Aspen Pharmacare (APNHY)
OTHER OTC:APNHY
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Aspen Pharmacare
(OTC:APNHY)
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Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
$8.00
▲(17.65% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/04/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance (declining revenue, negative profitability, and severely weaker free cash flow), partially offset by a strong technical uptrend. The earnings call adds moderate support due to improving cash metrics and the APAC divestment/deleveraging plan, while valuation remains constrained by a negative P/E and only modest dividend yield.
Positive Factors
APAC divestment to materially reduce debt
A confirmed APAC divestment with expected net proceeds >ZAR25bn is a structural balance‑sheet catalyst. Eliminating most net debt and realizing an H2 profit will materially lower leverage, cut interest costs, and restore financial flexibility to fund capex, M&A or shareholder returns over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Manufacturing/steriles collapse from lost contract
A concentrated revenue loss and near‑total earnings collapse in Manufacturing reveals structural customer concentration and execution vulnerability. Restoring contracts and sterile profitability is multi‑period work; until rebuilt, earnings and gross margins remain exposed to lost high‑contribution contracts.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
APAC divestment to materially reduce debt
A confirmed APAC divestment with expected net proceeds >ZAR25bn is a structural balance‑sheet catalyst. Eliminating most net debt and realizing an H2 profit will materially lower leverage, cut interest costs, and restore financial flexibility to fund capex, M&A or shareholder returns over the medium term.
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Aspen Pharmacare (APNHY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.54B
Dividend Yield2.15%
Average Volume (3M)710.00
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.6
Beta (1Y)0.28
Revenue Growth-0.03%
EPS Growth-123.67%
CountryUS
Employees8,867
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.19
Shares Outstanding446,252,320
10 Day Avg. Volume0
30 Day Avg. Volume710
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.39
Price to Book (P/B)0.63
Price to Sales (P/S)1.23
P/FCF Ratio512.59
Enterprise Value/Market Cap24.68
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.32
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.53
Enterprise Value/Ebitda54.12
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)0.67
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.49B
Aspen Pharmacare Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and supplies specialty and branded pharmaceutical products worldwide. It operates in Commercial Pharmaceuticals and Manufacturing segments. The company provides genera...
How the Company Makes Money
Aspen Pharmacare makes money primarily by selling pharmaceutical products that it manufactures and/or markets to customers such as wholesalers, distributors, pharmacies, hospitals, and public-sector procurement agencies. Revenue is generated acros...
Aspen Pharmacare Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 03, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Sep 02, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call conveys a balanced picture: strong operational cash generation, clear commercial pharma momentum (notably GLP‑1 traction), and a material APAC divestment that should materially strengthen the balance sheet and unlock shareholder value. Offsetting these positives are significant near‑term manufacturing and sterile segment setbacks (large EBITDA and revenue hits from lost contracts), a meaningful short‑term decline in group earnings, and ongoing macro/regulatory and currency risk. Management presented a defined recovery plan (cost reshaping, contract commercialization, insulin ramp, French site wins and sterile restructuring) and targets FY27 restoration of prior EBITDA levels, but execution is required to convert the improvements signaled into sustainable results.Positive Updates
Strong free cash flow generation
Cash from operations ZAR 3.6bn (up from ZAR 1.8bn prior half); CapEx reduced to ZAR 1.6bn (from ZAR 2.6bn), producing ~ZAR 2bn of free cash flow for the half. Cash generation aided by lower working capital, lower cash finance costs and tax timing optimization.
Negative Updates
Manufacturing segment collapse driven by mRNA contract loss
Manufacturing revenue down ~26% CER and EBITDA down ~85% (from ~ZAR 1.3bn to ~ZAR 0.2bn). Loss of the mRNA contract (~ZAR 1.5bn benefit prior year) plus settlement (~ZAR 500m) produced ~ZAR 1bn adverse swing to H1 EBITDA.
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Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong free cash flow generation
Cash from operations ZAR 3.6bn (up from ZAR 1.8bn prior half); CapEx reduced to ZAR 1.6bn (from ZAR 2.6bn), producing ~ZAR 2bn of free cash flow for the half. Cash generation aided by lower working capital, lower cash finance costs and tax timing optimization.
