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Banca Mediolanum (BNCDY)
OTHER OTC:BNCDY
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Banca Mediolanum
(OTC:BNCDY)
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Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
$54.00
â–²(16.71% Upside)
The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (strong profitability, improving leverage, and high ROE) and supportive technical momentum (price above key moving averages with positive MACD). Valuation is also favorable (moderate P/E and ~4.9% dividend yield). The earnings call adds confidence via clear 2026 guidance and strong capital, tempered by market/rate sensitivity and profitability pressures in Spain.
Positive Factors
Diversified retail financial model
Banca Mediolanum’s integrated model—banking, asset management, insurance and advisory—plus digital distribution creates multiple recurring revenue streams and cross‑sell synergies. This structural diversification supports durable fee generation and customer retention over the medium term.
Strong managed asset inflows
A 21% YoY increase in managed asset inflows materially boosts assets under management and recurring commission income. Sustained inflows enhance scale economics, improve fee revenue predictability, and deepen client relationships that underpin long‑term profitability and resilience.
Robust cash generation and improved leverage
A free cash flow to net income ratio near 95% shows high cash conversion, supporting dividends, reinvestment or balance‑sheet strengthening. Combined with a sharply reduced debt-to-equity ratio and high ROE, this enhances financial flexibility and lowers structural solvency risk.
Negative Factors
Declining net interest income
A 5% decline in net interest income reduces a core, repeatable earnings pillar for the bank. If driven by structural rate or asset‑mix changes, continued NII weakness could compress margins, force greater reliance on fees, and pressure sustainable earnings power over months.
Spanish market underperformance
A 28% drop in Spanish net income and a 24% fall in Spanish NII highlight geographic execution and cost issues. Persistent weakness in an international market can reduce consolidated growth, require incremental capital or restructuring, and raise medium‑term operational risk.
Pressure on fee margins from product mix
A shift toward lower‑margin bond and money‑market products erodes recurring fee margins, reducing the quality of revenue. If the mix change persists, sustaining prior fee levels will require repositioning products, repricing or higher volumes, all of which may take months to execute.
Banca Mediolanum (BNCDY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$17.33B
Dividend Yield5.15%
Average Volume (3M)130.00
Price to Earnings (P/E)13.7
Beta (1Y)0.60
Revenue Growth-5.99%
EPS Growth28.65%
CountryUS
Employees3,871
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)N/A
Shares Outstanding372,700,960
10 Day Avg. Volume283
30 Day Avg. Volume130
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.82
Price to Book (P/B)8.40
Price to Sales (P/S)11.24
P/FCF Ratio30.85
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.04
Enterprise Value/Revenue6.03
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.35
Enterprise Value/Ebitda11.96
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Banca Mediolanum Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionBanca Mediolanum S.p.A. provides various banking products and services in Italy. The company offers current accounts and mortgages and loans. It also provides debit, credit, and prepaid cards; savings and investment products, such as equities and bonds, as well as trading services; and insurance and pension products and services. The company was founded in 1982 and is headquartered in Basiglio, Italy.
How the Company Makes MoneyBanca Mediolanum generates revenue through several key streams, including interest income from loans and mortgages, fees from asset management and investment services, and commissions from insurance products. The bank earns a significant portion of its income from managing client investments and providing financial advisory services, charging management fees based on assets under management. Additionally, Banca Mediolanum benefits from distribution agreements with various financial product providers, allowing it to earn commissions. Its unique business model, which combines traditional banking with a strong emphasis on digital services, enables it to reach a broad customer base and maintain competitive pricing, contributing significantly to its overall earnings.
Banca Mediolanum Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 03, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call reported a strong set of 2025 results: record net income, robust fee growth, exceptional net inflows (especially into managed assets), high ROE and a very strong capital position. The bank balanced growth with disciplined cost management (cost-to-income 37.6%) while continuing to invest in distribution, NEXT and digital/AI initiatives. Key challenges include reduced performance fees versus the prior year, provisions and reserve builds, Spain profitability headwinds, and sensitivity of NII and certain fee lines (certificates) to market conditions. The management provided clear 2026 guidance (managed assets ~EUR 9bn, NII ~+10%, cost-to-income ~38%, cost of risk ~20 bps) but flagged that outcomes depend on market and rate environments.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Net Income
Group net income of EUR 1.238 billion, up 11% versus 2024, marking a new all-time high for the bank.
Strong Core Profitability
Contribution margin exceeded EUR 2.1 billion and operating margin was ~EUR 1.2 billion, improving ~10% year-on-year; cost-to-income ratio at 37.6% (below 40% guidance).
