Sierra Bancorp (BSRR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $511.12M
• Dividend Yield: 3.03%
• Average Volume (3M): 27.96K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.9
• Beta (1Y): 0.91
• Revenue Growth: -0.65%
• EPS Growth: 14.14%
• Country: US
• Employees: 489
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 0.97
• Shares Outstanding: 13,482,458
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 32,485
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 27,960
• PEG Ratio: 0.99
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.21
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.96
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.83
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.30
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.98
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 7.27
• 1Y Price Target: $38.83
• Price Target Upside: 2.43% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: $38.00 ▲(0.24% Upside)

Overall score is driven primarily by mixed financial performance (profitability/revenue and cash flow headwinds offset by stable balance sheet and improved leverage). Technicals are supportive with price above key moving averages and positive MACD, while valuation and dividend yield add a modest tailwind; the recent dividend hike is an additional positive.

Positive Factors

Improved leverage / balance sheet stability

Reduced leverage and a healthy equity ratio lower financing risk and increase capital flexibility. Over the next 2–6 months this supports the bank’s ability to absorb credit stress, fund lending opportunities, and maintain capital returns without needing abrupt balance sheet adjustments.

Durable dividend policy and capital return discipline

A long uninterrupted dividend track record plus a recent increase signals disciplined capital allocation and management confidence in ongoing earnings and capital adequacy. This strengthens investor trust and suggests sustainable shareholder returns absent major capital shocks.

Strong gross profit margin / cost management

Sustained strong gross margin reflects effective pricing and cost controls, providing a structural buffer against revenue volatility. Over months ahead, margin strength helps preserve net income and frees cash for dividends, loan growth, or provisioning as needed.

Negative Factors

Material revenue decline

A pronounced TTM drop in revenue reduces scale and limits ability to cover fixed costs or invest in growth. Persisting revenue weakness over the next 2–6 months could pressure margins, slow loan origination funding capacity, and tighten operational flexibility.

Weak cash conversion and FCF growth

Lower free cash flow growth and poor operating-cash-to-income conversion indicate challenges turning accounting profits into spendable cash. Structurally weaker cash generation can constrain dividend sustainability, limit lending capacity, and increase reliance on external funding in stressed periods.

Declining profitability / ROE compression

A falling ROE and declining net profit margins point to reduced efficiency in deploying shareholder capital. If this trend persists over several quarters it can limit internal capital formation, pressure dividend policy, and weaken the return profile versus peers, affecting long-term competitiveness.

Sierra Bancorp Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Sierra Bancorp operates as the bank holding company for Bank of the Sierra that provides retail and commercial banking services to individuals and businesses in California. The company accepts various deposit products, such as checking accounts, savings accounts, money market demand accounts, time deposits, retirement accounts, and sweep accounts. Its loan products include agricultural, commercial, consumer, real estate, construction, and mortgage loans. The company also offers automated teller machines; electronic point-of-sale payment alternatives; online and automated telephone banking services; and remote deposit capture and automated payroll services for business customers. As of December 31, 2021, it operated 35 full-service branches, an online branch, a loan production office, an agricultural credit center, and an SBA center. Sierra Bancorp was founded in 1977 and is headquartered in Porterville, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Sierra Bancorp generates revenue primarily through the interest income earned on loans, which includes commercial loans, residential mortgages, and consumer loans. Additionally, the company earns interest from investment securities. Another significant revenue stream comes from non-interest income, which includes fees from deposit accounts, service charges, and transaction fees. The bank also benefits from its investment in various financial products and services, allowing it to diversify its income sources. Partnerships with local businesses and agricultural entities further enhance its lending activities and deposit growth, contributing to the overall financial performance of the company.

Sierra Bancorp Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mixed fundamentals: strong gross margin and a stable balance sheet with improved leverage, but TTM profitability and revenue growth have weakened, and cash generation/conversion metrics are softer.

