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Asure (ASUR)
NASDAQ:ASUR
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Asure
(NASDAQ:ASUR)
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Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
$8.50
▲(4.04% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/03/26
The score is anchored by improving financial performance—especially the 2025 free-cash-flow inflection and strong gross margins—offset by still-weak GAAP profitability and higher leverage. The latest earnings call adds meaningful support via upbeat 2026 guidance, backlog visibility, and expanding adjusted EBITDA, while technicals are mixed and valuation remains constrained by a negative P/E and no dividend.
Positive Factors
Free cash flow rebound (2025)
2025's operating cash flow (~$22M) and free cash flow (~$21M) demonstrate the company can convert revenue into durable cash after prior volatility. Reliable cash generation funds sales expansion, R&D/capitalized product investments, debt service, and M&A optionality, improving the company's ability to sustain growth and work toward consistent GAAP profitability if maintained.
High gross margins and adjusted EBITDA expansion
Sustained gross margins (~67–72%) coupled with rapid adjusted EBITDA margin expansion (full-year 23%, Q4 29%) reflect scalable SaaS economics and operational leverage. If the company sustains these unit economics and AI/product productivity gains, margin improvement underpins reinvestment, higher operating leverage, and a credible path to the company's medium-term ~30% adjusted EBITDA target.
Large recurring base, backlog and product cross-sell
A sizeable recurring revenue base ($127.3M) plus a ~$100M contracted backlog gives visible near-term conversion and revenue runway. Early Asure Central adoption and higher attach rates increase customer lifetime value and cross-sell, improving churn economics and making growth more durable through deeper product penetration across ~100,000 clients.
Negative Factors
Persistent GAAP net losses
Despite adjusted-margin gains, the company reported a full-year GAAP net loss in 2025. Continued reliance on non-GAAP measures means GAAP profitability and retained-earnings restoration are not yet secured; durable shareholder value requires converting adjusted results into consistent GAAP profits across cycles, which remains an execution risk.
Elevated net debt and increased leverage
Rising leverage and net debt increase interest expense sensitivity and constrain financial flexibility for hiring, capex, or tuck-in M&A. Higher leverage amplifies downside if cash conversion weakens, making consistent free-cash-flow generation and deleveraging essential to maintain long-term investment-grade-like optionality and preserve capital allocation flexibility.
Recurring mix diluted by hardware & services
A meaningful increase in hardware and services revenue dilutes recurring SaaS economics and introduces margin variability. Management plans a multi-year shift to HaaS, but the slower transition and below-peak recurring mix delay steady, high-margin ARR growth and make forward margin and cash-flow profiles more dependent on successful product conversions and execution.
Asure (ASUR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$231.81M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)145.13K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.08
Revenue Growth14.54%
EPS Growth-33.11%
CountryUS
Employees621
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySoftware - Application
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.31
Shares Outstanding28,373,354
10 Day Avg. Volume106,089
30 Day Avg. Volume145,135
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-2.95
Price to Book (P/B)1.31
Price to Sales (P/S)1.84
P/FCF Ratio12.06
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.22
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.02
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.99
Enterprise Value/Ebitda20.43
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$13.43Price Target Upside64.36% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)0.91
Revenue Forecast (FY)$160.23M
Asure Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionAsure Software, Inc. provides cloud-based human capital management solutions the United States. It helps various small and mid-sized businesses to build productive teams to help them stay compliant and allocate resources to grow their business. The company's solutions include Asure Payroll & Tax, an integrated cloud-based solution automates regulations associated with payroll and taxes, including wages, benefits, overtime, garnishments, tips, direct deposits, and fair labor standard act, as well as federal, state, and local payroll taxes; Asure (human resource) HR, a cloud-based functionality that handles HR complexities, such as employee self-service that enable employees to access information, pay history, and company documents; and Asure Time & Attendance that provides cost savings and return on investment gains come in the form of strategic use of labor dollars and the elimination of time theft. It also provides HR services that offers services comprising on-demand HR resource library, phone and email support for any HR issues, and compliance and policy updates; support for strategic HR decision making; and HR outsourcing solution, as well as data integration with related third-party systems, such as 401(k), benefits, and insurance provider systems. Asure Software, Inc. was incorporated in 1985 and is headquartered in Austin, Texas.
How the Company Makes MoneyAsure makes money primarily by providing (1) payroll and payroll tax processing services and (2) subscription access to its cloud HCM software, with additional revenue from related HR and compliance service offerings. A significant portion of revenue is generated when clients run payroll: Asure charges recurring fees tied to pay runs and/or employee counts and provides add-on services such as payroll tax filing and payment, year-end tax forms, and compliance-related support. The company also earns recurring subscription revenue for access to its software modules (e.g., HR, time & attendance, and related HCM functionality), typically billed monthly or annually. Additional revenue can come from implementation, onboarding, and other professional services associated with deploying and supporting its solutions. Specific information on any significant partnerships or their revenue contribution is null.
