AGNC Investment (AGNC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $10.66B
• Dividend Yield: 14.15%
• Average Volume (3M): 18.56M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 31.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.92
• Revenue Growth: -18.28%
• EPS Growth: -10.62%
• Country: US
• Employees: 53
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: REIT - Mortgage
• EPS (TTM): 0.38
• Shares Outstanding: 1,041,732,500
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 22,835,367
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 18,556,717
• PEG Ratio: <0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.74
• Price to Sales (P/S): 7.42
• P/FCF Ratio: 83.90
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 9.35
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 200.86
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 168.86
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 29.96
• 1Y Price Target: $9.75
• Price Target Upside: -4.22% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 11

• Rating: 59 Neutral
• Price Target: $11.00 ▲(8.06% Upside)

AGNC's overall stock score reflects a combination of mixed financial performance, bullish technical indicators, and attractive dividend yield. The strong liquidity position and capital raising efforts are positives, but high leverage and declining economic returns present risks. The stock's valuation suggests potential overvaluation, tempered by a high dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Strong Liquidity Position

A strong liquidity position enhances AGNC's ability to manage financial obligations and invest in growth opportunities, supporting long-term stability.

Positive Developments in Agency MBS Market

The reaffirmation of implicit guarantees for Agency MBS improves market confidence and supports AGNC's core investment strategy, benefiting long-term returns.

Accretive Capital Raising

Raising capital at a premium strengthens AGNC's financial base, providing resources for strategic investments and enhancing shareholder value over time.

Negative Factors

Decline in Revenue

A significant revenue decline challenges AGNC's ability to sustain profitability and may impact its capacity to maintain dividend payouts, affecting long-term growth.

High Leverage

High leverage increases financial risk, potentially limiting AGNC's flexibility to navigate economic downturns and invest in growth opportunities.

Decline in Economic Returns

Declining economic returns signal challenges in generating shareholder value, which may affect AGNC's attractiveness as an investment over the long term.

AGNC Investment Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that primarily focuses on investing in agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) on a leveraged basis. Based in Bethesda, Maryland, the company operates within the financial sector, specifically in the mortgage finance industry. AGNC seeks to provide attractive risk-adjusted returns to its shareholders through a combination of dividends and capital appreciation, utilizing its expertise in managing a portfolio of MBS backed by government-sponsored entities.

How the Company Makes Money

AGNC generates revenue primarily through the interest income earned on its investment portfolio, which consists mainly of agency mortgage-backed securities. The company employs a leveraged investment strategy, borrowing funds at lower interest rates to purchase MBS, which typically offer higher yields. This interest rate spread, or net interest income, constitutes a significant portion of AGNC's revenue. Additionally, AGNC may engage in hedging activities to manage interest rate risk and may also earn income from sales of securities or from capital appreciation of its portfolio. The company pays out a substantial portion of its earnings as dividends to shareholders, which is a key aspect of its investment appeal. Factors contributing to its earnings include prevailing interest rates, the performance of the housing market, and the overall economic environment.

AGNC Investment Financial Statement Overview

Summary

AGNC's financial performance is mixed. The income statement shows declining revenue and profitability, while the balance sheet indicates high leverage. However, the cash flow statement reveals positive cash flow growth, which is a strength. Overall, the company needs to address revenue declines and manage leverage to improve its financial health.

Income Statement

AGNC's income statement shows significant volatility. The TTM data indicates a sharp decline in revenue by 68.5%, which is concerning. However, the company maintains a high gross profit margin, suggesting effective cost management. The net profit margin has decreased compared to the previous year, indicating reduced profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are strong, but the negative revenue growth is a major concern.

Balance Sheet

AGNC's balance sheet reflects a high debt-to-equity ratio in the TTM period, indicating increased leverage, which could pose financial risks. The return on equity is low, suggesting limited profitability from shareholder investments. However, the equity ratio remains stable, indicating a solid asset base relative to equity.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement shows a positive trend with a significant increase in free cash flow growth in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is low, indicating potential challenges in converting income into cash. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is stable, suggesting efficient cash management.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	496.00M	973.00M	251.00M	-1.12B	837.00M	-173.00M
Gross Profit	590.00M	973.00M	251.00M	-1.12B	837.00M	-173.00M
EBITDA	3.33B	3.92B	2.59B	2.40B	824.00M	554.00M
Net Income	378.00M	863.00M	155.00M	-1.19B	749.00M	-266.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	102.02B	88.02B	71.60B	51.75B	68.15B	81.82B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	656.00M	505.00M	518.00M	1.02B	998.00M	1.02B
Total Debt	90.52B	64.00M	80.00M	95.00M	126.00M	177.00M
Total Liabilities	91.67B	78.25B	63.34B	43.88B	57.86B	70.74B
Stockholders Equity	10.35B	9.76B	8.26B	7.87B	10.29B	11.08B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	458.00M	86.00M	-118.00M	1.01B	1.54B	1.75B
Operating Cash Flow	458.00M	86.00M	-118.00M	1.01B	1.54B	1.75B
Investing Cash Flow	-13.86B	-11.17B	-14.67B	11.19B	3.84B	36.52B
Financing Cash Flow	13.37B	11.08B	14.23B	-11.39B	-6.17B	-37.23B

AGNC Investment Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 10.18
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AGNC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 10.18 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.87, above the 50-day MA of 9.51, and above the 200-day MA of 8.95, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.24 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.13 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 73.17 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AGNC.

AGNC Investment Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
RITM	68 Neutral	$6.65B	9.70	10.13%	8.08%	26.69%	9.10%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$7.11B	13.20	-0.30%	6.85%	4.02%	-23.53%
CIM	63 Neutral	$1.17B	11.54	7.32%	10.44%	4.83%	-25.07%
NLY	60 Neutral	$14.22B	22.04	5.94%	12.27%	2.28%	―
AGNC	59 Neutral	$10.66B	31.51	3.98%	14.15%	-18.28%	-10.62%
ARI	57 Neutral	$1.53B	―	-0.35%	9.23%	-26.29%	-342.06%
ARR	48 Neutral	$1.72B	8.01	-2.04%	18.80%	157.34%	91.67%

AGNC Investment Corporate Events

AGNC Investment Expands Capital with Preferred Stock Offering

On September 3, 2025, AGNC Investment Corp. entered into an underwriting agreement with several major financial institutions for the sale of 12,000,000 depositary shares, each representing a portion of the company’s Series H Fixed-Rate Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock. The underwriters exercised their option to purchase an additional 1,800,000 shares on September 5, 2025, with the offering expected to close on September 10, 2025, pending customary conditions. This move is part of AGNC’s strategy to strengthen its financial position and enhance its market offerings, potentially impacting stakeholders by increasing the company’s capital base.