ArcBest (ARCB) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.09B
• Dividend Yield: 0.62%
• Average Volume (3M): 375.64K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.49
• Revenue Growth: -5.34%
• EPS Growth: -48.16%
• Country: US
• Employees: 14,000
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Trucking
• EPS (TTM): 0.36
• Shares Outstanding: 22,295,803
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 307,054
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 375,636
• PEG Ratio: -0.44
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.31
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.42
• P/FCF Ratio: 14.84
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.28
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.67
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 12.30
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 10.06
• 1Y Price Target: $99.83
• Price Target Upside: 6.61% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 12
• EPS Forecast (FY): 4.49
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $4.16B

• Rating: 56 Neutral
• Price Target: $103.00 ▲(10.00% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 01/31/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 01/31/26

ARCB scores in the mid-range primarily due to weakening financial performance (shrinking revenue and sharply thinner margins) partially offset by an improving balance sheet and positive, rebounding free cash flow. Technicals are supportive with price trading above key moving averages, but valuation is a headwind given the high P/E and low dividend yield. The latest earnings call was mixed: strategic and operational progress was highlighted, yet near-term profitability guidance and recent earnings declines point to continued cycle pressure.

Positive Factors

Improving balance sheet and lower leverage

Sustained reduction in leverage and a stable equity base materially improves financial flexibility over the next several quarters. Lower debt ratios reduce refinancing and interest-rate risk, enabling continued capex, opportunistic buybacks and dividends while weathering freight-cycle softness.

Rebounding free cash flow and positive operating cash

A meaningful free-cash-flow rebound provides durable internal funding for the business and shareholder returns. Even with prior volatility, stronger FCF in 2025 supports lower reliance on external financing and funds strategic investments and capital allocation over the coming 2–6 months.

Productivity gains from AI and automation

Concrete AI/automation savings and digital adoption are structurally lowering operating costs and SG&A per shipment. These efficiencies improve unit economics across cycles, boosting margins and scalability as digital tools expand adoption and reduce labor intensity over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Shrinking revenue and materially compressed margins

Sustained revenue declines and very thin 2025 margins indicate weaker pricing power and diminished cost leverage. Over 2–6 months this limits free cash generation cadence, restrains reinvestment capacity and keeps return metrics depressed until mix or pricing recovers.

Near-term guidance implies continued profitability pressure

Management's explicit Q1 guidance for OR deterioration and potential Asset Light loss signals earnings sensitivity to seasonal and cyclical headwinds. This structural guidance gap implies continued margin pressure and volatility in reported results across the next several quarters.

Yield and mix deterioration pressure unit economics

Ongoing mix shift toward lower-ticket managed shipments and weaker yield per hundredweight is a structural headwind to margins. Even with shipment growth in Asset Light, lower revenue per shipment reduces leverage on fixed costs and can persistently suppress profitability.

ArcBest Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

ArcBest Corporation provides freight transportation and integrated logistics services. It operates through three segments: Asset-Based, ArcBest, and FleetNet. The Asset-Based segment transports general commodities, such as food, textiles, apparel, furniture, appliances, chemicals, nonbulk petroleum products, rubber, plastics, metal and metal products, wood, glass, automotive parts, machinery, and miscellaneous manufactured products through less-than-truckload services. It also offers motor carrier freight transportation services to customers in Mexico through arrangements with trucking companies. The ArcBest segment provides expedite freight transportation services to commercial and government customers; premium logistics services, such as deployment of specialized equipment to meet linehaul requirements; and international freight transportation with air, ocean, and ground services. It also offers third-party transportation brokerage services by sourcing various capacity solutions, including dry van over the road and intermodal, temperature-controlled and refrigerated, flatbed, intermodal or container shipping, and specialized equipment; full-container and less-than-container load ocean transportation services; warehousing and distribution services; managed transportation services; and moving services to 'do-it-yourself' consumer, as well as provides final mile, time critical, product launch, warehousing, retail logistics, supply chain optimization, and trade show shipping services. The FleetNet segment provides roadside repair solutions and vehicle maintenance management services for commercial and private fleets through a network of third-party service providers. The company was formerly known as Arkansas Best Corporation and changed its name to ArcBest Corporation in May 2014. ArcBest Corporation was founded in 1923 and is headquartered in Fort Smith, Arkansas.

How the Company Makes Money

ArcBest generates revenue primarily through its transportation services, which include both asset-based and asset-light solutions. The asset-based segment, which includes the LTL operations, contributes a significant portion of the company's revenue by offering freight transportation services using its own fleet. The asset-light segment generates income through brokerage services, logistics management, and intermodal transportation, allowing the company to leverage third-party carriers. Key revenue streams include LTL freight shipments, truckload services, and logistics solutions, supplemented by technology and software services that enhance supply chain efficiency. Significant partnerships with major retailers and manufacturers also bolster ArcBest's earnings, as they provide consistent shipping and logistics needs. Additionally, the company benefits from market demand fluctuations, economic conditions, and strategic investments in technology that improve operational efficiencies and customer service.

ArcBest Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Results reflect a cyclical downturn: revenue has been shrinking and profitability/margins compressed sharply into 2025 (very thin gross and net margins). Offsetting this, the balance sheet looks resilient with improving leverage, and cash generation stayed positive with a 2025 free-cash-flow rebound—though cash flow has been volatile and ROE has fallen materially.

