Aspen Aerogels (ASPN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $611.11M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.46M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 35.3
• Beta (1Y): 1.88
• Revenue Growth: 11.18%
• EPS Growth: -3810800.00%
• Country: US
• Employees: 554
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Construction
• EPS (TTM): -0.11
• Shares Outstanding: 82,360,490
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,842,198
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,463,610
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.80
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.24
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.41
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -2.71
• 1Y Price Target: $8.10
• Price Target Upside: 8.43% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6

• Rating: 54 Neutral
• Price Target: $7.00 ▼(-6.29% Downside)

Aspen Aerogels' overall stock score reflects a challenging financial environment with profitability issues and cash flow constraints. The earnings call provides a positive outlook on cost optimization and future growth, but significant revenue declines and sector challenges weigh heavily. Technical indicators suggest potential volatility, and valuation metrics highlight ongoing financial struggles.

Positive Factors

Capital Efficiency

Aspen Aerogels is now positioned with a much less capital-intensive business, strong balance sheet, and an outlook for improved cash generation.

Financial Performance

Aspen reported 4Q24 results that mostly beat consensus estimates, with total revenue up 46% annually, marking its fifth consecutive quarter of positive adjusted EBITDA.

Strategic Partnerships

Aspen Aerogels has gained its 8th OEM award with Volvo trucks, highlighting its competitive edge in the market.

Negative Factors

Executive Changes

CFO Ricardo Rodriguez will step down at the end of the third quarter, which is seen as a loss given his reputation as a thoughtful and astute CFO.

Guidance and Policy

Aspen Aerogels guided revenue, Adjusted EBITDA and EPS below the Street for 1Q, and withheld providing guidance for FY25 citing lack of visibility into production demand.

Market Demand

Weaker EV demand results in a reset for 2025 with management electing to end construction at the Georgia plant.

Aspen Aerogels Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Aspen Aerogels, Inc. is a leading provider of advanced aerogel solutions, focusing on enhancing energy efficiency and performance across various industries. The company specializes in the development and production of aerogel insulation products, which are used primarily in the oil and gas, industrial, and building sectors. Aspen Aerogels offers a range of high-performance insulation materials that are designed to reduce energy consumption and improve operational efficiency in demanding environments.

How the Company Makes Money

Aspen Aerogels generates revenue primarily through the sale of its aerogel insulation products to a diverse customer base in the oil and gas, industrial, and construction sectors. The company’s revenue model is built on direct sales, contracts with large industrial clients, and partnerships with distributors. Key revenue streams include high-performance insulation for pipelines, equipment, and buildings, which are critical for energy conservation and cost savings. Additionally, Aspen Aerogels may engage in research and development collaborations and strategic partnerships that enhance product innovation and market reach, contributing to its overall earnings.

Aspen Aerogels Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Aspen Aerogels exhibits a mixed financial performance. While there is substantial revenue growth potential, profitability remains a significant challenge, and cash flow constraints persist. The balance sheet shows moderate leverage but requires careful management of assets and equity to support long-term growth.

Income Statement

Aspen Aerogels shows a volatile income statement with fluctuating revenues and profitability challenges. The TTM data reports a negative net income and EBIT, indicating profitability issues. However, there was a significant revenue growth from 2022 to 2024, showcasing potential for revenue expansion. Margins remain a concern due to consistently negative EBIT and EBITDA margins.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a moderate financial position with a manageable debt-to-equity ratio. Stockholders' equity has been relatively stable, suggesting a degree of balance sheet resilience. However, the decrease in total assets and stockholders' equity in the TTM period raises concerns about asset and equity sustainability moving forward.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals challenges with free cash flow, which has been negative. The operating cash flow has been improving but remains insufficient to cover capital expenditures consistently. The TTM data shows improved operating cash flow, but free cash flow remains an area of concern due to high capital expenditures.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	397.18M	452.70M	238.72M	180.36M	121.62M	100.27M
Gross Profit	144.30M	182.90M	56.92M	4.98M	9.94M	14.59M
EBITDA	-181.63M	51.46M	-22.31M	-65.77M	-25.81M	-11.37M
Net Income	-311.94M	13.38M	-45.81M	-86.23M	-27.88M	-11.85M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	525.13M	895.14M	703.05M	646.57M	182.95M	97.42M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	168.03M	220.88M	139.72M	281.33M	76.56M	16.50M
Total Debt	173.17M	197.38M	138.77M	126.66M	15.24M	8.31M
Total Liabilities	216.36M	280.44M	214.99M	203.23M	54.55M	29.57M
Stockholders Equity	308.77M	614.71M	488.06M	447.44M	128.41M	67.85M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	13.52M	-40.71M	-218.07M	-272.37M	-32.41M	-13.34M
Operating Cash Flow	62.09M	45.55M	-42.61M	-94.40M	-18.63M	-9.92M
Investing Cash Flow	-12.93B	-86.26M	-175.46M	-177.97M	-13.78M	-3.42M
Financing Cash Flow	-7.50B	122.02M	75.48M	478.37M	92.47M	26.20M

Aspen Aerogels Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 7.47
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ASPN, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 7.47 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.64, above the 50-day MA of 6.80, and below the 200-day MA of 9.29, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.20 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 52.00 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 22.00 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for ASPN.

Aspen Aerogels Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PPIH	77 Outperform	$211.54M	17.15	17.42%	―	9.97%	-4.70%
JBI	75 Outperform	$1.39B	32.46	7.93%	―	-14.06%	-65.38%
SWIM	73 Outperform	$856.58M	77.89	-3.29%	―	-0.11%	-213.56%
Sector *	62 Neutral	C$7.21B	-5.53	-4.20%	2.31%	13.66%	-29.71%
ASPN	54 Neutral	$611.11M	35.31	-75.47%	―	11.18%	-3810800.00%
JELD	52 Neutral	$478.26M	―	-56.74%	―	-15.16%	-1232.39%
CSTE	45 Neutral	$57.02M	―	-21.97%	―	-20.14%	8.70%

Aspen Aerogels Corporate Events

Aspen Aerogels Reports Q2 2025 Financial Results

Aspen Aerogels reported second quarter 2025 financial results, highlighting a revenue of $78 million with a 32% gross margin and a significant improvement in Adjusted EBITDA. Despite a net loss of $9.1 million, the company achieved operational improvements through cost structure optimization and strategic restructuring. The transition of CFO Ricardo Rodriguez to Grant Thoele is expected to ensure continuity in strategic direction, with a focus on maintaining financial resilience amid regulatory and market challenges.

The most recent analyst rating on (ASPN) stock is a Buy with a $38.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aspen Aerogels stock, see the ASPN Stock Forecast page.