Cogent Communications (CCOI)
NASDAQ:CCOI
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Cogent Comms
(NASDAQ:CCOI)
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Rating:45Neutral
Price Target:
$15.50
▼(-34.41% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/05/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (sharp revenue contraction, losses, negative operating/free cash flow) and a stressed balance sheet with high leverage and negative equity. Technicals remain bearish with the stock trading below all key moving averages, while valuation support comes mainly from the high dividend yield and the earnings call showed strategic progress (wavelength growth, asset monetization, refinancing plans) but with meaningful near-term headwinds.
Positive Factors
Wavelength growth & on‑net mix shift
Rapid wavelength revenue and connection growth alongside a move to 62% on‑net sales indicates durable product diversification and higher‑margin services. A larger on‑net base spreads fixed network costs, supports sustainable margin expansion, and reduces reliance on low‑margin legacy off‑net revenue.
Negative Factors
High leverage and negative equity
Elevated gross and net debt with negative equity constrains strategic options and raises refinancing and covenant risk. High leverage increases sensitivity to interest rates and cyclical downturns, limits ability to invest organically, and could force asset sales or dilutive financings if deleveraging stalls.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Wavelength growth & on‑net mix shift
Rapid wavelength revenue and connection growth alongside a move to 62% on‑net sales indicates durable product diversification and higher‑margin services. A larger on‑net base spreads fixed network costs, supports sustainable margin expansion, and reduces reliance on low‑margin legacy off‑net revenue.
Read all positive factors
Cogent Comms (CCOI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$889.88M
Dividend Yield13.93%
Average Volume (3M)1.31M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.63
Revenue Growth-4.83%
EPS Growth11.31%
CountryUS
Employees1,899
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustryTelecommunications Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-3.55
Shares Outstanding50,077,663
10 Day Avg. Volume1,442,997
30 Day Avg. Volume1,305,532
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.51
Price to Book (P/B)-16.18
Price to Sales (P/S)1.06
P/FCF Ratio-5.22
Enterprise Value/Market Cap3.83
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.60
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit11.10
Enterprise Value/Ebitda18.19
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$21.40Price Target Upside-9.44% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)-3.59
Revenue Forecast (FY)$967.15M
Cogent Comms Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Cogent Communications Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides high-speed Internet access, private network, and data center colocation space services in North America, Europe, Asia, South America, Australia, and Africa. The company offer...
How the Company Makes Money
Cogent makes money primarily by selling recurring connectivity services delivered over its owned and leased fiber network. Its core revenue stream is subscription-based monthly recurring revenue (MRR) from dedicated Internet access and IP transit,...
Cogent Comms Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 04, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mixed picture: management reported strong execution on strategic items—rapid growth in wavelength revenues and customers, expansion of on‑net revenues and margin improvement year‑over‑year, IPv4 leasing strength, progress on data center monetization and an emerging path to refinance the 2027 notes. Offsetting these positives are near‑term headwinds: a small sequential revenue decline, a sequential EBITDA drop and higher SG&A this quarter, supply‑chain driven CapEx pressure and delayed customer acceptance of wavelength installs, and materially elevated leverage levels driven by Sprint acquisition legacy balances. Overall, the company is making clear strategic progress on product mix and capital structure but faces tangible operational and balance‑sheet challenges in the near term.Positive Updates
Progress on Data Center Monetization
Entered a nonbinding LOI for the sale of 10 former Sprint data centers with buyer due diligence essentially complete; expect closing early summer (June/early July). Company stated aggregate proceeds for the 10 centers are substantially more than $144 million and committed proceeds to Cogent Communications Group to accelerate delevering.