Asure Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented strong operational and financial momentum: meaningful revenue growth (17% FY), robust Q4 performance (28% YoY), sizable adjusted EBITDA improvement (+42% FY, +82% Q4) and clear product/AI-driven initiatives (Asure Central, Luna, AsureWorks) that are already improving attach rates and efficiency. Management provided constructive 2026 guidance and medium-term targets while acknowledging near-term margin pressure from hardware/non-recurring revenue (Latham integration), a 2025 GAAP net loss, and sensitivity of float income to interest-rate cuts. Overall, the positives—accelerating organic growth, margin expansion on an adjusted basis, backlog conversion visibility, AI-driven productivity gains, and a scalable cross-sell strategy—outweigh the challenges, though execution risks (hardware-to-HaaS transition, integration, and interest-rate impacts) remain and are being actively managed.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Full-Year Revenue Growth
Full-year 2025 revenue of $140.5M, up 17% year-over-year; management expects 2026 revenue of $159M–$162M (low end increased $1M) implying continued double-digit growth.
Quarterly Outperformance
Q4 2025 total revenue of $39.3M, up 28% year-over-year; Q4 recurring revenue $33.7M, up 18% year-over-year. Organic growth improved to 10% in Q4 (from 4% in Q3).
Margin and Profitability Progress (Non-GAAP)
Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 increased 82% to $11.4M (adjusted EBITDA margin 29%, up 900 bps year-over-year). Full-year adjusted EBITDA rose 42% to $32.0M with adjusted EBITDA margin 23% (up 400 bps). GAAP Q4 net income of $0.8M versus prior-year Q4 loss of $3.2M.
Recurring Revenue Base and Backlog
Full-year recurring revenue $127.3M, up 11% year-over-year. Contracted backlog ~ $100M (up 18% vs prior reference) with management expecting to convert ~41% of backlog in the next 12 months.
Product Adoption and Cross-Sell Momentum (Asure Central)
Asure Central (launched Oct 2025) adoption exceeded two-thirds of clients early on; number of payroll customers buying multiple products grew 10% in Q4 year-over-year, with management seeing improved attach rates across ~100,000 clients.
AI-led Efficiency and Product Innovation (Luna)
Launched Luna AI agent (over 50 live, auditable, permission-controlled actions). In first 90 days of Asure Central GA, Luna generated 80,000+ messages and avoided thousands of support interactions (estimated offset of ~3 client service reps). Internal AI use produced revenue/productivity gains (SDR discovery time reduced from ~1 hour to ~3 minutes; list-building agent created 1,000+ leads).
New Service Offering — AsureWorks
Introduced AsureWorks ASO model (managed payroll/compliance services). Management states clients who adopt managed payroll/compliance typically generate 2–3x revenue vs payroll-only clients, expanding share-of-wallet opportunities.
Sales & Acquisition Contributions
Sales results included a 35% increase in new bookings. Recent Latham acquisition contributed ~ $4.5M in the quarter (~$2.5M recurring, ~$2.0M hardware) and Q4 professional services & hardware revenue rose to $5.6M from $2.3M prior-year quarter.
Guidance and Medium-Term Targets
Q1 2026 revenue guidance of $41M–$43M and adjusted EBITDA $10M–$11M. Full-year 2026 revenue guidance $159M–$162M with adjusted EBITDA margins 23–25%. Management reiterated a medium-term target of $180M–$200M revenue and ~30% adjusted EBITDA (longer-term aspiration up to ~50% margins).
Balance Sheet and Cash Position
Ended 2025 with $25.2M cash and cash equivalents, providing liquidity to support strategic investments and sales expansion (while noting debt on balance sheet).
Negative Updates
Full-Year GAAP Loss and Mixed Profitability
Full-year 2025 net loss widened to $13.1M versus a $11.8M net loss in the prior year, despite Q4 GAAP profitability of $0.8M. Company forecasts moving toward consistent GAAP profitability but full-year GAAP results remain negative in 2025.
Gross Margin Pressure from Revenue Mix
GAAP gross margin for the full year was 68% versus 69% prior year; non-GAAP gross margin slipped to 73% from 74%—management cited increased lower-margin non-recurring sales (primarily Latham hardware) as the driver.
Hardware/Non-Recurring Revenue Dilution
Professional services and hardware revenue rose materially (Q4 $5.6M vs $2.3M prior-year Q4; FY $13.3M vs $5.3M prior), increasing lower-margin mix. Management expects to transition Latham hardware to HaaS over time but indicated the shift to higher recurring mix may not be complete until 2027.
Interest Rate Sensitivity and Float Revenue Decline
Float revenue was down slightly year-over-year due to prior federal funds rate reductions. Management modeled two additional rate cuts in 2026 which could further pressure float revenue, though increasing client fund balances may partially offset the impact.
Leverage and Cash/Debt Position
Debt totaled $67.6M against $25.2M cash as of 12/31/2025. While leverage supports M&A and growth, net debt levels present financial obligations (management estimated unlevered free cash flow in the mid-teens million range for 2026).
Recurring Revenue Concentration Not Fully Restored
Management expects recurring revenue to be in the low-90% range in 2026 (below prior peak) and believes move to a near-95% recurring model may not be achieved until 2027, introducing some near-term variability from professional services and implementation work.
