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Cognex Corp (CGNX)
NASDAQ:CGNX

Cognex (CGNX) AI Stock Analysis

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Cognex

(NASDAQ:CGNX)

Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$33.00
▲(2.96%Upside)
Cognex's strong financial stability and strategic initiatives in AI and logistics are positive drivers. However, high valuation metrics, mixed technical indicators, and challenges in key markets like automotive and China weigh on the overall score.
Positive Factors
Market Expansion
CGNX aims to double its customer base in the next five years by leveraging expanded AI capabilities and an updated go-to-market strategy.
Strategic Leadership
The transition of CEO Rob Willett to Matt Moschner suggests confidence in the company’s leadership and future direction.
Technological Advancements
CGNX has best-in-class machine vision technology, positioning it strongly in a competitive industry.
Negative Factors
Earnings Performance
CGNX needs to prove the case of long-term earnings compounding, which has not been the case so far and won't be solved near-term.
Financial Framework
The long-term growth framework will almost certainly be lowered, with expectations moving from 15% to 10%.
Growth Targets
The long-term targets were revised down, and the 10-11% organic growth target remains ambitious.

Cognex (CGNX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Cognex Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCognex Corporation (CGNX) is a leading provider of vision systems, vision software, vision sensors, and surface inspection systems used in manufacturing automation. The company operates predominantly in the industrial manufacturing and logistics sectors, offering advanced machine vision technology that enables computers to emulate human vision in order to automate tasks. Cognex's core products provide solutions for quality inspection, robot guidance, and product tracking across various industries, including automotive, electronics, consumer products, and logistics.
How the Company Makes MoneyCognex makes money primarily through the sale of its machine vision systems and software products. The company's revenue model centers around the direct sales of its hardware and software solutions to manufacturers and logistics companies seeking to automate their production and distribution processes. Key revenue streams include sales of vision systems that are used for tasks like automated quality inspection and barcode reading. Cognex also generates income from software licenses, maintenance services, and training programs. Significant partnerships with major integrators and OEMs (Original Equipment Manufacturers) further enhance their market reach and contribute to earnings. The company's ability to innovate and develop cutting-edge vision technology is a critical factor in maintaining its competitive advantage and driving revenue growth.

Cognex Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 30, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 17.70%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mixed outlook with notable achievements in revenue growth, logistics segment performance, and effective capital return strategies. However, challenges remain in the automotive segment, China market, and gross margin pressures. The impact of tariffs adds an element of uncertainty, but management expects to mitigate these effects.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Revenue Growth and Margin Expansion
Revenue grew 5% year-on-year on a constant currency basis, marking a third consecutive quarter of organic growth. Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded by nearly 500 basis points year-on-year, demonstrating effective cost management.
Logistics Segment Growth
Logistics revenue continued to grow double-digits year-on-year, marking the fifth consecutive quarter of growth and the highest revenue level since Q1 of 2022.
New Product Launch - In-Sight 8900
Cognex launched the In-Sight 8900 smart camera, bringing embedded AI to OEM customers, enhancing their ability to tackle complex manufacturing challenges.
Successful Capital Return
More than $100 million returned to shareholders through stock buybacks in Q1, the largest quarterly buyback since Q1 of 2022.
Negative Updates
Automotive Segment Weakness
Automotive revenue was down year-on-year due to declines in EV battery investment and tentativeness in large capital projects.
Challenges in China
Revenue in Greater China was down 9% due to lower consumer electronics revenue and competitive pricing pressures.
Gross Margin Pressure
Adjusted gross margin declined by 120 basis points year-on-year, driven by unfavorable mix and FX headwinds.
Tariff-Related Uncertainty
The tariff situation remains fluid and poses a potential risk, although Cognex expects to substantially mitigate the direct cost impact.
Company Guidance
In the Cognex First Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company provided guidance for the upcoming fiscal periods, highlighting key metrics and strategic directions. For the first quarter, Cognex reported a 5% revenue growth year-on-year on a constant currency basis, with significant contributions from the Logistics and Semiconductor industries, although Automotive remained weak. Operating expense discipline led to a nearly 500 basis point expansion in adjusted EBITDA margin, exceeding expectations. For the second quarter, Cognex anticipates revenue between $235 million and $255 million, with continued strength in Logistics but caution in Automotive. The company expects adjusted gross margins to remain in the high 60% range, and adjusted EBITDA margins between 18.5% and 21.5%. Additionally, Cognex announced strategic objectives to become a leader in AI technology for industrial machine vision, enhance customer experience, and expand its customer base, which will be discussed in detail at their upcoming Investor Day.

