Bloomin' Brands (BLMN)
NASDAQ:BLMN
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Bloomin' Brands
(NASDAQ:BLMN)
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Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$6.50
▼(-3.42% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/25/26
The score is held back primarily by weak profitability and high leverage despite improving sales and positive (but mixed) cash generation. Offsetting factors include moderately improving near-term technicals, a very high dividend yield, and an earnings call that highlighted operational momentum and debt reduction, though inflation-driven margin pressure remains a key risk.
Positive Factors
Sales Recovery
A return to revenue growth (+10.6% in 2025) reflects renewed guest demand across concepts. Durable top-line momentum supports royalty and company-store cash flows, helps fund remodels and marketing, and reduces the operating-leverage drag while the turnaround plan is executed over coming quarters.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
An elevated debt-to-equity position (~3.7x) leaves limited maneuvering room. High leverage raises sensitivity to sales volatility and rate moves, increases fixed servicing costs, and constrains the pace of reinvestment or strategic M&A absent sustained cash-flow improvement.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Sales Recovery
A return to revenue growth (+10.6% in 2025) reflects renewed guest demand across concepts. Durable top-line momentum supports royalty and company-store cash flows, helps fund remodels and marketing, and reduces the operating-leverage drag while the turnaround plan is executed over coming quarters.
Read all positive factors
Bloomin' Brands (BLMN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$519.89M
Dividend Yield10.6%
Average Volume (3M)2.90M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.16
Revenue Growth-8.53%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees81,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryRestaurants
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.25
Shares Outstanding85,227,620
10 Day Avg. Volume2,205,628
30 Day Avg. Volume2,900,174
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.96
Price to Book (P/B)1.61
Price to Sales (P/S)0.14
P/FCF Ratio5.59
Enterprise Value/Market Cap6.77
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.89
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.60
Enterprise Value/Ebitda16.03
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$6.50Price Target Upside-3.42% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Sell
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)0.85
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.96B
Bloomin' Brands Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Bloomin' Brands, Inc., through its subsidiaries, owns and operates casual, upscale casual, and fine dining restaurants in the United States and internationally. The company operates through two segments, U.S. and International. Its restaurant port...
How the Company Makes Money
Bloomin’ Brands makes money primarily through restaurant sales at company-owned locations and through royalties and fees from franchised restaurants. The largest revenue stream is food and beverage sales to guests at company-operated restaurants, ...
Bloomin' Brands Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 25, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a cautiously optimistic tone: management highlighted clear early progress in traffic, guest satisfaction, brand scores, a successful new steak lineup, and meaningful debt reduction, supported by a structured turnaround plan and targeted 2026 investments. At the same time, the company faces near-term margin pressure from commodity and labor inflation, a Q4 GAAP loss driven by impairments, Brazil equity losses, intentional check/mix investments that moderate check growth, and weather-related near-term sales headwinds. Overall, operational momentum and a disciplined plan appear to outweigh the near-term financial and cost challenges, but execution and inflation remain risks to watch.Positive Updates
Traffic and Guest Metrics Improvement
U.S. comparable restaurant traffic up 50 basis points in Q4; Outperformed industry (Black Box) on traffic by 190 basis points in the quarter. Outback traffic up 90 basis points (first positive Outback traffic quarter since Q4 2021). Bonefish traffic improved +230 basis points. Company reported steady gains in guest metric scores and two consecutive quarters of brand score growth.
