Astrana Health (ASTH) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.53B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 368.99K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 34.0
• Beta (1Y): 1.22
• Revenue Growth: 46.72%
• EPS Growth: -30.24%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,900
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 71
• Industry: Medical - Care Facilities
• EPS (TTM): 0.90
• Shares Outstanding: 50,119,700
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 317,434
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 368,985
• PEG Ratio: 0.80
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.85
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): -39.70
• P/FCF Ratio: 9.50
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $49.86
• Price Target Upside: 63.26% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8

Astrana Health's overall stock score reflects strong financial performance and strategic growth initiatives, offset by potential overvaluation and mixed technical indicators. The company's robust revenue growth and strategic acquisitions position it well for future growth, though challenges such as high integration costs and strategic investment expenses must be managed. The absence of a dividend yield may deter some investors.

Positive Factors

Acquisition Impact

Adding Prospect Health deepens Astrana Health's competitive edge in Southern California as a scaled entry point to a competitive Orange County.

Market Position

Astrana Health is viewed as a leading operator in the advanced primary care space, consistently delivering strong execution.

Strategic Investments

Unanticipated costs related to novel AI investments are expected to enhance margins over time.

Negative Factors

Financial Performance

Expected EBITDA for 2025 is below investor expectations, ranging from $170m to $190m.

Integration Risk

The price target for Astrana Health Inc. has been lowered to $40 to reflect elevated execution and integration risk.

Medicaid Risk

Medicaid risk is perceived as misunderstood, with potential financial impacts that could affect earnings.

Astrana Health Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Astrana Health (ASTH) is a leading healthcare company specializing in innovative medical solutions across various sectors, including pharmaceuticals, medical devices, and health technology. The company is dedicated to enhancing patient care and improving health outcomes through its cutting-edge products and services. Astrana Health's core offerings include a range of prescription medications, advanced medical devices, and a suite of digital health platforms designed to support healthcare professionals and patients alike.

How the Company Makes Money

Astrana Health makes money primarily through the sale of its pharmaceutical products and medical devices. The company generates revenue by developing and marketing prescription medications across multiple therapeutic areas, which are sold to healthcare providers, pharmacies, and directly to patients. Additionally, Astrana Health earns income from its medical devices segment, offering innovative solutions for various medical conditions. The company also derives revenue from its digital health platforms, which are subscription-based and provide healthcare providers with data-driven tools for patient management. Key partnerships with healthcare institutions and research organizations further enhance Astrana Health's revenue streams by enabling collaborative product development and market expansion.

Astrana Health Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Astrana Health demonstrates strong financial performance with robust revenue growth and profitability improvements. The balance sheet reflects increasing equity and controlled leverage, though monitoring is needed. Cash flow generation is solid, supporting growth initiatives effectively.

Income Statement

Astrana Health has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a significant increase from $370 million in 2020 to $2.03 billion in 2024, indicating a robust expansion trajectory. The gross profit margin has improved substantially since 2020, reflecting enhanced operational efficiency. However, the net profit margin is relatively modest, suggesting room for cost management improvements. Despite a slight decline in EBIT margin from 2022 to 2024, the overall EBIT and EBITDA margins remain healthy, supporting the company's profitability.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet is solid with a significant increase in stockholders' equity over the years, rising from $330 million in 2020 to $712 million in 2024. The debt-to-equity ratio has improved, reflecting a prudent approach to leveraging. However, the equity ratio indicates a moderate level of leverage, which requires monitoring to mitigate potential risks. Astrana Health's ability to maintain a strong cash position is a positive sign of financial stability.

