Aspen Aerogels (ASPN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $244.64M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.42M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.95
• Revenue Growth: -14.74%
• EPS Growth: -20086.56%
• Country: US
• Employees: 554
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Construction
• EPS (TTM): -0.08
• Shares Outstanding: 82,647,080
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,560,444
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,419,674
• PEG Ratio: -0.55
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.50
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.03
• P/FCF Ratio: -22.62
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.34
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.62
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.92
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -2.12
• 1Y Price Target: $5.00
• Price Target Upside: 68.92% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5
• EPS Forecast (FY): -4.05
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $278.07M

• Rating: 44 Neutral
• Price Target: $3.00 ▲(1.35% Upside)

Aspen Aerogels faces significant financial challenges, with strong revenue growth overshadowed by profitability and cash flow issues. Technical indicators suggest bearish momentum, and valuation metrics are unattractive due to ongoing losses. Despite these challenges, potential growth opportunities in new segments and improved liquidity provide some optimism.

Positive Factors

Strategic Leadership Changes

The introduction of experienced leaders can enhance operational efficiency and strategic execution, supporting long-term growth initiatives.

Energy Industrial Segment Growth

Growth in the Energy Industrial segment indicates a positive trajectory, potentially offsetting challenges in other areas and driving future revenue.

Amended Credit Facility

Improved liquidity and covenant flexibility strengthen Aspen's financial position, supporting execution of its growth strategy into 2026.

Negative Factors

Profitability Challenges

Ongoing profitability issues, reflected in negative margins, can hinder long-term sustainability and limit reinvestment opportunities.

Decline in Revenue

A decline in revenue, particularly in key markets, may signal weakening demand and impact future growth prospects.

Uncertain EV Market Conditions

Uncertainty in the EV market could lead to reduced demand for Aspen's products, affecting revenue and strategic positioning.

Aspen Aerogels Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Aspen Aerogels, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and sells aerogel insulation products primarily for use in the energy infrastructure and building materials markets in the United States, Asia, Canada, Europe, and Latin America. The company offers PyroThin thermal barriers for use in lithium-ion batteries in electric vehicles and energy storage industries; Pyrogel XTE that reduces the risk of corrosion under insulation in energy infrastructure operating systems; Pyrogel HPS for applications within the power generation market; Pyrogel XTF to provide protection against fire; Cryogel Z for sub-ambient and cryogenic applications in the energy infrastructure market; and Spaceloft Subsea for use in pipe-in-pipe applications in offshore oil production. It also offers Spaceloft Grey and Spaceloft A2 for use in the building materials market; and Cryogel X201, which is used in designing cold systems, such as refrigerated appliances, cold storage equipment, and aerospace systems. The company was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Northborough, Massachusetts.

How the Company Makes Money

Aspen Aerogels primarily generates revenue through the sale of its aerogel insulation products, which are utilized in high-performance applications in industries such as oil and gas, where they help reduce energy costs and improve operational efficiency. Key revenue streams include direct sales to large industrial clients, partnerships with engineering and construction firms, and collaborations with manufacturers in sectors like building materials. The company may also benefit from government incentives related to energy efficiency and sustainability initiatives. Additionally, Aspen Aerogels focuses on expanding its market presence through strategic partnerships and collaborations, which can enhance its product offerings and access to new customer segments.

Aspen Aerogels Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Aspen Aerogels demonstrates strong revenue growth but faces significant challenges in profitability and cash flow management. The balance sheet is stable, yet negative returns on equity and cash flow issues pose risks to long-term sustainability.

Income Statement

Aspen Aerogels shows significant revenue growth in the TTM period, with a remarkable increase of over 18,000%. However, profitability remains a challenge, as indicated by negative net profit and EBIT margins. The gross profit margin has improved compared to previous years, but the company still struggles with negative EBITDA and EBIT margins, reflecting operational inefficiencies.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet shows a moderate debt-to-equity ratio, indicating a balanced approach to leveraging. However, the return on equity is negative, suggesting that the company is not generating sufficient returns on its equity base. The equity ratio is stable, but the negative ROE highlights profitability concerns.

