Boot Barn Holdings (BOOT)
NYSE:BOOT
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Boot Barn
(NYSE:BOOT)
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
$171.00
▲(10.37% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:04/03/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (healthy margins and returns, but offset by inconsistent free-cash-flow conversion and rising debt) and a strong, guidance-raising earnings update. These positives are tempered by weak technicals (price below key moving averages and negative MACD) and only moderate valuation support (P/E 16.51 with no dividend yield).
Positive Factors
Margin expansion & profitability
Sustained merchandise and gross-margin expansion reflects improved sourcing, exclusive-brand mix and operating leverage. Higher margin structure increases long-term cash generation potential and resilience to cost inflation, supporting reinvestment, store growth and shareholder returns over multiple quarters.
Negative Factors
Rising absolute debt
Growing absolute debt increases financial rigidity and interest exposure during a rapid expansion cycle. Even with moderate leverage ratios, higher nominal borrowings reduce flexibility for opportunistic investments or downturns and raise refinancing and covenant risks over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Margin expansion & profitability
Sustained merchandise and gross-margin expansion reflects improved sourcing, exclusive-brand mix and operating leverage. Higher margin structure increases long-term cash generation potential and resilience to cost inflation, supporting reinvestment, store growth and shareholder returns over multiple quarters.
Read all positive factors
Boot Barn (BOOT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.80B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)714.15K
Price to Earnings (P/E)16.5
Beta (1Y)1.60
Revenue Growth17.82%
EPS Growth34.88%
CountryUS
Employees3,100
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryApparel - Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.79
Shares Outstanding30,420,431
10 Day Avg. Volume740,662
30 Day Avg. Volume714,147
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.81
Price to Book (P/B)2.81
Price to Sales (P/S)1.66
P/FCF Ratio-4.22K
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.14
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.52
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.59
Enterprise Value/Ebitda14.87
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$239.45Price Target Upside54.54% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering13
EPS Forecast (FY)8.5
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.56B
Boot Barn Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Boot Barn Holdings, Inc., a lifestyle retail chain, operates specialty retail stores in the United States. The company's specialty retail stores offer western and work-related footwear, apparel, and accessories for men, women, and kids. It offers ...
How the Company Makes Money
Boot Barn makes money primarily by selling western and work lifestyle merchandise directly to consumers through two main channels: (1) brick-and-mortar retail stores and (2) e-commerce. Revenue is largely driven by the sale of footwear (e.g., cowb...
Boot Barn Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 04, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 20, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong top-line growth, notable margin expansion, robust online performance, record store openings, and a raised full-year outlook — balanced by near-term headwinds in Q4 from normalized shrink/freight, elevated inventory tied to new-store growth, and some weather disruption. Management highlighted execution on strategic initiatives (exclusive brands, omnichannel, store productivity) and a healthy balance sheet; the negatives are largely characterized as manageable or temporary.Positive Updates
Revenue and Same-Store Sales Growth
Net sales increased 16% year-over-year to $706.0M in the third quarter; consolidated same-store sales grew 5.7% (store comps +3.7%, e-commerce comps included separately).
Negative Updates
Fourth-Quarter Margin Pressure
Q4 guidance at the high end reflects an expected merchandise margin decline of ~60 basis points year-over-year (merchandise margin ~50.5% of sales) due to normalization of shrink/freight versus an easy prior-year comparison.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue and Same-Store Sales Growth
Net sales increased 16% year-over-year to $706.0M in the third quarter; consolidated same-store sales grew 5.7% (store comps +3.7%, e-commerce comps included separately).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Boot Barn guided Q4 at the high end to $535 million in sales with consolidated same‑store sales up 5%; merchandise margin of ~50.5% (a 60‑bp decline YoY that includes ~20 bp product margin growth offset by ~80 bp higher shrink and freight), gross profit of ~36.1% (including ~50 bp deleverage in buying/occupancy/DC), income from operations of ~$59 million (11.1% of sales) and diluted EPS of $1.45. For fiscal 2026 they raised full‑year guidance to $2.25 billion in sales (+18% YoY), same‑store sales +7% (store +6%, e‑commerce +15%), merchandise margin ~50.8% (up 70 bp, including +240 bp from exclusive brands), gross profit ~38%, income from operations ~$301 million (13.4% of sales), net income ~$226 million and EPS $7.35.Boot Barn Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Mar 2025 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.17B | 1.91B | 1.67B | 1.66B | 1.49B | 893.49M |
| Gross Profit | 831.18M | 717.04M | 614.42M | 610.57M | 575.07M | 294.88M |
| EBITDA | 368.16M | 304.10M | 249.19M | 315.57M | 325.01M | 145.07M |
| Net Income | 218.98M | 180.94M | 147.00M | 170.55M | 192.45M | 59.39M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.40B | 2.02B | 1.71B | 1.52B | 1.20B | 933.58M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 200.07M | 69.77M | 75.85M | 18.19M | 20.67M | 73.15M |
| Total Debt | 704.07M | 563.04M | 466.76M | 447.72M | 306.25M | 331.02M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.12B | 886.96M | 761.95M | 740.93M | 600.18M | 538.69M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.28B | 1.13B | 943.64M | 776.45M | 599.68M | 394.89M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 89.48M | -753.00K | 117.30M | -35.65M | 28.42M | 127.50M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 266.14M | 147.54M | 236.08M | 88.89M | 88.86M | 155.92M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -176.62M | -148.24M | -118.78M | -124.53M | -60.44M | -28.42M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -42.36M | -5.38M | -59.64M | 33.17M | -80.89M | -123.91M |
Boot Barn Technical Analysis
Negative
154.94
Price Trends
171.97
Negative
181.26
Negative
178.51
Negative
Market Momentum
-3.82
Negative
46.25
Neutral
73.27
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BOOT, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 154.94 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 152.75, below the 50-day MA of 171.97, and below the 200-day MA of 178.51, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -3.82 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 46.25 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 73.27 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BOOT.
Boot Barn Risk Analysis
Boot Barn disclosed 50 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Boot Barn reported the most risks in the "Ability to Sell" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Boot Barn Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $2.72B | 11.34 | 45.18% | 6.82% | 4.67% | 3.46% | |
69 Neutral | $4.11B | 9.11 | 38.98% | ― | 7.57% | 1.75% | |
66 Neutral | $4.80B | 16.51 | 18.28% | ― | 17.82% | 34.88% | |
64 Neutral | $9.43B | 12.79 | 22.98% | 2.45% | 0.29% | 3.65% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
54 Neutral | $3.24B | 11.22 | 12.12% | 2.09% | -1.15% | -0.98% | |
| ― | ― | ― | ― | ― | ― | ― |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
BOOT
Boot Barn
163.09
73.96
82.98%
ANF
Abercrombie Fitch
94.36
21.59
29.67%
AEO
American Eagle
19.42
9.02
86.71%
BKE
Buckle
54.62
22.76
71.44%
FL
Foot Locker
―
―
―
GAP
Gap Inc
27.02
8.43
45.32%
Boot Barn Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Boot Barn posts robust fiscal Q3 2026 growth
Positive
Feb 4, 2026
On February 4, 2026, Boot Barn Holdings reported strong results for its third fiscal quarter ended December 27, 2025, with net sales up 16% year over year to $705.6 million, driven by a 5.7% increase in same-store sales and continued outperformanc...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.