BillionToOne, Inc. Class A (BLLN)
NASDAQ:BLLN
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BillionToOne, Inc. Class A
(NASDAQ:BLLN)
Select Model
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
$99.00
▲(28.57% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/01/26
The score is driven primarily by improving fundamentals (rapid growth, margin expansion, and de-leveraging) and a strong, guidance-raising earnings call. This is partially offset by very stretched valuation (high P/E) and mixed technicals (negative MACD and trading below the 50-day average), which reduce near-term attractiveness despite the operational momentum.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth & Guidance
A sustained doubling of revenue in 2025 and a raised 2026 guide indicate durable commercial traction and scalable demand for UNITY tests. This underpins expanding clinical adoption, supports continued investment in sales/clinical operations, and increases visibility for multi-year growth assuming execution of payer and health-system rollouts.
Negative Factors
Reimbursement Risk for Oncology
Oncology upside depends materially on MolDX/CMS coverage for Northstar Response; lack of confirmed reimbursement constrains revenue visibility and adoption at scale. Delayed or negative coverage would slow oncology volume growth and limit realization of the product's revenue and margin potential over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue Growth & Guidance
A sustained doubling of revenue in 2025 and a raised 2026 guide indicate durable commercial traction and scalable demand for UNITY tests. This underpins expanding clinical adoption, supports continued investment in sales/clinical operations, and increases visibility for multi-year growth assuming execution of payer and health-system rollouts.
Read all positive factors
BillionToOne, Inc. Class A (BLLN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.62B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)340.32K
Price to Earnings (P/E)502.9
Beta (1Y)1.12
Revenue GrowthN/A
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees620
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Diagnostics & Research
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.11
Shares Outstanding41,413,162
10 Day Avg. Volume354,994
30 Day Avg. Volume340,317
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-4.71
Price to Book (P/B)7.81
Price to Sales (P/S)12.29
P/FCF Ratio238.56
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.94
Enterprise Value/Revenue11.20
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit16.40
Enterprise Value/Ebitda186.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$120.00Price Target Upside55.84% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)0.47
Revenue Forecast (FY)$436.52M
BillionToOne, Inc. Class A Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
BillionToOne, Inc., a precision diagnostics company, quantifies biology to create molecular diagnostics. The company provides molecular counting platform, which is designed to detect and measure DNA molecules at the single-count level to help enha...
How the Company Makes Money
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BillionToOne, Inc. Class A Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 04, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Dec 15, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a strongly positive operational and financial story: exceptional top-line growth (100% YoY), margin expansion (71% gross margin, GAAP profitability), robust cash balance, multiple product launches, and payer wins including UnitedHealthcare. Key near-term risks include reimbursement timing for Northstar Response (MolDX/CMS), rising operating expenses as the company scales, oncology being a small absolute base despite rapid percentage growth, and execution dependencies for health-system integrations and broader provider awareness. Overall, the company emphasized continued momentum and conservative guidance that still leaves multiple upside catalysts unmodeled.Positive Updates
Exceptional Full-Year Growth and Profitability
Full year 2025 revenue $305.1M, up 100% year-over-year; achieved GAAP operating income of $16.0M (operating profit margin 5%) and adjusted EBITDA $38.8M (13% margin); positive cash flow from operations minus capex $16M for full year.
Negative Updates
Rising Operating Expenses
Total operating expenses increased 56% year-over-year in Q4 to $58.3M (R&D $14.3M, SG&A $44.0M), reflecting investments to scale sales and commercial activities.
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Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Exceptional Full-Year Growth and Profitability
Full year 2025 revenue $305.1M, up 100% year-over-year; achieved GAAP operating income of $16.0M (operating profit margin 5%) and adjusted EBITDA $38.8M (13% margin); positive cash flow from operations minus capex $16M for full year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
BillionToOne raised 2026 revenue guidance to $430–$445 million (a $15 million lift at both ends vs. prior $415–$430M), implying 41–46% growth versus 2025 revenue of $305.1M, and reiterated it expects positive GAAP operating income for the full year; the guidance excludes true‑up revenue and does not assume upside from the UnitedHealthcare in‑network contract (effective April 1) or potential large health‑system EMR integrations. The raise was driven by Q4 strength — Q4 revenue $96.1M (113% YoY), ~170k tests in Q4, Q4 ASP $561 (FY 2025 ASP $495; FY tests 610k), Q4 gross margin 71.4% (FY adjusted EBITDA $38.8M, 13% margin; FY operating income $16M, 5% margin) — and the company expects to grow its field force to ~185 prenatal and ~65 oncology reps by year‑end; upside catalysts called out include MolDX coverage for Northstar Response (Response = ~2/3 of oncology volume), further payer contracts and health‑system adoptions.BillionToOne, Inc. Class A Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
68
Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
57
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||
| Total Revenue | 305.11M | 152.58M | 71.73M |
| Gross Profit | 208.46M | 80.92M | 17.31M |
| EBITDA | 16.02M | -27.47M | -72.94M |
| Net Income | 7.45M | -41.57M | -82.68M |
Balance Sheet | |||
| Total Assets | 632.65M | 302.06M | 191.68M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 495.98M | 191.48M | 97.27M |
| Total Debt | 108.89M | 109.38M | 146.35M |
| Total Liabilities | 152.55M | 134.31M | 161.20M |
| Stockholders Equity | 480.11M | 167.75M | 30.47M |
Cash Flow | |||
| Free Cash Flow | 15.71M | -46.78M | -59.85M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 24.59M | -41.38M | -53.67M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -8.92M | -5.43M | 82.84M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 288.82M | 141.02M | 13.40M |
BillionToOne, Inc. Class A Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
66 Neutral | $3.62B | 502.91 | 1.30% | ― | ― | ― | |
64 Neutral | $28.62B | -150.47 | -15.28% | ― | 38.17% | -28.77% | |
54 Neutral | $1.97B | -7.70 | -17.11% | ― | 20.53% | 82.91% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
50 Neutral | $477.83M | -13.36 | -5.40% | ― | 13.60% | 74.64% | |
49 Neutral | $10.78B | -30.76 | 164.85% | ― | 30.38% | 24.17% | |
48 Neutral | $429.20M | -1.57 | -79.81% | ― | 0.21% | -233.51% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
BLLN
BillionToOne, Inc. Class A
82.79
-26.15
-24.00%
MYGN
Myriad Genetics
4.91
-3.10
-38.70%
NTRA
Natera
214.64
62.90
41.45%
FLGT
Fulgent Genetics
16.02
-3.06
-16.04%
GH
Guardant Health
86.40
41.55
92.64%
GRAL
GRAIL Inc
50.49
24.55
94.64%
BillionToOne, Inc. Class A Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesFinancial Disclosures
BillionToOne Raises 2026 Guidance, Aligns Incentive Plan
Positive
Mar 4, 2026
In 2025, BillionToOne doubled total revenue to $305.1 million and turned to profitability, driven by strong growth in prenatal and oncology testing volumes and higher average selling prices. On March 4, 2026, the company reported fourth-quarter re...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
BillionToOne Issues Strong 2026 Growth and Profit Outlook
Positive
Jan 12, 2026
On January 12, 2026, BillionToOne, Inc. announced financial guidance indicating it expects to maintain previously reiterated full-year 2025 revenue in the range of $293 million to $299 million with positive GAAP operating income, and projected tha...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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