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Axos Financial (AX)
NYSE:AX

Axos Financial (AX) AI Stock Analysis

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AX

Axos Financial

(NYSE:AX)

Rating:80Outperform
Price Target:
$82.00
▼(-1.42%Downside)
Axos Financial receives a strong overall stock score due to its robust financial performance, attractive valuation, and positive corporate developments. The technical analysis indicates a positive trend, and the earnings call further supports growth prospects, despite some minor challenges. The company's strategic initiatives and strong operational efficiency position it well for future growth.
Positive Factors
Earnings
AX's 3Q FY25 numbers came in above Street estimates on the top and bottom line, as a stronger NIM, better fee income, and lower SG&A all were key ingredients in producing a good quarter.
Growth Prospects
AX is seen as a long-term winner in the digital banking space, with expected impressive loan growth due to creative structuring and quick decision-making.
Valuation
With shares trading at a discount to peers, the risk-reward is viewed as skewed to the upside.
Negative Factors
Market Volatility
AX resumed its share repurchase program in response to the recent market volatility, returning $58.3 million to shareholders.

Axos Financial (AX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Axos Financial Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAxos Financial, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides consumer and business banking products in the United States. It operates through Banking Business and Securities Business segments. The company offers deposits products, including consumer and business checking, demand, savings, time deposit, money market, zero balance, and insured cash sweep accounts. It also provides single family, multifamily, and commercial mortgage loans; commercial real estate secured loans; commercial and industrial non-real estate, asset-backed, lines of credit, and term loans; automobile loans; fixed rate term unsecured loans; and other loans, such as structure settlements, small business administration consumer loans, and securities-backed loans. In addition, the company offers ACH origination, wire transfer, commercial check printing, business bill pay and account transfer; remote deposit capture, mobile deposit, lockbox, merchant, and online payment portal; concierge banking; mobile and text messaging banking; and payment services, as well as debit and credit cards, and digital wallets. Further, it provides disclosed clearing services; back-office services, such as record keeping, trade reporting, accounting, general back-office support, securities and margin lending, reorganization assistance, and custody of securities; and financing to brokerage customers. The company was formerly known as BofI Holding, Inc. and changed its name to Axos Financial, Inc. in September 2018. Axos Financial, Inc. was incorporated in 1999 and is based in Las Vegas, Nevada.
How the Company Makes MoneyAxos Financial makes money through various revenue streams primarily centered around its banking operations. The company earns interest income from loans provided to consumers and businesses, which is a major component of its revenue. Additionally, Axos generates non-interest income from service fees, mortgage banking activities, and wealth management services. By maintaining a focus on digital banking, Axos reduces operational costs and enhances profitability. Strategic partnerships and technological innovations also play a vital role in expanding its customer base and increasing revenue, although specific partnership details are not disclosed.

Axos Financial Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 30, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: 31.03%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Axos Financial demonstrated solid loan growth and increases in key financial metrics such as book value per share and returns on equity and assets. However, challenges such as a decline in net interest margin and increased net charge-offs were noted. The company remains optimistic about growth opportunities, particularly in its securities business.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Net Loan Growth
Axos Financial generated over $700 million of net loan growth linked quarter, with fund finance, equipment leasing, and lender finance showing strong originations and net loan growth.
Increase in Book Value Per Share
The company reported a 19% year-over-year increase in book value per share.
High Returns on Equity and Assets
Axos Financial reported a 16% return on average common equity and a 1.8% return on average assets for the quarter.
Net Interest Income Growth
Net interest income for the quarter was $275 million, up 5.3% from the prior year period.
Improvement in Nonaccrual Loans
Total nonaccrual loans declined by $66.5 million linked quarter, improving the nonaccrual loans to total loan ratio from 1.26% to 89 basis points.
Securities Business Growth
Pre-tax income for the Securities business segment increased by 23.6% year-over-year to $9.1 million.
Negative Updates
Net Interest Margin Decline
Net interest margin was 4.78% for the quarter, down 5 basis points from the previous year.
Increase in Net Charge-Offs
Net annualized charge-offs to average loans increased to 9 basis points from 7 basis points in the previous year.
Loan Yield Pressure
Average loan yields for the quarter ended March 31, 2025, was 7.99%, down from 8.37% in the prior quarter.
Company Guidance
During the Axos Financial Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Call, the company reported several key financial metrics. Notably, the net loan growth was over $700 million for the quarter, with a stable net interest margin of 4.78%. The book value per share increased by 19% year-over-year, and the return on average common equity was 16%, with a return on average assets at 1.8%. Net interest income rose to $275 million, a 5.3% increase from the same period last year. The company also repurchased approximately $28 million of common stock during the quarter and an additional $30.3 million worth in April. Other highlights included a slight increase in noninterest expenses, which rose by only 0.6% from the previous quarter, and a decrease in total nonaccrual loans by $66.5 million, improving the nonaccrual loans to total loan ratio to 89 basis points. Axos also reported a net income of approximately $105.2 million, with a diluted EPS of $1.81. The company anticipates maintaining a consolidated net interest margin in the range of 4.25% to 4.35% and expects annual loan growth in the high single-digit to low teens range.

