Bloomin' Brands (BLMN) AI Stock Analysis

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Bloomin' Brands

(NASDAQ:BLMN)

Rating:47Neutral

Price Target:

$7.00

▲(1.30% Upside)

Bloomin' Brands' overall stock score is primarily impacted by its weak financial performance, characterized by declining revenue and high leverage. Technical indicators suggest a bearish trend, and valuation metrics indicate potential financial instability. While recent leadership changes and strategic initiatives are positive, the lowered earnings guidance and ongoing operational challenges weigh heavily on the stock's outlook.

Bloomin' Brands (BLMN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$588.67M

Dividend Yield9.99%

Average Volume (3M)2.96M

Price to Earnings (P/E)―

Beta (1Y)0.80

Revenue Growth-11.45%

EPS Growth-121.89%

CountryUS

Employees81,000

SectorConsumer Cyclical

Sector Strength81

IndustryRestaurants

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.33

Shares Outstanding85,068,420

10 Day Avg. Volume1,966,406

30 Day Avg. Volume2,961,841

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio0.05

Price to Book (P/B)7.68

Price to Sales (P/S)0.26

P/FCF Ratio140.68

Enterprise Value/Market Cap4.86

Enterprise Value/Revenue0.70

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.84

Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.66

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$7.75

Price Target Upside12.16% Upside

Rating ConsensusHold

Number of Analyst Covering6

Bloomin' Brands Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionBloomin' Brands, Inc., through its subsidiaries, owns and operates casual, upscale casual, and fine dining restaurants in the United States and internationally. The company operates through two segments, U.S. and International. Its restaurant portfolio has four concepts, including Outback Steakhouse, a casual steakhouse restaurant; Carrabba's Italian Grill, a casual Italian restaurant; Bonefish Grill; and Fleming's Prime Steakhouse & Wine Bar, a contemporary steakhouse. As of December 26, 2021, the company owned and operated 1,013 full-service restaurants and franchised 157 restaurants across 47 states; and 156 full-service restaurants and franchised 172 restaurants across 17 countries and Guam. The company was founded in 1988 and is based in Tampa, Florida.

How the Company Makes MoneyBloomin' Brands generates revenue primarily through the operation of its restaurant brands, which include company-owned locations and franchised establishments. The majority of its income comes from food and beverage sales within its restaurants. Additionally, the company benefits from franchise royalties and fees paid by franchisees, contributing to its overall revenue stream. Seasonal promotions, special menu items, and partnerships with delivery services also enhance sales. The company's strong brand recognition and focus on customer experience help drive repeat business and attract new customers, further bolstering its earnings.

Bloomin' Brands Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2025

(Q2-2025)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:Oct 24, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call reflected a mix of positive and negative elements. While there were notable improvements in traffic and operational efficiencies, significant challenges remain, including market share loss and increased costs. The company's proactive steps in leadership restructuring and strategic initiatives indicate a focus on long-term growth. However, lowered guidance and continued challenges at certain brands suggest a cautious outlook.

Q2-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Improvement in U.S. Traffic and Sales Comp

U.S. traffic saw a sequential improvement with a decline of only 2% in Q2, which is 190 basis points better than Q1. The Q2 sales comp was negative 10 basis points, showing an improvement from Q1's negative 50 basis points.

Operational Improvements

The introduction of the Aussie 3-course offering contributed significantly to traffic improvement at Outback. Menu reductions across brands have been fully implemented, leading to streamlined operations.

Carrabba's and Fleming's Sales Growth

Carrabba's achieved positive comp sales growth driven by strong off-premises sales, including catering and wine dinners. Fleming's maintained momentum with strong holiday and in-restaurant traffic.

Leadership Team Expansion

Significant leadership changes were announced, including a new Executive Vice President of Strategy and Transformation, a CFO-elect, and a new Chief Human Resources Officer to drive the company's strategic initiatives.

Stable Off-Premises Sales

Off-premises sales remained stable at 24% of total U.S. sales, consistent with last year, with Outback at 26% and Carrabba's at 35%.

Negative Updates

Outback Market Share Loss

Despite improvements, Outback is still losing market share in the industry, as defined by Black Box.

Decline in Adjusted Operating Margins

Q2 adjusted operating margins declined to 3.5% from 6.0% last year, attributed to a 200 basis points decline in adjusted restaurant level margin and cost inflation.

Increased Costs and Expenses

COGS inflation was 3.3% and labor inflation was 3.4%. Additionally, there were 50 basis points from increased health insurance costs and higher restaurant operating expenses.

Challenges at Bonefish Grill

Traffic trends at Bonefish Grill have been challenging, with risks incorporated into the guidance.

Lower Guidance for EPS

Adjusted diluted earnings per share guidance was lowered to a range of $1 to $1.10, due to various factors including tariff impacts, increased insurance costs, and investments in quality, service, and value.

