tiprankstipranks
Trending News
More News >
Aspen Aerogels (ASPN)
NYSE:ASPN
Advertisement

Aspen Aerogels (ASPN) AI Stock Analysis

Compare
1,204 Followers

Top Page

AS

Aspen Aerogels

(NYSE:ASPN)

Rating:51Neutral
Price Target:
$6.50
▼(-12.04%Downside)
Aspen Aerogels' overall score is primarily impacted by mixed financial performance, marked by revenue growth but significant profitability challenges. Technical analysis shows moderate momentum, while valuation is constrained by negative earnings. The earnings call underscores immediate challenges despite strategic achievements.
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
Aspen reported 4Q24 results that mostly beat consensus estimates, with total revenue up 46% annually and representing its fifth consecutive quarter of positive adjusted EBITDA.
Partnerships & Contracts
Aspen Aerogels set a baseline 2025 PyroThin expectation with several opportunities for upside, gaining its 8th OEM in 4Q.
Strategic Initiatives
Management endorsed a future path that would leverage external manufacturing, helping Aspen to optimize the EV thermal barrier ramp and confront EV timing risk.
Negative Factors
Guidance and Outlook
Aspen Aerogels guided revenue, Adjusted EBITDA and EPS below the Street for 1Q, and withheld providing guidance for FY25 citing lack of visibility into production demand.
Market Demand
Weaker EV demand results in a reset for 2025 with management electing to end construction at the Georgia plant.
Operational Challenges
Concerns exist about ramp expectations for contracts with major automotive companies like Stellantis, Porsche, and Audi.

Aspen Aerogels (ASPN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Aspen Aerogels Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAspen Aerogels, Inc. is a technology leader in aerogel-based insulation solutions, primarily serving the energy infrastructure and building materials sectors. The company specializes in manufacturing high-performance aerogel insulation products that offer superior thermal performance, fire protection, and energy efficiency. With a commitment to innovation, Aspen Aerogels' products are used in a variety of applications, including industrial, building, and transportation sectors.
How the Company Makes MoneyAspen Aerogels generates revenue through the sale of its advanced aerogel insulation products. These products are primarily marketed to industries that benefit from high-efficiency insulation, such as oil and gas, chemical processing, and building construction. The company capitalizes on the increasing demand for energy-efficient and environmentally friendly insulation solutions. Additionally, Aspen Aerogels may engage in strategic partnerships and collaborations to enhance its product offerings and market reach, further contributing to its revenue streams. The company's earnings are influenced by factors such as technological advancements, regulatory standards promoting energy efficiency, and the overall growth in infrastructure development projects.

Aspen Aerogels Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Revenue by Geography
Revenue by Geography
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where the company is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.
Chart InsightsAspen Aerogels is experiencing robust revenue growth in the United States and Latin America, driven by strategic initiatives like the GM PyroThin award and supply chain diversification. However, Asia's revenue is declining, possibly due to market saturation or competitive pressures. Despite a 17% year-over-year revenue decline, the company is focusing on cost optimization and new OEM opportunities, setting the stage for potential long-term growth. The earnings call highlights strategic achievements but also underscores immediate financial challenges, such as declining gross margins and net income losses.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Aspen Aerogels Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 08, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 29.88%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 07, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Aspen Aerogels showed promise with significant strategic achievements such as the GM award and supply chain optimization, but faced challenges including a notable revenue decline, reduced gross margins, and a significant net income loss. The company's strategic cost-cutting measures and financial stewardship are encouraging but were overshadowed by the immediate financial setbacks.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Major PyroThin Award with GM
Aspen Aerogels secured a major PyroThin award with General Motors for a next-generation prismatic EV platform, reinforcing its role in the electrification ecosystem.
Record Level Quoting Activity
The PyroThin thermal barrier business experienced a record level of quoting activity, indicating continued investment by leading OEMs in future battery electric platforms.
Resilient and Flexible Supply Chain
Aspen successfully diversified its raw material supply chain and created a second source for aerogel, optimizing sourcing from Asia, Europe, and the United States.
Strategic Cost Optimization
The company aims to reduce fixed cash costs to 2022 levels and lower the revenue level required for positive adjusted EBITDA performance to approximately $245 million.
Strong Financial Stewardship
Aspen reduced its interest expenses by paying down over $20 million of debt and maintaining a cash balance of $192 million.
Negative Updates
Revenue Decline
Q1 2025 revenue was $78.7 million, representing a 17% year-over-year decline, with a 25% decrease in EV thermal barrier revenue.
Gross Margin Decline
Company-level gross margins were down to 29%, with the EV thermal barrier business achieving only 23% gross margins, below the target of 35%.
Net Income Loss
Aspen reported a negative net income of $301.2 million in Q1 2025, including significant impairment and restructuring costs.
Inventory Destocking
The Energy Industrial business experienced destocking in its distribution channel, impacting revenue.
Company Guidance
During the Aspen Aerogels First Quarter 2025 Financial Results Call, the company provided guidance on several key metrics and strategic actions. Aspen reported a Q1 revenue of $78.7 million, a 17% year-over-year decline, with the Energy Industrial segment increasing by 2% to $29.8 million and the EV thermal barrier segment decreasing by 25% to $48.9 million. Gross profit margins were at 29%, and the company recorded an adjusted EBITDA of $4.9 million. Aspen is targeting to reduce fixed cash costs to 2022 levels, aiming to lower the revenue required for adjusted EBITDA breakeven to approximately $245 million. For Q2, Aspen forecasts revenue between $70 million and $80 million, with potential adjusted EBITDA ranging from breakeven to $7 million. The company emphasized its focus on long-term growth through diversifying its supply chain, optimizing cost structures, and pursuing new OEM opportunities, setting the stage for potential revenue expansion in 2027 with significant contributions from new contracts.

