Bloomin' Brands (BLMN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $500.22M
• Dividend Yield: 10.6%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.21M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 60.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.94
• Revenue Growth: -13.07%
• EPS Growth: -1139.12%
• Country: US
• Employees: 81,000
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Restaurants
• EPS (TTM): 0.25
• Shares Outstanding: 85,217,094
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,395,360
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,205,263
• PEG Ratio: -0.61
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.61
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.14
• P/FCF Ratio: 5.59
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.97
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.12
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 0.22
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 2.22
• 1Y Price Target: $7.67
• Price Target Upside: 24.11% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.86
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $3.97B

• Rating: 45 Neutral
• Price Target: $6.00 ▼(-2.91% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/27/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/27/26

The score is primarily held back by pressured profitability and a highly leveraged balance sheet, with mixed cash generation. Technicals also remain bearish (below key moving averages and negative MACD). Offsetting factors include improved operating momentum and guidance from the latest call and an unusually high dividend yield, though the high P/E limits valuation support.

Positive Factors

Scale & Diversified Portfolio

A multi-concept portfolio of 1,450+ company and franchise units provides scale, diversified revenue streams and franchise cash flows. Scale supports national marketing, supply-chain leverage and reduces single-concept risk, improving resilience during multi-quarter recovery cycles.

Franchise & Refranchising Cash Inflows

Material refranchising proceeds (~$122M) and an asset-light franchising model boost liquidity and reduce capital intensity. These structural cash inflows can accelerate deleveraging, fund targeted reinvestment, and lower future capex needs, strengthening the balance sheet over several quarters.

Focused Turnaround Investment & Productivity Plan

A defined Outback turnaround combining $75M of targeted reinvestment and $80M of productivity savings is a durable strategic pivot. If executed, it should sustainably raise comp sales, improve guest metrics and incrementally expand operating margins across multiple reporting periods.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

A debt-heavy capital structure (debt/equity ~3.7x) materially limits financial flexibility. High leverage increases interest exposure, constrains ability to absorb demand shocks, and raises refinancing risk if macro rates or credit spreads widen during the 2–6 month recovery window.

Fragile Profitability

A return to only ~0.2% net margin after a 2024 net loss leaves earnings extremely thin. Minimal margin cushion makes results highly sensitive to COGS or labor inflation and slows internally funded recovery, prolonging the timeline to generate sustainable retained earnings.

Weak Cash Conversion

Declining FCF and poor profit-to-cash conversion (~0.35x) limit debt service capacity and the ability to fund capex or shareholder returns from operations. Weak cash conversion increases reliance on refranchising or external financing to support the turnaround over several quarters.

Bloomin' Brands Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Bloomin' Brands, Inc., through its subsidiaries, owns and operates casual, upscale casual, and fine dining restaurants in the United States and internationally. The company operates through two segments, U.S. and International. Its restaurant portfolio has four concepts, including Outback Steakhouse, a casual steakhouse restaurant; Carrabba's Italian Grill, a casual Italian restaurant; Bonefish Grill; and Fleming's Prime Steakhouse & Wine Bar, a contemporary steakhouse. As of December 26, 2021, the company owned and operated 1,013 full-service restaurants and franchised 157 restaurants across 47 states; and 156 full-service restaurants and franchised 172 restaurants across 17 countries and Guam. The company was founded in 1988 and is based in Tampa, Florida.

How the Company Makes Money

Bloomin' Brands generates revenue primarily through its restaurant operations, which include company-owned and franchised locations. The major revenue streams consist of food and beverage sales, as well as take-out and delivery services. The company also benefits from its franchising model, where franchisees pay initial franchise fees and ongoing royalties based on sales. Additionally, Bloomin' Brands engages in strategic partnerships and collaborations to enhance brand visibility and expand its customer base. Seasonal promotions and loyalty programs further contribute to its earnings by driving repeat business and attracting new customers.

Bloomin' Brands Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Sales momentum improved most recently, but profitability is weak (2024 net loss; 2025 net margin ~0.2%) and margins remain compressed. Leverage is a major constraint (debt-to-equity ~3.7x in 2025), and while operating cash flow is positive, free cash flow weakened and profit-to-cash conversion is low.