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Company Guidance
Guidance focused on a stronger H2 and FY26 driven by Commercial Pharma and cash generation: Commercial Pharma is guided to mid‑single‑digit revenue growth and double‑digit constant‑currency EBITDA growth (H1 Commercial Pharma: +4% revenue CER, +11% EBITDA CER, EBITDA margin 29.2%); Manufacturing is guided to be broadly in line with prior year as the group recoups the ~ZAR1.0bn lost contract contribution (H1 Manufacturing: revenue -26% CER, EBITDA down ~85% to ~ZAR0.2bn) and Steriles are targeted to reach EBITDA breakeven or better by FY27. Group targets include at least double‑digit normalized HEPS growth and a much stronger H2 (H1 group revenue ~ZAR21bn, normalized EBITDA ~ZAR5.05bn, continuing‑ops H1 EBITDA ~ZAR3.8bn; normalized HEPS H1 ZAR5.75, -21%); cash metrics are improving (cash from operations H1 ZAR3.6bn, CapEx H1 ZAR1.6bn, free cash flow ≈ZAR2bn for the half), net debt reduced to ZAR28.6bn (leverage ~3.4x) and, subject to the APAC divestment (AUD237m gross ≈ ZAR26.5–27bn; assets held for sale ~ZAR21.8bn; expected net proceeds >ZAR25bn), the group expects most debt to be eliminated, an H2 profit on sale of c.ZAR1.8–2.0bn and a net after‑tax impact (net of interest savings) of ~ZAR0.85bn, with a goal to restore group EBITDA to about ZAR9.6bn by FY27.Aspen Pharmacare Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
Cash Flow
40
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 37.67B | 43.36B | 44.71B | 40.71B | 38.61B | 37.77B |
| Gross Profit | 15.77B | 19.13B | 19.42B | 18.41B | 18.31B | 17.79B |
| EBITDA | 1.61B | 2.16B | 9.90B | 10.19B | 9.93B | 8.67B |
| Net Income | -2.07B | -1.08B | 4.40B | 5.23B | 6.49B | 4.81B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 127.92B | 135.89B | 139.16B | 134.28B | 111.38B | 109.68B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 5.61B | 6.41B | 12.34B | 10.91B | 6.18B | 8.55B |
| Total Debt | 32.91B | 36.12B | 36.46B | 29.28B | 22.25B | 24.87B |
| Total Liabilities | 46.91B | 51.00B | 54.29B | 48.05B | 40.43B | 44.06B |
| Stockholders Equity | 81.01B | 84.89B | 84.86B | 86.24B | 70.94B | 65.63B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 4.31B | 104.00M | 690.00M | 2.34B | 2.68B | 3.39B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 6.76B | 5.16B | 6.22B | 5.52B | 5.37B | 6.83B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.01B | -5.22B | -9.47B | -3.42B | -2.16B | 9.76B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.43B | -162.00M | 3.62B | -420.00M | -4.68B | -15.65B |
Aspen Pharmacare Technical Analysis
Positive
6.80
Price Trends
7.62
Positive
6.81
Positive
6.45
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.06
Positive
47.37
Neutral
22.13
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For APNHY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 6.8 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.97, below the 50-day MA of 7.62, and above the 200-day MA of 6.45, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.37 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 22.13 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for APNHY.
Aspen Pharmacare Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
60 Neutral | $2.96B | -72.78 | -3.67% | ― | 4.54% | -130.59% | |
58 Neutral | $3.54B | 8.63 | -2.41% | 2.15% | -0.03% | -123.67% | |
54 Neutral | $4.00B | 54.80 | -67.91% | ― | 9.50% | ― | |
53 Neutral | $2.66B | 4.99 | 41.91% | ― | -1.35% | ― | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
48 Neutral | $1.48B | ― | -35.16% | 8.48% | -2.55% | 66.00% | |
46 Neutral | $1.20B | 51.30 | -11.92% | ― | 55.38% | ― |
* Healthcare Sector Average
APNHY
Aspen Pharmacare
8.05
-0.67
-7.68%
PRGO
Perrigo Company
11.00
-15.10
-57.85%
SUPN
Supernus Pharmaceuticals
51.44
18.62
56.73%
HCM
HUTCHMED
15.14
-0.76
-4.78%
AMRX
Amneal Pharmaceuticals
12.71
4.54
55.57%
ALVO
Alvotech
3.62
-5.57
-60.61%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.