Apollo Global Management LLC (APO)
NYSE:APO
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Apollo Global Management
(NYSE:APO)
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$123.00
â–˛(14.91% Upside)
Action:UpgradedDate:04/02/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (strong profitability and improved leverage, with materially stronger 2025 cash generation) and a positive earnings outlook with explicit 2026 growth guidance. These positives are tempered by weaker technicals (below key longer-term moving averages and negative MACD) and only moderate valuation support (P/E ~19.6, ~1.83% yield).
Positive Factors
Scale & recurring fee base from record inflows and AUM
Record $228B inflows and near-$1T AUM materially expand Apollo’s recurring management fee base and diversify client commitments. Large AUM stabilizes fee revenue, supports product distribution across credit/private markets, and underpins durable earnings power even if performance fees fluctuate.
Negative Factors
Volatility and unpredictability of performance fees
Material reliance on performance fees introduces earnings volatility, complicating cash flow forecasting and capital allocation. Large swings in realized carried interest can meaningfully alter free cash flow and distributable earnings year-to-year, limiting visibility for investors and management planning.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Scale & recurring fee base from record inflows and AUM
Record $228B inflows and near-$1T AUM materially expand Apollo’s recurring management fee base and diversify client commitments. Large AUM stabilizes fee revenue, supports product distribution across credit/private markets, and underpins durable earnings power even if performance fees fluctuate.
Read all positive factors
Apollo Global Management (APO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$61.90B
Dividend Yield1.34%
Average Volume (3M)6.52M
Price to Earnings (P/E)19.6
Beta (1Y)1.71
Revenue Growth-13.27%
EPS Growth-28.74%
CountryUS
Employees5,141
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryAsset Management - Global
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.47
Shares Outstanding578,247,300
10 Day Avg. Volume5,332,066
30 Day Avg. Volume6,520,657
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-18.14
Price to Book (P/B)3.77
Price to Sales (P/S)2.90
P/FCF Ratio11.81
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.91
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.86
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.10
Enterprise Value/Ebitda5.36
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$152.58Price Target Upside42.54% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering12
EPS Forecast (FY)9.2
Revenue Forecast (FY)$23.34B
Apollo Global Management Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Apollo Global Management, Inc. is a private equity firm specializing in investments in credit, private equity and real estate markets. The firm's private equity investments include traditional buyouts, recapitalization, distressed buyouts and debt...
How the Company Makes Money
Apollo makes money primarily from (1) asset management and advisory fees earned for managing client capital, (2) performance-based revenues earned when investments generate returns above agreed thresholds, and (3) earnings generated through its re...
Apollo Global Management Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Gross Profit by Segment
Reveals gross profit margins in different segments, offering insight into operational efficiency and profitability across the company's diverse operations.
Reveals gross profit margins in different segments, offering insight into operational efficiency and profitability across the company's diverse operations.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyApollo Global Management Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 09, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlights robust, broad-based growth across origination, fee generation, AUM, and capital formation with multiple record metrics (FRE, inflows, origination). Management provided constructive 2026 guidance (20%+ FRE growth; 10% SRE growth) and emphasized disciplined positioning (low software exposure, defensive Athene liquidity, principal mindset). Headwinds include sector-specific volatility (software), non-traded BDC market stress, elevated near-term expenses from strategic investments and acquisitions, and inherent unpredictability of performance fees. On balance, the positive operational and financial momentum, clear multi-year targets, and strong inflows materially outweigh the identified risks and near-term challenges.Positive Updates
Record Earnings and Adjusted Net Income Growth
Full-year adjusted net income of $5.2 billion, up 14% year over year; record combined fee-related earnings (FRE) and spread-related earnings (SRE) of $5.9 billion for the year.
