ARKO Corp (ARKO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $675.27M
• Dividend Yield: 2.59%
• Average Volume (3M): 512.38K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 54.1
• Beta (1Y): 1.51
• Revenue Growth: -12.61%
• EPS Growth: -27.22%
• Country: US
• Employees: 11,772
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Specialty Retail
• EPS (TTM): 0.00
• Shares Outstanding: 111,430,780
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 526,378
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 512,377
• PEG Ratio: 0.95
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.93
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.07
• P/FCF Ratio: -123.40
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 4.33
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.38
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.23
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 8.36
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.12
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $7.29B

• Rating: 49 Neutral
• Price Target: $6.00 ▲(29.31% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/26/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/26/26

The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance—recent revenue declines, very thin/volatile profitability, and a return to slightly negative operating/free cash flow. Offsetting this are a constructive (but mixed) technical setup and a more positive earnings outlook focused on margin improvement and cost actions, while valuation remains a headwind due to the high P/E despite a modest dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Stronger balance sheet

The APC IPO proceeds and ~$305M cash meaningfully reduce leverage and increase liquidity, providing durable financial flexibility. Lower debt burden supports funding remodels, NTI builds and selective M&A without immediate external financing, reducing interest cost sensitivity and enabling multi-quarter strategic execution.

Dealerization cost benefits

Dealerization structurally lowers fixed site costs and maintenance CapEx, converting fixed expenses into variable economics. Those persistent cost savings enhance operating leverage, making future profitability less dependent on top-line recovery and improving the long-term ROI of the store base.

Loyalty-driven higher spend

Growing fas REWARDS enrollment and materially higher spend per member points to stickier customer behavior and improved basket economics. Loyalty-driven trip frequency and mix shift toward higher-margin CPG create a durable lever for merchandising margin expansion and resilience against fuel volume volatility.

Negative Factors

Revenue contraction

Two consecutive years of declining revenue signal persistent top-line headwinds. Reduced scale pressures gross margins and limits the payback period on remodels and NTI investments, making it harder for operational gains to translate into sustainable EBITDA growth absent a clear reversal in same-store sales trends.

Weak and inconsistent cash generation

A reversion to negative operating and free cash flow reduces internal funding for capex, debt service, and dividends. The inconsistency of cash generation increases reliance on external financing or asset recycling, constraining the company’s ability to sustainably scale remodel programs and pursue M&A over the medium term.

Thin, volatile profitability

Extremely slim and volatile margins leave little buffer against fuel margin swings, promotional pressure, or macro softness. Such low profitability increases operational risk, makes earnings sensitive to small cost or volume changes, and reduces the cushion for funding strategic initiatives without further capital.

ARKO Corp Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Arko Corp. operates convenience stores in the United States. It operates through three segments: Retail, Wholesale, and GPM Petroleum. The Retail segment engages in the sale of fuel and merchandise to retail consumers. The Wholesale segment supplies fuel to third-party dealers and consignment agents. The GPM Petroleum segment supplies fuel to independent dealers, and bulk and spot purchasers. It operates approximately 3,000 locations comprising approximately 1,400 company-operated stores and approximately 1,650 dealer sites. The company is based in Richmond, Virginia.

How the Company Makes Money

ARKO generates revenue primarily through the sale of fuel and convenience store products. The company earns income from the direct sale of gasoline and diesel at its fueling stations, which constitutes a significant portion of its revenue. Additionally, ARKO profits from the sale of convenience items such as snacks, beverages, and household goods in its stores. The company has established strategic partnerships with various fuel suppliers and retail brands, which help optimize its supply chain and enhance its competitive position. These partnerships, combined with a focus on customer loyalty programs and promotional offers, contribute to increased sales and customer retention, further bolstering ARKO's financial performance.

ARKO Corp Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Income statement trends are weak with contracting revenue and very thin, volatile margins (notably a sharp drop in EBITDA margin in 2025). While leverage improved materially in 2025, operating and free cash flow turned slightly negative again, which is a near-term financial quality concern.

Income Statement

Revenue has been contracting recently (down ~0.1% in 2024 and down ~2.5% in 2025), reversing the stronger growth posted in 2021–2022. Profitability is thin and volatile: net margin improved to ~0.46% in 2025 from ~0.24% in 2024, but remains well below 2021–2022 levels (~0.8%). Operating profitability is mixed, with EBITDA margin falling sharply in 2025 (~0.9%) versus ~2.8–3.3% in 2021–2024. Overall, earnings are positive but the business is operating with very limited margin for error amid slowing sales.

