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Apollo Global Management LLC (APO)
NYSE:APO
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Apollo Global Management
(NYSE:APO)
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Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:
$150.00
▲(19.66% Upside)
The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (strong growth and ROE, but weaker cash-flow trends) and a very positive earnings outlook with upbeat 2026 growth guidance. Technicals are supportive with an uptrend across moving averages, while valuation is acceptable but not particularly cheap and the dividend yield is modest.
Positive Factors
Record Assets Under Management
The significant growth in assets under management indicates strong market positioning and the ability to attract and manage large-scale investments, which is crucial for sustained revenue growth.
Innovative Strategies and New Opportunities
Expanding into new markets like 401(k) plans can diversify revenue streams and capture new customer segments, enhancing long-term growth potential.
Strong Fee-Related Earnings Growth
The robust growth in fee-related earnings reflects effective management and strong demand for Apollo's investment products, supporting sustainable profitability.
Negative Factors
Decline in Free Cash Flow
A significant decline in free cash flow could limit Apollo's ability to invest in growth opportunities and manage debt, impacting long-term financial flexibility.
High Reliance on Debt
High reliance on debt can pose risks if market conditions change, potentially affecting Apollo's financial stability and ability to leverage opportunities.
Prepayment Headwinds
Prepayment headwinds can affect the yield on investments, potentially reducing income and impacting Apollo's ability to meet financial targets.
Apollo Global Management (APO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$72.64B
Dividend Yield1.34%
Average Volume (3M)3.92M
Price to Earnings (P/E)22.6
Beta (1Y)1.81
Revenue Growth-13.27%
EPS Growth-28.74%
CountryUS
Employees5,141
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryAsset Management - Global
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.47
Shares Outstanding580,422,550
10 Day Avg. Volume5,814,088
30 Day Avg. Volume3,923,349
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-18.14
Price to Book (P/B)3.77
Price to Sales (P/S)2.90
P/FCF Ratio0.00
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.90
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.16
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.44
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.25
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$162.82Price Target Upside29.88% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)9.24
Revenue Forecast (FY)$23.23B
Apollo Global Management Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionApollo Global Management, Inc. is a private equity firm specializing in investments in credit, private equity and real estate markets. The firm's private equity investments include traditional buyouts, recapitalization, distressed buyouts and debt investments in real estate, corporate partner buyouts, distressed asset, corporate carve-outs, middle market, growth capital, turnaround, bridge, corporate restructuring, special situation, acquisition, and industry consolidation transactions. The firm provides its services to endowment and sovereign wealth funds, as well as other institutional and individual investors. It manages client focused portfolios. The firm launches and manages hedge funds for its clients. It also manages real estate funds and private equity funds for its clients. The firm invests in the fixed income and alternative investment markets across the globe. Its fixed income investments include income-oriented senior loans, bonds, collateralized loan obligations, structured credit, opportunistic credit, non-performing loans, distressed debt, mezzanine debt, and value oriented fixed income securities. The firm seeks to invest in chemicals, commodities, consumer and retail, oil and gas, metals, mining, agriculture, commodities, distribution and transportation, financial and business services, manufacturing and industrial, media distribution, cable, entertainment and leisure, telecom, technology, natural resources, energy, packaging and materials, and satellite and wireless industries. It seeks to invest in companies based in across Africa, North America with a focus on United States, and Europe. The firm also makes investments outside North America, primarily in Western Europe and Asia. It employs a combination of contrarian, value, and distressed strategies to make its investments. The firm seeks to make investments in the range of $10 million and $1500 million. The firm seeks to invest in companies with Enterprise value between $750 million to $2500 million. The firm conducts an in-house research to create its investment portfolio. It seeks to acquire minority and majority positions in its portfolio companies. Apollo Global Management, Inc. was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in New York, New York with additional offices in North America, Asia and Europe.
How the Company Makes MoneyApollo Global Management generates revenue primarily through management fees and performance-based earnings from its investment funds. The company charges management fees, typically a percentage of the assets under management (AUM), for overseeing and managing its investment portfolios. Additionally, Apollo earns performance fees, or carried interest, when its investments exceed a certain benchmark, thus aligning its interests with those of its investors. Significant revenue streams include private equity fund management, credit fund management, and real estate fund management. Apollo also benefits from strategic partnerships with various institutional investors and corporations, which help facilitate capital raising and investment opportunities, further contributing to its earnings.