Aspen Aerogels Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Aspen Aerogels shows mixed financial performance with significant revenue growth potential but suffers from profitability challenges and cash flow constraints. The balance sheet is moderately leveraged but requires careful management to ensure long-term growth.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Aspen Aerogels shows a volatile income statement with fluctuating revenues and profitability challenges. The TTM data reports a negative net income and EBIT, indicating profitability issues. However, there was a significant revenue growth from 2022 to 2024, showcasing potential for revenue expansion. Margins remain a concern due to consistently negative EBIT and EBITDA margins.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
The balance sheet reflects a moderate financial position with a manageable debt-to-equity ratio. Stockholders' equity has been relatively stable, suggesting a degree of balance sheet resilience. However, the decrease in total assets and stockholders' equity in the TTM period raises concerns about asset and equity sustainability moving forward.
Cash Flow
50
Neutral
Cash flow analysis reveals challenges with free cash flow, which has been negative. The operating cash flow has been improving but remains insufficient to cover capital expenditures consistently. The TTM data shows improved operating cash flow, but free cash flow remains an area of concern due to high capital expenditures.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue452.70M238.72M180.36M121.62M100.27M
Gross Profit182.90M56.92M4.98M9.94M14.59M
EBITDA51.46M-22.31M-65.77M-25.81M-11.37M
Net Income13.38M-45.81M-86.23M-27.88M-11.85M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets895.14M703.05M646.57M182.95M97.42M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments220.88M139.72M281.33M76.56M16.50M
Total Debt197.38M138.77M126.66M15.24M8.31M
Total Liabilities280.44M214.99M203.23M54.55M29.57M
Stockholders Equity614.71M488.06M447.44M128.41M67.85M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-40.71M-218.07M-272.37M-32.41M-13.34M
Operating Cash Flow45.55M-42.61M-94.40M-18.63M-9.92M
Investing Cash Flow-86.26M-175.46M-177.97M-13.78M-3.42M
Financing Cash Flow122.02M75.48M478.37M92.47M26.20M

Aspen Aerogels Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price7.39
Price Trends
50DMA
6.17
Positive
100DMA
6.25
Positive
200DMA
10.60
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
0.25
Negative
RSI
64.81
Neutral
STOCH
68.55
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ASPN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 7.39 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.46, above the 50-day MA of 6.17, and below the 200-day MA of 10.60, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.25 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.81 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 68.55 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ASPN.

Aspen Aerogels Risk Analysis

Aspen Aerogels disclosed 72 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Aspen Aerogels reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Aspen Aerogels Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (67)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
JBJBI
77
Outperform
$1.22B24.619.51%-13.95%-63.37%
76
Outperform
$182.24M14.7417.42%9.97%-4.70%
67
Neutral
€8.19B21.546.46%2.95%1.89%-38.99%
67
Neutral
$750.57M77.89-4.13%-5.58%-465.52%
51
Neutral
$594.12M35.31-70.97%51.90%-685.60%
45
Neutral
$358.26M-55.39%-14.12%-1264.86%
43
Neutral
$58.05M-17.84%-20.34%53.57%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
ASPN
Aspen Aerogels
7.39
-16.92
-69.60%
CSTE
CaesarStone Sdot-Yam
1.72
-4.11
-70.50%
PPIH
Perma-Pipe International Holdings
22.78
13.14
136.31%
JELD
JELD-WEN
4.20
-11.86
-73.85%
JBI
Janus International Group
8.60
-5.20
-37.68%
SWIM
Latham Group
6.58
3.35
103.72%

Aspen Aerogels Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Aspen Aerogels Secures PyroThin Contract Amid Q1 Loss
Negative
May 8, 2025

Aspen Aerogels reported a first-quarter 2025 revenue of $78.7 million, down from $94.5 million in the same period last year, and a net loss of $301.2 million, largely due to a $286.6 million impairment charge related to the demobilization of a planned manufacturing plant. Despite these challenges, the company secured a PyroThin contract with a leading American OEM for a future vehicle platform, showcasing its strategic focus on expanding its thermal barrier and energy industrial segments, optimizing costs, and strengthening its supply chain.

Shareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Aspen Aerogels Approves Equity and Stock Purchase Plans
Positive
May 1, 2025

On April 30, 2025, Aspen Aerogels held its Annual Meeting where stockholders approved the Amended and Restated 2023 Equity Incentive Plan, increasing the reserved shares by 3,850,000 and extending the plan’s term to 2035. Additionally, the Employee Stock Purchase Plan was approved, authorizing 4,000,000 shares for eligible employees to purchase at a discount. These approvals reflect the company’s strategic focus on enhancing employee engagement and aligning shareholder interests, potentially strengthening its market position.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 18, 2025