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Allbirds (BIRD)
NASDAQ:BIRD
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Allbirds
(NASDAQ:BIRD)
44Neutral
Positive Factors
Brand Revitalization
BIRD is focused on injecting newness and freshness into the brand by incorporating texture, color, and new materials, all while leaning into the 'codes' that make Allbirds shoes easily identifiable.
Business Model Shift
The shift to distributor models for international businesses, excluding the U.K., provides upfront cash and a positive contribution margin.
Cost Efficiency
Cost savings from closing 20 stores and reducing SG&A expenses by $24 million create a more positive working capital dynamic for future investments.
Negative Factors
Profitability Concerns
There is a risk that profitability and free cash flow might fail to materialize, affecting the market cap relative to the cash balance.
Sales and Profitability Outlook
The path to improvement is still far off, with management messaging a return to topline growth sometime in the second half of 2025.
Top Line Growth Challenges
The business has seen limited improvement in its top line throughout 2024, presenting a risk for future growth.
Allbirds (BIRD) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$42.29M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)57.91K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.80
Revenue Growth-25.31%
EPS Growth40.84%
CountryUS
Employees542
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength63
IndustryApparel - Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-11.87
Shares Outstanding5,460,101
10 Day Avg. Volume61,513
30 Day Avg. Volume57,906
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)0.22
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)-1.00
P/FCF Ratio0.00
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$6.00Price Target Upside13.64% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering2
Allbirds Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionAllbirds, Inc. manufactures and sells footwear and apparel products for men and women. It offers shoes, such as running shoes, everyday sneakers, high-tops, slip-ons, boat shoes, flats, weather repellent shoes, and sandals. The company's apparel products include activewear, tops, bottoms, dresses, sweaters, underwear, and socks. It sells its products through its retail stores in the United States and internationally, as well as online. Allbirds, Inc. was formerly known as Bozz, Inc. Allbirds, Inc. was incorporated in 2015 and is based in San Francisco, California.
How the Company Makes MoneyAllbirds generates revenue primarily through the direct-to-consumer sale of its footwear and apparel products via its e-commerce platform and retail stores. The company's business model is centered around selling high-quality, sustainable products at a premium price point, leveraging its brand image as an environmentally-friendly option. Key revenue streams include online sales from its website and physical sales from brick-and-mortar locations. Additionally, Allbirds may engage in strategic partnerships and collaborations to expand its market reach and enhance brand visibility, contributing to its earnings.
Allbirds Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Allbirds is experiencing financial difficulties characterized by declining revenues, persistent losses, and increasing leverage. The company's ability to generate cash is weak, posing ongoing liquidity and operational challenges. Despite a strong gross profit margin, the negative net profit margins and cash flow issues require strategic interventions to stabilize the financial health.Income Statement
Allbirds has faced declining revenues, with a revenue decrease from $297.8 million in 2022 to $189.8 million in 2024. The company has consistently reported negative net income, with a worsening net profit margin, currently at -49.2% for 2024. Despite a high gross profit margin of 42.7% in 2024, the EBIT and EBITDA margins are negative, indicating challenges in efficiently managing operating expenses.45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet shows a concerning trend with decreasing stockholders' equity, now at $101.7 million in 2024, down from $316.8 million in 2022. The debt-to-equity ratio has increased, currently standing at 0.53. This indicates rising leverage, though the company has managed to keep a positive equity ratio of 53.8%, reflecting some stability in asset management.50
Neutral
Cash Flow
Allbirds' cash flow statement reveals significant challenges, with a negative free cash flow of $-67.96 million in 2024. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, suggesting inefficiencies in operational cash generation. The free cash flow has been consistently negative, indicating ongoing liquidity concerns.40
Negative
| Breakdown | ||||
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 189.76M | 254.06M | 297.77M | 277.47M | 219.30M | Gross Profit |
| 81.06M | 104.23M | 129.63M | 146.66M | 112.74M | EBIT |
| -97.55M | -153.00M | -96.22M | -32.88M | -29.22M | EBITDA |
| -81.56M | -97.85M | -83.93M | -34.36M | -22.59M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| -93.32M | -152.46M | -101.35M | -45.37M | -25.86M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 66.73M | 130.03M | 167.14M | 288.58M | 126.55M | Total Assets |
| 188.88M | 312.70M | 462.36M | 488.43M | 244.04M | Total Debt |
| 53.67M | 93.95M | 105.85M | 0.00 | 204.05M | Net Debt |
| -13.06M | -36.08M | -61.29M | -288.58M | 77.50M | Total Liabilities |
| 87.19M | 127.38M | 145.59M | 91.42M | 269.55M | Stockholders Equity |
| 101.69M | 185.33M | 316.77M | 397.00M | -25.51M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| -67.95M | -41.09M | -121.95M | -75.03M | -48.93M | Operating Cash Flow |
| -63.86M | -30.22M | -90.58M | -50.85M | -34.58M | Investing Cash Flow |
| 2.12M | -7.71M | -32.29M | -25.64M | -16.28M | Financing Cash Flow |
| 287.00K | 640.00K | 3.58M | 238.15M | 102.19M |
Allbirds Technical Analysis
Negative
5.28
Price Trends
6.33
Negative
6.91
Negative
9.43
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.06
Negative
57.49
Neutral
92.76
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BIRD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 5.28 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.80, below the 50-day MA of 6.33, and below the 200-day MA of 9.43, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.06 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.49 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 92.76 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BIRD.