Apollo Global Management Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Gross Profit by Segment
Reveals gross profit margins in different segments, offering insight into operational efficiency and profitability across the company's diverse operations.
Reveals gross profit margins in different segments, offering insight into operational efficiency and profitability across the company's diverse operations.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyApollo Global Management Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 09, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlights robust, broad-based growth across origination, fee generation, AUM, and capital formation with multiple record metrics (FRE, inflows, origination). Management provided constructive 2026 guidance (20%+ FRE growth; 10% SRE growth) and emphasized disciplined positioning (low software exposure, defensive Athene liquidity, principal mindset). Headwinds include sector-specific volatility (software), non-traded BDC market stress, elevated near-term expenses from strategic investments and acquisitions, and inherent unpredictability of performance fees. On balance, the positive operational and financial momentum, clear multi-year targets, and strong inflows materially outweigh the identified risks and near-term challenges.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Earnings and Adjusted Net Income Growth
Full-year adjusted net income of $5.2 billion, up 14% year over year; record combined fee-related earnings (FRE) and spread-related earnings (SRE) of $5.9 billion for the year.
Strong Fee-Related Earnings (FRE) Expansion
FRE of $2.5 billion for the year, up 23% year over year; FRE margin ~57% stable year over year; management expects 20%+ FRE growth in 2026.
Robust Spread-Related Earnings (SRE) and Athene Performance
Full-year SRE of $3.4 billion (normalized +9% year over year); Athene net invested assets up 18% to $292 billion; Q4 blended net spread ex-notables ~120 bps (vs 121 bps prior quarter); Athene expects ~10% SRE growth in 2026 assuming 11% alts return.
Exceptional Origination Volume
Originations exceeded $305 billion for 2025 (Marc: crossed the $300B mark), up nearly 40% year over year; $282 billion of origination was debt, ~80% investment grade and ~20% sub-investment grade.
Record Capital Formation and Inflows
Record firm-wide inflows of $228 billion for the year, including $42 billion in Q4; organic inflows of $182 billion for the year; Asset Management organic inflows $100 billion (75% to credit strategies) and Athene inflows $83 billion.
AUM and Fee-Generating AUM Expansion
Total AUM increased 25% year over year to $938 billion; fee-generating AUM increased 25% to $79 billion (Martin Kelly comment).
Strong Product and Strategy Performance
ADS (largest private markets direct lending vehicle) exceeds $25 billion with ~8% return for the quarter/year; AAA hybrid strategy exceeds ~$25 billion with 12% inception-to-date return, 43 of 44 positive quarters and 23 consecutive positive quarters; Fund XIII delivered 22% net IRR (Fund X context).
Capital Return and Shareholder Actions
Returned approximately $1.5 billion to shareholders via dividends and repurchases in 2025; announced a 10% increase in annual dividend from $2.04 to $2.25 beginning 2026.
Fee Diversification and Transaction Activity
Capital solutions fees reached $226 million in Q4 and exceeded $800 million for the full year; ~430 transactions in 2025 with ~60% credit-driven activity; fee-related performance fees grew 28% year over year.
Clear 2026 Guidance and Multi-Year Targets
Management reaffirms medium-term targets: 20%+ FRE growth in 2026, 10% SRE growth in 2026 and average through 2029 (assuming execution), and an expected multiyear tax rate of ~20%.
Negative Updates
Software Sector Volatility and Market Dispersion
Recent public-market repricing in software created near-term volatility and dispersion across managers; while Apollo stresses low exposure (software <2% of AUM; PE/growth software exposure rounds to zero; Athene ~0.5% de minimis), the sector risk is a headline concern for the industry and has affected some non-traded BDCs and private credit channels.
Non-Traded BDC/ADS Market Pressure and Redemption Activity
Broader non-traded BDC market has experienced slower sales and increased redemptions; although Apollo states ADS has resilient flows (net inflows historically, selective software exposure), market turbulence in that space remains a potential headwind.
Rising Fee-Related Expenses and Investment Costs
Q4 growth in fee-related expenses driven by the full-quarter impact of Bridge acquisition (~$105 million revenue and $60 million expenses in first four months post-acquisition), senior hires, and infrastructure (technology, AI/data) investments; management expects low double-digit growth in non-comp costs and high-teens comp growth in some areas.
Uncertainty in Performance Fees
Realized performance fees can be volatile and hard to predict (Q4 realized performance fees $588 million); management describes performance fees as the most unpredictable part of the earnings stream and expects variability quarter-to-quarter.