Cash Flow

Aspen Aerogels faces challenges in cash flow management, with negative free cash flow growth and low operating cash flow coverage. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is extremely low, indicating cash flow issues. Despite a slight improvement in free cash flow to net income ratio, the overall cash flow position remains weak.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	352.85M	452.70M	238.72M	180.36M	121.62M	100.27M
Gross Profit	116.06M	182.90M	56.92M	4.98M	9.94M	14.59M
EBITDA	-269.00M	51.46M	-22.31M	-68.41M	-27.43M	-11.37M
Net Income	-305.28M	13.38M	-45.81M	-82.74M	-37.09M	-21.81M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	491.39M	895.14M	703.05M	643.42M	182.95M	97.42M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	150.72M	220.88M	139.72M	281.33M	76.56M	16.50M
Total Debt	150.16M	197.38M	138.77M	119.40M	15.24M	8.31M
Total Liabilities	185.66M	280.44M	214.99M	195.98M	54.55M	29.57M
Stockholders Equity	305.73M	614.71M	488.06M	447.44M	128.41M	67.85M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	2.69M	-40.71M	-218.07M	-272.37M	-32.41M	-13.34M
Operating Cash Flow	52.42M	45.55M	-42.61M	-94.40M	-18.63M	-9.92M
Investing Cash Flow	-49.74M	-86.26M	-175.46M	-177.97M	-13.78M	-3.42M
Financing Cash Flow	35.86M	122.02M	75.48M	478.37M	92.47M	26.20M

Aspen Aerogels Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 2.96
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ASPN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.96 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.24, below the 50-day MA of 5.08, and below the 200-day MA of 6.20, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.47 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 30.55 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 7.95 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ASPN.

Aspen Aerogels Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PPIH	73 Outperform	$260.95M	18.89	17.68%	―	30.74%	-13.58%
BXC	66 Neutral	$493.69M	36.69	2.20%	―	-0.19%	-50.51%
APOG	64 Neutral	$834.41M	19.00	8.83%	2.68%	1.19%	-56.98%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
ROCK	60 Neutral	$1.48B	674.86	13.29%	―	-9.21%	-97.43%
NX	54 Neutral	$705.22M	―	-28.88%	2.07%	43.81%	-584.11%
ASPN	44 Neutral	$244.64M	-0.80	-75.06%	―	-14.74%	-20086.56%

Aspen Aerogels Corporate Events

Aspen Aerogels Amends Credit Facility to Enhance Liquidity

On December 16, 2025, Aspen Aerogels and its affiliates amended their existing MidCap credit facility, raising the minimum liquidity threshold tied to the term loan balance, eliminating the minimum EBITDA covenant, revising mandatory prepayment terms to apply asset-sale proceeds to reduce amortization in order of maturity, and lowering the basket for permitted acquisitions. In a December 17, 2025 announcement, the company said the changes strengthen its financial position and provide added covenant flexibility, reflecting a liquidity outlook that is running ahead of expectations due to operational efficiencies, working-capital improvements and disciplined capital spending, which together should support execution of its growth strategy into 2026 and may reassure lenders and investors about its balance-sheet resiliency.

Aspen Aerogels Reports Q3 2025 Revenue Decline

Aspen Aerogels reported a decrease in total revenue to $73.0 million for Q3 2025, down from $117.3 million in Q3 2024, alongside a reduced net loss of $6.3 million compared to $13.0 million the previous year. The company updated its 2025 outlook to reflect lower demand in the U.S. EV market, while highlighting growth opportunities in its Energy Industrial segment for 2026 and a significant PyroThin® contract with a European OEM. Aspen is focusing on cost reduction and operational efficiency to stabilize and grow its business amid market challenges.