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Banco Macro SA (BMA)
NYSE:BMA

Banco Macro SA (BMA) AI Stock Analysis

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BMA

Banco Macro SA

(NYSE:BMA)

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Neutral 65 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$110.00
â–²(65.07% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:12/02/25
Banco Macro's overall stock score reflects a mix of strong revenue growth and a solid balance sheet, tempered by modest profitability and significant challenges highlighted in the recent earnings call. Technical indicators show positive momentum, but the financial performance and earnings call concerns weigh heavily on the score.
Positive Factors
Loan Growth
Sustained, high loan growth expands the bank's interest-earning asset base and drives long-term net interest income. Over 2-6 months, this supports revenue resilience and market share gains in Argentina, though credit underwriting must hold to preserve asset quality.
Deposit Growth & Liquidity
Consistent deposit inflows and a 67% liquid-assets-to-deposits ratio underpin funding stability and reduce reliance on wholesale markets. This durable liquidity cushion supports lending growth and buffers short-term shocks, improving balance-sheet flexibility over the medium term.
Strong Capital Position
Very high regulatory capital ratios provide a structural buffer against credit losses and macro volatility, enabling continued lending and dividend policy while meeting supervisory requirements. It materially lowers solvency risk and enhances strategic optionality over months.
Negative Factors
Net Income Losses
Quarterly net losses reduce retained earnings and strain profitability metrics, limiting capacity to absorb future shocks and invest in operations. If losses persist, they can erode return on equity and constrain capital deployment choices over the coming quarters.
Rising Loan Loss Provisions & NPLs
Sharp increases in provisions and a materially higher nonperforming ratio signal weakening asset quality. Persistently elevated credit costs compress margins and require higher capital absorption, impairing earnings power and lending capacity across a multi-quarter horizon.
Declining Free Cash Flow Growth
A steep drop in free cash flow growth reduces internal funding for investment, loan loss buffers, and shareholder returns. Even with good FCF-to-net-income conversion, declining FCF momentum constrains operational flexibility and raises dependence on external funding over several months.

Banco Macro SA (BMA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Banco Macro SA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionBanco Macro S.A. provides various banking products and services to retail and corporate customers in Argentina. It offers various retail banking products and services, such as savings and checking accounts, time deposits, credit and debit cards, consumer finance loans, mortgage loans, automobile loans, overdrafts, credit-related services, home and car insurance coverage, tax collection, utility payments, automated teller machines (ATMs), and money transfers. The company also provides personal loans, document discounts, residential mortgages, overdrafts, pledged loans, and credit card loans to retail customers. In addition, it offers corporate banking products and services, including deposits, lending, check cashing advances and factoring, guaranteed loans, credit lines for financing foreign trade, and cash management services; and trust, payroll, and financial agency services, as well as corporate credit cards and other specialty products; and working capital facilities, credit for investment projects, and leasing and foreign trade transactions. Further, the company provides transaction services, such as cash management, collection services, payments to suppliers, payroll services, foreign exchange transactions, and foreign trade services; information services comprising Datanet and Interpymes services to corporate customers; and Internet and mobile banking services. Additionally, it offers short-term and medium-to-long-term corporate lending products. As of December 31, 2021, it operated through a network of 466 branches, 1,779 ATMs, 955 self-service terminals, and various service points. The company was incorporated in 1966 and is headquartered in Buenos Aires, Argentina.
How the Company Makes MoneyBanco Macro generates revenue primarily through the interest income from loans and credit facilities extended to customers. The bank earns significant income from net interest margin, which is the difference between the interest earned on loans and the interest paid on deposits. Additionally, it generates fees from various banking services, including account maintenance fees, transaction fees, and commissions for investment products. The bank also benefits from foreign exchange operations and trading activities. Strategic partnerships and collaborations with other financial institutions and fintech companies enhance its service offerings and expand its customer reach, contributing to its overall earnings.

