AGNC Investment (AGNC)
NASDAQ:AGNC
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AGNC Investment
(NASDAQ:AGNC)
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Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$10.50
▲(3.55% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/24/26
AGNC scores as moderately attractive: valuation is a key positive (low P/E and very high yield), and technicals are mildly supportive but not strong. The main offset is financial risk—especially elevated leverage and historically volatile revenue/cash flow—while the latest earnings call was constructive yet cautious due to tighter spreads, rising prepayments, and policy risks.
Positive Factors
Agency MBS / GSE guarantees
AGNC’s core asset base is agency mortgage‑backed securities whose principal and interest are guaranteed by GSEs or Ginnie Mae, materially reducing credit/default risk versus private RMBS. This structural credit protection supports predictable principal recovery and long‑term income resilience.
Negative Factors
High leverage
AGNC’s materially elevated leverage (~8.2x debt/equity) amplifies sensitivity to funding cost moves and MBS valuation swings. High repo and short‑term financing reliance can compress net spread and force deleveraging during adverse rate/funding episodes, increasing long‑term earnings volatility.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Agency MBS / GSE guarantees
AGNC’s core asset base is agency mortgage‑backed securities whose principal and interest are guaranteed by GSEs or Ginnie Mae, materially reducing credit/default risk versus private RMBS. This structural credit protection supports predictable principal recovery and long‑term income resilience.
Read all positive factors
AGNC Investment (AGNC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$11.39B
Dividend Yield13.98%
Average Volume (3M)22.42M
Price to Earnings (P/E)3.1
Beta (1Y)0.60
Revenue Growth729.50%
EPS Growth-53.65%
CountryUS
Employees53
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Mortgage
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.35
Shares Outstanding1,123,239,400
10 Day Avg. Volume22,721,778
30 Day Avg. Volume22,424,305
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.11
Price to Book (P/B)0.88
Price to Sales (P/S)5.72
P/FCF Ratio16.74
Enterprise Value/Market Cap9.87
Enterprise Value/Revenue58.57
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit58.57
Enterprise Value/Ebitda24.88
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$11.71Price Target Upside15.48% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)1.53
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.82B
AGNC Investment Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
AGNC Investment Corp. operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT) in the United States. The company invests in residential mortgage pass-through securities and collateralized mortgage obligations for which the principal and interest payments...
How the Company Makes Money
AGNC primarily makes money from the net interest spread between (1) the yield it earns on its agency MBS and (2) its cost of funds, which largely comes from short-term borrowing. In practice, AGNC purchases agency MBS and finances a significant po...
AGNC Investment Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 27, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong recent performance, robust liquidity, accretive capital issuance in 2025, and favorable technical and macro drivers (Fed accommodation, GSE purchases, lower volatility) that supported exceptional returns. Management is constructive but prudent: spreads have tightened, prepayment risk has risen, and incremental deployment returns are closer to the firm’s cost of capital, prompting measured leverage and opportunistic capital activity. Key upside drivers remain GSE/Treasury actions, improved funding markets and swap-hedge positioning, while downside risks include potential adverse policy reforms and faster-than-expected prepayments.Positive Updates
Strong Quarterly and Annual Returns
Q4 2025 economic return of 11.6% and full-year 2025 economic return of 22.7%; Q4 comprehensive income of $0.89 per common share. Total stock return in 2025 was 34.8% with dividends reinvested, nearly double the S&P 500.
Negative Updates
Tighter Spreads Reduce Incremental Returns
Mortgage spreads tightened materially in Q4 and entered a new, lower range (current coupon to swaps ~135 bps, to treasuries ~110 bps), lowering the incremental return opportunity; management estimates new-deployment returns of roughly 13%–15%, nearer the firm's total cost of capital (~15.8%).
