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Atlantic Union Bankshares
(NYSE:AUB)
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Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
$48.00
â–²(13.66% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/31/26
AUB scores well overall due to solid financial performance (revenue acceleration, stable profitability, improving leverage) and a positive earnings outlook with strong credit and capital return plans. Technicals are supportive with price above key moving averages, and valuation is attractive with a moderate P/E and solid dividend yield. The primary constraint on the score is funding pressure (higher deposit costs/mix shift) and historical cash-flow volatility.
Positive Factors
Sustained Loan Growth
Consistent, above‑trend loan growth increases earning assets and supports durable net interest income. Management’s guidance to $29–$30B year‑end loans implies scalable core franchise expansion across the Mid‑Atlantic, strengthening revenue base and competitive position over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Deposit Mix Shift & Funding Pressure
A structural shift toward higher‑cost deposit products and elevated competition pressures funding costs and compresses net interest margin. Over several months this forces pricing tradeoffs, may slow margin recovery, and can require more wholesale funding or reduced loan yield passthrough to preserve spreads.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Sustained Loan Growth
Consistent, above‑trend loan growth increases earning assets and supports durable net interest income. Management’s guidance to $29–$30B year‑end loans implies scalable core franchise expansion across the Mid‑Atlantic, strengthening revenue base and competitive position over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Atlantic Union Bankshares (AUB) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$6.02B
Dividend Yield3.42%
Average Volume (3M)1.33M
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.7
Beta (1Y)1.18
Revenue Growth35.21%
EPS Growth61.65%
CountryUS
Employees3,064
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.36
Shares Outstanding141,924,160
10 Day Avg. Volume1,381,517
30 Day Avg. Volume1,333,597
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.53
Price to Book (P/B)0.91
Price to Sales (P/S)2.23
P/FCF Ratio53.21
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$45.75Price Target Upside8.34% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)3.77
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.55B
Atlantic Union Bankshares Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation (AUB) serves as the parent entity for Atlantic Union Bank, through which it delivers a comprehensive suite of banking and financial solutions to both individual consumers and corporate clients. Its offerings e...
How the Company Makes Money
Atlantic Union Bankshares primarily makes money through a traditional bank model centered on (1) net interest income and (2) noninterest income. Net interest income is generated by earning interest and fees on loans and other interest-earning asse...
Atlantic Union Bankshares Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 21, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 22, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented multiple strong operating and capital highlights: robust loan growth, improving margins, disciplined expense management, excellent credit metrics (net charge-offs 3 bps; ACL 115 bps), tangible book value and CET1 improvement, and continued share repurchase capacity. Offsetting risks are concentrated in funding: a shift toward higher-cost interest-bearing deposits and elevated deposit competition led to higher deposit costs (spot cost ~1.95%; new interest-bearing deposits ~3%–3.5%), necessitating modest borrowings at quarter-end and prompting a tightened NII/NIM outlook. Credit quality issues were limited and described as isolated. Overall, positives (loan growth, profitability, capital generation, and asset quality) materially outweigh the funding/mix headwinds.Positive Updates
Strong Loan Growth
Loans held for investment ended at ~$28.7B, average loans $28.2B; average loan growth ~6% annualized in Q2 and period-end loans rose ~10.4% annualized Q1→Q2; year-to-date annualized loan growth 6.4%; company expects year-end loans of $29–$30B.
