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US Foods Holding (USFD)
NYSE:USFD
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US Foods Holding
(NYSE:USFD)
Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
$93.00
▲(13.66%Upside)
Positive Factors
Earnings Guidance
The company reiterated its guidance for sales, EBITDA, and EPS, indicating positive expectations for the future.
Financial Performance
Lower operating expenses led to an earnings beat, indicating effective cost management.
Market Share and Strategy
US Foods Holding Corp is executing well on its self-help strategy and is positioned to continue gaining market share despite uncertain demand.
Negative Factors
Case Volume
Total org. case vol. growth of 1.4% missed the bar of about 2%; more importantly, independent case volume of 1.8% missed the 3%+ bar and slowed sequentially.
Macroeconomic Environment
Case growth outlook for 2025 is below the long-term target, largely due to a weaker macro environment.
US Foods Holding (USFD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$18.93B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.04M
Price to Earnings (P/E)37.6
Beta (1Y)0.84
Revenue Growth6.32%
EPS Growth5.69%
CountryUS
Employees30,000
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength54
IndustryFood Distribution
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.68
Shares Outstanding231,350,020
10 Day Avg. Volume2,730,903
30 Day Avg. Volume2,038,719
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio4.27
Price to Book (P/B)4.10
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio16.92
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.25
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.16
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.56
Enterprise Value/Ebitda4.11
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$85.36Price Target Upside4.33% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering11
US Foods Holding Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionUS Foods Holding Corp., through its subsidiary, US Foods, Inc., markets and distributes fresh, frozen, and dry food and non-food products to foodservice customers in the United States. The company's customers include independently owned single and multi-unit restaurants, regional concepts, national restaurant chains, hospitals, nursing homes, hotels and motels, country clubs, government and military organizations, colleges and universities, and retail locations. As of July 06, 2022, it operated 70 broadline facilities; and 80 cash and carry locations. The company was formerly known as USF Holding Corp. and changed its name to US Foods Holding Corp. in February 2016. US Foods Holding Corp. was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Rosemont, Illinois.
How the Company Makes MoneyUS Foods generates revenue primarily through the sale of food and related products to foodservice customers across the United States. The company's business model relies on a vast distribution network and a diverse product portfolio to meet the needs of its varied clientele. Revenue streams are driven by direct product sales, encompassing fresh produce, meats, seafood, dairy, bakery goods, and non-food items. Additionally, US Foods offers value-added services such as menu planning, food safety training, and business consultation, which can enhance customer loyalty and sales growth. Strategic partnerships with suppliers and the ability to leverage its scale for cost efficiencies also play a significant role in the company's profitability.
US Foods Holding Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 08, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: 18.37%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 07, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted strong profitability growth and consistent market share gains despite external challenges like severe weather and a challenging macro environment. The authorization of a $1 billion share repurchase program and improvements in service levels and employee retention further contributed to a positive outlook. However, there were challenges, including weather impacts, chain restaurant volume declines, and difficulties in selling CHEF'STORE.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Profitability Despite Challenges
Adjusted EBITDA grew more than 9% and adjusted diluted EPS increased 26% despite the challenging operating environment and severe weather-related headwinds.
Consistent Market Share Gains
US Foods delivered 16 consecutive quarters of gains with independent restaurants and 18 consecutive quarters with health care.
$1 Billion Share Repurchase Program
The Board authorized a new $1 billion share repurchase program, building upon a cumulative buyback of more than 24 million shares since late 2022.
Record Performance in Healthcare and Hospitality
Healthcare business grew 6.1% and hospitality grew 3.6%, with strong new business wins in both sectors.
Enhanced Service Levels
On-time delivery and service levels are at the best since 2019, with Ops QC metric improving approximately 20% from the prior year.
Innovative AI Tools
Launch of generative AI automatic order guide for sellers to improve efficiency in creating customer proposals and onboarding new business.
Improved Employee Retention
Annualized selector turnover improved by approximately 20 percentage points and driver turnover improved by low single-digits over the prior year.
Negative Updates
Impact of Severe Weather
Independent case growth was impacted by severe weather, including wildfires in LA, leading to a net headwind of approximately 160 basis points.
Chain Restaurant Volume Decline
Chain restaurant volume declined 4.3%, broadly in line with industry foot traffic, which was down 3% for the first quarter.
Challenges in Selling CHEF'STORE
Current macro environment is not conducive to completing a transaction for CHEF'STORE at an appropriate valuation.
