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Aspen Aerogels
(NYSE:ASPN)
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Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$5.50
▲(58.05% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/19/26
ASPN scores slightly below average primarily due to weak and volatile profitability (TTM losses and low margins) despite improved TTM cash generation and manageable leverage. Technicals are supportive with strong price momentum, but overbought readings add near-term risk. The latest earnings call adds some support via sequential-growth guidance and strong liquidity, though operational disruption and continued negative EBITDA temper the outlook.
Positive Factors
Strong liquidity and covenant headroom
A sizable cash balance and covenant headroom provide multi-quarter runway to absorb operational disruption, fund staged plant restarts, and support working capital. This durable liquidity reduces refinancing risk and gives management time to execute growth programs without immediate external funding.
Negative Factors
Weak and volatile profitability
Persistently low margins and intermittent net losses undermine the company's ability to sustainably convert revenue into free cash flow and returns. Margin volatility increases capital allocation risk, makes planning harder, and prolongs the dependence on cash reserves to fund operations.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong liquidity and covenant headroom
A sizable cash balance and covenant headroom provide multi-quarter runway to absorb operational disruption, fund staged plant restarts, and support working capital. This durable liquidity reduces refinancing risk and gives management time to execute growth programs without immediate external funding.
Read all positive factors
Aspen Aerogels Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Highlights revenue contributions from different business areas, providing insight into which segments drive growth and profitability, and how the company balances its portfolio.
Highlights revenue contributions from different business areas, providing insight into which segments drive growth and profitability, and how the company balances its portfolio.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAspen Aerogels (ASPN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$418.53M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.30M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.93
Revenue Growth-47.30%
EPS Growth61.05%
CountryUS
Employees854
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryConstruction
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.36
Shares Outstanding82,877,460
10 Day Avg. Volume789,492
30 Day Avg. Volume1,300,265
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio<0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.99
Price to Sales (P/S)0.86
P/FCF Ratio-51.11
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda>-0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$5.92Price Target Upside70.02% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.77
Revenue Forecast (FY)$193.74M
Aspen Aerogels Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Aspen Aerogels, Inc. is a company dedicated to the development, manufacturing, and sale of advanced aerogel insulation products. These specialized solutions primarily serve the energy infrastructure and building materials sectors across a wide geo...
How the Company Makes Money
Aspen Aerogels makes money primarily by selling aerogel-based thermal insulation products to customers, generating revenue from product shipments under customer purchase orders and supply agreements. A key revenue stream is industrial insulation, ...
Aspen Aerogels Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call balanced material near-term operational challenges (an April plant explosion, related elevated costs, supply-chain and regional disruptions, and negative adjusted EBITDA guidance for Q2) with meaningful positives: a strong cash position bolstered by a $37.6M GM claim, improved quarter-over-quarter profitability metrics (GAAP loss and adjusted EBITDA), robust demand signals and multi-faceted growth drivers in Energy & Industrial (subsea, LNG, maintenance), significant momentum in European thermal barriers (>3x YoY), and explicit guidance for sequential revenue growth with targets (20% EI growth in 2026, Q2 revenue range $40M–$48M). Given the mix of short-term operational headwinds and credible near- to medium-term growth and liquidity strengths, the overall tone is cautious but constructive.Positive Updates
Q1 Revenue and Segment Mix
Total Q1 2026 revenue of $37.9M, comprised of $21.6M Energy & Industrial and $16.3M Thermal Barrier. Company reiterates expectation of sequential revenue growth each quarter through 2026.
