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US Foods Holding
(NYSE:USFD)
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Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$121.00
▲(24.52% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/18/26
USFD scores well primarily on improving fundamentals (higher revenue, better margins, and strong, consistent free cash flow) and a constructive earnings outlook with clear execution drivers (record results, share gains, productivity/AI initiatives, and repurchases). Technicals also support the score with a strong uptrend. The main offset is valuation, with a relatively high P/E and no dividend yield provided, plus ongoing sensitivity from thin industry margins and moderate leverage.
Positive Factors
Share Gains and Volume Growth
Consistent share gains across independent restaurants and healthcare indicate strengthening customer relationships and competitive execution. Continued volume expansion can support durable revenue growth and better network utilization across US Foods’ distribution platform.
Negative Factors
Structurally Thin Profit Margins
Food distribution remains a low-margin model, leaving limited protection if labor, fuel, food costs or service expenses rise. Although profitability has improved, margins below 2% at the net level can make earnings sensitive to relatively modest operational disruptions.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Share Gains and Volume Growth
Consistent share gains across independent restaurants and healthcare indicate strengthening customer relationships and competitive execution. Continued volume expansion can support durable revenue growth and better network utilization across US Foods’ distribution platform.
Read all positive factors
US Foods Holding Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Product Category
Breaks down sales across the company’s product groups to show which lines (e.g., proteins, produce, refrigerated, dry goods, equipment and services) drive revenue and which drive margins. For US Foods, this reveals dependency on specific categories, sensitivity to commodity-price and supply-chain swings, and where the company can expand or deepen customer relationships — key for judging growth prospects, margin sustainability, and concentration risks.
Breaks down sales across the company’s product groups to show which lines (e.g., proteins, produce, refrigerated, dry goods, equipment and services) drive revenue and which drive margins. For US Foods, this reveals dependency on specific categories, sensitivity to commodity-price and supply-chain swings, and where the company can expand or deepen customer relationships — key for judging growth prospects, margin sustainability, and concentration risks.
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The Fly
The FlyUS Foods Holding (USFD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$23.46B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.67M
Price to Earnings (P/E)33.2
Beta (1Y)0.61
Revenue Growth3.83%
EPS Growth38.81%
CountryUS
Employees30,000
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryFood Distribution
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.30
Shares Outstanding216,330,720
10 Day Avg. Volume2,265,424
30 Day Avg. Volume2,674,503
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.56
Price to Book (P/B)4.03
Price to Sales (P/S)0.44
P/FCF Ratio18.08
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$115.36Price Target Upside18.72% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)4.79
Revenue Forecast (FY)$41.52B
US Foods Holding Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
US Foods Holding Corp., operating primarily via its subsidiary, US Foods, Inc., is a key marketer and distributor within the United States foodservice market, offering an extensive selection of fresh, frozen, and dry food products alongside variou...
How the Company Makes Money
US Foods primarily makes money by purchasing food and foodservice-related products from manufacturers and other suppliers and reselling them to foodservice operators at a markup, generating revenue based on the volume of cases shipped and the net ...
US Foods Holding Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong execution and multiple tangible operational and financial wins: record adjusted EBITDA and margin expansion, double-digit adjusted EPS growth, accelerating independent restaurant volume (+5.1%), sizable share repurchases, and concrete self-help and AI-driven productivity initiatives with quantifiable savings targets. Management acknowledged headwinds — notably a decline in chain restaurant volume (-1.5%), elevated fuel and near-term selling cost pressure from the sales compensation transition, and the need to lap a prior event that will moderate Q3 comparisons. Overall, the positives (robust growth, margin expansion, share gains, cash flow strength, and clear programs to drive further productivity and AI adoption) materially outweigh the limited and largely manageable near-term challenges.Positive Updates
Record Adjusted EBITDA and Margin Expansion
Adjusted EBITDA reached a record $604 million, up 10.2% year-over-year, and adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 29 basis points to a record 5.7%.
