Atlantic Union Bankshares (AUB) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $5.28B
• Dividend Yield: 3.83%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.06M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 18.3
• Beta (1Y): 1.15
• Revenue Growth: 43.53%
• EPS Growth: -21.74%
• Country: US
• Employees: 2,128
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 0.97
• Shares Outstanding: 142,535,250
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 815,948
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,055,587
• PEG Ratio: -1.61
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.00
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.47
• P/FCF Ratio: 51.14
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.24
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.24
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.31
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 16.51
• 1Y Price Target: $44.25
• Price Target Upside: 19.40% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7
• EPS Forecast (FY): 3.76
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $1.58B

• Rating: 63 Neutral
• Price Target: $42.00 ▲(13.33% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 02/27/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 02/27/26

The score is held back primarily by weakened 2025 cash flow and higher leverage despite strong revenue growth. Offsetting this, the latest earnings call/guidance was positive with strong adjusted profitability, solid credit quality, and integration progress, while technicals are mildly supportive and valuation/dividend are moderately attractive.

Positive Factors

Accelerating Revenue Growth

Material top-line acceleration reflects successful scale-up from acquisitions and organic loan growth. Durable revenue expansion expands funding of operating costs, funds loan growth targets, and supports capital build, lowering execution risk for the next several quarters.

High Adjusted Operating Profitability

Consistently top‑quartile adjusted returns and a sub‑50% efficiency ratio indicate structural operating discipline and high earnings power. This durability enhances capacity to absorb merger-related noise and supports sustainable shareholder returns and reinvestment over 2–6 months.

Integration Progress & Cost Savings

Completed systems conversion and realized run‑rate savings reduce operational risk and create permanent expense leverage. As additional savings roll in, margins and efficiency should improve structurally, aiding profitability and free cash flow generation beyond one-off merger impacts.

Negative Factors

Material Cash Flow Weakening

A sharp decline in operating and free cash flow materially reduces internally generated liquidity used for capital returns, loan growth, or contingency buffers. Over 2–6 months this raises reliance on external funding and constrains tactical capital deployment if trends persist.

Sharp Increase in Debt

A sizable year‑over‑year rise in debt raises fixed funding obligations and reduces financial flexibility. Even with larger equity, lower ROE indicates returns haven't kept pace, making the franchise more sensitive to rate moves and potential funding stress over the medium term.

Volatile Accretion/Swap Income & Elevated Expenses

Dependence on deal accretion and volatile swap income to boost NII undermines margin predictability as those sources decline. Concurrently rising noninterest expenses and episodic fraud losses raise the expense base, pressuring sustainable net margins and earnings stability.

Atlantic Union Bankshares Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation operates as the holding company for Atlantic Union Bank that provides banking and related financial services to consumers and businesses. The company accepts various deposit products, including checking, savings, NOW, time deposit, and money market accounts; certificates of deposit; and other depository services. It also provides loans for commercial, industrial, residential mortgage, and consumer purposes. In addition, the company offers credit cards, automated teller machine (ATM) services, mobile and internet banking services, and online bill payment services, as well as financial planning, trust, and wealth management services. Further, it provides securities, brokerage, and investment advisory products and services; and originates and sells residential loan products in the secondary market. As of February 25, 2022, it operated 130 branches and approximately 150 ATMs in Virginia, Maryland, and North Carolina. The company was formerly known as Union Bankshares Corporation and changed its name to Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation in May 2019. Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation was founded in 1902 and is headquartered in Richmond, Virginia.

How the Company Makes Money

Atlantic Union Bankshares generates revenue through several key streams including interest income, fees and commissions, and wealth management services. The majority of its income comes from interest earned on loans and investments, where the bank lends money at higher interest rates than what it pays to depositors. Additionally, the bank charges fees for services such as account maintenance, overdrafts, and transaction services. Wealth management services, which include investment advisory and trust services, also contribute to revenue through fees based on assets under management. Strategic partnerships with local businesses and community organizations enhance customer acquisition and retention, thereby bolstering earnings.

Atlantic Union Bankshares Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong revenue growth in 2025, but overall quality is mixed: net margins compressed, debt increased sharply year over year, and operating/free cash flow deteriorated materially in 2025 versus 2024, raising near-term funding and sustainability concerns.