Negative Updates
East Providence Plant Explosion and Operational Disruption
April 8 explosion in a high-temperature oven caused localized plant damage and temporary cessation of operations at East Providence. Staged restart expected to begin in May subject to safety and regulatory reviews; full capability restoration will take time.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Q1 Revenue and Segment Mix
Total Q1 2026 revenue of $37.9M, comprised of $21.6M Energy & Industrial and $16.3M Thermal Barrier. Company reiterates expectation of sequential revenue growth each quarter through 2026.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company guided to sequential revenue growth through 2026, with Q2 revenue expected between $40.0M and $48.0M (up roughly 5%–28% quarter‑over‑quarter from Q1’s $37.9M, which included $21.6M Energy & Industrial and $16.3M thermal barrier), and Q2 adjusted EBITDA of negative $10M to negative $4M (Q1 adjusted EBITDA was negative $12.7M and GAAP net loss was $23.7M). Management reiterated a target of ~20% Energy & Industrial growth in 2026 and the ambition to scale that segment into a $200M high‑margin business, with EU thermal barrier revenue expected to be ~$10M–$15M in 2026; they also expect EBITDA breakeven at roughly $50M of quarterly revenue and have reduced breakeven from $330M (2024) to $200M (2026) and to $175M by end of 2027. Liquidity guidance included Q1 cash of $175.6M (up from $158.6M), $37.6M GM claim proceeds recognized ratably through 2027 ( $3.5M booked in Q1, ~$4.9M/quarter thereafter), an $86M term‑loan balance with covenant headroom (cash ≥ 100% of term loan), full‑year CapEx < $10M, scheduled debt payments of ~ $26M, and the expectation that Q2 cash outflows could be $20M–$30M (including ~ $12M of CapEx and scheduled debt payments) while they manage elevated near‑term costs from the East Providence disruption.Aspen Aerogels Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
38
Negative
Balance Sheet
63
Positive
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 230.26M | 271.10M | 452.70M | 238.72M | 180.36M | 121.62M |
| Gross Profit | 27.46M | 46.00M | 182.90M | 56.92M | 4.98M | 9.94M |
| EBITDA | -59.51M | 5.72B | 51.46M | -22.31M | -68.41M | -27.43M |
| Net Income | -111.99M | -389.55M | 13.38M | -45.81M | -82.74M | -37.09M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 410.48M | 406.68M | 895.14M | 703.05M | 643.42M | 182.95M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 175.58M | 156.86M | 220.88M | 139.72M | 281.33M | 76.56M |
| Total Debt | 128.82M | 143.71M | 197.38M | 138.77M | 119.40M | 15.24M |
| Total Liabilities | 196.98M | 171.16M | 280.44M | 214.99M | 195.98M | 54.55M |
| Stockholders Equity | 213.50M | 235.52M | 614.71M | 488.06M | 447.44M | 128.41M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 35.57M | -4.58M | -40.71M | -218.07M | -272.37M | -32.41M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 61.38M | 32.87M | 45.55M | -42.61M | -94.40M | -18.63M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -25.82M | -37.45M | -86.26M | -175.46M | -177.97M | -13.78M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -52.42M | -58.13M | 122.02M | 75.48M | 478.37M | 92.47M |
Aspen Aerogels Technical Analysis
Negative
3.48
Price Trends
5.62
Negative
4.53
Positive
4.55
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.14
Positive
42.40
Neutral
25.02
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ASPN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.48 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.58, below the 50-day MA of 5.62, and below the 200-day MA of 4.55, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.14 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.40 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 25.02 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ASPN.
Aspen Aerogels Risk Analysis
Aspen Aerogels disclosed 60 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Aspen Aerogels reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Aspen Aerogels Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $860.19M | 12.74 | 10.79% | 2.77% | 1.79% | 36.42% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
60 Neutral | $207.61M | 14.78 | 15.92% | ― | 25.55% | 9.49% | |
52 Neutral | $418.53M | -3.77 | -42.12% | ― | -47.30% | 61.05% | |
49 Neutral | $1.33B | 139.29 | 0.94% | ― | -4.66% | -201.96% | |
47 Neutral | $482.59M | -118.55 | -0.65% | ― | 1.38% | -111.51% | |
45 Neutral | $852.42M | -3.28 | -35.45% | 2.12% | 14.25% | -1038.06% |
* Industrials Sector Average
ASPN
Aspen Aerogels
5.13
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-29.05%
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PPIH
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NX
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18.17
0.10
0.54%
Aspen Aerogels Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Aspen Aerogels Resumes Plant Operations After Safety Incident
Positive
May 18, 2026
On May 13, 2026, Aspen Aerogels’ board named Chief Financial Officer Grant Thoele as principal accounting officer, consolidating its top finance and accounting roles and raising his base salary to $425,000 effective April 1, 2026, while keep...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Aspen Aerogels Details Q1 Results and Plant Explosion
Negative
May 7, 2026
Aspen Aerogels reported that first-quarter 2026 revenue fell to $37.9 million from $78.7 million a year earlier, as thermal barrier sales dropped sharply due to changes in regulatory frameworks and incentive programs, while energy industrial reven...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Aspen Aerogels Shuts Rhode Island Plant After Explosion
Negative
Apr 21, 2026
Aspen Aerogels reported that an explosion at its East Providence, Rhode Island manufacturing facility on April 8, 2026 damaged part of the production area and forced a temporary shutdown of operations. The incident, which preliminary findings link...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.