Cogent Comms (CCOI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.13B
• Dividend Yield: 13.93%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.25M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.69
• Revenue Growth: -6.48%
• EPS Growth: -588.01%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,899
• Sector: Communication Services
• Sector Strength: 97
• Industry: Telecommunications Services
• EPS (TTM): -0.87
• Shares Outstanding: 49,121,160
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,001,727
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,245,118
• PEG Ratio: 0.15
• Price to Book (P/B): 16.44
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.54
• P/FCF Ratio: -17.99
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 3.77
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 4.39
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 12.12
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 23.26
• 1Y Price Target: $30.20
• Price Target Upside: 35.30% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 11
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 44 Neutral
• Price Target: $20.00 ▼(-10.39% Downside)

The score is primarily held down by weak financial performance (declining revenue, negative profitability, high leverage, and weak cash flow) and a bearish technical setup (price below key moving averages with negative MACD). Offsetting factors are a mixed but improving operational narrative from the earnings call (wavelength/EBITDA progress and asset monetization plans) and somewhat supportive headline yield/valuation signals, though these are constrained by losses and the dividend cut.

Positive Factors

Fiber Network Advantage

An extensive all‑fiber backbone is a durable competitive asset for bandwidth-intensive services. It lowers unit transport costs, enables scalable capacity and higher‑margin services (wavelength, Ethernet), fosters sticky enterprise relationships, and supports geographic expansion over multi‑year horizons.

Wavelength Revenue Momentum

Rapid wavelength uptake reflects structural demand for high‑capacity long‑haul connectivity and helps diversify revenue mix toward higher‑value offerings. Sustained growth can lift margins and support the company’s 6–8% long‑term revenue target if installations convert efficiently to billable revenue.

Management Incentive Alignment

Tighter compensation tied to multi‑year EBITDA performance and retention awards for senior leaders strengthens governance and execution focus. This alignment increases the likelihood management prioritizes deleveraging, margin improvement and execution of strategic asset monetization over time.

Negative Factors

Declining Revenue and Profitability

Sustained revenue declines and negative operating profitability weaken the business’s ability to self‑fund growth and reduce reliance on external financing. Over several quarters this erodes competitive flexibility, constrains investments in network upgrades, and makes margin recovery more challenging.

Very High Leverage

Elevated leverage materially limits financial flexibility, raises interest cost risk, and increases refinancing pressure. High debt ratios constrain capital allocation choices, slow investment in growth initiatives, and make the company vulnerable to demand shocks until leverage materially declines toward targets.

Weak Cash Generation

Poor free cash flow conversion undermines the company’s capacity to deleverage, fund network expansion, or sustain payouts without asset sales. Persistent weak cash generation forces reliance on monetizing data centers and external financing, which can be disruptive and may not fully offset structural cash shortfalls.

Cogent Comms Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Cogent Communications Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides high-speed Internet access, private network, and data center colocation space services in North America, Europe, Asia, South America, Australia, and Africa. The company offers on-net Internet access and private network services to law firms, financial services firms, and advertising and marketing firms, as well as heath care providers, educational institutions and other professional services businesses, other Internet service providers, telephone companies, cable television companies, Web hosting companies, media service providers, mobile phone operators, content delivery network companies, and commercial content and application service providers. It also provides Internet access and private network services to customers that are not located in buildings directly connected to its network; and on-net services to customers located in buildings that are physically connected to its network. In addition, the company offers off-net services to corporate customers using other carriers' circuits to provide the last mile portion of the link from the customers' premises to the network. Further, it operates data centers that allow its customers to collocate their equipment and access the network. The company operates 54 data centers and provides facilities to 3,035 buildings and on-net services to 1,817 to multi-tenant office buildings. It serves primarily to small and medium-sized businesses, communications service providers, and other bandwidth-intensive organizations. Cogent Communications Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Washington, the District of Columbia.

How the Company Makes Money

Cogent Communications generates revenue primarily through its subscription-based model, where customers pay for Internet access and related services on a recurring basis. Key revenue streams include dedicated Internet access, Ethernet transport services, and colocation services. The company also benefits from long-term contracts with its clients, which provide a steady and predictable income. Additionally, Cogent has strategic partnerships with other telecommunications providers and businesses that enhance its service offerings and expand its customer base, contributing further to its earnings. The focus on providing reliable and competitively priced services allows Cogent to attract and retain a diverse range of customers, from small businesses to large enterprises.