Company Guidance
During the US Foods Holding Corp First Quarter 2025 Earnings Call, CEO Dave Flitman highlighted key metrics and provided guidance for fiscal 2025. The company reported strong performance with adjusted EBITDA growing over 9% and adjusted diluted EPS increasing by 26%. The Board authorized a new $1 billion share repurchase program, building on $1.3 billion in cumulative buybacks since late 2022. Total volume increased by 1.1% with independent restaurant case growth of 2.5%, while healthcare and hospitality grew 6.1% and 3.6%, respectively. Despite severe weather, US Foods maintained a positive outlook, projecting independent case growth of 2% to 5% for the full year. The company emphasized its resilience and strategic focus on profitable growth, targeting a 5% sales CAGR and 10% adjusted EBITDA CAGR through 2027, with a 20% adjusted EPS CAGR.US Foods Holding Financial Statement Overview
Summary
US Foods Holding demonstrates strong financial performance with substantial revenue growth and improved profitability, supported by efficient cash flow management. While the leverage is manageable, continued debt monitoring is advised.Income Statement
US Foods Holding demonstrates strong income statement metrics with a steady increase in revenue, growing from $22,885 million in 2021 to $38,279 million in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), indicating robust growth. Gross profit margin remains stable, and net profit margin improved significantly from negative in 2021 to around 1.38% in TTM. EBIT and EBITDA margins also reflect healthy operational performance. Overall, the company showcases strong revenue growth and improving profitability.88
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reflects a moderate financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of approximately 1.04 in TTM, showing manageable leverage but indicating potential risk if debt increases further. The equity ratio has remained stable, around 34% in TTM, emphasizing a reasonable proportion of equity financing. Return on equity has improved, suggesting efficient use of shareholder capital. Stability in equity ratios and a balanced approach to leveraging are key positives, albeit with caution regarding debt levels.75
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash flow performance is strong, with free cash flow growth evident from $145 million in 2022 to $1,121 million in TTM, highlighting significant improvement in cash generation. Operating cash flow consistently exceeds net income, indicating solid cash earnings quality. The free cash flow to net income ratio also shows robust coverage, underscoring efficient cash management. Overall, the company shows healthy cash flow dynamics, supporting its operational and strategic initiatives.80
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 38.28B | 37.88B | 35.60B | 34.06B | 29.49B | 22.89B |
| Gross Profit | 6.65B | 6.53B | 6.15B | 5.49B | 4.66B | 3.72B |
| EBITDA | 1.35B | 1.40B | 1.40B | 1.02B | 841.00M | 371.00M |
| Net Income | 527.00M | 494.00M | 506.00M | 265.00M | 164.00M | -226.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 13.65B | 13.44B | 13.19B | 12.77B | 12.52B | 12.42B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 101.00M | 59.00M | 269.00M | 211.00M | 148.00M | 828.00M |
| Total Debt | 4.80B | 5.43B | 5.20B | 5.03B | 5.19B | 6.19B |
| Total Liabilities | 9.04B | 8.91B | 8.44B | 8.28B | 8.25B | 8.37B |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.62B | 4.53B | 4.75B | 4.50B | 4.27B | 4.05B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.12B | 833.00M | 831.00M | 500.00M | 145.00M | 224.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.44B | 1.17B | 1.14B | 765.00M | 419.00M | 413.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -596.00M | -552.00M | -495.00M | -255.00M | -262.00M | -1.11B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -995.00M | -831.00M | -587.00M | -447.00M | -837.00M | 1.43B |
US Foods Holding Technical Analysis
Positive
81.82
Price Trends
78.21
Positive
71.79
Positive
69.58
Positive
Market Momentum
1.87
Negative
58.72
Neutral
65.05
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For USFD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 81.82 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 80.44, above the 50-day MA of 78.21, and above the 200-day MA of 69.58, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.87 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.72 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 65.05 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for USFD.
US Foods Holding Risk Analysis
US Foods Holding disclosed 32 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. US Foods Holding reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
US Foods Holding Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $39.15B | 20.89 | 94.91% | 2.59% | 3.55% | -5.79% | |
78 Outperform | $15.30B | 40.79 | 9.05% | ― | 6.20% | -10.58% | |
76 Outperform | $2.52B | 41.30 | 12.90% | ― | 7.85% | 79.89% | |
75 Outperform | $18.93B | 37.60 | 11.16% | ― | 6.32% | 5.69% | |
71 Outperform | $899.95M | 2,245.98 | -1.38% | 3.29% | 0.26% | -119.66% | |
65 Neutral | $27.20B | 15.73 | -4.29% | 2.57% | 1.03% | 4.90% | |
62 Neutral | $1.67B | ― | -4.11% | ― | 6.62% | 53.12% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
Performance Comparison
USFD
US Foods Holding
82.26
29.57
56.12%
SPTN
SpartanNash Co
26.54
6.66
33.50%
SYY
Sysco
80.30
9.41
13.27%
CHEF
The Chefs' Warehouse
62.23
19.41
45.33%
UNFI
United Natural Foods
28.21
12.68
81.65%
PFGC
Performance Food Group
98.82
32.25
48.45%
US Foods Holding Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
US Foods Holding Concludes Annual Stockholders Meeting
Neutral
May 23, 2025
On May 22, 2025, US Foods Holding Corp. conducted its annual meeting of stockholders, where a quorum was achieved with 219,917,528 shares represented. During the meeting, several directors were elected to serve until the next annual meeting, and a proposal to approve executive officer compensation on a non-binding advisory basis was passed.
The most recent analyst rating on (USFD) stock is a Buy with a $71.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on US Foods Holding stock, see the USFD Stock Forecast page.
Executive/Board Changes
US Foods Appoints New Principal Accounting Officer
Neutral
May 7, 2025
On May 7, 2025, US Foods Holding Corp. appointed AnnMarie Lobred as the Principal Accounting Officer, succeeding Dirk Locascio who will continue as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Lobred, who joined the company in January 2025, brings over 30 years of accounting experience, including leadership roles at Performance Food Group Company and PricewaterhouseCoopers, and will maintain her current compensation package.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.