Cognex Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Cognex shows strong financial stability with a solid equity ratio and low leverage. While revenue growth is modest, operational margins remain healthy. The company exhibits effective cash flow management, although challenges in sustaining high profitability and growth are notable.
Income Statement
67
Positive
Cognex's TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue showed a modest growth of 0.57% from the previous year, indicating relative stability in revenue generation. The TTM gross profit margin stands strong at approximately 68.3%, reflecting the company's efficiency in managing production costs. However, the net profit margin of 12.81% in the TTM indicates a decline from previous years, suggesting increasing operational costs or other expenses impacting profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are relatively healthy at 13.80% and 17.01% respectively, underscoring a solid operational performance despite the revenue challenges.
Balance Sheet
75
Positive
The company's balance sheet reflects a robust equity position with a strong equity ratio of 74.8% in the TTM, signifying financial stability. The debt-to-equity ratio is low at 0.05, indicating low leverage and a conservative approach to financing. Return on Equity (ROE) for the TTM is approximately 8.14%, which, while decent, shows a downward trend compared to previous years, suggesting moderate efficiency in using shareholder equity to generate profits.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
Cognex's TTM free cash flow grew by 21.23%, showcasing significant improvement in cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.49 reflects efficient cash conversion from earnings. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 1.38 indicates strong cash flow relative to net income, suggesting effective management of operational cash needs. However, a drop in operating cash flow compared to prior years may indicate potential challenges in sustaining cash generation levels.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue919.75M914.51M837.55M1.01B1.04B811.02M
Gross Profit628.18M625.79M601.24M721.90M759.83M604.60M
EBITDA164.44M147.75M144.58M288.29M335.38M232.53M
Net Income117.75M106.17M113.23M215.53M279.88M176.19M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.93B1.99B2.02B1.96B2.00B1.80B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments200.45M246.05M332.05M854.25M907.36M372.31M
Total Debt73.70M70.22M78.60M48.21M25.58M26.23M
Total Liabilities486.88M475.35M513.06M519.75M573.57M538.50M
Stockholders Equity1.45B1.52B1.50B1.44B1.43B1.26B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow162.46M134.04M89.84M223.74M298.61M229.10M
Operating Cash Flow175.94M149.08M112.92M243.41M314.06M242.40M
Investing Cash Flow43.14M-38.97M32.27M-4.45M-252.54M169.44M
Financing Cash Flow-211.70M-118.42M-125.61M-240.37M-141.62M-316.87M

Cognex Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price32.05
Price Trends
50DMA
29.74
Positive
100DMA
30.19
Positive
200DMA
34.53
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
0.57
Negative
RSI
67.74
Neutral
STOCH
87.79
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CGNX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 32.05 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 30.77, above the 50-day MA of 29.74, and below the 200-day MA of 34.53, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.57 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.74 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 87.79 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CGNX.

Cognex Risk Analysis

Cognex disclosed 23 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Cognex reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Cognex Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
VNVNT
75
Outperform
$5.54B15.2635.88%0.27%-3.59%-11.30%
ESESE
74
Outperform
$4.93B41.799.66%0.17%8.40%20.03%
74
Outperform
$6.04B24.1717.73%7.10%58.52%
74
Outperform
$6.76B30.029.50%0.87%-1.14%
71
Outperform
$4.71B66.929.73%6.52%1.60%
68
Neutral
$5.28B46.018.02%1.00%8.56%18.99%
63
Neutral
$33.24B5.92-11.55%1.90%5.54%-20.14%
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
CGNX
Cognex
32.78
-14.09
-30.06%
ESE
Esco Technologies
193.11
90.46
88.12%
NOVT
Novanta
132.85
-26.55
-16.66%
ITRI
Itron
134.08
34.65
34.85%
MKSI
MKS
104.62
-28.32
-21.30%
VNT
Vontier
38.06
0.10
0.26%

Cognex Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Cognex Reports Q1 2025 Financial Results
Positive
Apr 30, 2025

On April 30, 2025, Cognex Corporation announced its financial results for the first quarter of 2025, reporting a 2% increase in revenue year-on-year, or 5% on a constant-currency basis, driven by its logistics and semiconductor businesses. The company also declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.08 per share and announced a CEO transition, with Matt Moschner set to succeed Robert J. Willett as CEO on June 27, 2025. Despite economic uncertainties and a downturn in the automotive market, Cognex maintained strong financial performance with a significant increase in operating income and net income per diluted share compared to the previous year.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jun 25, 2025