Negative Updates
Overall Revenue Contraction
Total revenue for the quarter was $239.2 million, down sequentially by $1.3 million (-0.6%). Management noted Q1 revenue growth was negative and declines were driven by acquired Sprint customers, though the decline is moderating.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Progress on Data Center Monetization
Entered a nonbinding LOI for the sale of 10 former Sprint data centers with buyer due diligence essentially complete; expect closing early summer (June/early July). Company stated aggregate proceeds for the 10 centers are substantially more than $144 million and committed proceeds to Cogent Communications Group to accelerate delevering.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company’s forward-looking framework calls for multiyear targets (not quarter‑to‑quarter) of 6%–8% long‑term average revenue growth and roughly 200 basis points of EBITDA margin expansion per year (management expects to be above that pace in 2026), with refinancing activity to be completed after the make‑whole period ends June 15, 2026 (plan to replace the $750M 2027 unsecured with $750M secured debt); current maturities noted include $600M secured due June 2032, $206M IPv4 ABS May 2029, $174.4M IPv4 April 2030 and $629M of IRU finance leases through 2046. Management expects to monetize Sprint data centers (LOI on 10 centers with aggregate proceeds “substantially more than $144M”) and commit proceeds to delever the Cogent Group; balance sheet at quarter end was ~$2.4B gross debt ($2.0B net), ~7.4x last‑12‑month adjusted EBITDA (net ~6.79x), with leverage metrics under various indentures cited (~6.1x/3.79x and 4.66x/2.9x and fixed coverage ~2.29x–3.0x). Wavelength targets: grow to 25% of North American long‑haul (currently ~3%); Q1 wavelength results: $13.6M revenue (+90.8% YoY, +12.3% seq), 2,263 connections (+71.2% YoY, +9.6% seq), sold in 581 locations to 492 customers, offered in 1,107 locations, ~30‑day provisioning, ARPU $2,093 and churn <0.5%.Cogent Comms Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
24
Negative
Balance Sheet
12
Very Negative
Cash Flow
18
Very Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 948.70M | 975.77M | 1.04B | 940.92M | 599.60M | 589.80M |
| Gross Profit | 307.44M | 170.62M | 394.27M | 396.69M | 371.45M | 363.46M |
| EBITDA | 187.51M | 186.58M | 161.69M | 1.56B | 229.29M | 218.72M |
| Net Income | -169.67M | -182.17M | -204.07M | 1.27B | 5.15M | 48.19M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.06B | 3.10B | 3.17B | 3.21B | 1.01B | 984.56M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 140.26M | 205.11M | 198.49M | 75.09M | 223.78M | 319.61M |
| Total Debt | 2.66B | 2.93B | 2.34B | 1.83B | 1.36B | 1.26B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.16B | 3.16B | 2.95B | 2.60B | 1.53B | 1.36B |
| Stockholders Equity | -104.16M | -63.85M | 222.85M | 609.56M | -518.63M | -373.10M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -207.82M | -198.15M | -203.64M | -112.29M | 94.74M | 100.34M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -32.10M | -10.58M | -8.64M | 17.34M | 173.71M | 170.26M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -75.72M | -87.57M | 21.49M | 76.73M | -78.97M | -69.92M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 105.27M | 62.90M | 105.92M | -257.85M | -144.85M | -140.82M |
Cogent Comms Technical Analysis
Negative
23.63
Price Trends
19.80
Negative
21.35
Negative
27.04
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.22
Positive
44.12
Neutral
75.44
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CCOI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 23.63 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.19, above the 50-day MA of 19.80, and below the 200-day MA of 27.04, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.22 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.12 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 75.44 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CCOI.
Cogent Comms Risk Analysis
Cogent Comms disclosed 46 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Cogent Comms reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Cogent Comms Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $1.32B | 14.58 | 26.17% | 0.47% | 3.31% | 2.91% | |
73 Outperform | $4.79B | 33.97 | 22.76% | 3.30% | 4.05% | -6.99% | |
61 Neutral | $4.42B | 8.30 | 2.69% | 0.39% | -56.04% | ― | |
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% | |
58 Neutral | $4.00B | 3.14 | -48.58% | ― | ― | ― | |
45 Neutral | $889.88M | -5.69 | 422.83% | 13.93% | -4.83% | 11.31% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
CCOI
Cogent Comms
17.77
-25.91
-59.31%
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TDS
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41.60
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Cogent Comms Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Cogent Comms Shareholders Approve Directors, Pay and Auditor
Positive
May 4, 2026
On May 1, 2026, Cogent Comms held its annual meeting in Washington, DC, with 38,736,164 of 50,102,364 eligible common shares represented in person or by proxy. Shareholders elected all nominated directors, including Dave Schaeffer and seven other ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.