Negative Updates
Deposit Mix Shift and Funding Pressure
Company reported increased inflows into higher-yielding interest-bearing products, pressuring funding costs; spot deposit cost was ~1.95% in June and new interest-bearing deposits are running ~3.0%–3.5%, contributing to a downward update to NII guidance and tighter NIM outlook.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Loan Growth
Loans held for investment ended at ~$28.7B, average loans $28.2B; average loan growth ~6% annualized in Q2 and period-end loans rose ~10.4% annualized Q1→Q2; year-to-date annualized loan growth 6.4%; company expects year-end loans of $29–$30B.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Atlantic Union’s updated 2026 guidance targets year‑end loans of $29–$30 billion and deposits of $31–$32 billion, with the allowance for credit losses projected to remain 115–120 bps and net charge‑offs lowered to 5–10 bps; full‑year fully tax‑equivalent net interest income is guided to $1.32–$1.33 billion with a tightened FTE NIM range of 3.90%–3.95% (assumes a 25 bp Fed hike in September and stable term rates), PAA expected ~1.40%–1.50% (midpoint ~145 bps), noninterest income $22–$30 million, adjusted operating noninterest expense $742–$752 million, CET1 management in a 10.0%–10.5% range (Q2 CET1 10.41%), plan to complete the remaining ~$240 million buyback authorization after repurchasing ~$10 million (avg $37.76), and an expectation to grow tangible book value per share roughly 12% in 2026; management also models ~50% beta on interest‑bearing products (40% overall) with the Sept hike delivering <1 bp full‑year NIM impact (≈3 bp benefit in Q4).Atlantic Union Bankshares Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
66
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.22B | 2.03B | 1.35B | 1.05B | 778.96M | 711.16M |
| Gross Profit | 1.39B | 1.23B | 767.33M | 670.27M | 683.76M | 730.95M |
| EBITDA | 475.96M | 381.05M | 295.11M | 280.86M | 325.39M | 369.49M |
| Net Income | 346.06M | 273.71M | 209.13M | 201.82M | 234.51M | 263.92M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 37.32B | 37.59B | 24.59B | 21.17B | 20.46B | 20.06B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 451.37M | 4.43B | 2.79B | 2.60B | 3.06B | 4.28B |
| Total Debt | 1.30B | 1.50B | 534.62M | 1.31B | 1.71B | 506.59M |
| Total Liabilities | 32.26B | 32.58B | 21.44B | 18.61B | 18.09B | 17.35B |
| Stockholders Equity | 5.05B | 5.01B | 3.14B | 2.56B | 2.37B | 2.71B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.28B | 85.44M | 301.06M | 272.94M | 416.82M | 328.39M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.30B | 97.85M | 308.46M | 278.05M | 419.67M | 337.79M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -777.39M | -268.17M | -295.69M | -603.28M | -1.28B | -345.44M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.17B | 169.61M | -36.83M | 383.42M | 375.18M | 316.86M |
Atlantic Union Bankshares Risk Analysis
Atlantic Union Bankshares disclosed 56 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Atlantic Union Bankshares reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Atlantic Union Bankshares Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $5.03B | 18.69 | 14.00% | 2.28% | 9.67% | 9.32% | |
77 Outperform | $5.77B | 13.00 | 22.32% | ― | 12.54% | 13.67% | |
74 Outperform | $6.02B | 12.67 | 9.68% | 3.43% | 35.21% | 61.65% | |
74 Outperform | $6.25B | 14.95 | 9.61% | 2.49% | -3.12% | -5.31% | |
70 Outperform | $5.87B | 15.74 | 9.25% | 0.91% | 1.41% | -2.55% | |
69 Neutral | $6.68B | 13.20 | 9.39% | 3.15% | 7.90% | 29.58% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% |
* Financial Sector Average
AUB
Atlantic Union Bankshares
42.77
12.48
41.19%
ABCB
Ameris Bancorp
88.19
22.27
33.78%
AX
Axos Financial
103.66
18.13
21.20%
FFIN
First Financial Bankshares
35.42
1.87
5.57%
HWC
Hancock Whitney
77.76
20.56
35.94%
UBSI
United Bankshares
48.91
14.46
41.98%
Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Atlantic Union Bankshares Completes Subordinated Notes Offering
Positive
Jul 30, 2026
On July 30, 2026, Atlantic Union Bankshares completed a $250 million underwritten public offering of 6.25% fixed-to-floating rate subordinated notes due August 1, 2036, issued under an existing subordinated indenture. The unsecured notes pay a fix...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Atlantic Union Bankshares Announces New Subordinated Notes Offering
Positive
Jul 28, 2026
On July 27, 2026, Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation entered into an underwriting agreement with Keefe, Bruyette Woods, Inc. and Piper Sandler Co. to offer $250 million of 6.25% fixed-to-floating rate subordinated notes due 2036 at par, with ...
