Aspen Aerogels (ASPN) AI Stock Analysis

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Aspen Aerogels

(NYSE:ASPN)

Rating:47Neutral

Price Target:

$7.00

▲(5.90% Upside)

Aspen Aerogels' overall stock score is primarily impacted by its mixed financial performance and valuation concerns. While there is potential for revenue growth, profitability challenges and negative cash flow remain significant risks. Technical analysis indicates a neutral to slightly bearish trend, and the earnings call highlights both strategic achievements and immediate financial challenges.

Positive Factors

Business partnerships

8th OEM award announced with Volvo trucks.

Product innovation

Aspen's thermal barriers should remain a key component in maintaining vehicle safety, supporting the long-term electrification trend.

Strategic management actions

Management is taking the right steps to rightsize the business, preserving marginal profitability with a cost structure that reflects the current reality.

Negative Factors

Executive changes

CFO Ricardo Rodriguez will step down at the end of the third quarter, which is seen as a loss given his reputation as a thoughtful and astute CFO.

Guidance and policy impact

Lower than expected 1Q25 guidance with shifting EV policy leading to a pause in providing.

Market demand

Weaker EV demand results in a reset for 2025 with management electing to end construction at the Georgia plant.

Aspen Aerogels (ASPN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$522.99M

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)2.30M

Price to Earnings (P/E)35.3

Beta (1Y)1.78

Revenue Growth11.18%

EPS Growth-3810800.00%

CountryUS

Employees554

SectorIndustrials

Sector Strength75

IndustryConstruction

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)-0.11

Shares Outstanding82,360,490

10 Day Avg. Volume1,215,268

30 Day Avg. Volume2,300,743

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)N/A

P/FCF RatioN/A

Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.94

Enterprise Value/Revenue1.24

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.41

Enterprise Value/Ebitda-2.71

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$8.38

Price Target Upside26.78% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering5

Aspen Aerogels Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAspen Aerogels, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and sells aerogel insulation products primarily for use in the energy infrastructure and building materials markets in the United States, Asia, Canada, Europe, and Latin America. The company offers PyroThin thermal barriers for use in lithium-ion batteries in electric vehicles and energy storage industries; Pyrogel XTE that reduces the risk of corrosion under insulation in energy infrastructure operating systems; Pyrogel HPS for applications within the power generation market; Pyrogel XTF to provide protection against fire; Cryogel Z for sub-ambient and cryogenic applications in the energy infrastructure market; and Spaceloft Subsea for use in pipe-in-pipe applications in offshore oil production. It also offers Spaceloft Grey and Spaceloft A2 for use in the building materials market; and Cryogel X201, which is used in designing cold systems, such as refrigerated appliances, cold storage equipment, and aerospace systems. The company was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Northborough, Massachusetts.

How the Company Makes MoneyAspen Aerogels generates revenue primarily through the sale of its aerogel insulation products to a diverse customer base in the oil and gas, industrial, and construction sectors. The company’s revenue model is built on direct sales, contracts with large industrial clients, and partnerships with distributors. Key revenue streams include high-performance insulation for pipelines, equipment, and buildings, which are critical for energy conservation and cost savings. Additionally, Aspen Aerogels may engage in research and development collaborations and strategic partnerships that enhance product innovation and market reach, contributing to its overall earnings.

Aspen Aerogels Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Revenue by Geography

Revenue by Geography
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where the company is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.

Chart InsightsAspen Aerogels is experiencing robust revenue growth in the United States and Latin America, driven by strategic initiatives like the GM PyroThin award and supply chain diversification. However, Asia's revenue is declining, possibly due to market saturation or competitive pressures. Despite a 17% year-over-year revenue decline, the company is focusing on cost optimization and new OEM opportunities, setting the stage for potential long-term growth. The earnings call highlights strategic achievements but also underscores immediate financial challenges, such as declining gross margins and net income losses.

Data provided by:

Main Street Data

Aspen Aerogels Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 07, 2025

(Q2-2025)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:Oct 30, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Negative

The earnings call presented a mixed view with significant cost reductions and strong cash positioning as highlights. However, these positive aspects were overshadowed by substantial revenue declines, challenges in key segments, and a noticeable drop in gross profit and margins.

Q2-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Cost Reduction Achievements

Aspen Aerogels removed approximately $65 million in cost, lowering OpEx back to 2022 levels on a run rate basis, and structured the company to require minimal capital expenditures.

Positive Adjusted EBITDA Outlook

The company expects to generate approximately 2x the adjusted EBITDA in the second half of 2025 compared to the first half, reflecting the progress made in streamlining and optimizing the fixed cost structure.

Strong Cash Position

Aspen ended the quarter with $168 million of cash and equivalents, and expects asset sales related to Plant 2 to improve the net cash position by at least $50 million.

General Motors Market Share Gains

General Motors continues gaining U.S. market share, leading to increased quarter-over-quarter revenue for Aspen's EV Thermal Barrier segment by 14%.

Negative Updates

Significant Revenue Decline

Aspen delivered $78 million of revenue in Q2, reflecting a 34% year-over-year decline, significantly impacting the company's financial performance.

Energy Industrial Segment Slowdown

This segment experienced a significant decrease in quarterly revenues to $22.8 million, or 38% year-over-year, due to inventory rebalancing and the absence of new projects.

Subsea Market Challenges

The Subsea market, a key part of the Energy Industrial segment, saw a slowdown in project activity, impacting overall segment performance.

Decline in Gross Profit and Margins

Gross profit of $25.3 million represented a 51% decline over the same quarter last year, with gross margins in the EV Thermal Barrier business below the target.