Fee Revenue Growth and Recurring Fees
Net commission income up 12% to EUR 1.3 billion; management/recurring fees up 10% to over EUR 1.4 billion, reflecting higher average managed assets and strong net inflows into managed products.
Outstanding Commercial Momentum and Net Inflows
Total net inflows of EUR 11.64 billion, up 11% YoY; managed assets net inflows of EUR 9.06 billion, up 18% and ahead of guidance (EUR 8.0–8.5 billion).
Balance Sheet Growth and Asset Base
Total assets ended 2025 at EUR 155.8 billion, up 12% YoY; credit book grew to just under EUR 19 billion and loans granted rose 28% YoY to nearly EUR 4 billion; cost of risk remained low at 16 bps.
Capital, Returns and Shareholder Pay-out
ROE of 29.1% and a solid CET1 ratio of 23%; proposed ordinary dividend EUR 1.25 per share (+25% vs 2024), composed of EUR 0.80 base and EUR 0.45 additional distribution tied to nonrecurring items.
Customer & Network Expansion
Customer base surpassed 2 million (+6% YoY) with 199,500 new customers; family banker network increased 6% to 6,798 advisers; employee/family banker bonus of EUR 2,000 paid to ~11,000 people.
NEXT Program & Productivity Gains
590 banker consultants active (213 in training) with >800 expected by end-2026; among 726 senior bankers with a consultant, productivity advantages widened significantly (managed asset inflows advantage rose from 4% to 37%; protection policies +32% to +57%; customer acquisitions +46% to +81%).
Spain: Strong Commercial Volumes
Spain net inflows EUR 1.95 billion (+30% YoY); managed assets EUR 11.9 billion (+23%); total assets ~EUR 15.5 billion (+18%); credit book EUR 1.74 billion (+17%).
One-off Tax Refund and Positive Market Effects
Received EUR 140 million IRAP refund (2012–2024) and ~EUR 17 million lower IRAP benefit in 2025; fair value improved to EUR 28 million (from EUR 17 million) and treasury trading contributed positively; performance fees still significant at EUR 257 million gross.
Negative Updates
Performance Fees Reduced
Performance fees were materially lower than 2024, down 32% to EUR 257 million gross, reducing a source of upside to the bottom line (management stresses they are non‑recurring/bonus in nature).
Spain Profitability Pressure
Despite strong commercial volumes, Spain operating margin fell 26% to EUR 56.4 million and net income declined 29% to EUR 57.7 million, partly due to a strategy-driven increase in costs and an 18% decline in NII YoY.
Net Interest Income Sensitivity
NII tailwind softened during 2025 as rates normalized; bank highlighted the need to protect margins via mix and pricing; Spain NII down 18% YoY; guidance assumes NII to rise ~10% in 2026 but depends on rate assumptions (3m Euribor ~1.95%).
Increase in Provisions and Reserves
Provisions for risks and charges increased 21% YoY (no recurrence of prior-year favorable legal outcomes) and reserves built for the growing Prexta unsecured lending business; network indemnities rose driven by higher commission volumes.
Nonrecurring Items and P&L Volatility
Nonrecurring flows (e.g., EUR 140m tax refund, Mediobanca stake sale) influenced the P&L and dividend capacity; the bank noted some one-offs (EUR ~23m group recognition bonus) partly offsetting benefits and overall nonrecurring items were ~4% higher vs prior year.
Lower Other Investment Income
Net income on other investments declined ~35% YoY to around EUR 22 million, driven by the sale of the Mediobanca stake (dividend income limited to Q2).
Potential Volatility in Banking Service Fees
Banking service fees rose 38% to nearly EUR 259 million (driven by certificate sales recognized upfront); management warned certificate-related fees can be volatile depending on market performance and call/redemption timing.
Funds Below High Watermark
Five funds were below the high watermark at 31 Dec with a combined NAV of EUR 4 billion, which can limit near-term performance fee upside if markets remain muted.
Cost Growth Guidance
2026 guidance anticipates cost-to-income around 38% and administrative costs rising ~8–9% YoY as the bank continues to invest in technology, network expansion (notably in Spain) and NEXT, implying some upward cost pressure despite efficiency focus.
