Barings BDC (BBDC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $951.69M
• Dividend Yield: 13.52%
• Average Volume (3M): 583.90K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 9.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.55
• Revenue Growth: -10.40%
• EPS Growth: -11.42%
• Country: US
• Employees: 2
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Financial - Credit Services
• EPS (TTM): 0.32
• Shares Outstanding: 105,158,936
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 408,735
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 583,903
• PEG Ratio: -0.69
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.85
• Price to Sales (P/S): 4.84
• P/FCF Ratio: 8.58
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.64
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 16.62
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 28.69
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 25.86
• 1Y Price Target: $9.81
• Price Target Upside: 7.57% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 63 Neutral
• Price Target: $10.00 ▲(9.65% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by mixed financial performance—strong profitability but weak/volatile cash flow and a notable revenue contraction, with leverage adding risk. Valuation is supportive due to a low P/E and very high dividend yield, while technicals and the latest earnings-call commentary point to steady momentum and stable credit quality despite modest NAV pressure.

Positive Factors

Financial Flexibility

The amendment of the credit agreement enhances Barings BDC's financial flexibility, allowing for greater capacity to support growth and strategic initiatives.

Leadership Transition

The leadership transition, with an experienced successor, ensures continuity and could drive strategic growth, maintaining strong performance and shareholder value.

Portfolio Origination

High portfolio origination indicates effective investment strategy and control over asset quality, supporting long-term risk-adjusted returns.

Negative Factors

Net Asset Value Decline

The decline in net asset value reflects potential challenges in asset management and could impact investor confidence if not addressed.

Market Volatility Exposure

Exposure to market volatility, affecting interest income, could pressure revenue stability and profitability in fluctuating rate environments.

Limited Share Buybacks

Limited share buybacks may signal constraints in capital allocation strategy, potentially affecting shareholder returns and market perception.

Barings BDC Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Barings BDC, Inc. (NYSE: BBDC) is a publicly traded, externally managed investment company that has elected to be treated as a business development company under the Investment Company Act of 1940. It seeks to invest primarily in senior secured loans, first lien debt, unitranche, second lien debt, subordinated debt, equity co-investments and senior secured private debt investments in private middle-market companies that operate across a wide range of industries. It specializes in mezzanine, leveraged buyouts, management buyouts, ESOPs, change of control transactions, acquisition financings, growth financing, and recapitalizations in lower middle market, mature, and later stage companies. It invests in manufacturing and distribution; business services and technology; transportation and logistics; consumer product and services. It invests in United States. It invests in companies with EBITDA of $10 million to $75 million, typically in private equity sponsor backed. Barings BDC, Inc. Barings BDC, Inc. was incorporated on October 10, 2006 and is based in Charlotte, North Carolina with an additional office in Raleigh, North Carolina.

How the Company Makes Money

Barings BDC generates revenue primarily through interest income from its debt investments and dividends from its equity investments. The company typically earns a spread between the interest it charges on its loans and the cost of its borrowing, which contributes significantly to its net investment income. Additionally, BBDC may receive fees for arranging and structuring investments, including upfront fees, commitment fees, and exit fees when investments are repaid. The company's revenue model is supported by its ability to identify and invest in promising middle-market companies, which can lead to capital appreciation and income generation. Strategic partnerships with financial institutions and investment firms also enhance its ability to source deals and diversify its investment portfolio, further contributing to its earnings.

Barings BDC Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong reported profitability (TTM net margin ~52%), but financial quality is held back by a material TTM revenue decline (~24%) and very weak/volatile cash generation (TTM operating cash flow near breakeven and sharply lower free cash flow). Leverage is notable (~$1.62B debt vs. $1.17B equity), which reduces flexibility if credit conditions worsen.

