AGNC Investment (AGNC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $10.89B
• Dividend Yield: 14.2%
• Average Volume (3M): 21.70M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 15.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.60
• Revenue Growth: 729.50%
• EPS Growth: -53.65%
• Country: US
• Employees: 53
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: REIT - Mortgage
• EPS (TTM): 0.35
• Shares Outstanding: 1,072,724,100
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 21,762,356
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 21,703,879
• PEG Ratio: <0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.74
• Price to Sales (P/S): 7.42
• P/FCF Ratio: 83.90
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 9.68
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 116.35
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 543.37
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 27.49
• 1Y Price Target: $10.18
• Price Target Upside: 0.30% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 11
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.54
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $3.45B

• Rating: 66 Neutral
• Price Target: $11.00 ▲(8.37% Upside)

AGNC's overall stock score reflects strong revenue growth and profitability, supported by a positive technical trend and attractive dividend yield. However, high leverage and operational inefficiencies pose financial stability risks. The earnings call provided mixed signals, with strong liquidity and capital raising offset by declining economic returns and wider MBS spreads.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

AGNC's impressive revenue growth reflects its ability to expand its investment portfolio effectively, enhancing its market position and potential for sustained profitability.

Liquidity Position

A robust liquidity position ensures AGNC can capitalize on investment opportunities and manage financial obligations, supporting long-term stability and growth.

Positive Market Outlook

A constructive market outlook for Agency MBS positions AGNC to benefit from improved spreads and investor sentiment, enhancing its ability to generate attractive returns.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

High leverage increases financial risk, potentially impacting AGNC's ability to weather economic downturns and limiting its financial flexibility.

Economic Return Decline

Declining economic returns indicate challenges in generating sufficient returns on equity, which could affect AGNC's long-term profitability and shareholder value.

Operational Challenges

Operational challenges reflected in a negative EBIT margin suggest inefficiencies that may hinder AGNC's ability to sustain profitability and manage costs effectively.

AGNC Investment Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that primarily focuses on investing in agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) on a leveraged basis. Based in Bethesda, Maryland, the company operates within the financial sector, specifically in the mortgage finance industry. AGNC seeks to provide attractive risk-adjusted returns to its shareholders through a combination of dividends and capital appreciation, utilizing its expertise in managing a portfolio of MBS backed by government-sponsored entities.

How the Company Makes Money

AGNC generates revenue primarily through the interest income earned on its investment portfolio, which consists mainly of agency mortgage-backed securities. The company employs a leveraged investment strategy, borrowing funds at lower interest rates to purchase MBS, which typically offer higher yields. This interest rate spread, or net interest income, constitutes a significant portion of AGNC's revenue. Additionally, AGNC may engage in hedging activities to manage interest rate risk and may also earn income from sales of securities or from capital appreciation of its portfolio. The company pays out a substantial portion of its earnings as dividends to shareholders, which is a key aspect of its investment appeal. Factors contributing to its earnings include prevailing interest rates, the performance of the housing market, and the overall economic environment.

AGNC Investment Financial Statement Overview

Summary

AGNC Investment shows strong revenue growth and profitability with a net profit margin of 92.49% and revenue growth of 82.66% TTM. However, the negative EBIT margin and high debt-to-equity ratio of 8.30 indicate operational challenges and financial instability risks. Cash flow generation is robust, but the reliance on debt financing is concerning.

