Apollo Global Management (APO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $59.82B
• Dividend Yield: 1.34%
• Average Volume (3M): 6.32M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 19.6
• Beta (1Y): 1.80
• Revenue Growth: -13.27%
• EPS Growth: -28.74%
• Country: US
• Employees: 5,141
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Asset Management - Global
• EPS (TTM): 2.47
• Shares Outstanding: 578,247,300
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 6,344,515
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 6,323,866
• PEG Ratio: -18.14
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.77
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.90
• P/FCF Ratio: 11.81
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.91
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.79
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.02
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 5.17
• 1Y Price Target: $158.45
• Price Target Upside: 53.17% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 11
• EPS Forecast (FY): 9.25
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $23.34B

• Rating: 72 Outperform
• Price Target: $111.00 ▲(7.30% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/26/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/26/26

The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (strong 2025 profitability and cash generation with improved leverage) and a bullish earnings outlook with clear growth guidance. These positives are tempered by weak technical trend/momentum signals and only moderate valuation support.

Positive Factors

Strong cash generation

Apollo’s operating and free cash flow both rose to about $7.25B in 2025, and free cash flow matched net income. This durable cash-generation improvement supports recurring fee reinvestment, capital returns, and balance sheet flexibility, reducing reliance on volatile realized performance fees over multi-year cycles.

Scale and record AUM/inflows

Record inflows and 25% AUM growth materially expand Apollo’s recurring fee base. Large, diversified AUM increases predictable management fee revenue, deepens distribution, and provides scale advantages across credit, PE, and real assets that drive durable fee-related earnings and origination pipelines.

Product/regulatory expansion into UK DC

FCA authorization for a Diversified Credit LTAF opens access to UK defined contribution pensions, a structurally large distribution channel. Regulatory approval lowers a durable barrier to scale in DC markets and positions Apollo to capture long-term fee-generating flows into private credit.

Negative Factors

Performance fee and cash flow volatility

Performance fees are inherently lumpy and unpredictable, creating material earnings volatility quarter-to-quarter. That cyclicality complicates forward planning, budgeting, and the sustainability of discretionary returns to shareholders, leaving core profitability dependent on variable realized gains across market cycles.

Legal and reputational risk

A proposed class action alleging concealment of past business dealings creates tangible legal, settlement, and reputational risk. Such litigation can divert management attention, raise compliance costs, and limit strategic flexibility or M&A activity, imposing multi‑month to multi‑year uncertainty on governance and costs.

Balance-sheet complexity and legacy leverage

Apollo’s very large, complex balance sheet and history of elevated leverage increase systemic and operational risk. Size and structured exposures complicate liquidity management and counterparty dynamics; in stressed markets this complexity can amplify losses or require conservative positioning that dampens returns.

Apollo Global Management Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Apollo Global Management, Inc. is a private equity firm specializing in investments in credit, private equity and real estate markets. The firm's private equity investments include traditional buyouts, recapitalization, distressed buyouts and debt investments in real estate, corporate partner buyouts, distressed asset, corporate carve-outs, middle market, growth capital, turnaround, bridge, corporate restructuring, special situation, acquisition, and industry consolidation transactions. The firm provides its services to endowment and sovereign wealth funds, as well as other institutional and individual investors. It manages client focused portfolios. The firm launches and manages hedge funds for its clients. It also manages real estate funds and private equity funds for its clients. The firm invests in the fixed income and alternative investment markets across the globe. Its fixed income investments include income-oriented senior loans, bonds, collateralized loan obligations, structured credit, opportunistic credit, non-performing loans, distressed debt, mezzanine debt, and value oriented fixed income securities. The firm seeks to invest in chemicals, commodities, consumer and retail, oil and gas, metals, mining, agriculture, commodities, distribution and transportation, financial and business services, manufacturing and industrial, media distribution, cable, entertainment and leisure, telecom, technology, natural resources, energy, packaging and materials, and satellite and wireless industries. It seeks to invest in companies based in across Africa, North America with a focus on United States, and Europe. The firm also makes investments outside North America, primarily in Western Europe and Asia. It employs a combination of contrarian, value, and distressed strategies to make its investments. The firm seeks to make investments in the range of $10 million and $1500 million. The firm seeks to invest in companies with Enterprise value between $750 million to $2500 million. The firm conducts an in-house research to create its investment portfolio. It seeks to acquire minority and majority positions in its portfolio companies. Apollo Global Management, Inc. was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in New York, New York with additional offices in North America, Asia and Europe.

How the Company Makes Money

Apollo makes money primarily from (1) asset management and advisory fees earned for managing client capital, (2) performance-based revenues earned when investments generate returns above agreed thresholds, and (3) earnings generated through its retirement services operations (Athene), where Apollo invests the assets supporting annuity liabilities. 1) Management fees (recurring fee revenue): Apollo earns base fees for managing assets in its funds and accounts across credit, private equity, and real assets. These fees are typically calculated as a percentage of assets under management (AUM) or, depending on the product, on committed capital, invested capital, or net asset value. This is generally the most stable and recurring component of revenue because it is tied to AUM levels. 2) Performance fees / carried interest (variable, investment-outcome dependent): For certain strategies—commonly private equity and some opportunistic credit/real asset vehicles—Apollo can earn incentive compensation (carried interest/performance fees) when investment returns exceed contractual benchmarks or hurdle rates. This revenue is less predictable because it depends on investment performance, asset realizations, and market conditions. 3) Retirement services earnings via Athene (spread-based economics): Through Athene, Apollo earns money from the economics of writing retirement savings products (such as fixed and fixed indexed annuities) and investing the associated float (the assets backing policyholder obligations). Earnings are driven by the spread between the yield on invested assets and the crediting rates and costs owed to policyholders, along with fee-based income from certain products and reinsurance-related economics. Apollo’s investment management capabilities are central to sourcing and managing the assets that support these liabilities. 4) Other revenue sources (as applicable, depending on period and disclosures): Apollo may also generate revenue from transaction-related fees and other investment management/advisory income associated with fundraising, underwriting, syndication, deal execution, or servicing activities, where permitted by fund documents and regulations. Key factors influencing earnings include AUM growth (fundraising and inflows), investment performance and realizations (which drive performance revenue), market conditions (which affect valuations and exit activity), and the scale and profitability of the retirement services platform (which depends on spread dynamics, asset performance, and liability management). Significant partnerships are not specified here; null.

