Chagee Holdings Limited Unsponsored ADR (CHA)
NASDAQ:CHA
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Chagee Holdings Limited Unsponsored ADR
(NASDAQ:CHA)
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
$10.50
▼(-28.08% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/03/26
The score is primarily held back by weakening 2025 fundamentals (revenue decline, margin compression, and lower free cash flow) and a cautious recovery outlook from management. These risks are partially offset by a strengthened balance sheet with low leverage, improving near-term technical setup, and supportive valuation with a low P/E and high dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Large store base & membership scale
A 7,453-location network plus ~240M registered members provides durable scale advantages: distribution density, significant owned demand channel and data-driven retention. This structural footprint supports marketing efficiency, product rollouts and faster reactivation without relying solely on third-party channels.
Negative Factors
Severe same‑store sales weakness
A 25.5% YoY same‑store sales drop signals durable customer traffic or product demand issues in core markets. If persistent, this compresses unit economics across the large store base, slows recovery, and forces trade-offs between promotional spend, pricing, and long-term brand positioning.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Large store base & membership scale
A 7,453-location network plus ~240M registered members provides durable scale advantages: distribution density, significant owned demand channel and data-driven retention. This structural footprint supports marketing efficiency, product rollouts and faster reactivation without relying solely on third-party channels.
Read all positive factors
Chagee Holdings Limited Unsponsored ADR (CHA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.82B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)411.72K
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.3
Beta (1Y)1.19
Revenue Growth4.09%
EPS Growth-34.00%
CountryUS
Employees4,800
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryBeverages - Non-Alcoholic
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)6.10
Shares Outstanding125,489,220
10 Day Avg. Volume426,765
30 Day Avg. Volume411,721
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.21
Price to Book (P/B)1.80
Price to Sales (P/S)1.02
P/FCF Ratio11.09
Enterprise Value/Market Cap3.30
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.46
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda4.45
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$16.00Price Target Upside9.59% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)9.38
Revenue Forecast (FY)$13.93B
Chagee Holdings Limited Unsponsored ADR Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Chagee Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, owns, operates, and franchises teahouses under the CHAGEE brand name in the People's Republic of China and internationally. The company engages in sale of tea drinks and related raw materials, pac...
How the Company Makes Money
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Chagee Holdings Limited Unsponsored ADR Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 31, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a balanced view: the company highlighted strong strategic assets—large store base, massive membership, improving gross margins, solid cash position, sustained net profitability, and very strong overseas GMV growth—alongside clear executional challenges, notably a severe same-store sales decline (-25.5% YoY), a Q4 revenue drop (~10.8% YoY), an operating loss driven by restructuring (~RMB 320m impact), and materially higher operating expenses. Management framed 2026 as a year of quality-focused recovery (moderated domestic expansion, continued overseas push, product and experience upgrades) and expects stabilization with an emphasis on long-term positioning rather than short-term tactics. Given the comparable weight of meaningful positives (profitability, cash, international momentum, product wins) and significant near-term operational headwinds, the overall tone is cautious but constructive.Positive Updates
Large Store Base and Network Expansion
Total tea house network reached 7,453 locations across Greater China and overseas, a 15.7% increase from 6,440 a year ago; company-owned stores grew to 615 (up from 169 at year-end 2024) with a sequential net increase of 248.
