Aspen Pharmacare (APNHY) AI Stock Analysis

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Aspen Pharmacare

(OTC:APNHY)

Rating:46Neutral

Price Target:

$6.00

▲(1.52% Upside)

Aspen Pharmacare's overall stock score reflects significant financial and operational challenges, with declining revenue, profitability, and cash flow being the most impactful factors. The technical analysis indicates a bearish trend, and the valuation metrics are concerning due to the negative P/E ratio. While there is strong growth in the Commercial Pharma segment, the loss of a key contract and adverse currency impacts weigh heavily on the company's outlook.

Aspen Pharmacare (APNHY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$2.57B

Dividend Yield3.36%

Average Volume (3M)63.00

Price to Earnings (P/E)10.6

Beta (1Y)0.40

Revenue Growth-0.03%

EPS Growth-123.28%

CountryUS

Employees8,867

SectorHealthcare

Sector Strength51

IndustryDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)-0.42

Shares Outstanding446,252,320

10 Day Avg. Volume87

30 Day Avg. Volume63

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)N/A

P/FCF RatioN/A

Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.10

Enterprise Value/Revenue0.12

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.26

Enterprise Value/Ebitda0.50

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$6.00

Price Target Upside1.52% Upside

Rating ConsensusHold

Number of Analyst Covering0

Aspen Pharmacare Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAspen Pharmacare Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and supplies specialty and branded pharmaceutical products worldwide. It operates in Commercial Pharmaceuticals and Manufacturing segments. The company provides general anesthetics, muscle relaxants, and topical agents under the Anaesthetics brand; and a range of injectable anticoagulants with a focus on low molecular weight heparins, Xa inhibitors, and heparin derivatives under the Thrombosis brand. It also offers branded consumer, prescription, and over-the-counter products under the regional brands, such as Circadin, Foxair, Maltofer, Mybulen, and Zyloric for various types of anesthetic comprises sleeping aid, respiratory, iron supplement, analgesic, and uric acid production inhibitor. In addition, the company manufactures and sells active pharmaceutical ingredients and finished dose form products to third-party customers. The company was founded in 1850 and is headquartered in Durban, South Africa.

How the Company Makes MoneyAspen Pharmacare generates revenue through the manufacture and sale of a wide range of pharmaceutical products. The company's primary revenue streams include its commercial pharmaceuticals, which encompass branded products and generics, and its manufacturing business that provides APIs and pharmaceutical finished dose forms to third parties. Aspen's earnings are bolstered by strategic partnerships and collaborations with other pharmaceutical companies, enabling it to expand its global reach and enhance its product offerings. Additionally, the company benefits from its cost-effective manufacturing capabilities and a strong presence in both emerging and established markets, which contribute significantly to its revenue growth.

Aspen Pharmacare Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Sep 03, 2025

(Q4-2025)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:Mar 05, 2026

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call highlighted strong growth in the Commercial Pharma segment and successful product launches, particularly in emerging markets. However, the loss of a key contract, adverse currency impacts, increased tax burdens, and challenges in the Manufacturing segment notably affected the overall financial performance.

Q4-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong Commercial Pharma Growth

The Commercial Pharma segment, which contributes 70-80% of turnover, showed strong momentum with double-digit constant exchange rate revenue and EBITDA growth.

Successful Launch of Mounjaro

The launch of Mounjaro in South Africa was the most successful in the private market's history, quickly reaching significant sales milestones and expanding the market by 130%.

Positive ESG Achievements

Aspen achieved an 8% increase in access to critical medicines, improved gender diversity in leadership to 32%, and a 24% reduction in carbon emissions.

Strong Cash Flow Performance

Aspen achieved an operating cash conversion rate of 147%, significantly higher than the previous years.

Latin America Portfolio Growth

The acquired Pfizer portfolio in Latin America grew by 34% since its acquisition in November 2023.

Negative Updates

Loss of Material Contract

An unexpected loss of a material contract led to a significant EBITDA reduction, impacting financial results.

Adverse Currency Impacts

The strong rand negatively impacted reported financial performance, with a ZAR 800 million EBITDA impact and a ZAR 600 million earnings impact.

Increased Tax and Impairments

New global tax regimes and retrospective implementation increased tax rates and led to ZAR 4.1 billion in intangible asset impairments.

Elevated Expenses and Interest Costs

Expenses were elevated due to the integration of the Sandoz China business, and interest costs increased by 21% due to foreign exchange volatility.

Manufacturing Segment Decline

The Manufacturing segment saw a decline in revenue and EBITDA due to the loss of the mRNA contract.

