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US Foods Holding (USFD)
NYSE:USFD
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US Foods Holding
(NYSE:USFD)
Select Model
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Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$85.00
▲(8.05% Upside)
US Foods Holding's overall stock score is driven by strong financial performance and positive earnings call guidance, indicating robust growth prospects. However, technical indicators suggest potential short-term volatility, and the high P/E ratio limits valuation appeal. Challenges in chain restaurant volumes and macroeconomic conditions also pose risks.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Consistent revenue and EBITDA growth indicate strong market demand and effective business strategies, supporting long-term expansion.
Strategic Vendor Management
Effective vendor management reduces costs, enhances margins, and strengthens competitive positioning, contributing to sustainable profitability.
Cash Flow Management
Strong cash flow management ensures liquidity and supports strategic investments, underpinning long-term financial stability and growth.
Negative Factors
Chain Restaurant Volume Decline
Declining volumes in chain restaurants may signal weakening demand in a key segment, potentially impacting future revenue streams.
Challenging Macro Environment
Macroeconomic challenges can affect consumer spending and demand, posing risks to growth and profitability in the near to mid-term.
Moderate Leverage
Moderate leverage limits financial flexibility and could constrain the company's ability to capitalize on growth opportunities or weather downturns.
US Foods Holding (USFD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$17.54B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.03M
Price to Earnings (P/E)32.7
Beta (1Y)0.75
Revenue Growth4.80%
EPS Growth3.49%
CountryUS
Employees30,000
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryFood Distribution
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.07
Shares Outstanding222,941,400
10 Day Avg. Volume2,365,098
30 Day Avg. Volume2,027,345
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-17.38
Price to Book (P/B)3.63
Price to Sales (P/S)0.43
P/FCF Ratio19.72
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.29
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.58
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.31
Enterprise Value/Ebitda15.00
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$92.13Price Target Upside17.11% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)3.94
Revenue Forecast (FY)$39.58B
US Foods Holding Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionUS Foods Holding Corp. is one of the largest foodservice distributors in the United States, serving a diverse customer base that includes restaurants, healthcare facilities, and educational institutions. The company operates through various segments, providing a wide range of products such as fresh meat, produce, canned and frozen foods, and disposable supplies. US Foods is committed to delivering quality products and innovative solutions to its customers, enhancing their operational efficiency and culinary offerings.
How the Company Makes MoneyUS Foods generates revenue primarily through the sale of food and related products to foodservice operators. Its revenue model is based on a wholesale distribution model, where the company purchases products from manufacturers and suppliers, then sells them to customers at a markup. Key revenue streams include the sale of fresh and frozen foods, dry goods, and non-food items. Additionally, US Foods has established strategic partnerships with various food manufacturers and suppliers, allowing it to offer exclusive products and competitive pricing. The company also benefits from ancillary services, such as menu development and operational consulting, which enhance customer loyalty and drive additional revenue.
US Foods Holding Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Nov 06, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
US Foods reported strong growth in independent case volumes, strategic vendor management savings, and successful expansion of the Pronto program. Despite these successes, challenges remained in chain restaurant volumes and macroeconomic conditions, including the impact of the government shutdown. The company remains confident in its ability to execute its strategy and achieve long-term growth targets.Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Financial Performance
For the first 9 months, US Foods delivered 4.4% net sales growth, 10.9% adjusted EBITDA growth, 29 basis points of adjusted EBITDA margin expansion, and 26.7% adjusted EPS growth.
Independent Case Growth
Independent case growth accelerated by 120 basis points from Q2 to Q3, with a 3.9% increase year-over-year, reflecting strong momentum and outperforming the broader market.
Strategic Vendor Management Success
The strategic vendor management initiative is on track to deliver more than $120 million in cost of goods savings for 2025, with private label penetration among core independent restaurant customers growing to over 53%.
Pronto Program Expansion
The Pronto small truck delivery service is expected to deliver approximately $950 million in sales this year, with plans to reach a $1 billion run rate by year-end.
Safety Improvements
Injury and accident rates improved by 16% compared to the same period last year, and over the past 2 years, safety performance improved by 35%.
Negative Updates
Chain Restaurant Volume Decline
Chain restaurant volume declined by 2.4% year-over-year, primarily due to a strategic exit and remained below prior year levels despite sequential improvement.
Challenging Macro Environment
Continued lower restaurant foot traffic and a dynamic macro environment led to a tightening of total case volume growth guidance to 1% to 2%.
Government Shutdown Impact
The uncertainty surrounding the government shutdown has created choppiness in the market, particularly impacting markets with a high government presence.
