BillionToOne, Inc. Class A (BLLN)
NASDAQ:BLLN
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BillionToOne, Inc. Class A
(NASDAQ:BLLN)
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Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$93.00
▲(20.78% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/12/26
The score is driven primarily by strong operational momentum and upbeat guidance from the latest earnings call, supported by improving fundamentals (higher margins, profitability turning positive, and materially reduced leverage) and strong technical uptrend. The main constraint is valuation, with a high P/E and no dividend support, plus execution/reimbursement risks that could pressure margins and results.
Positive Factors
Revenue inflection & margin expansion
A meaningful revenue inflection with materially higher gross margins and a move to positive EBIT/net income signals improved unit economics. Durable margin expansion increases internal funding capacity for R&D and commercialization and reduces dependence on external financing over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Dependence on Medicare coverage for oncology
Oncology economics and ASP sustainability hinge on obtaining Medicare coverage. A delayed or unfavorable decision would reduce addressable reimbursement and could force lower pricing or limit adoption, materially slowing oncology margin normalization and multi-year revenue potential.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue inflection & margin expansion
A meaningful revenue inflection with materially higher gross margins and a move to positive EBIT/net income signals improved unit economics. Durable margin expansion increases internal funding capacity for R&D and commercialization and reduces dependence on external financing over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
BillionToOne, Inc. Class A (BLLN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.96B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)637.67K
Price to Earnings (P/E)50.4
Beta (1Y)1.21
Revenue Growth98.49%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees620
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Diagnostics & Research
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.51
Shares Outstanding41,442,833
10 Day Avg. Volume840,530
30 Day Avg. Volume637,669
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-4.71
Price to Book (P/B)7.81
Price to Sales (P/S)12.29
P/FCF Ratio238.56
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.90
Enterprise Value/Revenue10.04
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit14.26
Enterprise Value/Ebitda86.26
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$123.33Price Target Upside60.17% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)0.84
Revenue Forecast (FY)$454.29M
BillionToOne, Inc. Class A Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
BillionToOne, Inc., a precision diagnostics company, quantifies biology to create molecular diagnostics. The company provides molecular counting platform, which is designed to detect and measure DNA molecules at the single-count level to help enha...
How the Company Makes Money
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BillionToOne, Inc. Class A Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Dec 15, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a strongly positive operational and financial performance: very high revenue and volume growth (84% and 44% YoY), expanded ASPs and gross margins (73%), attainment of GAAP profitability and positive cash, major payer wins (Anthem, United), and notable product innovation (Unity Confirm, MRD roadmap). Primary risks noted were margin pressure as oncology scales without Medicare coverage, timing/recognition volatility from true-ups and AR, and multi-year clinical and reimbursement timelines for certain products. On balance, the positives (robust growth, profitability, payer access, new product launches, upgraded guidance, strong cash position) materially outweigh the operational and timing risks cited.Positive Updates
Revenue Growth and Profitability
Total revenue of $108.4M in Q1 2026, up 84% year-over-year; operating income $17.8M; GAAP operating margin 16%; adjusted EBITDA margin 24%; net income $18.0M ($0.34 per diluted share) vs a net loss in Q1 2025.
Negative Updates
Oncology Margin Pressure and COGS Risk
Oncology currently has lower margins due to subscale volumes and lack of Medicare coverage for Response; management notes overall COGS per test could increase over time as oncology becomes a larger share of volume.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Growth and Profitability
Total revenue of $108.4M in Q1 2026, up 84% year-over-year; operating income $17.8M; GAAP operating margin 16%; adjusted EBITDA margin 24%; net income $18.0M ($0.34 per diluted share) vs a net loss in Q1 2025.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management raised 2026 revenue guidance to $445–$465 million (up $20M at both ends from prior $425–$445M), implying 48%–52% growth versus 2025, and said the raise is driven primarily by ASP lifts (not higher volume) while they plan to maintain profitability near current levels despite continued investments; they also reiterated expectations for full‑year gross margin of 70%+ and noted seasonality (sequential growth in Q2–Q3, a slower Q4). The raise is anchored in Q1 results of $108.4M revenue (84% YoY), ~188k tests (44% YoY), ASP $571 (+28% YoY, +$10 sequential), COGS per test $153 (‑5% sequential, +1% YoY), gross margin 73% (+9 ppt YoY, +2 ppt sequential), GAAP operating margin 16%, adjusted EBITDA margin 24%, true‑up revenue of $9.2M (Ross noted true‑ups are not embedded in the guide), $537M cash on hand, and a $434M annualized revenue run rate; management expects AR related to new contracts to normalize by Q3 and is targeting Medicare coverage for NorthStar Response by year‑end.BillionToOne, Inc. Class A Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
68
Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
57
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||
| Total Revenue | 354.54M | 305.11M | 152.58M | 71.73M |
| Gross Profit | 249.58M | 208.46M | 80.92M | 17.31M |
| EBITDA | 41.26M | 16.02M | -27.47M | -72.94M |
| Net Income | 25.21M | 7.45M | -41.57M | -82.68M |
Balance Sheet | ||||
| Total Assets | 700.73M | 632.65M | 302.06M | 191.68M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 537.45M | 495.98M | 191.48M | 97.27M |
| Total Debt | 144.19M | 108.89M | 109.38M | 146.35M |
| Total Liabilities | 195.11M | 152.55M | 134.31M | 161.20M |
| Stockholders Equity | 505.62M | 480.11M | 167.75M | 30.47M |
Cash Flow | ||||
| Free Cash Flow | 28.09M | 15.71M | -46.78M | -59.85M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 36.22M | 24.59M | -41.38M | -53.67M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -8.17M | -8.92M | -5.43M | 82.84M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 320.45M | 288.82M | 141.02M | 13.40M |
BillionToOne, Inc. Class A Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $3.96B | 50.44 | 7.55% | ― | 98.49% | ― | |
63 Neutral | $29.17B | -83.14 | -15.13% | ― | 36.59% | -11.94% | |
59 Neutral | $2.91B | -5.63 | -16.42% | ― | 19.44% | 82.94% | |
56 Neutral | $493.60M | -4.94 | -6.70% | ― | 9.54% | -79.16% | |
56 Neutral | $15.65B | -27.05 | 184.27% | ― | 39.56% | -0.63% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
49 Neutral | $369.29M | -3.09 | -109.09% | ― | -0.28% | -286.80% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
BLLN
BillionToOne, Inc. Class A
85.92
-23.02
-21.13%
MYGN
Myriad Genetics
3.82
-0.09
-2.30%
NTRA
Natera
203.19
49.87
32.53%
FLGT
Fulgent Genetics
17.11
-3.20
-15.76%
GH
Guardant Health
118.95
80.95
213.03%
GRAL
GRAIL Inc
67.19
27.01
67.22%
BillionToOne, Inc. Class A Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesFinancial Disclosures
BillionToOne Raises 2026 Guidance, Aligns Incentive Plan
Positive
Mar 4, 2026
In 2025, BillionToOne doubled total revenue to $305.1 million and turned to profitability, driven by strong growth in prenatal and oncology testing volumes and higher average selling prices. On March 4, 2026, the company reported fourth-quarter re...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.