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AGNC Investment
(NASDAQ:AGNC)
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Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
$11.50
▲(8.59% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/01/26
AGNC’s score is primarily held back by balance-sheet risk (very high leverage) and uneven top-line/cash-flow stability despite strong recent profitability. Valuation is a key support (low P/E and very high dividend yield), while technicals are mixed (above longer-term moving averages but below the 20-day). The latest earnings call was net positive with supportive H2 MBS technicals, disciplined leverage and liquidity, but near-term book value pressure and spread compression remain notable risks.
Positive Factors
Strong recent profitability
Sustained multi-period profitability and a very high TTM net margin indicate the core agency-MBS spread engine is generating durable economic returns. This strengthens internal cash generation, supports the large dividend cadence and funds opportunistic reinvestment when spreads are attractive.
Negative Factors
Very high leverage
Extremely elevated leverage materially amplifies earnings volatility and exposure to funding-cost moves. With debt many times equity, even modest spread compression or funding stress can sharply reduce book value or dividends, limiting financial flexibility over a multi-month horizon.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong recent profitability
Sustained multi-period profitability and a very high TTM net margin indicate the core agency-MBS spread engine is generating durable economic returns. This strengthens internal cash generation, supports the large dividend cadence and funds opportunistic reinvestment when spreads are attractive.
Read all positive factors
AGNC Investment Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Investment Portfolio by Segment
Displays allocation across asset types (agency MBS, cash, derivatives, other loans), indicating where yield and risk are concentrated—useful for assessing income stability, diversification, and sensitivity to housing and rate cycles.
Displays allocation across asset types (agency MBS, cash, derivatives, other loans), indicating where yield and risk are concentrated—useful for assessing income stability, diversification, and sensitivity to housing and rate cycles.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAGNC Investment (AGNC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$12.24B
Dividend Yield13.51%
Average Volume (3M)16.55M
Price to Earnings (P/E)5.4
Beta (1Y)0.56
Revenue Growth133.36%
EPS Growth486.52%
CountryUS
Employees54
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Mortgage
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.97
Shares Outstanding1,147,929,300
10 Day Avg. Volume20,304,895
30 Day Avg. Volume16,549,441
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.12
Price to Book (P/B)0.88
Price to Sales (P/S)5.72
P/FCF Ratio16.74
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$11.13Price Target Upside5.05% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering12
EPS Forecast (FY)1.58
Revenue Forecast (FY)$4.23B
AGNC Investment Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) is a mortgage real estate investment trust (mREIT) in the financial services sector that invests primarily in agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS)—residential mortgage pass-through securities and collateralized mort...
How the Company Makes Money
AGNC primarily makes money from the net interest income generated by its investment portfolio. The company buys agency MBS that pay interest and principal cash flows, and it finances a significant portion of these holdings using short-term borrowi...
AGNC Investment Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 20, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 26, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated strong company-level performance and portfolio execution—notably a 6.7% economic return, continued Agency MBS outperformance, strong quarter and one-year total stock returns, disciplined capital actions and attractive marginal ROEs—supported by favorable supply/demand technicals (lower net new MBS supply, >$400B bond fund inflows). These positives are tempered by meaningful macro and geopolitical headwinds (US–Iran tensions, higher energy-driven inflation risk), increased market and policy uncertainty, modest compression in net spread income (down $0.02 QoQ; -6 bps net interest spread) and a ~1% decline in tangible book value in the very near term. On balance, the highlights outweigh the lowlights, with management emphasizing disciplined positioning to capture attractive Agency MBS opportunities as volatility and uncertainties abate.Positive Updates
Strong Economic and Shareholder Returns
Economic return on tangible common equity of 6.7% for Q2 2026; comprehensive income of $0.52 per common share; $0.36 of dividends declared per common share and a $0.20 increase in tangible net book value per share noted. Total stock return for the quarter was 12.3% (with dividends reinvested) and 1-year total stock return was 36.1%. Paid the 75th consecutive monthly dividend of $0.12 per share.
