Sierra Bancorp (BSRR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $485.10M
• Dividend Yield: 3.03%
• Average Volume (3M): 27.96K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.98
• Revenue Growth: -0.65%
• EPS Growth: 14.14%
• Country: US
• Employees: 489
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 0.97
• Shares Outstanding: 13,482,458
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 32,485
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 27,960
• PEG Ratio: 0.99
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.21
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.18
• P/FCF Ratio: 13.09
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.79
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 4.45
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.09
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 14.87
• 1Y Price Target: $38.83
• Price Target Upside: 7.93% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): 3.6
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $163.07M

• Rating: 64 Neutral
• Price Target: $38.00 ▲(5.61% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/28/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/28/26

The score is driven primarily by solid underlying profitability and improving 2025 revenue momentum, tempered by increased/volatile leverage and a notable 2025 cash-flow step-down. Valuation is supportive (low-teens P/E plus ~2.8% yield), while technicals are mixed with neutral momentum and slight near-term weakness. A recent dividend increase is a modest positive corporate signal.

Positive Factors

Consistent profitability

Sierra Bancorp has delivered steady net margins (~20–24%) and mid‑teens ROE stability (~10–12%), providing durable earnings power. That consistency supports internal capital generation, dividend coverage, and resilience to normal loan cycle volatility over the next several months.

Revenue re-acceleration

A material revenue pickup in 2025 (~+6.7%) signals regained growth momentum in lending and fee businesses. Sustained top-line growth supports margin recovery potential and creates room to invest in technology and relationship banking, improving structural earnings visibility over 2–6 months.

Reliable dividend policy

A 108‑quarter dividend streak and a recent 4% increase reflect disciplined capital allocation and management confidence in earnings and capital adequacy. This durable shareholder‑return signal supports investor trust and indicates commitment to sustained cash distributions.

Negative Factors

Elevated leverage

Leverage has increased and become more volatile, reducing balance‑sheet flexibility. Higher debt‑to‑equity raises funding and credit risk, constrains capital buffers, and could amplify stress if loan losses or funding costs rise, weighing on strategic options over coming months.

Weaker cash generation

A sizable drop in operating cash flow and a negative free‑cash‑flow move reduce internal funding for loans, investments, and dividends. Persistent cash volatility limits flexibility for growth or reserve building and makes capital management more sensitive to near‑term shocks.

Margin compression since 2021

Material margin compression since 2021 suggests pressure from funding costs, pricing, or competitive dynamics. If structural, lower margins will cap return on assets and equity, limiting the firm's ability to rebuild reserves or accelerate investment without higher revenue or cost improvements.

Sierra Bancorp Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Sierra Bancorp operates as the bank holding company for Bank of the Sierra that provides retail and commercial banking services to individuals and businesses in California. The company accepts various deposit products, such as checking accounts, savings accounts, money market demand accounts, time deposits, retirement accounts, and sweep accounts. Its loan products include agricultural, commercial, consumer, real estate, construction, and mortgage loans. The company also offers automated teller machines; electronic point-of-sale payment alternatives; online and automated telephone banking services; and remote deposit capture and automated payroll services for business customers. As of December 31, 2021, it operated 35 full-service branches, an online branch, a loan production office, an agricultural credit center, and an SBA center. Sierra Bancorp was founded in 1977 and is headquartered in Porterville, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Sierra Bancorp generates revenue primarily through the interest income earned on loans, which includes commercial loans, residential mortgages, and consumer loans. Additionally, the company earns interest from investment securities. Another significant revenue stream comes from non-interest income, which includes fees from deposit accounts, service charges, and transaction fees. The bank also benefits from its investment in various financial products and services, allowing it to diversify its income sources. Partnerships with local businesses and agricultural entities further enhance its lending activities and deposit growth, contributing to the overall financial performance of the company.

Sierra Bancorp Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Profitable and fairly consistent earnings (net margin generally ~20–24%) with revenue re-accelerating in 2025 (~+6.7%). Offsetting this, balance-sheet leverage has become elevated/volatile (debt-to-equity ~1.42 in 2025 vs. ~0.77 in 2024) and 2025 operating/free cash flow stepped down materially, reducing financial flexibility.

