Astrana Health (ASTH) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.23B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 564.75K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 54.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.98
• Revenue Growth: 68.17%
• EPS Growth: -85.42%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,900
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Medical - Care Facilities
• EPS (TTM): 0.12
• Shares Outstanding: 50,155,613
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 722,966
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 564,754
• PEG Ratio: -1.09
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.56
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.38
• P/FCF Ratio: 11.65
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.53
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.59
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.08
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 14.63
• 1Y Price Target: $35.75
• Price Target Upside: 92.31% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.25
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $3.97B

• Rating: 62 Neutral
• Price Target: $26.00 ▲(39.86% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/04/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/04/26

The score is primarily supported by solid cash flow generation and constructive forward guidance with clear operational drivers, but is held back by materially compressed profitability, increased leverage, and a premium valuation. Technicals are mixed, with better short-term trend but weaker long-term momentum.

Positive Factors

Free Cash Flow Generation

Strong and improving free cash flow with high conversion versus adjusted EBITDA provides durable internal funding for integration, working capital and deleveraging. Reliable cash generation supports execution of the growth plan, buybacks and capex without sole reliance on external financing.

Rapid Revenue Growth and Scale

Sustained double‑digit/top‑line growth and a 1.6M member base show scalable demand for Astrana's delegated care model. Larger scale improves payer/provider negotiating leverage and spreads fixed platform costs, strengthening long-term competitive position across new markets.

Shift to Full-Risk & Platform Leverage

Moving a large share of revenue to full‑risk contracts aligns incentives with cost and quality, increasing predictable revenue and upside from medical-cost outperformance. Combined with AI-driven automation and platform scale, this structurally improves margin capture over time.

Negative Factors

Compressed Profitability

Substantially compressed gross and net margins reduce the buffer against cost shocks and slow the pace at which revenue growth translates to durable profits. If medical cost trends or integration expenses persist, low margins could limit reinvestment and weaken returns on the enlarged capital base.

Elevated Leverage

Material net debt and ~2.6x leverage constrain financial flexibility during integration and downturns. Sustained deleveraging depends on both continued cash generation and margin recovery; failure to convert synergies or contain medical costs would prolong leverage-related constraints.

Regulatory & Enrollment Risk

Exposure to CMS risk‑model changes and assumed Medicaid/exchange disenrollment introduces durable revenue and reimbursement volatility. Changes to risk scores or enrollment trends can materially alter capitation benchmarks and margin outcomes across multiple years, stressing execution assumptions.

Astrana Health Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Astrana Health, Inc., Inc., a physician-centric technology-powered healthcare management company, provides medical care services in the United States. It operates through three segments: Care Partners, Care Delivery, and Care Enablement. The company is leveraging its proprietary population health management and healthcare delivery platform, operates an integrated, value-based healthcare model which empowers the providers in its network to deliver care to its patients. It offers care coordination services to patients, families, primary care physicians, specialists, acute care hospitals, alternative sites of inpatient care, physician groups, and health plans. The company's physician network consists of primary care physicians, specialist physicians and extenders, and hospitalists. It serves patients, primarily covered by private or public insurance, such as Medicare, Medicaid, and health maintenance organization plans; and non-insured patients. The company was formerly known as Apollo Medical Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Astrana Health, Inc. in February 2024. Astrana Health, Inc. was incorporated in 1985 and is headquartered in Alhambra, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Astrana Health generates revenue through multiple key streams, primarily from the sale of its therapeutics and diagnostic products to healthcare providers and institutions. The company also engages in strategic partnerships with pharmaceutical companies and research institutions, allowing for collaborative development and commercialization of new therapies, which can lead to shared revenue from product launches. Additionally, Astrana Health may receive funding through grants and research contracts aimed at advancing healthcare innovations. Licensing agreements for its proprietary technologies further contribute to its earnings, as the company can monetize its intellectual property by allowing other firms to use its innovations in exchange for royalties.

Astrana Health Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong and growing operating cash flow/free cash flow supports quality, but financials show a material profitability step-down (very thin TTM net margin) and higher recent leverage versus prior years, increasing risk if margins don’t recover.

Income Statement

Revenue growth has been strong over the past several years (including 2024 and TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months)), but profitability has weakened materially: gross, EBITDA, and EBIT margins have compressed versus 2021–2023 levels, and TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) net margin is very thin (~0.3%). Net income in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) is also well below 2023–2024 levels, indicating the growth is coming with higher costs and/or pricing pressure.

