Aspen Aerogels (ASPN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $294.22M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.47M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 2.03
• Revenue Growth: -14.74%
• EPS Growth: -20086.56%
• Country: US
• Employees: 554
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Construction
• EPS (TTM): -0.88
• Shares Outstanding: 82,647,080
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,777,312
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,465,575
• PEG Ratio: <0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.99
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.86
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.61
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.66
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.90
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -0.58
• 1Y Price Target: $4.50
• Price Target Upside: 43.31% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): -0.42
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $235.00M

• Rating: 46 Neutral
• Price Target: $3.00 ▼(-4.46% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/27/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/27/26

The score is held down primarily by fragile financial performance—especially volatile profitability and weak/uncertain free cash flow—along with bearish technicals (price below major moving averages and negative MACD). Offsetting these, management’s earnings-call messaging points to improving cost structure, strong liquidity, and identifiable growth catalysts, while valuation is difficult to assess cleanly due to negative earnings and no dividend support.

Positive Factors

Strong liquidity cushion

A large cash balance and recent positive quarter cash generation provide multi-quarter runway to execute restructuring, support minimal 2026 capex (~$10M) and cover scheduled debt amortization. This reduces near-term refinancing risk and gives management time to drive the profitability plan.

Structural cost reductions and lower breakeven

Substantial permanent fixed-cost cuts and a materially lower adjusted-EBITDA breakeven meaningfully improve operating leverage. Lower breakeven reduces the revenue needed for sustained profitability and increases the chance that incremental sales will convert to cashflow at targeted 50%–60% EBITDA margins.

Material growth pipelines (Europe OEM & energy projects)

A sizable, multi-year European OEM pipeline and recent design wins provide durable secular demand prospects beyond volatile US EV volumes. Combined with Energy Industrial project pipelines, these secured opportunities support predictable design/qualification timelines and potential multi-year revenue visibility.

Negative Factors

Weak, inconsistent cash generation

Persistent negative or volatile free cash flow limits the firm’s ability to self-fund growth, deleverages slowly, and raises reliance on cash reserves or external financing. Until consistent positive FCF resumes, capital allocation and reinvestment plans remain constrained and riskier.

Large GAAP losses and earnings volatility

Very large reported GAAP losses and swingy quarterly results reflect impairments and restructuring that have eroded equity and earnings consistency. Such volatility undermines sustainable reinvestment, complicates lender/investor confidence, and lengthens the timeline to reliable, repeatable profitability.

Exposure to EV demand cyclicality and absorption risk

High exposure to OEM EV production creates revenue and margin cyclicality driven by OEM production plans and absorption. Production ramp-downs reduce factory utilization and margins, making revenue lumpy and increasing sensitivity to external EV market cycles over the medium term.

Aspen Aerogels Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Aspen Aerogels, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and sells aerogel insulation products primarily for use in the energy infrastructure and building materials markets in the United States, Asia, Canada, Europe, and Latin America. The company offers PyroThin thermal barriers for use in lithium-ion batteries in electric vehicles and energy storage industries; Pyrogel XTE that reduces the risk of corrosion under insulation in energy infrastructure operating systems; Pyrogel HPS for applications within the power generation market; Pyrogel XTF to provide protection against fire; Cryogel Z for sub-ambient and cryogenic applications in the energy infrastructure market; and Spaceloft Subsea for use in pipe-in-pipe applications in offshore oil production. It also offers Spaceloft Grey and Spaceloft A2 for use in the building materials market; and Cryogel X201, which is used in designing cold systems, such as refrigerated appliances, cold storage equipment, and aerospace systems. The company was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Northborough, Massachusetts.

How the Company Makes Money

Aspen Aerogels primarily generates revenue through the sale of its aerogel insulation products, which are utilized in high-performance applications in industries such as oil and gas, where they help reduce energy costs and improve operational efficiency. Key revenue streams include direct sales to large industrial clients, partnerships with engineering and construction firms, and collaborations with manufacturers in sectors like building materials. The company may also benefit from government incentives related to energy efficiency and sustainability initiatives. Additionally, Aspen Aerogels focuses on expanding its market presence through strategic partnerships and collaborations, which can enhance its product offerings and access to new customer segments.

Aspen Aerogels Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Income statement momentum is offset by weak quality and consistency: 2024 showed strong revenue growth and a brief return to profitability, but the latest annual report signals a regression to operating/net losses. Balance-sheet leverage has been moderate historically, yet the latest report shows a shrinking capital base. Cash flow is the biggest concern given multi-year negative operating cash flow history, negative free cash flow, and limited visibility in the latest report.

