Bloomin' Brands (BLMN)
NASDAQ:BLMN
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Bloomin' Brands
(NASDAQ:BLMN)
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Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
$8.50
▲(26.30% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/10/26
The score is held back primarily by weak/volatile profitability and a leveraged balance sheet despite improving revenue and free-cash-flow momentum. Technicals are constructive but overbought, while valuation is a clear positive (very low P/E and high dividend yield). The latest earnings call was cautiously positive with guidance reiterated, but traffic and cost inflation remain notable near-term risks.
Positive Factors
Recovery in free cash flow
A sharp FCF recovery to ~$119M and >2,300% TTM FCF growth creates durable internal funding for remodels, marketing and debt reduction. This strengthens financial optionality over 2–6 months and lowers reliance on external capital to execute the refresh and expansion plans.
Negative Factors
High balance-sheet leverage
Leverage near multi‑x levels limits strategic flexibility and increases sensitivity to operating swings. Even with debt reduction, high debt relative to equity constrains how quickly the company can fund refreshes and marketing without diverting cash to debt service or issuing new capital.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Recovery in free cash flow
A sharp FCF recovery to ~$119M and >2,300% TTM FCF growth creates durable internal funding for remodels, marketing and debt reduction. This strengthens financial optionality over 2–6 months and lowers reliance on external capital to execute the refresh and expansion plans.
Read all positive factors
Bloomin' Brands (BLMN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$669.08M
Dividend Yield10.6%
Average Volume (3M)2.76M
Price to Earnings (P/E)2.0
Beta (1Y)1.34
Revenue Growth-5.10%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees81,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryRestaurants
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.25
Shares Outstanding85,614,290
10 Day Avg. Volume2,376,514
30 Day Avg. Volume2,759,978
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.96
Price to Book (P/B)1.61
Price to Sales (P/S)0.14
P/FCF Ratio5.55
Enterprise Value/Market Cap3.86
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.65
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.20
Enterprise Value/Ebitda11.36
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$7.96Price Target Upside18.23% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)0.88
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.97B
Bloomin' Brands Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Bloomin' Brands, Inc., through its subsidiaries, owns and operates casual, upscale casual, and fine dining restaurants in the United States and internationally. The company operates through two segments, U.S. and International. Its restaurant port...
How the Company Makes Money
Bloomin’ Brands makes money primarily through restaurant sales at company-owned locations and through royalties and fees from franchised restaurants. The largest revenue stream is food and beverage sales to guests at company-operated restaurants, ...
Bloomin' Brands Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 24, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a cautiously positive tone. The company showed modest revenue and adjusted EPS growth, improving guest satisfaction and clear progress on strategic initiatives (new steak lineup, service model, targeted refresh program). Several brands, notably Bonefish, delivered strong comp performance. However, meaningful near-term challenges remain: traffic declines (partly weather-related), commodity and labor inflation, slight margin compression, Brazil investment losses and leverage levels. Management reiterated guidance, emphasized early-turnaround momentum and prioritized investments in the customer experience while remaining cost conscious.Positive Updates
Revenue and EPS Growth
Q1 total revenues of $1.06 billion, up ~1% versus $1.05 billion a year ago. GAAP diluted EPS $0.64 versus $0.50 last year; Q1 adjusted diluted EPS $0.67 versus $0.59 last year (adjusted EPS +13.6% YoY).
