Ardmore Shipping (ASC) AI Stock Analysis

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Ardmore Shipping

(NYSE:ASC)

Rating:76Outperform

Price Target:

$11.00

▲( 14.70% Upside)

Ardmore Shipping's strong valuation and financial performance are the primary strengths, complemented by positive earnings call insights. However, bearish technical indicators and external uncertainties present some risks.

Ardmore Shipping (ASC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$422.49M

Dividend Yield9.36%

Average Volume (3M)565.55K

Price to Earnings (P/E)4.6

Beta (1Y)0.23

Revenue Growth-2.75%

EPS Growth-12.67%

CountryUS

Employees56

SectorIndustrials

Sector Strength90

IndustryMarine Shipping

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.14

Shares Outstanding40,623,928

10 Day Avg. Volume660,443

30 Day Avg. Volume565,551

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-0.22

Price to Book (P/B)0.65

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio4.08

Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.95

Enterprise Value/Revenue0.25

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.44

Enterprise Value/Ebitda0.59

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$12.17

Price Target Upside26.90% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering3

Ardmore Shipping Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionArdmore Shipping Corporation engages in the seaborne transportation of petroleum products and chemicals worldwide. As of February 15, 2022, the company operated a fleet of 25 double-hulled product and chemical tankers. It serves oil majors, oil companies, oil and chemical traders, chemical companies, and pooling service providers. The company was founded in 2010 and is based in Pembroke, Bermuda.

How the Company Makes MoneyArdmore Shipping makes money through the chartering of its tanker vessels to customers seeking transportation for petroleum products and chemicals. The company earns revenue primarily through time charters and spot market voyages, where customers pay Ardmore for the use of its vessels over a specified period or for a specific voyage, respectively. The charter rates depend on market conditions, vessel availability, and the duration of the charter. Partnerships with major oil companies and traders, along with strategic fleet management and operational efficiency, contribute significantly to Ardmore's earnings.

Ardmore Shipping Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Ardmore Shipping exhibits strong financial health with significant improvements in profitability and operational efficiency. The company has shown effective debt management and robust cash generation, although a short-term concern exists due to a decline in free cash flow resulting from increased capital expenditures.

Income Statement

Positive

Ardmore Shipping has shown a strong performance in recent years, with significant improvements in profitability. The gross profit margin has improved to 38.54% in 2024 from 38.73% in 2023, and the net profit margin has also increased to 32.79% from 29.50% in the same period. Revenue growth was modest at 2.48% in 2024 compared to the previous year, indicating stable demand. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy at 31.63% and 43.98%, respectively, indicating strong operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

Very Positive

The company's balance sheet shows a solid equity base with an equity ratio of 90.16% in 2024, highlighting financial stability. The debt-to-equity ratio has significantly decreased to 0.07 from 0.16 in 2023, reflecting effective debt management. ROE improved to 20.94%, underscoring efficient use of equity to generate profits. The reduction in total debt and increase in stockholders' equity suggest a strengthening financial position.

Cash Flow

Positive

Ardmore Shipping's cash flow performance is robust, with a high operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.20 in 2024, indicating strong cash generation capability. However, free cash flow declined by 26.08% from the previous year due to higher capital expenditures. The free cash flow to net income ratio remains healthy at 0.75, demonstrating good cash profitability despite the decrease in free cash flow.

Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
405.78M	395.98M	445.74M	192.48M	220.06M
	Gross Profit
171.79M	153.37M	195.53M	4.44M	99.05M
	EBIT
131.92M	155.95M	159.93M	-19.87M	18.88M
	EBITDA
178.39M	157.85M	187.83M	11.83M	50.63M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
133.01M	116.81M	138.45M	-36.52M	-6.05M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
46.99M	46.80M	50.57M	55.45M	58.37M
	Total Assets
704.80M	690.95M	723.86M	724.53M	752.01M
	Total Debt
44.24M	93.99M	184.62M	372.55M	409.71M
	Net Debt
-2.75M	47.18M	134.05M	317.10M	351.35M
	Total Liabilities
69.38M	116.51M	217.42M	395.53M	431.67M
	Stockholders Equity
635.42M	574.44M	506.44M	329.00M	320.33M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
99.42M	134.22M	120.40M	-5.52M	25.19M
	Operating Cash Flow
160.44M	159.61M	124.21M	-2.89M	46.09M
	Investing Cash Flow
-32.97M	-26.84M	35.41M	1.63M	-20.99M
	Financing Cash Flow
-127.29M	-136.54M	-164.50M	-1.66M	-18.46M

Ardmore Shipping Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price9.59

Price Trends

50DMA

9.65

Negative

100DMA

10.39

Negative

200DMA

12.74

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

0.13

Negative

RSI

46.17

Neutral

STOCH

54.53

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ASC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 9.59 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.84, below the 50-day MA of 9.65, and below the 200-day MA of 12.74, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of 0.13 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 46.17 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 54.53 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ASC.