Cash Flow

Astrana Health's cash flow from operations has remained positive, showing a capacity to generate sufficient cash to cover its capital expenditures. The free cash flow has consistently grown, demonstrating an effective cash management strategy. While the free cash flow to net income ratio indicates efficient conversion of profits into cash, the operating cash flow to net income ratio suggests potential improvements in operational cash flow generation.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
2.03B	1.39B	1.14B	773.91M	370.25M
	Gross Profit
2.03B	214.96M	199.48M	177.77M	21.70M
	EBIT
89.35M	84.61M	104.27M	98.18M	6.09M
	EBITDA
68.86M	123.69M	112.08M	100.66M	206.28M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
43.15M	60.72M	45.17M	68.92M	-23.75M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
161.18M	296.31M	293.59M	286.51M	261.17M
	Total Assets
937.20M	933.36M	966.21M	867.36M	817.49M
	Total Debt
35.27M	321.01M	229.36M	200.98M	260.56M
	Net Debt
-123.65M	27.21M	-58.66M	-32.11M	67.08M
	Total Liabilities
256.08M	522.59M	407.67M	356.72M	372.34M
	Stockholders Equity
712.72M	614.22M	542.56M	448.17M	330.82M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
44.17M	39.70M	59.19M	51.11M	45.00M
	Operating Cash Flow
52.20M	68.23M	82.13M	70.33M	46.16M
	Investing Cash Flow
-192.40M	-65.52M	-7.11M	16.54M	95.49M
	Financing Cash Flow
0.00	3.42M	-20.09M	-47.75M	-51.70M

Astrana Health Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 30.54
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ASTH, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 30.54 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 29.67, below the 50-day MA of 33.74, and below the 200-day MA of 43.38, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.59 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 45.84 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 51.25 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ASTH.

Astrana Health Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MOH	79 Outperform	$17.66B	15.80	27.07%	―	19.24%	8.57%
CVS	76 Outperform	$84.65B	18.36	6.07%	3.96%	4.02%	-43.51%
ASTH	73 Outperform	$1.53B	33.96	6.50%	―	46.72%	-30.24%
CI	73 Outperform	$88.12B	26.81	7.87%	1.72%	25.21%	-29.37%
HUM	67 Neutral	$31.93B	26.50	7.40%	1.34%	10.70%	-49.85%
UNH	65 Neutral	$472.03B	33.28	15.88%	1.58%	8.35%	-35.14%
Sector *	49 Neutral	$6.85B	0.81	-52.91%	2.50%	19.94%	1.20%

Astrana Health Corporate Events

Astrana Health Appoints New Chief Accounting Officer

On March 26, 2025, Astrana Health, Inc. appointed Glenn W. Sobotka as the new Chief Accounting Officer, replacing John Vong who will transition to a new role within the company. Mr. Sobotka brings over 25 years of experience in accounting and finance, having previously served in leadership roles at Arkos Health, Carbon Health, and agilon health. His appointment includes a comprehensive employment agreement with a base salary of $320,000, stock options, and eligibility for bonuses and long-term incentives. This strategic appointment is expected to strengthen Astrana Health’s financial leadership and support its operational goals.

Astrana Health Highlights Strategic Acquisition Plans

On March 10, 2025, Astrana Health updated its corporate presentation for use in conferences and meetings, highlighting its strategic focus on acquisitions, including the pending acquisition of certain assets of Prospect Medical Holdings, Inc. The company emphasizes its use of non-GAAP financial measures like Adjusted EBITDA to provide investors with insights into its operational performance. Astrana Health’s approach aims to transform healthcare delivery by building critical market density to ensure access to quality care, with a focus on reducing hospital admissions and improving clinical outcomes.

Astrana Health Updates Corporate Presentation for Conferences

On March 3, 2025, Astrana Health, Inc. announced an update to its corporate presentation for use in upcoming conferences and meetings. The company clarified that the information in the presentation will not be updated and is not considered filed under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, thus not subject to its liabilities.

Astrana Health Updates Corporate Presentation Amid Acquisition

Astrana Health, Inc. announced an update to its corporate presentation on January 14, 2025, which it plans to use at upcoming conferences and meetings. The company disclosed that on January 11, 2025, Prospect Medical Holdings, Inc. filed for bankruptcy, but the businesses and assets Astrana is acquiring are not affected by this filing, and the acquisition timeline remains unchanged.