Latham Group (SWIM)
NASDAQ:SWIM
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Latham Group
(NASDAQ:SWIM)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$6.00
▲(1.35% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/06/26
The score is driven mainly by improving financial performance (better profitability, margins, cash flow, and lower leverage) and a constructive 2026 outlook from the earnings call. These positives are tempered by weak technical trend signals and a high P/E with no dividend yield support.
Positive Factors
Margin and Profitability Recovery
Gross margins expanded meaningfully (33% FY2025, Q4 28%) and the company returned to net income, driven by volume leverage, lean manufacturing and value engineering. These structural cost improvements increase earnings durability and give operating leverage if volumes hold.
Negative Factors
Choppy Revenue History and Thin Margins
Revenue recovery in 2025 follows prior declines, reflecting an uneven growth profile and modest net margins historically. This inconsistency suggests revenue and margin gains may be cyclical or execution-dependent, increasing risk that improvements could reverse in weaker demand periods.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Margin and Profitability Recovery
Gross margins expanded meaningfully (33% FY2025, Q4 28%) and the company returned to net income, driven by volume leverage, lean manufacturing and value engineering. These structural cost improvements increase earnings durability and give operating leverage if volumes hold.
Read all positive factors
Latham Group (SWIM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$705.27M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)618.71K
Price to Earnings (P/E)66.5
Beta (1Y)1.26
Revenue Growth4.12%
EPS Growth-198.38%
CountryUS
Employees1,800
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryConstruction
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.03
Shares Outstanding116,959,460
10 Day Avg. Volume843,640
30 Day Avg. Volume618,711
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.41
Price to Book (P/B)1.82
Price to Sales (P/S)1.35
P/FCF Ratio28.39
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.34
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.73
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.17
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.78
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$7.58Price Target Upside28.04% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)0.18
Revenue Forecast (FY)$594.82M
Latham Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Latham Group, Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets in-ground residential swimming pools in North America, Australia, and New Zealand. It offers a portfolio of pools and related products, including in-ground swimming pools, pool covers, and pool...
How the Company Makes Money
Latham makes money primarily by selling residential in-ground pool products and related components to the pool construction and renovation channel (e.g., pool builders/dealers). Revenue is generated from the sale of pool structures (such as in-gro...
Latham Group Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Product Line
Shows how sales are split across Latham’s product lines (for example, pool shells, equipment, filtration systems, and renovation services). Reveals which businesses drive growth and profitability, highlights where margins are strongest, and signals how diversified the company’s revenue base is. A shift toward higher-margin lines or services can improve earnings, while heavy reliance on one product increases exposure to seasonality, housing-market swings, and supply-chain disruption.
Shows how sales are split across Latham’s product lines (for example, pool shells, equipment, filtration systems, and renovation services). Reveals which businesses drive growth and profitability, highlights where margins are strongest, and signals how diversified the company’s revenue base is. A shift toward higher-margin lines or services can improve earnings, while heavy reliance on one product increases exposure to seasonality, housing-market swings, and supply-chain disruption.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyLatham Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 03, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented strong operational and financial momentum: revenue growth, substantial margin expansion, a meaningful increase in adjusted EBITDA, a return to full-year net income, strategic acquisitions (Freedom Pools) and balance sheet strength. Management outlined a clear growth plan for 2026 with targeted marketing and Sand States expansion. Key headwinds include a soft overall U.S. pool market, regional weakness (notably Texas), increased SG&A and CapEx as the company invests to capture future demand, and demand sensitivity to weather and macroeconomic factors. On balance, the positives—solid top-line and margin improvement, improved cash generation, accretive acquisitions and a confident FY2026 guide—outweigh the near-term challenges.Positive Updates
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Q4 net sales of $100.0M, up 15% year-over-year (organic growth 14%); all three product lines (In-Ground Pools, covers, liners) grew for the second consecutive quarter.
Negative Updates
Overall Market Weakness and Geographic Headwinds
U.S. In-Ground Pool market estimated down low- to mid-single digits in 2025 and expected roughly flat in 2026; Texas market weak with permits declining double-digits, which offset gains in other Sand States.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Q4 net sales of $100.0M, up 15% year-over-year (organic growth 14%); all three product lines (In-Ground Pools, covers, liners) grew for the second consecutive quarter.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Latham guided 2026 net sales of $580–$610 million and adjusted EBITDA of $105–$120 million (midpoint growth vs. 2025 of ~9% sales and ~12.7% EBITDA), which management says incorporates mid‑single‑digit organic growth (the organic portion cited ~6% at midpoint) plus the recently completed Freedom Pools acquisition (expected to add ≈$20 million of net sales and ≈$4 million of adjusted EBITDA annualized); capital expenditures are projected at $42–48 million (vs. $25 million in 2025) to fund facility purchases and upgrades; management expects U.S. in‑ground pool starts roughly in line with 2025, aims to further improve gross margins toward a 35% target, and anticipates net debt leverage to remain below 3x at the end of Q1 and improve thereafter (year‑end 2025 cash was $71 million, total debt $280 million, net leverage 2.1x).Latham Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
62
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 545.91M | 508.52M | 566.49M | 695.74M | 630.46M |
| Gross Profit | 153.14M | 153.74M | 152.94M | 216.47M | 204.16M |
| EBITDA | 83.24M | 60.55M | 61.61M | 79.62M | 3.13M |
| Net Income | 11.12M | -17.86M | -2.39M | -5.69M | -62.35M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 823.22M | 794.21M | 835.00M | 869.68M | 794.48M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 71.04M | 56.40M | 102.76M | 32.63M | 43.95M |
| Total Debt | 34.84M | 310.83M | 333.12M | 352.19M | 280.41M |
| Total Liabilities | 417.36M | 406.99M | 435.80M | 486.89M | 440.84M |
| Stockholders Equity | 405.86M | 387.22M | 399.20M | 382.79M | 353.64M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 26.05M | 41.19M | 83.18M | -7.38M | 8.71M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 51.43M | 61.31M | 116.37M | 32.31M | 33.69M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -30.32M | -84.64M | -31.73M | -45.02M | -108.20M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -6.97M | -22.02M | -13.88M | 3.77M | 60.02M |
Latham Group Technical Analysis
Neutral
5.92
Price Trends
6.16
Negative
6.39
Negative
6.85
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.13
Negative
53.57
Neutral
93.68
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SWIM, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 5.92 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.56, below the 50-day MA of 6.16, and below the 200-day MA of 6.85, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.13 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.57 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 93.68 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for SWIM.
Latham Group Risk Analysis
Latham Group disclosed 35 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Latham Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Latham Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
62 Neutral | $741.50M | 17.16 | 9.76% | ― | -10.84% | -53.49% | |
60 Neutral | $705.27M | 66.46 | -2.68% | ― | 4.12% | -198.38% | |
59 Neutral | $751.78M | 11.74 | 8.07% | 2.77% | 1.19% | -56.98% | |
56 Neutral | $1.12B | 15.14 | 9.87% | ― | -9.21% | -97.43% | |
52 Neutral | $879.63M | -52.26 | -30.23% | 2.12% | 43.81% | -584.11% | |
45 Neutral | $432.99M | 2,188.09 | 2.20% | ― | -0.19% | -50.51% |
* Industrials Sector Average
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.