Apollo Global Management Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong and improving profitability with 2025 revenue up ~10% YoY and healthy margins, plus sharply higher 2025 operating/free cash flow (~$7.25B). Offsetting factors are notable cyclicality (loss in 2022, revenue softness in 2024), historically uneven cash flows, and balance sheet complexity despite improved leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.57 in 2025).

Income Statement

Profitability is strong and improving: 2025 revenue rose to ~$30.3B (+10.3% YoY) and margins remain healthy (gross margin ~88%, net margin ~14.8%, EBIT margin ~31%). Earnings have stabilized at a high level (net income ~$4.5B in 2025 vs. ~$4.4B in 2024). The main weakness is volatility across the cycle—2022 posted a loss with negative operating profitability, and 2024 showed a slight revenue decline, highlighting sensitivity to market/valuation conditions.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks manageable in recent years with debt-to-equity improving from very elevated levels in 2020–2021 to ~0.57 in 2025, alongside higher equity ($23.3B in 2025). Returns on equity are attractive (about 19% in 2025), though down from the unusually high 2023 level. Key risk is balance sheet complexity/scale (assets are very large at ~$461B) and the historical leverage/volatility profile, which suggests results can swing materially in stressed markets.

Cash Flow

Cash generation strengthened meaningfully in 2025 with operating and free cash flow both at ~$7.25B (up sharply vs. 2024’s ~$3.25B), and free cash flow matching net income (free cash flow to net income = 1.0). However, cash flow has been uneven historically (notably negative operating cash flow in 2020), and the provided operating cash flow coverage ratio remains low across recent years, implying less cushion versus obligations depending on the definition used in the dataset.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	30.30B	26.11B	32.64B	10.97B	5.95B
Gross Profit	26.80B	24.97B	31.62B	10.04B	5.17B
EBITDA	10.49B	8.85B	6.65B	-3.50B	5.79B
Net Income	4.48B	4.43B	4.88B	-1.96B	1.84B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	460.95B	377.89B	313.49B	257.22B	30.50B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	248.06B	205.98B	170.24B	127.37B	1.38B
Total Debt	13.36B	10.59B	8.09B	7.19B	14.19B
Total Liabilities	418.43B	346.92B	288.24B	241.82B	18.54B
Stockholders Equity	23.34B	17.25B	14.04B	6.64B	3.79B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	7.45B	3.25B	6.32B	3.59B	999.31M
Operating Cash Flow	7.45B	3.25B	6.32B	3.79B	1.06B
Investing Cash Flow	-61.24B	-61.80B	-42.41B	-23.44B	-1.55B
Financing Cash Flow	57.27B	57.97B	42.64B	28.71B	109.00M

Apollo Global Management Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 103.45
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For APO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 103.45 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 111.33, below the 50-day MA of 126.92, and below the 200-day MA of 134.22, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -6.63 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 33.49 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 24.30 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for APO.

Apollo Global Management Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
APO	72 Outperform	$59.82B	19.64	21.40%	1.34%	-13.27%	-28.74%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
OWL	66 Neutral	$13.62B	128.08	3.43%	5.45%	27.24%	-59.82%
ARES	64 Neutral	$33.12B	66.62	12.01%	2.65%	50.70%	7.32%
CG	60 Neutral	$16.75B	26.29	14.18%	2.30%	-24.62%	437.16%
TPG	59 Neutral	$15.17B	31.80	16.10%	3.03%	25.02%	235.70%
KKR	57 Neutral	$76.76B	24.79	8.15%	0.56%	-33.80%	-24.81%

Apollo Global Management Corporate Events

Apollo Global Issues Clarifying Regulation FD Disclosure 8-K

Apollo Global Management furnished information in a Current Report on Form 8-K, clarifying that the material is not deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. The company also indicated that this information will not be subject to related liabilities or automatically incorporated into future securities filings unless specifically referenced.

The most recent analyst rating on (APO) stock is a Buy with a $146.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Apollo Global Management stock, see the APO Stock Forecast page.

Apollo Global Issues Preliminary Q4 2025 Investment Income Estimates

Apollo Global Management and its subsidiary Athene Holding Ltd. reported preliminary estimates for alternative net investment income for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2025, ahead of their scheduled February 9, 2026 earnings release. The company expects approximately $325 million in pre-tax alternative net investment income for the quarter, implying an annualized 10% return on alternative net investments, with Athene’s pooled investment vehicle also estimated to return 10% annualized and its other alternative investments, including retirement services platforms, estimated at a 7% annualized return; management emphasized these figures are unaudited, subject to normal closing procedures and potential material adjustments, and cautioned investors against relying on them as a substitute for full U.S. GAAP financial statements.

The most recent analyst rating on (APO) stock is a Buy with a $165.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Apollo Global Management stock, see the APO Stock Forecast page.