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Iridium Communications
(NASDAQ:IRDM)
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Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
$50.00
▲(9.22% Upside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:07/22/26
IRDM’s score is primarily supported by strong profitability and cash generation, plus a constructive earnings outlook with reaffirmed guidance and long-term free-cash-flow targets. The main offsets are balance-sheet risk from high leverage and a premium valuation (high P/E), while technical signals are mixed and near-term momentum appears subdued.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Consistent, sizable operating cash flow and multi-hundred-million-dollar free cash flow provide durable funding for capex, product development, and deleveraging. This supports long-term investment in network refreshes and shareholder returns without relying on volatile capital markets.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage and reduced equity cushion
High leverage amplifies returns but meaningfully reduces financial flexibility and increases refinancing and covenant risk. A diminished equity base limits shock absorption, making the company more sensitive to revenue or cash-flow setbacks and constraining strategic optionality.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
Consistent, sizable operating cash flow and multi-hundred-million-dollar free cash flow provide durable funding for capex, product development, and deleveraging. This supports long-term investment in network refreshes and shareholder returns without relying on volatile capital markets.
Read all positive factors
Iridium Communications Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Type
Separates recurring service revenue (airtime, subscriptions) from one-time items (equipment sales, installation) and other income, showing how predictable the company’s cash flow is. A larger share of recurring revenue signals steadier earnings and less vulnerability to lumpy hardware sales cycles.
Separates recurring service revenue (airtime, subscriptions) from one-time items (equipment sales, installation) and other income, showing how predictable the company’s cash flow is. A larger share of recurring revenue signals steadier earnings and less vulnerability to lumpy hardware sales cycles.
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The Fly
The FlyIridium Communications (IRDM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.70B
Dividend Yield1.26%
Average Volume (3M)2.77M
Price to Earnings (P/E)51.6
Beta (1Y)0.90
Revenue Growth3.10%
EPS Growth-12.30%
CountryUS
Employees975
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustryTelecommunications Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.88
Shares Outstanding105,960,380
10 Day Avg. Volume1,548,160
30 Day Avg. Volume2,765,270
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.29
Price to Book (P/B)4.03
Price to Sales (P/S)2.14
P/FCF Ratio6.22
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$48.00Price Target Upside4.85% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)1.06
Revenue Forecast (FY)$911.08M
Iridium Communications Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Iridium Communications Inc. provides critical mobile voice and data communication services and products across the globe. The company serves a broad spectrum of clients, including businesses, both the United States and international governments, n...
How the Company Makes Money
Iridium primarily makes money by selling satellite connectivity and related services delivered over its LEO constellation, with revenue generally generated through recurring service subscriptions/usage and, to a lesser extent, equipment and other ...
Iridium Communications Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 23, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 15, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a generally positive outlook driven by steady top-line growth (service revenue +2%), strong product pipeline momentum (Iridium 9604, PNT ASIC, NTN Direct) and improving ARPU in voice and data (+7%). Management reaffirmed full-year guidance, highlighted robust engineering and government revenue growth, and projected meaningful free cash flow over the decade. Headwinds include a 5% decline in Q1 OEBITDA (partly driven by a one-time compensation accounting change with a $17M FY impact), a 5% decline in commercial broadband, higher Q1 SG&A, and uncertainty on the timing of large PNT contract revenue. Overall, the positives — recurring revenue growth, product/standards progress, and cash flow outlook — outweigh the near-term operational and timing challenges.Positive Updates
Revenue and Service Revenue Growth
Total revenue and service revenue each grew 2% year-over-year. Service revenue reached $130.4 million in Q1 and management reiterated full-year service revenue guidance of flat to +2% for 2026.
