BayCom (BCML) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $314.41M
• Dividend Yield: 2.91%
• Average Volume (3M): 17.94K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 13.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.68
• Revenue Growth: 1.25%
• EPS Growth: -0.07%
• Country: US
• Employees: 320
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 0.63
• Shares Outstanding: 10,897,763
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 18,892
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 17,937
• PEG Ratio: 3.51
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.95
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.26
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.98
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.18
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.19
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 8.58
• 1Y Price Target: $34.00
• Price Target Upside: 17.24% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.67
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $107.55M

• Rating: 67 Neutral
• Price Target: $31.00 ▲(6.90% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 03/17/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 03/17/26

The score is anchored by generally solid financial fundamentals (notably a stronger, less-levered balance sheet) but is held back by the sharp deterioration shown in the latest cash flow data and some margin compression. Valuation is a clear positive due to the low P/E and healthy dividend yield, while technical signals point to a neutral-to-soft momentum backdrop rather than a strong uptrend.

Positive Factors

Strong capital and lower leverage

BayCom's marked reduction in leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.07 in 2025) and larger equity base provide a durable capital buffer. This materially reduces solvency and refinancing risk, supporting lending capacity and resilience through economic cycles and regulatory stress tests.

Sustained revenue growth and NII pickup

Consistent revenue growth and a step-up in 2025—alongside management notes of higher net interest income—indicate a durable core earnings engine. For a regional bank, rising NII tied to lending activity supports long-term cash generation and franchise value.

Returning capital via regular dividend

A continued quarterly cash dividend shows management's commitment to capital returns and signals confidence in underlying earnings and capital planning. For income-focused shareholders, a stable dividend policy reflects predictable cash allocation and financial discipline.

Negative Factors

Severe cash-flow deterioration

Reported operating and free cash flow collapsing to zero in 2025 (with FCF growth -100%) is a durable red flag. Weak cash conversion undermines internal funding for lending, dividends, and reserves, raising questions about earnings quality or a structural reporting shift.

Margin compression

A multi-year decline in net margin from ~20.6% to ~16.9% signals sustained pressure on profitability. If margin compression persists, it will erode return on assets and limit the bank's ability to absorb credit losses or fund growth without increasing leverage or cutting costs.

Moderate returns on equity

ROE around 7.1% indicates only modest returns relative to capital, constraining long-term internal capital generation. Lower ROE reduces capacity to expand lending or increase dividends without external capital, slowing growth and limiting strategic flexibility over time.

BayCom Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

BayCom Corp operates as the bank holding company for United Business Bank that provides various financial services to small and mid-sized businesses, service professionals, and individuals. The company offers demand, savings, money market, and time deposit accounts. It also provides commercial and multifamily real estate loans, including owner-occupied and investor real estate loans; commercial and industrial loans, such as equipment loans and working capital lines of credit; small business administration loans; construction and land loans; agriculture-related loans; and consumer loans comprising installment loans, unsecured and secured personal lines of credit, and overdraft protection. In addition, the company offers online and mobile banking, automated teller machine, remote deposit capture, night depository, courier, direct deposit, treasury management, wire transfer, automated clearing house services, debit cards, cashier's and travelers checks, letters of credit, lockbox, positive pay, reverse positive pay, and account reconciliation services, as well as zero balance accounts and sweep accounts, including loan sweep. As of December 31, 2021, it operated through a network of 33 full-service banking branches in Northern and Southern California; Denver, Colorado; Custer, Delta, and Grand counties, Colorado; and Seattle, Washington and Central New Mexico. The company was formerly known as Bay Commercial Bank and changed its name to BayCom Corp in January 2017. BayCom Corp was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Walnut Creek, California.

How the Company Makes Money

BayCom primarily makes money through its banking subsidiary by (1) earning net interest income and (2) generating noninterest income, while managing operating costs and credit losses. 1) Net interest income (core revenue driver): The bank earns interest and fees on loans and other interest-earning assets (such as securities) and pays interest on funding sources (primarily customer deposits and, when used, borrowings). The spread between interest earned and interest paid—after considering the size and mix of loans, securities, and deposits—drives net interest income. Key factors influencing this stream include loan growth and mix (e.g., commercial real estate, commercial and industrial, or consumer lending), pricing and credit terms on new/renewed loans, deposit mix (noninterest-bearing vs. interest-bearing), competitive deposit pricing, and changes in market interest rates that affect asset yields and funding costs. 2) Noninterest income (fee-based revenue): The bank also earns revenue from fees for banking services. Common contributors include deposit service charges and account-related fees, fees associated with lending activities (such as certain loan fees), and other service-related income from providing banking products to consumers and businesses. If any specific noninterest income line items beyond general categories are not publicly available in the provided context, they are not enumerated here. 3) Credit performance and provisioning impacts profitability: While not a revenue line, loan losses and provisioning for credit losses materially affect earnings. Strong underwriting, collateral management, and portfolio diversification can reduce charge-offs and provisioning needs, supporting net income. 4) Operating leverage and scale: As a branch-based bank, profitability is influenced by operating expenses (personnel, occupancy, technology, regulatory compliance) relative to revenue. Efficiency improvements and scale can enhance margins. Significant partnerships or specific earnings-driving agreements: null