Negative Updates
Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Headwinds
Escalating hostilities between the U.S. and Iran constrained shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, elevated energy prices and caused supply chain disruptions; these factors drove higher Treasury yields, a flatter yield curve and a market pivot from expecting rate cuts to pricing potential rate hikes by year-end.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Economic and Shareholder Returns
Economic return on tangible common equity of 6.7% for Q2 2026; comprehensive income of $0.52 per common share; $0.36 of dividends declared per common share and a $0.20 increase in tangible net book value per share noted. Total stock return for the quarter was 12.3% (with dividends reinvested) and 1-year total stock return was 36.1%. Paid the 75th consecutive monthly dividend of $0.12 per share.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
AGNC guided that favorable supply/demand dynamics should support Agency MBS performance in H2, expecting net new supply this year to fall to about $150 billion (possibly $100–150bn), with bond fund inflows >$400bn year-to-date and the GSEs retaining roughly $120bn of purchase capacity; agency spreads were trading near ~145bps to a swap blend (within a 120–160bps expected range) and marginal spreads of ~130–150bps would generate ROEs of ~15–17% at 7–7.5x leverage; the company plans to operate with leverage around 7.4x, keep a positive duration gap (~0.7 years), maintain the $0.12 monthly dividend (75th consecutive), stay opportunistic on capital (Q2 ATM issuance $167m), and preserve liquidity with $7.5bn of unencumbered cash/MBS (~62% of tangible equity).AGNC Investment Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
45
Neutral
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.09B | 1.91B | 4.88B | 1.01B | 3.30B | 2.41B |
| Gross Profit | 2.34B | 1.91B | 4.88B | 1.01B | 3.30B | 2.41B |
| EBITDA | 3.91B | 4.70B | 3.79B | 2.44B | -552.00M | 1.19B |
| Net Income | 2.22B | 1.67B | 863.00M | 155.00M | -1.19B | 749.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 121.76B | 115.08B | 88.02B | 71.60B | 51.75B | 68.15B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 457.00M | 1.74B | 505.00M | 518.00M | 2.33B | 1.52B |
| Total Debt | 89.81B | 101.79B | 64.00M | 80.00M | 42.89B | 57.20B |
| Total Liabilities | 109.22B | 102.68B | 78.25B | 63.34B | 43.88B | 57.86B |
| Stockholders Equity | 12.54B | 12.39B | 9.76B | 8.26B | 7.87B | 10.29B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.28B | 653.00M | 86.00M | -118.00M | 1.01B | 1.54B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.28B | 653.00M | 86.00M | -118.00M | 1.01B | 1.54B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -23.37B | -25.86B | -11.17B | -14.67B | 11.19B | 3.84B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 22.63B | 25.18B | 11.08B | 14.23B | -11.39B | -6.17B |
AGNC Investment Technical Analysis
Neutral
10.59
Price Trends
10.51
Positive
10.27
Positive
10.12
Positive
Market Momentum
<0.01
Positive
47.53
Neutral
22.43
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AGNC, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 10.59 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.79, above the 50-day MA of 10.51, and above the 200-day MA of 10.12, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.53 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 22.43 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AGNC.
AGNC Investment Risk Analysis
AGNC Investment disclosed 45 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. AGNC Investment reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
AGNC Investment Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $17.12B | 5.67 | 18.39% | 12.69% | 19.43% | 297.06% | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
63 Neutral | $12.24B | 5.41 | 18.30% | 13.60% | 133.36% | 486.52% | |
62 Neutral | $2.33B | 4.42 | 18.52% | 17.70% | 34.24% | ― | |
60 Neutral | $5.52B | 16.20 | 5.55% | 10.96% | 7.55% | -53.30% | |
52 Neutral | $866.87M | 8.28 | 6.88% | 42.82% | 3.09% | ― | |
49 Neutral | $1.04B | -23.55 | 0.75% | 13.12% | 10.27% | -151.66% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
AGNC
AGNC Investment
10.61
2.40
29.28%
NLY
Annaly Capital
22.66
4.61
25.56%
ARI
Apollo Real Estate
6.69
0.74
12.44%
ARR
ARMOUR Residential REIT
16.55
3.23
24.22%
CIM
Chimera Investment
11.86
0.13
1.15%
RITM
Rithm Capital
9.94
-1.11
-10.02%
AGNC Investment Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
AGNC Investment Launches New $2 Billion ATM Program
Positive
May 29, 2026
On May 28, 2026, AGNC Investment Corp. launched a new at-the-market common stock issuance program, entering into separate sales agreements with a syndicate of major broker-dealers to sell up to $2 billion of its common stock. The shares may be sol...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.