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US Foods Holding
(NYSE:USFD)
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
$105.00
▲(12.07% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/03/26
The score is driven primarily by solid but not exceptional financial fundamentals (growth with thin margins, meaningful leverage, and softer recent free cash flow) and weak technical momentum. These are partially offset by a constructive earnings outlook with reaffirmed 2026 growth guidance, cost-savings initiatives, and continued buybacks, while valuation appears only moderate with no dividend support.
Positive Factors
Sustained market-share gains in independents
A two-decade streak of market-share gains with independent restaurants indicates durable competitive traction. Consistent wins expand recurring revenue, strengthen network effects across distribution, enhance purchasing scale and cross-sell opportunities, and support resilient long-term top-line growth versus peers.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage for a low-margin distributor
Meaningful leverage in a structurally low-margin business reduces downside cushion and raises interest-rate sensitivity. Elevated debt limits strategic flexibility for acquisitions, buybacks or incremental investment and increases risk if volumes or margins deteriorate, constraining long-term optionality.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Sustained market-share gains in independents
A two-decade streak of market-share gains with independent restaurants indicates durable competitive traction. Consistent wins expand recurring revenue, strengthen network effects across distribution, enhance purchasing scale and cross-sell opportunities, and support resilient long-term top-line growth versus peers.
Read all positive factors
US Foods Holding Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Product Category
Breaks down sales across the company’s product groups to show which lines (e.g., proteins, produce, refrigerated, dry goods, equipment and services) drive revenue and which drive margins. For US Foods, this reveals dependency on specific categories, sensitivity to commodity-price and supply-chain swings, and where the company can expand or deepen customer relationships — key for judging growth prospects, margin sustainability, and concentration risks.
Breaks down sales across the company’s product groups to show which lines (e.g., proteins, produce, refrigerated, dry goods, equipment and services) drive revenue and which drive margins. For US Foods, this reveals dependency on specific categories, sensitivity to commodity-price and supply-chain swings, and where the company can expand or deepen customer relationships — key for judging growth prospects, margin sustainability, and concentration risks.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyUS Foods Holding (USFD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$21.91B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.93M
Price to Earnings (P/E)33.4
Beta (1Y)0.60
Revenue Growth3.67%
EPS Growth36.66%
CountryUS
Employees30,000
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryFood Distribution
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.01
Shares Outstanding220,221,650
10 Day Avg. Volume3,140,707
30 Day Avg. Volume2,931,662
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.56
Price to Book (P/B)4.03
Price to Sales (P/S)0.44
P/FCF Ratio18.08
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.18
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.65
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.73
Enterprise Value/Ebitda15.48
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$105.56Price Target Upside12.66% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)4.72
Revenue Forecast (FY)$41.44B
US Foods Holding Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
US Foods Holding Corp., operating primarily via its subsidiary, US Foods, Inc., is a key marketer and distributor within the United States foodservice market, offering an extensive selection of fresh, frozen, and dry food products alongside variou...
How the Company Makes Money
US Foods primarily makes money by purchasing food and foodservice-related products from manufacturers and other suppliers and reselling them to foodservice operators at a markup, generating revenue based on the volume of cases shipped and the net ...
US Foods Holding Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a largely positive tone: US Foods delivered sequential and year-over-year progress across key operational and financial metrics (adjusted EBITDA +6.2%, adjusted EPS +14.7%, independent case growth ~4.4%–4.6%, Ops QC +21%), reaffirmed 2026 guidance, and highlighted structural initiatives (Pronto expansion, MenuIQ adoption, UMOS, private label penetration, cost savings targets). Headwinds from severe weather, elevated fuel costs, and soft chain traffic created notable near-term impacts (reducing adjusted EBITDA growth by ~4 percentage points and pressuring operating cash flow and per-case costs), and management signaled these are being actively managed. Overall, the positives (consistent profitable growth, market-share gains, productivity and digital momentum, balance sheet strength and buybacks, and reaffirmed guidance) materially outweigh the transitory challenges described.Positive Updates
Revenue and Top-Line Growth
Net sales increased 2.8% year-over-year to $9.6 billion in Q1 2026, driven by total case volume growth of 1.4% and food cost inflation/mix of 1.4% (1.6% case growth excluding the Freshway divestiture).
