Atlantic Union Bankshares (AUB) AI Stock Analysis

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Atlantic Union Bankshares

(NYSE:AUB)

Select Model

Outperform 77 (OpenAI - 5.2)

Rating:77Outperform

Price Target:

$44.00

▲(13.29% Upside)

Overall score reflects solid financial performance (growth, conservative leverage, and supportive free cash flow), reinforced by bullish technicals with price above major moving averages. The latest earnings call added strength via reiterated 2026 guidance and strong adjusted profitability/asset quality, while valuation is reasonable with a supportive dividend yield but a mid-range P/E.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Consistent revenue growth indicates strong market demand and effective business strategies, supporting long-term financial stability.

Improved Credit Quality

Improved credit quality reduces risk and enhances financial health, ensuring better asset management and profitability.

Dividend Increase

Increasing dividends reflect strong cash flow and confidence in future earnings, enhancing shareholder value and investment appeal.

Negative Factors

Merger-Related Costs

Ongoing merger-related costs can strain resources and impact profitability, posing challenges to achieving cost efficiency.

Increased Charge-Offs

Rising charge-offs indicate potential credit risk issues, which could affect future earnings and require tighter credit controls.

Competition in Lending Markets

Heightened competition may pressure margins and limit growth opportunities, challenging the bank's ability to expand its loan portfolio.

Atlantic Union Bankshares (AUB) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$5.54B

Dividend Yield3.83%

Average Volume (3M)1.05M

Price to Earnings (P/E)19.3

Beta (1Y)1.10

Revenue Growth43.53%

EPS Growth-21.74%

CountryUS

Employees2,128

SectorFinancial

Sector Strength70

IndustryBanks - Regional

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.97

Shares Outstanding142,518,160

10 Day Avg. Volume1,316,451

30 Day Avg. Volume1,048,483

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-1.61

Price to Book (P/B)1.00

Price to Sales (P/S)2.47

P/FCF Ratio0.00

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.23

Enterprise Value/Revenue3.36

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.52

Enterprise Value/Ebitda17.15

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$43.25

Price Target Upside11.35% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering7

EPS Forecast (FY)3.75

Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.57B

Atlantic Union Bankshares Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAtlantic Union Bankshares Corporation operates as the holding company for Atlantic Union Bank that provides banking and related financial services to consumers and businesses. The company accepts various deposit products, including checking, savings, NOW, time deposit, and money market accounts; certificates of deposit; and other depository services. It also provides loans for commercial, industrial, residential mortgage, and consumer purposes. In addition, the company offers credit cards, automated teller machine (ATM) services, mobile and internet banking services, and online bill payment services, as well as financial planning, trust, and wealth management services. Further, it provides securities, brokerage, and investment advisory products and services; and originates and sells residential loan products in the secondary market. As of February 25, 2022, it operated 130 branches and approximately 150 ATMs in Virginia, Maryland, and North Carolina. The company was formerly known as Union Bankshares Corporation and changed its name to Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation in May 2019. Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation was founded in 1902 and is headquartered in Richmond, Virginia.

How the Company Makes MoneyAtlantic Union Bankshares generates revenue through several key streams including interest income, fees and commissions, and wealth management services. The majority of its income comes from interest earned on loans and investments, where the bank lends money at higher interest rates than what it pays to depositors. Additionally, the bank charges fees for services such as account maintenance, overdrafts, and transaction services. Wealth management services, which include investment advisory and trust services, also contribute to revenue through fees based on assets under management. Strategic partnerships with local businesses and community organizations enhance customer acquisition and retention, thereby bolstering earnings.

Atlantic Union Bankshares Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jan 22, 2026

(Q4-2025)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:Apr 28, 2026

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The call conveyed robust operating performance following the Sandy Spring acquisition: strong loan growth, NIM expansion, top-tier adjusted returns (ROTCE and efficiency), improved asset quality, tangible book growth, and reiterated 2026 guidance. Key negatives were sizable merger-related pretax charges that depressed GAAP results, seasonal deposit outflows in Q4, some elevated noninterest expenses (including episodic fraud losses), and the acknowledged variability of accretion and swap income. Management presented clear integration progress, a path to cost savings, and constructive capital deployment plans (dividend increase and potential buybacks when excess capital criteria are met). Overall the positive operating fundamentals and outlook outweighed the transitory and integration-related headwinds.

Q4-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong Q4 Loan Growth and Refilled Pipeline

Loans held for investment rose to $27.8B, up $435M (≈6.3% annualized) in Q4; management reported the loan pipeline was higher at quarter end versus quarter start and reiterated 2026 year-end loan guidance of $29B–$30B.