Company Guidance
The company guided Q1 2026 revenue of $41–43M with Q1 adjusted EBITDA of $10–11M, and updated full‑year 2026 revenue to $159–162M (raising the low end by $1M) with adjusted EBITDA margins of 23–25% (implying adjusted EBITDA of roughly $36.6M–$40.5M); management expects double‑digit revenue growth and GAAP profitability in 2026, models two additional rate cuts next year, expects recurring revenue to be in the low‑90s percent of sales, plans software capex/capitalized R&D of about $15–16M, ended 2025 with $25.2M cash and $67.6M debt, holds a contracted backlog of ≈$100M (up 18%) with ~41% of that backlog expected to convert in the next 12 months, targets a 2026 salesforce of ~150 reps (from ~118 today), and expects mid‑teens unlevered free cash flow after ~ $6M of interest—while targeting a medium‑term $180–200M revenue range at ~30% adjusted EBITDA (with longer‑term margin upside).Asure Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Improving profile driven by a sharp 2025 cash flow rebound (operating cash flow ~$22M; free cash flow ~$21M) and strong gross margins (~67–72%), but profitability remains a key weakness with ongoing net losses and EBITDA weakness in 2024–2025. Balance sheet support is adequate, though leverage stepped up materially in 2025 (debt-to-equity ~0.38 vs ~0.09 in 2024), adding risk.Income Statement
Revenue growth re-accelerated in 2025 (up ~6% after being roughly flat in 2024), and gross margins remain strong (~67–72%), indicating solid underlying unit economics. However, profitability is still a key weakness: net losses persisted in most years (including 2022–2025), and the company remains EBITDA-negative in 2024–2025, with net margin still around -9% in 2025. Overall, the income statement shows improving scale and resilient gross profit, but an incomplete path to consistent operating profitability.46
Neutral
Balance Sheet
Leverage is moderate on paper, with debt-to-equity at ~0.38 in 2025, but it rose meaningfully versus 2024 (~0.09), indicating increased reliance on debt. Equity is sizable (~$198M in 2025) and assets increased, providing balance sheet support. The main weakness is continued negative returns on equity (loss-making), which limits the quality of the capital base despite acceptable leverage metrics.52
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash generation improved sharply in 2025, with operating cash flow of ~$22M and free cash flow of ~$21M, a major rebound from negative free cash flow in 2024. Free cash flow has been volatile historically (notably negative in 2020, 2021, and 2024), but the latest year shows strong conversion with free cash flow close to net loss in 2025, suggesting better working-capital and cash discipline. The key risk is consistency: prior-year swings imply cash flow durability still needs to be proven.68
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 140.54M | 119.79M | 119.08M | 95.83M | 76.06M |
| Gross Profit | 94.87M | 82.11M | 85.54M | 62.51M | 46.56M |
| EBITDA | 20.58M | -10.74M | 15.81M | 10.49M | 23.85M |
| Net Income | -13.13M | -11.77M | -9.21M | -14.47M | 3.19M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 542.23M | 436.64M | 443.87M | 419.91M | 433.25M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 25.24M | 21.43M | 30.32M | 17.01M | 13.43M |
| Total Debt | 80.02M | 17.73M | 10.44M | 43.22M | 41.32M |
| Total Liabilities | 344.43M | 239.32M | 252.21M | 274.84M | 275.00M |
| Stockholders Equity | 197.80M | 197.31M | 191.66M | 145.07M | 158.24M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 21.43M | -14.75M | 2.64M | 4.84M | -28.42M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 22.22M | 9.39M | 18.90M | 13.67M | 1.38M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -86.68M | -19.26M | -29.52M | -36.00M | -36.97M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 83.45M | -22.04M | 24.20M | -12.38M | -90.65M |
Asure Technical Analysis
Negative
8.17
Price Trends
8.90
Negative
8.69
Negative
8.83
Negative
Market Momentum
<0.01
Positive
40.53
Neutral
7.51
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ASUR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 8.17 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.64, below the 50-day MA of 8.90, and below the 200-day MA of 8.83, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.53 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 7.51 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ASUR.
Asure Risk Analysis
Asure disclosed 47 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Asure reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Asure Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
60 Neutral | $270.28M | 13.24 | -2.93% | ― | 0.25% | 92.10% | |
56 Neutral | $231.81M | ― | -6.71% | ― | 14.54% | -33.11% | |
46 Neutral | $157.86M | ― | -145.86% | ― | -9.86% | 0.87% | |
46 Neutral | $270.41M | -10.79 | -32.94% | ― | 6.33% | -66.34% | |
45 Neutral | $170.29M | -0.93 | -34.75% | ― | 14.22% | -141.64% |
* Technology Sector Average
ASUR
Asure
8.17
-1.90
-18.87%
EGHT
8X8
1.94
-0.22
-10.19%
NRDY
Nerdy
0.84
-0.74
-47.03%
WALD
Waldencast
1.33
-1.78
-57.23%
LAW
CS Disco
4.27
-0.20
-4.47%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.