Cogent Comms Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Cogent Comms faces significant financial challenges, including declining revenues, negative profitability margins, and high leverage. The company's cash flow position is weak, raising concerns about its ability to sustain operations without external financing.

Income Statement

Cogent Comms has experienced declining revenue growth, with a negative growth rate of -3.44% in the TTM. The company is struggling with profitability, as indicated by negative net profit and EBIT margins. The gross profit margin has also decreased over time, reflecting challenges in maintaining cost efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals significant financial leverage, with a high debt-to-equity ratio of -58.14 in the TTM, indicating potential financial risk. The negative return on equity suggests inefficiencies in generating returns for shareholders. The equity ratio is also negative, highlighting a weak capital structure.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows a concerning trend with negative free cash flow growth and a negative free cash flow to net income ratio. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is low, indicating challenges in converting earnings into cash flow.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	968.34M	1.04B	940.92M	599.60M	589.80M	568.10M
Gross Profit	350.46M	394.27M	396.69M	371.45M	363.46M	348.95M
EBITDA	182.60M	161.69M	1.56B	229.29M	218.72M	156.28M
Net Income	-194.71M	-204.07M	1.27B	5.15M	48.19M	6.22M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.15B	3.17B	3.21B	1.01B	984.56M	1.00B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	147.09M	198.49M	75.09M	223.78M	319.61M	371.30M
Total Debt	2.65B	2.34B	1.83B	1.36B	1.26B	1.21B
Total Liabilities	3.19B	2.95B	2.60B	1.53B	1.36B	1.29B
Stockholders Equity	-39.17M	222.85M	609.56M	-518.63M	-373.10M	-293.17M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-186.70M	-203.64M	-112.29M	94.74M	100.34M	84.37M
Operating Cash Flow	9.95M	-8.64M	17.34M	173.71M	170.26M	140.32M
Investing Cash Flow	-96.64M	21.49M	76.73M	-78.97M	-69.92M	-55.95M
Financing Cash Flow	-1.41M	105.92M	-257.85M	-144.85M	-140.82M	-116.00M

Cogent Comms Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 22.32
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CCOI, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 22.32 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 22.11, below the 50-day MA of 22.73, and below the 200-day MA of 39.29, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.26 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 54.84 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 89.72 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for CCOI.

Cogent Comms Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
IRDM	71 Outperform	$2.03B	16.92	22.59%	3.30%	7.30%	21.31%
IDT	70 Outperform	$1.28B	15.83	27.94%	0.47%	2.52%	10.02%
Sector *	60 Neutral	$48.67B	4.58	-11.27%	4.14%	2.83%	-41.78%
LBTYA	57 Neutral	$3.55B	-0.97	―	―	―	―
TDS	56 Neutral	$4.49B	-39.06	1.73%	0.39%	-22.79%	79.90%
CCOI	44 Neutral	$1.13B	-5.69	-136.94%	13.93%	-6.48%	-588.01%

Cogent Comms Corporate Events

Cogent Comms extends CEO contract, tightens incentive alignment

On December 31, 2025, Cogent Communications Holdings, Inc. amended Chief Executive Officer David Schaeffer’s employment agreement, extending his term through December 31, 2028, resetting his annual salary to $1 million, and capping his annual cash incentive at a $1.25 million target tied to year‑over‑year EBITDA growth, with no bonus payable if EBITDA growth is zero or negative. The board also established a multi‑year equity package for Schaeffer, including substantial time‑vesting and performance‑vesting restricted stock awards for 2026–2028 that depend on continued employment and on achieving positive compound annual EBITDA growth, while granting additional long‑term restricted stock retention awards to the CFO, chief legal officer and chief revenue officer that vest in 2029, collectively reinforcing leadership retention and aligning top executives’ compensation more tightly with profitability and growth metrics.

The most recent analyst rating on (CCOI) stock is a Hold with a $18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cogent Comms stock, see the CCOI Stock Forecast page.