Income Statement

Revenue has grown steadily over the last several years, with a notable re-acceleration in 2025 (up ~6.7% vs. near-flat growth in 2024). Profitability remains solid for a regional bank, with net profit margin holding around ~20–24% in most years, though it has compressed from the 2021 peak (net margin ~33% and very strong operating profitability). Overall, the income statement shows healthy earnings power and consistency, but margins have trended lower since 2021 and have not fully recovered.

Balance Sheet

Returns on equity are steady and respectable (roughly ~10–12% across the period), indicating consistent profitability on the equity base. However, leverage has become more volatile: debt-to-equity moved from ~0.77 in 2024 to ~1.42 in 2025 (and was ~1.63 in 2023), which raises balance-sheet risk and reduces flexibility if credit conditions weaken. Asset growth is positive, but the higher and fluctuating leverage profile is the key offset to otherwise stable fundamentals.

Cash Flow

Free cash flow has generally tracked earnings well (free cash flow roughly in line with net income in each year), which supports earnings quality. That said, cash generation has been choppy: operating cash flow fell materially in 2025 (to ~$33.7M from ~$57.2M in 2024) and free cash flow growth turned negative in 2025 (down ~16.8%), following other down years earlier in the period. Overall cash conversion is decent, but volatility and the 2025 step-down temper the score.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	201.98M	191.14M	168.93M	142.49M	131.43M
Gross Profit	149.18M	134.03M	114.48M	119.68M	131.03M
EBITDA	56.40M	56.75M	49.70M	48.45M	61.47M
Net Income	42.33M	40.56M	34.84M	33.66M	43.01M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.83B	3.61B	3.73B	3.61B	3.37B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.05B	756.63M	1.10B	1.01B	1.23B
Total Debt	519.05M	274.09M	552.59M	412.86M	191.38M
Total Liabilities	3.46B	3.26B	3.39B	3.31B	3.01B
Stockholders Equity	364.86M	357.30M	338.10M	303.58M	362.49M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	33.70M	56.00M	51.83M	32.30M	52.28M
Operating Cash Flow	33.70M	57.15M	53.24M	33.57M	52.66M
Investing Cash Flow	-183.49M	141.23M	-83.69M	-481.00M	20.62M
Financing Cash Flow	184.75M	-176.32M	31.92M	267.03M	112.83M

Sierra Bancorp Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 35.98
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BSRR, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 35.98 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 36.93, above the 50-day MA of 35.00, and above the 200-day MA of 30.50, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.50 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.73 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 33.58 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for BSRR.

Sierra Bancorp Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CWBC	74 Outperform	$445.10M	11.62	8.91%	2.12%	32.03%	170.90%
FRBA	72 Outperform	$400.14M	9.15	10.03%	1.41%	9.76%	4.43%
BMRC	70 Outperform	$400.60M	-11.09	2.24%	3.76%	23.93%	―
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
BSRR	64 Neutral	$485.10M	11.57	11.07%	3.03%	-0.65%	14.14%
CIVB	60 Neutral	$459.84M	9.02	9.73%	2.96%	3.49%	33.86%
BRBS	49 Neutral	$371.44M	38.30	1.29%	―	-15.07%	―

Sierra Bancorp Corporate Events

Sierra Bancorp Leaders to Attend Janney CEO Forum

Sierra Bancorp announced that President and CEO Kevin J. McPhaill and Executive Vice President and CFO Christopher G. Treece will attend the Janney West Coast CEO Forum on February 4–5, 2026, where they plan to meet with current and prospective investors. The company has made the investor presentation materials to be used at the conference available on its website, signaling an effort to enhance transparency and engagement with the investment community, though the furnished information is expressly not deemed filed for securities law liability purposes.

The most recent analyst rating on (BSRR) stock is a Hold with a $38.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sierra Bancorp stock, see the BSRR Stock Forecast page.

Sierra Bancorp boosts quarterly dividend, extends long streak

On January 29, 2026, Sierra Bancorp’s board approved a regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.26 per share, a 4% increase, or $0.01 per share, over the prior quarter’s payout, following its review of financial performance and capital for the quarter ended December 31, 2025. The dividend, payable on February 17, 2026 to shareholders of record as of February 9, 2026, underscores the company’s long-standing commitment to returning capital to investors, marking its 108th consecutive quarterly cash dividend and extending an uninterrupted dividend record that dates back to 1987.

The most recent analyst rating on (BSRR) stock is a Buy with a $41.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sierra Bancorp stock, see the BSRR Stock Forecast page.