AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC)
NASDAQ:AGNC
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AGNC Investment
(NASDAQ:AGNC)
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Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
$11.00
▲(0.92% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/29/26
AGNC’s score is held back primarily by balance-sheet risk (very high leverage) and historically volatile results, despite a recent earnings/cash-flow rebound. Valuation is a meaningful positive (low P/E and high dividend yield), while technicals are broadly neutral and the latest earnings commentary is cautiously constructive but offset by near-term book value and return pressure.
Positive Factors
Government‑backed MBS exposure
AGNC’s core holdings are agency MBS with GSE or government guarantees, which materially reduce credit risk versus non‑agency mortgages. Over the medium term this supports more predictable principal and interest cash flows that fit the REIT dividend model and lessen credit‑loss volatility.
Negative Factors
Very high leverage
Debt levels magnify both upside and downside: small spread or funding cost moves translate into large earnings and book‑value swings. Elevated leverage reduces capital flexibility, raises refinancing and margin‑call vulnerability, and weakens resilience to prolonged adverse rate or funding shocks.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Government‑backed MBS exposure
AGNC’s core holdings are agency MBS with GSE or government guarantees, which materially reduce credit risk versus non‑agency mortgages. Over the medium term this supports more predictable principal and interest cash flows that fit the REIT dividend model and lessen credit‑loss volatility.
Read all positive factors
AGNC Investment (AGNC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$11.95B
Dividend Yield13.98%
Average Volume (3M)15.35M
Price to Earnings (P/E)7.9
Beta (1Y)0.60
Revenue Growth35.16%
EPS Growth208.36%
CountryUS
Employees53
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Mortgage
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.28
Shares Outstanding1,147,929,300
10 Day Avg. Volume15,902,641
30 Day Avg. Volume15,350,170
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.11
Price to Book (P/B)0.88
Price to Sales (P/S)5.72
P/FCF Ratio16.74
Enterprise Value/Market Cap9.72
Enterprise Value/Revenue34.39
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit43.90
Enterprise Value/Ebitda28.56
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$11.21Price Target Upside2.88% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)1.55
Revenue Forecast (FY)$4.18B
AGNC Investment Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
AGNC Investment Corp. operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT) in the United States. The company invests in residential mortgage pass-through securities and collateralized mortgage obligations for which the principal and interest payments...
How the Company Makes Money
AGNC makes money primarily by earning net interest income from a leveraged portfolio of agency MBS. The core model is: (1) buy agency MBS that pay interest, (2) finance much of those holdings with short-term borrowings (commonly through repurchase...
AGNC Investment Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 20, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 27, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call conveyed a mixed but resilient picture: the company reported a near‑term loss and tangible book value decline driven by spread widening and geopolitical‑related volatility, but highlighted several positive fundamentals — stronger net spread and dollar roll income, high liquidity, an accretive equity raise, portfolio positioning that benefited from low‑coupon demand, and a partial recovery in April. Management emphasized attractive relative value in Agency MBS, constructive technicals (reduced net new supply expectations, improved money manager demand, and potential supportive GSE actions), and a cautious but flexible approach to leverage and hedging. Overall, positives and mitigants balance the quarter's challenges, leaving the outlook cautiously constructive but not uniformly positive.Positive Updates
Improved Net Spread and Dollar Roll Income
Net spread and dollar roll income was $0.42 per common share for the quarter, up $0.07 quarter‑over‑quarter, driven by a 25 basis point increase in net interest spread and favorable financing dynamics.