Negative Updates
Software Sector Volatility and Market Dispersion
Recent public-market repricing in software created near-term volatility and dispersion across managers; while Apollo stresses low exposure (software <2% of AUM; PE/growth software exposure rounds to zero; Athene ~0.5% de minimis), the sector risk is a headline concern for the industry and has affected some non-traded BDCs and private credit channels.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Earnings and Adjusted Net Income Growth
Full-year adjusted net income of $5.2 billion, up 14% year over year; record combined fee-related earnings (FRE) and spread-related earnings (SRE) of $5.9 billion for the year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided to continued strong 2026 growth, calling for Asset Management FRE to grow 20%+ and Retirement Services SRE to grow about 10% (reaffirmed through ’29), which they quantify as roughly $3.85 billion of SRE in 2026 assuming an 11% alternatives return; for context, 2025 produced FRE of $2.5 billion (+23% YoY) and SRE of $3.4 billion (combined FRE+SRE $5.9 billion) with adjusted net income of $5.2 billion ($8.38/share). They expect roughly $85 billion of Athene inflows in 2026 and more organic inflows across Asset Management after record $228 billion total inflows in 2025 ($182 billion organic; Q4 $42 billion), with AUM at $938 billion (fee‑generating AUM $79 billion). Operational and margin assumptions include a ~57% FRE margin (ex‑Bridge margin up ~50 bps), targeted ~100 bps of FRE margin expansion per year, blended net spread around 120 bps, origination of $305 billion in 2025 (IG excess spread ~290 bps vs. Treasuries; sub‑IG ~490 bps), ADS and AAA each >$25 billion (ADS ~8% return; AAA 12% inception‑to‑date), a 10% dividend increase to $2.25 (from $2.04) and continued buybacks, and guidance for low‑double‑digit non‑comp expense growth with some compensation lines growing in the high teens.Apollo Global Management Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 30.30B | 26.11B | 32.64B | 10.97B | 5.95B |
| Gross Profit | 26.80B | 24.97B | 31.62B | 10.04B | 5.17B |
| EBITDA | 10.49B | 8.85B | 6.65B | -3.50B | 5.79B |
| Net Income | 4.48B | 4.43B | 4.88B | -1.96B | 1.84B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 460.95B | 377.89B | 313.49B | 257.22B | 30.50B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 248.06B | 205.98B | 170.24B | 127.37B | 1.38B |
| Total Debt | 13.36B | 10.59B | 8.09B | 7.19B | 14.19B |
| Total Liabilities | 418.43B | 346.92B | 288.24B | 241.82B | 18.54B |
| Stockholders Equity | 23.34B | 17.25B | 14.04B | 6.64B | 3.79B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 7.45B | 3.25B | 6.32B | 3.59B | 999.31M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 7.45B | 3.25B | 6.32B | 3.79B | 1.06B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -61.24B | -61.80B | -42.41B | -23.44B | -1.55B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 57.27B | 57.97B | 42.64B | 28.71B | 109.00M |
Apollo Global Management Technical Analysis
Negative
107.04
Price Trends
117.91
Negative
128.90
Negative
132.77
Negative
Market Momentum
-2.04
Negative
40.88
Neutral
50.05
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For APO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 107.04 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 108.57, below the 50-day MA of 117.91, and below the 200-day MA of 132.77, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 40.88 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 50.05 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for APO.
Apollo Global Management Risk Analysis
Apollo Global Management disclosed 40 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Apollo Global Management reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Apollo Global Management Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $61.90B | 19.64 | 21.40% | 1.34% | -13.27% | -28.74% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
67 Neutral | $33.75B | 66.62 | 12.01% | 2.65% | 50.70% | 7.32% | |
66 Neutral | $13.32B | 128.08 | 3.43% | 5.45% | 27.24% | -59.82% | |
60 Neutral | $16.81B | 26.29 | 14.18% | 2.30% | -24.62% | 437.16% | |
59 Neutral | $14.79B | 31.80 | 16.10% | 3.03% | 25.02% | 235.70% | |
57 Neutral | $81.34B | 24.79 | 8.15% | 0.56% | -33.80% | -24.81% |
* Financial Sector Average
APO
Apollo Global Management
107.04
-4.51
-4.04%
KKR
KKR & Co
91.23
-5.70
-5.88%
CG
Carlyle Group
46.55
10.58
29.41%
ARES
Ares Management
102.43
-18.25
-15.12%
OWL
Blue Owl Capital
8.57
-6.93
-44.71%
TPG
TPG
38.49
-2.08
-5.12%
Apollo Global Management Corporate Events
Financial Disclosures
Apollo Reports Strong Preliminary Q1 Alternative Investment Returns
Positive
Apr 1, 2026
Apollo Global Management and its retirement services subsidiary Athene reported preliminary estimates for alternative net investment income of about $205 million pre-tax for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, implying a 6% annualized return on alte...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Apollo Global Issues $750 Million Senior Notes Offering
Positive
Mar 30, 2026
On March 30, 2026, Apollo Global Management, Inc. issued $750 million of 5.700% senior notes due 2036 in a previously announced underwritten public offering, with interest payable semi-annually beginning September 30, 2026. The notes, sold off an ...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Apollo Global Mourns Director David Simon’s Passing
Negative
Mar 24, 2026
Apollo Global Management, Inc. announced that independent director David Simon, who had served on its board and that of its predecessor since June 2021, passed away on March 22, 2026. The company expressed deep regret at his death, extended condol...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Apollo Global Issues Clarifying Regulation FD Disclosure 8-K
Neutral
Feb 19, 2026
Apollo Global Management furnished information in a Current Report on Form 8-K, clarifying that the material is not deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. The company also indicated that this ...
Financial Disclosures
Apollo Global Issues Preliminary Q4 2025 Investment Income Estimates
Positive
Jan 2, 2026
Apollo Global Management and its subsidiary Athene Holding Ltd. reported preliminary estimates for alternative net investment income for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2025, ahead of their scheduled February 9, 2026 earnings release. The co...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.