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Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation (AUB)
NYSE:AUB

Atlantic Union Bankshares (AUB) AI Stock Analysis

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Atlantic Union Bankshares

(NYSE:AUB)

Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$33.00
▲(10.52%Upside)
Atlantic Union Bankshares scores well due to solid financial performance, attractive valuation, and positive corporate events. While technical indicators show mixed signals, strategic acquisitions and dividend stability provide confidence in future growth prospects.
Positive Factors
Loan Growth
The loan pipeline increase bodes well for loan growth, with mid-single digit loan growth guidance considered achievable.
Valuation
The upgrade to Strong Buy reflects the attractive valuation for a desirable franchise likely to show significant improvement in financial performance.
Negative Factors
Loan Growth Demand
There is downside risk to consensus estimates for loan growth on weaker industry-wide demand and as AUB diversifies its loan portfolio from CRE.
Loan Growth Risk
There is more risk to AUB's loan growth outlook than peers given their geographic footprint and efforts to gradually diversify their loan portfolio over time.

Atlantic Union Bankshares (AUB) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Atlantic Union Bankshares Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAtlantic Union Bankshares Corporation operates as the holding company for Atlantic Union Bank that provides banking and related financial services to consumers and businesses. The company accepts various deposit products, including checking, savings, NOW, time deposit, and money market accounts; certificates of deposit; and other depository services. It also provides loans for commercial, industrial, residential mortgage, and consumer purposes. In addition, the company offers credit cards, automated teller machine (ATM) services, mobile and internet banking services, and online bill payment services, as well as financial planning, trust, and wealth management services. Further, it provides securities, brokerage, and investment advisory products and services; and originates and sells residential loan products in the secondary market. As of February 25, 2022, it operated 130 branches and approximately 150 ATMs in Virginia, Maryland, and North Carolina. The company was formerly known as Union Bankshares Corporation and changed its name to Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation in May 2019. Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation was founded in 1902 and is headquartered in Richmond, Virginia.
How the Company Makes MoneyAtlantic Union Bankshares makes money primarily through interest income derived from its loan portfolio and securities. The bank lends to individuals and businesses, earning interest on loans such as mortgages, personal loans, and commercial loans. Additionally, it generates revenue through non-interest income, which includes fees from services like wealth management, account maintenance, transaction services, and mortgage banking. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships and investments that enhance its service offerings and expand its market reach. A significant portion of its earnings comes from the spread between the interest it earns on loans and the interest it pays on deposits, known as the net interest margin.

Atlantic Union Bankshares Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 24, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 14.67%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 24, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflected a balanced sentiment, with notable achievements in margin expansion, deposit growth, and a successful acquisition, offset by concerns about economic uncertainty, increased loan loss provisions, and higher noninterest expenses.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Net Interest Margin Expansion
The company reported a 12 basis point expansion in net interest margin for the first quarter.
Deposit Growth Achievement
Atlantic Union Bankshares achieved a 2.1% annualized deposit growth in the first quarter.
Noninterest-Bearing Deposits Increase
Noninterest-bearing deposits increased by $194 million, representing 22% of total deposits.
Sandy Spring Acquisition Completion
The acquisition of Sandy Spring was completed ahead of schedule, with the expectation of accelerating cost savings.
Credit Quality and Low Charge-Offs
Credit remained solid with annualized net charge-offs at five basis points and otherwise mild credit trends.
Loan Growth Expected Post-Acquisition
The company expects mid-single-digit loan growth for the year and has a strong pipeline.
Negative Updates
Loan Loss Provision Increase
A $17.6 million loan loss provision was booked due to increased economic uncertainty and the risk of a national recession.
Decrease in Noninterest Income
Noninterest income decreased by $6 million to $29.2 million, driven by declines in loan-related interest rate swap fees.
Increased Noninterest Expense
Noninterest expense increased by $4.5 million to $134.2 million in the first quarter.
Economic Uncertainty and Recession Risk
The company noted increased uncertainty in the economic outlook and the elevated risk of a national recession.
Potential Impact of Tariffs
Concerns were raised about the potential impact of new trade policies and tariffs on the economy.
Company Guidance
In the first quarter of 2025, Atlantic Union Bankshares reported several key financial metrics. The net interest margin expanded by 12 basis points, while the cost of funds decreased by 18 basis points. Average loan growth was 1.3% annualized quarter-over-quarter, despite loans held for investment decreasing by 0.9% annualized due to late quarter payoffs and credit paydowns. Deposit growth was 2.1% annualized, with noninterest-bearing deposits increasing by $194 million, representing 22% of total deposits. The credit quality remained solid with a net charge-off ratio of five basis points, and a loan loss provision expense of $17.6 million was recorded, raising the allowance for loan losses to 1.05% of loans held for investment. The company expects a full-year net charge-off ratio between fifteen and twenty-five basis points, with no forecasted recession but acknowledging economic uncertainty. The updated financial outlook includes the impact of the Sandy Spring acquisition, projecting year-end loan balances of $28-29 billion and deposit balances of $31-32 billion, with net interest margin expected to be 3.75-4.0% for the full year.