Company Guidance

During the Aspen Aerogels Q2 2025 financial results call, management provided guidance for the second half of 2025, projecting revenue between $140 million and $160 million, which would translate to a full-year range of $297 million to $317 million. Adjusted EBITDA for the second half is expected to reach $20 million to $30 million, potentially doubling the first half's performance. The company anticipates net income for the second half to range from a loss of $7 million, or $0.08 per share, to a gain of $3 million, or $0.04 per share. Capital expenditures are projected to be managed below $25 million for the year, excluding remaining costs for the mobilization of Plant 2. Management emphasized their focus on streamlining operations and optimizing the fixed cost structure to enhance profitability, aiming for a resilient, growth-oriented business model.

Aspen Aerogels Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Aspen Aerogels exhibits a mixed financial performance. While there is substantial revenue growth potential, profitability remains a significant challenge, and cash flow constraints persist. The balance sheet shows moderate leverage but requires careful management of assets and equity to support long-term growth.

Income Statement

Neutral

Aspen Aerogels shows a volatile income statement with fluctuating revenues and profitability challenges. The TTM data reports a negative net income and EBIT, indicating profitability issues. However, there was a significant revenue growth from 2022 to 2024, showcasing potential for revenue expansion. Margins remain a concern due to consistently negative EBIT and EBITDA margins.

Balance Sheet

Neutral

The balance sheet reflects a moderate financial position with a manageable debt-to-equity ratio. Stockholders' equity has been relatively stable, suggesting a degree of balance sheet resilience. However, the decrease in total assets and stockholders' equity in the TTM period raises concerns about asset and equity sustainability moving forward.

Cash Flow

Neutral

Cash flow analysis reveals challenges with free cash flow, which has been negative. The operating cash flow has been improving but remains insufficient to cover capital expenditures consistently. The TTM data shows improved operating cash flow, but free cash flow remains an area of concern due to high capital expenditures.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	397.18M	452.70M	238.72M	180.36M	121.62M	100.27M
Gross Profit	144.30M	182.90M	56.92M	4.98M	9.94M	14.59M
EBITDA	-181.63M	51.46M	-22.31M	-65.77M	-25.81M	-11.37M
Net Income	-311.94M	13.38M	-45.81M	-86.23M	-27.88M	-11.85M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	525.13M	895.14M	703.05M	646.57M	182.95M	97.42M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	168.03M	220.88M	139.72M	281.33M	76.56M	16.50M
Total Debt	173.17M	197.38M	138.77M	126.66M	15.24M	8.31M
Total Liabilities	216.36M	280.44M	214.99M	203.23M	54.55M	29.57M
Stockholders Equity	308.77M	614.71M	488.06M	447.44M	128.41M	67.85M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	13.52M	-40.71M	-218.07M	-272.37M	-32.41M	-13.34M
Operating Cash Flow	62.09M	45.55M	-42.61M	-94.40M	-18.63M	-9.92M
Investing Cash Flow	-12.93B	-86.26M	-175.46M	-177.97M	-13.78M	-3.42M
Financing Cash Flow	-7.50B	122.02M	75.48M	478.37M	92.47M	26.20M

Aspen Aerogels Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price6.61

Price Trends

50DMA

7.04

Negative

100DMA

6.40

Negative

200DMA

8.48

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.16

Positive

RSI

37.14

Neutral

STOCH

22.32

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ASPN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 6.61 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.01, below the 50-day MA of 7.04, and below the 200-day MA of 8.48, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.16 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.14 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 22.32 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ASPN.

Aspen Aerogels Risk Analysis

Aspen Aerogels disclosed 72 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Aspen Aerogels reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Aspen Aerogels Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (64)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
JBI	76 Outperform	$1.42B	33.01	7.93%	―	-14.06%	-65.38%
PPIH	75 Outperform	$239.00M	20.71	17.42%	―	9.97%	-4.70%
SWIM	72 Outperform	$932.34M	77.89	-3.29%	―	-0.11%	-213.56%
Sector *	64 Neutral	$10.73B	15.65	7.61%	2.01%	2.80%	-14.92%
JELD	52 Neutral	$551.70M	―	-56.74%	―	-15.16%	-1232.39%
ASPN	47 Neutral	$522.99M	35.31	-75.47%	―	11.18%	-3810800.00%
CSTE	39 Underperform	$48.03M	―	-21.97%	―	-20.14%	8.70%

* Industrials Sector Average

Performance Comparison

ASPN

Aspen Aerogels

6.61

-17.16

-72.19%

CSTE

CaesarStone Sdot-Yam

1.41

-3.07

-68.53%

PPIH

Perma-Pipe International Holdings

30.51

20.11

193.37%

JELD

JELD-WEN

6.76

-6.58

-49.33%

JBI

Janus International Group

10.19

-0.22

-2.11%

SWIM

Latham Group

8.24

2.59

45.84%

Aspen Aerogels Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures

Aspen Aerogels Reports Q2 2025 Financial Results

Neutral

Aug 7, 2025

Aspen Aerogels reported second quarter 2025 financial results, highlighting a revenue of $78 million with a 32% gross margin and a significant improvement in Adjusted EBITDA. Despite a net loss of $9.1 million, the company achieved operational improvements through cost structure optimization and strategic restructuring. The transition of CFO Ricardo Rodriguez to Grant Thoele is expected to ensure continuity in strategic direction, with a focus on maintaining financial resilience amid regulatory and market challenges.

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 29, 2025