Allbirds Risk Analysis
Allbirds disclosed 77 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Allbirds reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Allbirds Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (59)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $5.64B | 6.30 | 57.76% | ― | 3.53% | 24.55% | |
76 Outperform | $16.09B | 17.21 | 39.80% | ― | 19.40% | 32.70% | |
73 Outperform | $7.50B | 12.09 | 15.42% | ― | 12.11% | 19.16% | |
63 Neutral | $84.50B | 19.05 | 31.93% | 2.69% | -7.11% | -12.12% | |
59 Neutral | $11.20B | 10.09 | -1.41% | 3.96% | 1.31% | -16.95% | |
55 Neutral | $1.20B | 101.06 | 0.62% | ― | -2.20% | ― | |
44 Neutral | $42.29M | ― | -65.03% | ― | -25.31% | 40.84% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
BIRD
Allbirds
5.28
-7.52
-58.75%
CROX
Crocs
100.65
-32.08
-24.17%
DECK
Deckers Outdoor
106.02
-42.12
-28.43%
FL
Foot Locker
12.41
-11.43
-47.94%
NKE
Nike
55.61
-32.74
-37.06%
SKX
Skechers USA
48.21
-10.04
-17.24%
Allbirds Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date: Mar 11, 2025 | % Change Since: -14.29% | Next Earnings Date: May 13, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted significant achievements such as cost reduction, successful international transitions, and an effective marketing campaign. However, there are notable challenges, including expected revenue decline in Q1 2025 and pressures on gross margin. The company is optimistic about returning to growth in the latter part of 2025.Highlights
Reduced SG&A and Store Closures
Streamlined cost structure by reducing SG&A by over $20 million in 2024 and closing 15 US stores, with an additional 5 closures after year-end.
Successful International Transition
Transitioned to a distributor model in targeted international regions, setting up the international business for profitable, scalable growth.
Marketing Campaign Success
Launched a new brand campaign 'Cards on the Table' featuring Stanley Tucci, with positive initial results, achieving over 5 million organic social reach and a combined potential reach of over 1 billion through media coverage.
Gross Margin Improvements
Year-over-year improvement expected in gross margins, anticipated to be in the mid-40% range for the full year 2025.
Strong Financial Position
Ended the year with cash and cash equivalents of $67 million and no outstanding borrowings.
Lowlights
Q1 2025 Sales Decline
Net revenue guidance for Q1 2025 indicates a decline of 22% at the midpoint compared to the prior year, due to structural changes and a challenging macroeconomic environment.
Pressure on Gross Margin in Q1
Notable pressure on Q1 2025 gross margin due to channel mix and product sunsetting, despite expected improvement throughout the year.
Impact of Store Closures and Transitions
Estimated $18 million to $23 million negative impact on net revenue in 2025 due to international transitions and store closures.
Company Guidance
During the call, Allbirds provided guidance for 2025, projecting net revenue between $175 million and $195 million, with an anticipated return to top-line growth in Q4 driven by product and marketing initiatives. The company expects a gross margin in the mid-40% range for the year, with Q1 facing notable pressure due to channel mix and product transitions. They forecast an adjusted EBITDA loss of $65 million to $55 million, reflecting strategic investments in marketing and new product assortments. Q1 guidance includes net revenue between $28 million and $33 million, with a decline of 22% at the midpoint compared to the previous year, and an adjusted EBITDA loss of $28 million to $25 million. The guidance accounts for approximately $18 million to $23 million in negative impacts from distributor transitions and store closures, with US net revenue expected between $145 million and $160 million, and international net revenue between $30 million and $35 million.Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.