Atlantic Union Bankshares Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Atlantic Union Bankshares demonstrates a solid financial standing with consistent revenue and strong cash flow management. There are some concerns with return on equity, but overall, the company maintains a balanced approach to growth and stability, with moderate leverage and efficient cash flows.
Income Statement
72
Positive
The income statement shows a steady revenue stream with a slight decline in the TTM compared to the previous year. Gross profit margin remains healthy, indicating strong core operations. Net profit margin is stable, though slightly lower in the recent period. The company shows good control over its costs, with improving EBIT and EBITDA margins.
Balance Sheet
65
Positive
The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a reasonable debt-to-equity ratio, suggesting manageable leverage. The equity ratio is robust, indicating solid asset backing. However, the return on equity has been decreasing, reflecting potential inefficiencies in generating returns for shareholders.
Cash Flow
78
Positive
Cash flow analysis reveals strong operating cash flow, supporting a healthy cash generation capability. Free cash flow growth is consistent, and both operating and free cash flow ratios to net income indicate efficient cash utilization. This reflects effective cash management strategies.
Breakdown
TTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
1.22B1.35B696.27M696.21M677.07M686.78M
Gross Profit
1.21B817.42M696.27M683.76M677.07M686.78M
EBIT
201.19M259.79M233.11M270.85M318.76M186.29M
EBITDA
294.88M295.11M261.60M325.39M369.49M229.40M
Net Income Common Stockholders
209.18M209.13M201.82M234.51M263.92M158.23M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
2.92B2.64B2.61B3.06B4.28B3.03B
Total Assets
24.63B24.59B21.17B20.46B20.06B19.63B
Total Debt
475.69M478.30M1.31B1.71B506.59M589.83M
Net Debt
45.51M128.17M947.50M1.39B-293.08M98.55M
Total Liabilities
21.45B21.44B18.61B18.09B17.35B16.92B
Stockholders Equity
3.19B3.14B2.56B2.37B2.71B2.71B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
303.91M301.06M258.87M401.11M328.39M202.35M
Operating Cash Flow
311.58M308.46M278.05M403.96M264.71M231.92M
Investing Cash Flow
-65.82M-295.69M-591.99M-1.26B-345.44M-1.92B
Financing Cash Flow
-204.86M-36.83M383.42M375.18M316.86M1.74B

Atlantic Union Bankshares Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price29.86
Price Trends
50DMA
28.60
Positive
100DMA
31.07
Negative
200DMA
34.50
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
0.32
Positive
RSI
47.84
Neutral
STOCH
7.12
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AUB, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 29.86 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 30.30, above the 50-day MA of 28.60, and below the 200-day MA of 34.50, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.32 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.84 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 7.12 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AUB.

Atlantic Union Bankshares Risk Analysis

Atlantic Union Bankshares disclosed 67 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Atlantic Union Bankshares reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Atlantic Union Bankshares Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
AXAX
80
Outperform
$4.01B9.8117.80%15.93%0.17%
76
Outperform
$4.18B11.2510.19%1.31%7.16%31.69%
76
Outperform
$3.89B9.5315.20%2.22%4.24%0.38%
AUAUB
72
Outperform
$4.25B13.677.30%4.55%26.09%-19.05%
72
Outperform
$3.97B18.1214.14%1.54%11.42%7.58%
ASASB
69
Neutral
$3.83B27.103.23%3.99%0.21%-12.02%
65
Neutral
$12.76B9.917.89%78.91%12.06%-7.95%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AUB
Atlantic Union Bankshares
29.86
-0.60
-1.97%
ABCB
Ameris Bancorp
60.91
13.04
27.24%
ASB
Associated Banc-Corp
23.08
3.14
15.75%
BANF
BancFirst
119.52
35.78
42.73%
AX
Axos Financial
72.04
16.91
30.67%
IBOC
International Bancshares
63.02
8.77
16.17%

Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporate Events

Executive/Board Changes
Atlantic Union Bankshares CFO Retirement Announcement
Neutral
May 22, 2025

On May 22, 2025, Atlantic Union Bankshares announced the planned retirement of Robert M. Gorman, its executive vice president and chief financial officer, effective by March 31, 2026. Gorman, who has been instrumental in the company’s growth from a $4 billion asset community bank to a $40 billion regional leader, will continue in an advisory role post-retirement to ensure a smooth transition as the company conducts a nationwide search for his successor.

