Autoliv (ALV) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $7.60B
• Dividend Yield: 2.6%
• Average Volume (3M): 716.62K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 12.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.95
• Revenue Growth: 0.84%
• EPS Growth: 26.17%
• Country: US
• Employees: 59,310
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Auto - Parts
• EPS (TTM): 3.19
• Shares Outstanding: 74,706,510
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 793,783
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 716,617
• PEG Ratio: 0.64
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.54
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.84
• P/FCF Ratio: 12.72
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.26
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.88
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.61
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 6.38
• 1Y Price Target: $135.05
• Price Target Upside: 32.74% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 12
• EPS Forecast (FY): 10.59
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $11.03B

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: $118.00 ▲(15.98% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 03/12/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 03/12/26

The score is driven primarily by solid underlying financial performance (improving margins and stronger cash generation) and supportive valuation (modest P/E and ~3% yield). These are tempered by very weak technical conditions (price below key moving averages and bearish momentum) and a cautious near-term earnings setup (management expects a weak Q1 with margin pressure despite full-year margin and cash-flow targets).

Positive Factors

Multi-year Revenue Growth

Sustained revenue growth from $7.45B in 2020 to $10.82B in 2025 indicates durable demand, successful program awards and market penetration. This scale improves fixed-cost absorption and engineering leverage, supporting structural margin improvement and long-term program profitability.

Strong Cash Generation & Conversion

Material improvement in operating cash flow and record free cash flow (with 100% cash conversion noted) provides durable financial flexibility. Reliable cash supports capex for tech ramps, R&D, dividends and buybacks, and enables deleveraging or selective investments across cycles.

Product Wins & Structural Market Position

Technology wins (foldable steering wheel, advanced safety/electronics orders) and strategic OEM awards bolster differentiated content per vehicle. These structural product advantages position the company to capture share in electrification and autonomy supply chains, raising long-term revenue potential.

Negative Factors

Moderate Leverage

Debt close to equity (debt-to-equity ~0.95) leaves limited balance-sheet cushion. In a prolonged automotive downturn or program delay, higher leverage constrains flexibility to fund ramps, absorb working-capital swings, pursue M&A or sustain shareholder returns without raising external financing.

OEM Sourcing Volatility & Shorter Program Lives

Shortened program lifecycles and OEM sourcing reassessments reduce visibility on long-term volumes and content, increasing order volatility. This structurally raises forecasting risk, complicates capacity planning and weakens the durability of platform-driven revenue and margin assumptions.

Raw Material & Tariff Exposure

A ~$30M raw-material headwind and unrecovered tariff impacts highlight structural margin sensitivity. With gross margins relatively tight (~19% in 2025), persistent commodity or trade-cost pressure can compress profitability if pass-through to OEMs is limited or engineering income remains cyclical.

Autoliv Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Autoliv, Inc., through its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, and supplies passive safety systems to the automotive industry in Europe, the Americas, China, Japan, and rest of Asia. It offers passive safety systems, including modules and components for frontal-impact airbag protection systems, side-impact airbag protection systems, seatbelts, steering wheels, inflator technologies, and battery cut-off switches, as well as anti-whiplash systems and pedestrian protection systems, and connected safety services and solutions for riders of powered two wheelers. The company primarily serves car manufacturers. Autoliv, Inc. was founded in 1953 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.

How the Company Makes Money

Autoliv primarily makes money by selling automotive safety systems and components directly to vehicle OEMs as part of new vehicle production (original equipment). Revenue is largely generated from (1) airbag systems (including airbags and inflators) and (2) seatbelt systems (including retractors, buckles, pretensioners, and load limiters), which are typically engineered to a customer’s vehicle platform and produced in high volumes over the model life cycle. Autoliv’s earnings are influenced by contract-driven platform awards and sourcing decisions by OEMs, with pricing and volumes tied to vehicle production rates, model mix, and the content of safety features per vehicle. The company also generates revenue from safety electronics and related modules used to deploy/coordinate passive safety features, as well as from steering wheels and other complementary components when bundled with broader safety-system supply. Key factors contributing to revenue and profitability include securing long-term supply nominations from major OEMs, launching and ramping new vehicle programs, maintaining manufacturing scale and quality performance, managing commodity and logistics costs, and growing safety content per vehicle as regulations and consumer safety expectations increase. Significant partnerships, when present, are typically structured as OEM supply relationships and engineering collaboration on specific vehicle platforms; specific partnership terms and contributions are null.

Autoliv Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong multi-year recovery: revenue grew from $7.45B (2020) to $10.82B (2025) with materially higher profitability (net margin ~6.8% and EBIT margin ~10.1% in 2025). Cash generation improved with 2025 operating cash flow of $1.16B and free cash flow of $715M, though free cash flow has shown volatility. Balance sheet is reasonable but not conservative (debt-to-equity ~0.95) which limits flexibility if conditions soften.

