Aldeyra Therapeutics (ALDX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $338.23M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 738.20K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 2.31
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: 4.23%
• Country: US
• Employees: 9
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): N/A
• Shares Outstanding: 60,182,780
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 717,523
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 738,203
• PEG Ratio: 0.23
• Price to Book (P/B): <0.01
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: >-0.01
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: -161.17K
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 427.88M
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 1.68M
• 1Y Price Target: $9.50
• Price Target Upside: 73.99% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.11
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $63.60M

• Rating: 49 Neutral
• Price Target: $5.50 ▲(0.73% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/28/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/28/26

The score is primarily constrained by weak financial performance (no revenue, ongoing losses, and elevated recent cash burn that increases financing/dilution risk). Technicals are a relative positive with price above key moving averages and supportive momentum, but valuation is limited by negative earnings, and the recent FDA PDUFA extension introduces additional near-term regulatory/timing risk.

Positive Factors

Pipeline diversification (RASP expansion)

Expanding the RASP platform into CNS inflammatory indications broadens Aldeyra's addressable market beyond ophthalmology. This structural diversification reduces single‑asset concentration risk, creates multiple multi-year development pathways and increases long-term partnership and licensing optionality.

Clinical proof-of-concept outside ophthalmology

Objective, statistically significant liver function improvements for ADX-629 provide platform-level mechanistic validation for RASP modulation. Durable clinical signals across indications strengthen scientific credibility, improve probability of future approvals or collaborations, and underwrite multi-indication development strategies.

Relatively moderate leverage

Debt levels appear modest for a pre-revenue biotech, which lowers insolvency and interest burden risk. Structurally lower leverage supports longer operational runway versus highly levered peers, providing more flexibility to fund clinical programs and negotiate partnerships without imminent solvency pressure.

Negative Factors

No revenue; persistent net losses

Aldeyra's pre-revenue status and sustained net losses indicate limited internal cash generation and a long pathway to profitability. Structurally negative earnings force continued dependence on external financing, raising dilution risk and constraining reinvestment capacity over the medium term.

Weak cash generation; recent spike in burn

Consistent negative operating and free cash flow, plus a recent large step-up in outflows, create durable funding pressure. Over 2–6 months this increases probability of additional financing, which can dilute shareholders and potentially delay or constrain clinical and commercial execution.

Regulatory setback and trial outcome uncertainty

A PDUFA extension plus a filed trial that missed its primary symptom endpoint represent structural regulatory and clinical risk. Such outcomes can necessitate additional data, delay commercialization, reduce labeling scope, and impair peak revenue potential, affecting long-term strategic planning and partner interest.

Aldeyra Therapeutics Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Aldeyra Therapeutics, Inc., a biotechnology company, develops and commercializes medicines for immune-mediated ocular and systemic diseases. The company's lead product candidate is reproxalap, a reactive aldehyde species (RASP)modulator, which is in Phase III clinical trial for the treatment of dry eye diseases and allergic conjunctivitis. It also develops ADX-629, a first-in-class orally administered RASP modulator that is Phase II clinical trial for psoriasis, asthma, and COVID-19; and ADX-2191, a dihydrofolate reductase inhibitor which is in phase 3 for the prevention of proliferative vitreoretinopathy, and phase II clinical trial for the treatment of retinitis pigmentosa, as well as for treating primary vitreoretinal lymphoma. The company has a license agreement with Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. for developing ADX-1612, which inhibits the protein chaperome for the treatment of inflammatory diseases. The company was formerly known as Aldexa Therapeutics, Inc. and changed its name to Aldeyra Therapeutics, Inc. in March 2014. Aldeyra Therapeutics, Inc. was incorporated in 2004 and is based in Lexington, Massachusetts.

How the Company Makes Money

Aldeyra Therapeutics primarily makes money through the development and commercialization of its pharmaceutical products. Its revenue model is based on the successful progression of its drug candidates through clinical trials, regulatory approval, and eventual sales in the healthcare market. The company may also enter into licensing agreements and partnerships with larger pharmaceutical companies to enhance development and distribution capabilities, which can provide upfront payments, milestone payments, and royalties. Additionally, Aldeyra might receive funding through grants, collaborations, or equity investments to support its ongoing research and development activities.

Aldeyra Therapeutics Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials reflect a pre-revenue biotech profile: no revenue, persistent net losses, and consistently negative operating/free cash flow. While leverage is generally low-to-moderate, the most recent period shows a sharp deterioration in operating results and a large step-up in cash outflows, increasing near-term funding and dilution risk.