Income Statement

Revenue has been relatively flat over the last few years, with a return to growth in 2025 (+10.6% annual). Profitability, however, has weakened materially versus 2021–2023 levels: 2024 swung to a net loss and 2025 returned to a small profit but with a very thin net margin (~0.2%). Operating profitability also looks compressed in the most recent year (low operating and EBITDA margins), suggesting cost pressure and limited earnings resilience despite stable sales.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is the key constraint. Debt remains high relative to equity, with debt-to-equity elevated across the period and still ~3.7x in 2025 (and extremely high in 2024 when equity was very low). While 2025 equity improved versus 2024, the capital structure remains debt-heavy, which can reduce flexibility in a softer demand or higher-rate environment. Returns on equity are also volatile, reflecting inconsistent profitability and a small equity base.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is mixed but generally positive. Operating cash flow remained positive in all years provided and improved in 2025 versus 2024, while free cash flow was positive but declined in 2025 (down ~26.6% year over year). A notable risk is that recent free cash flow is low relative to reported earnings (2025 free cash flow to net income ~0.35x), indicating weaker conversion of profits into cash and less cushion for debt service, reinvestment, or shareholder returns.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.96B	3.95B	4.17B	4.01B	4.12B
Gross Profit	2.21B	2.80B	719.17M	674.88M	731.70M
EBITDA	219.65M	179.37M	452.04M	330.67M	470.28M
Net Income	8.24M	-128.02M	247.39M	101.91M	215.56M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.17B	3.38B	3.42B	3.32B	3.29B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	59.46M	70.06M	111.52M	84.73M	87.58M
Total Debt	1.22B	2.27B	2.03B	2.16B	1.97B
Total Liabilities	2.83B	3.25B	3.01B	3.05B	3.07B
Stockholders Equity	333.60M	135.51M	409.12M	271.37M	216.46M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	96.02M	7.39M	250.19M	171.23M	279.63M
Operating Cash Flow	275.95M	228.13M	532.42M	390.92M	402.45M
Investing Cash Flow	2.11M	-239.03M	-315.21M	-204.76M	-103.40M
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	-23.51M	-189.02M	-191.88M	-318.77M

Bloomin' Brands Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 6.18
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BLMN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 6.18 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.43, below the 50-day MA of 6.76, and below the 200-day MA of 7.45, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.21 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.37 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 8.02 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BLMN.

Bloomin' Brands Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BJRI	71 Outperform	$853.42M	30.59	13.26%	―	3.85%	7.57%
CAKE	69 Neutral	$3.21B	21.05	33.74%	2.11%	4.90%	27.14%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
PTLO	55 Neutral	$401.75M	19.08	4.45%	―	2.40%	-14.90%
BLMN	45 Neutral	$500.22M	60.77	3.71%	10.60%	-13.07%	-1139.12%
VENU	44 Neutral	$233.00M	-4.93	-40.00%	―	―	―

Bloomin' Brands Corporate Events

Bloomin’ Brands Approves CEO Retention Performance Stock Grant

On February 10, 2026, Bloomin’ Brands’ Compensation Committee approved a special retention grant for Chief Executive Officer Michael Spanos, centered on performance stock units with a target grant date fair value of $2,000,000 that vest on February 27, 2029, subject to comparable sales and Adjusted EBITDA goals and his continued employment. The award, issued under the company’s 2025 Omnibus Incentive Compensation Plan, includes continued vesting if he is terminated without cause, contingent on compliance with a one-year noncompetition agreement and other restrictive covenants that allow the company to forfeit or claw back shares upon violation, underscoring a strong emphasis on leadership retention and performance alignment for shareholders.

By tying Mr. Spanos’s compensation to multi-year operating metrics such as comparable sales and Adjusted EBITDA, Bloomin’ Brands is reinforcing a pay-for-performance structure aimed at driving sustainable growth in its restaurant portfolio. The additional protections around noncompetition and clawback provisions signal the board’s intent to secure executive continuity while safeguarding corporate interests and shareholder value in a competitive restaurant industry environment.

The most recent analyst rating on (BLMN) stock is a Hold with a $6.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Bloomin’ Brands stock, see the BLMN Stock Forecast page.

Bloomin’ Brands Adds Planet Fitness CEO to Board

Bloomin’ Brands, Inc., a major global casual dining restaurant operator behind Outback Steakhouse, Carrabba’s Italian Grill, Bonefish Grill and Fleming’s Prime Steakhouse & Wine Bar, owns, operates and franchises more than 1,450 restaurants across 46 states, Guam and 12 countries. The company focuses on differentiated, consumer-facing concepts that blend scale with strong franchise and operational capabilities in the competitive casual dining sector.

On February 11, 2026, Bloomin’ Brands expanded its Board of Directors from 10 to 11 members and appointed Planet Fitness CEO Colleen Keating as a director and member of the Compensation Committee. The February 12, 2026 announcement underscores the company’s push to deepen its board-level expertise in franchising, hospitality and consumer brands, with Keating’s extensive P&L, franchise and governance background expected to support strategic growth and guest-experience initiatives.

The most recent analyst rating on (BLMN) stock is a Hold with a $6.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Bloomin’ Brands stock, see the BLMN Stock Forecast page.

Bloomin’ Brands Updates Severance Plan and Grants

On December 8, 2025, Bloomin’ Brands, Inc. updated its Severance Pay Plan for salaried employees at the Vice President level and above, removing severance for those terminated due to poor performance and adding outplacement services for eligible employees. Additionally, the company approved special retention grants for CEO Michael Spanos and EVP Kelly Lefferts, with restricted stock units vesting over three years, subject to continued employment and compliance with noncompetition agreements.

The most recent analyst rating on (BLMN) stock is a Hold with a $7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Bloomin’ Brands stock, see the BLMN Stock Forecast page.