Company Guidance

During the call, Aspen's executives provided comprehensive guidance and insights into the company's financial performance and strategic direction. They highlighted a strong momentum in Commercial Pharma, contributing to 70-80% of turnover, with double-digit revenue and EBITDA growth at constant exchange rates across all segments, including Prescription Medicines, OTC Medicines, and Injectables. However, they faced challenges such as the unanticipated loss of a material contract, impacting EBITDA by ZAR 2 billion, and retrospective global tax regimes affecting tax rates and impairments. The rand's strength also diluted growth. Looking ahead, Aspen plans to sustain growth in Commercial Pharma, restructure its Finished Dosage Form facility, and tap into new opportunities like GLP-1s. They aim for mid-single-digit growth in Commercial Pharma and a return to positive EBITDA for their Manufacturing segment by FY27, with an emphasis on free cash flow generation. The company is also focusing on reducing net debt and capital expenditures while capitalizing on strategic partnerships and emerging market strengths.

Aspen Pharmacare Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Aspen Pharmacare exhibits strong revenue growth and operational efficiency, with a solid gross profit margin. However, declining net profit margins and ROE, along with a significant drop in free cash flow, raise concerns. The company maintains a moderate leverage and strong equity position, providing financial stability, but needs to address profitability and cash flow issues.

Income Statement

Positive

Aspen Pharmacare has shown a consistent increase in revenue over the years, with a revenue growth rate of 9.82% from 2023 to 2024. The gross profit margin stands at 43.44%, indicating strong profitability. However, the net profit margin has decreased to 9.85% in 2024, reflecting a decline in net income. The EBIT margin is 15.65%, and the EBITDA margin is 22.16%, both of which suggest healthy operational efficiency despite some decline in EBIT.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The company's debt-to-equity ratio is 0.43, indicating a moderate level of leverage. The return on equity (ROE) has decreased to 5.19%, which is a concern for investor returns. The equity ratio is 60.98%, showing a strong equity base relative to total assets, which enhances financial stability.

Cash Flow

Positive

Aspen Pharmacare's free cash flow has decreased significantly, with a negative growth rate of -70.50% from 2023 to 2024. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.41, indicating good cash generation relative to net income. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio has dropped to 0.16, highlighting challenges in maintaining free cash flow levels.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	45.52B	43.36B	44.71B	40.71B	38.61B	37.77B
Gross Profit	20.56B	19.13B	19.42B	18.41B	18.31B	17.79B
EBITDA	10.79B	2.16B	9.90B	10.19B	9.93B	8.67B
Net Income	4.48B	-1.08B	4.40B	5.23B	6.49B	4.81B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	136.60B	135.89B	139.16B	134.28B	111.38B	109.68B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	6.80B	6.41B	12.34B	10.91B	6.18B	8.55B
Total Debt	35.47B	36.12B	36.46B	29.28B	22.25B	24.87B
Total Liabilities	51.51B	51.00B	54.29B	48.05B	40.43B	44.06B
Stockholders Equity	85.09B	84.89B	84.86B	86.24B	70.94B	65.63B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	2.75B	104.00M	690.00M	2.34B	2.68B	3.39B
Operating Cash Flow	5.57B	5.16B	6.22B	5.52B	5.37B	6.83B
Investing Cash Flow	-6.09B	-5.22B	-9.47B	-3.42B	-2.16B	9.76B
Financing Cash Flow	676.00M	-162.00M	3.62B	-420.00M	-4.68B	-15.65B

Aspen Pharmacare Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price5.91

Price Trends

50DMA

6.40

Negative

100DMA

6.65

Negative

200DMA

7.93

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.18

Positive

RSI

42.10

Neutral

STOCH

29.87

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For APNHY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 5.91 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.13, below the 50-day MA of 6.40, and below the 200-day MA of 7.93, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.18 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.10 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 29.87 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for APNHY.

Aspen Pharmacare Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (51)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
RDY	74 Outperform	$11.87B	17.74	17.48%	0.64%	13.13%	-0.47%
AMRX	66 Neutral	$3.00B	1,503.13	106.97%	―	9.81%	―
VTRS	59 Neutral	$12.04B	―	-19.77%	4.57%	-7.47%	-438.39%
TEVA	58 Neutral	$21.51B	―	-2.31%	―	2.43%	64.37%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.92B	-0.43	-41.67%	2.21%	22.29%	-1.85%
PRGO	51 Neutral	$3.20B	―	-1.32%	5.06%	-2.32%	35.46%
APNHY	46 Neutral	$2.57B	10.58	-1.18%	3.36%	-0.03%	-123.28%

* Healthcare Sector Average

Performance Comparison

APNHY

Aspen Pharmacare

5.91

-4.76

-44.61%

RDY

Dr Reddy's Laboratories

14.34

-1.50

-9.47%

VTRS

Viatris

10.50

-0.12

-1.13%

PRGO

Perrigo Company

22.65

-2.85

-11.18%

TEVA

Teva Pharmaceutical

18.95

1.15

6.46%

AMRX

Amneal Pharmaceuticals

9.62

1.16

13.71%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Sep 06, 2025