Income Statement

The company reports no revenue across the annual periods provided, which keeps profitability structurally negative. Losses have been persistent (net income negative each year), and while 2023–2024 losses narrowed versus 2022, the most recent annual period shows a sharp deterioration in operating results. Overall, the income profile reflects an early-stage biotech model with heavy R&D spending and limited near-term earnings visibility.

Balance Sheet

Leverage appears moderate with debt-to-equity generally low-to-moderate (roughly 0.08–0.35 across the periods), which is a relative strength for a pre-revenue biotech. However, returns on equity are deeply negative each year, indicating ongoing equity value erosion from sustained losses. The latest annual period also shows higher leverage than prior years, increasing financial risk if losses persist.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is weak with operating and free cash flow consistently negative, indicating ongoing cash burn to fund operations. Cash burn improved in 2023–2024 versus 2022, but the latest annual period shows a very large step-up in outflows, raising near-term funding risk. Free cash flow generally tracks net losses closely, suggesting limited non-cash offsets and continued reliance on external capital.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Gross Profit	-251.99K	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
EBITDA	-35.27T	-53.68M	-35.21M	-60.07M	-55.77M
Net Income	-33.85T	-55.85M	-37.54M	-62.02M	-57.78M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	72.06T	104.61M	148.33M	181.29M	233.14M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	70.04T	101.15M	142.82M	174.30M	229.79M
Total Debt	15.53T	15.30M	15.66M	16.08M	15.86M
Total Liabilities	27.81T	33.60M	28.53M	30.28M	27.40M
Stockholders Equity	44.25T	71.00M	119.80M	151.01M	205.74M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-33.35T	-43.21M	-30.33M	-56.65M	-42.56M
Operating Cash Flow	-33.35T	-43.21M	-30.33M	-56.64M	-42.56M
Investing Cash Flow	47.74T	-44.92M	30.00M	-29.95M	-7.81K
Financing Cash Flow	1.12T	-171.42K	-1.27M	1.22M	194.50M

Aldeyra Therapeutics Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 5.46
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ALDX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5.46 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.29, above the 50-day MA of 5.03, and above the 200-day MA of 4.73, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.08 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.18 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.25 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ALDX.

Aldeyra Therapeutics Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CADL	56 Neutral	$280.53M	-9.13	-70.17%	―	―	68.53%
NMRA	52 Neutral	$534.69M	-2.19	-104.35%	―	―	20.71%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
OMER	50 Neutral	$849.39M	-5.94	―	―	―	12.32%
ALDX	49 Neutral	$338.23M	-9.97	-58.73%	―	―	4.23%
FHTX	49 Neutral	$337.43M	-4.85	―	―	-3.91%	37.89%
GALT	46 Neutral	$197.31M	-5.18	―	―	―	18.82%

Aldeyra Therapeutics Corporate Events

Aldeyra Therapeutics Announces Chief Development Officer Resignation

On December 23, 2025, Aldeyra Therapeutics announced that Chief Development Officer Stephen G. Machatha, Ph.D., had voluntarily resigned to pursue other professional opportunities, with his last day to occur on or before March 31, 2026. Under a transition agreement signed the same day, Machatha will remain through the transition period to ensure a smooth handover of responsibilities, continuing to receive his current salary, benefits, and equity vesting, and becoming eligible for up to $176,000 in lump-sum bonus-related payments tied to his 2025 bonus, subject to releases of claims. The company emphasized that his departure was not related to any disagreement over operations, policies, or financial reporting, suggesting that the leadership change is not expected to signal operational or accounting concerns for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (ALDX) stock is a Hold with a $5.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aldeyra Therapeutics stock, see the ALDX Stock Forecast page.

Aldeyra Therapeutics Faces FDA PDUFA Date Extension

On December 15, 2025, Aldeyra Therapeutics announced that the FDA has extended the PDUFA date for its investigational drug, reproxalap, intended for dry eye disease treatment, to March 16, 2026. This extension follows a request from the FDA for additional data from a clinical study report, which was submitted as a major amendment. The extension may impact Aldeyra’s regulatory timeline and market entry for reproxalap, potentially affecting stakeholders and the company’s positioning in the biotechnology sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (ALDX) stock is a Buy with a $10.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aldeyra Therapeutics stock, see the ALDX Stock Forecast page.