Aldeyra Therapeutics (ALDX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $314.05M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 694.43K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 2.30
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: 4.23%
• Country: US
• Employees: 9
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): N/A
• Shares Outstanding: 60,162,773
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 766,980
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 694,433
• PEG Ratio: -0.11
• Price to Book (P/B): 4.18
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -6.87
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.84
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: -2.07K
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -6.39
• 1Y Price Target: $9.50
• Price Target Upside: 81.99% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.11
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $63.60M

• Rating: 50 Neutral
• Price Target: $4.50 ▼(-13.79% Downside)

The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance (pre-revenue, ongoing losses, and heavy cash burn with declining equity). Technicals are only moderately supportive with neutral momentum, and valuation lacks support due to negative earnings. Corporate events are mixed, with encouraging clinical progress offset by a negative regulatory timeline delay.

Positive Factors

Orphan Drug Designation

The orphan drug designation by the EMA for ADX-2191 can enhance market exclusivity and reduce competition, potentially leading to higher revenue if the drug is approved and commercialized.

FDA Fast Track Designation

The fast track designation by the FDA for ADX-2191 could expedite the drug's development and review process, potentially accelerating time to market and improving the company's competitive position in addressing unmet medical needs.

Strategic Board Appointment

The addition of Chip Clark, with extensive biopharmaceutical experience, to the board is likely to strengthen Aldeyra's strategic planning and execution, potentially improving its pipeline development and market positioning.

Negative Factors

Regulatory Challenges

The FDA's Complete Response Letter indicates significant regulatory hurdles, requiring additional studies that could delay product approval and commercialization, impacting financial stability and strategic timelines.

Zero Revenue

The absence of revenue highlights the company's reliance on successful R&D outcomes and external funding, posing sustainability risks if new products are not commercialized soon.

Negative Cash Flow

Persistent negative cash flows indicate a high cash burn rate, which could threaten financial health if external funding sources diminish, necessitating successful product launches to achieve financial stability.

Aldeyra Therapeutics Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Aldeyra Therapeutics, Inc., a biotechnology company, develops and commercializes medicines for immune-mediated ocular and systemic diseases. The company's lead product candidate is reproxalap, a reactive aldehyde species (RASP)modulator, which is in Phase III clinical trial for the treatment of dry eye diseases and allergic conjunctivitis. It also develops ADX-629, a first-in-class orally administered RASP modulator that is Phase II clinical trial for psoriasis, asthma, and COVID-19; and ADX-2191, a dihydrofolate reductase inhibitor which is in phase 3 for the prevention of proliferative vitreoretinopathy, and phase II clinical trial for the treatment of retinitis pigmentosa, as well as for treating primary vitreoretinal lymphoma. The company has a license agreement with Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. for developing ADX-1612, which inhibits the protein chaperome for the treatment of inflammatory diseases. The company was formerly known as Aldexa Therapeutics, Inc. and changed its name to Aldeyra Therapeutics, Inc. in March 2014. Aldeyra Therapeutics, Inc. was incorporated in 2004 and is based in Lexington, Massachusetts.

How the Company Makes Money

Aldeyra Therapeutics primarily makes money through the development and commercialization of its pharmaceutical products. Its revenue model is based on the successful progression of its drug candidates through clinical trials, regulatory approval, and eventual sales in the healthcare market. The company may also enter into licensing agreements and partnerships with larger pharmaceutical companies to enhance development and distribution capabilities, which can provide upfront payments, milestone payments, and royalties. Additionally, Aldeyra might receive funding through grants, collaborations, or equity investments to support its ongoing research and development activities.

Aldeyra Therapeutics Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financial profile is weak: essentially no revenue, persistent net losses, and sustained negative operating/free cash flow with recent burn deterioration. Modest leverage helps, but equity has declined sharply, increasing funding risk until commercialization or other revenue sources emerge.

Income Statement

ALDX continues to generate essentially no revenue across the annual periods and TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), resulting in persistent and sizable operating losses. Losses narrowed meaningfully in 2023 versus 2022 (net loss improved to about -$37.5M from about -$62.0M), but deteriorated again in 2024 (net loss about -$55.9M) and remains elevated in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) (net loss about -$43.2M). Overall, the trend reflects a pre-commercial earnings profile with limited visibility to self-funding profitability.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is modest, with total debt of roughly $15–16M and a manageable debt-to-equity level (about 0.28 in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months)). However, the balance sheet has weakened over time: stockholders’ equity declined materially from ~$205.7M (2021) to ~$71.0M (2024) and ~$49.2M in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), consistent with ongoing losses. Returns on equity are deeply negative, highlighting continued value erosion despite low debt.