BayCom Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong balance-sheet improvement with much lower leverage and growing equity supports stability, and revenue growth has been solid. However, profitability has cooled from the 2022–2023 peak and the latest reported cash flow signal is a major concern (operating and free cash flow shown as 0 in 2025), which materially drags overall financial quality.

Income Statement

Revenue has grown solidly over time (notably strong growth in 2022–2023 and a sharp step-up in 2025), but profitability has cooled from the 2022–2023 peak. Net margin declined from ~20.6% (2023) to ~16.9% (2025) and operating profitability also compressed versus prior highs, suggesting some pressure from the rate/expense environment. Overall: good growth profile with still-healthy margins, but clearly less profitable than the recent peak.

Balance Sheet

Leverage improved meaningfully: debt-to-equity fell to ~0.07 in 2025 from ~0.27–0.35 in 2020–2024, indicating a more conservative balance sheet. Equity has also grown versus earlier years, supporting stability. Return on equity remains steady but moderate (~7.1% in 2025 vs ~8.8% in 2023), implying the bank is safer but not generating outsized returns on capital.

Cash Flow

Cash generation quality is a key concern based on the latest year shown: 2025 reports operating cash flow and free cash flow at 0, with free cash flow growth at -100% and cash flow to earnings at 0. Prior years (2021–2024) showed positive operating and free cash flow with strong conversion versus net income, so the 2025 collapse looks like a sharp deterioration (or potentially a reporting/classification anomaly). Regardless, the most recent cash flow signal is weak and raises reliability questions.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	141.83M	137.71M	132.91M	111.25M	92.79M
Gross Profit	97.08M	95.87M	102.43M	96.45M	83.52M
EBITDA	36.08M	35.39M	41.12M	36.46M	32.34M
Net Income	23.93M	23.61M	27.43M	23.73M	20.69M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.59B	2.66B	2.55B	2.51B	2.35B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	206.49M	25.38M	25.48M	183.22M	180.42M
Total Debt	22.39M	86.76M	87.20M	89.33M	84.60M
Total Liabilities	2.26B	2.34B	2.24B	2.20B	2.09B
Stockholders Equity	338.55M	324.37M	312.87M	317.15M	262.61M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	28.66M	28.68M	38.77M	9.12M
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	30.36M	30.80M	39.61M	10.43M
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-62.19M	80.40M	53.94M	-60.36M
Financing Cash Flow	-98.56M	88.32M	19.52M	-296.42M	130.29M

BayCom Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 29.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BCML, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 29 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 29.29, below the 50-day MA of 29.19, and above the 200-day MA of 28.21, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.21 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.91 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 43.61 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BCML.

BayCom Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
BCML	67 Neutral	$314.41M	13.39	7.07%	2.91%	1.25%	-0.07%
CZNC	67 Neutral	$392.41M	13.73	7.79%	5.43%	5.76%	21.85%
RBB	66 Neutral	$356.86M	8.64	6.19%	2.98%	-0.70%	-19.65%
CBAN	62 Neutral	$412.32M	11.22	8.98%	2.55%	6.92%	26.93%
MVBF	62 Neutral	$322.02M	12.25	8.46%	2.61%	-14.00%	73.85%
PBFS	60 Neutral	$342.80M	21.68	6.48%	―	28.90%	31.84%

BayCom Corporate Events

BayCom Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend, Signals Confidence

On February 19, 2026, BayCom Corp announced that its board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.30 per share on its common stock, payable on April 9, 2026 to shareholders of record as of March 12, 2026. The move underscores the Walnut Creek-based business bank’s continuing capital-return policy and provides income visibility for investors, signaling management’s confidence in the company’s financial position and its regional business banking franchise.

BayCom’s dividend declaration highlights the company’s ongoing effort to balance growth with shareholder returns in a competitive West Coast and Rocky Mountain banking market. For stakeholders, the scheduled payout date and record date offer clear timelines for dividend eligibility, reinforcing BayCom’s appeal to income-focused investors in the regional banking sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (BCML) stock is a Buy with a $34.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BayCom stock, see the BCML Stock Forecast page.