Short-Term Drag from Defensive Positioning at Athene
Athene holds a defensive liquidity position with ~$24 billion in cash, treasuries, and agencies—positioning described as a short-term drag on returns while providing redeployment flexibility.
Competitive and Liability-Driven Pressures
Competition in certain retail/broker channels and some entrants paying higher cost of funds could pressure spreads; cost of funds has generally increased with bond yields and remains a factor to manage versus asset yields.
Transaction Transfer Not Fully Additive to SRE
ARI/ARI-related $9 billion CM loan acquisition to Athene will displace some other lending and is embedded in 10% SRE guidance rather than being purely additive, meaning limited incremental SRE upside from that transfer.
Regulatory/Market Adoption Path for 401(k) and DC
Adoption of alternatives within 401(k)/defined contribution markets is expected to require rulemaking or clearer guidance; growth is promising but timing and scale are dependent on regulatory clarity and product adaptation (daily NAV/liquidity).
Company Guidance
Management guided to continued strong 2026 growth, calling for Asset Management FRE to grow 20%+ and Retirement Services SRE to grow about 10% (reaffirmed through ’29), which they quantify as roughly $3.85 billion of SRE in 2026 assuming an 11% alternatives return; for context, 2025 produced FRE of $2.5 billion (+23% YoY) and SRE of $3.4 billion (combined FRE+SRE $5.9 billion) with adjusted net income of $5.2 billion ($8.38/share). They expect roughly $85 billion of Athene inflows in 2026 and more organic inflows across Asset Management after record $228 billion total inflows in 2025 ($182 billion organic; Q4 $42 billion), with AUM at $938 billion (fee‑generating AUM $79 billion). Operational and margin assumptions include a ~57% FRE margin (ex‑Bridge margin up ~50 bps), targeted ~100 bps of FRE margin expansion per year, blended net spread around 120 bps, origination of $305 billion in 2025 (IG excess spread ~290 bps vs. Treasuries; sub‑IG ~490 bps), ADS and AAA each >$25 billion (ADS ~8% return; AAA 12% inception‑to‑date), a 10% dividend increase to $2.25 (from $2.04) and continued buybacks, and guidance for low‑double‑digit non‑comp expense growth with some compensation lines growing in the high teens.Apollo Global Management Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Overall financials are solid: strong revenue growth (TTM +8.51%) and very high gross margin (95.14%) support earnings power, and ROE is strong (21.78%). Offsetting this, profitability has compressed (net margin down to 12.89% TTM) and cash flow quality weakened with a sharp TTM free-cash-flow decline (-37.61%) and very low operating cash flow to net income (0.014).Income Statement
Apollo Global Management shows strong revenue growth with an 8.51% increase in TTM, indicating robust business expansion. The gross profit margin remains high at 95.14%, reflecting efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin has decreased from 16.95% in 2024 to 12.89% in TTM, suggesting some pressure on profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy, though slightly lower than previous years, indicating solid operational performance.85
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
The company's debt-to-equity ratio is stable at 0.63, showing a balanced approach to leveraging. Return on equity is strong at 21.78%, reflecting effective use of shareholder funds. The equity ratio is relatively low, indicating a high reliance on debt, which could pose risks if market conditions change.78
Positive
Cash Flow
Free cash flow has decreased significantly by 37.61% in TTM, which could impact future investments and debt repayments. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is low at 0.014, suggesting potential issues in converting income into cash. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio remains at 1.0, indicating that the company generates sufficient cash to cover its net income.70
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 30.30B | 26.11B | 32.64B | 10.97B | 5.95B |
| Gross Profit | 26.80B | 24.97B | 31.62B | 10.04B | 5.17B |
| EBITDA | 10.49B | 8.85B | 6.65B | -3.50B | 5.79B |
| Net Income | 4.48B | 4.43B | 4.88B | -1.96B | 1.84B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 460.95B | 377.89B | 313.49B | 257.22B | 30.50B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 20.59B | 205.98B | 170.24B | 127.37B | 1.38B |
| Total Debt | 13.36B | 10.59B | 8.09B | 7.19B | 14.19B |
| Total Liabilities | 418.43B | 346.92B | 288.24B | 241.82B | 18.54B |
| Stockholders Equity | 23.34B | 17.25B | 14.04B | 6.64B | 3.79B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 0.00 | 3.25B | 6.32B | 3.59B | 999.31M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 0.00 | 3.25B | 6.32B | 3.79B | 1.06B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -61.80B | -42.41B | -23.44B | -1.55B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 0.00 | 57.97B | 42.64B | 28.71B | 109.00M |
Apollo Global Management Technical Analysis
Negative
125.36
Price Trends
140.28
Negative
134.28
Negative
136.60
Negative
Market Momentum
-3.90
Positive
36.68
Neutral
16.27
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For APO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 125.36 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 132.01, below the 50-day MA of 140.28, and below the 200-day MA of 136.60, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -3.90 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.68 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 16.27 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for APO.