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Quarterly and Annual Returns
Q4 2025 economic return of 11.6% and full-year 2025 economic return of 22.7%; Q4 comprehensive income of $0.89 per common share. Total stock return in 2025 was 34.8% with dividends reinvested, nearly double the S&P 500.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
AGNC’s guidance painted a constructive 2026 outlook with many quantifiable drivers: current‑coupon spreads are viewed in a new range of ~120–160 bps to swaps (around ~135 today) and ~90–130 bps to Treasuries (around ~110), implying portfolio ROEs in the low‑to‑mid teens (~13–15%); normalized net spread and dollar‑roll income was $0.35–$0.36 per share (incl. $0.01 nonrecurring), which on a tangible book value of $8.88 equates to roughly 16% ROE versus a total cost of capital of ~15.8%. They expect to favor swap‑based hedges (hedge ratio 77%; duration‑dollar allocation to swaps up to 70% from 59%), modestly positive duration gap (~0.25–0.75 years, roughly 0.4–0.5 today), and mid‑7x leverage (Q4 close 7.2x, Q4 average 7.4x) while keeping strong liquidity ($7.6bn cash/unencumbered MBS, 64% of tangible equity). Supply/demand metrics: net new Agency MBS supply ~ $200bn in 2026 (private sector to absorb ~ $400bn when combined with Fed runoff), with GSE purchases potentially consuming about half; firm balance‑sheet stats: assets ~$95bn (up ~$4bn Q/Q), hedge notional ~$59bn, 76% of assets with favorable prepayment attributes, weighted average coupon 5.12%, projected‑life CPR 9.6% (up 100 bps from 8.6%; actual CPR 9.7% vs 8.3% prior quarter). Capital actions: issued $356m of common equity in Q4 (≈$2bn for 2025); ATM issuance will remain opportunistic (no ATM issued quarter‑to‑date).AGNC Investment Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
38
Negative
Cash Flow
50
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.91B | 4.88B | 1.01B | 3.30B | 2.41B |
| Gross Profit | 1.91B | 4.88B | 1.01B | 3.30B | 2.41B |
| EBITDA | 4.70B | 3.79B | 2.44B | -565.00M | 824.00M |
| Net Income | 1.67B | 863.00M | 155.00M | -1.19B | 749.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 115.08B | 88.02B | 71.60B | 51.75B | 68.15B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.74B | 505.00M | 518.00M | 2.33B | 1.52B |
| Total Debt | 101.79B | 64.00M | 80.00M | 42.89B | 57.20B |
| Total Liabilities | 102.68B | 78.25B | 63.34B | 43.88B | 57.86B |
| Stockholders Equity | 12.39B | 9.76B | 8.26B | 7.87B | 10.29B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 653.00M | 86.00M | -118.00M | 1.01B | 1.54B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 653.00M | 86.00M | -118.00M | 1.01B | 1.54B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -25.86B | -11.17B | -14.67B | 11.19B | 3.84B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 25.18B | 11.08B | 14.23B | -11.39B | -6.17B |
AGNC Investment Technical Analysis
Negative
10.14
Price Trends
11.03
Negative
10.59
Negative
9.78
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.29
Positive
39.18
Neutral
32.96
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AGNC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 10.14 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.54, below the 50-day MA of 11.03, and above the 200-day MA of 9.78, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.29 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.18 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 32.96 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AGNC.
AGNC Investment Risk Analysis
AGNC Investment disclosed 45 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. AGNC Investment reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
AGNC Investment Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
61 Neutral | $11.39B | 3.06 | 15.10% | 13.98% | 729.50% | -53.65% | |
60 Neutral | $1.48B | 10.61 | 6.83% | 9.89% | 0.29% | ― | |
59 Neutral | $15.38B | 7.05 | 14.13% | 12.40% | 17.14% | ― | |
55 Neutral | $1.96B | 2.34 | 16.65% | 15.06% | -27.55% | -97.87% | |
55 Neutral | $5.14B | 18.11 | 8.35% | 8.95% | -1.07% | 47.50% | |
53 Neutral | $1.07B | 4.43 | 8.85% | 11.40% | 9.46% | -111.44% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
AGNC
AGNC Investment
10.14
1.70
20.09%
NLY
Annaly Capital
21.41
2.43
12.79%
ARI
Apollo Real Estate
10.63
1.54
16.90%
ARR
ARMOUR Residential REIT
16.39
1.65
11.17%
CIM
Chimera Investment
12.86
0.63
5.15%
RITM
Rithm Capital
9.24
-1.64
-15.08%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.