Balance Sheet

Leverage profile improved materially in 2025, with debt-to-equity dropping to ~0.43x from ~6–7x in 2020–2024, reducing financial risk. Equity remains modest relative to the asset base, but returns improved in 2025 (return on equity ~13.2%) versus 2024 (~5.5%). The key offset is the large year-to-year swing in reported leverage, which introduces uncertainty around sustainability and balance-sheet stability.

Cash Flow

Cash generation weakened significantly in 2025, with operating cash flow and free cash flow turning slightly negative (about -$4.2M), following positive free cash flow in 2022–2024. Cash flow has also been inconsistent over time (notably negative free cash flow in 2021), which reduces flexibility for reinvestment, debt service, and shareholder returns. While 2024 showed solid cash generation, the 2025 reversal is a clear near-term concern.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	7.64B	8.73B	9.41B	9.14B	7.42B
Gross Profit	0.00	397.22M	423.63M	418.55M	367.48M
EBITDA	70.57M	257.03M	265.88M	271.94M	242.28M
Net Income	35.32M	20.84M	34.37M	71.75M	59.20M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.53B	3.62B	3.65B	3.26B	2.94B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	311.47M	267.09M	222.01M	300.93M	310.95M
Total Debt	114.84M	2.58B	2.53B	2.26B	2.08B
Total Liabilities	3.17B	3.24B	3.27B	2.87B	2.59B
Stockholders Equity	267.24M	376.87M	376.10M	380.83M	353.45M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-4.17M	107.94M	24.89M	110.48M	-67.26M
Operating Cash Flow	-4.17M	221.86M	136.09M	209.26M	159.19M
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-114.86M	-296.82M	-175.49M	-171.78M
Financing Cash Flow	-18.39M	-56.00M	85.36M	10.55M	-26.38M

ARKO Corp Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 4.64
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ARKO, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 4.64 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.08, below the 50-day MA of 5.34, and below the 200-day MA of 4.76, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.21 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 52.42 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 27.48 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for ARKO.

ARKO Corp Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CASY	68 Neutral	$25.26B	41.91	16.99%	0.39%	13.33%	13.33%
ASO	67 Neutral	$4.08B	11.18	18.34%	1.04%	-0.65%	-10.35%
GPC	63 Neutral	$16.35B	250.89	1.51%	3.33%	3.26%	-25.41%
GME	62 Neutral	$10.65B	29.46	8.35%	―	-12.13%	426.82%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
ARKO	49 Neutral	$675.27M	54.11	4.94%	2.59%	-12.61%	-27.22%
AAP	48 Neutral	$3.23B	74.07	3.11%	2.53%	-19.41%	-957.94%

ARKO Corp Corporate Events

ARKO Corp Unlocks Capital Through ARKO Petroleum IPO

For the fourth quarter and full year ended Dec. 31, 2025, ARKO Corp. swung to quarterly net income of $1.9 million from a $2.3 million loss and grew full-year net income 9.1% to $22.7 million, while quarterly adjusted EBITDA rose 15.6% to $65.7 million and full-year adjusted EBITDA of $248.7 million landed above the midpoint of guidance. The company expanded merchandise and retail fuel margins despite lower fuel gallons and merchandise revenue, and its ongoing store conversion and remodel strategy — including the fas craves format launched in June 2025 — is delivering double-digit sales lifts and expected annualized operating income benefits exceeding $20 million plus over $10 million in projected G&A savings at scale.

On Feb. 13, 2026, ARKO’s subsidiary ARKO Petroleum Corp. completed an IPO that raised roughly $184 million, which the company used to reduce debt and bolster financial flexibility while retaining 75.9% of APC’s economic interests. Management highlighted the creation of two focused growth platforms, an accelerated channel-optimization plan targeting more dealer conversions and fleet fueling sites in 2026, continued investment in higher-margin retail sub-segments and new-to-industry locations, and a $0.03 per-share dividend payable March 20, 2026, underscoring a strategy aimed at reinforcing ARKO’s competitive position and cash generation in a fragmented fuel and convenience market.

The most recent analyst rating on (ARKO) stock is a Buy with a $6.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ARKO Corp stock, see the ARKO Stock Forecast page.

