US Foods Holding (USFD)
NYSE:USFD
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US Foods Holding
(NYSE:USFD)
Select Model
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$99.00
▲(8.90% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/14/26
The score is driven by improving fundamentals and solid cash generation, reinforced by confident FY2026 guidance and execution highlights from the earnings call. Technicals are supportive but appear overheated, and valuation (P/E ~37) is a meaningful constraint.
Positive Factors
Improved cash generation and sustained free cash flow
Consistently positive and materially larger operating cash flow and free cash flow provide durable financial flexibility to service debt, fund tuck-in M&A, invest in logistics/tech, and sustain buybacks. Strong cash conversion reduces refinancing risk and supports multi-year strategy execution.
Negative Factors
Meaningful leverage and reduced equity cushion
A debt-heavy capital structure leaves less flexibility to absorb shocks in a thin-margin distribution business. With leverage near targets but equity erosion, the company remains sensitive to interest-cost or cash-flow volatility, constraining capital allocation during downturns.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improved cash generation and sustained free cash flow
Consistently positive and materially larger operating cash flow and free cash flow provide durable financial flexibility to service debt, fund tuck-in M&A, invest in logistics/tech, and sustain buybacks. Strong cash conversion reduces refinancing risk and supports multi-year strategy execution.
Read all positive factors
US Foods Holding (USFD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$20.05B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.57M
Price to Earnings (P/E)25.6
Beta (1Y)0.73
Revenue Growth4.80%
EPS Growth3.49%
CountryUS
Employees30,000
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryFood Distribution
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.04
Shares Outstanding220,541,960
10 Day Avg. Volume2,700,845
30 Day Avg. Volume2,569,766
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.57
Price to Book (P/B)4.03
Price to Sales (P/S)0.44
P/FCF Ratio18.08
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.28
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.65
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.73
Enterprise Value/Ebitda15.38
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$109.36Price Target Upside20.29% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)4.77
Revenue Forecast (FY)$41.56B
US Foods Holding Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
US Foods Holding Corp., through its subsidiary, US Foods, Inc., markets and distributes fresh, frozen, and dry food and non-food products to foodservice customers in the United States. The company's customers include independently owned single and...
How the Company Makes Money
US Foods primarily makes money by purchasing food and related products from manufacturers and other suppliers and reselling them to foodservice customers at a markup, generating revenue from product sales delivered through its distribution network...
US Foods Holding Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 12, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call showcased strong, broad-based execution in FY2025 with record adjusted EBITDA and double-digit adjusted EPS growth, meaningful cost savings and margin expansion, accelerated share gains in target customer types, solid capital returns and technology/AI progress. Near-term headwinds—primarily weather disruptions, softer chain traffic and ongoing macro/food inflation dynamics—create some quarter-to-quarter volatility (notably Q1 2026), and the multiyear sales compensation transition introduces execution risk. Overall, the positives (record performance, upgraded guidance, cost savings upside and robust growth levers) substantially outweigh the transitory negatives, leading management to maintain confident full-year guidance.Positive Updates
Record Adjusted EBITDA and Margin Expansion (FY2025)
Adjusted EBITDA grew 11% to more than $1.9 billion for fiscal 2025, with adjusted EBITDA margin expanding ~30 basis points to a record 4.9% (Q4 margin expanded 35 bps to 5.0%).
Negative Updates
Near-Term Weather and Operational Disruptions
Severe winter storms and related closures (Dec and Jan/Feb) and the government shutdown negatively impacted Q4/Q1 volumes. There were ~35% more distribution center closure days in early 2026 versus all of Q1 2025, pressuring Q1 volume and costs.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Adjusted EBITDA and Margin Expansion (FY2025)
Adjusted EBITDA grew 11% to more than $1.9 billion for fiscal 2025, with adjusted EBITDA margin expanding ~30 basis points to a record 4.9% (Q4 margin expanded 35 bps to 5.0%).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
US Foods guided fiscal 2026 assuming a 53rd week that adds roughly +1% to total case growth and adjusted EBITDA, and expects net sales to grow 4%–6% driven by total case growth of 2.5%–4.5% (independent case growth 4%–7%); sales inflation/mix of about 1.5%; adjusted EBITDA growth of 9%–13%; and adjusted diluted EPS growth of 18%–24%. Management said Q1 adjusted EBITDA should be upper-single-digit growth (noting ~35% more DC closure days year-to-date vs. prior Q1 from severe weather), reiterated the 2025–27 plan to generate >$4.0 billion of cumulative operating cash flow, noted ~ $1.1 billion remaining on the share repurchase authorization, and finished FY25 at 2.7x net leverage (inside a 2.0–3.0x target).US Foods Holding Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
61
Positive
Cash Flow
68
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 39.42B | 37.88B | 35.60B | 34.06B | 29.49B |
| Gross Profit | 6.86B | 6.53B | 6.15B | 5.49B | 4.66B |
| EBITDA | 1.67B | 1.40B | 1.40B | 988.00M | 805.00M |
| Net Income | 676.00M | 494.00M | 506.00M | 265.00M | 164.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 13.94B | 13.44B | 13.19B | 12.77B | 12.52B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 41.00M | 59.00M | 269.00M | 211.00M | 148.00M |
| Total Debt | 5.72B | 5.43B | 5.20B | 5.31B | 5.47B |
| Total Liabilities | 9.64B | 8.91B | 8.44B | 8.28B | 8.25B |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.31B | 4.53B | 4.75B | 4.50B | 4.27B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 959.00M | 833.00M | 831.00M | 500.00M | 145.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.37B | 1.17B | 1.14B | 765.00M | 419.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -497.00M | -552.00M | -495.00M | -255.00M | -262.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -890.00M | -831.00M | -587.00M | -447.00M | -837.00M |
US Foods Holding Technical Analysis
Neutral
90.91
Price Trends
91.23
Negative
83.82
Positive
80.90
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.15
Positive
49.03
Neutral
39.11
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For USFD, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 90.91 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 91.12, below the 50-day MA of 91.23, and above the 200-day MA of 80.90, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.15 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 49.03 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 39.11 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for USFD.
US Foods Holding Risk Analysis
US Foods Holding disclosed 32 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. US Foods Holding reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
US Foods Holding Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $20.05B | 25.64 | 15.01% | ― | 4.80% | 3.49% | |
69 Neutral | $2.41B | 28.36 | 12.69% | ― | 8.88% | 54.12% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
61 Neutral | $2.76B | 28.34 | -4.97% | ― | 1.45% | -5.49% | |
59 Neutral | $35.08B | 22.87 | 88.72% | 2.84% | 2.92% | -4.06% | |
57 Neutral | $13.51B | 57.89 | 7.66% | ― | 10.55% | -23.38% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
USFD
US Foods Holding
90.91
30.43
50.31%
SYY
Sysco
73.24
7.14
10.80%
CHEF
The Chefs' Warehouse
59.22
10.14
20.66%
UNFI
United Natural Foods
45.37
21.74
92.00%
PFGC
Performance Food Group
85.97
14.14
19.69%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.