Income Statement

Revenue expanded sharply from 2020–2024 (including ~90% growth in 2024), and profitability improved meaningfully with positive operating profit and net income in 2024 (gross margin ~40% and net margin ~3%). However, results appear volatile: the 2025 annual report shows a return to operating and net losses, and longer-term margins were deeply negative in 2020–2023. Overall, the growth story is strong, but earnings consistency remains a key risk.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks manageable based on historical debt-to-equity (roughly 0.27–0.32 in 2022–2024), suggesting the company hasn’t relied excessively on debt to fund growth. That said, equity and total assets decline materially in the latest annual report versus 2024, and profitability on shareholder capital has been inconsistent (negative in most years, modestly positive in 2024). The balance sheet is not highly leveraged, but the direction of capital base and earnings quality warrants caution.

Cash Flow

Cash generation has been uneven: operating cash flow was negative for several years (2020–2023), turned positive in 2024, but free cash flow remained negative in 2024, implying profits did not translate cleanly into cash after investment needs. The latest annual report shows operating and free cash flow at zero, limiting visibility and raising questions about sustainability and reporting quality. Overall cash flow strength is the weakest pillar given persistent negative free cash flow and volatility.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	271.10M	452.70M	238.72M	180.36M	121.62M
Gross Profit	46.11B	182.90M	56.92M	4.98M	9.94M
EBITDA	-6.24M	51.46M	-22.31M	-68.41M	-27.43M
Net Income	-389.55M	13.38M	-45.81M	-82.74M	-37.09M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	406.68M	895.14M	703.05M	643.42M	182.95M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	156.86M	220.88M	139.72M	281.33M	76.56M
Total Debt	78.25M	197.38M	138.77M	119.40M	15.24M
Total Liabilities	171.16M	280.44M	214.99M	195.98M	54.55M
Stockholders Equity	235.52M	614.71M	488.06M	447.44M	128.41M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	-40.71M	-218.07M	-272.37M	-32.41M
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	45.55M	-42.61M	-94.40M	-18.63M
Investing Cash Flow	-37.45M	-86.26M	-175.46M	-177.97M	-13.78M
Financing Cash Flow	-58.13M	122.02M	75.48M	478.37M	92.47M

Aspen Aerogels Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 3.14
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ASPN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.14 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.39, below the 50-day MA of 3.30, and below the 200-day MA of 5.58, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.05 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.96 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 45.54 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ASPN.

Aspen Aerogels Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PPIH	73 Outperform	$273.82M	19.36	17.68%	―	30.74%	-13.58%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
APOG	59 Neutral	$865.35M	21.75	7.73%	2.77%	1.19%	-56.98%
NX	55 Neutral	$1.02B	-3.82	-28.88%	2.12%	43.81%	-584.11%
ROCK	54 Neutral	$1.50B	665.00	13.29%	―	-9.21%	-97.43%
BXC	49 Neutral	$551.97M	-37,305.56	2.20%	―	-0.19%	-50.51%
ASPN	46 Neutral	$294.22M	-0.54	-91.64%	―	-14.74%	-20086.56%

Aspen Aerogels Corporate Events

Aspen Aerogels Launches Strategic Review Amid 2025 Downturn

Aspen Aerogels reported that in the fourth quarter of 2025 its revenue dropped to $41.3 million from $123.1 million a year earlier, with full-year 2025 revenue falling to $271.1 million from $452.7 million, as reduced EV-related thermal barrier demand and softer Energy Industrial activity pushed the company to a $389.6 million net loss, largely driven by a $291.2 million impairment on its previously planned Statesboro plant and other restructuring charges. Despite the downturn, Aspen ended 2025 with $158.6 million in cash, expects a $37.6 million settlement payment from General Motors in early 2026, secured new business including a Volvo Cars EV award and a North Sea subsea pipeline project, and has launched a strategic review with Piper Sandler to optimize its cost structure, monetize Statesboro assets, and strengthen its long-term competitive position and balance sheet.

In 2025, Aspen also generated $16.1 million of operating cash in the fourth quarter and cut more than $75 million from its fixed cost base while signaling continued near-term softness in EV thermal barrier volumes. Management indicated that, from this lower production baseline and supported by project momentum in Energy Industrial, it expects future top-line growth and improved profitability as its leaner structure and strategic review aim to enhance shareholder value over the long term.

The most recent analyst rating on (ASPN) stock is a Hold with a $3.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aspen Aerogels stock, see the ASPN Stock Forecast page.

Aspen Aerogels Amends Credit Facility to Enhance Liquidity

On December 16, 2025, Aspen Aerogels and its affiliates amended their existing MidCap credit facility, raising the minimum liquidity threshold tied to the term loan balance, eliminating the minimum EBITDA covenant, revising mandatory prepayment terms to apply asset-sale proceeds to reduce amortization in order of maturity, and lowering the basket for permitted acquisitions. In a December 17, 2025 announcement, the company said the changes strengthen its financial position and provide added covenant flexibility, reflecting a liquidity outlook that is running ahead of expectations due to operational efficiencies, working-capital improvements and disciplined capital spending, which together should support execution of its growth strategy into 2026 and may reassure lenders and investors about its balance-sheet resiliency.

The most recent analyst rating on (ASPN) stock is a Hold with a $3.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aspen Aerogels stock, see the ASPN Stock Forecast page.