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Aviva (AVVIY)
OTHER OTC:AVVIY
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Aviva
(OTC:AVVIY)
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Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
$19.50
▲(13.31% Upside)
The score is mainly driven by middling fundamentals—strong 2024 revenue growth and improved cash flow, but persistent earnings/cash-flow volatility, low margins, and reduced equity. Technicals are supportive with an uptrend, though momentum is close to stretched. Valuation is mixed: a solid dividend yield helps, but the elevated P/E limits the overall score.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Strong revenue growth indicates robust demand for Aviva's products and services, enhancing its market position and potential for future expansion.
Stable Balance Sheet
A stable balance sheet with a manageable debt-to-equity ratio supports financial resilience and flexibility for strategic investments.
Efficient Cash Conversion
Efficient cash conversion indicates effective management of resources, supporting sustainable operations and potential for reinvestment.
Negative Factors
Declining Profitability Margins
Declining margins may indicate rising costs or inefficiencies, potentially impacting long-term profitability and competitiveness.
Negative Operating Cash Flow
Negative operating cash flow can strain liquidity, affecting the company's ability to fund operations and invest in growth opportunities.
Reduced Return on Equity
A decline in ROE suggests reduced profitability for shareholders, which may affect investor confidence and capital raising capabilities.
Aviva (AVVIY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$26.53B
Dividend Yield5.27%
Average Volume (3M)4.41K
Price to Earnings (P/E)30.3
Beta (1Y)0.40
Revenue Growth-17.44%
EPS Growth-52.47%
CountryUS
Employees29,091
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Diversified
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.79
Shares Outstanding1,528,865,800
10 Day Avg. Volume0
30 Day Avg. Volume4,408
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.53
Price to Book (P/B)1.62
Price to Sales (P/S)0.59
P/FCF Ratio1.63
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.20
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.16
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.24
Enterprise Value/Ebitda3.96
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Aviva Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionAviva plc provides various insurance, retirement, investment, and savings products in the United Kingdom, Ireland, Canada, and internationally. The company offers life insurance, long-term health and accident insurance, savings, pension, and annuity products, as well as pension fund business and lifetime mortgage products. It also provides insurance cover to individuals, small and medium-sized businesses for risks associated with motor vehicles and medical expenses, as well as property and liability, such as employers' and professional indemnity liabilities. In addition, the company provides investment management services for institutional pension fund mandates; and manages various retail investment products, including investment funds, unit trusts, open-ended investment companies, and individual savings accounts for third-party financial institutions, pension funds, public sector organizations, investment professionals, and private investors. It markets its products through a network of insurance brokers, as well as MyAviva platform. The company was formerly known as CGNU plc and changed its name to Aviva plc in July 2002. Aviva plc was founded in 1696 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.
How the Company Makes MoneyAviva generates revenue through multiple key streams, primarily from premiums collected from its insurance policies, which include life, health, and property insurance. The company also earns significant income from its asset management services, where it manages investments for individuals and institutions, charging fees based on the assets under management. Additionally, Aviva benefits from investment income derived from its investment portfolio, which includes equities, bonds, and real estate. Strategic partnerships with financial institutions and distribution channels enhance its market reach, contributing to its overall financial performance. Moreover, Aviva's focus on digital transformation and enhancing customer experience is aimed at increasing customer retention and attracting new clients, which further solidifies its revenue base.
Aviva Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 27, 2025
(Q4-2024)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflects strong growth across multiple segments, including General Insurance and Wealth Management, alongside strategic acquisitions. However, challenges such as lower operating funds generation and adverse weather impacts in Canada are noted. The overall sentiment leans towards a positive outlook with strategic growth initiatives in place.Q4-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Overall Growth
Operating profit was up 20% to nearly £1.8 billion, and underlying own funds generation was up 18% to £1.5 billion. The total dividend per share increased by 7% year-on-year.
General Insurance Growth
U.K. and Ireland General Insurance saw a 16% growth in premiums, with personal lines up 22% and commercial lines up 12%. Canada also experienced an 11% growth in premiums.
Wealth Management Milestone
Aviva hit £50 billion of assets on the adviser platform, extending its number one U.K. wealth position with nearly £200 billion of assets under management.
Protection Sales Surge
Protection sales were up 42%, following the completion of the AIG acquisition, with operating profit in this segment up 26%.
Proposed Acquisition of Direct Line
The acquisition is expected to create a leader in U.K. personal lines, delivering £125 million in cost synergies over and above existing commitments.
Negative Updates
Lower Operating Funds Generation
Total OFG was 4% lower in 2024 due to the prior year's impact of the partnership extension with Diligenta and FNZ.
Canadian Weather Impact
Severe weather in Canada resulted in an operating profit decrease to £288 million, due to four large catastrophe events causing around CAD 8.5 billion in losses.
Challenges in Equity Release Market
The equity release market has contracted further, impacting the new business margin for retirement.
Lower Prior Year Development in Canada
Prior year development was less beneficial than in 2023, affecting the profitability of commercial lines in Canada.