Negative Updates
Mixed Same-Store Sales Performance
Q4 consolidated comparable restaurant sales were flat year-over-year; company trailed the casual dining industry on comp sales by ~40 basis points (but narrowed that gap quarter-over-quarter by 280 basis points). Outback comps were down 60 basis points despite traffic improvement.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Traffic and Guest Metrics Improvement
U.S. comparable restaurant traffic up 50 basis points in Q4; Outperformed industry (Black Box) on traffic by 190 basis points in the quarter. Outback traffic up 90 basis points (first positive Outback traffic quarter since Q4 2021). Bonefish traffic improved +230 basis points. Company reported steady gains in guest metric scores and two consecutive quarters of brand score growth.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For fiscal 2026 the company guided U.S. comparable restaurant sales of +0.5% to +2.5%, total commodity inflation of 4.5%–5.5% (beef high single digits), labor inflation of ~3%–3.5%, and adjusted diluted EPS of $0.75–$0.90 (which assumes a $15M–$18M tax benefit and a -$3M to -$4M impact from the 33% Brazil equity interest). They plan $185M–$195M of capex (roughly 60% remodel/maintenance, ~20% new units, remainder IT), expect to refresh ~100 Outbacks over three years at an average ~$350k–$400k per location and to open 6–8 new units in 2026, and will invest ~$50M in the turnaround offset by ~$30M of non‑guest‑facing productivity (net ~$20M); productivity targets are ~$30M in 2026 and $80M over 2026–2028. Q1 comps are guided flat to +1% with Q1 adjusted EPS $0.57–$0.62 (weather to date hurt comps ~-2.2% and EPS ~-$0.08). Year‑end leverage was ~3.9x lease‑adjusted and 2.4x net debt/adjusted EBITDA, with total debt down to ~$787M (net of cash ~$728M), and marketing shifting to ~60% digital/40% linear with ad spend into the mid‑/high‑2% of revenue.Bloomin' Brands Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
44
Neutral
Balance Sheet
28
Negative
Cash Flow
50
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 3.96B | 3.95B | 4.17B | 4.01B | 4.12B |
| Gross Profit | 351.88M | 2.80B | 719.17M | 674.88M | 731.70M |
| EBITDA | 210.10M | 179.37M | 452.04M | 330.67M | 470.28M |
| Net Income | 5.38M | -128.02M | 247.39M | 101.91M | 215.56M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 3.17B | 3.38B | 3.42B | 3.32B | 3.29B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 59.46M | 70.06M | 111.52M | 84.73M | 87.58M |
| Total Debt | 3.07B | 2.27B | 2.03B | 2.16B | 1.97B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.83B | 3.25B | 3.01B | 3.05B | 3.07B |
| Stockholders Equity | 333.60M | 135.51M | 409.12M | 271.37M | 216.46M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 96.02M | 7.39M | 250.19M | 171.23M | 279.63M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 275.95M | 228.13M | 532.42M | 390.92M | 402.45M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 3.39M | -239.03M | -315.21M | -204.76M | -103.40M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -290.37M | -23.51M | -189.02M | -191.88M | -318.77M |
Bloomin' Brands Technical Analysis
Positive
6.73
Price Trends
6.07
Positive
6.46
Positive
7.04
Negative
Market Momentum
0.14
Negative
64.63
Neutral
88.27
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BLMN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 6.73 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.83, above the 50-day MA of 6.07, and below the 200-day MA of 7.04, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.14 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.63 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 88.27 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BLMN.
Bloomin' Brands Risk Analysis
Bloomin' Brands disclosed 31 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Bloomin' Brands reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Bloomin' Brands Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $3.13B | 12.87 | 37.06% | 2.11% | 5.14% | 8.17% | |
69 Neutral | $807.15M | 17.08 | 13.19% | ― | 3.08% | 212.05% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
54 Neutral | $472.40M | 16.54 | 4.32% | ― | 3.03% | -40.23% | |
52 Neutral | $519.89M | -9.96 | 2.26% | 10.60% | -8.53% | ― | |
48 Neutral | $232.34M | -6.94 | -39.92% | ― | 0.35% | -37.47% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
BLMN
Bloomin' Brands
5.92
-1.78
-23.15%
BJRI
BJ's Restaurants
37.37
-1.34
-3.46%
CAKE
Cheesecake Factory
60.20
10.79
21.84%
PTLO
Portillo's
6.49
-3.91
-37.60%
VENU
Venu Holding Corporation
3.97
-4.37
-52.40%
Bloomin' Brands Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Bloomin’ Brands shareholders back board, pay and incentive plans
Positive
Apr 24, 2026
On April 22, 2026, Bloomin’ Brands, Inc. held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where shareholders elected nine directors to one-year terms and ratified PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as the independent auditor for the fiscal year ending ...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Bloomin’ Brands Approves CEO Retention Performance Stock Grant
Positive
Feb 13, 2026
On February 10, 2026, Bloomin’ Brands’ Compensation Committee approved a special retention grant for Chief Executive Officer Michael Spanos, centered on performance stock units with a target grant date fair value of $2,000,000 that ves...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Bloomin’ Brands Adds Planet Fitness CEO to Board
Positive
Feb 12, 2026
Bloomin’ Brands, Inc., a major global casual dining restaurant operator behind Outback Steakhouse, Carrabba’s Italian Grill, Bonefish Grill and Fleming’s Prime Steakhouse Wine Bar, owns, operates and franchises more than 1,450 r...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.