Aspen Aerogels (ASPN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $475.79M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.23M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 35.3
• Beta (1Y): 1.96
• Revenue Growth: 51.90%
• EPS Growth: -685.60%
• Country: US
• Employees: 554
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 93
• Industry: Construction
• EPS (TTM): -3.67
• Shares Outstanding: 82,174,355
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,766,273
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,225,378
• PEG Ratio: 0.04
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.65
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -9.98
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.80
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.25
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.09
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 1.17
• 1Y Price Target: $8.50
• Price Target Upside: 41.20% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6

• Rating: 53 Neutral
• Price Target: $6.00 ▼(-0.33%Downside)

Aspen Aerogels' overall stock score is primarily affected by its mixed financial performance, with profitability and cash flow challenges being significant concerns. Technical indicators suggest a cautious outlook, while valuation metrics are unattractive due to negative earnings. Earnings call insights and corporate events provide some strategic positives, but are overshadowed by financial setbacks.

Positive Factors

Cash Flow

Strong free cash flow in the fourth quarter of 2024 with a cash balance of $228 million at the end of January.

Financial Performance

Aspen reported 4Q24 results that mostly beat consensus estimates, with total revenue up 46% annually and representing its fifth consecutive quarter of positive adjusted EBITDA.

OEM Partnerships

The 8th OEM award announced with Volvo trucks.

Negative Factors

EV Demand

Weaker EV demand results in a reset for 2025 with management electing to end construction at the Georgia plant.

Guidance and Visibility

Lower than expected first quarter 2025 guidance with shifting EV policy leading to a pause in providing annual guidance.

Rating Downgrade

The rating for Aspen Aerogels, Inc. was downgraded from Buy to Neutral due to low visibility on program needs and margin vulnerability.

Aspen Aerogels Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Aspen Aerogels, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and sells aerogel insulation products primarily for use in the energy infrastructure and building materials markets in the United States, Asia, Canada, Europe, and Latin America. The company offers PyroThin thermal barriers for use in lithium-ion batteries in electric vehicles and energy storage industries; Pyrogel XTE that reduces the risk of corrosion under insulation in energy infrastructure operating systems; Pyrogel HPS for applications within the power generation market; Pyrogel XTF to provide protection against fire; Cryogel Z for sub-ambient and cryogenic applications in the energy infrastructure market; and Spaceloft Subsea for use in pipe-in-pipe applications in offshore oil production. It also offers Spaceloft Grey and Spaceloft A2 for use in the building materials market; and Cryogel X201, which is used in designing cold systems, such as refrigerated appliances, cold storage equipment, and aerospace systems. The company was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Northborough, Massachusetts.

How the Company Makes Money

Aspen Aerogels generates revenue through the sale of its advanced aerogel insulation products. These products are primarily marketed to industries that benefit from high-efficiency insulation, such as oil and gas, chemical processing, and building construction. The company capitalizes on the increasing demand for energy-efficient and environmentally friendly insulation solutions. Additionally, Aspen Aerogels may engage in strategic partnerships and collaborations to enhance its product offerings and market reach, further contributing to its revenue streams. The company's earnings are influenced by factors such as technological advancements, regulatory standards promoting energy efficiency, and the overall growth in infrastructure development projects.

Aspen Aerogels Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Aspen Aerogels is on a positive financial trajectory, with strong revenue growth and improved profitability metrics, such as a gross profit margin of 40.4% and a positive net profit margin of 2.95%. The balance sheet is stable, with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.17. However, the company should focus on enhancing ROE and generating positive free cash flow to further strengthen financial health.

Income Statement

Aspen Aerogels has shown significant improvement in its financial performance over the TTM. The gross profit margin stands at 40.4%, indicating efficient production cost management. The net profit margin has turned positive to 2.95% from negative figures in previous years, reflecting improved overall profitability. Revenue growth rate is robust at 89.6%, showcasing strong top-line growth. EBIT and EBITDA margins are at 12.64% and 31.55% respectively, highlighting operational efficiency gains. Although past years showed losses, the current trajectory is positive.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a stable financial structure with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.17, indicating conservative leverage. Return on Equity (ROE) at 2.17% shows an initial positive return, though still modest. The equity ratio is strong at 68.65%, signifying a solid equity base. The company has been able to maintain a healthy cash position, aiding in financial stability. However, the company should continue to focus on improving ROE to enhance shareholder value.