Ardmore Shipping Risk Analysis

Ardmore Shipping disclosed 67 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ardmore Shipping reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks

An increase in trade protectionism and the decrease of multilateral trade agreements could have a material adverse impact on our results of operations, financial condition and cash flows. Q4, 2024

Ardmore Shipping Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (64)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ASC	76 Outperform	$422.49M	4.56	15.97%	9.36%	-2.75%	-12.67%
PANL	72 Outperform	$290.70M	12.98	4.05%	8.47%	13.10%	-54.75%
GNK	68 Neutral	$599.28M	13.37	5.02%	10.81%	-7.38%	1295.53%
SB	68 Neutral	$403.18M	5.72	9.82%	5.35%	-2.98%	-0.96%
KNOP	66 Neutral	$226.40M	15.64	2.33%	1.60%	10.07%	―
Sector *	64 Neutral	$4.39B	11.81	5.17%	249.38%	3.98%	-12.17%
NAT	62 Neutral	$550.55M	11.70	8.91%	12.73%	-2.37%	-52.77%

* Industrials Sector Average

Performance Comparison

ASC

Ardmore Shipping

9.59

-12.09

-55.77%

GNK

Genco Shipping

13.04

-7.46

-36.39%

NAT

Nordic American Tanker

2.60

-1.26

-32.64%

Safe Bulkers

3.63

-1.58

-30.33%

KNOP

KNOT Offshore Partners

6.48

0.50

8.36%

PANL

Pangaea Logistics Solutions

4.43

-2.92

-39.73%

Ardmore Shipping Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: -3.13%|

Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call highlighted Ardmore Shipping's strong financial performance, strategic investments, and positive market positioning, despite facing macroeconomic uncertainties and asset value volatility. The company's robust earnings, dividend declaration, and leadership transitions were notable positives, while geopolitical uncertainty and asset value fluctuations presented challenges.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Robust Earnings and Dividend Declaration

Ardmore Shipping announced first quarter adjusted earnings of $5.6 million, or $0.14 per share, and declared a quarterly cash dividend consistent with their policy of paying out one-third of adjusted earnings.

Strong TCE Performance

MR earnings were $20,900 per day for the first quarter and $22,100 per day for the second quarter with 50% booked. Chemical tankers earned $15,000 per day for the first quarter and $19,500 per day for the second quarter with 60% booked.

Strategic Fleet Investments

Ardmore upgraded tank coatings on four chemical tankers to increase cargo flexibility and boost earnings. The company continues to invest in efficiency projects across its fleet, achieving IRRs ranging from 20% to over 100%.

Positive Supply Side Dynamics

The global MR fleet is aging, with more than 50% over 20 years old within the next five years, while the current order book represents only 14% of the fleet.

Leadership Transition

Ardmore announced the promotion of Robert Gaina to COO and John Russell to CFO, reflecting a commitment to internal talent development.

Negative Updates

Geopolitical Uncertainty

U.S. tariffs and countermeasures have created uncertainty across the wider macro economy, impacting the broader markets despite supportive underlying tanker demand fundamentals.

Asset Value Volatility

Asset values have been volatile due to macroeconomic uncertainties and geopolitical events, impacting market confidence and transactions.

Company Guidance

During Ardmore Shipping's first quarter 2025 earnings call, the company provided detailed guidance on various metrics. They announced adjusted earnings of $5.6 million, or $0.14 per share, and declared a quarterly cash dividend consistent with their policy of paying out one-third of adjusted earnings. Their MR tankers earned $20,900 per day in the first quarter and $22,100 per day with 50% of the second quarter booked, while chemical tankers earned $15,000 per day in the first quarter and $19,500 per day with 60% of the second quarter booked. The company maintained a low cash break-even level of $11,500 per day, with further reductions expected due to strategic fleet upgrades. They reported EBITDAR of $18.5 million for the first quarter and highlighted their commitment to capital allocation, with a focus on reducing debt and investing in fleet efficiency projects. Additionally, Ardmore announced management changes, emphasizing internal promotions and strategic continuity.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.