Income Statement

Revenue growth has accelerated meaningfully, rising from $1.35B (2024) to $2.02B (2025), following steady growth in prior years. Profitability remains solid, but margins have compressed versus earlier periods: net margin declined to ~13.5% (2025) from ~15.5% (2024) and ~19.3% (2023), signaling less favorable spread/expense dynamics. Overall, AUB shows strong top-line momentum with moderating earnings efficiency.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks manageable on the latest year with debt-to-equity of ~0.30 (2025), but debt levels stepped up sharply year over year ($1.50B in 2025 vs. $0.53B in 2024), which reduces flexibility if earnings weaken. Equity has grown substantially (to $5.01B in 2025), providing balance-sheet support, but returns on equity have drifted lower to ~5.5% (2025) from ~6.7% (2024) and ~7.9% (2023), indicating profitability is not keeping pace with the capital base.

Cash Flow

Cash generation weakened materially in 2025: operating cash flow fell to ~$98M from ~$308M in 2024, and free cash flow dropped similarly, with free cash flow growth down ~95.6%. While free cash flow remains roughly in line with net income in the provided data, the sharp year-over-year decline in operating and free cash flow raises questions about sustainability and near-term funding capacity versus recent earnings levels.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.02B	1.35B	1.05B	778.96M	711.16M
Gross Profit	1.23B	767.33M	670.27M	683.76M	730.95M
EBITDA	396.52M	295.11M	280.86M	325.39M	369.49M
Net Income	273.71M	209.13M	201.82M	234.51M	263.92M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	37.59B	24.59B	21.17B	20.46B	20.06B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	4.43B	2.79B	2.60B	3.06B	4.28B
Total Debt	1.50B	534.62M	1.31B	1.71B	506.59M
Total Liabilities	32.58B	21.44B	18.61B	18.09B	17.35B
Stockholders Equity	5.01B	3.14B	2.56B	2.37B	2.71B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	97.85M	301.06M	272.94M	416.82M	328.39M
Operating Cash Flow	97.85M	308.46M	278.05M	419.67M	337.79M
Investing Cash Flow	-268.17M	-295.69M	-603.28M	-1.28B	-345.44M
Financing Cash Flow	169.61M	-36.83M	383.42M	375.18M	316.86M

Atlantic Union Bankshares Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 37.06
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AUB, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 37.06 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 39.89, below the 50-day MA of 38.14, and above the 200-day MA of 33.88, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.10 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.13 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 30.35 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AUB.

Atlantic Union Bankshares Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
AX	78 Outperform	$4.92B	10.99	16.75%	―	1.66%	-9.31%
FFIN	73 Outperform	$4.43B	17.50	13.89%	2.42%	12.90%	16.92%
ABCB	71 Outperform	$5.27B	12.95	10.53%	1.02%	2.20%	20.88%
HWC	70 Outperform	$5.50B	11.62	11.28%	2.74%	-0.78%	25.39%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
AUB	63 Neutral	$5.28B	18.28	6.72%	3.83%	43.53%	-21.74%
UBSI	61 Neutral	$5.80B	12.64	8.84%	3.77%	8.83%	15.49%

Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporate Events

Atlantic Union Bankshares Names New Chief Financial Officer

On February 24, 2026, Atlantic Union Bankshares announced that Alexander D. Dodd, 49, will become executive vice president and chief financial officer of both the company and Atlantic Union Bank, effective April 13, 2026, succeeding long-serving CFO Robert M. Gorman. Gorman, who is retiring after nearly 14 years, will remain through September 30, 2026 as an executive advisor to support a structured leadership handover and continuity in the finance function.

Dodd joins from TD Bank Group, where over nearly two decades he held senior finance roles including deputy CFO, executive vice president, and interim CFO for TD’s U.S. operations. His extensive experience overseeing line-of-business CFOs, financial planning and analysis and corporate strategy at a large North American institution is expected to strengthen Atlantic Union’s financial leadership as it competes among regional banks and executes its growth strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (AUB) stock is a Buy with a $47.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Atlantic Union Bankshares stock, see the AUB Stock Forecast page.

