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Barings BDC
(NYSE:BBDC)
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Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:
$10.50
▲(27.58% Upside)
Action:Upgraded
Date:08/07/26
The score is driven primarily by strong operating profitability and improving TTM revenue momentum, supported by a positive trend in technicals (price above major moving averages) and attractive valuation/income characteristics (low P/E and high dividend yield). The main constraints are the elevated leverage typical of a BDC, historical variability in earnings/cash flows, and earnings-call flagged risks including modest NAV pressure and the upcoming $350M refinancing need.
Positive Factors
Dividend coverage by net investment income
Quarterly NII exceeded the declared dividend, signalling that core investment income currently covers distributions. Durable earnings coverage reduces reliance on capital actions to fund payouts and supports a stable distribution policy over coming quarters if portfolio yields and credit performance remain steady.
Negative Factors
Large impending unsecured maturity / refinancing risk
A sizeable unsecured note maturing within months creates structural refinancing risk for a levered BDC. If market funding conditions tighten or spreads widen, refinancing could raise funding costs or require balance‑sheet adjustments, pressuring net interest spreads and liquidity flexibility over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Dividend coverage by net investment income
Quarterly NII exceeded the declared dividend, signalling that core investment income currently covers distributions. Durable earnings coverage reduces reliance on capital actions to fund payouts and supports a stable distribution policy over coming quarters if portfolio yields and credit performance remain steady.
Read all positive factors
Barings BDC (BBDC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$987.39M
Dividend Yield12.24%
Average Volume (3M)634.27K
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.2
Beta (1Y)0.70
Revenue Growth11.07%
EPS Growth-12.44%
CountryUS
Employees2
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryAsset Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.83
Shares Outstanding104,706,890
10 Day Avg. Volume528,876
30 Day Avg. Volume634,269
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.41
Price to Book (P/B)0.83
Price to Sales (P/S)3.88
P/FCF Ratio6.01
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$9.92Price Target Upside20.49% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)0.99
Revenue Forecast (FY)$248.88M
Barings BDC Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Barings BDC, Inc. (NYSE: BBDC) functions as a publicly traded, externally managed Business Development Company (BDC), operating under the regulatory framework of the Investment Company Act of 1940. Its investment strategy primarily involves provid...
How the Company Makes Money
BBDC makes money primarily by earning investment income on its portfolio of debt and equity investments. The core revenue stream is interest income from loans it holds—most notably senior secured loans made to or purchased from middle-market borro...
Barings BDC Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented more positive operational and financial developments than negative ones: earnings covered the dividend, portfolio yield and size increased, net originations were positive, credit metrics were strong with low nonaccruals, and the termination of the legacy Sierra CSA materially simplified the balance sheet while freeing redeployable capital. Offsetting items included a modest NAV decline (~0.73%), net realized losses from restructurings (largely offset by prior marks), a $67 million settlement cash outflow tied to the CSA termination, a concentrated subset of stressed credits (~6% rated 4–5) requiring continued workout effort, and an upcoming $350 million debt maturity in November 2026 that will need refinancing. Overall, the positives (earnings coverage, balance sheet simplification, low nonaccruals, constructive origination environment and liquidity) outweigh the limited negatives, implying a favorable posture heading into the next quarter.Positive Updates
Net Investment Income Exceeded Dividend
Generated net investment income of $0.28 per share for the quarter, exceeding the quarterly dividend of $0.26 per share by $0.02 (approximately +7.7%), demonstrating earnings coverage of the dividend.