Negative Updates
Quarterly OEBITDA Decline and Compensation Impact
OEBITDA declined 5% year-over-year to $116.3 million. The quarter included a $4.2 million hit from moving to annual cash-only incentive compensation; management expects a $17 million full-year OEBITDA impact from this change in 2026.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue and Service Revenue Growth
Total revenue and service revenue each grew 2% year-over-year. Service revenue reached $130.4 million in Q1 and management reiterated full-year service revenue guidance of flat to +2% for 2026.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Iridium reaffirmed 2026 guidance calling for service revenue to be flat to up 2% and operational EBITDA of $480–$490 million (or $497–$507 million excluding the $17 million OEBITDA hit from switching annual incentive compensation to cash); management also projects pro forma free cash flow of about $318 million for 2026 and $1.5–$1.8 billion of free cash flow over the balance of the decade. In Q1 the company reported OEBITDA of $116.3 million (down 5% YoY), total service revenue of $130.4 million (up 2%), voice & data $57.4 million (up 3%) with ARPU roughly $48 (up 7% YoY), commercial IoT $46.0 million (up 5%), engineering & support $40.8 million, government services $27.6 million, equipment sales $20.2 million, Q1 CapEx $30 million, cash and cash equivalents $111.6 million, net leverage 3.4x OEBITDA, an expected EMSS revenue of $110.5 million for the year, full‑year equipment sales target of ~$80–$90 million, and mid‑single‑digit growth expected for IFC/IoT revenue.Iridium Communications Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
54
Neutral
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 884.17M | 871.66M | 830.68M | 790.72M | 721.03M | 614.50M |
| Gross Profit | 622.40M | 674.08M | 396.99M | 283.10M | 216.40M | 158.67M |
| EBITDA | 424.30M | 440.45M | 415.67M | 380.07M | 386.08M | 350.45M |
| Net Income | 93.27M | 114.37M | 112.78M | 15.41M | 8.72M | -9.32M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.57B | 2.53B | 2.67B | 2.66B | 2.95B | 3.18B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 184.21M | 96.50M | 93.53M | 71.87M | 168.77M | 320.91M |
| Total Debt | 1.76B | 1.76B | 1.81B | 1.50B | 1.51B | 1.62B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.09B | 2.07B | 2.09B | 1.77B | 1.83B | 1.89B |
| Stockholders Equity | 472.51M | 462.60M | 576.64M | 888.10M | 1.13B | 1.29B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 288.32M | 299.79M | 306.06M | 241.43M | 273.46M | 260.73M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 395.14M | 400.07M | 375.95M | 314.91M | 344.73M | 302.87M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -106.81M | -100.28M | -180.60M | -83.49M | -121.27M | -36.38M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -184.32M | -299.91M | -170.48M | -327.05M | -374.98M | -182.47M |
Iridium Communications Technical Analysis
Positive
45.78
Price Trends
47.81
Negative
41.08
Positive
29.95
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.17
Positive
43.73
Neutral
21.95
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For IRDM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 45.78 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 48.27, below the 50-day MA of 47.81, and above the 200-day MA of 29.95, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.17 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.73 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 21.95 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for IRDM.
Iridium Communications Risk Analysis
Iridium Communications disclosed 43 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Iridium Communications reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Iridium Communications Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $1.67B | 20.82 | 24.73% | 0.40% | 4.24% | -14.30% | |
63 Neutral | $4.70B | 51.64 | 20.12% | 1.31% | 3.10% | -12.30% | |
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% | |
60 Neutral | $10.12B | -518.30 | -3.21% | ― | 11.47% | 75.70% | |
55 Neutral | $2.78B | 14.73 | -87.55% | ― | -10.11% | ― | |
49 Neutral | $524.73M | 39.17 | 13.03% | ― | 58.84% | ― | |
47 Neutral | $635.49M | -3.65 | 422.83% | 9.06% | -4.83% | 11.31% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
IRDM
Iridium Communications
47.64
23.80
99.85%
CCOI
Cogent Comms
13.24
-30.97
-70.05%
GSAT
Globalstar
80.09
56.60
240.95%
IDT
IDT
65.94
7.31
12.48%
GOGO
Gogo
4.14
-11.73
-73.93%
IHS
IHS Holding
8.20
1.70
26.15%
Iridium Communications Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Iridium Plans Rocket Lab Merger, Boosts Executive Retention
Positive
Jul 7, 2026
On July 2, 2026, Iridium completed its acquisition of the remaining 61% stake in Aireon Holdings for about $366.7 million, paying half in cash and deferring the rest via a one-year, interest-free, seller term loan secured on Aireon’s equity....
Business Operations and StrategyDelistings and Listing ChangesM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Iridium Communications to Be Acquired by Rocket Lab
Positive
Jun 29, 2026
On June 28, 2026, Iridium Communications Inc. agreed to be acquired by Rocket Lab Corporation in a cash-and-stock merger valuing Iridium at about $8.0 billion, with Iridium shareholders to receive $27 in cash plus Rocket Lab stock per share subjec...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesDividendsShareholder Meetings
Iridium Communications Holds Annual Meeting and Declares Dividend
Positive
May 20, 2026
Iridium Communications held its virtual annual meeting on May 20, 2026, at which shareholders elected eleven directors to one-year terms ending at the 2027 annual meeting and approved, on an advisory basis, the compensation of the company’s ...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Iridium to Fully Acquire Aireon, Expanding Aviation Capabilities
Positive
May 14, 2026
On May 13, 2026, Iridium agreed to acquire the remaining 61% of Aireon for about $366.7 million, to be paid half at closing and half one year later via a seller loan, and will assume roughly $155 million of Aireon debt. The deal, announced publicl...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.