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Banca Mediolanum (BNCDY)
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Banca Mediolanum (BNCDY) AI Stock Analysis

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BNCDY

Banca Mediolanum

(OTC:BNCDY)

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Outperform 76 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
$47.00
▲(12.63% Upside)
Banca Mediolanum's overall stock score reflects strong financial performance and a positive earnings outlook, supported by robust technical indicators. The stock's attractive valuation and high dividend yield further enhance its appeal. However, attention is needed for operational efficiency and cash flow conversion to sustain growth.

Banca Mediolanum (BNCDY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Banca Mediolanum Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionBanca Mediolanum S.p.A. provides various banking products and services in Italy. The company offers current accounts and mortgages and loans. It also provides debit, credit, and prepaid cards; savings and investment products, such as equities and bonds, as well as trading services; and insurance and pension products and services. The company was founded in 1982 and is headquartered in Basiglio, Italy.
How the Company Makes MoneyBanca Mediolanum generates revenue through multiple channels, including interest income from loans and mortgages, fees from investment products, and commissions from insurance policies. The bank also earns money from asset management services, where it charges management fees on the funds it manages for clients. Additionally, Banca Mediolanum benefits from a unique distribution model that leverages a network of financial advisors, allowing the bank to reach a wide customer base while minimizing traditional branch costs. Partnerships with various financial institutions and technology providers enhance its service offerings, contributing to overall revenue growth.

Banca Mediolanum Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 06, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a generally positive outlook for Banca Mediolanum with record-breaking milestones and strong inflow and revenue performance. However, challenges such as a decline in net interest income, issues in the Spanish market, and pressure on fee margins were also highlighted.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Milestones Achieved
Banca Mediolanum reached over EUR 150 billion in assets and surpassed 2 million customers, marking significant achievements for the year.
Strong Net Inflow Performance
The bank reported a 21% year-on-year surge in managed asset inflows, supporting healthier recurring fees and strengthening customer relationships.
Robust Revenue Growth
Net income increased by 8%, operating margin expanded by 5%, and net commission income rose by 11%.
Improved Cost Efficiency
The cost-income ratio improved to 37.2%, with a commitment to finish 2025 below 40% as per guidance.
Positive Dividend Outlook
The Board resolved to pay a EUR 0.60 interim dividend per share, factoring in the one-off benefit from the Mediobanca sale.
Negative Updates
Decline in Net Interest Income
Net interest income fell by 5% to EUR 582 million, although it was anticipated to narrow the gap versus last year.
Challenges in Spanish Market
In Spain, net income decreased by 28% year-on-year due to higher costs and a 24% drop in net interest income.
Pressure on Fee Margins
The average recurring fee margin decreased due to a mix shift towards lower-margin bond funds and money market funds.
Increased Provisions for Risk and Charges
A 50% increase in provisions for risk and charges was noted, driven by volume-related dynamics and the absence of one-off releases.
Company Guidance
During the Banca Mediolanum 9 Month 2025 Results Conference Call, the company's leadership provided detailed guidance reflecting a strong performance and positive outlook. Key metrics included an 8% increase in net income to EUR 726 million, a 5% expansion in operating margin to EUR 891 million, and an 11% rise in net commission income to EUR 967 million. The bank achieved record milestones with over EUR 150 billion in assets and more than 2 million customers. They also reported a 21% year-on-year surge in managed asset inflows, which supported healthier recurring fees. The guidance highlighted expectations for NII to be higher in 2026, assuming a stable yield curve, with anticipated double-digit growth. The cost-income ratio was maintained below 40%, while the cost of risk was projected to normalize around 20 basis points by year-end. Additionally, a more generous interim dividend of EUR 0.60 per share was announced, reflecting the benefits from the sale of the Mediobanca stake. Overall, the leadership emphasized continued growth in their Family Banker network and the strategic focus on managed asset inflows and profitability.

Banca Mediolanum Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Banca Mediolanum shows strong revenue growth and profitability with improved leverage, but faces challenges in operational efficiency and cash flow conversion.
Income Statement
75
Positive
Banca Mediolanum has shown strong revenue growth of 9.3% in the latest year, with a solid gross profit margin of 80.4% and a net profit margin of 37.2%. However, the EBIT margin has slightly decreased from the previous year, indicating potential cost management issues. Overall, the income statement reflects robust profitability and growth, but with some room for improvement in operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
The company has significantly reduced its debt-to-equity ratio from 2.41 to 0.10, indicating improved financial stability. The return on equity is strong at 27.8%, suggesting effective use of equity to generate profits. However, the equity ratio is relatively low, which could pose risks if asset values fluctuate. Overall, the balance sheet shows improved leverage and strong returns, but with potential risks due to low equity coverage.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
Banca Mediolanum's free cash flow has grown significantly, with a free cash flow to net income ratio of 95.1%, indicating efficient cash generation relative to net income. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is low, suggesting potential challenges in converting income into cash. Overall, the cash flow statement reflects strong free cash flow growth, but with some concerns regarding operating cash flow conversion.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue2.85B3.01B2.42B1.49B6.45B3.18B
Gross Profit2.45B2.42B1.92B1.41B1.60B3.11B
EBITDA1.52B1.51B-19.41M741.41M890.47M531.42M
Net Income1.15B1.12B821.87M506.83M713.05M434.46M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets85.97B86.15B77.83B73.60B73.52B59.03B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments806.77M1.28B188.13M2.75B5.32B664.61M
Total Debt393.24M396.88M8.32B372.29M68.01M74.38M
Total Liabilities81.80B82.13B74.38B70.66B70.64B56.29B
Stockholders Equity4.18B4.03B3.45B2.94B2.88B2.74B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow0.001.10B-1.81B2.24B848.49M-49.76M
Operating Cash Flow0.001.15B-1.75B2.30B909.30M-7.00M
Investing Cash Flow0.00-15.52M-23.93M-34.06M-38.14M-38.16M
Financing Cash Flow0.00-640.36M-385.65M-431.51M-737.97M4.92M

Banca Mediolanum Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price41.73
Price Trends
50DMA
39.83
Positive
100DMA
38.01
Positive
200DMA
33.93
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.41
Negative
RSI
68.23
Neutral
STOCH
86.15
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BNCDY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 41.73 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 39.76, above the 50-day MA of 39.83, and above the 200-day MA of 33.93, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.41 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 68.23 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 86.15 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BNCDY.

Banca Mediolanum Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
79
Outperform
$15.61B17.0516.25%10.36%-8.82%4.87%
76
Outperform
$14.99B12.0728.26%5.30%13.04%27.14%
71
Outperform
$17.69B13.8221.29%5.81%-11.64%-8.75%
70
Outperform
$22.78B21.609.34%5.55%1.13%-11.93%
69
Neutral
$13.55B12.1024.13%4.56%12.43%56.30%
68
Neutral
$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
63
Neutral
$13.05B6.143.39%-1.23%16.81%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
BNCDY
Banca Mediolanum
41.73
17.93
75.34%
BCH
Banco De Chile
36.23
14.26
64.91%
BSBR
Banco Santander Brasil
6.05
1.67
38.13%
BSAC
Banco Santander Chile
29.70
11.05
59.25%
CIB
Grupo Cibest
63.22
34.77
122.21%
WF
Woori Finance Holdings Co
53.90
19.62
57.23%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 07, 2025