EBIT margin has slightly decreased, suggesting some operational cost pressures.78
Positive
Balance Sheet
The company's debt-to-equity ratio has improved to 1.08 in the TTM, reflecting better leverage management. Return on equity has increased to 12.04%, showcasing effective use of equity to generate profits. However, the equity ratio remains stable, indicating moderate financial stability.72
Positive
Cash Flow
Operating cash flow has increased, but free cash flow growth is negative at -13.92% in the TTM, which could indicate higher capital expenditures or other cash outflows. The free cash flow to net income ratio remains strong at 0.75, suggesting efficient cash generation relative to net income.65
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2019 | Dec 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 38.65B | 37.88B | 35.60B | 34.06B | 25.94B | 24.18B |
| Gross Profit | 6.72B | 6.53B | 6.15B | 5.49B | 4.59B | 4.31B |
| EBITDA | 1.49B | 1.40B | 1.40B | 988.00M | 1.06B | 1.04B |
| Net Income | 553.00M | 494.00M | 506.00M | 265.00M | 385.00M | 407.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 13.79B | 13.44B | 13.19B | 12.77B | 11.29B | 9.19B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 61.00M | 59.00M | 269.00M | 211.00M | 90.00M | 104.00M |
| Total Debt | 5.01B | 5.43B | 5.20B | 5.31B | 5.13B | 3.61B |
| Total Liabilities | 9.16B | 8.91B | 8.44B | 8.28B | 7.58B | 5.96B |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.63B | 4.53B | 4.75B | 4.50B | 3.71B | 3.23B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 932.00M | 833.00M | 831.00M | 500.00M | 502.00M | 374.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.28B | 1.17B | 1.14B | 765.00M | 760.00M | 609.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -389.00M | -552.00M | -495.00M | -255.00M | -1.99B | -232.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.23B | -831.00M | -587.00M | -447.00M | 1.22B | -391.00M |
US Foods Holding Technical Analysis
Negative
76.12
Price Trends
77.33
Negative
78.45
Negative
73.32
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.52
Negative
47.17
Neutral
44.06
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For USFD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 76.12 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 76.21, below the 50-day MA of 77.33, and above the 200-day MA of 73.32, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.52 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.17 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 44.06 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for USFD.
US Foods Holding Risk Analysis
US Foods Holding disclosed 32 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. US Foods Holding reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
US Foods Holding Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $38.24B | 21.41 | 99.08% | 2.63% | 3.21% | -4.03% | |
68 Neutral | $17.14B | 32.54 | 11.48% | ― | 5.32% | 11.65% | |
66 Neutral | $15.87B | 46.54 | 7.91% | ― | 8.61% | -22.16% | |
63 Neutral | $2.37B | 35.89 | 13.64% | ― | 7.90% | 68.05% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
58 Neutral | ― | ― | ― | ― | 1.54% | -134.75% | |
53 Neutral | $2.55B | ― | -7.39% | ― | 2.60% | -3.23% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
USFD
US Foods Holding
76.12
13.90
22.34%
SPTN
SpartanNash Co
26.90
6.31
30.65%
SYY
Sysco
79.91
7.19
9.89%
CHEF
The Chefs' Warehouse
58.15
17.53
43.16%
UNFI
United Natural Foods
42.06
21.62
105.77%
PFGC
Performance Food Group
101.23
18.69
22.64%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.