Negative Updates
Weather-Related Disruption
Severe winter storms caused nearly twice as many distribution center closure days versus prior-year Q1, producing demand destruction and added costs (round trips, lost cases) that materially pressured productivity and P&L.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue and Top-Line Growth
Net sales increased 2.8% year-over-year to $9.6 billion in Q1 2026, driven by total case volume growth of 1.4% and food cost inflation/mix of 1.4% (1.6% case growth excluding the Freshway divestiture).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
US Foods reaffirmed 2026 guidance targeting adjusted EBITDA growth of 9–13% and adjusted diluted EPS growth of 18–24% (including a 53rd week), with Q2 adjusted EBITDA expected to be mid‑ to upper‑single digits; management said sustained elevated fuel and macro uncertainty would push results toward the low end of the range but absent those pressures growth should track the long‑term algorithm. They noted fuel surcharge recovery of ~30–40% with a ~1‑month lag and that roughly one‑third of 2026 fuel gallons are locked at below‑current market prices. Key Q1 metrics cited: $9.6B net sales (+2.8%), adjusted gross profit $1.7B (+4.4%), adjusted EBITDA $413M (+6.2%), adjusted diluted EPS $0.78 (+14.7%), operating cash flow $294M, cash CapEx $98M, 1.4M shares repurchased for $125M with $1B remaining authorization, and net leverage 2.6x; management also reiterated multi‑year targets including at least $300M in COGS savings by 2027 and >$75M in indirect‑spend savings in 2026 (>$100M in 2027), and said full‑year operating cash flow should grow versus 2025.US Foods Holding Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
76
Positive
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 39.68B | 39.42B | 37.88B | 35.60B | 34.06B | 29.49B |
| Gross Profit | 6.90B | 6.86B | 6.53B | 6.15B | 5.49B | 4.66B |
| EBITDA | 1.66B | 1.67B | 1.40B | 1.40B | 988.00M | 805.00M |
| Net Income | 677.00M | 676.00M | 494.00M | 506.00M | 265.00M | 164.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 14.16B | 13.94B | 13.44B | 13.19B | 12.77B | 12.52B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 49.00M | 41.00M | 59.00M | 269.00M | 211.00M | 148.00M |
| Total Debt | 5.17B | 5.72B | 5.43B | 5.20B | 5.31B | 5.47B |
| Total Liabilities | 9.83B | 9.64B | 8.91B | 8.44B | 8.28B | 8.25B |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.33B | 4.31B | 4.53B | 4.75B | 4.50B | 4.27B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 848.00M | 959.00M | 833.00M | 831.00M | 500.00M | 145.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.27B | 1.37B | 1.17B | 1.14B | 765.00M | 419.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -465.00M | -497.00M | -552.00M | -495.00M | -255.00M | -262.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -859.00M | -890.00M | -831.00M | -587.00M | -447.00M | -837.00M |
US Foods Holding Technical Analysis
Positive
93.69
Price Trends
89.90
Positive
91.25
Positive
84.45
Positive
Market Momentum
3.82
Negative
60.42
Neutral
54.49
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For USFD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 93.69 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 97.04, above the 50-day MA of 89.90, and above the 200-day MA of 84.45, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.82 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.42 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 54.49 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for USFD.
US Foods Holding Risk Analysis
US Foods Holding disclosed 32 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. US Foods Holding reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
US Foods Holding Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $3.96B | 46.68 | 13.54% | ― | 10.01% | 22.30% | |
66 Neutral | $17.60B | 53.35 | 7.13% | ― | 8.45% | -12.95% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
62 Neutral | $21.91B | 33.44 | 15.27% | ― | 3.67% | 36.66% | |
61 Neutral | $39.23B | 23.18 | 81.92% | 2.84% | 3.44% | -6.81% | |
50 Neutral | $2.90B | -78.31 | -2.43% | ― | -3.22% | 44.69% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
USFD
US Foods Holding
100.98
20.43
25.36%
SYY
Sysco
83.83
9.11
12.19%
CHEF
The Chefs' Warehouse
95.79
30.58
46.89%
UNFI
United Natural Foods
48.87
25.06
105.25%
PFGC
Performance Food Group
113.36
18.55
19.57%
US Foods Holding Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
US Foods Expands and Extends Asset-Based Credit Facility
Positive
Jun 2, 2026
On May 28, 2026, US Foods, Inc. amended its existing asset-based lending credit agreement, increasing total commitments from $2.3 billion to $2.5 billion and extending the facility’s maturity to May 28, 2031, with a conditional earlier matur...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
US Foods Shareholders Approve Governance Changes and Directors
Positive
May 15, 2026
At its recent annual meeting, US Foods Holding Corp. shareholders elected all nominated directors to the board and approved, on an advisory basis, the compensation of the company’s named executive officers. Investors also ratified the appoin...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
US Foods Names CEO Dave Flitman as Board Chair
Positive
May 14, 2026
On May 14, 2026, US Foods announced a board leadership transition in which Chief Executive Officer Dave Flitman was appointed Chair of the Board, while former Chair David Tehle moved into the role of Lead Independent Director. The company said com...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.