Negative Updates
Traffic Declines and Weather Headwind
System U.S. traffic down 180 basis points (1.8%) in Q1; Outback traffic down 240 basis points (2.4%). Company estimates ~240 basis points (2.4%) of weather impact in Q1, partially lapping ~130 basis points of negative impact from prior-year Q1.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue and EPS Growth
Q1 total revenues of $1.06 billion, up ~1% versus $1.05 billion a year ago. GAAP diluted EPS $0.64 versus $0.50 last year; Q1 adjusted diluted EPS $0.67 versus $0.59 last year (adjusted EPS +13.6% YoY).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For Q2 2026 management guided U.S. comparable restaurant sales of +1% to +2% and adjusted diluted EPS of $0.27–$0.32, with an expected tax benefit of $4–$5 million and a 33% Brazil equity‑method loss of roughly $1.2–$1.7 million, and reiterated full‑year 2026 guidance from February. They expect full‑year capital expenditures of $185–$195 million (Q1 capex was $25 million), plan to refresh nearly 100% of Outback locations by 2028 at an average ~$350k–$400k per restaurant, will increase marketing (≈+$10 million in H2) to low‑to‑mid‑2s% of revenue with a ~60% digital/40% linear mix, and have char‑grill capacity expansion largely complete by mid‑year. Recent operating context embedded in the guidance includes Q1 revenue of $1.06 billion, Q1 adjusted diluted EPS $0.67 (GAAP $0.64), Q1 adjusted operating margin 5.9% (vs. 6.1% LY), Q1 U.S. comps +90 bps with traffic -180 bps and average check +270 bps, off‑premises at 23% of U.S. sales, commodity inflation ~4.6% (85% of commodities locked, beef locked), labor inflation ~3.1%, total debt net of cash $681 million, and leverage of 3.8x lease‑adjusted / 2.2x net‑debt-to‑adjusted EBITDA.Bloomin' Brands Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
44
Neutral
Balance Sheet
33
Negative
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.97B | 3.96B | 3.95B | 4.17B | 4.01B | 4.12B |
| Gross Profit | 2.16B | 351.88M | 2.80B | 719.17M | 674.88M | 731.70M |
| EBITDA | 227.25M | 210.10M | 179.37M | 452.04M | 330.67M | 470.28M |
| Net Income | 21.74M | 5.38M | -128.02M | 247.39M | 101.91M | 215.56M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.11B | 3.17B | 3.38B | 3.42B | 3.32B | 3.29B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 71.30M | 59.46M | 70.06M | 111.52M | 84.73M | 87.58M |
| Total Debt | 1.98B | 3.07B | 2.27B | 2.03B | 2.16B | 1.97B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.72B | 2.83B | 3.25B | 3.01B | 3.05B | 3.07B |
| Stockholders Equity | 395.53M | 333.60M | 135.51M | 409.12M | 271.37M | 216.46M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 119.19M | 96.77M | 7.39M | 250.19M | 171.23M | 279.63M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 278.53M | 276.69M | 228.13M | 532.42M | 390.92M | 402.45M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -62.33M | 2.11M | -239.03M | -315.21M | -204.76M | -103.40M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -202.56M | -289.09M | -23.51M | -189.02M | -191.88M | -318.77M |
Bloomin' Brands Technical Analysis
Positive
6.73
Price Trends
6.46
Positive
6.53
Positive
6.76
Positive
Market Momentum
0.44
Positive
60.51
Neutral
37.78
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BLMN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 6.73 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.28, above the 50-day MA of 6.46, and below the 200-day MA of 6.76, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.44 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 60.51 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 37.78 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BLMN.
Bloomin' Brands Risk Analysis
Bloomin' Brands disclosed 31 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Bloomin' Brands reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Bloomin' Brands Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $936.51M | 20.55 | 11.97% | ― | 3.02% | 110.25% | |
67 Neutral | $3.04B | 12.87 | 38.34% | 2.11% | 5.14% | 8.17% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
55 Neutral | $669.08M | 2.05 | 5.91% | 10.60% | -5.10% | ― | |
48 Neutral | $305.50M | -235.32 | 3.37% | ― | 2.37% | -49.32% | |
42 Neutral | $225.25M | -0.02 | -29.57% | ― | 5.20% | -6.01% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
BLMN
Bloomin' Brands
7.82
0.43
5.87%
BJRI
BJ's Restaurants
44.56
2.12
4.98%
CAKE
Cheesecake Factory
61.14
9.59
18.60%
PTLO
Portillo's
4.03
-7.71
-65.67%
VENU
Venu Holding Corporation
3.77
-7.03
-65.09%
Bloomin' Brands Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Bloomin’ Brands shareholders back board, pay and incentive plans
Positive
Apr 24, 2026
On April 22, 2026, Bloomin’ Brands, Inc. held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where shareholders elected nine directors to one-year terms and ratified PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as the independent auditor for the fiscal year ending ...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Bloomin’ Brands Approves CEO Retention Performance Stock Grant
Positive
Feb 13, 2026
On February 10, 2026, Bloomin’ Brands’ Compensation Committee approved a special retention grant for Chief Executive Officer Michael Spanos, centered on performance stock units with a target grant date fair value of $2,000,000 that ves...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Bloomin’ Brands Adds Planet Fitness CEO to Board
Positive
Feb 12, 2026
Bloomin’ Brands, Inc., a major global casual dining restaurant operator behind Outback Steakhouse, Carrabba’s Italian Grill, Bonefish Grill and Fleming’s Prime Steakhouse Wine Bar, owns, operates and franchises more than 1,450 r...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.