Company Guidance
In the full year 2024 results presentation, Aviva reported strong financial performance with operating profit up 20% to nearly £1.8 billion and underlying own funds generation (OFG) up 18% to £1.5 billion. The company also announced a final dividend of 23.8p per share, marking a 7% year-on-year increase in total dividend per share. Aviva achieved double-digit growth across its businesses, with U.K. and Ireland General Insurance showing a 16% growth, and Canadian operations also experiencing double-digit growth. The company's wealth segment reached £50 billion in assets on the adviser platform, reinforcing its status as the number one U.K. wealth provider with almost £200 billion in assets. Aviva's Protection & Health segment saw a 42% increase in protection sales, and the retirement segment recorded high bulk purchase annuity volumes. The proposed acquisition of Direct Line is expected to deliver £125 million in cost synergies and unlock capital benefits over time. Aviva remains on track for its 2026 targets, including a return on equity of 13.6% and a strong capital position with a cover ratio of 203%.Aviva Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Revenue rebounded strongly in 2024 (+38%), and leverage looks manageable (debt-to-equity ~0.83). However, profitability is inconsistent (net income down in 2024 vs 2023, low ~3% net margins, and a loss in 2022), equity has declined materially since 2021, and cash flows have been volatile despite a strong 2024 rebound.Income Statement
Revenue rebounded in 2023–2024, with 2024 posting strong top-line growth (+38%). Profitability, however, has been choppy: net income fell from 2023 to 2024 (about $1.1B to $0.7B) and net margins remained low (~3% in both years). Results also show meaningful volatility over the period (including a loss in 2022), which limits confidence in earnings consistency despite generally positive margins in recent years.58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
Leverage appears manageable for a diversified insurer, with debt-to-equity around ~0.83 in 2024 (similar to 2023) and total debt modest relative to the asset base. Return on equity improved from negative in 2022 to positive in 2023–2024, but it also stepped down in 2024 versus 2023 (roughly ~8% vs ~12%), suggesting softer profitability on the equity base. A key watch item is the sharp decline in equity from 2021 to 2024, which reduces balance-sheet cushion even though debt levels have come down modestly.64
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation is volatile: operating cash flow swung from negative in 2023 to strongly positive in 2024 (~$8.4B), and free cash flow similarly moved from negative to ~+$8.3B. While 2024 cash flow strength is a clear positive, the year-to-year swings (including multiple prior periods of negative operating/free cash flow) raise questions about stability and working-capital/investing timing. Free cash flow in 2024 roughly matched net income, supporting earnings quality in the most recent year.55
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 33.28B | 22.74B | 21.58B | 16.20B | 16.66B | 25.84B |
| Gross Profit | 22.34B | 22.74B | 40.76B | -20.72B | 16.66B | 25.84B |
| EBITDA | 1.36B | 1.58B | 2.03B | -887.00M | 1.33B | 3.75B |
| Net Income | 738.00M | 683.00M | 1.08B | -1.05B | 1.97B | 2.80B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 362.14B | 353.88B | 328.84B | 315.32B | 358.47B | 479.86B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 19.96B | 23.48B | 17.27B | 22.50B | 12.48B | 16.90B |
| Total Debt | 6.12B | 6.89B | 7.37B | 8.07B | 8.47B | 11.13B |
| Total Liabilities | 353.67B | 345.26B | 319.24B | 302.42B | 339.02B | 459.30B |
| Stockholders Equity | 8.41B | 8.30B | 9.28B | 9.90B | 19.20B | 19.55B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 4.44B | 8.27B | -3.08B | 15.78B | -2.97B | -2.85B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 4.61B | 8.45B | -2.73B | 15.88B | -2.86B | -2.68B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -218.00M | 162.00M | -350.00M | -339.00M | 74.00M | -135.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.92B | -2.49B | -1.82B | -5.94B | -4.40B | -871.00M |
Aviva Technical Analysis
Negative
17.21
Price Trends
17.67
Negative
17.81
Negative
17.02
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.17
Positive
43.52
Neutral
44.88
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AVVIY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 17.21 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.97, below the 50-day MA of 17.67, and above the 200-day MA of 17.02, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.17 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.52 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 44.88 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AVVIY.
Aviva Risk Analysis
Aviva disclosed 15 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Aviva reported the most risks in the "Macro & Political" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Aviva Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $34.15B | 8.96 | 17.81% | ― | 16.68% | -28.54% | |
78 Outperform | $36.41B | 10.67 | 20.07% | 1.55% | 7.11% | 22.52% | |
75 Outperform | $20.66B | 13.69 | 13.74% | 3.44% | 12.33% | ― | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
67 Neutral | $11.73B | 8.57 | 14.42% | 5.77% | -6.19% | ― | |
64 Neutral | $39.60B | 13.16 | 7.68% | 2.02% | -23.02% | 52.43% | |
63 Neutral | $26.53B | 30.27 | 10.01% | 5.27% | -17.44% | -52.47% |
* Financial Sector Average
AVVIY
Aviva
17.50
5.54
46.31%
AEG
Aegon
7.77
1.55
24.92%
AIG
American International Group
73.39
-0.45
-0.61%
ACGL
Arch Capital Group
94.17
-0.41
-0.43%
HIG
Hartford Insurance
130.67
18.31
16.29%
PFG
Principal Financial
94.05
13.66
16.99%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.