Income Statement

Revenue has grown from $7.45B (2020) to $10.82B (2025), with growth re-accelerating in 2025 after a flat 2024. Profitability has improved meaningfully versus earlier years: net margin expanded from ~2.5% (2020) to ~6.8% (2025), and operating profitability also stepped up (EBIT margin ~10.1% in 2025 vs ~4.9% in 2020). Gross margin has trended higher since 2022, but remains in a relatively tight band (~19% in 2025), leaving results somewhat exposed if costs rise or pricing weakens.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is moderate: debt is $2.44B against $2.57B of equity in 2025 (debt-to-equity ~0.95), higher than 2022–2023 but improved versus 2020 (above 1.0). Equity has been relatively stable while assets rose to $8.64B in 2025, suggesting balance sheet expansion without outsized dilution. Returns on equity are strong (~28–29% in 2024–2025), but the upward drift in leverage in the most recent year and a debt load close to equity reduce financial flexibility if industry conditions soften.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is solid and improving: operating cash flow increased from $713M (2022) to $1.16B (2025), while free cash flow rose to $715M in 2025 with strong growth versus 2024. Free cash flow covers a meaningful portion of earnings (about 62% of net income in 2025, up from ~45% in 2024), indicating improving earnings quality. However, free cash flow has been volatile over the period (notably weak in 2022), which is a risk for consistency in capital returns or deleveraging plans.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	10.81B	10.39B	10.47B	8.84B	8.23B
Gross Profit	2.07B	1.93B	1.82B	1.40B	1.51B
EBITDA	1.50B	1.37B	1.08B	1.03B	1.07B
Net Income	735.00M	646.00M	488.00M	423.00M	435.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	8.64B	7.80B	8.33B	7.72B	7.54B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	604.00M	330.00M	498.00M	594.00M	969.00M
Total Debt	2.44B	2.07B	2.04B	1.92B	2.14B
Total Liabilities	6.06B	5.52B	5.76B	5.09B	4.89B
Stockholders Equity	2.57B	2.28B	2.56B	2.61B	2.63B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	715.00M	480.00M	409.00M	128.00M	296.00M
Operating Cash Flow	1.16B	1.06B	982.00M	713.00M	754.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-423.00M	-563.00M	-569.00M	-485.00M	-454.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-369.00M	-680.00M	-490.00M	-531.00M	-469.00M

Autoliv Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 101.74
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ALV, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 101.74 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 111.39, below the 50-day MA of 119.24, and below the 200-day MA of 117.04, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -5.16 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 21.02 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.96 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ALV.

Autoliv Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
GNTX	78 Outperform	$4.50B	13.27	15.56%	2.05%	2.99%	-9.80%
LEA	72 Outperform	$5.86B	14.06	8.79%	2.63%	-1.90%	-13.86%
VC	72 Outperform	$2.28B	12.87	13.90%	0.57%	-4.03%	-39.51%
ALV	69 Neutral	$7.60B	12.37	29.57%	2.60%	0.84%	26.17%
BWA	62 Neutral	$10.86B	35.20	4.80%	1.24%	0.08%	-83.69%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
APTV	54 Neutral	$14.72B	101.80	1.78%	―	2.16%	-85.91%

Autoliv Corporate Events

Autoliv Names Monika Grama as New Chief Financial Officer

On March 6, 2026, Autoliv announced that its board appointed long‑time executive Monika Grama as Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President, Finance, effective April 1, 2026, succeeding Fredrik Westin, who will leave the company on March 31, 2026. Grama, currently Vice President Finance for the EMEA division and formerly Managing Director and Finance Manager of Autoliv Romania, will receive a compensation package aligned with other senior executives, including incentive pay, long‑term incentives, relocation support to Stockholm and severance protections tied to non‑competition and other covenants.

Also on March 6, 2026, Autoliv said it renewed its Euro Medium Term Note Programme for one year, preserving the flexibility to issue up to the equivalent of EUR 3 billion in guaranteed notes in various currencies outside the U.S. under Regulation S. The renewal maintains a key financing platform for the automotive safety supplier, supporting its ongoing capital needs and balance‑sheet management without constituting an offer of securities to U.S. investors.

The most recent analyst rating on (ALV) stock is a Hold with a $125.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Autoliv stock, see the ALV Stock Forecast page.

Autoliv Posts Record 2025 Sales, Signals Moderation Ahead

On January 30, 2026, Autoliv reported record quarterly and full-year sales for the fourth quarter and full year 2025, with Q4 net sales rising 7.7% to $2.82 billion and organic growth of 4.2%, outpacing a 1.3% increase in global light vehicle production, especially through nearly 40% sales growth to Chinese OEMs and strong demand in India. Despite a 9.6% decline in Q4 operating income to $319 million and a slightly lower operating margin, profitability remained robust, supported by cost reductions and tariff cost recovery, driving record operating cash flow of $544 million for the quarter and $1.16 billion for the year, reduced leverage to 1.1x, increased dividends, and share repurchases, while management signaled a more moderate 2026 outlook with flat organic sales but solid margins, underscoring Autoliv’s strengthened financial position, improved Asian footprint, and continued focus on shareholder returns in a low-growth environment.

The most recent analyst rating on (ALV) stock is a Buy with a $145.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Autoliv stock, see the ALV Stock Forecast page.