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ASM International NV (ASMIY)
OTHER OTC:ASMIY
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ASM International
(OTC:ASMIY)
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Rating:83Outperform
Price Target:
$967.00
▲(74.47% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/06/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial fundamentals (high profitability, very low leverage, and solid cash generation) and supportive technical trend signals. This is tempered by a high valuation (P/E ~36 and low yield) and some cyclical/visibility risks highlighted on the earnings call despite upbeat 2026 demand and margin guidance.
Positive Factors
High Profitability
Sustained high gross and net margins indicate durable pricing power and differentiated technology (ALD/epitaxy). Robust margins support reinvestment in R&D, absorb cyclical downturns, and enable consistent internal funding for product development and long-term competitiveness.
Very Low Leverage
Extremely low leverage and a high equity ratio provide financial flexibility to fund capex, M&A or R&D without stressing liquidity. This reduces refinancing and covenant risk, making the company better positioned to weather semiconductor cycle volatility over the next several years.
Strong Cash Generation
Consistent FCF growth and healthy cash conversion underpin sustainable internal funding for product development and shareholder returns. Reliable cash generation also supports resilience through downturns and enables strategic investments to extend competitive advantages in equipment and services.
Negative Factors
China Market Weakness
A substantial decline in China bookings represents a structural revenue risk given China's size in semiconductor demand. Export controls and reduced Chinese customer spending can permanently reduce addressable market share and delay product ramps, pressuring multi-year growth trajectories.
Order Intake Softness
A sustained drop in order intake signals lower near-term demand visibility and potential underutilization of production capacity. If persistent, weaker bookings can compress future revenue and margin scalability, complicating investment planning and the delivery of raised long-term targets.
End-market Concentration Risk
Declines in memory-related sales and ongoing weakness in power/analog/wafer segments highlight exposure to cyclical end-markets. Heavy reliance on memory and select segments increases revenue volatility and may delay commercialization of new product wins in advanced logic and DRAM.
ASM International (ASMIY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$37.23B
Dividend Yield0.55%
Average Volume (3M)395.00
Price to Earnings (P/E)36.2
Beta (1Y)1.47
Revenue Growth21.38%
EPS Growth49.42%
CountryUS
Employees4,558
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySemiconductors
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.02
Shares Outstanding49,328,550
10 Day Avg. Volume0
30 Day Avg. Volume395
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio22.99
Price to Book (P/B)6.28
Price to Sales (P/S)8.26
P/FCF Ratio30.86
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.84
Enterprise Value/Revenue9.91
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit19.14
Enterprise Value/Ebitda22.45
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)21.84
Revenue Forecast (FY)$4.26B
ASM International Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionASM International NV, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research, development, manufacture, marketing, and servicing of equipment and materials that are used to produce semiconductor devices in the United States, Europe, and Asia. Its products include wafer processing deposition systems for single-wafer atomic layer deposition, plasma enhanced chemical vapor deposition, epitaxy, and batch diffusion/furnace systems, as well as provides spare parts and support services. The company also manufactures and sells equipment, which is used in wafer processing, encompassing the fabrication steps in which silicon wafers are layered with semiconductor devices. It serves manufacturers of semiconductor devices and integrated circuits. The company was formerly known as Advanced Semiconductor Materials International NV. ASM International NV was incorporated in 1968 and is headquartered in Almere, the Netherlands.
How the Company Makes MoneyASM International generates revenue primarily through the sale of its semiconductor manufacturing equipment and systems, which are sold to foundries and integrated device manufacturers (IDMs) globally. The company's revenue model includes both product sales and ongoing service contracts, which provide maintenance, support, and upgrades for the equipment sold. Key revenue streams include the initial sale of ALD and epitaxy systems, as well as recurring revenue from service agreements and spare parts. Additionally, ASMIY benefits from strategic partnerships with major semiconductor manufacturers and technology companies, which facilitate collaboration on research and development initiatives, further driving growth and innovation in their product offerings.
