Barings BDC (BBDC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $963.26M
• Dividend Yield: 13.52%
• Average Volume (3M): 605.02K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 9.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.56
• Revenue Growth: -10.40%
• EPS Growth: -11.42%
• Country: US
• Employees: 2
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Financial - Credit Services
• EPS (TTM): 0.27
• Shares Outstanding: 105,158,936
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 786,596
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 605,018
• PEG Ratio: 1.06
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.83
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.88
• P/FCF Ratio: 6.01
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.00
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 4.35
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.69
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 7.58
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: $10.00 ▲(12.11% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (strong margins and improved cash generation) but tempered by recent revenue contraction and leverage-related sensitivity. Valuation is a plus (low P/E and high yield), while the latest earnings call adds caution due to expected NII pressure and potential dividend reduction despite strong credit metrics. Technicals are broadly neutral to mildly positive.

Positive Factors

Improved cash generation

Operating and free cash flow turned consistently positive from 2022–2025, improving earnings quality and internal funding capacity. Durable positive cash conversion supports dividend coverage, selective reinvestment, and buybacks across a 2–6 month horizon, reducing reliance on volatile external funding.

Strong credit metrics and coverage

Very low non-accruals and a 2.4x interest coverage ratio indicate a resilient middle-market portfolio with low near-term default risk. Stable NAV reinforces loss absorption capacity, supporting predictable distributable income and reducing downside risk over the medium term despite market volatility.

High sponsor origination & active capital allocation

A 96% share of Barings-originated assets leverages the manager’s sourcing and underwriting, supporting consistent deal flow and favorable economics. Combined with selective deployment and buybacks, the sponsorship depth and active capital allocation increase resilience and long-term return potential.

Negative Factors

Declining net investment income and revenue

Sustained declines in NII and top-line revenue reflect lower base rates, portfolio sales/repayments and reduced deployment. This structurally compresses distributable income and limits cushion for dividends or reinvestment, creating persistent earnings pressure over the coming months absent a reversal in rates or deployment pace.

Leverage sensitivity and reporting inconsistency

A fairly leveraged balance sheet (net leverage ~1.15x) amplifies exposure to funding cost rises and credit shocks. An inconsistent 2025 debt figure reduces transparency, complicating assessment of liquidity and true funding risk, which matters materially for earnings stability and capital flexibility.

Legacy CSA/JV complexity and realized losses

Outstanding CSA and JV structures prolong operational and valuation complexity, creating episodic realized losses and NAV sensitivity. This legacy complexity can constrain redeployment, prolong earnings volatility, and require management bandwidth, weighing on durable return consistency.

Barings BDC Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Barings BDC, Inc. (NYSE: BBDC) is a publicly traded, externally managed investment company that has elected to be treated as a business development company under the Investment Company Act of 1940. It seeks to invest primarily in senior secured loans, first lien debt, unitranche, second lien debt, subordinated debt, equity co-investments and senior secured private debt investments in private middle-market companies that operate across a wide range of industries. It specializes in mezzanine, leveraged buyouts, management buyouts, ESOPs, change of control transactions, acquisition financings, growth financing, and recapitalizations in lower middle market, mature, and later stage companies. It invests in manufacturing and distribution; business services and technology; transportation and logistics; consumer product and services. It invests in United States. It invests in companies with EBITDA of $10 million to $75 million, typically in private equity sponsor backed. Barings BDC, Inc. Barings BDC, Inc. was incorporated on October 10, 2006 and is based in Charlotte, North Carolina with an additional office in Raleigh, North Carolina.

How the Company Makes Money

Barings BDC generates revenue primarily through interest income from its debt investments and dividends from its equity investments. The company typically earns a spread between the interest it charges on its loans and the cost of its borrowing, which contributes significantly to its net investment income. Additionally, BBDC may receive fees for arranging and structuring investments, including upfront fees, commitment fees, and exit fees when investments are repaid. The company's revenue model is supported by its ability to identify and invest in promising middle-market companies, which can lead to capital appreciation and income generation. Strategic partnerships with financial institutions and investment firms also enhance its ability to source deals and diversify its investment portfolio, further contributing to its earnings.

Barings BDC Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong recent profitability and improved, consistently positive operating/free cash flow support earnings quality. Offsetting this, revenue declined in 2024 and fell more in 2025, and leverage sensitivity (plus an apparent inconsistency in the latest debt figure) reduces confidence in near-term stability.