ARKO Corp Solidifies Control with APC IPO, Agreements

On February 13, 2026, ARKO Petroleum Corp., an indirect subsidiary of ARKO Corp., completed an initial public offering of 11,111,111 Class A shares, leaving ARKO Corp. with a controlling 75.9% economic interest and 94.0% voting power, and simultaneously put in place a suite of intercompany agreements defining management, tax, registration rights, employee matters and brand licensing. ARKO also restructured fuel supply and credit arrangements so that APC’s subsidiaries become the exclusive motor fuel distributors to ARKO’s stations for ten years, clarified how future acquisition opportunities will be shared, separated APC from certain legacy credit facilities while establishing its own revolving lines and intercompany notes, and realigned debt obligations to match the economics of APC’s business without incurring additional external borrowings.

The new fuel distribution and omnibus agreements cement APC’s role as ARKO’s sole fuel supplier for most locations, locking in long-term volume and pricing formulas that could stabilize APC’s cash flows while formalizing how convenience store and fuel distribution assets will be allocated between the entities. Parallel updates to tax, employee and insurance frameworks keep APC integrated within ARKO’s consolidated group while it transitions to stand‑alone public company status, and the credit facility amendments and intercompany notes shift collateral and repayment responsibilities internally, potentially improving transparency and capital flexibility for both ARKO and APC stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (ARKO) stock is a Buy with a $6.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ARKO Corp stock, see the ARKO Stock Forecast page.

ARKO Corp Announces Preliminary 2025 Results, APC IPO Roadshow

ARKO Corp. reported preliminary, unaudited financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, indicating that quarterly net income is expected to range from a loss of $1.8 million to income of $0.4 million, with Adjusted EBITDA between $63.1 million and $66.1 million. For full-year 2025, ARKO projected net income between $19.1 million and $21.3 million and Adjusted EBITDA between $246.0 million and $249.0 million, broadly in line with 2024 levels, and said it plans to release final results later in the quarter while also noting that subsidiary ARKO Petroleum Corp. has launched a roadshow for its initial public offering, underscoring the material role APC plays in the group’s overall performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (ARKO) stock is a Hold with a $5.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ARKO Corp stock, see the ARKO Stock Forecast page.

ARKO Subsidiary APC Files Registration for Planned IPO

On December 19, 2025, ARKO Corp. announced that its wholly owned subsidiary, ARKO Petroleum Corp. (APC), filed a registration statement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for a proposed initial public offering of its Class A common stock, consolidating ARKO’s wholesale, fleet fueling and GPM Petroleum segments under APC, which would handle wholesale fuel distribution to most of ARKO’s fuel-selling convenience stores. The company also disclosed that public warrants assumed in its December 22, 2020 business combination with Haymaker Acquisition Corp. II, exercisable at $11.50 per share and traded on Nasdaq under the symbol ARKOW, will expire at 5:00 p.m. Eastern Time on December 22, 2025, with trading already suspended as of December 18, 2025, while Nasdaq proceeds to delist and deregister the warrants; ARKO emphasized that the listing of its common stock on Nasdaq under the ticker ARKO remains unaffected, clarifying the capital structure for existing shareholders as it moves forward with the planned APC offering.

The most recent analyst rating on (ARKO) stock is a Hold with a $5.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ARKO Corp stock, see the ARKO Stock Forecast page.

ARKO Corp Appoints Yona Fogel to Board

On December 11, 2025, Steven Heyer resigned from the board of ARKO Corp due to health reasons, and on December 12, 2025, Yona Fogel was appointed as his replacement. Fogel, an experienced leader in Israel’s banking, energy, and industrial sectors, brings significant expertise to ARKO Corp, potentially enhancing its strategic initiatives and governance.

The most recent analyst rating on (ARKO) stock is a Hold with a $5.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ARKO Corp stock, see the ARKO Stock Forecast page.

ARKO Corp Appoints New CFO Galagher Jeff

ARKO Corp., a Delaware corporation, has announced the appointment of Galagher Jeff as its new Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, effective December 1, 2025. Jeff will succeed Jordan Mann, who will continue in a senior strategic role within the company. Jeff brings extensive experience from previous roles at Murphy USA, Dollar Tree, Advance Auto Parts, and Walmart. His appointment includes an executive employment agreement with a base salary of $650,000, subject to periodic review, and various incentive compensations. This strategic appointment is expected to enhance ARKO Corp.’s financial leadership and operational strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (ARKO) stock is a Hold with a $5.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ARKO Corp stock, see the ARKO Stock Forecast page.