Company Guidance
For 2026 management guided net inflows into managed assets of around EUR 9.0bn (assuming normal market conditions); net interest income up approximately 10% year‑on‑year (management cites a steady‑state 3m Euribor assumption of ~1.95%); a cost‑to‑income ratio of ~38%; cost of risk around 20 bps; loan stock and newly granted loans each expected to grow ~5%; they expect to convert a pipeline of roughly EUR 3bn into managed assets (≈EUR 840m from double‑chance deposits and >EUR 2.1bn from installment plans) and to gradually switch about EUR 5bn currently in money‑market funds into equities over a c.3.5‑year horizon; management also intends to increase the ordinary dividend above the EUR 0.80 base per share (having proposed EUR 1.25 for 2025) while keeping capital metrics strong (CET1 ~23% at end‑2025, with a preference to remain >22%).Banca Mediolanum Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Overall fundamentals are solid: strong revenue growth (9.3%), high profitability (net margin 37.2%), improved leverage (debt-to-equity down to 0.10), and strong ROE (27.8%). Offsets include a slight EBIT margin decline, relatively low equity ratio, and weaker operating cash-flow conversion despite strong free cash flow generation.Income Statement
Banca Mediolanum has shown strong revenue growth of 9.3% in the latest year, with a solid gross profit margin of 80.4% and a net profit margin of 37.2%. However, the EBIT margin has slightly decreased from the previous year, indicating potential cost management issues. Overall, the income statement reflects robust profitability and growth, but with some room for improvement in operational efficiency.75
Positive
Balance Sheet
The company has significantly reduced its debt-to-equity ratio from 2.41 to 0.10, indicating improved financial stability. The return on equity is strong at 27.8%, suggesting effective use of equity to generate profits. However, the equity ratio is relatively low, which could pose risks if asset values fluctuate. Overall, the balance sheet shows improved leverage and strong returns, but with potential risks due to low equity coverage.68
Positive
Cash Flow
Banca Mediolanum's free cash flow has grown significantly, with a free cash flow to net income ratio of 95.1%, indicating efficient cash generation relative to net income. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is low, suggesting potential challenges in converting income into cash. Overall, the cash flow statement reflects strong free cash flow growth, but with some concerns regarding operating cash flow conversion.70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.99B | 3.01B | 2.42B | 1.49B | 6.45B | 3.18B |
| Gross Profit | 2.45B | 2.42B | 1.92B | 1.41B | 6.40B | 3.11B |
| EBITDA | 1.51B | 1.45B | 1.07B | 643.84M | 890.47M | 531.42M |
| Net Income | 1.15B | 1.12B | 821.87M | 506.83M | 713.05M | 434.46M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 85.97B | 86.15B | 77.83B | 73.60B | 73.52B | 59.03B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 806.77M | 1.28B | 384.78M | 2.75B | 5.32B | 803.23M |
| Total Debt | 393.24M | 396.88M | 386.00M | 372.29M | 68.01M | 74.38M |
| Total Liabilities | 81.80B | 82.13B | 74.38B | 70.66B | 70.64B | 56.29B |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.18B | 4.03B | 3.45B | 2.94B | 2.88B | 2.74B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 0.00 | 1.10B | -1.81B | 2.24B | 848.49M | -49.76M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 0.00 | 1.15B | -1.75B | 2.30B | 909.30M | -7.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -15.52M | -23.93M | -34.06M | -38.14M | -38.16M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -640.36M | -385.65M | -431.51M | -737.97M | 4.92M |
Banca Mediolanum Technical Analysis
Positive
46.27
Price Trends
45.01
Positive
42.28
Positive
38.15
Positive
Market Momentum
0.65
Negative
57.31
Neutral
86.39
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BNCDY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 46.27 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 46.37, above the 50-day MA of 45.01, and above the 200-day MA of 38.15, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.65 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.31 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 86.39 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BNCDY.
Banca Mediolanum Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $17.33B | 13.72 | 28.26% | 5.15% | -5.99% | 28.65% | |
72 Outperform | $16.96B | 15.67 | 24.13% | 4.29% | 12.43% | 56.30% | |
71 Outperform | $23.22B | 18.67 | 20.74% | 5.56% | -11.64% | -8.75% | |
70 Outperform | $20.20B | 21.16 | 17.06% | 10.29% | -6.79% | 16.13% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
64 Neutral | $25.03B | 24.42 | 9.34% | 4.98% | 1.13% | -11.93% | |
62 Neutral | $15.99B | 7.27 | 9.61% | 3.71% | -2.90% | 16.10% |
* Financial Sector Average
BNCDY
Banca Mediolanum
46.97
20.55
77.78%
BCH
Banco De Chile
45.38
20.96
85.85%
BSBR
Banco Santander Brasil
6.63
2.05
44.82%
BSAC
Banco Santander Chile
35.89
14.90
70.99%
CIB
Grupo Cibest
77.94
41.86
116.02%
WF
Woori Finance Holdings Co
65.31
32.84
101.14%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.