Banco Macro SA Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 25, 2026
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 27, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a mixed but fundamentally constructive picture: Banco Macro showed solid recurring profitability drivers (strong NII, deposit and loan growth YoY, market share gains), very robust capital and liquidity metrics, improved efficiency and proactive restructuring to lower future costs, and a successful FX positioning. Offsetting these positives were significant one-off restructuring charges that depressed reported earnings and ROE, higher provisions and a deterioration in consumer NPLs, Q4 net monetary losses amid inflation volatility, elevated operating costs in the quarter and a much higher effective tax rate. Management provided updated 2026 guidance (loans +20% real, deposits +6% real, adjusted ROE ~8%) and a path to recovery; many negatives are being managed via restructuring and provisioning. Overall, the highlights modestly outweigh the lowlights given the bank's strong capital/liquidity position and recurring income strength, but risks remain tied to consumer credit quality, inflation/macro volatility and transitional restructuring costs.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Successful FX Positioning
Short U.S. dollar positioning in H2 2025 and related allocations generated a Q4 net gain of ARS 26.3 billion, contributing positively to results.
Commercial Asset Quality and Coverage
Commercial portfolio NPLs improved to 0.68% (down 17 bps QoQ). Overall coverage (total allowances / non-performing loans under central bank rules) stood at 119.86%, indicating strong provisioning relative to non-performing loans.
Clear 2026 Guidance
Management updated guidance: real loan growth ~20% for calendar 2026, real deposit growth ~6%, adjusted ROE ~8%, ROA ~1.8–2.0%, and targeted cost of risk ~5.2% — providing forward-looking clarity after election-related uncertainty.
Adjusted Profitability Recovery (Excluding Nonrecurring Items)
Reported Q4 2025 net income was ARS 100 billion; FY2025 net income was ARS 290.7 billion. Excluding ARS 82.9 billion of Q4 restructuring expenses (and other nonrecurring items), Q4 net income would have been ARS 183 billion and FY2025 ARS 393.7 billion, showing a materially stronger recurring earnings base.
Strong Net Interest Income
Q4 2025 net interest income (NII) of ARS 836.5 billion, up 13% quarter-over-quarter and 19% year-over-year. FY2025 NII totaled ARS 3.1 trillion, up 44% year-over-year — driven by higher interest income and improved lending rates.
Loan and Deposit Growth with Market Share Gains
Total financing (loans) reached ARS 10.71 trillion: -2% QoQ but +40% YoY. Total deposits reached ARS 13.7 trillion: +8% QoQ and +24% YoY. Private sector deposits rose 11% QoQ; private-sector market share in loans ~8.3% (up ~30 bps) and in deposits ~7.9% (up ~90 bps) versus Dec-2024.
Very Strong Capital and Liquidity Position
Excess capital of ARS 3.6 trillion with a capital adequacy ratio and Tier 1 ratio of 30.6%. Liquid assets to total deposits ratio at 73%, indicating ample liquidity to support growth or absorb shocks.
Efficiency Improvements and Structural Cost Actions
Efficiency ratio improved to 38.7% in Q4 from 46.5% in Q3 and 39.4% year-ago. Bank reduced branch network by 75 branches to 444 and headcount by 514 employees while gaining market share — restructuring intended to lower recurring cost base going forward.
Negative Updates
Reported Earnings Decline Year-over-Year
Q4 2025 net income was 26% (ARS 34.4 billion) lower than Q4 2024; FY2025 net income was 32% lower than FY2024. Reported accumulated annualized ROE was 5.1% (accumulated annualized ROA 1.4%).
Large Restructuring Charges Depressed Reported Results
ARS 82.9 billion of restructuring expenses recorded in Q4 2025 (early retirement and severance). ARS 36 billion of that will impact 2026; management expects similar restructuring costs in following quarters. Management estimates restructuring drag on ROE of ~3 percentage points in 2026 (reported ROE ~5% vs adjusted ~8%).
Sharp Increase in Provisions / Cost of Risk
Provision for loan losses rose substantially: FY2025 provisions totaled ARS 538.1 million (reported +274% YoY) and Q4 provisions increased materially year-over-year (management guiding to a cost of risk of ~5.2% in 2026 vs 5.6% in 2025).
Deterioration in Consumer Asset Quality
Consumer portfolio NPLs deteriorated by 93 basis points QoQ to 5.23% (from 4.30%), contributing to elevated overall NPL ratio of 3.87%.
Net Monetary Position Loss & Inflation Volatility
Q4 result from net monetary position was a loss of ARS 277 billion (27% higher vs Q3). Inflation increased to 7.86% in the quarter (vs 5.97% in Q3). FY result from net monetary position loss was ARS 1.05 trillion (improved vs prior year but still large).
Rising Operating Costs in the Quarter
Administrative expenses plus employee benefits in Q4 were ARS 412.4 billion, +15% QoQ and +20% YoY. Compensation and bonuses rose 156% QoQ. Although partially one-off (restructuring-related), Q4 operating costs pressured reported earnings.
Securities Income Volatility and Decline
Income from government and private securities showed volatility and weakness: FY2025 income from these securities significantly declined (management cited a ~58% YoY fall in FY income from securities) compared with FY2024, reflecting market repricing and prior-quarter volatility.
Material Increase in Effective Tax Rate
Effective income tax rate rose to 42.7% in Q4 and 43.1% for FY2025 versus 9.2% in FY2024, increasing the tax burden on reported results.
Company Guidance
Banco Macro said it has fine‑tuned 2026 guidance to reflect updated macro consensus (GDP ~2.8–3.0% and inflation ~27% vs prior 20%), targeting real loan growth of ~20% and real deposit growth of ~6%, an adjusted ROE of ~8% (reported ROE ~5% when including restructuring charges) and adjusted ROA ~1.8–2.0%; it expects cost of risk ~5.2% (vs 5.6% in 2025) and NPLs to drift to the mid‑to‑low 3% range (with improvement concentrated in 2H26), NIM around ~20% (Q4‑25 NIM ~21.7%), and noted Q4‑25 restructuring charges of ARS 82.9bn (≈ARS 36bn carrying into 2026) that reduce recurring OpEx over time (≈3pp impact on ROE), while preserving strong buffers — excess capital ARS 3.6tn (CAR & Tier‑1 ~30.6%) and liquid assets/total deposits ~73% — and using securities (~24% of assets) and capital to finance any loan‑deposit gap while maintaining market share (private‑loan share ~8.6%, private‑deposit share ~7.9%).