The most recent analyst rating on (AUB) stock is a Hold with a $38.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Atlantic Union Bankshares stock, see the AUB Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsFinancial Disclosures
Atlantic Union Bankshares Discusses Sandy Spring Bancorp Acquisition
Positive
May 13, 2025

In a recent announcement, Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation disclosed information regarding its management’s use of a handout during investor meetings in the second quarter of 2025. The company highlighted its recent acquisition of Sandy Spring Bancorp, Inc., and discussed the expected benefits, including accretion to earnings per share and other financial metrics. The announcement also addressed various risks and uncertainties that could impact the company’s future performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (AUB) stock is a Hold with a $38.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Atlantic Union Bankshares stock, see the AUB Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board Changes
Atlantic Union Bankshares Appoints New Chief Risk Officer
Neutral
May 13, 2025

On May 13, 2025, Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation announced the appointment of Bradley S. Haun as the new chief risk officer, succeeding Sherry Williams, who will retire on July 1, 2025. Mr. Haun, who has been with the company since 2011, has held various roles, including executive vice president and chief audit executive, and is expected to bring his experience and leadership to enhance the company’s risk functions.

The most recent analyst rating on (AUB) stock is a Hold with a $38.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Atlantic Union Bankshares stock, see the AUB Stock Forecast page.

Dividends
Atlantic Union Bankshares Declares Quarterly Dividends
Positive
May 6, 2025

On May 6, 2025, Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation announced its Board of Directors declared a quarterly dividend of $0.34 per share of common stock, maintaining the same rate as the first quarter of 2025 and marking a 6% increase from the second quarter of 2024. Additionally, the Board declared a quarterly dividend on its 6.875% Perpetual Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock, Series A, with dividends payable in early June 2025. This announcement reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to returning value to its shareholders.

Shareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Atlantic Union Bankshares Approves 2025 Stock Incentive Plan
Positive
May 6, 2025

On May 6, 2025, Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation’s shareholders approved the 2025 Stock and Incentive Plan during the annual meeting. This plan, which replaces the 2021 Plan, reserves up to 2,500,000 shares for various equity awards to motivate employees and directors, aiming to enhance the company’s operational success and shareholder value. The meeting also saw the election of directors, the ratification of Ernst & Young LLP as the independent auditor for 2025, and the approval of executive compensation, reflecting shareholder support for the company’s strategic initiatives.

M&A TransactionsShareholder Meetings
Atlantic Union Bankshares Discusses Sandy Spring Acquisition
Neutral
May 6, 2025

On May 6, 2025, Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation’s executive officers presented at the Annual Meeting of Shareholders, discussing the company’s recent acquisition of Sandy Spring Bancorp, Inc. The acquisition is expected to enhance earnings per share and improve various financial metrics, although it comes with integration challenges and market uncertainties.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Atlantic Union Completes Merger with Sandy Spring Bancorp
Neutral
Apr 24, 2025

Atlantic Union Bankshares reported a net income of $46.9 million for the first quarter of 2025, with earnings per share of $0.53. The company completed its merger with Sandy Spring Bancorp on April 1, 2025, acquiring 53 branches and enhancing its presence in Virginia and Maryland. The merger is expected to accelerate cost savings and strengthen Atlantic Union’s market position as the largest regional banking franchise in the lower Mid-Atlantic. Despite a solid start to the year with net interest margin expansion and loan growth, the company increased its loan loss reserves due to economic uncertainties.

Delistings and Listing ChangesM&A Transactions
Atlantic Union Bankshares Completes Merger with Sandy Spring
Positive
Apr 1, 2025

On April 1, 2025, Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation completed its merger with Sandy Spring Bancorp, Inc., creating the largest regional banking franchise in the lower Mid-Atlantic. The merger, valued at approximately $1.3 billion, strengthens Atlantic Union’s presence in Virginia and Maryland and is expected to deliver long-term shareholder value. As a result of the merger, Sandy Spring’s subsidiary bank was merged into Atlantic Union Bank, and Sandy Spring Common Stock was delisted from Nasdaq.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.