Cogent Communications (CCOI)
NASDAQ:CCOI
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Cogent Comms
(NASDAQ:CCOI)
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Rating:47Neutral
Price Target:
$18.00
▼(-8.72% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/21/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (losses, negative operating/free cash flow, and high leverage with negative equity) and a bearish technical setup (price below all key moving averages with negative MACD). These are partially offset by a high dividend yield and a moderately constructive earnings call focused on margin progress, refinancing, and deleveraging—though execution and refinancing risks remain significant.
Positive Factors
On-net revenue mix
A sustained shift to on‑net revenue increases exposure to higher‑margin, controllable services and reduces dependence on third‑party transport. Over 2–6 months this structurally supports gross margin resilience, lower churn and more predictable unit economics as on‑net sales now form the majority of revenue.
Negative Factors
High leverage & refinancing risk
Material absolute leverage and a sizable upcoming $750M 2027 note refinance create structural refinancing risk. Even with planned secured refi, high leverage constrains strategic optionality, limits organic deleveraging speed, and delays durable capital‑return policies until leverage falls toward targets.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
On-net revenue mix
A sustained shift to on‑net revenue increases exposure to higher‑margin, controllable services and reduces dependence on third‑party transport. Over 2–6 months this structurally supports gross margin resilience, lower churn and more predictable unit economics as on‑net sales now form the majority of revenue.
Read all positive factors
Cogent Comms (CCOI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.02B
Dividend Yield13.93%
Average Volume (3M)1.09M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.56
Revenue Growth-6.48%
EPS Growth-588.01%
CountryUS
Employees1,899
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustryTelecommunications Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.64
Shares Outstanding50,102,364
10 Day Avg. Volume827,752
30 Day Avg. Volume1,088,308
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.51
Price to Book (P/B)-16.18
Price to Sales (P/S)1.06
P/FCF Ratio-5.22
Enterprise Value/Market Cap3.66
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.92
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit12.21
Enterprise Value/Ebitda19.96
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$24.67Price Target Upside25.10% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)-3.65
Revenue Forecast (FY)$982.26M
Cogent Comms Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Cogent Communications Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides high-speed Internet access, private network, and data center colocation space services in North America, Europe, Asia, South America, Australia, and Africa. The company offer...
How the Company Makes Money
Cogent makes money primarily by selling recurring connectivity services delivered over its owned and leased fiber network. Its core revenue stream is subscription-based monthly recurring revenue (MRR) from dedicated Internet access and IP transit,...
Cogent Comms Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 20, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presents a mixed but constructive picture: management showcased clear operational progress — margin expansion, EBITDA growth, strong wavelength and IPv4 leasing momentum, improved on‑net mix, and a plan to reduce capital intensity — while also acknowledging material challenges from the rapid attrition of Sprint-acquired revenues, a sizable infrastructure EBITDA drag, continued high leverage and an upcoming debt refinancing, and pricing pressure on some product metrics. Management’s tone was optimistic about future revenue mix improvements, continued margin expansion (albeit at a moderated pace), and active data‑center monetization and refinancing plans, but several execution and timing risks remain.Positive Updates
Wavelength Revenue and Footprint Expansion
Wavelength revenue was $12.1M in Q4, up 74% year-over-year and ~19% sequentially; full-year 2025 wavelength revenue was $38.5M, +100% YoY. The service footprint increased to ~1,096 enabled locations (1,068 at year-end reported) with ~2,064 wavelength connections (end of quarter) and provisioning intervals of ~30 days. Wavelength customers grew 18% sequentially and 85% YoY for the year.
Negative Updates
Significant Attrition of Sprint-Acquired Revenue
Sprint wireline acquired revenue declined from a $118M quarterly run-rate at close (May 2023) to ~$43M this quarter — a ~$75M quarterly decline (-64% since close). Sprint-acquired revenues now represent ~18% of total revenues (down from 42% at close).