Apollo Global Management Risk Analysis
Apollo Global Management disclosed 41 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Apollo Global Management reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Apollo Global Management Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $72.64B | 22.59 | 16.78% | 1.34% | -13.27% | -28.74% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
67 Neutral | $91.42B | 43.82 | 9.12% | 0.56% | -33.80% | -24.81% | |
66 Neutral | $42.63B | 66.52 | ― | 2.65% | 50.70% | 7.32% | |
65 Neutral | $18.84B | 120.80 | ― | 5.45% | 27.24% | -59.82% | |
59 Neutral | $19.55B | 24.88 | 12.77% | 2.30% | -24.62% | 437.16% | |
58 Neutral | $17.73B | 104.50 | 14.28% | 3.03% | 25.02% | 235.70% |
* Financial Sector Average
APO
Apollo Global Management
125.36
-30.30
-19.47%
KKR
KKR & Co
103.60
-30.11
-22.52%
CG
Carlyle Group
54.90
4.57
9.08%
ARES
Ares Management
133.97
-40.89
-23.38%
OWL
Blue Owl Capital
12.31
-9.94
-44.67%
TPG
TPG
47.94
-8.59
-15.20%
Apollo Global Management Corporate Events
Financial Disclosures
Apollo Global Issues Preliminary Q4 2025 Investment Income Estimates
Positive
Jan 2, 2026
Apollo Global Management and its subsidiary Athene Holding Ltd. reported preliminary estimates for alternative net investment income for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2025, ahead of their scheduled February 9, 2026 earnings release. The company expects approximately $325 million in pre-tax alternative net investment income for the quarter, implying an annualized 10% return on alternative net investments, with Athene’s pooled investment vehicle also estimated to return 10% annualized and its other alternative investments, including retirement services platforms, estimated at a 7% annualized return; management emphasized these figures are unaudited, subject to normal closing procedures and potential material adjustments, and cautioned investors against relying on them as a substitute for full U.S. GAAP financial statements.
The most recent analyst rating on (APO) stock is a Buy with a $165.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Apollo Global Management stock, see the APO Stock Forecast page.
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Apollo Global Management Approves $23.5M in RSUs for Executives
Positive
Dec 12, 2025
On December 9, 2025, Apollo Global Management‘s Compensation Committee approved significant restricted share units (RSUs) for its Chief Financial Officer, Martin Kelly, and Chief Legal Officer, Whitney Chatterjee, valued at $10 million and $13.5 million respectively. These RSUs are part of a strategic move to retain key executives and align their compensation with industry peers during a crucial growth phase. The RSUs will vest based on performance criteria and are designed to emphasize long-term value creation and shareholder alignment. Additionally, the committee allowed executive officers to defer equity awards, with Scott Kleinman opting to defer a portion of his 2021 RSU Awards, extending his alignment with shareholders beyond the initial settlement date.
The most recent analyst rating on (APO) stock is a Buy with a $150.33 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Apollo Global Management stock, see the APO Stock Forecast page.
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Apollo Global Management Clarifies 8-K Filing Status
Neutral
Nov 24, 2025
Apollo Global Management‘s recent announcement clarifies that the information provided in their current report on Form 8-K is not considered ‘filed’ for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. This clarification means that the information is not subject to the liabilities of that section unless specifically referenced in future filings.
The most recent analyst rating on (APO) stock is a Buy with a $180.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Apollo Global Management stock, see the APO Stock Forecast page.
Private Placements and Financing
Apollo Global Management Issues Senior Notes Offering
Neutral
Nov 7, 2025
On November 7, 2025, Apollo Global Management issued $400 million of 4.600% Senior Notes due 2031 and an additional $350 million of 5.150% Senior Notes due 2035 as part of a public offering. The proceeds from this offering are intended for general corporate purposes, potentially enhancing the company’s financial flexibility and market positioning.
The most recent analyst rating on (APO) stock is a Buy with a $158.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Apollo Global Management stock, see the APO Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.