Income Statement

Profitability is strong on the latest TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), with net income of $78.0M on $150.9M of revenue and a healthy net margin (~52%). However, the top line has weakened materially, with revenue down ~24% in the latest TTM versus the prior period, and the longer-term revenue trend shows volatility (strong growth in 2021–2023 followed by contraction). Overall, earnings power looks solid, but growth momentum is a key concern.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is asset-backed ($2.82B of assets) with meaningful equity ($1.17B), but leverage is notable for the profile: total debt is ~$1.62B in the latest TTM. Annual results show debt-to-equity generally around ~1.2x (and higher in 2021), which limits flexibility if credit conditions deteriorate. Return on equity is positive but has moderated recently (about 6.6% in the latest TTM versus ~9–11% in 2023–2024), pointing to some pressure on underlying returns.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is the weakest area. Operating cash flow in the latest TTM is near breakeven at ~$0.5M and free cash flow fell sharply (~85% decline), a notable step-down from 2024 (operating cash flow ~$117.8M). The historical pattern is also uneven, including very large negative operating cash flow in 2020–2021, which highlights volatility in cash realization even when reported earnings are strong.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	150.88M	209.10M	289.20M	219.13M	119.80M	36.97M
Gross Profit	87.41M	123.59M	289.20M	219.13M	86.79M	17.16M
EBITDA	96.99M	113.75M	214.52M	173.13M	77.69M	8.23M
Net Income	77.96M	110.29M	128.00M	4.68M	77.69M	8.18M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.82B	2.70B	2.68B	2.71B	2.16B	1.68B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	70.31M	77.85M	70.53M	139.41M	84.25M	89.00M
Total Debt	1.62B	1.45B	1.44B	1.45B	1.37B	944.00M
Total Liabilities	1.66B	1.51B	1.48B	1.52B	1.42B	959.23M
Stockholders Equity	1.17B	1.19B	1.20B	1.19B	741.93M	717.80M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	534.00K	117.85M	76.94M	86.27M	-396.55M	-218.13M
Operating Cash Flow	534.00K	117.85M	76.94M	86.27M	-396.55M	-218.13M
Investing Cash Flow	-89.68M	4.31M	-21.14M	-120.88M	-451.63B	-262.35B
Financing Cash Flow	106.35M	-101.35M	-145.83M	-31.11M	388.32M	288.63M

Barings BDC Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 9.12
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BBDC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 9.12 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.16, above the 50-day MA of 8.94, and above the 200-day MA of 8.68, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.05 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.12 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 28.13 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BBDC.

Barings BDC Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
EZPW	75 Outperform	$1.28B	15.44	11.98%	―	9.70%	26.63%
ATLC	73 Outperform	$766.46M	8.98	21.01%	―	25.29%	26.70%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
WRLD	67 Neutral	$582.25M	15.30	14.57%	―	2.31%	-27.81%
BBDC	63 Neutral	$951.69M	9.39	8.60%	13.52%	-10.40%	-11.42%
OCSL	57 Neutral	$1.09B	31.54	2.30%	13.37%	22.17%	-46.78%
GDOT	56 Neutral	$679.36M	-14.61	-5.09%	―	23.12%	19.37%

Barings BDC Corporate Events

Barings BDC Amends Credit Agreement with ING Capital

On November 13, 2025, Barings BDC, Inc. amended its Senior Secured Credit Agreement with ING Capital LLC, extending the revolving period and maturity date by one year each and introducing a new €85,000,000 term loan facility. This amendment potentially enhances BBDC’s financial flexibility and capacity for growth, impacting its operational strategy and stakeholder interests positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (BBDC) stock is a Buy with a $9.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Barings BDC stock, see the BBDC Stock Forecast page.

Barings BDC Reports Strong Q3 2025 Financial Results

On November 6, 2025, Barings BDC, Inc. reported its financial results for the third quarter of 2025, highlighting a net investment income of $33.6 million, or $0.32 per share, which covered both regular and special dividends. The company made significant investments and managed its portfolio with a disciplined approach, resulting in a net increase in net assets from operations of $23.6 million. Despite a decrease in net asset value per share from $11.18 to $11.10, the company maintained strong credit outcomes and demonstrated confidence in delivering long-term value for shareholders. During the quarter, Barings BDC deployed nearly $150 million across new and existing portfolio companies, while also managing repayments and sales, which included a notable restructuring that led to a net realized loss of $4.8 million.

The most recent analyst rating on (BBDC) stock is a Buy with a $10.75 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Barings BDC stock, see the BBDC Stock Forecast page.

Barings BDC Announces CEO Resignation and Successor

On November 6, 2025, Barings BDC announced the resignation of Eric Lloyd as CEO, effective December 31, 2025, with Thomas Q. McDonnell appointed as his successor starting January 1, 2026. McDonnell, who brings over 30 years of experience in global finance and investment management, previously held significant roles at Barings and other financial institutions. Lloyd will continue as Executive Chairman of the Board and President of Barings LLC, ensuring continuity in leadership and strategic initiatives. The transition is expected to maintain Barings BDC’s strong performance and shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (BBDC) stock is a Buy with a $10.75 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Barings BDC stock, see the BBDC Stock Forecast page.