Banco Macro SA Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Banco Macro SA demonstrates strong revenue growth and a solid balance sheet with low leverage. However, profitability margins are modest, and the decline in free cash flow growth poses a potential risk. The company should focus on improving operational efficiency and cash flow management to enhance overall financial health.
Income Statement
65
Positive
Banco Macro SA shows a strong revenue growth rate of 27.43% in the latest year, indicating robust business expansion. However, the net profit margin is relatively low at 5.04%, suggesting potential inefficiencies or high costs. The gross profit margin is healthy at 68.28%, but the EBIT and EBITDA margins are modest at 5.57% and 7.71%, respectively, indicating room for improvement in operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
The company maintains a strong balance sheet with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.11, reflecting conservative leverage. The return on equity is moderate at 8.04%, suggesting decent profitability relative to shareholder equity. The equity ratio is solid, indicating a stable financial structure with a significant portion of assets financed by equity.
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
The cash flow statement reveals a significant decline in free cash flow growth at -51.29%, which could be a concern for future liquidity. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 86.44%, indicating that a substantial portion of earnings is converted into cash. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is unavailable, limiting a full assessment of cash flow efficiency.
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue2.80B6.46T9.69T5.37T1.70T
Gross Profit2.80B4.41T6.04T3.23T1.11T
EBITDA0.00498.16B2.01T448.56B189.17B
Net Income199.51M325.50B1.27T276.45B138.74B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets16.02T14.49T14.63T6.51T1.95T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments2.47B3.21T3.33T1.21T335.69B
Total Debt1.03T465.41B914.79B239.19B90.36B
Total Liabilities12.41T10.44T10.19T4.91T1.48T
Stockholders Equity3.61B4.05T4.44T1.59T466.72B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow0.00794.07B-142.30B1.54T229.96B
Operating Cash Flow0.00918.59B-85.23B1.61T271.77B
Investing Cash Flow0.00-133.69B177.09B-75.77B-42.03B
Financing Cash Flow0.00-592.03B-2.90T-77.79B-306.88B

Banco Macro SA Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price66.64
Price Trends
50DMA
88.64
Negative
100DMA
85.24
Negative
200DMA
73.07
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-5.82
Positive
RSI
28.82
Positive
STOCH
21.80
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BMA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 66.64 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 79.61, below the 50-day MA of 88.64, and below the 200-day MA of 73.07, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -5.82 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 28.82 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 21.80 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BMA.

