Aspen Aerogels (ASPN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $483.19M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.68M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 35.3
• Beta (1Y): 1.89
• Revenue Growth: 51.90%
• EPS Growth: -685.60%
• Country: US
• Employees: 554
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 86
• Industry: Construction
• EPS (TTM): -3.67
• Shares Outstanding: 82,174,355
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,464,329
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,684,883
• PEG Ratio: -0.04
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.04
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -1.70
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.64
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.19
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.81
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 1.84
• 1Y Price Target: $8.50
• Price Target Upside: 43.58% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6

• Rating: 52 Neutral
• Price Target: $6.00 ▲(1.35%Upside)

Aspen Aerogels' score is driven by mixed financial performance and technical indicators, with valuation concerns due to negative earnings. Strategic initiatives and new contract wins provide optimism, tempered by current financial challenges.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

Aspen reported 4Q24 results that mostly beat consensus estimates, with total revenue up 46% annually and representing its fifth consecutive quarter of positive adjusted EBITDA.

Financial Stability

Aspen's financial position is strong, ending the quarter with a significant increase in cash and equivalents.

Strategic Partnerships

The 8th OEM award announced with Volvo trucks further strengthens Aspen's OEM relationships and growth potential.

Negative Factors

EV Market Demand

Weaker EV demand results in a reset for 2025 with management electing to end construction at the Georgia plant.

Guidance and Visibility

Aspen Aerogels guided revenue, Adjusted EBITDA and EPS below the Street for 1Q, and withheld providing guidance for FY25 citing lack of visibility into production demand.

Market Sentiment

The rating for Aspen Aerogels, Inc. was downgraded from Buy to Neutral due to low visibility on program needs and margin vulnerability.

Aspen Aerogels Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Aspen Aerogels, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and sells aerogel insulation products primarily for use in the energy infrastructure and building materials markets in the United States, Asia, Canada, Europe, and Latin America. The company offers PyroThin thermal barriers for use in lithium-ion batteries in electric vehicles and energy storage industries; Pyrogel XTE that reduces the risk of corrosion under insulation in energy infrastructure operating systems; Pyrogel HPS for applications within the power generation market; Pyrogel XTF to provide protection against fire; Cryogel Z for sub-ambient and cryogenic applications in the energy infrastructure market; and Spaceloft Subsea for use in pipe-in-pipe applications in offshore oil production. It also offers Spaceloft Grey and Spaceloft A2 for use in the building materials market; and Cryogel X201, which is used in designing cold systems, such as refrigerated appliances, cold storage equipment, and aerospace systems. The company was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Northborough, Massachusetts.

How the Company Makes Money

Aspen Aerogels generates revenue through the sale of its advanced aerogel insulation products. These products are primarily marketed to industries that benefit from high-efficiency insulation, such as oil and gas, chemical processing, and building construction. The company capitalizes on the increasing demand for energy-efficient and environmentally friendly insulation solutions. Additionally, Aspen Aerogels may engage in strategic partnerships and collaborations to enhance its product offerings and market reach, further contributing to its revenue streams. The company's earnings are influenced by factors such as technological advancements, regulatory standards promoting energy efficiency, and the overall growth in infrastructure development projects.

Aspen Aerogels Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Aspen Aerogels exhibits a mixed financial performance. Despite substantial revenue growth, significant profitability challenges remain, with negative net income and EBIT. Cash flow constraints persist due to high capital expenditures, although operating cash flow shows some improvement. The balance sheet is moderately leveraged, but asset and equity sustainability are concerns.

Income Statement

Aspen Aerogels shows a volatile income statement with fluctuating revenues and profitability challenges. The TTM data reports a negative net income and EBIT, indicating profitability issues. However, there was a significant revenue growth from 2022 to 2024, showcasing potential for revenue expansion. Margins remain a concern due to consistently negative EBIT and EBITDA margins.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a moderate financial position with a manageable debt-to-equity ratio. Stockholders' equity has been relatively stable, suggesting a degree of balance sheet resilience. However, the decrease in total assets and stockholders' equity in the TTM period raises concerns about asset and equity sustainability moving forward.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals challenges with free cash flow, which has been negative. The operating cash flow has been improving but remains insufficient to cover capital expenditures consistently. The TTM data shows improved operating cash flow, but free cash flow remains an area of concern due to high capital expenditures.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	436.92M	452.70M	238.72M	180.36M	121.62M	100.27M
Gross Profit	170.57M	182.90M	56.92M	4.98M	9.94M	14.59M
EBITDA	-155.65M	51.46M	-22.31M	-65.77M	-25.81M	-11.37M
Net Income	-286.07M	13.38M	-45.81M	-86.23M	-27.88M	-11.85M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	554.98M	895.14M	703.05M	646.57M	182.95M	97.42M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	192.04M	220.88M	139.72M	281.33M	76.56M	16.50M
Total Debt	180.88M	197.38M	138.77M	126.66M	15.24M	8.31M
Total Liabilities	240.14M	280.44M	214.99M	203.23M	54.55M	29.57M
Stockholders Equity	314.83M	614.71M	488.06M	447.44M	128.41M	67.85M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-4.47M	-40.71M	-218.07M	-272.37M	-32.41M	-13.34M
Operating Cash Flow	68.93M	45.55M	-42.61M	-94.40M	-18.63M	-9.92M
Investing Cash Flow	-73.40M	-86.26M	-175.46M	-177.97M	-13.78M	-3.42M
Financing Cash Flow	95.79M	122.02M	75.48M	478.37M	92.47M	26.20M

Aspen Aerogels Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 5.92
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ASPN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 5.92 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.02, above the 50-day MA of 5.82, and below the 200-day MA of 11.97, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.65 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 46.66 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ASPN.

Aspen Aerogels Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PPIH	77 Outperform	$183.44M	14.80	17.42%	―	9.97%	-4.70%
JBI	75 Outperform	$1.14B	23.38	9.51%	―	-13.95%	-63.37%
SWIM	69 Neutral	$765.70M	77.89	-4.13%	―	-5.58%	-465.52%
Sector *	67 Neutral	$2.49B	13.26	7.40%	4.55%	-0.87%	8.24%
ASPN	52 Neutral	$483.19M	35.31	-70.97%	―	51.90%	-685.60%
CSTE	47 Neutral	$64.27M	―	-17.84%	―	-20.34%	53.57%
JELD	46 Neutral	$331.81M	―	-55.39%	―	-14.12%	-1264.86%

Aspen Aerogels Corporate Events

Aspen Aerogels Secures PyroThin Contract Amid Q1 Loss

Aspen Aerogels reported a first-quarter 2025 revenue of $78.7 million, down from $94.5 million in the same period last year, and a net loss of $301.2 million, largely due to a $286.6 million impairment charge related to the demobilization of a planned manufacturing plant. Despite these challenges, the company secured a PyroThin contract with a leading American OEM for a future vehicle platform, showcasing its strategic focus on expanding its thermal barrier and energy industrial segments, optimizing costs, and strengthening its supply chain.

Aspen Aerogels Approves Equity and Stock Purchase Plans

On April 30, 2025, Aspen Aerogels held its Annual Meeting where stockholders approved the Amended and Restated 2023 Equity Incentive Plan, increasing the reserved shares by 3,850,000 and extending the plan’s term to 2035. Additionally, the Employee Stock Purchase Plan was approved, authorizing 4,000,000 shares for eligible employees to purchase at a discount. These approvals reflect the company’s strategic focus on enhancing employee engagement and aligning shareholder interests, potentially strengthening its market position.