ASM International Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 03, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 21, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a largely positive picture: ASM delivered record annual revenue, strong operating profit growth, record operating margin and robust free cash flow while demonstrating clear momentum in advanced logic/foundry, recurring spares & services, and targeted strategic investments. Near-term headwinds include a Q4 revenue decline, quarterly margin compression, a reduced memory mix and weakness in power/analog/SiC, plus higher near-term R&D and CapEx. Management's guidance and commentary point to accelerating demand in 2026 (especially 2nm/1.4nm and China recovery), and on balance the operational achievements and forward-looking market opportunities outweigh the temporary challenges described.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Annual Revenue and Double-Digit Growth
Full-year 2025 sales reached EUR 3.2 billion, up 12% at constant currency (record high) and marking the company's ninth consecutive year of double-digit growth.
Strong Profitability and Cash Generation
Operating profit increased 17% in 2025, with a record operating margin of 30.2% (up from 28% in 2024). Free cash flow (excluding M&A cash payments) rose to EUR 615 million, up 12%.
Reacceleration in Demand and Order Intake
Q4 new orders totaled EUR 803 million, up 19% year-on-year and above prior quarter indicators; management noted a reacceleration in demand heading into 2026.
Leadership and Momentum in Advanced Logic/Foundry
Significant traction in gate-all-around and 2-nanometer high-volume manufacturing, expanded served available market (~USD 400M for first-generation GAA) and continued R&D/customer engagement toward 1.4nm (additional USD 450–500M TAM expansion expected).
Spares & Services Growth and Recurring Revenue
Spares and service sales grew 18% for the year at constant currency and were up 22% in Q4 YoY, driven by outcome-based services and strong aftermarket demand.
Solid Balance Sheet and Shareholder Returns
Cash balance slightly north of EUR 1 billion, no debt, completed ~EUR 300 million of dividends and buybacks in 2025, proposed dividend increased to EUR 3.25 per share (from EUR 3) and new EUR 150 million buyback announced.
Strategic Investments and Targeted M&A
CapEx elevated to EUR 280 million (from EUR 168 million) for facility expansion (Korea completed; Scottsdale progressing), and acquisition of Axus Technology (EUR 81 million plus earnout) to broaden advanced packaging/CMP capabilities.
Negative Updates
Q4 Revenue Decline and Quarterly Margin Pressure
Q4 2025 revenue was EUR 698 million, down 7% year-on-year (constant currency) but above guidance. Q4 gross margin fell to 49.8% from 51.9% in Q3 and operating margin dropped to 25% for the quarter, reflecting lower revenue and mix effects.
Memory Segment Contraction and Mix Impact
Memory sales decreased materially in 2025, shrinking to 16% of total equipment sales from 25% in 2024; lower 3D NAND and normalization in China were key drivers, reducing memory's contribution to revenue and mix.
Sharp Weakness in Power/Analog/Wafer and SiC
Power, analog and wafer sales declined for the second consecutive year; silicon carbide sales fell by more than 50% in 2025, signaling a prolonged weakness in that subsegment.
Volatility and Transparency Changes for Bookings
Management will discontinue quarterly bookings disclosure starting in 2026 due to order volatility and timing effects — a change that reduces granularity on near-term demand visibility for investors.
Higher R&D and CapEx Near-Term Investment Drag
Net R&D increased ~6% in Q4 with full-year gross R&D up 9%; CapEx rose to EUR 280 million in 2025 (above earlier mid-range guidance), indicating higher near-term investment that could weigh on free cash flow if growth slows.
Q4 Net Earnings Comparison Affected by One-offs
Q4 net earnings dropped versus Q3 partly because Q3 included a noncash reversal gain of EUR 181 million tied to ASMPT market value recovery, highlighting quarter-to-quarter earnings volatility from one-offs.