Income Statement

Profitability is strong in recent years, with net margins improving materially from a weak 2022 (about 2%) to healthy levels in 2023–2025 (roughly mid-40% to low-60%). Net income has remained solid and improved in 2025 versus 2024. The key weakness is the revenue trajectory: after strong growth in 2021–2022 and 2023, revenue declined slightly in 2024 and fell more meaningfully in 2025, which raises questions about near-term earning power if the top line continues to contract.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a fairly leveraged profile typical of credit-oriented financials, with debt-to-equity around ~1.2x in 2022–2024 (and higher in 2021). Equity is substantial and relatively stable, and returns on equity are generally around ~9–11% in 2023–2025, indicating decent capital productivity. The main risk is leverage sensitivity: with meaningful debt relative to equity, performance can be more exposed to credit conditions and funding markets; also, the 2025 debt figure is shown as zero, which appears inconsistent with prior years and reduces comparability for the latest period.

Cash Flow

Cash generation has improved substantially since 2020–2021, when operating cash flow was deeply negative, to consistently positive operating/free cash flow in 2022–2025. Free cash flow tracks net income closely in all periods shown, supporting earnings quality in the recent years. Offsetting this strength, cash flow has been volatile historically and the growth rate is erratic (including an extreme jump in 2025), suggesting variability in underlying cash drivers and less predictability than the recent headline numbers imply.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	221.90M	248.84M	209.10M	289.20M	219.13M	119.80M
Gross Profit	144.38M	184.14M	123.59M	289.20M	219.13M	86.79M
EBITDA	127.44M	121.62M	113.75M	214.52M	173.13M	77.69M
Net Income	101.51M	117.84M	110.29M	128.00M	4.68M	77.69M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.82B	2.64B	2.70B	2.68B	2.71B	2.16B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	70.31M	66.78M	77.85M	70.53M	139.41M	84.25M
Total Debt	1.62B	1.43B	1.45B	1.44B	1.45B	1.37B
Total Liabilities	1.66B	1.48B	1.51B	1.48B	1.52B	1.42B
Stockholders Equity	1.17B	1.16B	1.19B	1.20B	1.19B	741.93M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	534.00K	160.54M	117.85M	76.94M	86.27M	-396.55M
Operating Cash Flow	534.00K	160.54M	117.85M	76.94M	86.27M	-396.55M
Investing Cash Flow	-89.68M	36.83M	4.31M	-21.14M	-120.88M	-451.63B
Financing Cash Flow	106.35M	-185.10M	-101.35M	-145.83M	-31.11M	388.32M

Barings BDC Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 8.92
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BBDC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 8.92 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.07, below the 50-day MA of 9.06, and above the 200-day MA of 8.77, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.02 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.41 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 65.76 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BBDC.

Barings BDC Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
EZPW	74 Outperform	$1.55B	16.32	12.97%	―	9.70%	26.63%
ATLC	73 Outperform	$830.36M	9.72	21.01%	―	25.29%	26.70%
BBDC	69 Neutral	$963.26M	9.50	8.67%	13.52%	-10.40%	-11.42%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
WRLD	60 Neutral	$667.96M	17.15	14.57%	―	2.31%	-27.81%
OCSL	58 Neutral	$1.06B	33.77	2.24%	13.37%	22.17%	-46.78%
GDOT	56 Neutral	$672.14M	―	-5.09%	―	23.12%	19.37%

Barings BDC Corporate Events

Barings BDC Announces Strong Q4 and 2025 Results

On February 19, 2026, Barings BDC reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, posting Q4 net investment income of $28.0 million, or $0.27 per share, and a full-year total of $117.8 million, or $1.12 per share, both exceeding regular dividends. The board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.26 per share as net asset value per share edged down slightly to $11.09, reflecting realized losses offset in part by unrealized gains, excess net investment income over dividends, and accretive share repurchases.

The company’s investment portfolio at fair value stood at $2.40 billion as of December 31, 2025, with a weighted average yield on performing debt investments of 9.5% and a net debt-to-equity ratio of 1.15x, indicating moderate leverage. Management highlighted strong credit quality, including non-accruals of just 0.2% of fair value, as well as active portfolio rotation through new investments, repayments, sales to joint ventures, and modest net unrealized appreciation, underscoring the portfolio’s resilience and the firm’s continued focus on generating attractive long-term returns for shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (BBDC) stock is a Buy with a $10.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Barings BDC stock, see the BBDC Stock Forecast page.