Income Statement

Sierra Bancorp's income statement shows a mixed performance. The gross profit margin is strong, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin has declined in the TTM, reflecting challenges in maintaining profitability. The revenue growth rate has significantly decreased in the TTM, suggesting potential revenue generation issues. EBIT and EBITDA margins are inconsistent, with a notable drop in the TTM, indicating operational challenges.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a stable equity position with a healthy equity ratio. The debt-to-equity ratio has improved significantly in the TTM, indicating reduced leverage and financial risk. However, the return on equity has decreased, suggesting less efficient use of equity capital in generating profits.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows a decline in free cash flow growth in the TTM, indicating potential cash generation issues. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is low, suggesting challenges in converting income into cash. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio remains strong, indicating effective cash management relative to net income.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	149.18M	191.14M	168.93M	142.49M	131.43M
Gross Profit	149.18M	134.03M	114.48M	119.68M	131.03M
EBITDA	56.40M	56.75M	49.70M	48.45M	61.47M
Net Income	42.33M	40.56M	34.84M	33.66M	43.01M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.83B	3.61B	3.73B	3.61B	3.37B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.05B	756.63M	1.10B	1.01B	1.23B
Total Debt	49.48M	274.09M	552.59M	412.86M	191.38M
Total Liabilities	3.46B	3.26B	3.39B	3.31B	3.01B
Stockholders Equity	364.86M	357.30M	338.10M	303.58M	362.49M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	56.00M	51.83M	32.30M	52.28M
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	57.15M	53.24M	33.57M	52.66M
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	141.23M	-83.69M	-481.00M	20.62M
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	-176.32M	31.92M	267.03M	112.83M

Sierra Bancorp Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 37.91
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BSRR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 37.91 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 35.00, above the 50-day MA of 33.61, and above the 200-day MA of 29.81, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.90 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 68.56 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 81.19 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BSRR.

Sierra Bancorp Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CWBC	74 Outperform	$483.61M	12.52	8.91%	2.12%	32.03%	170.90%
FRBA	72 Outperform	$427.54M	9.74	10.03%	1.41%	9.76%	4.43%
BMRC	70 Outperform	$443.89M	-12.29	2.24%	3.76%	23.93%	―
BSRR	69 Neutral	$511.12M	11.86	11.07%	3.03%	-0.65%	14.14%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
CIVB	60 Neutral	$478.57M	9.30	9.73%	2.96%	3.49%	33.86%
BRBS	49 Neutral	$398.89M	41.13	1.29%	―	-15.07%	―

Sierra Bancorp Corporate Events

Sierra Bancorp boosts quarterly dividend, extends long streak

On January 29, 2026, Sierra Bancorp’s board approved a regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.26 per share, a 4% increase, or $0.01 per share, over the prior quarter’s payout, following its review of financial performance and capital for the quarter ended December 31, 2025. The dividend, payable on February 17, 2026 to shareholders of record as of February 9, 2026, underscores the company’s long-standing commitment to returning capital to investors, marking its 108th consecutive quarterly cash dividend and extending an uninterrupted dividend record that dates back to 1987.

The most recent analyst rating on (BSRR) stock is a Buy with a $41.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sierra Bancorp stock, see the BSRR Stock Forecast page.

Sierra Bancorp Executives to Attend Investor Event

Sierra Bancorp announced that its President and CEO, Kevin J. McPhaill, along with Executive Vice President and CFO, Christopher G. Treece, will participate in the Keefe, Bruyette and Woods Virtual West Coast Bank Field Trip on November 19, 2025. They will engage with current and prospective investors, potentially impacting investor relations and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (BSRR) stock is a Hold with a $31.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sierra Bancorp stock, see the BSRR Stock Forecast page.

Sierra Bancorp Announces Leadership Transition Plan

On November 5, 2025, Sierra Bancorp announced the upcoming retirement of Cindy Dabney, Senior Vice President & Chief Accounting Officer, effective January 5, 2026. In response, Christopher Treece, the current Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer, will take over as Principal Accounting Officer, with no changes to his compensation.

The most recent analyst rating on (BSRR) stock is a Hold with a $31.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sierra Bancorp stock, see the BSRR Stock Forecast page.