Balance Sheet

Equity has grown over time and the company still shows positive returns on equity, but balance sheet risk has increased in the most recent period: the debt-to-equity level in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) is notably higher than in 2021–2024, suggesting added leverage. Asset growth is substantial, but the lower TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) return on equity points to reduced efficiency/profitability on the larger capital base.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a relative strength: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow and free cash flow are both solid and growing, and free cash flow is large relative to reported earnings (reflecting strong cash conversion versus low net income). The main watch-out is that operating cash flow remains small relative to revenue, implying thin cash margins even though absolute dollars are healthy.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.18B	2.03B	1.39B	1.14B	773.91M
Gross Profit	295.78M	271.39M	214.96M	199.48M	177.77M
EBITDA	124.27M	141.84M	123.69M	112.08M	100.66M
Net Income	22.49M	43.15M	60.72M	45.17M	68.92M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.22B	1.35B	933.36M	966.21M	867.36M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	429.47M	290.83M	296.31M	293.59M	286.51M
Total Debt	1.08B	471.84M	321.01M	229.36M	200.98M
Total Liabilities	1.66B	840.73M	522.59M	407.67M	356.72M
Stockholders Equity	779.29M	712.72M	614.22M	542.56M	448.17M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	104.49M	44.17M	39.70M	59.19M	51.11M
Operating Cash Flow	114.60M	52.20M	68.23M	82.13M	70.33M
Investing Cash Flow	-539.00M	-192.40M	-65.52M	-7.11M	16.54M
Financing Cash Flow	569.35M	135.15M	3.42M	-20.09M	-47.75M

Astrana Health Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 18.59
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ASTH, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 18.59 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 22.47, below the 50-day MA of 23.54, and below the 200-day MA of 25.82, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.64 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.56 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 32.36 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ASTH.

Astrana Health Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
HCSG	73 Outperform	$1.42B	23.43	11.83%	―	6.26%	-19.33%
ASTH	62 Neutral	$1.23B	54.15	2.93%	―	68.17%	-85.42%
SEM	62 Neutral	$2.02B	12.54	5.57%	1.69%	-22.96%	-59.35%
USPH	62 Neutral	$1.18B	78.68	3.12%	2.25%	17.50%	154.28%
MD	54 Neutral	$1.62B	11.03	19.58%	―	-4.21%	―
AVAH	52 Neutral	$1.44B	32.50	-135.90%	―	15.48%	―
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%

Astrana Health Corporate Events

Astrana Health Updates Investor Presentation on Value-Based Strategy

On March 4, 2026, Astrana Health, Inc. updated its corporate investor presentation for use at conferences and meetings, highlighting its delegated financial model and role as a risk-bearing organization in value-based care. The materials describe how Astrana’s ecosystem keeps members within its network across payers, offers payer-like administrative services, and supports providers with care coordination to improve patient outcomes and cost control as it scales into new markets nationwide.

The presentation underscores Astrana’s focus on transforming the traditional fee-for-service healthcare status quo into accessible, high-quality, and coordinated care delivery. By emphasizing its platform for delegated risk, expanded national footprint, and use of non-GAAP performance metrics such as Adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow, the company signals its operational strategy and positioning to investors, payers, and providers in the competitive value-based care landscape.

The most recent analyst rating on (ASTH) stock is a Hold with a $28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Astrana Health stock, see the ASTH Stock Forecast page.

Astrana Health Reports Record 2025 Results, Expands Buyback

Astrana Health reported record 2025 results on March 2, 2026, with total revenue rising 56% to $3.18 billion, driven mainly by its Care Partners segment, while adjusted EBITDA increased 21% to $205.4 million and free cash flow reached $104.5 million; fourth‑quarter revenue climbed 43% to $950.5 million and adjusted EBITDA 50% to $52.5 million. The company disclosed a material weakness in internal controls related to acquisition and purchase accounting processes and will use a 15‑day extension for its 2025 Form 10‑K filing, but said the issue does not involve any material misstatement, and its board doubled the share repurchase authorization to $100 million after buying 633,844 shares in the fourth quarter, signaling confidence in cash generation and capital return capacity despite the control issue.

The most recent analyst rating on (ASTH) stock is a Hold with a $24.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Astrana Health stock, see the ASTH Stock Forecast page.

Astrana Health Updates Investor Presentation Highlighting National Expansion

On January 12, 2026, Astrana Health, Inc. updated the corporate investor presentation it uses for conferences and meetings, outlining its delegated financial and risk-bearing model that aims to replace what it characterizes as a broken U.S. healthcare status quo marked by poor provider and patient satisfaction, high costs, and limited coordinated care. The refreshed materials highlight Astrana’s expansion from a single market to 16 markets nationwide by 2025, its role in delivering payer-like administrative services, and how its care model is designed to improve access, quality, and patient outcomes, signaling continued growth of its national platform and deepening integration with providers and payers under value-based arrangements.

The most recent analyst rating on (ASTH) stock is a Hold with a $30.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Astrana Health stock, see the ASTH Stock Forecast page.