Income Statement

Revenue has been shrinking for several years (down in 2023 and 2024, and sharply lower in 2025), and profitability has compressed meaningfully versus prior peaks. 2025 margins are especially thin (gross margin ~2.3% and net margin ~1.5%) compared with healthier levels in 2021–2022, indicating weaker pricing/cost leverage and a tougher demand environment. Offsetting this, the company remained profitable across the period, but the trajectory shows clear deterioration into 2025.

Balance Sheet

Leverage appears moderate and improving, with debt-to-equity declining from ~0.49 (2020) to ~0.25 (2025) and equity holding around ~$1.3B. Total assets have been relatively stable, suggesting balance-sheet resilience through the cycle. The key weakness is return on equity trending down materially (from strong levels in 2021–2022 to ~4.6% in 2025), reflecting weaker earnings power rather than balance-sheet strain.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow remains solid and positive, and free cash flow rebounded strongly in 2025 (up materially year-over-year) with free cash flow of ~$114M. However, cash conversion is mixed: free cash flow has been volatile (notably weaker in 2023–2024), and 2025 free cash flow is about half of net income, indicating less consistent conversion than in 2020–2022. Overall, liquidity generation is a support, but durability/consistency is the main concern.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.01B	4.18B	4.43B	5.03B	3.77B
Gross Profit	90.31M	350.00M	378.43M	573.52M	406.33M
EBITDA	265.79M	376.78M	341.74M	536.07M	406.22M
Net Income	60.10M	173.96M	195.43M	298.21M	213.52M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.45B	2.43B	2.49B	2.49B	2.11B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	124.23M	157.20M	330.07M	325.93M	124.96M
Total Debt	668.92M	413.48M	437.73M	438.68M	337.11M
Total Liabilities	1.16B	1.12B	1.24B	1.34B	1.18B
Stockholders Equity	1.30B	1.31B	1.24B	1.15B	929.07M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	114.18M	45.85M	90.17M	305.31M	245.04M
Operating Cash Flow	228.95M	285.85M	322.17M	470.82M	323.51M
Investing Cash Flow	-76.70M	-187.28M	-21.70M	-261.08M	-303.20M
Financing Cash Flow	-177.66M	-233.35M	-196.61M	-127.98M	-247.65M

ArcBest Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 93.64
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ARCB, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 93.64 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 101.66, below the 50-day MA of 94.47, and above the 200-day MA of 77.57, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.20 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.45 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 22.65 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for ARCB.

ArcBest Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
CVLG	60 Neutral	$662.19M	76.15	6.84%	1.23%	1.62%	-22.52%
HTLD	58 Neutral	$776.87M	-13.41	-6.71%	0.87%	-19.56%	-54.39%
ARCB	56 Neutral	$2.09B	-51.41	4.61%	0.62%	-5.34%	-48.16%
MRTN	54 Neutral	$1.02B	53.18	2.27%	2.07%	-9.74%	-42.57%
ULH	52 Neutral	$396.57M	-2.07	-6.38%	2.76%	-7.55%	-130.67%
WERN	49 Neutral	$1.86B	-126.32	1.78%	1.84%	-3.42%	-43.86%

ArcBest Corporate Events

ArcBest Announces Preliminary Q1 2026 Operating Metrics

ArcBest reported preliminary operating metrics for the first two months of the first quarter of 2026, covering the period from Jan. 1 through Feb. 28, showing modest year‑over‑year revenue growth and shifting freight dynamics in both its asset‑based and asset‑light segments. In the asset‑based unit, billed revenue per day was up 1% for the quarter to date, driven by 6% higher tonnage per day and 2% more daily shipments, while revenue per hundredweight fell 5% due to freight‑profile changes and lower fuel surcharge revenue, though sequential February trends showed firmer pricing and improved revenue per hundredweight relative to January.

Management noted that the expected first‑quarter operating ratio deterioration in the asset‑based business should be less severe than its typical seasonal pattern, reflecting both a softer‑than‑usual fourth quarter and ongoing industry softness. In the asset‑light segment, daily revenue grew 6% year over year for the quarter to date on a 13% increase in shipments, but revenue per shipment declined 7% as growth was led by lower‑ticket Managed services, and the company projected non‑GAAP operating income of up to $2 million, emphasizing continued cost control and yield discipline to support sustainable profitability.

The most recent analyst rating on (ARCB) stock is a Hold with a $110.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ArcBest stock, see the ARCB Stock Forecast page.

ArcBest refreshes board with new independent directors

On January 26, 2026, ArcBest’s board expanded from eleven to thirteen members with the appointment of Ann G. Bordelon, a seasoned finance executive and CPA, and Bobby K. George, a veteran technology and digital innovation leader, as independent directors and Audit Committee members, moves intended to deepen the board’s financial and IT expertise as the company executes its growth and digital transformation strategy. The company also disclosed that longtime directors Fredrik J. Eliasson and Kathleen D. McElligott will retire from the board effective February 28, 2026, following the previously announced retirement of director Craig E. Philip on January 28, 2026, after which the board will contract to ten members, eight of them independent, reflecting a broader board refresh and governance effort that balances continuity with new skills for overseeing ArcBest’s evolving logistics business and long-term value creation for shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (ARCB) stock is a Hold with a $93.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ArcBest stock, see the ARCB Stock Forecast page.

ArcBest Board Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend for Shareholders

On January 27, 2026, ArcBest announced that its Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.12 per share on its common stock, payable on February 24, 2026 to shareholders of record as of February 10, 2026. The dividend underscores the company’s ongoing capital return strategy and signals confidence in its financial position, offering income to shareholders while reinforcing ArcBest’s standing as a stable player in the logistics and supply chain sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (ARCB) stock is a Buy with a $96.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ArcBest stock, see the ARCB Stock Forecast page.