Axos Financial (AX)
NYSE:AX
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Axos Financial
(NYSE:AX)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$96.00
▼(-2.00% Downside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:05/05/26
The score is driven by solid fundamentals (profitability, balance-sheet strength, and cash conversion) and supportive earnings-call outlook (loan growth and expanded deposit funding). These positives are tempered by a weak technical setup and a notable TTM financial consistency concern that warrants validation.
Positive Factors
Digital‑first model & AI
Axos’s digital-first model and material AI adoption (>500 users, AI driving much code) create a scalable, low‑fixed‑cost distribution advantage. Over 2–6 months this supports higher operating leverage, lower branch expenses, faster product rollout, and durable customer acquisition efficiency versus brick‑and‑mortar peers.
Negative Factors
TTM income‑statement inconsistency
A severe TTM revenue drop and anomalous margins create meaningful uncertainty about the current earnings run‑rate. This inconsistency impairs trend analysis and forecasting, raising the risk that recent headline metrics reflect reporting or one‑off distortions rather than sustainable operating performance.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Digital‑first model & AI
Axos’s digital-first model and material AI adoption (>500 users, AI driving much code) create a scalable, low‑fixed‑cost distribution advantage. Over 2–6 months this supports higher operating leverage, lower branch expenses, faster product rollout, and durable customer acquisition efficiency versus brick‑and‑mortar peers.
Read all positive factors
Axos Financial Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Axos Financial (AX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.90B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)400.68K
Price to Earnings (P/E)9.7
Beta (1Y)1.10
Revenue Growth8.53%
EPS Growth12.29%
CountryUS
Employees1,781
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)8.42
Shares Outstanding56,884,636
10 Day Avg. Volume350,037
30 Day Avg. Volume400,683
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-3.72
Price to Book (P/B)1.61
Price to Sales (P/S)2.24
P/FCF Ratio9.91
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.34
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.12
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.99
Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.24
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$106.67Price Target Upside8.89% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)8.74
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.47B
Axos Financial Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Axos Financial, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides consumer and business banking products in the United States. It operates through Banking Business and Securities Business segments. The company offers deposits products, including cons...
How the Company Makes Money
Axos Financial primarily earns money through banking spread income and fee-based financial services. (1) Net interest income: The core earnings driver is the difference between interest income earned on loans and investment securities and the inte...
Axos Financial Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 30, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlights multiple strong operational and financial achievements: double‑digit growth in net interest income, EPS and deposits; robust loan originations and pipeline; strategic deposit acquisitions providing funding and liquidity; improving profitability metrics and disciplined reserving. Offsetting items include a meaningful sequential NIM decline driven partly by transient purchased‑loan effects and fewer days in the quarter, a quarter‑specific C&I credit loss that raised provisions and charge‑offs, and modestly higher noninterest expenses. Overall, the positives — including scalable loan pipelines, strong deposit growth, strategic acquisitions and solid capital/credit reserves — outweigh the contained headwinds, which management describes as manageable and largely idiosyncratic.Positive Updates
Double‑Digit Earnings and EPS Growth
Net income of approximately $124.7 million for Q3 FY2026, up 18.5% year‑over‑year; diluted EPS $2.15, up 18.7% year‑over‑year.
Negative Updates
Sequential Net Interest Margin Compression
Reported NIM declined to 4.57% from 4.94% in prior quarter (≈37 bps decrease); excluding FDIC‑purchased loan prepayments and calendar day impact, NIM down roughly in line with prior guidance (~10 bps); FDIC purchased loan accretion impact has dwindled to ~5 bps.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Double‑Digit Earnings and EPS Growth