Axos Financial Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Axos Financial exhibits strong financial performance, highlighted by robust revenue and profit growth, low financial leverage, and efficient cash flow generation. The company maintains a high net profit margin and solid EBIT and EBITDA margins, indicating good operational efficiency. However, the equity ratio is somewhat low, suggesting a higher reliance on liabilities.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Axos Financial shows a strong income statement with consistent revenue growth and improving profitability metrics. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) gross profit margin is 60.35%, and the net profit margin is 22.12%, both indicating robust operational efficiency. Revenue has grown significantly over the years, with a 52.69% increase from 2022 to TTM, highlighting a strong growth trajectory. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also solid at 31.19% and 32.67%, respectively, reflecting effective cost management.
Balance Sheet
75
Positive
The balance sheet of Axos Financial demonstrates a stable financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.17, suggesting low financial leverage. The company's return on equity (ROE) is impressive at 16.4%, indicating effective use of equity to generate profits. However, the equity ratio is somewhat lower at 10.86%, which could imply a higher reliance on liabilities to finance assets. Overall, the balance sheet reflects a healthy financial structure with manageable debt levels.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
Axos Financial's cash flow statement exhibits strong cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.82 for TTM, showing good conversion of income to cash. The free cash flow has grown by 26.31% from 2024 to TTM, indicating robust cash flow growth. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.8, demonstrating efficient cash flow management. Overall, the cash flow position is strong and supports the company's growth initiatives.
BreakdownTTMJun 2024Jun 2023Jun 2022Jun 2021Jun 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.93B1.77B1.26B757.91M711.97M717.62M
Gross Profit1.16B1.04B865.93M681.59M609.10M530.19M
EBITDA630.81M662.57M455.13M364.56M336.19M297.62M
Net Income427.11M450.01M307.17M240.72M215.71M183.44M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets23.98B22.86B20.35B17.46B14.27B13.85B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments2.08B2.12B2.47B1.47B902.96M1.94B
Total Debt437.43M415.68M451.78M562.74M574.86M478.29M
Total Liabilities21.38B20.56B18.43B15.81B12.86B12.62B
Stockholders Equity2.60B2.29B1.92B1.64B1.40B1.23B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow307.84M269.52M166.49M195.12M402.14M271.79M
Operating Cash Flow350.75M305.48M196.71M216.62M412.58M284.12M
Investing Cash Flow-1.43B-2.59B-2.40B-2.78B-866.77M-1.35B
Financing Cash Flow987.27M2.09B3.01B3.10B-458.56M2.16B

Axos Financial Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price83.18
Price Trends
50DMA
70.40
Positive
100DMA
67.31
Positive
200DMA
69.34
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
2.53
Negative
RSI
78.86
Negative
STOCH
90.80
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 83.18 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 73.49, above the 50-day MA of 70.40, and above the 200-day MA of 69.34, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.53 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 78.86 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 90.80 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AX.

Axos Financial Risk Analysis

Axos Financial disclosed 43 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Axos Financial reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Axos Financial Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (67)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
AXAX
80
Outperform
$4.42B10.6717.80%15.93%0.17%
76
Outperform
$4.57B12.3010.19%1.24%7.16%31.69%
AUAUB
75
Outperform
$4.65B14.957.30%4.35%26.09%-19.05%
72
Outperform
$4.24B19.3314.14%1.49%11.42%7.58%
ASASB
69
Neutral
$4.16B29.463.23%3.77%0.21%-12.02%
67
Neutral
$16.85B11.659.71%3.90%11.61%-9.60%
64
Neutral
$3.68B45.614.22%8.63%8.99%3.89%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AX
Axos Financial
83.18
26.50
46.75%
ABCB
Ameris Bancorp
66.31
17.97
37.17%
ASB
Associated Banc-Corp
25.09
5.49
28.01%
BANF
BancFirst
127.52
43.39
51.57%
TFSL
TFS Financial
13.09
1.75
15.43%
AUB
Atlantic Union Bankshares
33.19
1.95
6.24%

Axos Financial Corporate Events

Financial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Axos Financial Faces $4M Tax Asset Impairment
Neutral
Jul 1, 2025

On June 30, 2025, the State of California enacted a new fiscal year 2026 budget that altered the apportionment of multi-state income for financial institutions, prompting Axos Financial to remeasure its deferred tax assets and liabilities. This resulted in a one-time non-cash impairment of approximately $4 million, which will be recognized in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025. The change is expected to reduce the company’s effective tax rate by about 3% for fiscal years ending June 30, 2026, and beyond, potentially benefiting Axos Financial’s future financial performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (AX) stock is a Buy with a $90.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Axos Financial stock, see the AX Stock Forecast page.

Stock Buyback
Axos Financial Expands Stock Repurchase Program by $100M
Neutral
May 12, 2025

On May 8, 2025, Axos Financial, Inc. announced a $100 million increase to its common stock repurchase program, adding to the $48 million remaining from a previous increase. The repurchase program allows the company to buy back shares at its discretion, with no set timeline, potentially impacting its capital allocation and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (AX) stock is a Buy with a $76.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Axos Financial stock, see the AX Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Axos Financial to Present New Investor Strategy
Positive
May 5, 2025

Axos Financial announced that it will use a new investor presentation at meetings starting May 6, 2025. The company highlights its strong performance metrics, including high return on equity and efficiency ratio, compared to peers. Axos is focused on sustained growth through diversified lending and deposit strategies, technology synergies, and new business initiatives. The company has demonstrated strong credit performance with low charge-off ratios and continues to expand its deposit base significantly, transforming its deposit mix over the years.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jun 20, 2025