Income Statement

AGNC Investment's income statement shows a strong net profit margin of 92.49% for the TTM, indicating high profitability. However, the EBIT margin is negative, suggesting operational challenges. Revenue growth is impressive at 82.66% TTM, reflecting significant top-line expansion. Despite these strengths, the negative EBIT margin and fluctuating revenue in previous years highlight potential volatility.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 8.30 TTM, indicating significant leverage, which could pose financial risks. Return on equity is modest at 8.06%, showing moderate efficiency in generating returns from equity. The equity ratio is relatively low, suggesting a heavy reliance on debt financing. These factors point to potential financial instability.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows a positive free cash flow growth rate of 31.88% TTM, indicating strong cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is low, suggesting potential issues in converting income into cash. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is stable at 1.0, reflecting consistent cash flow management.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	906.00M	973.00M	251.00M	-1.12B	837.00M	-173.00M
Gross Profit	194.00M	973.00M	251.00M	-1.12B	837.00M	-173.00M
EBITDA	3.83B	3.88B	5.12B	2.40B	2.41B	554.00M
Net Income	838.00M	863.00M	155.00M	-1.19B	749.00M	-266.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	108.97B	88.02B	71.60B	51.75B	68.15B	81.82B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.95B	1.77B	518.00M	1.02B	998.00M	1.02B
Total Debt	94.95B	64.00M	80.00M	95.00M	126.00M	177.00M
Total Liabilities	97.53B	78.25B	63.34B	43.88B	57.86B	70.74B
Stockholders Equity	11.44B	9.76B	8.26B	7.87B	10.29B	11.08B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	604.00M	86.00M	-118.00M	1.01B	1.54B	1.75B
Operating Cash Flow	604.00M	86.00M	-118.00M	1.01B	1.54B	1.75B
Investing Cash Flow	-9.58B	-11.17B	-14.67B	11.19B	3.84B	36.52B
Financing Cash Flow	9.10B	11.08B	14.23B	-11.39B	-6.17B	-37.23B

AGNC Investment Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 10.15
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AGNC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 10.15 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.11, above the 50-day MA of 9.94, and above the 200-day MA of 9.10, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.09 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 54.18 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 54.85 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AGNC.

AGNC Investment Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
AGNC	66 Neutral	$10.89B	15.35	7.94%	14.20%	729.50%	-53.65%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
ARI	64 Neutral	$1.37B	11.15	7.26%	10.12%	0.29%	―
NLY	63 Neutral	$14.79B	10.02	10.94%	12.70%	17.14%	―
CIM	63 Neutral	$1.00B	―	2.10%	12.30%	9.46%	-111.44%
ARR	58 Neutral	$1.87B	360.48	3.75%	17.26%	-27.55%	-97.87%
RITM	57 Neutral	$6.16B	7.68	10.78%	8.99%	-1.07%	47.50%

AGNC Investment Corporate Events

AGNC Investment Corp. Reports Strong Q3 2025 Results

AGNC Investment Corp. is a prominent investor in Agency residential mortgage-backed securities, operating primarily in the financial sector with a focus on leveraging investments to optimize returns. The company is known for its dynamic risk management strategies and significant contributions to the U.S. residential housing market.

AGNC Investment Issues Series H Preferred Stock

On September 10, 2025, AGNC Investment Corp. issued 13,800 shares of Series H Preferred Stock in connection with an underwriting agreement dated September 3, 2025. The shares were deposited with Computershare Inc. and Computershare Trust Company, N.A., acting as depositary. The company also entered into a Deposit Agreement with these entities and received a legal opinion from Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom LLP regarding the validity of the shares and related common stock.

The most recent analyst rating on (AGNC) stock is a Hold with a $11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AGNC Investment stock, see the AGNC Stock Forecast page.

AGNC Investment Expands Capital with Preferred Stock Offering

On September 3, 2025, AGNC Investment Corp. entered into an underwriting agreement with several major financial institutions for the sale of 12,000,000 depositary shares, each representing a portion of the company’s Series H Fixed-Rate Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock. The underwriters exercised their option to purchase an additional 1,800,000 shares on September 5, 2025, with the offering expected to close on September 10, 2025, pending customary conditions. This move is part of AGNC’s strategy to strengthen its financial position and enhance its market offerings, potentially impacting stakeholders by increasing the company’s capital base.

The most recent analyst rating on (AGNC) stock is a Hold with a $9.75 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AGNC Investment stock, see the AGNC Stock Forecast page.