Negative Updates
Chain Restaurant Volume Decline
Chain restaurant case volume declined 1.5% in the quarter, reflecting continued industry traffic pressure in that segment.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Adjusted EBITDA and Margin Expansion
Adjusted EBITDA reached a record $604 million, up 10.2% year-over-year, and adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 29 basis points to a record 5.7%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
US Foods reaffirmed fiscal 2026 guidance calling for net sales growth of 4%–6%, adjusted EBITDA growth of 9%–13% and adjusted EPS growth of 18%–24%, driven by total case volume growth of 2.5%–4.5%; management noted the full‑year outlook includes a 53rd week expected to add roughly 1% to total case growth and adjusted EBITDA, assumes fuel roughly at current levels, and that the midpoint of the ranges reflects their best estimate, with adjusted EPS expected to continue to outpace adjusted EBITDA over time as strong cash flow and share repurchases are deployed.US Foods Holding Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
71
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 40.13B | 39.42B | 37.88B | 35.60B | 34.06B | 29.49B |
| Gross Profit | 7.04B | 6.86B | 6.53B | 6.15B | 5.49B | 4.66B |
| EBITDA | 1.74B | 1.67B | 1.40B | 1.40B | 988.00M | 805.00M |
| Net Income | 728.00M | 676.00M | 494.00M | 506.00M | 265.00M | 164.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 14.34B | 13.94B | 13.44B | 13.19B | 12.77B | 12.52B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 56.00M | 41.00M | 59.00M | 269.00M | 211.00M | 148.00M |
| Total Debt | 5.24B | 5.72B | 5.43B | 5.20B | 5.31B | 5.47B |
| Total Liabilities | 10.06B | 9.64B | 8.91B | 8.44B | 8.28B | 8.25B |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.28B | 4.31B | 4.53B | 4.75B | 4.50B | 4.27B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 946.00M | 959.00M | 833.00M | 831.00M | 500.00M | 145.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.37B | 1.37B | 1.17B | 1.14B | 765.00M | 419.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -468.00M | -497.00M | -552.00M | -495.00M | -255.00M | -262.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -906.00M | -890.00M | -831.00M | -587.00M | -447.00M | -837.00M |
US Foods Holding Technical Analysis
Positive
97.17
Price Trends
100.71
Positive
94.20
Positive
88.65
Positive
Market Momentum
2.85
Positive
65.13
Neutral
52.77
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For USFD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 97.17 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 105.48, below the 50-day MA of 100.71, and above the 200-day MA of 88.65, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.85 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 65.13 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 52.77 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for USFD.
US Foods Holding Risk Analysis
US Foods Holding disclosed 64 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. US Foods Holding reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
US Foods Holding Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $23.46B | 33.22 | 16.75% | ― | 3.83% | 38.81% | |
70 Outperform | $4.44B | 46.47 | 15.09% | ― | 11.16% | 30.78% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
58 Neutral | $39.72B | 22.92 | 75.46% | 2.61% | 3.91% | -2.17% | |
57 Neutral | $16.38B | 45.64 | 7.63% | ― | 7.17% | 4.89% | |
50 Neutral | $2.83B | -76.75 | -2.43% | ― | -3.22% | 44.69% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
USFD
US Foods Holding
109.62
32.12
41.45%
SYY
Sysco
84.10
6.96
9.02%
CHEF
The Chefs' Warehouse
110.61
45.48
69.83%
UNFI
United Natural Foods
48.04
20.58
74.95%
PFGC
Performance Food Group
104.98
3.12
3.06%
US Foods Holding Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
US Foods Expands and Extends Asset-Based Credit Facility
Positive
Jun 2, 2026
On May 28, 2026, US Foods, Inc. amended its existing asset-based lending credit agreement, increasing total commitments from $2.3 billion to $2.5 billion and extending the facility’s maturity to May 28, 2031, with a conditional earlier matur...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.