AGNC Investment (AGNC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $12.53B
• Dividend Yield: 13.98%
• Average Volume (3M): 16.68M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 17.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.52
• Revenue Growth: 729.50%
• EPS Growth: -53.65%
• Country: US
• Employees: 53
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: REIT - Mortgage
• EPS (TTM): 0.35
• Shares Outstanding: 1,072,724,100
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 20,080,895
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 16,682,942
• PEG Ratio: <0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.74
• Price to Sales (P/S): 7.42
• P/FCF Ratio: 83.90
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.79
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 9.69
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 9.69
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $10.50
• Price Target Upside: -11.99% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 10
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.58
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $3.82B

• Rating: 65 Neutral
• Price Target: $12.00 ▲(0.59% Upside)

The score is driven by solid financial results (strong profitability, revenue growth, and improving free cash flow) but is constrained by balance-sheet risk from very high leverage and operational pressure implied by negative EBIT margin. Technically, the trend is positive but appears overbought, while valuation is supported by an exceptionally high dividend yield and a moderate P/E.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

AGNC's impressive revenue growth reflects its ability to expand its investment portfolio effectively, enhancing its market position and potential for sustained profitability.

Liquidity Position

A robust liquidity position ensures AGNC can capitalize on investment opportunities and manage financial obligations, supporting long-term stability and growth.

Positive Market Outlook

A constructive market outlook for Agency MBS positions AGNC to benefit from improved spreads and investor sentiment, enhancing its ability to generate attractive returns.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

High leverage increases financial risk, potentially impacting AGNC's ability to weather economic downturns and limiting its financial flexibility.

Economic Return Decline

Declining economic returns indicate challenges in generating sufficient returns on equity, which could affect AGNC's long-term profitability and shareholder value.

Operational Challenges

Operational challenges reflected in a negative EBIT margin suggest inefficiencies that may hinder AGNC's ability to sustain profitability and manage costs effectively.

AGNC Investment Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

AGNC Investment Corp. operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT) in the United States. The company invests in residential mortgage pass-through securities and collateralized mortgage obligations for which the principal and interest payments are guaranteed by the United States government-sponsored enterprise or by the United States government agency. It funds its investments primarily through collateralized borrowings structured as repurchase agreements. The company has elected to be taxed as a REIT under the Internal Revenue Code of 1986 and would not be subject to federal corporate income taxes, if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. The company was formerly known as American Capital Agency Corp. and changed its name to AGNC Investment Corp. in September 2016. AGNC Investment Corp. was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Bethesda, Maryland.

How the Company Makes Money

AGNC generates revenue primarily through the interest income earned on its investment portfolio, which consists mainly of agency mortgage-backed securities. The company employs a leveraged investment strategy, borrowing funds at lower interest rates to purchase MBS, which typically offer higher yields. This interest rate spread, or net interest income, constitutes a significant portion of AGNC's revenue. Additionally, AGNC may engage in hedging activities to manage interest rate risk and may also earn income from sales of securities or from capital appreciation of its portfolio. The company pays out a substantial portion of its earnings as dividends to shareholders, which is a key aspect of its investment appeal. Factors contributing to its earnings include prevailing interest rates, the performance of the housing market, and the overall economic environment.

AGNC Investment Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong TTM profitability and revenue growth support the score, but a negative EBIT margin signals operational pressure. Cash flow is solid with positive free cash flow growth, while very high leverage (debt-to-equity 8.30) remains a key stability risk.

Income Statement

AGNC Investment's income statement shows a strong net profit margin of 92.49% for the TTM, indicating high profitability. However, the EBIT margin is negative, suggesting operational challenges. Revenue growth is impressive at 82.66% TTM, reflecting significant top-line expansion. Despite these strengths, the negative EBIT margin and fluctuating revenue in previous years highlight potential volatility.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 8.30 TTM, indicating significant leverage, which could pose financial risks. Return on equity is modest at 8.06%, showing moderate efficiency in generating returns from equity. The equity ratio is relatively low, suggesting a heavy reliance on debt financing. These factors point to potential financial instability.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows a positive free cash flow growth rate of 31.88% TTM, indicating strong cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is low, suggesting potential issues in converting income into cash. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is stable at 1.0, reflecting consistent cash flow management.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.02B	973.00M	251.00M	-1.12B	837.00M	-173.00M
Gross Profit	1.02B	973.00M	251.00M	-1.12B	837.00M	-173.00M
EBITDA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Net Income	838.00M	863.00M	155.00M	-1.19B	749.00M	-266.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	108.97B	88.02B	71.60B	51.75B	68.15B	81.82B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	450.00M	505.00M	518.00M	2.33B	1.52B	2.32B
Total Debt	58.00M	64.00M	80.00M	42.89B	57.20B	64.27B
Total Liabilities	97.53B	78.25B	63.34B	43.88B	57.86B	70.74B
Stockholders Equity	11.44B	9.76B	8.26B	7.87B	10.29B	11.08B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	604.00M	86.00M	-118.00M	1.01B	1.54B	1.75B
Operating Cash Flow	604.00M	86.00M	-118.00M	1.01B	1.54B	1.75B
Investing Cash Flow	-9.58B	-11.17B	-14.67B	11.19B	3.84B	36.52B
Financing Cash Flow	9.10B	11.08B	14.23B	-11.39B	-6.17B	-37.23B

AGNC Investment Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 11.93
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AGNC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 11.93 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.08, above the 50-day MA of 10.59, and above the 200-day MA of 9.34, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.33 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 81.85 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 96.00 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AGNC.

AGNC Investment Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
AGNC	65 Neutral	$12.53B	17.66	7.94%	13.98%	729.50%	-53.65%
ARI	64 Neutral	$1.40B	11.39	7.26%	9.89%	0.29%	―
NLY	62 Neutral	$16.28B	11.03	10.94%	12.40%	17.14%	―
ARR	61 Neutral	$2.11B	406.48	3.75%	16.45%	-27.55%	-97.87%
RITM	56 Neutral	$6.29B	7.84	10.78%	8.95%	-1.07%	47.50%
CIM	50 Neutral	$1.10B	-32.79	2.10%	11.40%	9.46%	-111.44%