Cash Flow

Cash burn remains heavy and consistent with a development-stage biotech profile. Operating cash flow is negative every year and in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) (about -$40.1M), and free cash flow is similarly negative (about -$40.1M in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months)). After an improvement in 2023 (operating cash outflow ~-$30.3M), cash usage worsened in 2024 (~-$43.2M), and TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) free cash flow growth is sharply negative, indicating recent deterioration. The cash flow profile implies continued reliance on external financing unless revenue ramps.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Gross Profit	-126.66K	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	-56.22K
EBITDA	-41.04M	-53.68M	-35.21M	-60.07M	-55.77M	-36.07M
Net Income	-43.19M	-55.85M	-37.54M	-62.02M	-57.78M	-37.55M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	77.80M	104.61M	148.33M	181.29M	233.14M	83.35M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	75.30M	101.15M	142.82M	174.30M	229.79M	77.86M
Total Debt	15.54M	15.30M	15.66M	16.08M	15.86M	15.33M
Total Liabilities	28.56M	33.60M	28.53M	30.28M	27.40M	23.84M
Stockholders Equity	49.24M	71.00M	119.80M	151.01M	205.74M	59.51M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-40.08M	-43.21M	-30.33M	-56.65M	-42.56M	-37.49M
Operating Cash Flow	-40.08M	-43.21M	-30.33M	-56.64M	-42.56M	-37.49M
Investing Cash Flow	30.17M	-44.92M	30.00M	-29.95M	-7.81K	29.02M
Financing Cash Flow	1.13M	-171.42K	-1.27M	1.22M	194.50M	41.90M

Aldeyra Therapeutics Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 5.22
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ALDX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5.22 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.85, above the 50-day MA of 4.92, and above the 200-day MA of 4.50, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.17 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.48 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 44.66 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ALDX.

Aldeyra Therapeutics Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CADL	56 Neutral	$313.47M	-10.21	-70.17%	―	―	68.53%
NMRA	52 Neutral	$337.52M	-1.38	-104.35%	―	―	20.71%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
ALDX	50 Neutral	$314.05M	-7.23	-64.31%	―	―	4.23%
OMER	50 Neutral	$816.06M	-5.70	―	―	―	12.32%
FHTX	49 Neutral	$329.81M	-4.74	―	―	-3.91%	37.89%
GALT	46 Neutral	$190.86M	-5.01	―	―	―	18.82%

Aldeyra Therapeutics Corporate Events

Aldeyra Therapeutics Announces Chief Development Officer Resignation

On December 23, 2025, Aldeyra Therapeutics announced that Chief Development Officer Stephen G. Machatha, Ph.D., had voluntarily resigned to pursue other professional opportunities, with his last day to occur on or before March 31, 2026. Under a transition agreement signed the same day, Machatha will remain through the transition period to ensure a smooth handover of responsibilities, continuing to receive his current salary, benefits, and equity vesting, and becoming eligible for up to $176,000 in lump-sum bonus-related payments tied to his 2025 bonus, subject to releases of claims. The company emphasized that his departure was not related to any disagreement over operations, policies, or financial reporting, suggesting that the leadership change is not expected to signal operational or accounting concerns for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (ALDX) stock is a Hold with a $5.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aldeyra Therapeutics stock, see the ALDX Stock Forecast page.

Aldeyra Therapeutics Faces FDA PDUFA Date Extension

On December 15, 2025, Aldeyra Therapeutics announced that the FDA has extended the PDUFA date for its investigational drug, reproxalap, intended for dry eye disease treatment, to March 16, 2026. This extension follows a request from the FDA for additional data from a clinical study report, which was submitted as a major amendment. The extension may impact Aldeyra’s regulatory timeline and market entry for reproxalap, potentially affecting stakeholders and the company’s positioning in the biotechnology sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (ALDX) stock is a Buy with a $10.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aldeyra Therapeutics stock, see the ALDX Stock Forecast page.

Aldeyra Therapeutics Expands RASP Platform in 2025 Webcast

On November 13, 2025, Aldeyra Therapeutics announced updates during its 2025 Research & Development Webcast, including the expansion of its RASP platform to address central nervous system diseases and manufacturing updates on reproxalap, a drug candidate for dry eye disease. The webcast highlighted the company’s ongoing clinical trials and regulatory plans, emphasizing the potential impact on its market positioning and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (ALDX) stock is a Buy with a $9.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aldeyra Therapeutics stock, see the ALDX Stock Forecast page.