Net Interest Margin and NII Improvement

Fully tax-equivalent net interest margin increased 13 basis points to 3.96% in Q4; tax-equivalent net interest income was $334.8M for the quarter (up $11.2M vs. Q3). Full‑year NII guidance for 2026 is $1.35B–$1.375B.

Outstanding Adjusted Operating Profitability Metrics

Q4 adjusted operating earnings available to common shareholders were $138.4M ($0.97 EPS) producing adjusted operating ROTCE of 22.1%, adjusted operating ROA of 1.5% and adjusted efficiency ratio of 47.8%; full-year 2025 adjusted ROTCE was 20.4%.

Asset Quality Remains Strong

Q4 annualized net charge-off ratio was 1 basis point and full-year NCOs were 17 basis points (within 15–20 bps guidance); non-performing assets declined to 0.42% of loans (down 7 bps QoQ) and criticized/classified assets stayed low at 4.7%.

Deposit Cost Reduction and Cost of Funds Improvement

Cost of funds decreased 14 basis points to 2.03% in Q4 as management aggressively lowered deposit rates (~$12–$13B repriced), contributing meaningfully to margin expansion.

Integration Progress and Realized/Future Cost Savings

Core systems conversion completed in October; merger-related charge noise expected to decline with only modest residual expenses anticipated in Q1 (~< $5M). Management reiterated $80M targeted run‑rate cost savings, with ~60M annualized already achieved and additional savings coming through.

Capital, Shareholder Returns and Tangible Book Value Growth

Regulatory capital ratios remain comfortably above well-capitalized levels; tangible book value per common share rose ~4% to $19.69 in Q4; common dividend increased 8.8% to $0.37/share and management indicated potential share repurchases when excess capital is available (targeting CET1 >10.5%).

Guidance and 2026 Outlook Reiterated

Management maintained 2026 guidance: year-end deposits $31.5B–$32.5B, allowance-to-loans ~115–120 bps, net charge-offs 10–15 bps, fully tax-equivalent NIM ~3.94% (assumes two 25 bps Fed cuts). Accretion income baseline modeled at $150M–$160M for 2026.

Negative Updates

Material Merger-Related Charges

Merger-related pretax costs materially affected reported results: $38.6M excluded in Q4 and $157.3M excluded for full-year 2025; these items reduced GAAP reported earnings (reported net income available to common was $109M, EPS $0.77 in Q4).

Quarterly Deposit Decline and Seasonality

Total deposits fell to $30.5B, down $193.7M (≈2.5% annualized) QoQ, driven by a $260M decline in demand deposits; management attributes much of the decline to typical year‑end commercial activity though some balances only returned in early Q1.

Higher Noninterest Expense and Episodic Fraud Losses

Adjusted operating noninterest expense increased to $186.9M (up $1.4M QoQ) driven by a $2.4M rise in other expenses including elevated noncredit customer losses (fraud/scam-related), and increased marketing spend; fraud items described as episodic but elevated in Q4.

Volatility and Future Uncertainty in Accretion and Swap Income

Accretion income boosted Q4 results but is expected to decline over time (management models $150M–$160M for 2026); interest-rate swap income is a meaningful contributor but acknowledged as quarter-to-quarter variable (27% of swap income in Q4 from former Sandy Spring customers).

One-Time Items and Prior Quarter Charge-offs

Q3 included two C&I charge-offs that drove a Q3 net charge-off ratio of 56 bps annualized; Q4 benefited from the absence of those but highlights the possible volatility in credit metrics if large events occur.

Earning Asset Yield Slightly Pressured and Margin Risks from Fed Cuts

Earning asset yields decreased modestly (1 basis point QoQ) and management notes future margin pressure is possible if the Fed cuts rates more or faster than modeled, although they plan to offset with lower deposit costs.

Company Guidance

Management reiterated its full‑year 2026 outlook: year‑end loans of $29–$30 billion and deposits of $31.5–$32.5 billion; allowance for credit losses to loans of roughly 115–120 bps with a net charge‑off ratio guided to 10–15 bps; full‑year fully tax‑equivalent net interest income of $1.35–$1.375 billion (inclusive of accretion) and a projected FTE NIM of about 3.94% (assuming two 25‑bp Fed cuts in April and September); purchase‑account accretion modeled at roughly $150–$160 million; noninterest income of $220–$230 million and adjusted operating noninterest expense of $750–$760 million (about $188 million/quarter average, with a modestly higher Q1 due to seasonality); tangible book value per share growth targeted at 12–15% and a goal to be in the top quartile of peers, with excess capital above ~10.5% CET1 available for potential buybacks; management also noted only modest residual merger‑related costs (under ~$5 million) in Q1 and that regulatory capital ratios remain comfortably above well‑capitalized levels.