Company Guidance
The company guided Q1 2026 revenue to EUR 830 million ±4% (≈EUR 797–863m), with Q2 expected to be higher than Q1 and the second half of 2026 guided to be above the first half; advanced logic/foundry is expected to be the strongest segment, memory to show healthy growth, power/analog a modest recovery, and China sales are now expected to increase year‑over‑year. For 2026 management reiterated gross margin guidance of 46%–51% and said they expect to be toward the higher end of that range; net R&D is expected to remain in the low double‑digit area with Paul citing roughly ~10% as a modelling reference (net R&D was 12.5% in 2025), while SG&A should decline further as a percentage of sales (below 9% in 2026). Capital allocation and balance‑sheet metrics highlighted: 2025 CapEx was EUR 280m (vs prior guidance EUR 200–250m), 2026 CapEx will be driven by Scottsdale with Almere ramping later, free cash flow excluding M&A was a record EUR 615m (+12% ex‑M&A), year‑end cash was slightly north of EUR 1bn with no debt, and the company announced a new EUR 150m buyback and a proposed dividend of EUR 3.25/sh (up from EUR 3), having spent ~EUR 300m on dividends and buybacks in 2025; they also disclosed the Axus acquisition for EUR 81m (plus up to EUR 30m earn‑out) and said they will stop reporting quarterly bookings (will continue to disclose year‑end backlog and move to half‑year/annual segment sales).ASM International Financial Statement Overview
Summary
High-quality financial profile: strong profitability and resilient earnings, an exceptionally conservative balance sheet with minimal leverage, and robust (though somewhat uneven) cash generation. The main detractor is cyclicality, with softer revenue and free cash flow in the latest year versus the prior year.Income Statement
Profitability is strong for a semiconductor equipment business, with high gross and operating margins and solid net margins across the period. Revenue scaled materially from 2020–2025, but the latest year shows a modest revenue decline (2025 vs. 2024), indicating a near-term growth slowdown/cycle impact. Earnings remain resilient despite the softer top line, supporting a high (but not peak) score.84
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet is exceptionally conservative: debt is minimal relative to equity (very low debt-to-equity across all years) and the equity base has grown strongly alongside assets. Returns on equity were healthy where provided (2021–2024), suggesting the company is not only low-leverage but also generating solid profitability on its capital base. Limited leverage reduces financial risk, with the main trade-off being that growth is not being amplified by borrowing.95
Very Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation is strong: operating cash flow and free cash flow increased meaningfully over the multi-year period, and free cash flow is a healthy share of net income in most years. However, cash flow quality is somewhat uneven—operating cash flow relative to net income fluctuates, and 2025 shows a decline in free cash flow versus 2024, signaling some working-capital or investment-related volatility.82
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 3.05B | 2.93B | 2.63B | 2.41B | 1.73B |
| Gross Profit | 1.58B | 1.48B | 1.27B | 1.14B | 828.13M |
| EBITDA | 1.15B | 990.54M | 834.57M | 594.06M | 667.76M |
| Net Income | 695.14M | 685.73M | 752.07M | 389.11M | 494.71M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 5.33B | 5.16B | 4.23B | 3.75B | 2.71B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.03B | 926.00M | 637.26M | 419.31M | 491.51M |
| Total Debt | 63.97M | 35.26M | 33.56M | 28.12M | 23.46M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.33B | 1.41B | 999.92M | 1.00B | 469.33M |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.00B | 3.75B | 3.23B | 2.75B | 2.24B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 815.59M | 532.92M | 418.18M | 333.01M | 223.79M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.03B | 897.65M | 735.89M | 541.49M | 380.64M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -608.59M | -349.97M | -289.04M | -474.88M | -114.40M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -301.13M | -301.03M | -236.05M | -132.60M | -240.26M |
ASM International Technical Analysis
Neutral
554.24
Price Trends
808.29
Negative
709.00
Positive
636.08
Positive
Market Momentum
-6.48
Positive
41.52
Neutral
8.32
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ASMIY, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 554.24 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 814.89, below the 50-day MA of 808.29, and below the 200-day MA of 636.08, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -6.48 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.52 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 8.32 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for ASMIY.
ASM International Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
83 Outperform | $37.23B | 36.20 | 19.21% | 0.55% | 21.38% | 49.42% | |
77 Outperform | $24.10B | 14.74 | 11.36% | 6.06% | 5.87% | -20.93% | |
69 Neutral | $24.10B | 21.96 | 7.68% | ― | 0.25% | -106.22% | |
64 Neutral | $23.36B | 183.93 | 1.53% | ― | -16.13% | -81.06% | |
63 Neutral | $47.54B | 26.78 | 12.81% | 2.29% | 8.01% | 10.41% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
56 Neutral | $28.68B | 136.11 | 0.97% | 1.28% | -17.33% | -76.71% |
* Technology Sector Average
ASMIY
ASM International
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271.18
55.28%
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.