Company Guidance

During the Bloomin' Brands, Inc. second quarter 2025 earnings call, the company provided fiscal guidance indicating their adjusted diluted earnings per share for the year is expected to be between $1.00 and $1.10. The guidance reflects key factors including a tariff impact anticipated to affect restaurant level margins by approximately 20 basis points, a $6 million to $8 million expense due to increased general liability insurance costs, and an investment of around $3 million in the Outback Steakhouse turnaround efforts. The company aims to enhance steak quality, service, and value as part of the turnaround, with 42 restaurants undergoing testing to improve guest experience. Additionally, the company has committed to maintaining a lease-adjusted net leverage ratio below 3.0x following the anticipated receipt of further proceeds from the Brazil refranchising transaction. Bloomin' Brands also plans to reallocate capital from new restaurant openings to remodels, expecting to complete approximately 10 remodels this year.

Bloomin' Brands Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Bloomin' Brands faces challenges with profitability and leverage. While operational cash flow is strong, profitability issues and high debt levels pose risks. The company needs to improve profit margins and manage debt to enhance financial stability.

Income Statement

Neutral

The income statement reveals a mixed performance. Gross profit margins have been stable, but net profit margins are negative in recent periods, indicating challenges in turning revenues into profits. Revenue growth has been inconsistent, with a notable decline recently. EBIT and EBITDA margins are moderate, reflecting operational efficiency issues.

Balance Sheet

Neutral

The balance sheet shows a high debt-to-equity ratio, indicating significant leverage and potential risk. Return on equity is negative, driven by net losses, which is concerning for shareholders. The equity ratio is relatively low, suggesting limited financial flexibility.

Cash Flow

Neutral

Cash flow analysis indicates positive operating cash flow, but free cash flow growth has been inconsistent. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong, suggesting good cash generation relative to net income, but free cash flow remains low compared to net income.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.06B	3.95B	4.67B	4.42B	4.12B	3.17B
Gross Profit	3.39B	2.80B	810.36M	740.75M	731.70M	336.00M
EBITDA	268.56M	179.37M	516.32M	515.40M	491.49M	81.77M
Net Income	-4.98M	-128.02M	247.39M	101.91M	215.56M	-158.79M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.31B	3.38B	3.42B	3.32B	3.29B	3.36B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	50.31M	70.06M	111.52M	84.73M	87.58M	109.98M
Total Debt	2.16B	2.27B	2.09B	1.98B	1.97B	2.25B
Total Liabilities	2.91B	3.25B	3.01B	3.05B	3.07B	3.35B
Stockholders Equity	397.24M	135.51M	409.12M	273.91M	222.85M	10.96M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	61.54M	7.39M	208.17M	171.23M	279.63M	51.01M
Operating Cash Flow	235.07M	228.13M	532.42M	390.92M	402.45M	138.85M
Investing Cash Flow	-109.01M	-239.03M	-317.11M	-201.14M	-104.75M	-76.64M
Financing Cash Flow	-187.12M	-23.51M	-187.13M	-195.50M	-317.42M	-16.77M

Bloomin' Brands Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price6.91

Price Trends

50DMA

8.24

Negative

100DMA

8.11

Negative

200DMA

9.19

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.28

Negative

RSI

41.21

Neutral

STOCH

18.12

Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BLMN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 6.91 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.09, below the 50-day MA of 8.24, and below the 200-day MA of 9.19, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.28 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 41.21 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.12 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BLMN.

Bloomin' Brands Risk Analysis

Bloomin' Brands disclosed 31 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Bloomin' Brands reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Bloomin' Brands Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
DPZ	71 Outperform	$15.75B	26.93	-14.74%	1.42%	3.65%	5.71%
CAKE	68 Neutral	$3.02B	18.66	41.01%	1.80%	4.77%	38.24%
EAT	68 Neutral	$6.97B	18.74	186.74%	―	21.95%	146.44%
BJRI	67 Neutral	$742.49M	28.22	7.12%	―	4.07%	-1.24%
CBRL	64 Neutral	$1.13B	19.76	12.90%	1.99%	2.84%	-4.44%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.02B	12.77	-0.74%	3.01%	1.30%	-13.03%
BLMN	47 Neutral	$588.67M	―	24.74%	9.99%	-11.45%	-121.89%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

BLMN

Bloomin' Brands

6.91

-8.03

-53.75%

BJRI

BJ's Restaurants

32.81

4.10

14.28%

EAT

Brinker International

155.72

85.73

122.49%

CBRL

Cracker Barrel

50.36

14.59

40.79%

DPZ

Domino's Pizza

458.97

57.04

14.19%

CAKE

Cheesecake Factory

59.11

23.59

66.41%

Bloomin' Brands Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy

Bloomin’ Brands Announces Major Leadership Changes

Positive

Aug 4, 2025

On August 4, 2025, Bloomin’ Brands announced significant leadership changes to support its business turnaround, particularly focusing on the Outback Steakhouse brand. Eric Christel was appointed as Executive Vice President and CFO-Elect, bringing nearly two decades of financial leadership experience from companies like Campbell’s and PepsiCo. Michael Healy will transition to Executive Vice President, Strategy & Transformation, leading strategic initiatives for the company’s turnaround. Other key appointments include Jessica Mitory as Chief Human Resources Officer and Ali Charri as Senior Vice President, Guest Insights and Analytics. The company aims to enhance operational focus and drive sustainable growth through these leadership realignments.

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Sep 09, 2025