Atlantic Union Bankshares Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Income statement is solid with 11.07% TTM revenue growth, healthy gross margin (57.64%) and stable net margin (12.05%), but declining EBIT/EBITDA margins signal cost pressure. Balance sheet leverage is conservative (debt-to-equity 0.17) though ROE is modest (5.46%). Cash flow is supportive with 3.97% TTM FCF growth and strong FCF-to-net income (99.56%), partially offset by a low operating cash flow to net income ratio (0.07).

Income Statement

Positive

Atlantic Union Bankshares has shown a solid revenue growth rate of 11.07% in the TTM, indicating strong top-line expansion. The gross profit margin is healthy at 57.64%, and the net profit margin is stable at 12.05%. However, the EBIT and EBITDA margins have decreased compared to previous years, suggesting potential cost pressures or operational inefficiencies.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The company's debt-to-equity ratio has improved to 0.17, reflecting a more conservative leverage position. Return on equity is modest at 5.46%, indicating moderate profitability relative to shareholder equity. The equity ratio stands at 13.26%, suggesting a stable capital structure but with room for improvement in asset efficiency.

Cash Flow

Positive

Free cash flow has grown by 3.97% in the TTM, demonstrating effective cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is low at 0.07, which may indicate potential cash flow management issues. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 99.56%, highlighting efficient conversion of earnings into cash.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.02B	1.35B	1.05B	778.96M	711.16M
Gross Profit	1.23B	767.33M	670.27M	683.76M	730.95M
EBITDA	396.52M	295.11M	280.86M	325.39M	369.49M
Net Income	273.71M	209.13M	201.82M	234.51M	263.92M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	37.59B	24.59B	21.17B	20.46B	20.06B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	4.43B	2.79B	2.60B	3.06B	4.28B
Total Debt	1.50B	534.62M	1.31B	1.71B	506.59M
Total Liabilities	32.58B	21.44B	18.61B	18.09B	17.35B
Stockholders Equity	5.01B	3.14B	2.56B	2.37B	2.71B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	301.06M	272.94M	416.82M	328.39M
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	308.46M	278.05M	419.67M	337.79M
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-295.69M	-603.28M	-1.28B	-345.44M
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	-36.83M	383.42M	375.18M	316.86M

Atlantic Union Bankshares Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price38.84

Price Trends

50DMA

36.19

Positive

100DMA

35.08

Positive

200DMA

32.88

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

0.88

Negative

RSI

58.65

Neutral

STOCH

49.86

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AUB, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 38.84 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 37.94, above the 50-day MA of 36.19, and above the 200-day MA of 32.88, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.88 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.65 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 49.86 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AUB.

Atlantic Union Bankshares Risk Analysis

Atlantic Union Bankshares disclosed 67 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Atlantic Union Bankshares reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Atlantic Union Bankshares Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (68)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
UBSI	80 Outperform	$5.94B	12.95	8.84%	3.77%	8.83%	15.49%
AUB	77 Outperform	$5.54B	19.34	6.72%	3.83%	43.53%	-21.74%
ABCB	75 Outperform	$5.51B	13.55	10.53%	1.02%	2.20%	20.88%
AX	75 Outperform	$5.61B	12.53	16.75%	―	1.66%	-9.31%
FFIN	73 Outperform	$4.56B	17.94	13.89%	2.42%	12.90%	16.92%
HWC	73 Outperform	$5.75B	12.09	11.28%	2.74%	-0.78%	25.39%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%

* Financial Sector Average

Performance Comparison

AUB

Atlantic Union Bankshares

38.84

3.40

9.59%

ABCB

Ameris Bancorp

80.62

16.98

26.69%

Axos Financial

98.99

30.06

43.61%

FFIN

First Financial Bankshares

31.82

-4.32

-11.95%

HWC

Hancock Whitney

68.80

11.75

20.60%

UBSI

United Bankshares

42.33

6.24

17.28%

Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporate Events

Dividends

Atlantic Union Bankshares Declares Quarterly Common and Preferred Dividends

Positive

Jan 29, 2026

On January 29, 2026, Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation announced that its board declared a quarterly common stock dividend of $0.37 per share, unchanged from the fourth quarter of 2025 but $0.03, or 8.8%, higher than the first quarter of 2025; based on the January 28, 2026 closing price of $38.90, the dividend equates to a yield of about 3.8%, and will be paid on February 27, 2026 to shareholders of record as of February 13, 2026. The board also approved a quarterly dividend on its 6.875% Perpetual Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock, Series A, of $171.88 per share, or $0.43 per depositary share, payable on March 2, 2026 to holders of record on February 13, 2026, underscoring the company’s continued emphasis on returning capital to both common and preferred shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AUB) stock is a Hold with a $44.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Atlantic Union Bankshares stock, see the AUB Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions

Atlantic Union Bankshares Reports Strong Q4 2025 Earnings

Positive

Jan 22, 2026

On January 22, 2026, Atlantic Union Bankshares reported that for the fourth quarter of 2025 it generated net income available to common shareholders of $109.0 million, or $0.77 per share, and adjusted operating earnings of $138.4 million, or $0.97 per diluted share, reflecting the ongoing impact of merger-related charges tied to its Sandy Spring Bancorp acquisition. For full-year 2025, the company posted net income of $261.8 million, or $2.03 per share, and adjusted operating earnings of $444.8 million, or $3.44 per share, with management highlighting that the strong adjusted results underscore the earnings capacity of the combined franchise and support its strategic targets for profitability and efficiency. Fourth-quarter net interest income rose to $330.2 million, driven by lower deposit costs after Federal Reserve rate cuts and higher loan and investment income, pushing the net interest margin to 3.90% as accretion from the Sandy Spring deal boosted yields. Asset quality remained solid at year-end 2025, with nonperforming assets at 0.42% of loans held for investment, declining from the prior quarter due to fewer new problem credits and resolutions of existing ones, while net charge-offs were negligible at 0.01% of average loans and the allowance for credit losses edged up to $321.3 million, indicating continued conservative credit provisioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (AUB) stock is a Hold with a $44.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Atlantic Union Bankshares stock, see the AUB Stock Forecast page.

Financial Disclosures

Atlantic Union Schedules Q4 and Full-Year 2025 Results

Neutral

Dec 30, 2025

Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation announced on December 30, 2025, that it will release its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 financial results before markets open on Thursday, January 22, 2026, followed by a conference call and webcast for investors at 9:00 a.m. Eastern Time the same day. The planned release and investor call underscore the company’s ongoing engagement with the investment community, offering stakeholders an opportunity to assess recent financial performance and strategic activities as the regional banking group closes out its 2025 fiscal year.

The most recent analyst rating on (AUB) stock is a Hold with a $38.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Atlantic Union Bankshares stock, see the AUB Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions

Atlantic Union Bankshares Outlines Strategic Growth Plans

Positive

Dec 10, 2025

On December 10, 2025, Atlantic Union Bankshares hosted an Investor Day at the New York Stock Exchange, where the executive management team outlined the company’s strategic priorities and future plans. The presentation included updated financial outlooks for 2025 and 2026, and medium-term financial targets, reflecting the company’s focus on strategic growth and expansion, particularly in North Carolina, and its acquisition of Sandy Spring Bancorp, Inc.

The most recent analyst rating on (AUB) stock is a Buy with a $39.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Atlantic Union Bankshares stock, see the AUB Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy

Atlantic Union Bankshares Plans December Investor Day

Neutral

Nov 19, 2025

Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation announced it will host an investor day at the New York Stock Exchange on December 10, 2025. The event will feature presentations by the executive management team, including the President and CEO, CFO, and COO, discussing the company’s strategic priorities and future plans. Attendees can participate either in person or virtually, with pre-registration required.

The most recent analyst rating on (AUB) stock is a Buy with a $44.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Atlantic Union Bankshares stock, see the AUB Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions

Atlantic Union Bankshares Discusses Q4 2025 Investor Insights

Positive

Oct 31, 2025

Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation has released a handout for meetings with investors and analysts in the fourth quarter of 2025. The document includes insights on the company’s acquisition of Sandy Spring Bancorp, Inc., and outlines strategic priorities, market opportunities, and financial outlooks. The release highlights the company’s expansion strategy and potential impacts on its operations and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (AUB) stock is a Buy with a $44.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Atlantic Union Bankshares stock, see the AUB Stock Forecast page.

Dividends

Atlantic Union Bankshares Increases Quarterly Dividend by 8.8%

Positive

Oct 30, 2025

On October 30, 2025, Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation announced an 8.8% increase in its quarterly dividend to $0.37 per share of common stock, payable on November 28, 2025, reflecting a dividend yield of approximately 4.5% based on the October 29, 2025 closing price. Additionally, the company declared a quarterly dividend on its 6.875% Perpetual Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock, Series A, with a dividend of $171.88 per share, equivalent to $0.43 per depositary share, payable on December 1, 2025, to holders of record as of November 14, 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (AUB) stock is a Buy with a $44.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Atlantic Union Bankshares stock, see the AUB Stock Forecast page.

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jan 30, 2026