Banco Macro SA Risk Analysis

Banco Macro SA disclosed 38 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Banco Macro SA reported the most risks in the "Macro & Political" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 2 New Risks
1.
The Argentine economy has experienced significant volatility in recent decades, characterized by periods of low or negative growth, high levels of inflation and currency devaluation. Q4, 2023
2.
The occurrence of any of the above may have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations, cash flow or financial condition. Q4, 2023

Banco Macro SA Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
75
Outperform
$4.92B7.1011.93%3.68%2.79%2.11%
70
Outperform
$2.94B11.439.62%3.96%-4.45%16.92%
68
Neutral
$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
65
Neutral
$4.49B28.904.69%2.37%-55.81%-78.94%
57
Neutral
$4.61B7.379.37%3.03%-6.62%111.94%
55
Neutral
$2.87B18.397.42%0.80%-39.57%-49.55%
49
Neutral
$6.97B-60.572.57%1.82%-36.51%-39.66%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
BMA
Banco Macro SA
66.64
-13.38
-16.72%
OZK
Bank OZK
43.40
0.81
1.91%
BBAR
Banco BBVA Argentina
13.30
-4.86
-26.77%
GGAL
Grupo Financiero Galicia SA
41.12
-15.48
-27.34%
AVAL
Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores SA Pfd
3.93
1.13
40.11%
FHB
First Hawaiian
23.95
0.36
1.55%

Banco Macro SA Corporate Events

Banco Macro Invests US$75 Million for 50% Stake in Personal Pay Operator Micro Sistemas
Jan 22, 2026

On January 22, 2026, Banco Macro S.A. announced that it had entered into a master agreement with Telecom Argentina S.A. and its subsidiaries Micro Fintech Holding LLC and Micro Sistemas S.A.U. to foster the growth and expansion of Micro Sistemas, the payment service provider behind the “Personal Pay” brand. As part of the alliance, Banco Macro will provide its financial product expertise while Micro Sistemas contributes its large base of active users and recurring payment use cases, aiming to build a more comprehensive, customer-centric digital financial ecosystem. Banco Macro will make a capital contribution equivalent to US$75 million to subscribe for 50% of the capital stock and voting rights of Micro Sistemas, a move that significantly deepens its presence in Argentina’s fast-growing digital payments space and could enhance its competitive positioning in fintech-driven financial services, subject to approval by the relevant antitrust authority.

The most recent analyst rating on (BMA) stock is a Hold with a $98.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Banco Macro SA stock, see the BMA Stock Forecast page.

Banco Macro to Pay Eighth Installment of ARS 39.46 Billion Cash Dividend on January 29, 2026
Jan 14, 2026

On January 14, 2026, Banco Macro S.A. announced that, following shareholder approvals from April 4, 2025, regulatory authorizations from the Central Bank of Argentina, and a board resolution adopted the same day, it will pay the eighth installment of a cash dividend totaling ARS 39.46 billion, equivalent to ARS 61.7222815111 per share and representing 6,172.2281% of its outstanding capital stock of ARS 639.39 million. The dividend will be available to shareholders as of January 29, 2026, with a record date of January 28, 2026, subject to a 7% income tax withholding, and will be distributed in Argentina through Caja de Valores S.A., while ADR holders will receive payment via The Bank of New York Mellon, underscoring the bank’s continued return of capital to investors under the current regulatory framework for dividend distributions.

The most recent analyst rating on (BMA) stock is a Hold with a $102.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Banco Macro SA stock, see the BMA Stock Forecast page.

