Aspen Aerogels (ASPN)
NYSE:ASPN
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Aspen Aerogels
(NYSE:ASPN)
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Rating:46Neutral
Price Target:
$3.50
▼(-0.85% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/27/26
The score is held down primarily by fragile financial performance—especially volatile profitability and weak/uncertain free cash flow—along with bearish technicals (price below major moving averages and negative MACD). Offsetting these, management’s earnings-call messaging points to improving cost structure, strong liquidity, and identifiable growth catalysts, while valuation is difficult to assess cleanly due to negative earnings and no dividend support.
Positive Factors
Strong liquidity position
A robust cash balance provides multi-quarter runway to execute restructuring, absorb seasonal lows, and fund minimal 2026 capex (~$10M) while servicing scheduled debt amortization. This liquidity materially reduces near-term solvency risk and supports strategic optionality as volumes recover.
Negative Factors
Uneven and weak cash generation
Persistent negative free cash flow and volatile operating cash creates uncertainty about sustainable capital reinvestment and debt repayment ability. Even with current cash, the business needs consistent cash conversion to fund capex, amortization and to avoid dilutive financing if revenue underperforms.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong liquidity position
A robust cash balance provides multi-quarter runway to execute restructuring, absorb seasonal lows, and fund minimal 2026 capex (~$10M) while servicing scheduled debt amortization. This liquidity materially reduces near-term solvency risk and supports strategic optionality as volumes recover.
Read all positive factors
Aspen Aerogels (ASPN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$276.64M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.30M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.85
Revenue Growth-14.74%
EPS Growth-20086.56%
CountryUS
Employees554
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryConstruction
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.88
Shares Outstanding82,825,600
10 Day Avg. Volume1,240,912
30 Day Avg. Volume1,296,495
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio<0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.99
Price to Sales (P/S)0.86
P/FCF Ratio-51.11
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.03
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.07
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-0.84
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$4.00Price Target Upside13.31% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.69
Revenue Forecast (FY)$188.30M
Aspen Aerogels Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Aspen Aerogels, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and sells aerogel insulation products primarily for use in the energy infrastructure and building materials markets in the United States, Asia, Canada, Europe, and Latin America. The company of...
How the Company Makes Money
Aspen Aerogels makes money primarily by manufacturing and selling aerogel-based products to business customers (B2B). Revenue is generated from product sales where the company supplies: (1) Industrial insulation products used to insulate pipes, eq...
Aspen Aerogels Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Highlights revenue contributions from different business areas, providing insight into which segments drive growth and profitability, and how the company balances its portfolio.
Highlights revenue contributions from different business areas, providing insight into which segments drive growth and profitability, and how the company balances its portfolio.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAspen Aerogels Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 25, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call balanced clear near-term challenges—notably large GAAP losses, a Q4 margin hit driven by lower EV production, a customer-related $3M bad debt, and an expected negative-EBITDA Q1—with multiple strategic and financial positives: strong liquidity ($158.6M cash), substantial structural cost reductions (~$75M annually), a credible path to lower adjusted EBITDA breakeven (~$200M in 2026 and ~$175M by 2027), a meaningful European EV pipeline ($220M for 2027 expanding to >$450M in 2028), and expected Energy Industrial growth (~20% in 2026). Overall, the company presents a recovery plan and growth opportunities but still faces significant near-term profitability and market-demand headwinds.Positive Updates
Full Year and Segment Revenue
2025 revenue totaled $271.1 million, comprised of $168.9 million from Thermal Barrier and $102.2 million from Energy Industrial. Q4 2025 revenue was $41.3 million (Energy Industrial $25.3M; Thermal Barrier $16.1M).