Private Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Atlantic Union Bankshares Plans Subordinated Notes Offering
Neutral
Jul 27, 2026
On July 27, 2026, Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation filed a preliminary prospectus supplement as part of a shelf registration to support a proposed offering of a new series of Fixed-to-Floating Rate Subordinated Notes due 2036. Management prep...
Dividends
Atlantic Union Bankshares Declares Quarterly Common Dividend
Positive
Jul 23, 2026
On July 23, 2026, Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation announced that its Board of Directors declared a quarterly dividend of $0.37 per share of common stock, matching the second quarter of 2026 and representing an 8.8% increase from the third qu...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Atlantic Union Bankshares Issues Q2 2026 Investor Update
Neutral
Jul 22, 2026
On July 22, 2026, Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation released a fixed income investor presentation that provides preliminary unaudited financial information and management’s expectations for the second quarter of 2026. The company emphasi...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Atlantic Union Bankshares posts strong Q2 2026 results
Positive
Jul 21, 2026
Atlantic Union Bankshares reported strong second-quarter 2026 results, posting net income available to common shareholders of $158.0 million, or $1.11 per share, and adjusted operating earnings of $134.0 million, or $0.94 per share. Management cit...
Financial Disclosures
Atlantic Union Bankshares schedules Q2 2026 earnings release
Neutral
Jun 30, 2026
On June 30, 2026, Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation announced plans to release its second quarter 2026 financial results before the market opens on Tuesday, July 21, 2026. The timing underscores the company’s regular quarterly disclosure...
Business Operations and Strategy
Atlantic Union Bankshares to Present at Morgan Stanley Conference
Positive
Jun 4, 2026
Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation announced on June 4, 2026, that its senior management will participate in a fireside chat at the Morgan Stanley US Financials Conference on Wednesday, June 10, 2026, with the session scheduled for 4:00 p.m. ED...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Atlantic Union Bankshares announces chief credit officer retirement
Neutral
Jun 3, 2026
Atlantic Union Bank announced on June 3, 2026, that longtime executive vice president and chief credit officer Doug Woolley, who has served the bank for more than 21 years and held the chief credit role since 2016, plans to retire effective April ...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
Atlantic Union Bankshares Shareholders Approve Governance Modernization Measures
Positive
May 6, 2026
Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation reported that shareholders at the May 5, 2026 annual meeting approved amendments to its articles of incorporation eliminating supermajority voting requirements for removing directors and for future charter ame...
Stock BuybackDividends
Atlantic Union Announces $250 Million Share Repurchase, Dividends
Positive
May 5, 2026
Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation, a regional banking holding company serving Mid-Atlantic markets with retail banking, equipment finance, investment and capital markets services, continues to leverage its diversified financial platform across...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
Atlantic Union Bankshares Updates Shareholders at 2026 Meeting
Neutral
May 5, 2026
Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation disclosed that certain executive officers are scheduled to present to shareholders at the company’s Annual Meeting of Shareholders on May 5, 2026, and made their presentation slides available through an ...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Atlantic Union Bankshares Divests Bearing Insurance Group Stake
Positive
May 1, 2026
On May 1, 2026, Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation completed the sale of its indirect subsidiary Union Insurance Group, LLC’s interest in Bearing Insurance Group, LLC to an unaffiliated third party, effective the same date. The company ex...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Atlantic Union Highlights Strategy in New Q2 2026 Presentation
Neutral
May 1, 2026
Atlantic Union Bankshares has released an investor presentation for use by management during meetings with investors, analysts and other stakeholders in the second quarter of 2026, covering the period from May to June 2026. The materials, availabl...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.