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Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Wavelength Revenue and Footprint Expansion
Wavelength revenue was $12.1M in Q4, up 74% year-over-year and ~19% sequentially; full-year 2025 wavelength revenue was $38.5M, +100% YoY. The service footprint increased to ~1,096 enabled locations (1,068 at year-end reported) with ~2,064 wavelength connections (end of quarter) and provisioning intervals of ~30 days. Wavelength customers grew 18% sequentially and 85% YoY for the year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management’s guidance was that growth should normalize to a multiyear revenue CAGR of about 6–8% with EBITDA-margin expansion of roughly 200 basis points per year (after nearly 800 bps of expansion in 2025); they plan to refinance the $750M 2027 unsecured notes with $750M of secured notes after the make‑whole period in June and target reducing net leverage to ~4x before materially restoring capital returns. Key operating targets and progress cited: on‑net revenue mix has risen from 47% in 2023 to roughly 61% this quarter (58.4% for the year) while off‑net has fallen from 48% to ~39% (non‑core <1%); Wavelength footprint now wave‑enabled in ~1,096 locations (1,068 at year‑end), sold in 518 locations, with Q4 Wavelength revenue $12.1M (+74% YoY, +19% sequential), full‑year $38.5M (+100% YoY), 2,064 wavelength connections (up 18% sequential) and an ambition to capture ~25% of the North American wavelength market. Financial and cash‑flow metrics referenced include Q revenue $200.14M and FY revenue $975.8M, EBITDA Classic FY2025 ~$192.8M (margin 19.8% vs 11.9% FY2024), EBITDA as‑adjusted Q4 $76.7M (31.9% margin) and FY as‑adjusted margin ~30%, gross debt at par ~$2.4B and net debt ~$1.9B (including $203.1M due from T‑Mobile), adjusted gross debt/EBITDA ~7.35 (vs 7.45 prior quarter) and net debt/EBITDA ~6.64 (vs 6.65), CapEx Q4 $37M and FY $187.6M, IPv4 leasing revenue $64.5M (+44% YoY) with 15.3M addresses leased (title to 37.8M), ARPUs: on‑net $509, off‑net $1,234, wavelength $2,114, IPv4 $0.30/address, monthly churns on‑net 1.2% / off‑net 1.9% / wavelength <0.5%, and IP traffic +10% YoY (+4% sequential).Cogent Comms Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
28
Negative
Balance Sheet
18
Very Negative
Cash Flow
22
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 975.77M | 1.04B | 940.92M | 599.60M | 589.80M |
| Gross Profit | 170.62M | 394.27M | 396.69M | 371.45M | 363.46M |
| EBITDA | 186.58M | 161.69M | 1.56B | 229.29M | 218.72M |
| Net Income | -182.17M | -204.07M | 1.27B | 5.15M | 48.19M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 3.10B | 3.17B | 3.21B | 1.01B | 984.56M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 205.11M | 198.49M | 75.09M | 223.78M | 319.61M |
| Total Debt | 2.93B | 2.34B | 1.83B | 1.36B | 1.26B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.16B | 2.95B | 2.60B | 1.53B | 1.36B |
| Stockholders Equity | -63.85M | 222.85M | 609.56M | -518.63M | -373.10M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -198.15M | -203.64M | -112.29M | 94.74M | 100.34M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -10.58M | -8.64M | 17.34M | 173.71M | 170.26M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -87.57M | 21.49M | 76.73M | -78.97M | -69.92M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 62.90M | 105.92M | -257.85M | -144.85M | -140.82M |
Cogent Comms Technical Analysis
Neutral
19.72
Price Trends
21.44
Negative
21.35
Negative
31.02
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.44
Negative
53.26
Neutral
76.79
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CCOI, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 19.72 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.98, below the 50-day MA of 21.44, and below the 200-day MA of 31.02, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.44 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.26 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 76.79 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for CCOI.
Cogent Comms Risk Analysis
Cogent Comms disclosed 46 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Cogent Comms reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Cogent Comms Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $1.25B | 14.58 | 26.17% | 0.47% | 2.52% | 10.02% | |
73 Outperform | $3.64B | 16.30 | 24.01% | 3.30% | 7.30% | 21.31% | |
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% | |
56 Neutral | $4.85B | -757.27 | -0.13% | 0.39% | -22.79% | 79.90% | |
55 Neutral | $4.09B | -0.56 | ― | ― | ― | ― | |
47 Neutral | $1.02B | -8.36 | -842.48% | 13.93% | -6.48% | -588.01% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
CCOI
Cogent Comms
20.44
-27.65
-57.49%
IDT
IDT
50.01
2.50
5.27%
IRDM
Iridium Communications
34.65
11.15
47.46%
LBTYA
Liberty Global A
12.35
1.78
16.84%
TDS
Telephone & Data Systems
45.66
10.38
29.42%
Cogent Comms Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Cogent Comms extends CEO contract, tightens incentive alignment
Positive
Jan 7, 2026
On December 31, 2025, Cogent Communications Holdings, Inc. amended Chief Executive Officer David Schaeffer’s employment agreement, extending his term through December 31, 2028, resetting his annual salary to $1 million, and capping his annua...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.