Negative Updates
Large GAAP Losses and Negative Quarterly Adjusted EBITDA
GAAP net loss for FY 2025 was $389.6 million; Q4 2025 GAAP net loss was $72.9 million. Adjusted EBITDA for FY 2025 was $2.9 million and Q4 adjusted EBITDA was negative $18 million, reflecting near-term profitability pressure.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Full Year and Segment Revenue
2025 revenue totaled $271.1 million, comprised of $168.9 million from Thermal Barrier and $102.2 million from Energy Industrial. Q4 2025 revenue was $41.3 million (Energy Industrial $25.3M; Thermal Barrier $16.1M).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided Q1 2026 revenue of $35–$40 million (the company expects Q1 to be the lowest quarter of the year) with adjusted EBITDA of negative $13M to negative $10M, working capital neutral to slightly positive and minimal capex; for full-year 2026 they expect sequential revenue growth driven by ~20% Energy Industrial growth, roughly $10–$15M from European OEM programs, and GM EV normalization, and they plan to begin battery energy storage revenue in 2026. They forecast 2026 capital expenditures of about $10M and scheduled debt payments of approximately $35M (including $24M of term‑loan amortization), and expect net cash to expand to over $70M by year‑end (the company finished 2025 with $158.6M cash and generated $6.1M in Q4). Management noted structural cost actions that reduced fixed cash costs by ~$75M annually, lowered adjusted‑EBITDA breakeven from ~$330M (2024) to ~$270M (2025) to ~$200M (2026) with a target of ~$175M in 2027, and said that incremental revenue above breakeven should convert at roughly 50–60% EBITDA margins. They also highlighted a Europe‑only pipeline of ≈$220M tied to 2027 launches (expanding to >$450M in 2028), a plan to roughly double LNG project count and revenue versus 2025, and reiterated 2025 results of $271.1M revenue (Energy Industrial $102.2M; Thermal Barrier $168.9M), GAAP net loss $389.6M, adjusted EBITDA $2.9M, and gross profit $46.3M (17% margin).Aspen Aerogels Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
42
Neutral
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
35
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 271.10M | 452.70M | 238.72M | 180.36M | 121.62M |
| Gross Profit | 46.00M | 182.90M | 56.92M | 4.98M | 9.94M |
| EBITDA | 5.72B | 51.46M | -22.31M | -68.41M | -27.43M |
| Net Income | -389.55M | 13.38M | -45.81M | -82.74M | -37.09M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 406.68M | 895.14M | 703.05M | 643.42M | 182.95M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 156.86M | 220.88M | 139.72M | 281.33M | 76.56M |
| Total Debt | 143.71M | 197.38M | 138.77M | 119.40M | 15.24M |
| Total Liabilities | 171.16M | 280.44M | 214.99M | 195.98M | 54.55M |
| Stockholders Equity | 235.52M | 614.71M | 488.06M | 447.44M | 128.41M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -4.58M | -40.71M | -218.07M | -272.37M | -32.41M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 32.87M | 45.55M | -42.61M | -94.40M | -18.63M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -37.45M | -86.26M | -175.46M | -177.97M | -13.78M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -58.13M | 122.02M | 75.48M | 478.37M | 92.47M |
Aspen Aerogels Technical Analysis
Neutral
3.53
Price Trends
3.38
Positive
3.32
Positive
5.17
Negative
Market Momentum
0.07
Negative
52.20
Neutral
46.76
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ASPN, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 3.53 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.42, above the 50-day MA of 3.38, and below the 200-day MA of 5.17, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.07 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.20 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 46.76 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for ASPN.
Aspen Aerogels Risk Analysis
Aspen Aerogels disclosed 60 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Aspen Aerogels reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Aspen Aerogels Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $271.56M | 8.88 | 17.57% | ― | 30.74% | -13.58% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
59 Neutral | $779.10M | 11.74 | 8.07% | 2.77% | 1.19% | -56.98% | |
56 Neutral | $1.19B | 15.14 | 9.87% | ― | -9.21% | -97.43% | |
52 Neutral | $915.00M | -52.26 | -30.23% | 2.12% | 43.81% | -584.11% | |
46 Neutral | $276.64M | -0.60 | -133.77% | ― | -14.74% | -20086.56% | |
45 Neutral | $440.23M | 2,188.09 | 2.20% | ― | -0.19% | -50.51% |
* Industrials Sector Average
ASPN
Aspen Aerogels
3.53
-1.65
-31.85%
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Aspen Aerogels Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Aspen Aerogels Launches Strategic Review Amid 2025 Downturn
Negative
Feb 25, 2026
Aspen Aerogels reported that in the fourth quarter of 2025 its revenue dropped to $41.3 million from $123.1 million a year earlier, with full-year 2025 revenue falling to $271.1 million from $452.7 million, as reduced EV-related thermal barrier de...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.