Negative Updates
Negative Economic Return and Comprehensive Loss
Economic return on tangible common equity was negative 1.6% for the quarter and AGNC reported a comprehensive loss of $0.18 per common share.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Improved Net Spread and Dollar Roll Income
Net spread and dollar roll income was $0.42 per common share for the quarter, up $0.07 quarter‑over‑quarter, driven by a 25 basis point increase in net interest spread and favorable financing dynamics.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
On the call AGNC reiterated a constructive but cautious outlook for Agency MBS, citing Q1 metrics including an economic return of -1.6%, a comprehensive loss of $0.18 per common share, $0.36 of dividends declared, and a $0.50 decline in tangible net book value per share (with TNAV up ~6% in April or ~5% net of the monthly dividend accrual). Balance sheet and liquidity remain strong with ending leverage of 7.4x (average 7.4x; 7.2x in Q4), $7 billion of unencumbered cash and Agency MBS (≈60% of tangible equity), a $95 billion market value portfolio, $64 billion of hedge notional (swap hedge allocation up to 78% from 70%), and $401 million of common equity issued via ATM. Portfolio and spread dynamics drove net spread and dollar roll income of $0.42 per share (up $0.07 q/q), a 25 bp increase in net interest spread to a margin of 2.06, projected life CPR rising to 10.3% (from 9.6%) with actual CPRs averaging 13.2% (vs 9.7% prior), a weighted average coupon down to 4.95% (from 5.12%), 77% of assets with favorable prepayment characteristics, $1.7 billion of low-coupon specified pool purchases, and TBA/ spread context (current-coupon to swaps running roughly 140–150 bps, recent range 150–175 bps, Q4 level ~135 bps; current-coupon to Treasuries ~120 bps). Management said returns at current spreads imply roughly 15–17% (centered ~16%) and expects net spread and dollar roll income in the high‑30s to low‑40s cents per quarter over the near term, while remaining prepared to adjust leverage and positioning as geopolitical, Fed and GSE actions evolve.AGNC Investment Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
64
Positive
Balance Sheet
38
Negative
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.38B | 1.91B | 4.88B | 1.01B | 3.30B | 2.41B |
| Gross Profit | 2.65B | 1.91B | 4.88B | 1.01B | 3.30B | 2.41B |
| EBITDA | 4.07B | 4.70B | 3.79B | 2.44B | -565.00M | 824.00M |
| Net Income | 1.47B | 1.67B | 863.00M | 155.00M | -1.19B | 749.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 118.90B | 115.08B | 88.02B | 71.60B | 51.75B | 68.15B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 493.00M | 1.74B | 505.00M | 518.00M | 2.33B | 1.52B |
| Total Debt | 104.65B | 101.79B | 64.00M | 80.00M | 42.89B | 57.20B |
| Total Liabilities | 106.72B | 102.68B | 78.25B | 63.34B | 43.88B | 57.86B |
| Stockholders Equity | 12.18B | 12.39B | 9.76B | 8.26B | 7.87B | 10.29B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 848.00M | 653.00M | 86.00M | -118.00M | 1.01B | 1.54B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 848.00M | 653.00M | 86.00M | -118.00M | 1.01B | 1.54B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -22.13B | -25.86B | -11.17B | -14.67B | 11.19B | 3.84B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 21.92B | 25.18B | 11.08B | 14.23B | -11.39B | -6.17B |
AGNC Investment Technical Analysis
Positive
10.90
Price Trends
10.28
Positive
10.52
Negative
9.92
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.04
Positive
50.93
Neutral
57.78
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AGNC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 10.9 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.43, above the 50-day MA of 10.28, and above the 200-day MA of 9.92, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.04 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.93 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 57.78 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AGNC.
AGNC Investment Risk Analysis
AGNC Investment disclosed 45 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. AGNC Investment reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
AGNC Investment Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
63 Neutral | $16.01B | 7.22 | 14.41% | 12.40% | 12.27% | 237.09% | |
63 Neutral | $1.46B | 12.01 | 6.88% | 9.89% | 3.09% | ― | |
59 Neutral | $11.95B | 7.94 | 12.70% | 13.98% | 35.16% | 208.36% | |
56 Neutral | $1.14B | 59.06 | 0.75% | 11.40% | 10.27% | -151.66% | |
55 Neutral | $5.20B | 7.13 | 8.69% | 8.95% | 7.75% | -8.30% | |
53 Neutral | $2.13B | 8.53 | 11.47% | 15.06% | 67.32% | ― |
* Real Estate Sector Average
AGNC
AGNC Investment
10.41
2.74
35.65%
NLY
Annaly Capital
21.85
5.52
33.83%
ARI
Apollo Real Estate
10.96
2.16
24.52%
ARR
ARMOUR Residential REIT
17.15
3.64
26.95%
CIM
Chimera Investment
13.62
2.04
17.59%
RITM
Rithm Capital
9.32
-0.76
-7.55%
AGNC Investment Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
AGNC Investment Launches New $2 Billion ATM Program
Positive
May 29, 2026
On May 28, 2026, AGNC Investment Corp. launched a new at-the-market common stock issuance program, entering into separate sales agreements with a syndicate of major broker-dealers to sell up to $2 billion of its common stock. The shares may be sol...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
AGNC Investment Shareholders Back Board, Pay and Auditor
Positive
Apr 17, 2026
On April 16, 2026, AGNC Investment Corp. held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, with more than two‑thirds of eligible common shares represented in person or by proxy. Stockholders elected ten directors to one‑year terms, includi...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.