Cash Flow

Aspen Aerogels has demonstrated improved cash flow management. The free cash flow growth rate has improved but remains negative, indicating ongoing investments or working capital needs. Operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.74, suggesting reasonable cash generation relative to income. Despite negative free cash flow, the company has been able to finance its operations through positive financing cash flow, likely from equity or debt issuance. Continued focus on generating positive free cash flow is recommended.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
452.70M	238.72M	180.36M	121.62M	100.27M
	Gross Profit
182.90M	56.92M	4.98M	9.94M	14.59M
	EBIT
54.53M	-49.20M	-79.25M	-40.60M	-21.57M
	EBITDA
51.46M	-22.31M	-65.77M	-25.81M	-11.37M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
13.38M	-45.81M	-86.23M	-27.88M	-11.85M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
220.88M	139.72M	281.33M	76.56M	16.50M
	Total Assets
895.14M	703.05M	646.57M	182.95M	97.42M
	Total Debt
197.38M	138.77M	126.66M	15.24M	8.31M
	Net Debt
-23.50M	-951.00K	-154.68M	-61.33M	-8.19M
	Total Liabilities
280.44M	214.99M	203.23M	54.55M	29.57M
	Stockholders Equity
614.71M	488.06M	447.44M	128.41M	67.85M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-40.71M	-218.07M	-272.37M	-32.41M	-13.34M
	Operating Cash Flow
45.55M	-42.61M	-94.40M	-18.63M	-9.92M
	Investing Cash Flow
-86.26M	-175.46M	-177.97M	-13.78M	-3.42M
	Financing Cash Flow
122.02M	75.48M	478.37M	92.47M	26.20M

Aspen Aerogels Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 6.02
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ASPN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 6.02 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.97, above the 50-day MA of 5.71, and below the 200-day MA of 13.59, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.04 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.60 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 28.41 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ASPN.

Aspen Aerogels Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
JBI	71 Outperform	$1.14B	22.90	9.51%	―	-13.95%	-63.37%
PPIH	70 Outperform	$114.95M	13.09	13.03%	―	5.12%	-14.55%
Sector *	66 Neutral	$4.48B	12.26	5.32%	248.53%	4.10%	-12.36%
SWIM	61 Neutral	$673.77M	77.89	-4.13%	―	-5.58%	-465.52%
ASPN	53 Neutral	$475.79M	35.31	-70.97%	―	51.90%	-685.60%
JELD	45 Neutral	$330.11M	―	-55.39%	―	-14.12%	-1264.86%
CSTE	44 Neutral	$62.20M	―	-17.84%	―	-20.34%	53.57%

Aspen Aerogels Corporate Events

Aspen Aerogels Secures PyroThin Contract Amid Q1 Loss

Aspen Aerogels reported a first-quarter 2025 revenue of $78.7 million, down from $94.5 million in the same period last year, and a net loss of $301.2 million, largely due to a $286.6 million impairment charge related to the demobilization of a planned manufacturing plant. Despite these challenges, the company secured a PyroThin contract with a leading American OEM for a future vehicle platform, showcasing its strategic focus on expanding its thermal barrier and energy industrial segments, optimizing costs, and strengthening its supply chain.

Aspen Aerogels Approves Equity and Stock Purchase Plans

On April 30, 2025, Aspen Aerogels held its Annual Meeting where stockholders approved the Amended and Restated 2023 Equity Incentive Plan, increasing the reserved shares by 3,850,000 and extending the plan’s term to 2035. Additionally, the Employee Stock Purchase Plan was approved, authorizing 4,000,000 shares for eligible employees to purchase at a discount. These approvals reflect the company’s strategic focus on enhancing employee engagement and aligning shareholder interests, potentially strengthening its market position.