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US Foods Holding (USFD)
NYSE:USFD
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US Foods Holding
(NYSE:USFD)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
$84.00
▲(8.53% Upside)
US Foods Holding scores well due to strong financial performance and positive earnings call sentiment, supported by strategic initiatives and market share gains. The share buyback program further boosts confidence. However, the high P/E ratio and mixed technical indicators slightly temper the overall score.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Consistent revenue growth indicates strong market demand and effective sales strategies, supporting long-term business expansion.
Cash Flow Management
Robust cash flow management enhances financial resilience, enabling strategic investments and shareholder returns.
Strategic Initiatives
Expansion of the Pronto program showcases innovation in distribution, potentially increasing market share and revenue.
Negative Factors
Chain Restaurant Volume Decline
Declining chain restaurant volumes may indicate challenges in a key customer segment, affecting overall sales growth.
Challenging Macro Environment
A challenging macro environment could hinder growth prospects, impacting demand and operational performance.
Government Shutdown Impact
Government shutdowns introduce market volatility, potentially disrupting operations in regions with high government presence.
US Foods Holding (USFD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$17.26B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.08M
Price to Earnings (P/E)32.2
Beta (1Y)0.77
Revenue Growth4.80%
EPS Growth3.49%
CountryUS
Employees30,000
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryFood Distribution
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.07
Shares Outstanding222,941,400
10 Day Avg. Volume2,060,754
30 Day Avg. Volume2,084,454
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-17.38
Price to Book (P/B)3.63
Price to Sales (P/S)0.43
P/FCF Ratio19.72
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.31
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.58
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.31
Enterprise Value/Ebitda15.00
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$92.13Price Target Upside19.03% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)3.94
Revenue Forecast (FY)$39.57B
US Foods Holding Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionUS Foods Holding Corp. (USFD) is one of the largest foodservice distributors in the United States, serving a wide range of customers including restaurants, healthcare facilities, and hospitality businesses. The company operates in the food distribution sector, providing a comprehensive portfolio of products that includes fresh, frozen, and dry food items, as well as non-food products such as kitchen supplies and equipment. US Foods focuses on delivering innovative solutions to its customers, leveraging technology and data analytics to enhance operational efficiency and customer experience.
How the Company Makes MoneyUS Foods generates revenue primarily through the distribution of food and related products to foodservice customers. The company's revenue model is based on wholesale sales, where it purchases food products from manufacturers and sells them to its customers at a markup. Key revenue streams include sales of fresh produce, meats, dairy products, and dry goods, as well as non-food items such as cleaning supplies and kitchen equipment. Additionally, US Foods offers value-added services such as menu planning, culinary support, and supply chain management, which help drive customer loyalty and repeat business. Significant partnerships with manufacturers and suppliers also contribute to its earnings, allowing US Foods to offer competitive pricing and a diverse product range.
US Foods Holding Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Nov 06, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
US Foods reported strong growth in independent case volumes, strategic vendor management savings, and successful expansion of the Pronto program. Despite these successes, challenges remained in chain restaurant volumes and macroeconomic conditions, including the impact of the government shutdown. The company remains confident in its ability to execute its strategy and achieve long-term growth targets.Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Financial Performance
For the first 9 months, US Foods delivered 4.4% net sales growth, 10.9% adjusted EBITDA growth, 29 basis points of adjusted EBITDA margin expansion, and 26.7% adjusted EPS growth.
Independent Case Growth
Independent case growth accelerated by 120 basis points from Q2 to Q3, with a 3.9% increase year-over-year, reflecting strong momentum and outperforming the broader market.
Strategic Vendor Management Success
The strategic vendor management initiative is on track to deliver more than $120 million in cost of goods savings for 2025, with private label penetration among core independent restaurant customers growing to over 53%.
Pronto Program Expansion
The Pronto small truck delivery service is expected to deliver approximately $950 million in sales this year, with plans to reach a $1 billion run rate by year-end.
Safety Improvements
Injury and accident rates improved by 16% compared to the same period last year, and over the past 2 years, safety performance improved by 35%.
Negative Updates
Chain Restaurant Volume Decline
Chain restaurant volume declined by 2.4% year-over-year, primarily due to a strategic exit and remained below prior year levels despite sequential improvement.
Challenging Macro Environment
Continued lower restaurant foot traffic and a dynamic macro environment led to a tightening of total case volume growth guidance to 1% to 2%.
Government Shutdown Impact
The uncertainty surrounding the government shutdown has created choppiness in the market, particularly impacting markets with a high government presence.