Banco Macro Announces 7th Dividend Payment Set for December 30, 2025
Dec 17, 2025

On December 17, 2025, Banco Macro S.A. announced the payment of the seventh installment of its cash dividend, amounting to AR $38.37 billion (AR $60.01 per share), which represents 6,001.47% of the outstanding capital stock. This distribution aligns with resolutions from the company’s 2025 shareholders’ meetings and the Central Bank of Argentina’s regulations, reflecting strong governance and compliance. The payment will commence on December 30, 2025, with a 7% withholding tax applicable, and ADR holders will receive their dividends through The Bank of New York Mellon. This announcement underscores Banco Macro’s steady financial performance and its commitment to returning value to shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (BMA) stock is a Hold with a $80.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Banco Macro SA stock, see the BMA Stock Forecast page.

Banco Macro Releases Q3 2025 Financial Statements Highlighting Lending Growth
Dec 17, 2025

Banco Macro SA has released its condensed interim financial statements for the fiscal period ending September 30, 2025, outlining its financial position, operations, and related developments. The report highlights a decrease in cash and bank deposits compared to December 31, 2024, reflecting potential adjustments in liquidity management. The bank has also showcased growth in loans and other financing as a key aspect of its operational activities, signaling a strong focus on expanding lending operations. These updates provide a comprehensive view of the bank’s performance and underline critical trends impacting its stakeholders and the Argentine banking industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (BMA) stock is a Hold with a $80.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Banco Macro SA stock, see the BMA Stock Forecast page.

Banco Macro Faces Class Action Lawsuit Over Improper Tax Application
Dec 1, 2025

On November 28, 2025, Banco Macro S.A. was notified of a class action lawsuit filed against it by ‘Usuarios y Consumidores Unidos.’ The lawsuit alleges that Banco Macro has been improperly applying the Tax for an Inclusive and Solidary Argentina (Impuesto PAIS) and withholding amounts for Income Tax and Personal Assets Tax on foreign currency purchases made with credit cards, even when these transactions do not involve a foreign exchange event. The plaintiffs are seeking a court order to stop these practices, demand repayment with interest, and require the bank to clearly inform customers about the tax applications, along with imposing a civil fine.

The most recent analyst rating on (BMA) stock is a Buy with a $117.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Banco Macro SA stock, see the BMA Stock Forecast page.

Banco Macro SA Reports Strong Financial Results for November 2025
Nov 26, 2025

Banco Macro SA reported its financial results for the period ending November 26, 2025, showcasing a total net income of 176,739,280 pesos and a comprehensive income of 186,894,892 pesos. The bank’s shareholders’ equity stood at 4,759,982,328 pesos, reflecting a robust financial position. These results highlight the bank’s strong performance and solidify its standing in the Argentine banking sector, potentially impacting investor confidence and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (BMA) stock is a Buy with a $130.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Banco Macro SA stock, see the BMA Stock Forecast page.

Banco Macro Reports Decline in 3Q25 Net Income Amid Strong Financing Growth
Nov 26, 2025

Banco Macro S.A. reported its financial results for the third quarter of 2025, ending September 30. The bank experienced a significant decline in net income, totaling Ps.176.7 billion for the first nine months of 2025, which was 35% lower than the same period in 2024. Despite this, the bank’s total financing increased by 69% year-over-year, and total deposits rose by 11% year-over-year, indicating strong growth in these areas. The bank maintained a robust solvency position with an excess capital of Ps.3.3 trillion and a capital adequacy ratio of 29.9%.

The most recent analyst rating on (BMA) stock is a Buy with a $130.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Banco Macro SA stock, see the BMA Stock Forecast page.

Banco Macro Announces Sixth Dividend Payment for 2025
Nov 12, 2025

On November 12, 2025, Banco Macro S.A. announced the payment of the sixth installment of its cash dividend, amounting to AR $37,446,788,165.99, which is AR $58.5664000649 per share. This decision follows resolutions from the shareholders’ meeting in April 2025 and subsequent authorizations from the Central Bank of Argentina. The dividend will be available to shareholders starting November 27, 2025, with a record date of November 26, 2025. The announcement also mentions a potential supplementary notice if any share buybacks occur before the record date. This dividend distribution reflects Banco Macro’s ongoing commitment to returning value to its shareholders, while navigating regulatory requirements and maintaining its financial strategies.

The most recent analyst rating on (BMA) stock is a Buy with a $111.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Banco Macro SA stock, see the BMA Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Dec 02, 2025