Negative Updates
Sharp Same-Store Sales Decline
Same-store sales in Q4 declined 25.5% year-over-year, identified by management as the biggest challenge in 2025 and a primary driver of near-term revenue pressure.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Large Store Base and Network Expansion
Total tea house network reached 7,453 locations across Greater China and overseas, a 15.7% increase from 6,440 a year ago; company-owned stores grew to 615 (up from 169 at year-end 2024) with a sequential net increase of 248.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided 2026 toward “high‑quality” growth with a focus on same‑store recovery (stabilize in H1, improve in H2), keeping revenue and profit broadly flat year‑over‑year, prioritizing market share if trade‑offs arise, moderating domestic expansion to about 300 net new tea houses in Mainland China and targeting ~200 net new overseas, and rolling out a GMV‑based franchise revenue‑sharing model from 2026. Execution priorities are fivefold — brand upgrade, product innovation, scenario expansion, experience enhancement and organizational improvements — with continued investment in brand/R&D/digital, a stable sales & marketing fee rate, tighter cost controls and G&A efficiency while supporting global expansion. This guidance sits against FY2025 metrics of total GMV RMB31.6bn (+7.2%), Q4 GMV RMB7,322.9m (Q4 same‑store sales down 25.5% YoY), FY net revenue RMB12.9bn (+4%) and Q4 net revenue RMB2,974.5m, Q4 gross profit RMB1,581.9m (gross margin 53.2%), Q4 operating loss RMB35.5m (non‑GAAP operating income RMB30.5m, 1% margin), Q4 GAAP net income RMB33.9m (non‑GAAP RMB100m, 3.4% margin), FY GAAP net income RMB1,186.3m (non‑GAAP RMB1,909.9m), a 7,453‑store network (+15.7% YoY; 615 company‑owned), average monthly GMV per Greater China store RMB337,000 in Q4 (RMB387,000 FY), overseas Q4 GMV RMB371.9m (+84.6% YoY), and cash/time deposits of RMB7,892.4m.Chagee Holdings Limited Unsponsored ADR Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
56
Neutral
| Breakdown | Mar 2026 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||
| Total Revenue | 12.91B | 12.41B | 4.64B | 491.65M |
| Gross Profit | 5.92B | 5.68B | 1.97B | 133.07M |
| EBITDA | 1.49B | 2.95B | 1.08B | -110.93M |
| Net Income | 1.17B | 2.52B | 800.90M | -90.72M |
Balance Sheet | ||||
| Total Assets | 11.47B | 6.60B | 2.94B | 393.96M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 8.00B | 4.85B | 2.42B | 200.75M |
| Total Debt | 1.28B | 548.06M | 108.84M | 63.45M |
| Total Liabilities | 3.89B | 3.84B | 2.53B | 701.31M |
| Stockholders Equity | 7.35B | 2.65B | 408.81M | -307.42M |
Cash Flow | ||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.19B | 2.60B | 1.90B | 32.30M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.64B | 2.84B | 1.93B | 43.03M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -825.02M | -229.48M | -146.71M | -10.98M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 2.05B | -173.93M | 344.20M | -33.00K |
Chagee Holdings Limited Unsponsored ADR Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
82 Outperform | $4.34B | 22.45 | 25.43% | ― | 23.05% | 36.53% | |
69 Neutral | $3.30B | 19.35 | 35.99% | ― | 1.01% | 1.21% | |
66 Neutral | $1.82B | 11.28 | 16.70% | ― | 4.09% | -34.00% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
59 Neutral | $7.70B | 20.71 | 7.51% | ― | 123.34% | 32.74% | |
51 Neutral | $130.10M | -8.80 | -13.99% | ― | 9.76% | 67.59% | |
42 Neutral | $316.93M | -6.59 | -447.55% | ― | 8.84% | 10.68% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
CHA
Chagee Holdings Limited Unsponsored ADR
9.54
-18.27
-65.70%
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35.28
-8.67
-19.73%
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30.12
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Zevia PBC
1.69
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COCO
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107.82%
Chagee Holdings Limited Unsponsored ADR Corporate Events
Chagee Posts Lower 2025 Profit as Restructuring and Overseas Expansion Weigh on Margins
Mar 31, 2026
On March 31, 2026, Shanghai-based Chagee reported unaudited results for the fourth quarter and full year ended Dec. 31, 2025, highlighting a teahouse network of 7,453 locations, up 15.7% year over year. Total 2025 GMV rose 7.2% to RMB31.58 billion...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.