Net income of approximately $124.7 million for Q3 FY2026, up 18.5% year‑over‑year; diluted EPS $2.15, up 18.7% year‑over‑year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided to low- to mid‑teens annual organic loan growth and said reported net interest margin should stay roughly flat on an organic basis (Q3 NIM was 4.57% vs. 4.94% in Q2, with FDIC‑purchased loan accretion now ~5 bps and an estimated ~5 bps deposit‑purchase premium impact), pointing to funding from the $2.3B Jenius deposit acquisition (conversion next month) and a pending ~$3.2B Capital One IRA/CD deposit deal; they reiterated a targeted allowance of ~1.3%–1.4% of loans, noted provision for credit losses of $41M this quarter (driven by a ~$20M specific C&I reserve), and a robust loan pipeline of ~$2.6B (including $611M SFR jumbo, $103M multifamily/small commercial, $83M auto/consumer and $1.7B commercial), while highlighting key quarter metrics to frame guidance: nearly $700M net loan growth linked quarter, $5.1B of investment originations (ex‑SFR warehouse), average loan yields of 7.23% (non‑purchased) and 12.39% (purchased), new loan rates ~6.9% SFR/C&I, 6.7% multifamily and 7.8% auto, noninterest income $86M (includes $22M legal settlement), noninterest expense ~$186M, diluted EPS $2.15 (+18.7% YoY), ROE >16%, ROA 1.8%, net charge‑offs 31 bps (8 bps ex one large C&I charge‑off), NPA 62 bps, ACL to nonaccruals 192.2%, and an expected annual tax rate of ~26%–27%.Axos Financial Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
82
Very Positive
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.10B | 1.93B | 1.77B | 1.26B | 757.91M | 711.97M |
| Gross Profit | 1.31B | 1.19B | 1.04B | 865.93M | 681.59M | 609.10M |
| EBITDA | 708.00M | 642.41M | 662.57M | 455.13M | 364.56M | 336.19M |
| Net Income | 476.10M | 432.91M | 450.01M | 307.17M | 240.72M | 215.71M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 29.25B | 24.78B | 22.86B | 20.35B | 17.46B | 14.27B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.57B | 2.00B | 2.12B | 2.47B | 1.47B | 902.96M |
| Total Debt | 2.82B | 372.67M | 415.68M | 451.78M | 562.74M | 574.86M |
| Total Liabilities | 26.18B | 22.10B | 20.56B | 18.43B | 15.81B | 12.86B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.07B | 2.68B | 2.29B | 1.92B | 1.64B | 1.40B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 426.13M | 436.12M | 269.52M | 166.49M | 195.12M | 402.14M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 447.92M | 490.33M | 305.48M | 196.71M | 216.62M | 412.58M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.85B | -1.84B | -2.59B | -2.40B | -2.78B | -866.77M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 3.93B | 1.34B | 2.09B | 3.01B | 3.10B | -458.56M |
Axos Financial Technical Analysis
Negative
97.96
Price Trends
88.71
Negative
90.77
Negative
87.77
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.81
Positive
44.50
Neutral
74.35
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 97.96 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 87.93, above the 50-day MA of 88.71, and above the 200-day MA of 87.77, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.81 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.50 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 74.35 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AX.
Axos Financial Risk Analysis
Axos Financial disclosed 50 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Axos Financial reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Axos Financial Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | $4.62B | 14.74 | 14.20% | 2.42% | 10.27% | 13.77% | |
73 Outperform | $5.70B | 11.96 | 10.81% | 1.02% | 0.32% | 17.91% | |
71 Outperform | $5.38B | 10.37 | 6.99% | 3.83% | 60.27% | 7.08% | |
69 Neutral | $4.90B | 9.65 | 16.60% | ― | 8.53% | 12.29% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
65 Neutral | $5.48B | 27.58 | 9.35% | 2.74% | -5.31% | -9.60% | |
52 Neutral | $5.77B | 65.25 | -0.69% | 0.31% | -24.45% | 91.93% |
* Financial Sector Average
AX
Axos Financial
86.07
16.49
23.70%
ABCB
Ameris Bancorp
84.69
24.14
39.88%
FFIN
First Financial Bankshares
32.24
-1.19
-3.55%
HWC
Hancock Whitney
67.50
14.86
28.23%
FLG
Flagstar Financial
13.85
2.07
17.55%
AUB
Atlantic Union Bankshares
37.56
9.92
35.88%
Axos Financial Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Axos Financial Highlights Digital Banking Strength in New Presentation
Positive
May 4, 2026
Axos Financial, Inc. began using a new investor presentation on May 5, 2026 that highlights its diversified business model, strong profitability metrics, and technology-driven strategy. The materials, dated May 4, 2026, emphasize Axos’s dist...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Axos Financial Expands Deposits with Jenius Bank Acquisition
Positive
May 4, 2026
On May 2, 2026, Axos Bank, the digital banking subsidiary of Axos Financial, Inc., completed the acquisition of all U.S. consumer deposits of Jenius Bank, a digital banking business of SMBC MANUBANK. The transaction, executed under a Purchase and ...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Axos Financial to Acquire Capital One IRA Deposits
Positive
Apr 23, 2026
On April 22, 2026, Axos Bank agreed to acquire approximately $3.2 billion in individual retirement account deposits from Capital One, covering traditional and Roth IRAs held in savings and certificate of deposit accounts, along with related assets...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Axos Financial Gains Approval for Strategic Deposit Acquisition
Positive
Mar 23, 2026
Axos Bank, a subsidiary of Axos Financial, Inc., received approval on March 19, 2026, from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency for a planned deposit acquisition previously outlined in a February 12, 2026, regulatory filing. The company e...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Axos Financial to Acquire Jenius Bank Consumer Deposits
Positive
Feb 12, 2026
On February 12, 2026, Axos Bank entered into an agreement with SMBC MANUBANK to acquire approximately $2.6 billion of U.S. consumer deposits from Jenius Bank, SMBC’s digital banking division. Under the deal, Axos will receive cash equal to t...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.