Aspen Pharmacare (APNHY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.96B
• Dividend Yield: 2.15%
• Average Volume (3M): 710.00
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.27
• Revenue Growth: -0.03%
• EPS Growth: -123.67%
• Country: US
• Employees: 8,867
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
• EPS (TTM): -0.42
• Shares Outstanding: 446,252,320
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 0
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 710
• PEG Ratio: 0.39
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.63
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.23
• P/FCF Ratio: 512.59
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 26.18
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.79
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.05
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 28.93
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 54 Neutral
• Price Target: $7.00 ▲(2.94% Upside)

The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance (loss-making results and sharply deteriorated free cash flow), partially offset by a constructive technical uptrend and moderately positive-but-mixed earnings call outlook. Valuation remains challenged due to negative earnings, with only a modest dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Commercial Pharma Momentum

Commercial Pharma is the group's core revenue engine, supplying most turnover with sustained double‑digit constant‑currency growth. That durable top‑line strength supports margin recovery, funds reinvestment and deleveraging, and reduces reliance on volatile manufacturing contracts over the medium term.

Successful New Product Launch (Mounjaro)

A market‑leading launch demonstrates strong commercial execution and access to high‑growth therapeutic categories (GLP‑1s). Durable product adoption creates a high‑margin franchise, diversifies revenue beyond commoditized generics, and increases the company's ability to grow sustainably in private markets.

Conservative Balance Sheet Base

Moderate leverage and a high equity ratio provide financial flexibility to absorb shocks, fund the Manufacturing turnaround and Mounjaro expansion, and pursue deleveraging without immediate refinancing stress—supporting medium‑term strategic execution and capital allocation.

Negative Factors

Severe Free Cash Flow Deterioration

A near‑complete collapse in free cash flow and very weak cash conversion undermine the company's ability to fund capex, reduce net debt, or support dividends from operations. This structural cash weakness constrains investment in manufacturing fixes and new product rollouts over the medium term.

Loss of Material Contract

Losing a large contract that removed roughly ZAR 2bn of EBITDA materially reduces manufacturing revenue and utilization. Reduced scale raises unit costs and prolongs the path to profitable manufacturing EBITDA, making structural margin recovery harder absent new long‑term contracts.

Higher Taxes and Large Impairments

Retrospective tax changes and sizable ZAR 4.1bn impairments permanently reduce reported equity and future earnings capacity. Higher effective tax burdens and write‑downs weaken cash available for reinvestment, raise breakeven thresholds and limit shareholder returns over the medium term.

Aspen Pharmacare Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and supplies specialty and branded pharmaceutical products worldwide. It operates in Commercial Pharmaceuticals and Manufacturing segments. The company provides general anesthetics, muscle relaxants, and topical agents under the Anaesthetics brand; and a range of injectable anticoagulants with a focus on low molecular weight heparins, Xa inhibitors, and heparin derivatives under the Thrombosis brand. It also offers branded consumer, prescription, and over-the-counter products under the regional brands, such as Circadin, Foxair, Maltofer, Mybulen, and Zyloric for various types of anesthetic comprises sleeping aid, respiratory, iron supplement, analgesic, and uric acid production inhibitor. In addition, the company manufactures and sells active pharmaceutical ingredients and finished dose form products to third-party customers. The company was founded in 1850 and is headquartered in Durban, South Africa.

How the Company Makes Money

Aspen Pharmacare generates revenue primarily through the sale of pharmaceutical products across various therapeutic categories. Its revenue model is built on three main streams: prescription medicines, consumer healthcare products, and active pharmaceutical ingredients. The company benefits from a robust distribution network that allows it to reach markets across Africa, Europe, and Asia-Pacific. Strategic partnerships and collaborations with other pharmaceutical companies enhance its product offerings and market presence. Additionally, Aspen's focus on generic pharmaceuticals allows it to compete effectively in price-sensitive markets, further contributing to its earnings. Factors such as regulatory approvals, successful product launches, and the expansion of its manufacturing capabilities also play significant roles in driving revenue growth.

Aspen Pharmacare Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Weak profitability and cash generation drive the score: revenue declined 4.75%, net margin is -2.50%, and free cash flow growth fell 96.22% with very low cash flow support versus earnings. The balance sheet is relatively steadier with moderate leverage (debt-to-equity 0.43) and a strong equity ratio (62.45%), but negative ROE (-1.28%) underscores underperformance.

Income Statement

Aspen Pharmacare's income statement reveals a challenging year with a revenue decline of 4.75% and a negative net profit margin of -2.50% in the latest period. The gross profit margin remains relatively stable at 44.11%, indicating efficient cost management. However, the significant drop in EBIT and EBITDA margins from previous years highlights operational challenges. The company needs to address its declining revenue and profitability to improve its financial health.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.43, suggesting a balanced approach to leveraging. However, the negative return on equity of -1.28% indicates that the company is not generating sufficient returns on its equity investments. The equity ratio of 62.45% reflects a strong equity base, providing some stability amidst financial challenges.

Cash Flow

Aspen Pharmacare's cash flow statement indicates a severe decline in free cash flow growth by 96.22%, raising concerns about cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 0.29 suggests that cash flow is not adequately supporting net income, while the free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.02 is alarmingly low. The company needs to improve its cash flow management to ensure liquidity and operational sustainability.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	43.36B	43.36B	44.71B	40.71B	38.61B	37.77B
Gross Profit	19.13B	19.13B	19.42B	18.41B	18.31B	17.79B
EBITDA	2.68B	2.16B	9.90B	10.19B	9.93B	8.67B
Net Income	-1.08B	-1.08B	4.40B	5.23B	6.49B	4.81B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	135.89B	135.89B	139.16B	134.28B	111.38B	109.68B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	6.41B	6.41B	12.34B	10.91B	6.18B	8.55B
Total Debt	36.12B	36.12B	36.46B	29.28B	22.25B	24.87B
Total Liabilities	51.00B	51.00B	54.29B	48.05B	40.43B	44.06B
Stockholders Equity	84.89B	84.89B	84.86B	86.24B	70.94B	65.63B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	2.58B	104.00M	690.00M	2.34B	2.68B	3.39B
Operating Cash Flow	5.16B	5.16B	6.22B	5.52B	5.37B	6.83B
Investing Cash Flow	-5.22B	-5.22B	-9.47B	-3.42B	-2.16B	9.76B
Financing Cash Flow	-162.00M	-162.00M	3.62B	-420.00M	-4.68B	-15.65B

Aspen Pharmacare Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 6.80
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For APNHY, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 6.8 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.07, above the 50-day MA of 6.23, and above the 200-day MA of 6.25, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.17 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.55 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 0.68 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for APNHY.

Aspen Pharmacare Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
AMRX	60 Neutral	$4.30B	963.38	―	―	9.50%	―
SUPN	55 Neutral	$2.76B	-141.31	-1.86%	―	4.54%	-130.59%
APNHY	54 Neutral	$2.96B	-53.46	-1.18%	2.15%	-0.03%	-123.67%
HCM	52 Neutral	$2.61B	5.59	47.54%	―	-1.35%	―
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
PRGO	49 Neutral	$1.96B	-37.72	-0.65%	8.48%	-2.55%	66.00%
ALVO	42 Neutral	$1.61B	23.32	―	―	55.38%	―