Negative Updates
Modest NAV Decline
Net asset value per share decreased to $10.94 from $11.02 sequentially, a decline of approximately -0.73%, driven primarily by net unrealized depreciation on select investments.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Net Investment Income Exceeded Dividend
Generated net investment income of $0.28 per share for the quarter, exceeding the quarterly dividend of $0.26 per share by $0.02 (approximately +7.7%), demonstrating earnings coverage of the dividend.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company reiterated tangible near‑term guidance that the Board declared a Q3 dividend of $0.26 per share (unchanged), noting quarterly net investment income of $0.28 per share and undistributed taxable spillover income of approximately $0.84 per share to support distributions; management will continue to evaluate dividend levels versus portfolio earnings, base rate expectations and market conditions. Balance‑sheet guidance highlighted net leverage of 1.18x (comfortably inside the 0.9x–1.25x target range), roughly 80% of debt unsecured, substantial liquidity and active plans to address the $350 million unsecured notes maturing in November 2026. Deployment and portfolio metrics they expect to manage prudently include a $2.46 billion fair‑value investment portfolio, net originations of about $95 million in 2Q (originations $262M, repayments/sales $167M), a weighted average yield on debt of 10.2% (up from 10.1%), total nonaccruals of 0.6% (0.2% not covered by CSA), and the simplification of legacy structures after a ~$67 million Sierra CSA settlement (resulting in a ~$22.6 million realized gain and a new CSA notional of ~ $11M).Barings BDC Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
63
Positive
Cash Flow
71
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 256.66M | 248.84M | 209.10M | 289.20M | 219.13M | 119.80M |
| Gross Profit | 195.50M | 184.14M | 123.59M | 289.20M | 219.13M | 86.79M |
| EBITDA | 153.46M | 190.88M | 113.75M | 214.52M | 295.00M | 77.69M |
| Net Income | 87.11M | 101.92M | 110.29M | 128.00M | 4.68M | 77.69M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.58B | 2.64B | 2.70B | 2.68B | 2.71B | 2.16B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 51.40M | 66.78M | 77.85M | 70.53M | 139.41M | 84.25M |
| Total Debt | 1.39B | 1.43B | 1.45B | 1.44B | 1.45B | 1.37B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.44B | 1.48B | 1.51B | 1.48B | 1.52B | 1.42B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.15B | 1.16B | 1.19B | 1.20B | 1.19B | 741.93M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 304.74M | 160.54M | 117.85M | 76.94M | 86.27M | -396.55M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 304.74M | 160.54M | 117.85M | 76.94M | 86.27M | -396.55M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.31M | 0.00 | -120.88M | -451.63B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -284.11M | -185.10M | -101.35M | -145.83M | -31.11M | 388.32M |
Barings BDC Technical Analysis
Positive
8.23
Price Trends
8.51
Positive
8.45
Positive
8.39
Positive
Market Momentum
0.25
Negative
65.71
Neutral
90.43
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BBDC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 8.23 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.68, below the 50-day MA of 8.51, and below the 200-day MA of 8.39, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.25 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.71 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 90.43 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BBDC.
Barings BDC Risk Analysis
Barings BDC disclosed 83 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Barings BDC reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Barings BDC Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $987.39M | 11.22 | 9.59% | 13.85% | 11.07% | -12.44% | |
74 Outperform | $1.76B | 11.43 | 14.45% | ― | 28.61% | 47.06% | |
69 Neutral | $1.15B | 26.83 | 2.98% | 13.48% | -8.10% | -12.87% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
64 Neutral | $875.23M | 22.62 | 11.00% | ― | 4.36% | -42.48% | |
63 Neutral | $1.47B | 10.69 | 23.09% | ― | 83.72% | 35.89% | |
58 Neutral | $769.87M | -28.38 | -2.82% | ― | 17.73% | -9.69% |
* Financial Sector Average
BBDC
Barings BDC
9.31
0.88
10.41%
EZPW
EZCORP
29.49
13.42
83.51%
OCSL
Oaktree Specialty Lending
12.98
1.07
8.97%
GDOT
Green Dot
13.53
0.25
1.88%
WRLD
World Acceptance
194.75
23.99
14.05%
ATLC
Atlanticus Holdings
102.58
41.23
67.20%
Barings BDC Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Barings BDC Reports Strong Q2 Results, Increases Dividend
Positive
Aug 5, 2026
On August 5, 2026, Barings BDC reported second quarter 2026 results, posting total investment income of $65.2 million and net investment income of $29.0 million, or $0.28 per share, which exceeded its dividend. Net realized gains of $18.8 million ...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Barings BDC Restructures and Terminates Credit Support Agreement
Neutral
Jun 1, 2026
On May 29, 2026, Barings BDC entered into a Termination and Cancellation Agreement with its adviser to end all rights and obligations under a prior Sierra Credit Support Agreement dating from February 25, 2022. In exchange, the adviser agreed to p...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesStock BuybackDividendsFinancial DisclosuresShareholder Meetings
Barings BDC Stockholders Reelect Directors, Affirm Governance Stability
Positive
May 7, 2026
At its May 7, 2026 annual meeting, Barings BDC stockholders elected three Class II directors—Steve Byers, Valerie Lancaster-Beal, and John A. Switzer—to new three-year terms ending at the 2029 meeting, reinforcing continuity in the com...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.