Company Guidance
During the US Foods Holding Corporation Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Call, guidance was updated to reflect strong performance and future expectations. The company increased its adjusted EBITDA growth projection to 10% to 12% and adjusted diluted EPS growth to 24% to 26% for fiscal year 2025. This was attributed to a 4.8% increase in net sales and a 11% rise in adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter, driven by a 1.1% case volume growth and a 3.7% impact from food cost inflation and mix. Further, the company highlighted a 4.4% net sales growth and 10.9% adjusted EBITDA growth for the first nine months of the fiscal year. Market share gains were evident, with a 3.9% increase in independent restaurant case volume and strong contributions from the healthcare and hospitality sectors. The company also reported a 26.7% increase in adjusted EPS and a 29 basis point expansion in adjusted EBITDA margin, reinforcing long-term value creation goals.US Foods Holding Financial Statement Overview
Summary
US Foods Holding shows strong revenue growth and improving profitability with effective leverage management. However, operational efficiency and cash flow management challenges persist, necessitating focus on cost control and cash flow optimization.Income Statement
US Foods Holding has shown strong revenue growth with a TTM increase of 9.74% and consistent gross profit margins around 17%. The net profit margin has improved to 1.43% in the TTM, indicating enhanced profitability. However, the EBIT margin has slightly decreased, suggesting some operational cost pressures.75
Positive
Balance Sheet
The company's debt-to-equity ratio has improved to 1.08 in the TTM, reflecting better leverage management. Return on equity has increased to 12.04%, showcasing effective use of equity to generate profits. However, the equity ratio remains stable, indicating moderate financial stability.70
Positive
Cash Flow
Operating cash flow has increased, but free cash flow growth is negative at -13.92% in the TTM, which could indicate higher capital expenditures or other cash outflows. The free cash flow to net income ratio remains strong at 0.75, suggesting efficient cash generation relative to net income.80
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 39.12B | 37.88B | 35.60B | 34.06B | 29.49B | 22.89B |
| Gross Profit | 6.81B | 6.53B | 6.15B | 5.49B | 4.66B | 3.72B |
| EBITDA | 1.50B | 1.40B | 1.40B | 988.00M | 805.00M | 366.00M |
| Net Income | 558.00M | 494.00M | 506.00M | 265.00M | 164.00M | -226.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 14.04B | 13.44B | 13.19B | 12.77B | 12.52B | 12.42B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 56.00M | 59.00M | 269.00M | 211.00M | 148.00M | 828.00M |
| Total Debt | 4.95B | 5.43B | 5.20B | 5.31B | 5.47B | 6.19B |
| Total Liabilities | 9.57B | 8.91B | 8.44B | 8.28B | 8.25B | 8.37B |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.47B | 4.53B | 4.75B | 4.50B | 4.27B | 4.05B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 978.00M | 833.00M | 831.00M | 500.00M | 145.00M | 224.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.36B | 1.17B | 1.14B | 765.00M | 419.00M | 413.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -425.00M | -552.00M | -495.00M | -255.00M | -262.00M | -1.11B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -958.00M | -831.00M | -587.00M | -447.00M | -837.00M | 1.43B |
US Foods Holding Technical Analysis
Positive
77.40
Price Trends
74.83
Positive
76.49
Positive
74.43
Positive
Market Momentum
0.66
Negative
58.78
Neutral
82.61
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For USFD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 77.4 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 76.44, above the 50-day MA of 74.83, and above the 200-day MA of 74.43, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.66 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.78 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.61 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for USFD.
US Foods Holding Risk Analysis
US Foods Holding disclosed 32 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. US Foods Holding reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
US Foods Holding Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $17.26B | 32.22 | 12.29% | ― | 4.80% | 3.49% | |
72 Outperform | $2.62B | 37.27 | 14.12% | ― | 8.88% | 54.12% | |
71 Outperform | $35.67B | 19.96 | 84.89% | 2.82% | 2.92% | -4.06% | |
65 Neutral | $14.37B | 44.07 | 7.42% | ― | 10.55% | -23.38% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
58 Neutral | ― | ― | ― | ― | 1.54% | -134.75% | |
52 Neutral | $2.05B | -20.15 | -6.37% | ― | 1.45% | -5.49% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
USFD
US Foods Holding
77.40
9.54
14.06%
SPTN
SpartanNash Co
26.90
9.12
51.29%
SYY
Sysco
74.49
-0.35
-0.47%
CHEF
The Chefs' Warehouse
64.46
16.34
33.96%
UNFI
United Natural Foods
33.59
7.94
30.96%
PFGC
Performance Food Group
91.66
7.52
8.94%
US Foods Holding Corporate Events
M&A TransactionsStock BuybackBusiness Operations and Strategy
US Foods Ends Merger Talks, Announces Share Buyback
Positive
Nov 24, 2025
On November 24, 2025, US Foods Holding Corp. announced the termination of its information-sharing process with Performance Food Group, deciding not to pursue a merger. The company reaffirmed its fiscal year 2025 guidance and long-range plan for 2025 to 2027, emphasizing its commitment to standalone growth and shareholder value. Additionally, US Foods revealed plans for a $250 million accelerated share repurchase agreement and a new $1 billion share repurchase program, reflecting confidence in its future and operational cash flow.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.