Atlantic Union Bankshares outlines 2026 strategy and outlook

Atlantic Union Bankshares has released an investor presentation to be used by management in meetings with investors, analysts and other stakeholders during the first quarter of 2026, outlining its strategic priorities, financial outlook for 2026, and expansion plans, including its North Carolina growth strategy and integration of recent acquisitions such as Sandy Spring Bancorp and American National. The materials highlight the company’s expectations and underlying assumptions regarding deposit funding, net interest margin, capital and liquidity, asset quality and commercial real estate exposure, while also emphasizing a wide range of macroeconomic, regulatory, credit, and operational risks that could materially affect actual results, signaling to stakeholders both the potential benefits of its growth and acquisition strategy and the considerable uncertainties surrounding its execution in the current banking environment.

The most recent analyst rating on (AUB) stock is a Buy with a $44.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Atlantic Union Bankshares stock, see the AUB Stock Forecast page.

Atlantic Union Bankshares Declares Quarterly Common and Preferred Dividends

On January 29, 2026, Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation announced that its board declared a quarterly common stock dividend of $0.37 per share, unchanged from the fourth quarter of 2025 but $0.03, or 8.8%, higher than the first quarter of 2025; based on the January 28, 2026 closing price of $38.90, the dividend equates to a yield of about 3.8%, and will be paid on February 27, 2026 to shareholders of record as of February 13, 2026. The board also approved a quarterly dividend on its 6.875% Perpetual Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock, Series A, of $171.88 per share, or $0.43 per depositary share, payable on March 2, 2026 to holders of record on February 13, 2026, underscoring the company’s continued emphasis on returning capital to both common and preferred shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AUB) stock is a Hold with a $44.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Atlantic Union Bankshares stock, see the AUB Stock Forecast page.

Atlantic Union Bankshares Reports Strong Q4 2025 Earnings

On January 22, 2026, Atlantic Union Bankshares reported that for the fourth quarter of 2025 it generated net income available to common shareholders of $109.0 million, or $0.77 per share, and adjusted operating earnings of $138.4 million, or $0.97 per diluted share, reflecting the ongoing impact of merger-related charges tied to its Sandy Spring Bancorp acquisition. For full-year 2025, the company posted net income of $261.8 million, or $2.03 per share, and adjusted operating earnings of $444.8 million, or $3.44 per share, with management highlighting that the strong adjusted results underscore the earnings capacity of the combined franchise and support its strategic targets for profitability and efficiency. Fourth-quarter net interest income rose to $330.2 million, driven by lower deposit costs after Federal Reserve rate cuts and higher loan and investment income, pushing the net interest margin to 3.90% as accretion from the Sandy Spring deal boosted yields. Asset quality remained solid at year-end 2025, with nonperforming assets at 0.42% of loans held for investment, declining from the prior quarter due to fewer new problem credits and resolutions of existing ones, while net charge-offs were negligible at 0.01% of average loans and the allowance for credit losses edged up to $321.3 million, indicating continued conservative credit provisioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (AUB) stock is a Hold with a $44.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Atlantic Union Bankshares stock, see the AUB Stock Forecast page.

Atlantic Union Schedules Q4 and Full-Year 2025 Results

Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation announced on December 30, 2025, that it will release its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 financial results before markets open on Thursday, January 22, 2026, followed by a conference call and webcast for investors at 9:00 a.m. Eastern Time the same day. The planned release and investor call underscore the company’s ongoing engagement with the investment community, offering stakeholders an opportunity to assess recent financial performance and strategic activities as the regional banking group closes out its 2025 fiscal year.

The most recent analyst rating on (AUB) stock is a Hold with a $38.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Atlantic Union Bankshares stock, see the AUB Stock Forecast page.

Atlantic Union Bankshares Outlines Strategic Growth Plans

On December 10, 2025, Atlantic Union Bankshares hosted an Investor Day at the New York Stock Exchange, where the executive management team outlined the company’s strategic priorities and future plans. The presentation included updated financial outlooks for 2025 and 2026, and medium-term financial targets, reflecting the company’s focus on strategic growth and expansion, particularly in North Carolina, and its acquisition of Sandy Spring Bancorp, Inc.

The most recent analyst rating on (AUB) stock is a Buy with a $39.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Atlantic Union Bankshares stock, see the AUB Stock Forecast page.