Company Guidance
During the US Foods Holding Corporation Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Call, guidance was updated to reflect strong performance and future expectations. The company increased its adjusted EBITDA growth projection to 10% to 12% and adjusted diluted EPS growth to 24% to 26% for fiscal year 2025. This was attributed to a 4.8% increase in net sales and a 11% rise in adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter, driven by a 1.1% case volume growth and a 3.7% impact from food cost inflation and mix. Further, the company highlighted a 4.4% net sales growth and 10.9% adjusted EBITDA growth for the first nine months of the fiscal year. Market share gains were evident, with a 3.9% increase in independent restaurant case volume and strong contributions from the healthcare and hospitality sectors. The company also reported a 26.7% increase in adjusted EPS and a 29 basis point expansion in adjusted EBITDA margin, reinforcing long-term value creation goals.US Foods Holding Financial Statement Overview
Summary
US Foods Holding shows strong revenue growth and improving profitability with effective leverage management. However, operational efficiency and cash flow management challenges persist, necessitating focus on cost control and cash flow optimization.Income Statement
US Foods Holding has shown strong revenue growth with a TTM increase of 9.74% and consistent gross profit margins around 17%. The net profit margin has improved to 1.43% in the TTM, indicating enhanced profitability. However, the EBIT margin has slightly decreased, suggesting some operational cost pressures.75
Positive
Balance Sheet
The company's debt-to-equity ratio has improved to 1.08 in the TTM, reflecting better leverage management. Return on equity has increased to 12.04%, showcasing effective use of equity to generate profits. However, the equity ratio remains stable, indicating moderate financial stability.70
Positive
Cash Flow
Operating cash flow has increased, but free cash flow growth is negative at -13.92% in the TTM, which could indicate higher capital expenditures or other cash outflows. The free cash flow to net income ratio remains strong at 0.75, suggesting efficient cash generation relative to net income.80
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 39.12B | 37.88B | 35.60B | 34.06B | 29.49B | 22.89B |
| Gross Profit | 6.81B | 6.53B | 6.15B | 5.49B | 4.66B | 3.72B |
| EBITDA | 1.50B | 1.40B | 1.40B | 988.00M | 805.00M | 366.00M |
| Net Income | 558.00M | 494.00M | 506.00M | 265.00M | 164.00M | -226.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 14.04B | 13.44B | 13.19B | 12.77B | 12.52B | 12.42B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 56.00M | 59.00M | 269.00M | 211.00M | 148.00M | 828.00M |
| Total Debt | 4.95B | 5.43B | 5.20B | 5.31B | 5.47B | 6.19B |
| Total Liabilities | 9.57B | 8.91B | 8.44B | 8.28B | 8.25B | 8.37B |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.47B | 4.53B | 4.75B | 4.50B | 4.27B | 4.05B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 978.00M | 833.00M | 831.00M | 500.00M | 145.00M | 224.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.36B | 1.17B | 1.14B | 765.00M | 419.00M | 413.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -425.00M | -552.00M | -495.00M | -255.00M | -262.00M | -1.11B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -958.00M | -831.00M | -587.00M | -447.00M | -837.00M | 1.43B |
US Foods Holding Technical Analysis
Positive
78.67
Price Trends
74.86
Positive
77.44
Positive
73.98
Positive
Market Momentum
0.60
Negative
66.31
Neutral
96.78
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For USFD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 78.67 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 73.37, above the 50-day MA of 74.86, and above the 200-day MA of 73.98, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.60 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.31 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 96.78 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for USFD.
US Foods Holding Risk Analysis
US Foods Holding disclosed 32 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. US Foods Holding reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
US Foods Holding Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $17.54B | 32.74 | 12.29% | ― | 4.80% | 3.49% | |
71 Outperform | $36.49B | 20.41 | 84.89% | 2.81% | 2.92% | -4.06% | |
64 Neutral | $2.49B | 35.46 | 14.12% | ― | 8.88% | 54.12% | |
63 Neutral | $15.22B | 46.67 | 7.42% | ― | 10.55% | -23.38% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
58 Neutral | ― | ― | ― | ― | 1.54% | -134.75% | |
52 Neutral | $2.27B | ― | -7.39% | ― | 2.60% | -3.23% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
USFD
US Foods Holding
78.67
9.12
13.11%
SPTN
SpartanNash Co
26.90
8.58
46.83%
SYY
Sysco
76.20
1.96
2.64%
CHEF
The Chefs' Warehouse
61.32
17.30
39.30%
UNFI
United Natural Foods
37.31
12.06
47.76%
PFGC
Performance Food Group
97.07
8.80
9.97%
US Foods Holding Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackM&A Transactions
US Foods Ends Merger Talks, Announces Share Buyback
Positive
Nov 24, 2025
On November 24, 2025, US Foods Holding Corp. announced the termination of its information-sharing process with Performance Food Group, deciding not to pursue a merger. The company reaffirmed its fiscal year 2025 guidance and long-range plan for 2025 to 2027, emphasizing its commitment to standalone growth and shareholder value. Additionally, US Foods revealed plans for a $250 million accelerated share repurchase agreement and a new $1 billion share repurchase program, reflecting confidence in its future and operational cash flow.
The most recent analyst rating on (USFD) stock is a Buy with a $85.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on US Foods Holding stock, see the USFD Stock Forecast page.
US Foods Reports Strong Growth Amid Challenges in Earnings Call
Nov 8, 2025
US Foods Holding Corp. recently held its earnings call, revealing a generally positive sentiment despite some challenges. The company reported strong growth in independent case volumes, strategic vendor management savings, and the successful expansion of its Pronto program. However, challenges were noted in chain restaurant volumes and macroeconomic conditions, including the impact of the government shutdown. Despite these hurdles, US Foods remains confident in its strategy and long-term growth targets.
US Foods Reports Strong Q3 2025 Earnings Growth
Nov 7, 2025
US Foods Holding Corp., a leading foodservice distributor in the United States, partners with approximately 250,000 customer locations to provide a broad range of food products and business solutions.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.